Sunday, May 23, 2010
5/24/10 Closer To Home
Am I in my cabin dreaming, or are you really scheming,
To take my ship away from me?
You'd better think about it, I just can't live without it.
So, please don't take my ship from me.
Yeah, yeah, yeah ...
I can feel the hand, of a stranger,
And it's tightening, around my throat.
Heaven help me, Heaven help me,
Take this stranger from my boat.
The down one thousand > up one thousand-> down one thousand action on the DJIA in the past two weeks could easily be played out on a longer time frame as down 50% > up 70% > down 60%.
Personally, I wouldn't want to be responsible for sailing any ship except my own the next 12 months.
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I'm with Ms. Moseley regarding the economic outlook over the next 6-12 months. Not good.
ReplyDeleteJust the facts man, just the facts....
ReplyDeleteBesides, it isn't the folks drawing $150k/yr who pay the bills, it's the folks making 1/3 (and less) of that.
ReplyDeleteOf the people I know that have lost jobs, 2 are working part time for the next few months as census workers, 1 has landed an actual job at a greatly reduced salary, and all the rest are still unemployed, the lucky ones getting checks still, and some now run out.
ReplyDeleteThe economy is not completely "seized up" like it was 18 months ago, but it isn't great. Now that the cash for homebuyers is over, I hear that traffic is way down, and I shudder to think what happens when the Fed stops buying the mortgages (95% of them bought by Fed last year).
As I see it, you can bet that after they are forced to turn down the lunatic printing presses we will be going back into the depression. I expect that will be soon after the fall elections. I said "forced to" because I think in another year we will be like Greece, except huge and crippled too badly for anyone to save, and a monetary/fiscal crisis where the dollar crashes or rates rise to decimate the economy will result.
PS: everyone that I know that still has a job has taken pay cuts (from 25 to 40% different people), and none have gotten any of it back. I don't have any friends except the one that finally got a new job that aren't looking for a new job, but I rarely hear of anyone getting an interview, just sending in applications. The potential jobs I've been sent lately are all at least 300 mi away, and all have been contract only, at about 1/2 rate with no travel or reloc costs or payroll taxes covered (ie you pay double social security and medicare taxes), and no benefits (ie no healthcare or paid time off), and no unemployment when it ends. Better to sit here and gamble till they raise the state income tax, and then abandon ship and move somewhere else to avoid that.
ReplyDeleteThe FED has already blown their wad on MBS's, they haven't been buying for some time now.
ReplyDeleteI expect they stopped too soon.
FRE/FNM are buying back defaulted loans so they don't have to cover guaranteed losses. This has taken a chunk out of MREIT's b/c their spread gets eaten away.
Who flips the empties for them, and how long can FRE/FNM sit on delinquencies? Can't they simply leverage the spread as the REIT's/FED were/are doing?
REIT's will looking to buy replacement MBS's.
All is well.
XOM - Is it about time we buy some of this?
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDeleteI agree generally with your above assertions. Critical to consider are ways to reduce exposure to confiscatory taxation.
I would counsel avoiding, to the extent practicable, owning property subject to ad valorem taxation.
Hopefully stocks will go up this week.
I know the palladium chart looks really bad, but cmon.....3 bucks at the 300 day....it was too tempting to not buy. Now I hope the world agrees.
Kyle you out there? What charts are looking good to you?
Okay, so I got to thinking about sovereign debt a little and decided to take a trip back in time for a look at how these problems have been resolved in the past. What popped into my peabrain head? South America, of course!
ReplyDeleteFirst stop, the Brady Bond:
"Brady bonds were created in March of 1989 in order to convert bonds issued by mostly Latin American countries into a variety or "menu" of new bonds after many of those countries defaulted on their debt in the 1980's. At that time, the market for sovereign debt was small and illiquid, and the standardization of emerging-market debt facilitated risk-spreading and trading. In exchange for commercial bank loans, the countries issued new bonds for the principal sum and, in some cases, unpaid interest. Because they were tradable and came with some guarantees, in some cases they were more valuable to the creditors than the original bonds.
The key innovation behind the introduction of Brady Bonds was to allow the commercial banks to exchange their claims on developing countries into tradable instruments, allowing them to get the debt off their balance sheets. This reduced the concentration risk to these banks."
You may treat yourself to a leisurely cruise through history at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Bonds
In otherwords, the solution to pollution has always been and probably always will be, through dilution.
ReplyDelete(Sorry couldn't resist connecting the dots to the evolving Gulf tragedy)
PAL - Notice the RSI was less than 2 on Thursday close, which virtually guaranteed a rebound.
ReplyDeleteSure wish I could calculate RSI on a realtime basis...
RSI(2)<2, that is... I have yet to find many instances when this hasn't worked.
ReplyDeletethanks for everyones comments, It helps me make my next move. Looks like we open Lower today ..
ReplyDeleteA friend told me to check our Evergreen Bank.
https://www.evergreenbanking.com/
Anyone know anything about it?
m mosely
Shark - Until things calm down a bit, I'm not sure individual charts are all that differentiated. Perhaps NG, SQNM, IRE, SOLF, YGE, ACAS, TLAB, CZZ. Also like the way GS held 135 throughout all this.
ReplyDeleteGuys,
ReplyDeleteWhat a difference a day makes.
The people in the stock market are so frigging psychotic that what they're dumping one day they're clamoring for the next, and vice-versa.
It's like screwing around with toddlers:)
Or manic-depressives.
ReplyDeleteUNH - Back in @ $28.45
ReplyDeleteOuch!
ReplyDeleteTo me this screwdoodle lacks the conviction of last weeks:)
ReplyDeleteI just think we sold off so hard last week that we are lacking any real downside conviction.
ReplyDeleteHey MS. M:)
Where in the nation are ya?
I can't come up with any good entries this morning.
ReplyDeleteWhere else but Italy would you expect to find a vending machine that serves pizza from scratch?
ReplyDelete2nd...ever talk to Vinod? What happened to him, really?
ReplyDeleteshark- Nice 10% gain on your PAL.
ReplyDeleteUNH recovering nicely, CP. Up high, down low, too slow- but still a gain...
ReplyDeleteThink your having a bad day?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWvutny7juk
2nd - Here's one for ya!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ia0IfchQWoQ
I'm kinda kicking myself for not picking up at least a little C. Otherwise, I'm happy.
ReplyDelete2nd - Yep, coulda got a much better UNH entry today but that RSI(2)<2 print told me to get back in.
ReplyDeleteHow long will it last? No telling but it's pretty beat up already... Maybe RSI(7)>70 will be my guiding light?
What happened to Merk, on vacation?
ReplyDeleteI'm here CP. Takes me a little while to go through all of my positions.
ReplyDeleteI used to have that problem till' cutting back on junk food...
ReplyDeleteUNH - out @ $28.85, just in case something nasty happens.
ReplyDeleteThanks 2nd.,...I'm holding long term, so I don't care about the ten percent. There was a time, I'm sure you'll remember, when I used to often do ten percent in a day and sell and feel like a hero, only to have the stock go on to double in the next week. I feel good about PAL where I bought it.
ReplyDeleteMark...C is/will be good, a lot of people will want to see it do the sideways shimmy and break the st dt it's still in.
Yo JB!!- What's cooking?
ReplyDeleteRight before it makes another nasty high, that is...
ReplyDeletePalladium (the metal) running like a rioter coming out an electronics store:)
ReplyDeleteStink bids in on CHK/HEK. See you guys in a few.
ReplyDeleteyes, carrying a television:)
ReplyDeleteIt's a Sony!
ReplyDeleteIs this what they mean by being a bear?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWvutny7juk
test
ReplyDeleteIs this what they mean by a bear?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWvutny7juk
The deviation between HNUZF and HNU.TO has indeed turned out to be a great arbitrage opportunity. HNUZF is up 4% right now, catching up to where it is supposed to be. Oh well. Since it is not a bargain anymore, I just picked up 250 shares of UNG at $6.92 and placed a sell limit order for them at $7.32.
ReplyDeleteWish I'd seen/heard of this earlier, missed it...
ReplyDelete3/21 Bloomberg:
"Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for a third straight week, the longest slide since October. China imported 309,772 metric tons last month, the second- biggest amount since June, the government said. Before today, copper dropped 6 percent this week on European debt concerns."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=anK80Mz1OTOc
That article was about copper inventory.
ReplyDeleteYa know I wish that I had Jessie's girl!
ReplyDeleteBoys...Good day here so far, but damn, SD is getting hammered.
ReplyDeleteGMO looks REALLY good here:)
ReplyDeleteLike a bullish spring in the making
ReplyDeleteIf it fails to close positive it may be a bad sign says Dennis G.
ReplyDeleteShark- What?
ReplyDeleteGoldman shitting the bed like granny sharkey after I sent her to the nursing home:)
ReplyDeleteLast hour could get nasty Mark if the sheeple determine that the relief rally has no legs....
I will buy some GMO today....And it aint just the Guinness talking...That stock is good.
ReplyDeleteOk maybe not today:)
ReplyDeleteSeeing if I can sell FTWR @ 4.14.
ReplyDeleteMaybe today, if I can get a price.
ReplyDeleteHey ya know what's funny?
The best swing trader would be a shopaholic female who only buys on sale who you taught to trade, and I only say female beacuse I think the above stereotype is underrepresented at least in the way we think about traders.
BTW check out HOTT if you like that co.
Oh I see the nastiness continues......
I hold PAL still as I hold my own......
Kyle good call on SQNM...looks like it may get good sometime soon, the ma's are excellent my stony brother:)
Shark- Yeah, feels like a coiled spring. If I'm lucky enough to off load FTWR, I'll dump the cash into some energy plays.
ReplyDeleteMore yelling in TV land...I love it :).
ReplyDeleteThere's a little tiny gap in OIH @ 95.04.
ReplyDeleteKeep yer heads boys.....This pirate senses that the selling's not got much powder left to burn......
ReplyDeleteHold the stock you bought 2 days ago and trust in the power of the sea to see you through.....
Don't le the market play you ayyyyeeeeeee...
ARRRRRGHHHHHHHH.
I fly the Jolly Roger friends....I stand for pirate proftis taken out of the backside of ANYONE NAME CARA...
HEHEHEHEHEHEHE
If I live a thousand lifetimes I will never vanuqish the bad taste of that uniformed, decorated servant the queen, her majesty....ayyyyeeeeeeeeee....
All right, FTWR off @ 4.16. Bidding PXP @ 21.60.
ReplyDeleteShark- I agree, kinda feels like their jerking our chain here. Besides, how much less loved can the drillers get? Honestly, I really have to problem holding them long term. Unlike FTWR.
ReplyDeleteShark - sounds like you've had more than Guinness my friend... like maybe some of that weed that Bill Murray was smokin' on Caddyshack :-)
ReplyDeleteAll right...added to PXP @ 21.60.
ReplyDeleteGood day for HEK.
ReplyDeleteJust sold 2 July $19 puts on PXP for $0.95 each, so as to buy some PXP at $18.05.
ReplyDeleteAdding to SD @ 5.42.
ReplyDeleteMan, they couldn't get rid of then quick enough at the close.
ReplyDeleteLooks like my guess about the EOD rally on Friday being just profit taking by the bears turned out to be correct. The SKF shares I picked up after hours on Friday at $21.15 have done well today.
ReplyDeleteIn the light of Hussman's latest market commentary, I think I'll keep these SKF shares for a while longer.
In the light of my UNG purchase today at $6.93, I am canceling my buy limit order on HNUZF at $4.80. If HNUZF gets that low, then NGas will have broken its support, and so I would like to wait until it stabilizes at some lower level before buying again.
ReplyDeleteThis market's on its way down.
ReplyDeleteAll right, I decided to place the sell limit order at $23 for 100 shares of SKF I picked up on Friday at $21.15. I think my remaining June $114 and $117 SPY puts will not expire, so rather than focusing on getting rid of them, I'll focus on scaling out of my ultrashorts (which are now getting damaged a lot from the increased market volatility).
ReplyDeleteUNG made an intraday triple bottom today at around $6.92, so tomorrow the next wave up in UNG will probably begin. I am ready for it now. :)
ReplyDelete