I love the lie and lie the love A-Hangin' on for a push above ’82 is the motivation That is hangin' up our generation Looks like we always end up in a rut Tryin' to make it real — compared to what?
Slaughterhouse is killing ‘hogs’ Twisted markets boiling frogs Poor J6P starting logs Dollar-cost averaging into dogs I hate the talking heads, that stinking smut (I can't use it!) Try to make it real — compared to what?
Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
Re: Dow theory sell signal - CONFIRMED Submitted by 2nd_ave (4423 comments) on Thu, 05/20/2010 - 20:08 #63326 (in reply to #63322) Any idea whether/how the DJIA/DJTA sell signal informed trading in '87?
I usually check the buying on weakness/selling on strength data in the WSJ. I've never seen it like today. The selling on strength was almost all 2 or 3X ETF's. Normally, those account for 2-5%ish. The buying on weakness was a more traditional mix of stocks and ETF's.
In case tomorrow is the last day of this "sale" (after people see that Fed has increased the AMB tonight), I decided to lower my sell limit order on 1 SPY June $117 put to $12 (3X the purchase price). I wanted to set the sell limit order at $14 for the other put and at $16 for the last one, but OptionsHouse is not letting me do this now for some reason.
"The selling on strength was almost all 2 or 3X ETF's."
Mark, do you mean *inverse* ETFs? If so, that means that people have finally figured out that these should be traded rather than held for a long time, and saw this correction as a great opportunity to get out of their stale ultrashorts. Also, people still don't believe that this correction is the start of a new downtrend.
I don't think the selling is over. To be honest, I wasn't 'tracking' the market all day. But I can't say I sensed the kind of panic that needs to be present for a bottom to be put in. We didn't even break 10000.
Mark - FYI, I'm not sure I'm totally getting your shorthand... but that's okay, I'm too tired right now anyway. I nearly didn't say anything... or didn't nearly say anything or something like that.
2nd- I don't either, but I did see what I thought was some panic selling in the stuff I follow. I'm "hoping" we get a Monday close that is ugly. That would of course indicate to me MF holders placed sell orders over the weekend. I would buy into such a scenario.
In the same way none of us 'expected' a sell-off today (in fact, I'm on record as saying I expected a rally into Friday), none of us here seem to expect a crash tomorrow. So it may arrive tomorrow.
The price action of late really can't be called a correction....as it has been some of the nastiest, most punitive price action I've seen....
Stocks are getting pummelled. Attempts to buy the bottom continue to fail as the bottom has not disceribly been put in.
People are acting like just because a few bazookie playing souvlaki salesmen may be out of a job that all we've seen and biult upon this year was a pile of sand in a stiff wind, and I don't believe that. I am already hearing from people that it's "over" for good for stocks and shit like that. Hogwash!
WHEN the bottom is in, whether that was today or in 3 months, this will be, as it always was, a great buying opportunity.
Every day I lose about a hundred bucks trying to find a bottom with both hands, not my own:)
I am getting sick of this and am thinking that it would be money better spent in restaurants, which PROBABLY means the bottom is near.
Low beta: Try Laclede Gas (LG). Around zero. One of the oldest companies still on the NYSE. Y = 4.7%. I bought today near close. Have been in and out as a safe haven over time. I lived in STL for 43 years before returning to Illinois. Company has very good fundamentals.
2nd- Your not alone. On days like this I like to see what BC and TK have to say. TK LOST 2% today. BC took the time to make note of a trade that went his way. Shorting the miners/metals. "Proof of the concept..." Nice. I think the last one was about 6 moths ago when he sold RIMM .01 below the high, and a bad report the next day.
FWIW and in case no one's noticed, GMO is about a gnat's butt away from entering into that big gap up. The way I see it, I might just get a chance to load up in the 2's...
I think commodities might be getting crushed because China's been balking at high iron ore prices and such. The word is probably out they're not going to buy if governmental taxation goes through (Australia is proposing stiff mining tax).
Glad I planned for this... even though I didn't really think it would happen, that article from last night apparently raised many an eyebrow and now it's being realized.
China is the second largest global economy and might be on the way to #1 if we keep screwing off, why we don't follow them more closely I can't figure out....
Well, for anyone who wanted to buy PAL with a "2" handle, you'll get your chance tomorrow. I'm just not at all convinced that it's a good idea. I do know that when the mass psychology swings back to not-bearish there is a LOT of money to be made long.
Obama has oil all over his legs and arms on this one...In fact, he looks a little like a befouled waterbird! Barack is doing the funky chicken yo. yo yo yo.
You all know about the trial I served on. The murder was in a pretty dicey area here. I don't know about hair, but damn, meth raises hell on the teeth.
or we could have just bought TZA on Monday and gone on a freaking vacation...Hey you know, in any market phase there is that one trade, the one that's so right that you don't need to watch it, don't need to dick around with it.
This week that's been the TZA. I sat there at 6 and would have bought it, except for having read somewhere that you shouldn't hold those suckers overnight. Oh well.
Yeah I know but I'm not talking about last year. By the time of the March lows we were all like deer in the headlights, unable to act on the long side for what seemed like an eternity. I had a hard time buying into the rally....which is why it was such a good rally, right?
Hey 2nd....How turned out to be right, you or your wife? I don't recall?
Is your kid still in C? Better there than PAL eh?
