Saturday, May 22, 2010
5/23/10 It Takes One to Know One/ Turn The Page
I'm reproducing in full one of Bob's comments:
cheapybob said...
I know only too well and too often what its like to kill yourself helping someone only to find out or see it was unappreciated. Very demoralizing when it did occur. I have to credit myself with walking away after every single time, no matter what the cost. If you really put your blood and soul into something, you won't be able to ever hold your head high again if you let them walk over you.
I had a desperate client once, had a business problem that was costing $15k a week in customer affecting problems, and so I sat there and figured it out, and figured out a solution on paper, and submitted it to their corporate as per the rules, and the CEO said he wanted it as quickly as I could possibly do it, so I sat there till late that night, and wrote it, debugged it, fixed the stuff that wasn't ready for the real world, retested, got it all working, and then submitted it to corporate for move to production. I got a rejection email back saying I wasn't allowed to work on it and that the programming had been outsourced to India. I was livid. I had told the CEO I would make it happen for him and had lived up to my promise, no lunch, no breaks, no supper, and got it done, and it went to waste.
Each week after that when I came in I would ask if the Indians got it finished, and each week they would tell me that they had submitted another program that failed end user testing for one reason or another. This went on for 4 weeks, until the 4th week they told me the Indians had finally got it working ($60k in mistakes later). I went and looked at the program the Indians had submitted, and there was my code, which they had finally found and copied. I went in and told the CEO I couldn't work there anymore, after lasting as a consultant/contractor from 1986 till 2005, lasting through probable 10 IT managers, 4 CEOs, and 3 systems/conversions. It was what I had to do. I couldn't have lived with myself if I had allowed their corporate ivory tower people, who knew nothing about the business itself, and proved it, to walk over me like that.
Sad to say, but sometimes you have to stand up and be counted, no matter what the cost.
(a) Good bosses, like good quarterbacks, know where their paychecks come from- results. It's one thing to be able to 'see' what needs to be done. Getting it done is an entirely different matter. Knowing who to turn to is an art in and of itself.
(b) They are generally also smart enough to 'protect' valuable employees from the vagaries of corporate decision-makers. They find ways to retain talent. Heck, their jobs depend on it.
(c) They listen. 'Nuff said on that.
Well, too bad.
Can't say I agree with shark's response. If we were to compare Bob's bottom line to that of the CEO who replaced him with a new draft pick, I think talent wins out over time. In addition, you can't put a price on what you see when you look in the mirror.
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Flash Crash Replay in the Crystal Ball newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4427 comments) on Sat, 05/22/2010 - 10:30 #63393
ReplyDeleteHere's a take from Mark Hulbert on the Flash Crash:
www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-back-at-flash-crash-...
"Commentary: Maybe 'flash crash' wasn't a mistake after all"
Here's a reproduction of a comment I made to Vad on May 6:
Re: Speaking of setups and scenarios.../ Crash suspended
Submitted by 2nd_ave (4426 comments) on Thu, 05/06/2010 - 21:42 #62348 (in reply to #62347)
Vad- Would appreciate hearing from you.
Here's my take-
(a) The market really did crash today.
(b) The post-mortem explanations are buffalo chips.
(c) ST buying/short-covering would be enough to explain the 'recovery.' Let's face it, bears were looking at unreal gains, and like all good traders, they tripped over themselves trying to lock those gains in. I mean, how long have they been waiting for any gains at all?
The remainder of the crash will unfold over the next few trading days.
Read the news two weeks ahead of time on the Cara blog.
2nd- I've been thinking the same thing. Just a heads up. I would be careful with any individual stocks that haven't re-tested that low.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a banner weekend here in the Bay Area.
I'm OK now....really...ah shit, no I'm not...crap.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about you guys, but what has so often been the difference between failure and success for me has been attitude and persistence, as much as skill. Somehow I need to find that ability in trading, too. Maybe the holy grail isn't something on the chart, but needs to be a combination of chart and attitude. I don't think I could even count the number of times that I've had big positions of what were to become big winners within a few days, and dumped them for small gains, or worse for losses because I lost faith in my ability and let the fear beat me.
ReplyDeleteThat sounded all well and good, but how do I reconcile that with how low the prices went in the "Great Deleveraging" a year or so ago? Had I not abandoned things for a few months there, I'd have been creamed like so many were.
Since you didn't pick any music, I will. For those who put everything they have into what they do.
Turn the page...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3khH9ih2XJg
This one caught my eye on block trade buys in the WSJ. GXDX. Gap-o-rama.
