Monday, May 17, 2010
5/18/10 Hey Joe/ Black Tuesday?
Hey Joe, said now
Where you gonna run to now?
Where you gonna run to?
Hey Joe, I said where you gonna run to now?
Where you, where you gonna go?
Well, dig it
I'm goin' way down south,
Way down to Mexico way
Alright!
I'm goin' way down south,
Way down where I can be free
Ain't no one gonna find me
Let's chase this market down. Way down south. Way down to Mexico way.
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Gap up and boogie to the rhythm of the beat.
ReplyDelete2nd- Timely...Just caught this...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4rz8hANhgA
BTW, Good work this morning shooter.
ReplyDeleteWhat's on tap tonight?
ReplyDeleteReflex bounces in Asia, followed by...hell if I know.
The lower it goes, the more buy-and-holders we will take out. If I had gone long around 1100, I'd be a little nervous tonight.
On the other hand, the higher it goes, the more shorts we take out.
ReplyDeleteSometimes it feels like a giant game of chicken.
I have this ugly feeling gnawing at me that its all a distraction so we don't notice that the value of the digits we are accumulating is being debased at a frantic pace. We "feel good" because we are "making money", but when the dollar falls over, its going to make the euro collapse look like a sunny day off in the park, and we are all going to be left holding a pile of worthless paper that nobody else in the world will want. "Not worth a Continental", as George Washington once said.
ReplyDeleteOr, as Abrahman Lincoln said.." Yo, don't give me no stinking wooden nickels bro."
ReplyDeleteOl' Abe sure was a hip dude, Home-skillet!
ReplyDeleteAMSC - Can't believe I'm missed the reversal.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteI don't know why i gave a fundamental assessment of MOS. I don't believe in that crap anymore. Fundys can't explain the tulip mania and cannot explain the shit mania of 07/08. See the cool chart I made. http://fsc.bz/4Kp. Anyway as a trade you can see this thing bouncing to 60 in a San Jose minute. A little consolidation and s3 holding at 45.79 I can see a trade. If the market turns positive and dollar declines. I think if a 30 min bar closes over 47.80 (pivot). I will go long with a 45.70 stop. Why the hell not?
Robear
Georgie boy may have had him a hot rod Lincoln, but Abe could leave him in the dust any day with his Bro-Ham!
ReplyDeletecheapy, yep, I agree the dollar collaspe is coming. question is when?
ReplyDeleteRB- Don't be!! As much as I'd "Like to be like Mike"..err Vad, I like to have a 2 pronged attack working for my trades. TA/Fundies. Having said that, I have no problem scalping when the opp. is presented :)
ReplyDeletevb, like anything else, it zooms high to kill the shorts, because as everyone panics out of euro, they are mostly going into dollars.
ReplyDeleteBut what happens when they realize the US is in worse shape than Greece? All you need to do is add the Fed trillions and the Govt guaranteed Freddie and Fannie trillions to the debt number and it becomes as obvious as Greece that the only way it can even be serviced is by printing more to pay the interest.
I don't think it happens till the euro fears either recede by hook or by crook. Does the UK pound sterling collapse before or after the dollar, I don't know.
Are we now headed for a test of 1150?
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Although Monday's intra-day recovery is a good thing, I don't think we're out of the woods just yet. The indices (and most sectors) still have a Gatekeeper type of appearance--see 10 Best mentioned above or email me if you're short on funds (or cheap..I'm half
kidding!) and I'll send you the pattern.
I still think now is the time to fire off a short or two but only on entries. That, in and of itself, might keep you out of trouble should the slide not continue.
Futures are strong pre-market.
congrats in order to UCO holders. I took the profit way too soon again.
ReplyDeleteCraig- Any idea what Landry means by 'now is the the time fire off a short or two, but only on entries?' What does 'entries' refer to?
ReplyDelete2nd - I don't think this market can go straight down given all of the stimulus in it so we need to pick our short entry points very carefully. the 50 DMA average was a great low risk entry. Not sure about 1150...I think yesterdays reversal was stronger than people give it credit for and why I decided to move money into the SPY index in my long only account...
ReplyDeleteOCLS might be open for a ride today.
ReplyDeleteWas too antsy last night. Was wanting to add 2 screens to the tradestation side of my system, and the UCO was via TS, so shutting down would have left me in the dark if anything had occurred. As it turned out, I could only get 4 of the USB video adapters to work at a time, max, so it looks like I'm limited to 10 screens on that machine. So I ended up moving the one I stole from my thinkorswim machine back, leaving it at 7 screens. I moved the spare 22" LCD into the array, replacing the 2nd laptop which wasn't getting used often, anyway. It was a shame to be wasting screen real estate in the center of the array, because that's the easiest to see. I think I'll end up rigging the 2 center screens with TS and TOS views of the same stock or etf, that being the current trade, because my buy/sell indicators are better on TOS, but I have many more timeframes, views and charts for each on TS. Combined, I'm hoping for a little edge or more edge, basically just looking for a little more safe spread between entry and exit.
ReplyDeleteI was busy last night also Cheapy...Cleaned up the kids room :)
ReplyDeleteForget OCLS...no volume.
ReplyDeleteUNG sure as hell looks like a strong buy to me, technically speaking.
ReplyDeleteWell, Europe is flying (indicating they've regained some confidence) sooooo......
ReplyDeleteMade $700 simply by buying VXX/TZA at the open in a detached manner, and returning to the PC a half hour later.
ReplyDeleteCheapy you have two computers with 17 total screens?!!!. That amazes me. I can only play about three bingo cards max. Also I was wondering because I was thinking of getting multiple screens. Why dont people just get a 50" lcd tv and divide up the screen into different tiles say 6. two middle ones broker and level 2. One side watch list and charts. Other side breaking news andwhat ever.
ReplyDeleteBob
I think Bob monitors prices/technicals on two screens, and keeps track of his sports bets on the other 15.
ReplyDeleteYou can never have too many screens:)
ReplyDeleteSold my GCI calls for a $500 profit. Will use some of that for my upcoming vacation this week to Georgia. Speaking of which, does anyone know of good tourist spots to visit in Savannah and Atlanta?
ReplyDelete2nd...You should have stayed out a couple more hours:)
ReplyDeleteDid you guys read Halsey Minor's going broke and is selling his art collection? Oh, how the mighty have fallen. He was spending like a bb player with a sneaker contract:)...Like M.C. Hammer with a line of credit......
at the moment, its 3 machines and 18 screens. the other 2 machines and screens are in dry dock as spares on the other side of the room.
ReplyDeletemy 22" lcd (1600 x 1050) screens cost under $140 ea, and the mounts for the upper row were about $8 ea, so that's much, much cheaper than buying 3 or 4 huge screens.
to be honest I don't make full use of the setup, but as time goes by, it improves as I tweak things.
Team I was just in Atlanta. They have a huge botanical garden and the biggest aquarium in the world.(they claim). Perfect for someone from SD. Can't see too many fish. THey do have a zip line deally outside of Atlanta. Where you fly on the lines in a harness over the soutern jungle below. Scary.
ReplyDeleteBob
2nd, this screen i'm typing on is the only one not completely dedicated to the market. Its a serious game for me because I don't have a job or other income anymore, and the wife being laid off means we no longer have company paid health or dental coverage.
ReplyDeleteI thought about buying TZA in mid 5.80's off the bottom, and now wish I had. That, it appears was this morning's easy trade.
BTW how does an etf like TZA work? Do they actually go out and short smallcaps or are we betting on a cockroach race?
ReplyDeleteSGEN- Gap fill and breaking out. Man, I left a lot on the table in that one.
ReplyDeleteHere is the place for the zip line I did not get to do it but all the locals raved about it.
ReplyDeleteBob
http://www.historicbanningmills.com/canopy.html
How low do we have to go for a stink bid in V??
ReplyDeleteRB- That looks like a blast!!
ReplyDeleteThat's an ugly little reversal today...let's see if it holds.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link RoBear. Looks like fun, but I'm not sure the woman would be down.
V might be finding support here all the way back to Oct.
ReplyDeleteGL guys, ciao.
ReplyDeleteAtlanta - You could go check out Stone Mountain on the east side:
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stone_Mountain
I recommend visiting the famous Fox Theater downtown. You'll catch Neil Young there, he's playing 5/29 @8:00pm:
http://www.ticketmaster.com/venueartist/114694/736511?brand=fabulousfox
You might shoot the hooch:
http://www.shootthehooch.com/
As an added bonus I'd invite you over to my place but I don't live there anymore...
Ouch, the beat is still a restless one...
ReplyDelete"JUNEAU, Alaska – Bristol Palin is hitting the speakers' circuit and will command between $15,000 and $30,000 for each appearance, Palin family attorney Thomas Van Flein said Monday."
ReplyDeleteSick fucking world.
Is China Dead? What about Rino?
ReplyDeleteshark - seriously...who would pay to see this girl talk?
ReplyDeleteRINO earnings miss? 6 month trend has been down, how far/long will it go?
ReplyDeleteDied in the wool republicans might, fanaticism has no limits.
ReplyDeleteIt's dyed, not died, Chicken.
ReplyDeleteWhat's going on today brotha?
Who would pay.....Girl Scouts? Whenever the Girl Scouts (read paramilitary government snitches-in-waiting) try to sell me boxes of cookies, I always say I will as soon as they let all the little lesbian girls into the scouts who want to be scouts. At this point the parents usually give me the most hateful look imaginable, as I smile warmly and walk away. I'm just that kind of guy.
ReplyDeleteWho would pay? Maybe some kind of junior Nascar event, possibly involving idiot sons of idiot sons and people whose idea of a good drive is taking a left for 70 laps:)
Maybe there's some coalition of unmarried teenage mothers down south who would enjoy being regaled by stories of late night diaper runs, the truth about Levi Johnston, and advice about avoiding spreading STD's. In fairness, Johnston, the boyfriend is also making a big buck out of this shameful fiasco. Remember, we're talking about underage premarital sex here. This is SUPPOSED to be shameful stuff, until you get the material into the hands of our finest actors, who act as though they have no shame.
Like I said, it's a sick world. But hey....Functionally lliterate teenagers on the lecture circuit? In this right-wing fascist redneck paradise we call the United States, that's about par for the course.
People are SO DAMN ignorant.
If they're that sick it could be died in the wool.....
ReplyDeleteSo all you have to do is be a floozy Alaskan bimbo that get's knocked up and you can go out on the speaking circuit? WHAT on earth will she talk about? I already know how to not use condoms.
Dyed, yes of course. Freudian slip or half asleep, not sure.
ReplyDeleteBTW apparantly my info is a little out of date. According to my latest research, the Girl Scouts are now "down on the muffin", both charter-wise as well as in practice, even to the point where right wing ideologues are now accusing the G.S's of PROMOTING said lifestyle choice.
ReplyDeleteOh btw...a word or two on this quiet day about FM radio censorship...an issue I'm sure 2nd, our virtual d.j. thinks an awful lot about. Speaking of D.j.'s BTW Skribble is my mom's brother's grandkid. Cool, huh?
So why on earth is it ok for Billy Idol to sing
"Last night a little angel
came pumping 'cross my floor" (Rebel Yell)
Uncensored as to sleazy content, but in a totally different context, it is not ok for Pink Floyd to sing
"Don't give me that
Do goody-good bullshit" (Money)
which is inoffensive except for the use of the word "bullshit". Only problem is, the word "bullshit" is a fully accepted staple of our lexicon, understood and generally accepted by everybody. It's a word your kids have heard before and used themselves. So why the hypocritical censorship, bleeping in one case and not the other?
Scalped another $300 on VXX.
ReplyDeleteThat's all I can do these days. Quick trade when I have a few minutes...
Hm... Interesting... My expectation of a small bounce today did work out. I sold some TWM yesterday at an "impulse" at $19.05, without waiting for it to hit my sell limit order at $21.50, and placed a buy limit order for these shares at $18.25. The buy limit was hit this morning. Just now, I saw TWM at $18.90 and sold these 100 shares once again, at another "impulse," and placed a buy limit order for them at $18. Let's see for how long I'll be able to keep doing this. :)
ReplyDelete2nd - $300 is a VERY NICE dinner.
ReplyDeleteSchweddy Balls versus Dusty Muffin...
ReplyDeleteI say embrace your Dusty Muffin!
UCO in trouble...
ReplyDeleteCheapy...Let's see if we can get WTIC to 68.
ReplyDeleteE&P guys doing well in light of the tape...finding a footing?
Yep, I got stopped out of my UCO for a 3% loss. That was quick. Looked so promising. Sold ung for 7% of slow profit. Wish I could day trade looks like a lot of opportunity out there. Damn Job.
ReplyDeleteanother turnaround day just to f*ck with everyone?
ReplyDeleteI guess it's not inconceivable V wont find support until 66.50.
ReplyDeletePAL really about to break support line IMO.
ReplyDeleteDownside target...$2.30
TZA gettin' the job done....watch and learn the perils of taking profits:)
ReplyDeleteI'd definitely pick up some PAL if it were to hit $2.30, it sure is beat to hell already!
ReplyDeleteIt won't get there of course....
ReplyDeletePAL 200 day is at 3...betcha it does go there:)
Not today probably, but I would buy there.
PAL 200 at 3?? I have 3.50sma 3.66ema.
ReplyDeleteSSO @ 38.32.
ReplyDeleteSSO off at 38.61 for 300.
ReplyDeleteWell I will be sure to apprise all the lemmings who (may) panic out exactly which support levels you've calculated so that they'll know where to throw in the towel:)
ReplyDeleteOh I get your point. Yes, the 200 day is not, as I had said around 3, that's the 300. The 200 is around 3.5
ReplyDeleteSharkie - Are you trading around the 300 again?
ReplyDeleteWow, the U$D has done a moonshot! TBT/TMV were crushed...
ReplyDeleteSilly me for thinking we'd close green today...
ReplyDeletecp- We may in fact close green today. That would set up a real dilemma for me- bears failing twice to get some momentum going...
ReplyDeleteI still like PX here even though it's gained $0.80 from when I was looking at it yesterday.
ReplyDeleteJust turned on CNBC and heard nothing but negativity...I'm sorry but I just don't buy the theory that the action the past few days means the Euro region is screwed. To me it seems like the market is trying to test the bottom from 2 fridays ago.
ReplyDeleteI now think PAL may fall to something like the 3.25 level, previous support but not a ma. We will have to see how the deterioration in Germany develops, but it sounds to me like they are having a credit bust like we did a couple of years ago. Could be more damage to come in Europe and yes, here.
ReplyDeleteCall it "son of credit crisis"
pain central here. a month or so back I was going to re-allocate my holdings but chose not to and now i am paying for it big time.
ReplyDeletejust moved another 1/3 of my cash in my long only account into the market at the close (50% SPY and 50% emerging markets). i now have 2/3 of market in those accounts and 1/3 in cash.
ReplyDeleteUNG came within a penny of hitting my sell limit order at $7.80 and then crashed. I guess I'll have to wait for a few more days. :)
ReplyDeleteI suppose we must've burned through the stimulus...
ReplyDeleteDavid - You seem to have tremendous command over market prices...
ReplyDeleteSSO @ 37.96. Stop 36.84 :)
ReplyDeleteI keep wondering if people are over-reacting. I mean, lets look at some key indicators of economic activity and bank lending, the BDI Index and the TED Spread:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND
While the TED spread has increased significantly, look at it in a 3 year time frame. Its currently not even 1/2% and it's less than 1/10th of the peak in the Fall of 2008. I mean, are we over reacting here?
The CEO of HPQ just said that one of the things he saw in Europe was STRENGTH...and strength across all regions. That's a different note than all of the bears out on TV are voicing and makes me wonder if the bears are just getting their 2 minutes and trying to exacerbate a situation where there is hightened fear.
Don't people ever stop to wonder why there is usually a crap load of bears out talking when the markets have a lot of fear in them and bulls out talking when the markets have a lot of complacency in them?
I don't know, maybe I'm just crazy and ignoring the market at my own peril, buying when I hear nothing but negativity and when the fear index (usually a contrarian indicator) is at a yearly high.
TOF- Seems to me we have a pretty easy technical trade here. Either we hold the 200 here, our we get stopped out and the Feb. low of 1043 comes into play.
ReplyDeleteIf Natty can break it's triple top here, 4.80 seems reasonable.
ReplyDeleteTOF - Isn't it possible the reaction isn't all about Europe or the global economy, but that's what's being sold for some unknown reason?
ReplyDeleteI suspect the Volcker ruling and financial regulatory package Congress is (reluctantly?) working on has a hand in what's going on. Where are the news reports on this subject????
Chatted with X+3B today. He has a target on BAC of 14.40ish. Not shorting, but thinks that's a great entry point for a LT hold.
ReplyDeleteOnly .21 to go for oil @ 68. UCO should be lower than 9.33 though.
ReplyDeleteUCO now back to the July low...If it doesn't hold here, next support is the May low of 6.80. Feb. 09 low was 5.76.
ReplyDeleteMark - I agree and that's part of the reason why I'm going long here. The other is that the earnings / economic reports that are coming out are still quite bullish for stocks.
ReplyDeleteThis might lend support to Jeremy Grantham's thesis that a decent, but not too strong recovery will mean more government support and another year or so of gains in the markets until the SHTF.
Well, the RSI(7) dipped to around 20 on 5/7, and bounced back through 30, so if we continue downward then that indicator would have failed us. A close this week of 1142 and/or a close higher than the open tomorrow would provide some level of comfort.
ReplyDeleteFutures looking fugly.
ReplyDelete"David - You seem to have tremendous command over market prices..."
ReplyDeleteCP, if I had real command over the prices, I would have pushed UNG a penny higher and had it hit my sell limit order. :)
"Futures looking fugly."
ReplyDeleteTOF: large moves in one direction are prone to major reversals, so we may well have a reversal soon and a major up day tomorrow. Let's wait and see what the market brings us, and then respond accordingly. In every crisis there is an opportunity for those who keep their heads clear.
TOF- Why Georgia?
ReplyDeleteIndeed David...that's kind of why I think people are losing their cool with the European crisis. A lot of what I'm reading suggests that the actual economy is not crapping the bed over there, contrary to what the stock market is saying...
ReplyDeleteDavid, or perhaps if would've set your order a penny higher, the price would've reached an even $8 to the cent!
ReplyDeleteWhat we've got here is a penny obstructing the progress of making a dollar.
David- Good point. Besides, there's no volume behind the move in ES right now.
ReplyDeleteOf course futures are ugly, the bears are drooling allover themselves right now!
ReplyDeleteMark - It's not just "Georgia", it's "Hotlanta"!
ReplyDeleteDon't forget the Sharks game tonight guys. 7:00pst.
ReplyDeleteMan, the attack ads for the Ca. gov. race is getting really nasty. How pathetic.
CP- Yeah, I know. Played a national playoff match there. No thanks.
ReplyDeleteTOF- My tech. client would back up you assertion about the Euro-zone.
ReplyDeleteJB- You agree?
Ever heard of the Hotlanta Squares gay and lesbian square dance club?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.iagsdc.org/hotlanta/
CP- That's the team we played. Kicked our ass :)
ReplyDeleteSGG- Finally bottomed? I think so. Besides, I like singing that song while trading.
ReplyDeleteMark - I am going to a wedding and visiting family out there.
ReplyDeleteMy friend that works in the tech industry says his company is raising internal budget goals because of customer strength. His company is also planning on hiring back to pre 2008 levels by the end of the summer, for what its worth. Their customers include the biggest tech companies in the world.
Hey, after enjoying the Neil Young solo concert at the Fox, TOF could jump in the Westin Peachtree elevator and take in the city panarama while having a nice juicy steak and lobster dinner at the Sun Dial revolving restaurant!
ReplyDeletehttp://stoesser.blogspot.com/2007/06/sun-dial-restaurant-westin-tower.html
Sorry, wrong link:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sundialrestaurant.com/
Seeing a little volume in the ES now right at S1 (1106.75). Which way it breaks might tell us something.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Cool! Have a great time. CP seems to have your itinerary covered :)
Mark, which team were you playing?
ReplyDeleteAtlanta Fudge Packers
Atlanta Titans
BJ Roosters
Crimper's Razors
Georgia Mudcats
Muddawgs
The Pride
WetDemons
Woofs Pounders
http://www.hotlantasoftball.org/teams.php
Now there is some real trading going on in the ES, 1000 contracts/min. That's a lot for this time of day.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteCP- It was Rugby, and the team was Atlanta Leather and Feathers. One bunch of tough SOB's.
ReplyDelete