Monday, May 24, 2010
5/25/10 Black Tuesday
My my, hey hey
Rock and roll is here to stay
It's better to burn out
Than to fade away
My my, hey hey.
Out of the blue
and into the black
They give you this,
but you pay for that
And once you're gone,
you can never come back
When you're out of the blue
and into the black.
For some reason, I have no interest in trading anything from the long side right now. And trading from the short side basically means chasing prices.
We need a Black Day. Let's get it on.
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"For some reason, I have no interest in trading anything from the long side right now. And trading from the short side basically means chasing prices."
ReplyDeleteSo basically trading from the short side is always wrong: you either scale in against the trend or you chase prices during sharp sell-offs. I don't know which one is more dangerous...
I see there was an impressive close, tsk, tsk!
ReplyDeleteGlad I took my little gain on UNH from today, might get a reload tomorrow.
Iguala chingao, PAL kicked butt!
What up, CNAM?
BP: We will clean up every last drop and repair all environmental damage!
ReplyDeleteBetter get going on that!
RoBear - I've got your heavy metal band - "Slip Knot"
ReplyDeleteThey are (were?) horrible.
ReplyDeleteSD ceo on Cramer right now. I'm going to see if someone wants the shares I bought today @ 5.40 for 5.70 :).
ReplyDeleteDid ya' dump 'em?
ReplyDeleteCP- Nope, it looks like it got to about 5.64. I spoke with MOG again today and he said for me to buy as much as I was comfortable with at these levels. I was happy to take the profits from FTWR and dump it into SD. Frankly, I really don't care where it is in 2 weeks or 2 months.
ReplyDeleteI'll do the same thing with PAL/GMO if they stall out here. Probably in HK/XCO though. I'd like to have 25% of my port. into long term energy plays by the time this wash out is through.
ReplyDeleteDJIA futes down -98.
ReplyDeleteNikkei with a 95 handle.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Well, cash doesn't lead to any gains during a sell-off, but at least I'm not concerned with those unpredictable sharp spikes that can, let's face it, cause a great deal of discomfort if one is holding shorts. Especially ultrashorts.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite certain we need a sharp, panic-inspiring drop before it's safe to venture into the long side for any extended period of time.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm almost as certain it occurs sooner rather than later.
Tokyo and Seoul leading the 2% club...
ReplyDeleteewww suncor 28
ReplyDeletemaybe should be buying vxx
2nd- Good! Let me know when you think we're seeing it, my man.
ReplyDeleteMark- Well, I'm sorta seeing it now. Meaning it could happen anytime. In Asia tonight, or in the US tomorrow. Or it could be in 2 days. 2 weeks. I don't really know. But if one is in cash, it doesn't matter. It's more like waiting for the check to clear.
ReplyDeletevb- Be careful with VXX. It's like riding a bucking horse/bronco. I thought I could game it. I can't.
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, looking at the ES tonight, we might not be that far away. I hope there is time to take profits in GMO/PAL if I have to. That would leave me with SGG/SD/PXP/UNG. I'll hold the SSO in the IRA.
ReplyDeleteVB- I'll buy SU @ 25 if I can.
ReplyDeleteyou think it will go to 25?
ReplyDeleteI just read this on bc blog posted by 4ever?. I thought it was good
vb
Top Ten "Run for the Hills" Issues In Progress:
1)BP Gulf Oil Criminal Environmental Disaster still in progress
2)GS, JPM et al Criminal Financial Disaster still in progress
3)Congressional Criminal Behavior for decades still in progess, soon to be replaced by Tea Party Movement Candidates, no bets on better progress
4)North Korea Torpedo; retaliation plans still in progress
5)Afghanistan fighting & killing still in progress
6)Spain deterioration, except for olives(love 'em), still in progress
7)Euro destruction still in progress
8)Financial Bill, written by GS and/or lobbyists, still in progress
9)US Deficit exponentially still in progress
10)Immigration still in progress
Mark- Hope you take this the right way> If you agree we're in a downtrend, why are you holding SGG/SD/PXP/UNG? I haven't been following the posts that closely- assuming you opened positions recently for a bounce?
ReplyDeleteVB- Actually I don't, but if someone want to sell it to me @ 25, I'll be more than happy to baby sit the shares for as long as it takes :). I should say though, some of my confidence is based on doing really well in SGG/PAL/GMO/FTWR. I'm happy to divert those profits/funds into energy plays people are afraid to hold.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteI think the only stability now, is instability.
so, I am selling each day on strength. Just going to hold, watch and pray. I think the gulf spill has me a bit depressed. It is my home . my family has property on the water
http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/the-oil-and-the-loop-current/?scp=4&sq=florida%20oil&st=cse
2nd- I think I might have answered your question without knowing it :). But let me add this...I think this is panic selling. I'm still hearing very good things from my clients. If I have to take profits in PAL/GMO tomorrow I'll be maybe 20% net long. I still like SGG as a seasonal play, but wont let a nice return go by-by.