ReplyDelete2nd - You sound convinced, but for me to actually take stock in that, you must demonstrate your conviction.
ReplyDeleteI cannot accept this subject lightly, I've heard this constant distracting drumbeat for many months now (actually, my entire lifetime) and yet the market has never collapsed by my definition although it appeared to have been headed that way numerous times.
Cheapy said: "if you don't get to see the things you create succeed, there is no fun left in it."
I have that feeling daily, by knowing in a small way I contributed to the effort made by legions towards making computers what they are today.
You see, my conviction is that a total market collapse is an impossibility in the sense that the majority will lose.
ReplyDelete"Had I not abandoned things for a few months there, I'd have been creamed like so many were."
ReplyDeleteYes, it's all about confidence levels and the perception of the majority.
It's curious to note that I had the additional bonus yesterday prior to open of hearing a professional trader announce on the radio how in his opinion Friday would be yet another day of heavy selling. In all fairness, I suppose there was some selling, otherwise prices would have risen much further.
Chicken little had a superior week until he stepped on a nail in the barnyard yesterday....
The market seems to have a problem where there are people who are going to do nothing, no matter what, and there are speculators. The speculators appear to be driven like a herd of lemmings by the big prognosticators, like marc faber, bob prechter, noriel roubini, etc, and when they start saying sell, the lemmings start more and more jumping, till EVERYONE is saying SELL, like thursday, because everyone is expecting a big pullback or crash or at least retest of flash crash lows.
ReplyDeleteAnd just when everyone says down, there is nobody left to sell to make it go down, and the shorts start covering, and then scrambling to cover...
I just wish I were in sync with the dance to where I could trust/risk that I was in sync with it!
Don't downplay the fact that you sidestepped the 2008-09 crash. That alone 'entitles' you to a little 'tude adjustment.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so I noticed the press release regarding the work of the Synthetic Genomics company announcing yesterday to the world the very first living offspring of the modern computer.
ReplyDeleteWow - talk about concept, this could be quite a breakthrough for mankind, a programmable living organism!....:
"The Global Challenge:
Sustainably meeting the increasing demand for critical resources
The world is facing increasingly difficult challenges today. Population growth resulting in the growing demand for critical resources such as energy, clean water, food and medicine are taxing our fragile planet. To fulfill these needs we need disruptive technologies. We believe genomic advances offer the world viable, sustainable alternatives.
At Synthetic Genomics Inc. we are creating genomic-driven commercial solutions to revolutionize many industries. We have started by focusing on energy, but we imagine a future where our science could be used to produce a variety of products, from synthetically derived vaccines to prevent human diseases to efficient cost effective ways to create clean drinking water. The world is dependent on science and we're leading the way in turning novel science into life-changing solutions."
http://www.syntheticgenomics.com/
A little further detail on the goals of the project:
ReplyDelete"SGI's alliance with Exxon Mobil Research and Engineering (EMRE) group to create algal biofuels is one example of the important programs at SGI that could benefit from the new tools and technological advances of the synthetic genomics research. This program, announced in July 2009, is a long term research and development alliance focused on finding and optimizing (through synthetic genome techniques and other more traditional metabolic engineering techniques) algae to produce biological crude oil replacements efficiently."
No, I sorta stopped out multiple times, which is an ugly scenario when you own hundreds of thousands of shares of one stock.
ReplyDeleteAs I recall, I had sold my GSS, and saw it down 20% or so around $4, and bought a small position. When it broke down from $4, I dumped it. When it was just over $3 I did it again, but larger. Again it didn't hold and I dumped it under $3 for another loss. When it got to near $2 I did it again, larger, and again took a loss when it collapsed. At $1, I didn't even try. When it got to 54 cents I started buying, I think 10,000 to 25,000 per penny as it dropped, and kept adding till 40 cents, where I ran down to where I had $75k left, and decided I had better keep enough money to put my son through college. I think 40 cents was the bottom. I had done the same with RBY from $1.20 to about 75 cents, WGW from 75 cents down to 35 or 40 cents, and NGD (I forget price, in $1 area), and had given up on SLW, dumping it for loss at $2.80's.
My biggest mistake was selling out way too early as things recovered. I guess I just didn't really know what anything was worth.
I still don't.
How do we know if they will play "Everybody out of the pool" and "total deleverage" again?
ReplyDeleteThat is the fear gnawing at my insides when I buy...
What were the early signs if there were any? There must have been clues.
2nd- What was the last rate/duration of your mortgage? I'm seeing some pretty low #'s right now and might pull the trigger now that the floors are done.
ReplyDeleteIf talent wins out over time, why is Bob no longer drawing company paychecks?