Have a good weekend my friend. I am planning on panicking out of my stock in the first half hour and then going for a walk in the woods:)
Neither one of us turned out to be 'right.' Both of us decided to clear the table (including the 8-year-old's) after the May 6 drop. The 400 point rally the day after was like a gift, and we didn't want to look a gift horse in the mouth, as they say.
I think I posted a comment saying the crash had already happened, and it was just a matter of time before investors 'caught up' to it. Well, here we are...
Bob...I have to say....The stock market will no longer be thought of as a good place to make money...Wall Street is a totally discredited industry....Government are traitors to our founding documents, a nascent homegrown Nazi party is up and running and receiving plenty of mainstream press coverage and even winning elections.....
Bro I never thought I'd live long enough to see this happening to my country.
I'm off to Kentucky for a clinic. I'm going to leave you with Landry's words of wisdom. "The second mouse get's the cheese."
Except for CHSCP I'm all in cash. Got my stops set and I'll be back Tuesday evening. THAT of course means we hit a major bottom in the next three trading sessions while I'm at about 35,000 feet. Heck and dang, I really want to get a buy in on TBT too.....
"Stocks plummeted, looking for bottoms as fears of an encore economic recession emanating from Europe brought stock sellers out in droves. The DJIA fell a whopping 376 points to close at 10,068. The market indices have fallen through important support levels as the SmarTrend® indicators still seek bottoms from which to rally."
They are just cleaning everyone out. Bears, then bulls, then bears again. Everyone getting fucked royally. Everyone cleaned out to where they lose all faith.
Merkel - Wasn't that the goofy black dude with hiked-up floods and suspenders who used to play on comedy TV? What the heck was the name of that show....???
I see that the market did pull a feeble attempt at a rally today, after learning about the AMB increase last night. It started with a gap down, though, and during that gap 1 SPY June $117 put hit its sell limit order at 3X the purchase price ($12). Now I have 2 June $114 puts and 2 June $117 puts all with a 0 cost basis. Now I can relax and not worry about losing money on these option purchases (statistics shows that I almost always make money when I create and *sell* new puts). Time to turn my attention to scaling out of my remaining ultrashorts.
OK, now that it looks like I won't get stopped out on my TZA trade, I am canceling my stop order and instead placing another sell limit order at $7.80 for 500 shares I picked up at $7.60, and at $7.90 for the last 500 shares purchased at $7.60.
I spoke too soon and the TZA momentum reversed once again. So I canceled the sell limit orders at $7.80 and $7.90 (for now) and, consistent with the rule of not letting a profit turn into a loss, placed a sell stop limit order at $7.60/7.59 for 1000 shares I picked up at $7.60.
OK, got stopped out at $7.60 from my original purchase, flat. Now I only have 500 shares riding that I added at $7.54, and I placed a sell stop limit order for them at $7.54/7.53.
Yep, I'm gonna wait for some clear TA sig's before making any moves, this still could go either way and I'm done with guessing cause that just doesn't work for me.
Interesting observation from David Rosenberg today:
"We went back to 1946 and never found a time when the stock market (S&P 500) corrected this much in the so-called “sweet spot” of the cycle (the time between the end of the recession and the first Fed rate hike). The most it has ever gone down in this positive part of the “investment clock” was 3%."
"What is “normal” is that during the “sweet spot” period, the equity market is up 15% from the lows, not 80%. Depending on whether you calculate the 15% off the first low in November 2008 or the second low in March 2009, it would not be a stretch to see this market trade down to below 900 on the S&P500 before the interim low is turned in. In this latest phase, the steepest advance was 30%, which would therefore mean, if you want to be early at calling the low, a test of the 870 to 975 range would be your band in which to scale back in."
OK, I just got stopped out at $7.54 for the last 500 shares of TZA I purchased at $7.54.
In the past, I would have to pay at least $100 for the fun of day trading (as the market would quickly move against me and hit my stop without letting my trade move into the positive territory), but today it was a free fun for me. I guess the market character has indeed changed. :)
Looks like the rule of "not letting a profit turn into a loss" saved me from some major trouble on my large intraday TZA trade. I guess stops ARE really necessary during day trading with large positions.
I wonder why there is such a large discrepancy between HNUZF and HNU.TO. I remember very recently that they were almost the same. Maybe there is an arbitrage opportunity here? I have a buy limit order at $4.80 for HNUZF, which should get triggered on Monday. After that, I'll be ready for yet another ride up in NGas. :)
hey everyone - hope you are all doing well this week. i see the market has stabilized a bit here. my call that yesterday was the low was possibly a day off??? the low of today was just above the February lows and if they hold then its still a series of higher lows. I have a bunch of free cash available on Monday and will be looking to build long positions in some quality stocks that look cheap, particularly GOOG. I'm not sure what is going on with that but it looks too good to pass up on.
As I thought a little about the reasons for today's EOD moonshot, I figured that it was most likely due to profit taking by the bears after an amazingly good week for them, as opposed to the market sniffing out some real development this weekend that might put an end to this correction. So I just bought AH 100 shares of SKF at $21.15.
TBT - Good point Mark, it's rather doubtful rates can get much lower from here.
GMO - Kinda went into the stratusphere for a little while today, was temptempted to sell and buy back wish I woulda'... Still think it's headed up some from here, maybe I'll buy into Monday's low if there is one, for a quick scalp.
Ordered my son an HP laptop for his graduation, today.