ReplyDeletePLUS!!! and as you know, I'm really shitty at picking anything up after it has turned up.
ReplyDelete2nd/guys- This is an alert I just received on BAC. The only reason I'm posting it is it kinda reinforces what my clients are telling me. No comment here about BAC.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/ZTEzODFjM
Re: Monday Closed Down!/ Black Tuesday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4428 comments) on Mon, 05/24/2010 - 22:00 #63469 (in reply to #63460)
ReplyDeleteUnder a rock and waiting for prices to come to you is a great idea. I would refer to it as 100% cash.
All of your 'Top Ten' are serious issues, of course. But all were on the trading agenda several hundred DJIA points higher as well. It's the gestalt that traders collectively agree on at any point in time that determines whether and how much each of those issues 'matter' to stock prices.
At some point we may (probably will) get a Black Tuesday (or any other day of the trading week). It may happen tomorrow. Next week. Next month. All of the referenced issues have negative connotations/consequences, and will be priced in either separately or in some combination with the others. The ideal trading scenario, I suppose, is that all ten get priced in at the same time. That kind of makes it easier to 'deal with' for those of us who prefer juggling one 'event' at a time. But that's unlikely.
In the meantime, the beauty of cash is the ability to 'deal with' it all with a minimum of time and effort. Hence allowing prices to come to you trumps trying to short (at least for those of us short on time), IMO.
Mark- I don't doubt it. But the (expected) reaction to that news is unlikely to be immediate, given current sentiment.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sentimentrader.com/
Let's see if it can 'resolve' itself without any positive closes over the next few days.
If not, then we'll have learned something about the indicator.
I think we are in another phase of de-leveraging of the type that took place during the Bear Stearns and Lehman liquidations. I have no idea if it gets as bad as that draw-down but imo the world is more dangerous today.
ReplyDeleteThe dislocations needed to get back to any semblance of balance are beyond any politicians abilities. The dislocations needed to get back any semblance of balance will cause the people to riot.
Very simply the "Western World" is bankrupt. The charade of the gullible continues.
I like the concept of oil and gold in the ground but one must be prepared for pullbacks that defy common sense or as Keynes would say!!!
gl
HK headed for the 2% club. Taiwan joining the club. Seoul upping the ante to 3%.
ReplyDeleteSurprised to see only 29 comments on CC with the market moving in 'their' direction lately.
ReplyDeleteAlright, 30.
ReplyDelete3 bucks till RIG hits it's March 09 low.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly....BP is also 3 bucks off the March lows.
ReplyDeleteNew intraday low in Seoul...
ReplyDeleteSeoul headed for -4%. Kim Jong Il probably smiling at his short on the Kospi.
ReplyDeleteHe actually smiles???
ReplyDeleteHang Seng just broke 19200.
ReplyDeleteRemember over at Bill's blog all the wackadoo right-wing Ron Paul supporters?
ReplyDeleteI haven't bothered to mention it but I have done some reading about Ron and son based on the son's political "viability" of late and I gotta say but I can't take credit for this line, the the shit really doesn't fall far from the bat, does it?:):)
-4.5%...now I'm getting interested in buying.
ReplyDeleteNatGas UP! in the futures. Guys, we might have a real interesting op. tomorrow. :) Watch HEK closely which was up today.
ReplyDeleteHang Seng just gapped down to -515 points, or -2.62%:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/
Nikkei rushing to join the 3% club after opening for the afternoon session.
ReplyDeleteMakes you wonder if Kim Jong Il will be known as the Korean Fat Finger.
ReplyDeletewell fellas, I finally bit the bullet and closed out of my long SPY...lost about 3.8% on 60% of my portfolio...so about 2.0% total. I'm 100% cash now. Good luck to you guys! i'll be back in it next week
ReplyDeleteKim Jong Il- The Asian Fat Finger newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4429 comments) on Tue, 05/25/2010 - 00:17 #63472
ReplyDeleteShould the Kospi hit the minus 7% range (which remains to be seen), he'll become the next international villain with an appendage in his handle hoping to achieve global domination through nuclear detonation of some sort.
Ironic that Auric Goldfinger had a Korean sidekick named Oddjob.
A few predictions...
ReplyDeleteI am not expert on North Korean international relations but it seems that it is in the interest of the N.K's to draw us into a war either to get China's attention, or to raise it's status internationally, or possibly even as a proxy for China.
I now see that the selloff we just had was a smart-money warm up for the next phase, the public participation part of the selling. I always find it remarkable that the smart money seems to know the news days, weeks or even months before the rest of us find out.