ReplyDeleteAnd would not his interests be better served by having followed my suggested course of action, vis a vis continuing to receive checks?
I mean, Bob may find new successes in new fields and then of course Bob's interests would have been served by sticking to his principles....
He may become Paul Tudor Jones, or he may just walk into a deli during his former work-hours and buy the winning Powerball ticket. Either way, leaving his former job will have been a good thing.
I guess the fact is, based on the jobs I had, I never really thought of the workplace as either
A) being a particularly principled environ and
B) never thought of the workplace as being the place to stand up for my principles, since I never really found that my principles and the jobs I've had really had much to do with each other, maybe it's just me.
I never internalized my job and identified myself with it, I just sort of did it and looked forward to hopefully doing something else someday.
Bob,
You raise good points about perserverence and other qualities.
The perserverence will serve you well in this business, oh man of many screens. But there's another quality that's key also....The ability to know when to perservere, and when not to:)
BTW IMO the reason daytrading is not a terribly viable strategy for most people most of the time is because there is no belief involved, no passion really, for the issue at hand. In order to pay for the MANY SMALL losers one will encounter in this game, it is key to allow the winners to develop and to take profits only when
there are significant profits there to take.
Read Vad's ledger at the end of each day and you will see what a pssionless, meaningless and actually not particularly fruitful activity it is doing 5 trades a day and closing out each one within seconds or minutes instead of only touching the better trades and letting them develop. That's really the only way to have a positive risk/reward. Five hundred shares properly managed is a much bigger accomplishment than riding a Fifty thousand bucks worth of a fifty dollar stock up a quarter, down a quarter, whatever. That's what the flash crash really was I think, just a crash. Just a lot of longs getting their ASSES handed to them in a very bad monet when way too many people were long.
I do admire 2nds above discussion of his take on the flash crash, and the way it did auger for downside.
Does it still? Where are we now?
Bob,
ReplyDeleteWorth is just any moments agreeed upon value. I presume stocks are worth what they are trading for, and I try to determine what forces may change those facts.
Holding good positions, the subject of my above post IS totally critical to success, for obvious reasons.
Remember TZA?
Right now I have a 5.5%/30 and a HELOC @ about 3% for a small amount of money.
ReplyDeleteBy the way I'm actually not trying to slag Vadym, it's just that I could never invest money that way, it's too haphazard for me, and I'm STILL WAITING for someone, ANYONE to offer approximations of the value of Vad's service. I would just genuinely love to know what the results would be if you did all his trades, and did 'em the way he told you to, that's all:)
ReplyDeleteIt theorhetically shouldn't work out according to my understanding of the laws of thermophysics:)
And just to explain THAT comment, what I mean is, I don't doubt Vad's ability to call the market and to personally daytrade. What I do doubt, and what I mean when I speak of violations of the universe's laws, is the ability of a stunad to pay a guy 300 bucks a month to tell him how to trade, when to buy and sell and have THAT work out. It's different. Once again, no undue disrespect to Vad, just curious about the numbers, that's all:)
ReplyDeleteThen again, I'm curious about Bill's numbers too:)
TZA was just one of many positions owned that went way up just after I sold. Like the IWM puts a week or so ago. And I did the same with UCO last week in 8.50's (I don't think I posted it at the time).
ReplyDeleteI seem to do well guessing about when the bottoms are hit, or LOL, in some cases causing it, but I need to find a method of some sort that tells me when to hang on and when to sell all or part.
Any idea how to decide? Or where to find a method that works?
Yeah.
ReplyDeleteMy first suggestion is, give yourself a pat on the back. You actually bought something or things that went on to advance dramatically. That is the BASIS of bigtime success in this biz.
Now realize that the myriad forces which are at play in your psyche conspire against you and your best financial interest...How could they now, when everything we've been taught to believe about money and it's use/value has been wrong.
Example. Some guy thinks nothing of installing a $20,000 bathroom.....and then can't emotionally handle a position being in the red for a day or 2 before it takes off. I can't TELL YOU the number of times I've been in something good only to have it shake me out and/or not perform within my timeframe.
The market doesn't dance to your dime.....It does WHAT it does, WHEN it does, and that brings us to another point...
Remember your first win? Remember how good you felt about yourself, how smart, how right?