With shipping and 10% tax was $350 for a 2.1ghz x 2 Duo with 15.4" screen, 4gb mem, 250gb drive and a legit copy of Win7. I'm amazed how cheap computers have gotten. His Mom was worried that it didn't have a built in webcam till I explained that its not a Mac where the upgrades for a webcam would have cost over $400 like they wanted to add one to my Daughter's Macbook. LOL, it was more a question of did you want the cheap $5 webcam, or the $25 one.
The TBT chart indeed looks inviting. I think the moonshot in Treasuries is due to people dumping European debt and switching to the US debt. However, once this initial influx of buyers ends, who else will be left to buy? Only sellers will remain, and a large pullback in Treasuries will result. I just bought 200 shares of TBT at $39.18.
I just realized an order I placed this morning and left for dead was filled. Final 1/3 of my SSO in the IRA filled at 35.29.
Full position now for me @ and average of 37.58. Since this is in a no margin account I'll let it play out. Otherwise the funds will be frozen until settled. Make that mistake once and got a nasty letter from Schwab :)
Banks post best profit in two years, FDIC says. S&P companies have announced $4.4B in combined dividend increases: Safeway hikes quarterly dividend by 20%.
I'm beginning to think this wasn't just a dead cat bounce.
I loved the way the market closed today. I did re-load some xtra PAL into the close and am carrying a "full position" (for me) over the weekend. For 3 bucks and change, at the 300 day MA, with two days' action strongly suggestive of a bottom, with the dow up almost all day today and closing real well, and with a permanent stop somewhere in the high 2's, I am guessing we are headed back up toward the opening range (of the year). I will TRY to hold this position for maybe the rest of the year, I think it was that historic an buying oppty in this stock today.
Have a great weekend everybody, I hope you all get lucky, and I don't mean in a stock:)
CP- I'm happy with my chunk of GMO. 5K shares. Between that and PAL, 5K shares, I've got plenty of exposure in that area. I'd love to add TBT and HEK to the mix. I honestly don't think it will take that long to be proven right or wrong here for me. We had a real test here, or we correct further, and I'm screwed!!
Oh crap, you've only got 5k shares? So it wasn't you this morning saving the day after all! ;) Whew, that makes me sad to think I didn't buy and glad to know it's not the two of us holding the market up.
Yea, I'm still gonna wait for Monday's open before buying....
Yes, CP a rwdvd and just about everything but a webcam. I bought a webcam separately for $6.50 shipped since the post, and I guess I'll need to buy him a printer too, since he'll be off at school with it.
The nice thing is that if I don't like how its setup, I have a dvd and drivers for it, so can just reload. Since the drive is so big, I just may set it up with a dual boot for Win 7 or Linux. I'm a true blue MSFT hater, LOL, but he should see them both and get to choose which he wants to use. I will set it up with Open Office on both so he can put his documents on flashdrive and open/edit/print with either o/s without any trouble like I do. I told him if he wants MS Office, it has to come out of HIS pocket. LOL, I know he won't actually buy it unless he absolutely NEEDS it to do something. It might happen, but I hope not. He'll probably end up a creative-technician/engineer like me because its in his blood, but I'm not going to tell him that. He'll figure it out, I'm sure...
Raccoon land, how funny! They like cat food by the way but they'll knock you garbage cans over. I used to have to keep mine(cans) fenced until I moved to the sticks, these raccoons don't have the faintest idea of what a garbage can is and they leave it alone.
cheapy - I'm a MS hater as well, along with Intel. I still have a choice with CPU(AMD all the way, nothing else, at my peril if necessary) but MS's still got LINUX shut out.
Raccoons are one of the worst rabies offenders stay away from them, keep your dog vaccinated. Someone near here claimed they saw a rabid fox around a month back, but I'm not sure if they weren't pulling my leg trying to scare me or something.
Ya see, I helped AMD kick Intel's ass back in the late 80's(100MHZ breakthrough!), we were only able to do it b/c they befriended us.
Dealing with Intel was the most difficult chore I've ever had, they constantly try their best to screw you over and they broke my spirit after 2 years hammering away 20 hour days 6 day weeks trying to help them.
I'm a nonconformist at heart.... my way or the highway if you want the job done, not a machine and no military lick my boots crap.
Was just looking for a low beta, slow, safe, trade...Any of you guys follow ACH? :)
ReplyDelete'low beta, slow, safe, trade'
ReplyDeleteComic books.
Stamps.
ReplyDeleteYeah, my kids like to trade these tiny little eraser things. I wonder if I can game them...
ReplyDeleteYM broke 10,000, but is now 10,011.
ReplyDeleteToday is the first day I'm seeing the market be the led story in the news. Interesting.
You can probably game them with some of that phunny green paper you've got.
ReplyDeleteToyota/Tesla have come to some deal...
ReplyDeleteHmmm...I'm surprised. Akio Toyota is doing the announcement.
ReplyDeleteDCI is low beta...
ReplyDeleteRe: Dow theory sell signal - CONFIRMED
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4423 comments) on Thu, 05/20/2010 - 20:08 #63326 (in reply to #63322)
Any idea whether/how the DJIA/DJTA sell signal informed trading in '87?
I usually check the buying on weakness/selling on strength data in the WSJ. I've never seen it like today. The selling on strength was almost all 2 or 3X ETF's. Normally, those account for 2-5%ish. The buying on weakness was a more traditional mix of stocks and ETF's.
ReplyDeleteIn case tomorrow is the last day of this "sale" (after people see that Fed has increased the AMB tonight), I decided to lower my sell limit order on 1 SPY June $117 put to $12 (3X the purchase price). I wanted to set the sell limit order at $14 for the other put and at $16 for the last one, but OptionsHouse is not letting me do this now for some reason.
ReplyDelete"The selling on strength was almost all 2 or 3X ETF's."
ReplyDeleteMark, do you mean *inverse* ETFs? If so, that means that people have finally figured out that these should be traded rather than held for a long time, and saw this correction as a great opportunity to get out of their stale ultrashorts. Also, people still don't believe that this correction is the start of a new downtrend.
I don't think the selling is over. To be honest, I wasn't 'tracking' the market all day. But I can't say I sensed the kind of panic that needs to be present for a bottom to be put in. We didn't even break 10000.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Yes, they were inverse.
ReplyDeleteMark - FYI, I'm not sure I'm totally getting your shorthand... but that's okay, I'm too tired right now anyway. I nearly didn't say anything... or didn't nearly say anything or something like that.
ReplyDeleteHey guys - I've got these five paintings I need to unload, know any decent art dealers?
ReplyDelete2nd- I don't either, but I did see what I thought was some panic selling in the stuff I follow. I'm "hoping" we get a Monday close that is ugly. That would of course indicate to me MF holders placed sell orders over the weekend. I would buy into such a scenario.
ReplyDeleteCP- Sorry, what post of mine are you referring to? The stuff about Tesla/Toyota?
ReplyDeleteIt's okay, don't worry about it I don't have the mental fortitude at the moment to figure it out, probably me not you... The post on leveraged ETF's.
ReplyDeleteMonday? Why not Friday?
ReplyDeleteIn the same way none of us 'expected' a sell-off today (in fact, I'm on record as saying I expected a rally into Friday), none of us here seem to expect a crash tomorrow. So it may arrive tomorrow.
CP- it's OK to admit you're stoned out of your mind.
ReplyDeleteHey guys,
ReplyDeleteA few observations....
The price action of late really can't be called a correction....as it has been some of the nastiest, most punitive price action I've seen....
Stocks are getting pummelled. Attempts to buy the bottom continue to fail as the bottom has not disceribly been put in.
People are acting like just because a few bazookie playing souvlaki salesmen may be out of a job that all we've seen and biult upon this year was a pile of sand in a stiff wind, and I don't believe that. I am already hearing from people that it's "over" for good for stocks and shit like that. Hogwash!
WHEN the bottom is in, whether that was today or in 3 months, this will be, as it always was, a great buying opportunity.
Every day I lose about a hundred bucks trying to find a bottom with both hands, not my own:)
I am getting sick of this and am thinking that it would be money better spent in restaurants, which PROBABLY means the bottom is near.
CP- Here is the link I was referring to...
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_h_usshl
Pass the bong if your finally done with it :)
Low beta: Try Laclede Gas (LG). Around zero. One of the oldest companies still on the NYSE. Y = 4.7%. I bought today near close. Have been in and out as a safe haven over time. I lived in STL for 43 years before returning to Illinois. Company has very good fundamentals.
ReplyDeleteHere ya go MArk....
ReplyDeletegurglegurglegurglegurglegurgle.....................
The '2 percent' club in Asia is now the '3 percent' club.
ReplyDelete2nd- Your not alone. On days like this I like to see what BC and TK have to say. TK LOST 2% today. BC took the time to make note of a trade that went his way. Shorting the miners/metals. "Proof of the concept..." Nice. I think the last one was about 6 moths ago when he sold RIMM .01 below the high, and a bad report the next day.
ReplyDeleteouch, i just looked at my acct. please pass the bong
ReplyDeleteSharks....Thanks bro....phweeeeee....
ReplyDeleteSorry Miss...here ya' go...
ReplyDeleteHow the hell did TK end up losing 2%?
ReplyDeleteFWIW and in case no one's noticed, GMO is about a gnat's butt away from entering into that big gap up. The way I see it, I might just get a chance to load up in the 2's...
ReplyDeleteCrap CP...do you always have to bogart the last joint...
ReplyDeleteok cp, i'll jump on board gmo in the am. I need to catch a big wave
ReplyDelete2nd- I watched the video he put out today. Covered his shorts yesterday and was net long.
ReplyDeleteCP- I have noticed, and watch it like a hawk, but thanks.
Ya know, I think a lot of the catalyst for the selling was actually the oil spill, which happened on april 20, 2nd's birthday.
ReplyDelete2nd we were real stunads not going short BP at the time of the spill. Look at the chart.
how ironic 2nds birthday - yep, the signs were everywhere
ReplyDeleteOh my God it's happening again....Commodities getting CRUSHED.
ReplyDeleteA luckless gold long can't catch a break.
I really think I am going to get a really great lunch tomorrow:)
Dude - Say no more, here ya go...
ReplyDeleteso what's next?
ReplyDeletepanama?
I knew gold would fold...
ReplyDeletei need another vacation
ReplyDeletebeam me up
I think commodities might be getting crushed because China's been balking at high iron ore prices and such. The word is probably out they're not going to buy if governmental taxation goes through (Australia is proposing stiff mining tax).
ReplyDeleteGlad I planned for this... even though I didn't really think it would happen, that article from last night apparently raised many an eyebrow and now it's being realized.
China is the second largest global economy and might be on the way to #1 if we keep screwing off, why we don't follow them more closely I can't figure out....
The transporter's malfunctioning, all the crew's been snortin' the dilithium crystals!!!!
ReplyDeleteWell, for anyone who wanted to buy PAL with a "2" handle, you'll get your chance tomorrow. I'm just not at all convinced that it's a good idea. I do know that when the mass psychology swings back to not-bearish there is a LOT of money to be made long.
ReplyDeleteHow are you VB? What's new?
Chicken are you cooking meth right there in the barn?:)
ReplyDeleteI will try to keep my head and deploy capital to make a fortune after these assholes stop selling.
ReplyDeleteOh man, no need to broadcast the dirty laundry there sharkie...
ReplyDeleteI can tell your using the shit based on what it's doing to your hair:)
ReplyDeleteIt's rough stuff dude, the hair is just the tip of the iceberg. Now I've gotta go cover my tracks....
ReplyDeleteLooks like the US gov is going to start micromanaging the oil spill, err, Obama's Katrina I mean...
Obama has oil all over his legs and arms on this one...In fact, he looks a little like a befouled waterbird! Barack is doing the funky chicken yo. yo yo yo.
ReplyDeleteNot sure why but gold seemed to take a hit as the Wall St. regulation bill passed....... and futures turned green (barely) as well.
ReplyDeleteYou all know about the trial I served on. The murder was in a pretty dicey area here. I don't know about hair, but damn, meth raises hell on the teeth.
ReplyDeleteSeasoned meth hounds have no teeth, nor do chickens...
ReplyDeleteChickens don't have teeth? Damn....the things I learn here.
ReplyDeleteSeasoned chickens have no peckers(bills), I'm not seasoned yet so watch out for my pecker!
ReplyDeleteVB!!! Head line! The Red Lobster is having a special "Summer of Shrimp Festival".
ReplyDeleteDJIA futes -135/SPX -10...
ReplyDeleteThis is a week I look forward to forgetting.
ReplyDeleteNext week too:)
TBT bidding with a 37-handle/ Rate watch newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4425 comments) on Fri, 05/21/2010 - 08:37 #63344
ReplyDeleteFor those into the TOG...
And for those in the market for a low fixed-rate mortgage, you may have the opportunity to lock in a great deal over the next week or two...
Guys,
ReplyDeleteI am beginning to get the idea that the financial world may actually be coming to an end.
In a way this is more troubling than the first selloff in 08.
or we could have just bought TZA on Monday and gone on a freaking vacation...Hey you know, in any market phase there is that one trade, the one that's so right that you don't need to watch it, don't need to dick around with it.
ReplyDeleteThis week that's been the TZA. I sat there at 6 and would have bought it, except for having read somewhere that you shouldn't hold those suckers overnight. Oh well.
we would have made 1/3 on our money in TZA...BLOODSUCKERS!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteshark- I could have bought VXX @ 20 and held it...
ReplyDeleteI could have bought SLW at 7.50 last year and held it...
ReplyDeleteIn fact, my first post on this blog was I coulda had a V8 (under the hood) with SLW...
ReplyDeleteWTF, man. If it was easy, we'd all be rich.
ReplyDeleteNow the question is- will you look back in 6 weeks and say you could have bought PAL @ 3...
ReplyDeleteYeah I know but I'm not talking about last year. By the time of the March lows we were all like deer in the headlights, unable to act on the long side for what seemed like an eternity. I had a hard time buying into the rally....which is why it was such a good rally, right?
ReplyDeleteHey 2nd....How turned out to be right, you or your wife? I don't recall?
Is your kid still in C? Better there than PAL eh?
Have a good weekend my friend. I am planning on panicking out of my stock in the first half hour and then going for a walk in the woods:)
Its about time to quit investing for another 15 years again. This time I'm not going to lose 37% in 3 days, first.
ReplyDeleteNeither one of us turned out to be 'right.' Both of us decided to clear the table (including the 8-year-old's) after the May 6 drop. The 400 point rally the day after was like a gift, and we didn't want to look a gift horse in the mouth, as they say.
ReplyDeleteI think I posted a comment saying the crash had already happened, and it was just a matter of time before investors 'caught up' to it. Well, here we are...
Bob...I have to say....The stock market will no longer be thought of as a good place to make money...Wall Street is a totally discredited industry....Government are traitors to our founding documents, a nascent homegrown Nazi party is up and running and receiving plenty of mainstream press coverage and even winning elections.....
ReplyDeleteBro I never thought I'd live long enough to see this happening to my country.
I'm off to Kentucky for a clinic.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to leave you with Landry's words of wisdom.
"The second mouse get's the cheese."
Except for CHSCP I'm all in cash.
Got my stops set and I'll be back Tuesday evening.
THAT of course means we hit a major bottom in the next three trading sessions while I'm at about 35,000 feet. Heck and dang, I really want to get a buy in on TBT too.....
Good luck you guys. Watch your MA's....
May 6 lows for DIA/SPY = 99.16/105.00...
ReplyDeleteFlash crash replays in slo-mo newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4426 comments) on Fri, 05/21/2010 - 09:24 #63349
ReplyDeleteMay 6 lows for DIA/SPY were 99.16/105.00...
I think it was Ritholtz who commented those numbers will act as magnets.
It's like watching them replay the blitz in freeze frame on the big screen.
BTW...
ReplyDeleteFrom Smarttrends: (we'll see how smart...)
"Stocks plummeted, looking for bottoms as fears of an encore economic recession emanating from Europe brought stock sellers out in droves. The DJIA fell a whopping 376 points to close at 10,068. The market indices have fallen through important support levels as the SmarTrend® indicators still seek bottoms from which to rally."
More than likely I won't be buying today, more like selling. Very ugly right now, I wanna see what happens first.
ReplyDeleteIn PAL 3.13 going hiking no stop not even watching. Fukkitt.
ReplyDeleteUNH - Out @ $28.70
ReplyDeleteIt's working for ya Sharkie, I'm at my kneepoint here sitting on my hands.
ReplyDeleteFing computer problems...GMO @ 3.06. Tried to get FTWR @ 3.90, but couldn't.
ReplyDeleteI'm really pissed I wussed out on V.
ReplyDeleteSomethin' die in NAZZI land???
ReplyDeleteFTWR @ 3.90.
ReplyDeleteI bought DGP in high 29's this am, but just $100k worth. I have no faith whatsoever in anything anymore.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure I'll be proven wrong, but feel like a ST, tradeable bottom is in.
ReplyDeleteIt's sure helped to have had SGG working so well for me as everything else came crashing down on my head.
ReplyDeletetoo whippy for me..i need to be home watching every tick to play this action...
ReplyDeleteHaving no faith in this insane market proves your sanity.
ReplyDeleteI wanna see a couple days without losses before I commit anything more, prices have been known to bounce.
I was buying the punishment, not the bounce. To be honest, I didn't even expect a bounce. Maybe that's why there is one.
ReplyDeleteHaven't seen this in awhile, man. Bear raid.
ReplyDeleteThey are just cleaning everyone out. Bears, then bulls, then bears again. Everyone getting fucked royally. Everyone cleaned out to where they lose all faith.
ReplyDeleteI'm with Mark.
ReplyDeleteGMO shook out all the weaklings it's probably a buy right here.
PAL ditto. I am long PAL and looking to get longer.
Yep, they take the market right past the hairy edge of extremes and then whip it right back in again time after time, rinse and repeat.
ReplyDeleteI guess the 200DMA was sneaking up on us too quickly so they had to do something.
Tell me they don't use their computers programmed with psychological behavior patterns to fake us out and steal our money...
Merkel - Wasn't that the goofy black dude with hiked-up floods and suspenders who used to play on comedy TV? What the heck was the name of that show....???
ReplyDeleteWhatcha' thinking Sharkie, Mark or anyone, it looks to me like this was just a bounce????
ReplyDeletecp - lookin' at spx @1080 & tza @ 7.45. Which Way??? If GS rolls back down to 136 will reshort OTM July put @ 120 or so...
ReplyDeleteOkay, thanks Kyle!
ReplyDeletecp - I still think we probe lower -- on spx(1044 from Feb, 1029 from early Nov, 1019 from early Oct & then there is the top of H&S 950 from Jun)
ReplyDeleteYep, so do I. Which is why I dumped UNH this morning at a loss.
ReplyDeleteSo now I pay the price but situated for lower prices.
"Prechter: Bank reform will shrink credit and kill the economy"
ReplyDeleteFinally something I can identify with Prechter on, yet the market doesn't see it that way (or isn't correlated).
I see that the market did pull a feeble attempt at a rally today, after learning about the AMB increase last night. It started with a gap down, though, and during that gap 1 SPY June $117 put hit its sell limit order at 3X the purchase price ($12). Now I have 2 June $114 puts and 2 June $117 puts all with a 0 cost basis. Now I can relax and not worry about losing money on these option purchases (statistics shows that I almost always make money when I create and *sell* new puts). Time to turn my attention to scaling out of my remaining ultrashorts.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't bulls be disappointed if all indices end in red today? That would serve to show that the market has no faith in the upside for now...
ReplyDeleteLet's see how quickly I can lose money by daytrading. :) Just bought 1000 shares of TZA at $7.60.
ReplyDeleteStop limit at $7.51/7.50.
ReplyDeleteAdded 500 more shares of TZA at $7.54 and also included these shares into the sell stop limit at $7.51/7.50.
ReplyDeleteNow placing a sell limit order at $7.74 for 500 shares I picked up at $7.54.
ReplyDeleteOK, now that it looks like I won't get stopped out on my TZA trade, I am canceling my stop order and instead placing another sell limit order at $7.80 for 500 shares I picked up at $7.60, and at $7.90 for the last 500 shares purchased at $7.60.
ReplyDeleteWell, looks like selling UNH was the right move, probably should go short now...
ReplyDeleteI spoke too soon and the TZA momentum reversed once again. So I canceled the sell limit orders at $7.80 and $7.90 (for now) and, consistent with the rule of not letting a profit turn into a loss, placed a sell stop limit order at $7.60/7.59 for 1000 shares I picked up at $7.60.
ReplyDeleteOK, got stopped out at $7.60 from my original purchase, flat. Now I only have 500 shares riding that I added at $7.54, and I placed a sell stop limit order for them at $7.54/7.53.
ReplyDeleteYep, I'm gonna wait for some clear TA sig's before making any moves, this still could go either way and I'm done with guessing cause that just doesn't work for me.
ReplyDeleteInteresting observation from David Rosenberg today:
ReplyDelete"We went back to 1946 and never found a time when the stock market (S&P 500) corrected this much in the so-called “sweet spot” of the cycle (the time between the end of the recession and the first Fed rate hike). The most it has ever gone down in this positive part of the “investment clock” was 3%."
Continuing with David Rosenberg:
ReplyDelete"What is “normal” is that during the “sweet spot” period, the equity market is up 15% from the lows, not 80%. Depending on whether you calculate the 15% off the first low in November 2008 or the second low in March 2009, it would not be a stretch to see this market trade down to below 900 on the S&P500 before the interim low is turned in. In this latest phase, the steepest advance was 30%, which would therefore mean, if you want to be early at calling the low, a test of the 870 to 975 range would be your band in which to scale back in."
OK, I just got stopped out at $7.54 for the last 500 shares of TZA I purchased at $7.54.
ReplyDeleteIn the past, I would have to pay at least $100 for the fun of day trading (as the market would quickly move against me and hit my stop without letting my trade move into the positive territory), but today it was a free fun for me. I guess the market character has indeed changed. :)
Looks like the rule of "not letting a profit turn into a loss" saved me from some major trouble on my large intraday TZA trade. I guess stops ARE really necessary during day trading with large positions.
ReplyDeleteRocket into the close, economic vitality reins supreme following false alarm!
ReplyDeleteI wonder why there is such a large discrepancy between HNUZF and HNU.TO. I remember very recently that they were almost the same. Maybe there is an arbitrage opportunity here? I have a buy limit order at $4.80 for HNUZF, which should get triggered on Monday. After that, I'll be ready for yet another ride up in NGas. :)
ReplyDeleteI kept the DGP I bought, but have no faith they won't further trash gold next week before gold options expire.
ReplyDeleteWe live in a very fucked, manipulated world. I want out!
Wonder how many poor souls were snookered by the double-talk look-at-me BS Cara was likely spewing forth this week?
ReplyDeleteGold - The moves are quick, seem to come from nowhere, and occasionally the vertical component is severe.
ReplyDeleteIf you ever figure out the timing, please, please, please let me in on the secret.
hey everyone - hope you are all doing well this week. i see the market has stabilized a bit here. my call that yesterday was the low was possibly a day off??? the low of today was just above the February lows and if they hold then its still a series of higher lows. I have a bunch of free cash available on Monday and will be looking to build long positions in some quality stocks that look cheap, particularly GOOG. I'm not sure what is going on with that but it looks too good to pass up on.
ReplyDeleteWelcome home TOF, I think everyone here's off on cookouts at the moment.
ReplyDeleteSeems like we bounced off of thin air, except short RSI's were exceptionally low RSI(2) was just 1 for SPY!
Just got back....
ReplyDeleteTBT- Take a look at this chart. TBT filled a gap ALL the way back to last January today. About as safe an entry point as you'll ever get.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NTQ5Njg4N
Hey CP :)
ReplyDeleteAs I thought a little about the reasons for today's EOD moonshot, I figured that it was most likely due to profit taking by the bears after an amazingly good week for them, as opposed to the market sniffing out some real development this weekend that might put an end to this correction. So I just bought AH 100 shares of SKF at $21.15.
ReplyDeleteTBT - Good point Mark, it's rather doubtful rates can get much lower from here.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Kinda went into the stratusphere for a little while today, was temptempted to sell and buy back wish I woulda'... Still think it's headed up some from here, maybe I'll buy into Monday's low if there is one, for a quick scalp.
David, no doubt bears were taking profits today. They probably didn't want to risk holding into a weekend after such a bloodbath.
ReplyDeleteDo you think the AMB was fully consumed or is it still working it's magic?
G*O S*H*A*R*K*S!!!!!! 5:00pm pst.!!
ReplyDeleteOrdered my son an HP laptop for his graduation, today.
ReplyDeleteWith shipping and 10% tax was $350 for a 2.1ghz x 2 Duo with 15.4" screen, 4gb mem, 250gb drive and a legit copy of Win7. I'm amazed how cheap computers have gotten. His Mom was worried that it didn't have a built in webcam till I explained that its not a Mac where the upgrades for a webcam would have cost over $400 like they wanted to add one to my Daughter's Macbook. LOL, it was more a question of did you want the cheap $5 webcam, or the $25 one.
That sounds like a smokin' deal, does it have a DVDROM drive?
ReplyDeletetoday blog is historical bookmark.
ReplyDeletenow, 2nd, can we have some friday night party music ? hard week for all!
The TBT chart indeed looks inviting. I think the moonshot in Treasuries is due to people dumping European debt and switching to the US debt. However, once this initial influx of buyers ends, who else will be left to buy? Only sellers will remain, and a large pullback in Treasuries will result. I just bought 200 shares of TBT at $39.18.
ReplyDeleteWow, those futures sure have a lotta green all over em'.... Makes one feel like a Leprechaun or at least want to recite a limerick.
ReplyDeletewe live in a fucked up world
ReplyDeleteget the canteens out
miss mosely
Well, I think it was the financial bill that did it, but that RSI indicator sure was on the money.
ReplyDeletecp
ReplyDeleteok.. so we are out of the woods now?
buy gs?
I just realized an order I placed this morning and left for dead was filled. Final 1/3 of my SSO in the IRA filled at 35.29.
ReplyDeleteFull position now for me @ and average of 37.58. Since this is in a no margin account I'll let it play out. Otherwise the funds will be frozen until settled. Make that mistake once and got a nasty letter from Schwab :)
So, now I'm about 30% long total.
GMO/FTWR/SD/PXP/SGG/PAL.
These helped as well:
ReplyDeleteBanks post best profit in two years, FDIC says.
S&P companies have announced $4.4B in combined dividend increases:
Safeway hikes quarterly dividend by 20%.
I'm beginning to think this wasn't just a dead cat bounce.
Opps...and UNG.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys and VB,
ReplyDeleteI loved the way the market closed today. I did re-load some xtra PAL into the close and am carrying a "full position" (for me) over the weekend. For 3 bucks and change, at the 300 day MA, with two days' action strongly suggestive of a bottom, with the dow up almost all day today and closing real well, and with a permanent stop somewhere in the high 2's, I am guessing we are headed back up toward the opening range (of the year). I will TRY to hold this position for maybe the rest of the year, I think it was that historic an buying oppty in this stock today.
Have a great weekend everybody, I hope you all get lucky, and I don't mean in a stock:)
Cramer was asked about HEK on his show today. Said no go, too speculative. He had to look it up. Maybe I will get a gift on Monday :).
ReplyDeletevb - Think hard, what should we buy, gs?
ReplyDeleteGood luck hunting this weekend Sharkie!
ReplyDeleteCP- I'm eyeing GS also...not that you asked me :).
ReplyDelete:)
ReplyDeleteMark - vb brought up gs, I was thinking about more GMO if it opens weak I'll pounce on a scalp.
ReplyDeleteOr would TMV, TBT, or HEK be the better choice?
ReplyDeleteCP- I'm happy with my chunk of GMO. 5K shares. Between that and PAL, 5K shares, I've got plenty of exposure in that area. I'd love to add TBT and HEK to the mix. I honestly don't think it will take that long to be proven right or wrong here for me. We had a real test here, or we correct further, and I'm screwed!!
ReplyDeleteAlright - I'm not gonna buy tonight, I'll buy weakness or ride what I've got.
ReplyDeletei need some luck living out here in racoon land
ReplyDeleteOh crap, you've only got 5k shares? So it wasn't you this morning saving the day after all! ;) Whew, that makes me sad to think I didn't buy and glad to know it's not the two of us holding the market up.
ReplyDeleteYea, I'm still gonna wait for Monday's open before buying....
BTW - I'm waiting primarily for the same reason you point out, don't want to get too deep until some smoke has cleared (or oil slick?).
ReplyDeleteYes, CP a rwdvd and just about everything but a webcam. I bought a webcam separately for $6.50 shipped since the post, and I guess I'll need to buy him a printer too, since he'll be off at school with it.
ReplyDeleteThe nice thing is that if I don't like how its setup, I have a dvd and drivers for it, so can just reload. Since the drive is so big, I just may set it up with a dual boot for Win 7 or Linux. I'm a true blue MSFT hater, LOL, but he should see them both and get to choose which he wants to use. I will set it up with Open Office on both so he can put his documents on flashdrive and open/edit/print with either o/s without any trouble like I do. I told him if he wants MS Office, it has to come out of HIS pocket. LOL, I know he won't actually buy it unless he absolutely NEEDS it to do something. It might happen, but I hope not. He'll probably end up a creative-technician/engineer like me because its in his blood, but I'm not going to tell him that. He'll figure it out, I'm sure...
Interesting...I just tired to add a 300ma line in my chart. NO go. Only up to 250.
ReplyDeleteRaccoon land, how funny! They like cat food by the way but they'll knock you garbage cans over. I used to have to keep mine(cans) fenced until I moved to the sticks, these raccoons don't have the faintest idea of what a garbage can is and they leave it alone.
ReplyDeleteYou should be able to go 400MA at least, has the equity been around for a while(years)?
ReplyDeletecheapy - I'm a MS hater as well, along with Intel. I still have a choice with CPU(AMD all the way, nothing else, at my peril if necessary) but MS's still got LINUX shut out.
ReplyDeleteLet's do a little research on ZBB.
ReplyDeleteCP- Nope, I tried it on PAL. :(. 250 max.
300 is working now.
ReplyDeletecp
ReplyDeleteyeah, a racoon jumped out of the garbage bin almost landed in my arms. it was 5:30 am
so how are you buying now? let me in on that
ZBB - Sure, at first glance looks like they're nearly BK. Zinc-bromide batteries?
ReplyDeleteOkay, I'll look closer at it this weekend (no promises, it's supposed to rain) out of respect for U.
mark, your avatar looks like a big green bug.
ReplyDeletemaybe me being paranoid
Raccoons are one of the worst rabies offenders stay away from them, keep your dog vaccinated. Someone near here claimed they saw a rabid fox around a month back, but I'm not sure if they weren't pulling my leg trying to scare me or something.
ReplyDeleteSquirrels rarely have rabies.... U prolly know.
VB- It's the logo for the San Jose Sharks :)
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteYa see, I helped AMD kick Intel's ass back in the late 80's(100MHZ breakthrough!), we were only able to do it b/c they befriended us.
ReplyDeleteDealing with Intel was the most difficult chore I've ever had, they constantly try their best to screw you over and they broke my spirit after 2 years hammering away 20 hour days 6 day weeks trying to help them.
I'm a nonconformist at heart.... my way or the highway if you want the job done, not a machine and no military lick my boots crap.