I expect the exchange with North Korea to ultimately "go nuclear", as they seek to open up a third front in our international scheme which, frankly, can only be properly defended via the use of nuclear technology. In short, if the war bogs down, if another party seeks to draw down on us during the new conflict (Pakistan, perhaps)? Or if we seem to be losing we will use the most ungodly of all weapons to defend ourselves and our way of life against the tyrrany and cowardice of these marginal players.
North Korea has to be neutralized. It will send the right message to China as well. Don't fuck with the big gringo, he WILL win in the end:), and you will be relegated to the dustbin of history, where you belong.
tof- 2%? I think Mark once said he sometimes loses that much between the time he gets up and the time he starts breakfast.
ReplyDeleteYou made a play. It went against you. You stopped out.
That's called trading.
Had you allowed it to get to say minus 12%, then it's called something else.
You can bet Jong Il is giving the world the fat finger tonight.
ReplyDeleteNot that China belongs in the dustbin of history, nor to refer to China as a marginal player, but basically we do have a decisive military advantage now which we should not, as the Germans did, use preemptively but likewise we should not fear invoking the reaper in the service of the above stated policy goals.
ReplyDeleteI do think tomorrow will be a godawful day in the stock market. The selling could be dramatic.
You know, they are using Botox to treat the depressed personality these days, patients are still depressed but now they're smiling.
ReplyDeleteNeil Young....Now HE belongs in the dustbin of history:)
ReplyDeleteHe did teach the world to sing like Bob Dylan on heroin, which was cool:)
Chickie, Where the hell did you hear Slip Knot. What are you a closet juggalo. Lets get are hatchetmen out and party. If you don't know what I am talking about you need to ask a teenager. I hope I don't get labeled a heavy metal dude. My likes are very much on the line of second's. In fact I am the worlds biggest Neil Young fan. Go ahead ask a trivia question? I know it all.
ReplyDeleteAnyway here is a neil song that describes are current market conditions pretty well.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/neil-young/fork-in-the-road_b_157698.html
There's a bailout coming but it's not for me. It's for all those creeps watching tickers on TV. There's a bailout coming but it's not for me.
I'm a big rock star. My sales have tanked, but I still got you. Thanks! Download this. Sounds like shit.
Keep on bloggin' 'til the power goes out, and your battery's dead.
Twist and Shout. On the radio. Those were the days. Bring 'em back.
There's a bailout coming but it's not for you. It's for all those creeps hiding what they do. There's a bailout coming but it's not for you. Bailout coming but it's not for you.
Got my new flat-screen. Got it repo'd now. They picked it up. Left a hole in the wall. Last Saturday. Missed the Raiders game.
There's a bailout coming but it's not for you. There's a bailout coming but it's not for you. It's for all those creeps hiding what they do.
My idea of a fat finger.....A hydrogen bomb over Kim's house.....
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, it only seems to be an easy strategy to stay in cash until prices stop falling. In reality, I suspect that the first couple of days of the upside will seem "unreasonable," and after that it will seem that it is too late to buy, except for some small speculative positions. So the strategy of gradually making one's portfolio "longer" as the prices come down is also a reasonable one, as it doesn't require any skill in catching the bottom but simply requires a sound risk management. If Mark's plan is to scale in up to at most 25% of his port on the long side, then he really isn't taking much risk, which I define as getting nerve-racking margin calls that force you to go around asking friends for extra cash (which is what I did in October 2008). :)
ReplyDeleteThose are fighting words shark! You want to rumble!
ReplyDeleteBob
I mean the Neil Young remarks.
ReplyDelete"Had you allowed it to get to say minus 12%, then it's called something else."
ReplyDeleteThat would be called "reckless trading," the way I usually do it. :)
Well the market may continue selling tomorrow so I've kept one foot in cash and the other comfortably planted in the pile so either way it should work out fine.
ReplyDeleteMy take on Geithners meeting in China was encouraging in that China agreed to begin allowing the yuan to appreciate, some agreement on trade deficits (market access) was made, and China spoke out(in a subtle way that should get the message across) against N. Korea's aggression.
Could be a bumpy ride, next stop Eurozone...
Hey..Hey!!!! I like Niel Young. What gives? Don't make me post a Neil Sadaka song :)
ReplyDeleteHmmm..10:00pst and there is a little action here :)))) Really looking forward to tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThompson Creek's problems may be to GMO's benefit, this story may explain today's strength in GMO:
ReplyDelete"TORONTO, May 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Thompson Creek Metals Company Inc. ("Company"), one of the world's largest publicly traded, pure molybdenum producers, today announced that it has received notification of a petition filed recently in the Supreme Court of British Columbia by the Stellat'en First Nation claiming that the British Columbia Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources has not fulfilled its duty to consult with or accommodate Stellat'en's asserted aboriginal rights and title interests in relation to the Endako Mine expansion project.
The petition names the Company, a 75% owner of the Endako Mine, as one of the parties involved but does not cite the Company in any of its claims regarding the lack of consultation."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Petition-filed-relating-to-prnews-2680787104.html?x=0&.v=2
CP- Your the master at scooping news!!!
ReplyDeleteThank you, Mark, for posting the e-mail from your MOG about SD, oil and gas. I am glad to see that he is heavily invested in PXP, as I was selling puts on it recently. SD is a risky play, as he acknowledges, and his e-mail is full of "hope" about SD. I'd rather buy something that doesn't need hope to survive, like PXP (I do have a small long-term position in SD now, and I'll probably stop there with SD).
ReplyDeleteMark: what does your MOG think about XOM? I just checked and saw that according to Yahoo, its forward P/E is only 8.53, while for PXP it is 10.11. So is XOM a better deal at these prices?
Come on Sharkie, no need to be so down on Neil! He's a permanent part of American history.
ReplyDeleteHey, hey, my, my, rock and roll can never die! There's more to the picture than meets the eye, hey, hey, my, my.
Choo-choo!
RTN FLIR and SU. Are on my watch list for manana. Can't believe defense sold off today. SU is the purest play on oil. I think it is much better then UCO. As long as oil stays above $60.
ReplyDeleteSo shark who do you listen to? The Darien Blue Balls. Neil is God!
Okay, here's a few Neil Young trivia questions:
ReplyDelete1) What product did Neil design for Lionel?
2) Which was his favorite band?
3) Brief us on his connection to a famous mass murderer?
UTX fellas (if you like defense).
ReplyDeletePerhaps defense sold off following the China conference? (just a wild guess (SWAG?))
By the way, Pratt & Whitney were all over my radar today, they might get their way on the jet-engine contracts?
ReplyDeleteChicky good questions, but open your tired eyes.
ReplyDelete1. i am not sure the name but Neil had a remote paddle wheel train operating system made for his handicapped. CP son to run his Lionel trains. He owned a big part of the company at one time.
2. This is a hard question because it is relative to the time period. When he was growing up it was Cliff Richards.For this album on the blog it was the sex pistols. In the 90s Nirvana.
3. Mass murders well there is a few. But I think you are referring to Charles Manson. Both lived in Topanga Canyon at the same time. I got the revolution blues? Other answers kent state massacre. Topanga canyon drug murders described in tired eye's
Two more Easy Neil Young questions.
ReplyDelete1. Name the Funk superstar that was in Neil's Toronto Rhythm and Blues band.
2. What famous Guitarist was Neil's mentor in Winnipeg?
What's the difference of a 2%, 12%, 25% or 50% loss? Maybe this picture depicts that (not for the squeamish).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/4d073924-ade0-4876-95f5-fb3110f4a365
Thanks for the MOG report mark.
dow -180 here, there's no way it's gonna open that far red, I know that won't happen...
ReplyDeleteIn a preparation for the full-blown panic-driven sell-off tomorrow (which can easily happen since everyone is fixated on February's lows and S&P futures, as of now, are set to open below those lows), I am placing sell limit orders at $23, $24, $25, etc. for 100 shares of SKF and TWM. Let's see how many of these limits get hit tomorrow. :)
ReplyDeleteWhat a mean market! It stands to reason that the February low will be taken out during a large gap down, so as to disallow an "easy" exit for those placing a sell stop at the Feb low. I can only imagine how many stop orders will get hit tomorrow at the open. If enough people have placed their sell stop orders at Feb lows, then there will be few sellers left after all those stops get hit at the open, and so the market will start moving up after the initial gap down.
ReplyDeleteI don't get it
ReplyDeleteAn example...Right now on the timestamp you see a bid for an undetermined size of PAL at 3.12...
So I tried to hit the bid and...nothing.
The other day, and this has happened before, I got "trapped" in PAL for awhile, unable to sell even using market orders! Then, at the exact moment that the big guy(s) actually wanted to buy the stock, they took out a whole bunch of bids and mine marked the bottom of the move...'cause let's face it...nothing makes you want to get out at ANY price like being trapped in a stock.
Ok I just sold a good amount of PAL at my buy price.
ReplyDeleteOk...all out, back to bed, had enuff, wake me when it's over!
ReplyDeleteBrett Michaels.....Why do we still have to watch this jerk? He can't sing and he can't write songs, but he sure is good looking:)
I happen to have a really sore throat and headache, lots of post-nasal drip.
Out of PAL at my buy price:)
ReplyDeleteNo q's asked just got the fuck out.
Wake me when it's over:)
Taking all of summer off. Let the Koreans torpedo each other 9 ways to sunday, can't stand the food anyway:)
testing
ReplyDeletehello
ReplyDeleteRe: Discipline trumps conviction... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4430 comments) on Tue, 05/25/2010 - 08:35 #63482 (in reply to #63480)
ReplyDelete30-1 odds on the twelve? Once in awhile instinct tells you to take a bet with a low player advantage- discipline keeps you out, and it stings.
Right now, I would almost take a flyer on three twelves in a row, which I've seen happen more than once. Can we gap down hard three days in a row? If you're going to make that bet, now's the time.
1. Name the Funk superstar that was in Neil's Toronto Rhythm and Blues band.
ReplyDeleteBootsie Collins, and yes, he dressed like a pimp the whole of the time:)
2. What famous Guitarist was Neil's mentor in Winnipeg?
The name recedes into history, but Young's biggest influence was a deaf guy who was missing fingers, which explains Neil Young's guitar technique:)
And it's a little known fact that even Bob Dylan thinks Neil Young can't sing, which is an astounding thing:)
Sore throat, headache, and lots of post-nasal drip?
ReplyDeleteVery common morning-after syndrome in the eighties ;)
Can't believe DJIA futes are down only -200. WTF- let's take it down -1000.
ReplyDeleteI can say things like that now that tof has cleared the table ;)
ReplyDeleteCan't believe I'm going to be spending the best part of the trading day at the local tire store getting a slow leak taken care of.
ReplyDeleteI suppose I could take it in later, but I can't stand waiting. FIFO. That's my motto when it comes to taking care of errands.
ReplyDeleteNow -230.
ReplyDeleteIt could end in the green. But my take is it ends near the lows.
ReplyDeletehey fellas...looks like a doozy of a day. in my sleep i had a dream that this drop will turn into an ugly one that when it gets to about 950 it will cause a real panic in the bond markets, thinking the us will be heading for a double dip...that will provoke fears of a us debt crisis, causing rates to spike and gold to spike...thus, Bill's TOG. i hope this doesn't happen but I may have to start planning for it (i.e., investing for it).
ReplyDeleteeven smart trend is predicting storming weather
ReplyDeleteThis is not likely to happen starting today as the European sovereign debt and deficit worries are being fanned by flames of additional fears from rising tensions in Asia between North and South Korea. Thus today a trade-term downtrend that started yesterday is likely to accelerate into an even sharper selloff. Probably the Asian scare, like the financial reform legislative threats to future banking profits, is overblown and will pass leading fairly quickly to a reduction in investor anxiety. However, even better-than-expected reports out this morning, discussed below, concerning declining housing prices and rising consumer confidence are unlikely to be good enough news to ignite a near-term rally. For the next two days the market indices will be fortunate to bounce down and up near support levels and investors will be best served to keep their powder dry until this siege passes.
GMO off @ 3.24. Just following through with profit taking like I said. PAL...not so lucky yet :)
ReplyDeleteNah I don't do coke...
ReplyDeleteThat shit's no good for you:)
Feeling good about being out of the market also.
I will not play until things are much more resolved.
Famous last words, guess s&p is capable of opening where it will.
ReplyDeleteGive me a bargain folks, take 'er on down!
Damn...we almost got 14.40 on BAC.
ReplyDeleteHEK will not come down to me. GMO doing much better than I expected.
ReplyDeleteThere was a nice trade in C today if your were quick.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that stocks are being bought at al is eloquent testimony to the tenacity of the day trader, for whom there's no calamity too horrible to be scalped for a dime:)
ReplyDeleteYou would have to be a pretty sick pup to step ino this market on anything but an intra-day basis.
GS green and running.
ReplyDeleteWow...there's way more nose pickers out there today than I thought.. (I can't say bottom pickers)
ReplyDeletePAL off @ 3.19. Same reasons.
ReplyDeleteI nearly placed a bid last night for GMO around $3.02(bottom trendline) but I really want a much better price.
ReplyDeleteBidding HEK @ 5.06. Doubt I'll get it.
ReplyDeleteI predict we will close below this morning's low.
ReplyDeleteNo one wants to get caught long stocks and then have war break out among the Koreans. Oh and btw...what is it about human beings?
The Jews and the Arabs
The Irish and the English
The Pak's and the Indians
Why is it that the very people who are, objectively speaking, most similar to each other typically the worst of enemies? And yes the Jews do take offense when I suggest they are very similar to Arabs (referring here to the Sapphardic, not Europeans, who are are basically Jewish in name only, having been converted by some Tsar or other at the point of a gun.
One day soon we will no longer be here.
Wow what a great sale Mark.
ReplyDeleteCP- Bounced right off 3.02. I was watching it also. I damn near added, but want to stick with my plan for now.
ReplyDeleteWe're reaching that point in the morning when the new longs will start wondering why the market's not going up...and begin dumping.
ReplyDeletePalladium and gold are doing ok though.
And you know, we really should disband Goldman Sachs and restrict the use of computers in trading.
BC this morning:
ReplyDelete"I’ll get right to the point. Thirteen trading sessions ago, the financial services industry and the mainstream media combined to explain that the May 6 market crash was just a fat-fingered Joe or Jane and that capital markets and government regulators needed to intervene with more controls. Calling them flat-out liars, I showed them the middle finger."
Even Bill's getting ornery:)
shark - What's the saying..."The dinosaurs got ripped off"
ReplyDeleteGS breached 135 but quickly recovered
Mark - Didn't you have a subscription to Stratfor at one time? I wonder what their assessment of this Korean episode is, I assume it's not on their red alert list...
ReplyDeleteFTWR bounced off 3.88 again.
ReplyDeleteCP- I still do. I'll check after work.
ReplyDeleteBill understates everything so he can go back and cherry pick subjects then claim he was correct.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me he's just plain wrong more often than he'd like to admit.
Vad got this one right.
Looks like the drillers might have found a bottom. (Fingers crossed)
ReplyDeleteThis is like running every yellow light ti make a doctor's appointment only to sit in the waiting room for an hour before getting to see the doctor.
ReplyDeleteAwfully strange how we knew the target would be 1040 and now we're here. No surprises, we just were skeptical it would happen.
ReplyDeleteSo what are we skeptical of now?
I'm skeptical it wont find a new low, so that's what I'm waiting for....
FTFL - I bought a little this morning at $6.30. The company has over $100 Million in cash, no debt, and is worth about $220 Million. They are earning about 0.50 to 0.60 per share and just started paying out a dividend of $0.20/share per quarter (about 13% dividend). They have had a ton of insider buying recently...They were spun off from Eastman Chemical a few years ago.
ReplyDeleteI would advise checking them out...
Bidding WATG @ 6.57 GTC.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks. I'll take a look. Crazy orders this am.
ReplyDeleteLast I remember hearing from JB, he was heading out to make offers on local real estate.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm a sucker for these type of plays. I checked it quickly. I think I read an article about it last year. How did you come across it?
ReplyDeleteRemember, the grim reaper, ah the margin clerk will most likely be doing its dirty deeds this afternoon.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpmILPAcRQo
Then again maybe they press the buy buttons.
ReplyDeleteAll right...scaling back into HEK @ 5.17.
ReplyDeleteRIG basically held 54...went short some Nov 40 puts
ReplyDeleteT3D- How you been my man?
ReplyDeleteBidding AONE @ 8.04.
ReplyDeleteCiao ladies. I fully expect to be nicely green upon my return :) GO Suga....
ReplyDeleteMarko, OK, have not done hardly anything for about 12 days. The only activity was picking up CHK/PD which pays 5.5% while I wait. At times like this I prefer to observe.
ReplyDeleteWe are leaving Friday for the Alaskan wilderness for and week and cruising the inside passage for seven days. Maybe I'll get lucky and catch a King Salmon in Kenai. Actually we can't wait, I have more activities line up then time.
BTW, I always wanted to kiss a bears nose, I hope she does not mind.
This is a scary chart.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/6ab1d968-d898-4f82-8307-917014cac494
How many other states have severely under-funded pension liabilities and hoe are they going to pay them?
I see the market didn't gap down that hard this morning -- haven't people learned to place stop orders yet? Evey bull was supposed to have a sell stop order at the February low!
ReplyDeleteOnly the first layer of my sell limit orders was hit today: at $23 for 100 shares of SKF and 100 shares of TWM.
I also noticed that HNUZF is doing its crazy stuff again: it is down 7.8% while HNU.TO, which it is supposed to be tracking, is down only 2.8%. We had the same discrepancy two days ago, and then yesterday, when it got corrected, HNUZF was up 5% while UNG was down 1%. Today, I couldn't resist and bought 500 shares of HNUZF at $4.69, placing a sell limit order for these shares at $5.30. UNG is still holding the $6.90 level, which seems to be its support.
Bidding FTWR @ 3.88.
ReplyDeleteMorning David :)
Actually, as a buyer in this mess, I'm lowering my bid on FTWR to 3.84.
ReplyDeleteBidding CHK @ 19.50.
ReplyDeleteDavid..RE XOM. I know MOG likes CVX/TLM better, but I'll ask. We're having lunch tomorrow....@ a gas station :)
ReplyDeleteANN/HD doing really well. Hmmm.
ReplyDeleteNeil Young considers his work with Crazy Horse as his best artistic experience.
ReplyDeleteHey - Too bad BP can't just bribe all those millions of barrels of crude away. Bet there's a porno connection in there somewhere....
"Gas Station" - That's a great name for a fast-food restaurant serving grease burgers. I like "Food Box" as well, sounds depression era.
ReplyDeleteDCI - Has been getting bids all day, I might wanna take a position there if tomorrow's a repeat selling day.
ReplyDeleteMark/David- Now I know who the real gamblers are ;)
ReplyDeleteCE/XCO doing really well also. UNG showing some strength going into hurricane season.
ReplyDeleteOIH goes green.
ReplyDeleteVIX red.
ReplyDeleteMark goes green...
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking about yesterday's closing action.
ReplyDeleteRIG/BP green....
ReplyDeleteMark - Same here man ...TGB, NG & some short puts that I'm closing out
ReplyDeleteCP- Me too...That's why I'm chiming in now why I can :)
ReplyDeleteWell done Kyle!!!
ReplyDeleteThe Natgas play today turned out to be XCO...
ReplyDeleteI went out for a walk and now I see that UNG has turned green! Someone NG pit traders must have read my assessment about $6.90 being the support for UNG, which did hold up over the last 2 days on the intraday chart, and now UNG staged a nice rally off this support level. I am glad I picked up some HNUZF at $4.69 today! If UNG is up again tomorrow, HNUZF might already be at $5.50!
ReplyDeleteI really like the British guy on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteX/AA green.
ReplyDeleteSo maybe most of the sell stop orders did get hit this morning, and the sellers did indeed disappear for a little while...
ReplyDeleteXLF green....
ReplyDeleteSD could be in for one nasty short squeeze if the shorts panic. 30% of the float is short.
ReplyDeleteCE is flying...
ReplyDeleteC/BAC green...GS?...wellllll....
ReplyDeleteXLB tells me the risk trade is far from dead.
ReplyDeleteTaking a ST position in the buy-and-hold: 50/50 FIDSX/FSENX.
ReplyDeleteIn a way, we got our Black Tuesday. And it was bought.
Now we bounce. Then we sell off again.
ReplyDeletePlaying a bounce newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4431 comments) on Tue, 05/25/2010 - 15:56 #63530
ReplyDeleteTaking ST positions in the 'buy-and-hold' account > 50/50 FIDSX/FSENX.
I think we got our Black Tuesday, and it was bought. Looking for a bounce, followed by renewed selling.
guys - i'm putting my chips back on the table at close...this action seems kinda sorta bullish to me.
ReplyDeleteRE: FTFL > mark, i found that one randomly. i think i was looking for alternative fuel plays and came across it. there is a big hedge fund that has been buying up a crapload of it over time. they have so much cash on hand and are cash flow and income positive that they should add a great deal of value to the investor looking for streams of income.
tof- Good to be on the same page for a change ;)
ReplyDeleteI noticed that my total portfolio balance was about $500 higher at the close than at 10am (I ended being up about 1K for the day), which suggests that I might even be slightly net long now, after closing some of my puts and some of my ultrashorts over the past couple of weeks. So I am in the bounce camp as well! :) A nice bounce would allow me to unload my TBT and UCO with profit, and get me ready for the next leg down. It is hard to believe that S&P won't drop below $1000 before the summer ends.
ReplyDeleteRe: Playing a bounce newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4432 comments) on Tue, 05/25/2010 - 16:29 #63535 (in reply to #63532)
ReplyDeletePz- It certainly felt like indiscriminate selling in the first two hours. My take at this point:
(a) Seoul 'recovered' from its nadir last night as well, which likewise indicated (temporary) exhaustion on the part of sellers.
(b) If I wait for 'confirmation' of a bounce, it may too late. After all, my time horizon for this trade may be as short as a matter of days.
(c) Any rally in the indexes is likely to leave undecided overnight boarders stranded.
(d) Should the indexes continue down, well- there were far worse entry points than the one I chose, and I'll disembark with no regrets.
Sure feels like someone's screwing with our heads, either that or the selling's done with b/c buyers certainly showed up.
ReplyDeleteI didn't watch the afternoon action, so I have to take your word for it.
ReplyDeleteI did hear CNBC utter something, once, about Korea tensions being overblown...Trish Reagan I think.
From there the market just basically went up.
Mentioned were the ideas that Kim wants to solidify his sons bid for power by creating a crisis...? Kind of strange, but that's what they said.
Anyway it's not the kind of market you can believe in...until you can.
Remember though, with a 3 day familial group torture session, er, I mean, holiday weekend scheduled, plus sell in May and everything else, I wouldn't expect much of a rally.
Which means you'll probably get 1000 points to the upside, because the market seems to make it's movements during the time when it's impossible/improbable for most players to participate.
I plan on not even watching the market for the next few days, that's how much I now consider this market "opportunity" to be cooked, done, stick a fork in it, but as I said.......
TZA getting nailed to the cross after hours...
ReplyDeleteWell, I'm in no hurry until I see some follow through, if the action's contrived then they probably just sucked in some new longs to fleece.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for a global follow through at this point, otherwise I'll stick with scalping instead of adding to overnight longs.
Everyone and his brother was calling for the 10% pullback to give them an entry, now let's see if they're prepared to follow through on their promise....
Here is what David Rosenberg wrote this morning about deciding when adventurous souls should venture into the long side:
ReplyDelete"We need two solid up-days in a row (a follow-through after a big bounce is vital) with some major volume attached to show participation (October 18-19, 1990; October 20-21, 1987; October 14-15, 1998; October 10-11, 2002; March 10-11. 2009 — we can’t help but notice how October usually shows up as the capitulation month!). This may be technical turnaround talk, but bottoms and tops in the market are typically technical events, as history suggests. There is not one general piece of data, sentiment indicator or government intervention that rings the alarm bell at the peak or the trough. Again, it is best to let Mr. Market do the talking."
we have been had
ReplyDeleteThe same people who got us addicted to cigarettes and then prescription drugs and trans fats have gotten us hooked on day trading. But they are the wizard with all the controls to clean out our bank accounts.
miss mose
Easy everyone...Put down any weapons...
ReplyDeleteGS yesterday....
More News related to Analyst Comments
May 24, 2010 2:57 PM EDT
"Despite the recent 12% market sell-off, Goldman Sachs' U.S. equity strategists have not altered their fundamental view that U.S. stocks will go higher. They see the S&P 500 rising to 1,300 mid-year, before ending the year at 1,250.
Lost in the headlines is that the S&P 500 is up 60% from its trough in March 2009, Goldman notes.
While the firm recognizes the European risk, they said only 10% of the S&P 500's revenue comes from Europe, Middle East and Africa combined.
Goldman Sachs said this pullback is consistent with sell-offs that occurred in recoveries following bottoms in 1974, 1982, 1987, 1990 and 2002. The firm's data shows that multiple sell-offs of between 7% and 15% occurred during the first two years of these recoveries.
According to the firm's data:
* The October 1974 correction had three corrections of 5% or more, with the median correction 13.6%.
* The August 1982 correction had three corrections of 5% or more, with the median correction 6.9%.
* The December 1987 correction had six corrections of 5% or more, with the median correction 7%.
* The October 1990 correction had six corrections of 5% or more, with the median correction 5.9%.
* The October 2002 correction had three corrections, with the median correction of 8.2%.
* This correction (March 2009) has had five 5% or more corrections so far with the median correction of 7.1%.
They also said the correction has been orderly as "sector returns have been exactly in-line with beta-adjusted expected performance." Telecom Services was the top performing sector down 3.4% while Financials was the worst performing sector down 9.7%.
The firm has a top-down EPS forecasts of $76 for 2010 and $90 for 2011, representing growth of 33% and 20%, respectively."
mark, you still believe the news????
ReplyDelete(but I must admit, My dream last night had mark in sonoma and there was new building everywhere. but seems it was only happening in sonoma so du your own diligence)
Just the paper boy Mam...call editorial :)
ReplyDeleteHow ya' doing?
not good mark, I am eating frozen quiche cooked in the microwave with cheap pinot grigio. I called on a client today but was interupted when the other saleperson, came running in screaming she had been stung by a big flying bug. The onsite manager said they had 2 sales in all of 2009 but things were picking up they are up t 2-3 month now.
ReplyDeletewhat are you having for dinner? and please post a picture if you can, especially of all that building I saw in my dream. It was lush green hills and new lumber and I hope it is true for you.
ms mose;y
Regarding the GS view: maybe, maybe. The corrections tend to end when the news seem most gloomy. I'll close half of my remaining ultrashorts when S&P crosses 1100, and the other 1/2 when it crosses 1120. Then, I'll try to see if I'll have the agility to re-open these positions when S&P crosses these thresholds on the way down once again.
ReplyDeleteBetter yet, I am placing a sell stop limit order at $21.50/$21 for 1/2 of my SKF and TWM (200 shares each order). Will close the other 1/2 of SKF & TWM if S&P crosses above 1120.
ReplyDeleteVB- I'll have to get back to you on dinner. Haven't been to the store yet, and my butcher makes that call.
ReplyDeleteFrozen quiche?...Damn, I'm really sorry.
Wow...Obama is in SF for a fund raiser for Boxer. The crowd outside is NOT very pro-Boxer..and this is SF.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteJust for the record, I'll note that as we approached today's low, volume dried up.
ReplyDeleteAlthough below, S&P remains within 3% of the 200DMA and RSI(7) has not yet turned up through 30 but may soon...