Wrong. You were lucky. I say this because, success in trading is fifty percent the skill you've already demonstrated, the ability to FIND good issues, but then, and this strays into Livermore territory, it's about HOLDING the position right, which almost NOBODY does who we talk with or know on the blogs in the world of finance. Those guys don't bother to blog, they just bank:)
So my point Bob is, you have one big demonstrable skill....the ability to find good things. Now you need to marshall your psychic resources so that the part of you that wants to kill you, that wants you to fail, to go back to a job, does not succeed in undermining your potential. That's an inward looking spiritual type thing. I mean you could come here and we could hang in the woods and talk about fear and odds and success and failure and shit like that, but I will presume you know how to do soul-searching on your own. More later.
Kudo's, I think that's some great stuff Mr. Shark...!
ReplyDeleteOh, and concerning my hairdo, I call it "dumpster explosion".
ReplyDeleteFTWR - I'm looking again at the FTWR chart and I gotta say the recent action is quite interesting.
ReplyDeleteHey, is Vad short or is he standing aside in the nearest corner?
ReplyDeleteNaaaa, sorry, I don't buy it. It can't be all psyche. There have to be reasons and/or quantifiable methods that people use to know when to hold onto things, and when to take the cookies. With TZA, what is its "real" value? So, then there must be some other way of deciding when to sell other that stopping out for a loss.
ReplyDeleteMark- 4.875%/30.
ReplyDeleteBob- I struggle with the same exact problem(s). A few strategies that I've found helpful:
ReplyDelete(a) When I sense it's time to enter a position, I now often wait. How long? That's kind of subjective- depends on so many factors I can't really pin it down to a single statement. A better way to put it is, 'Until I feel like waiting some more-' THEN it's probably time to to take a shot.
(b) Alternatively, I've noticed that whenever I spot a price that I've been waiting for, I often hesitate. And it will invariably turn out to have been the right time to buy. Self-doubt gets in the way. So I try to open at least a small position without hesitation when that happens.
(c) Like you, I have a tendency to exit positions way too early. I haven't found a good 'solution' to that one yet.
I hit B) a lot, too. I'll sit there watching a panic, and as soon as I go get coffee, it takes off on me, above where I wanted to buy, and then i never buy because it never comes back.
ReplyDeleteC) exit too early. the trend is still down when I buy and still hasn't really changed to up except on like a 1 min chart, and just a small leg or so by the time I exit usually. Its worst on something like TZA where there is no way to determine any kind of real "worth".
Well, the oil continues sloshing ashore and it appears BP hasn't devised a mechanism to stop the point source any time soon let alone remediate the present volume in any meaningful way.
ReplyDeleteIt's been what, a month, and impact of the initial volume is being realized, there's a lag here of a month which means there's quite a bit more oil floating out there just waiting to further contaminate the shores of the gulf.
It's getting uglier by the day folks, I suspect the market mat not react well to the lack of progress and wonder if it hasn't all been fully priced in(likely not, I'd say at this point).
Bottoms Up??... (Warning...Age verification required prior to viewing)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/05/21/mcclellan-oscillator-starting-to-turn-was-that-the-bottom/
Kanpai!
ReplyDeleteHey, I'll put this out there now before it happens: My feeling is if the market rally continues from here, gold should eventually begin to move up(with some delay b/c that's what gold does, it makes jagged quick (powerful?) moves).
ReplyDeletetaking the temperature
ReplyDeletedoes Anyone here know one person (friend, relative, friend of friend ect...having a good year from their business?)
#2
does anyone here know 1 person who is not suffering from the economy?
truth
v
listen,
ReplyDeleteI have a bad feeling. I have traveled both coasts and I all my stable friends no longer have stable jobs. I know many making 150,000 year who are now out of work on enemployment and/or being offered to work as independent contracters for a little more than unemployment (no medical).
sorry to be negative, y'all know I am usually very happy go lucky. I have a bad feeling. maybe i need prozac or adderall. ?
just sharing since you are my friends and I sense many here are going through the same.
let's be real about your real life income so we can play this market right. thanks
m moseley
re: song turn the page
ReplyDeleteguess we are getting old. times have changed for sure
Well, earnings this quarter seem to have been better than expected? I haven't traveled much if at all(like many here), so all I know for sure is what I see with my own eyes. I ask people I meet just about every chance I get the same question(s) just posed by vb and usually either get a shoulder shrug or when I ask business owners, they tell me things are picking up.
ReplyDeleteSo currently from my perspective and what little real world exposure I get here in my neck of the woods, I'd have to say the current conditions are somewhere between static and improving but could slide down hill under the right circumstances.
According to recent home price data for the area (heavily waited towards Federal government contractors and services), prices have increased approximately 6% y/y.
But I would certainly appreciate hearing more about/from other regions....
WRLD - Just came off it's low for this year and looks like it may break out...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete