Random thoughts of my own this weekend-
(a) Retire at 65? No way. 70 at the earliest. Maybe 72. They're still underestimating life expectancy for Boomers, IMO.
(b) A 25% market sell-off, especially if it takes the form of a steep dive, would provide financial opportunities beyond entries on the long side. It might also (i) briefly open the window for killer 30-year fixed rates (have your docs ready), and/or (ii) depress housing prices to levels that enable us to pick up bargains even in the Bay Area.
(c) Life in 20 years (at least in the US) will be markedly different than it was 10 years ago. We're never going back to the Roaring Nineties- not in my lifetime.
Hadn't planned it that way, but ended up pretty much retired by age 50. I had always wanted to retire at 55, but the dot com crash, 9/11, and the moving of all production to Asia moved my schedule up on me. The problem is how do you plan when you still have potentially 50 yrs that you have to live off the savings? I saw the advisors saying you might get this return or that, but the reality was if you wanted a guaranteed return, it was much, much lower, down to 4%, now, which is exceeded by the real rate of inflation which is running around +9% currently, on costs, and negative on wages. The Fed is at the same time allowing huge inflation/debasement at the same time as making savings an almost idiotic thing to do with their zero rate policy.
ReplyDeleteI think we come out of this mess sometime after enough boomers have died to get demographics back to normal. Like Japan's 20 yr depression that STILL shows no sign of ending, as long as the excessive debt and deficits exist, there is no hope.
And PS, if you do the numbers, you'll find you can't plan to retire at 65 and live normally if you only have $1 million saved, I'd bet, with rates at 4% or less.
ReplyDeleteagree with you both - $1m sure isn't enough any longer and a certain, gradual(??) decline in the standard of living is upon us.
ReplyDeletenot a pretty picture, esp when you're fifty and looking for a new career!
Well...Let's at least maintain our standard of living through the Sharks game today!! Hopefully it goes 7 games. Then Patricia and I will be able to use her sisters tickets for once.
ReplyDeleteGO SHARKS!!!!
Just saw a report on CNN that BP might be having some success with their attempt are inserting a relief tube into the main pipe. Hope it helps reduce the flow.
ReplyDeleteMetal legend Ronnie James Dio dead at 67
ReplyDeleteHe was a short guy with a voice that was twenty feet tall. And reminded us of the important fact that we are, in fact, the "Last in Line":)
Eat the rich my friends....Eat the rich.
In my angst due to the Sharks loss, I scanned through about 100 chats. Nothing really popped out as must haves, but the over all theme seemed the same. Very serious support about 10% below where they are now.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete