Tuesday, May 25, 2010
5/26/10 Light My Fire
You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you
Girl, we couldn't get much higher
Come on baby, light my fire
Come on baby, light my fire
Try to set the night on fire
The time to hesitate is through
No time to wallow in the mire
Try now we can only lose
And our love become a funeral pyre
Come on baby, light my fire
Come on baby, light my fire
Try to set the night on fire, yeah
I spent the early morning at the tire shop, watching the DJIA/NDQ number flashing on a news channel, still leaning bearish.
I arrived home mid-morning and watched prices stall around the minus 200 level for the DJIA. Started watching a DVD.
Returned to watching prices the final hour, and about 20 minutes prior to close it occurred to me that I had turned bullish. Black Tuesday, at least on this go-round, was over. The time to hesitate is through- let's play the bounce.
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sexiest man that ever lived
ReplyDeleteVal Kilmer must come in a close second, then.
ReplyDeleteFF- Pointed this one out a while ago...CPE. Volatile as hell, but interesting. I'm too loaded with energy plays.
ReplyDeletejust watched the whole jm clip.
ReplyDeleteone word
Windowpane
Hmm, all my indicators seem to be green... Too good to be true, or is everyone about to jump on the train as it leaves the station?
ReplyDeleteMaybe gold was our first clue this morning....
TK calling for SPX to rally strongly to 1150-1170 before resuming its slide. Based on his WAG system- 'wild ass guess.' Like his sense of humor.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to worry about the number of traders calling for a rally.
ReplyDelete"I'm too loaded"
ReplyDeletePractice makes purrrfect.
blotter\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
ReplyDeleteI teed that one up just for you CP!!
ReplyDeleteI'm goin' to bed early so's I can check out the overnight action before open and prepare.
ReplyDeleteG-night all!
Nighty night CP. I'll have mine easy-over please.
ReplyDeleteHere are some of Soros's 3/21/10 holdings he bought a slug of gold with a lot of jr. miners. I threw in a few others. FWIW
ReplyDeleteKGC GBG
GDX IVN
ABX IAG
GFI CXPO
AU JAG
AUY MFN
BPZ NSU
CIE SSRI
XCO GRS
SA NAK
EGO BSX
ANV GOOG
BEXP GTE
GSS BRY
GBG AEZ
IVN HAWK
IAG TEO
CXPO SLRC
JAG WPRT
BEXP WFR
GSS BFR
SNCR
Nighty night everyone, you too Mark.
One "fly in the ointment" for the upcoming rally: the CDX.NA.HY (high-yield bond spread with Treasuries) posted a huge jump today, which suggests that the risk in the system is still increasing...
ReplyDeleteThe index futures are way off their highs earlier this evening -- the rally isn't looking too decisive now. We all got the feeling that it's time to go long, so there is a good chance that we will all be proven wrong. Maybe what we saw was simply exhaustion of sellers *for the day*, after many stop orders were triggered in the morning. However, there might also be no buyers at this level tomorrow, after all quick traders have made their trades today in preparation for tomorrow's rally.
ReplyDeleteIn order to give my ultrashorts a little more room, I am lowering the stop price on my stop limit orders for SKF and TWM to $21.25 (the limit is still at $21).
Well, apparantly we were lied to about N.Korea.
ReplyDeleteThey waited until we were in drastically oversold conditions and then THEY launched news stories which were false, but which were designed to get every responsible person to sell their stock.
These azzholz ought to be investigated. Kim can't even make a shoe bomb....Or a fart bomb for that matter.
We got an azz skerewdiddling.
Have you heard ONE WORD bout those fogues Stalinist in the past two days?
ReplyDeleteNot one frigging word. The N.K's served their purpose.
And now I'm supposed to chase stocks up on a Thursday?
You can stick it in your azz:)
A thursday before a holiday weekend. Yeah, right:)
ReplyDeleteI would heed BC's following comment from this morning:
ReplyDelete"I don’t think the overnight action today is a significant move in capital markets. But, what I do think is that there could well be a rally today that traps those who are greedy. I continue to believe that traders ought to take profits and go to cash.
"But I also think many of you will think I am crazy if, as and when you see higher prices."
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The indices were creamed on the open but quickly found their low and mounted a decent reversal. This is a pattern we (me and my
peeps) have dubbed an OGRe (which stands for Opening Gap Reversal).
We didn't discover it, we just named it. See my website for more on gaps.
The above suggests that we could be in for a bit of a bounce from oversold. However, this in and of itself isn't reason to buy. So far, it still appears that the slide out of the recent Gatekeeper remains intact.
As usual though, honor your stops just in case.
Re: Those playing a bounce newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4433 comments) on Wed, 05/26/2010 - 09:20 #63570
ReplyDeleteI would read the third paragraph of Bill's morning call.
BP @ 42.13. Interesting volume spike right before the open.
ReplyDeleteBill's take on PAL
ReplyDelete"Last evening, one or more of you remarked that North American Palladium (Amex:PAL and TSE:PDL) may represent a great price today, and I urged people to avoid it. On April 20, the stock hit a well-hyped high of US$5.35. The low on May 20 was $3.02. In the interim, the company did a $100 million financing. Management reported that the palladium mine is now in production (again), and that the gold mine has now reached "commercial" production status. Why then the crashing price?
I have my reasons for being critical. It’s certainly nothing personal, as I don’t know the people or trade the stock, nor has it to do with the palladium market; but it does come from my mining team’s assessment of quality of the operator. I’ll leave it at that because I have no interest in studying the company further."
So how were all the world's problems that were so damn bad magically resolve themselves?
ReplyDeleteWhat a bunch of crap!
PAL - I'll admit I haven't looked into the 100M financing and don't have the foggiest what it was about but prior PAL was quite well liked by many well healed traders.
ReplyDeleteWas it all a rouse? Couldn't tell ya' but I doubt it.
BP- Off at 42.73. Might have been a rumor? Enough for me.
ReplyDeleteKorea - All this noise is purely BS, South Korea is pissed and rightly so for the apparent attack from the North, if it's such a big deal then why not send a get well card?
ReplyDeleteBC - Does he ever have an entry to share? Hell yea, a couple days ago he suggested shorting Treasuries and today he's suggesting going long.
ReplyDeleteWhich is it? We'll find out this Sunday!
Prior to that, Bill made this comment on the board's beloved "PAL."
ReplyDeleteRe: North American Palladium
Submitted by Bill Cara (1524 comments) on Tue, 05/25/2010 - 22:27 #63543 (in reply to #63526)
BillySundance,
Re North American Palladium, I urge you to look elsewhere.
We are often surprised at the winners among the precious metals juniors, but if you are looking for a potential Kentucky Derby winner, you shouldn't be looking at the mule pull on Tater Day down near Possum Trot. :-)
It was nice reading this after in after hours mkt I had bought PAL for the first time maybe not the first.
In 3.18 out 3.30 for this sardine. In and out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49H0IfoILwQ
Well...The first mini-dip was bought. Sure happy I spit the bit on BP. What a dick head.
ReplyDeleteDamn...Home builders are screaming.
Good to see the NAS leading.
T3D- Have a great trip, man!!!
My daughters 3rd grade class for some reason is having swimming classes this week. Get this, 1/2 of the kids can't Fing swim. Good job parents.
ReplyDeleteDX is spiking...careful.
ReplyDeleteMark BP is really damaged goods same for RIG which I sold puts way to soon. I think in this type of situation again (pray not for the environment) I'll invoke 2nd's three day rule.
ReplyDeleteHeck TOT has been crushed also without the albatross, RIG buyers will be rewarded longer term with pe of 6.45 with eps of $9.01.
Thanks Mark, mentally we already left.
.75 spread in FTFL...
ReplyDeleteT3D- Yeah, it was a day trade only. I have enough energy plays already.
ReplyDeleteNatty is cooking :)
"if you are looking for a potential Kentucky Derby winner, you shouldn't be looking at the mule pull on Tater Day down near Possum Trot."
ReplyDeleteYea, sure.
AONE is charged up today :)...I really crack myself up.
ReplyDeleteCP- Nice job holding tight with GMO. I think I talked myself into letting it go the night before and not what the tape was telling me.
ReplyDeleteCE @ 28.21.
ReplyDeleteVIX under 30.
ReplyDeleteDrillers are running now... Green on SD and 2 % away on PXP.
ReplyDeleteMan, the small cap crap I chart are flying.
ReplyDeleteBidding FTWR @ 3.85.
ReplyDeleteX @ 46.20 on PP for a day trade.
ReplyDeleteSimon Johnson, MIT professor and author of 13 bankers at a luncheon.
ReplyDeleteCourtesy of Newton
Points he made:
+ There is no social value to having a bank larger than $100 billlion. Yet our six larger banks are now 62% of the U.S. economy, versus 56% when this mess started a couple of years ago.
+ The big six will fund another boom with cheap borrowing.we don’t know what it will be. It won’t be housing. But it will go bust with huge consequences, just like the last one funded by the banks.
+ There is no chance of breaking up the big banks under the present proposed financial reform legislation. They successfully lobbied against that.
+ The Chinese called Hank Paulson (our treasurer at the time) up and said if you force us to take a loss on Fannie and Freddie, we’ll take our money out of the u.s.Our government then bailed out Fannie and Freddie and the Chinese got all their money back. Fannie and Freddie should now be euthanized.
+ It’s worse in Europe. There’s less openness. The banks have much worse performing loans than even ours.
+ What going to happen now? Throwing money at a problem will stablize the problem for the short-term, but won’t affect the long-term problem.
Mark - GMO is my potato in the compost pile, only a couple green sprouts showing but if I can keep the raccoons off it there's a good meal to be had.
ReplyDeleteI blew it this time around too, really. Looks like the gap may not close after-all and I'll have to hope for another opportunity in the low 3's for a decent flip.
PAL - If it doesn't return to $5 I'll be surprised. No position
Red close
ReplyDelete+ IMO, the right time to turn the screws on banks is after economic recovery(employment growth curve) has progressed to the point where banks are raking in the cash again(outrageous, undeserved gains lead to reckless behavior) and whistling a happy tune, not when they're struggling to keep from drowning.
ReplyDeleteI call it discipline, why does everyone always appear to think along a short time horizon?
Red close - Too soon, bounce off the 200DMA first?
ReplyDeleteI'll bet the Treasury auction this week somehow managed quite well (nothing to see here)...
ReplyDeleteStop in X to preserve a 100 buck gain. See you guys at the close.
ReplyDeleteStrong earnings won't stop market's fall
ReplyDeleteEven as companies thrive, the stock market is in free fall: What's an investor to do?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/strong-earnings-wont-stop-markets-fall-2010-05-26?link=kiosk
food for thought
Actually on 2nd thought article is mediocre.
ReplyDeleteApparently not everyone thinks the magnificent sell-off was an over-correction?
ReplyDeleteshark - You might be right...GS having problems
ReplyDeleteI just saw an add where the FBI is supposedly hiring ages 18-25. So isn't that age discrimination, or what?
ReplyDelete"Morgan Stanley: Get out of cash and into global stocks"
ReplyDeleteCalling a top, or good advice?
I just watched cnbc the first time in a long time during the day. Wow very informative. 15 minutes were spent on a winter super bowl in 2014 and the next was on privacy controls on facebook which does not even have a ticker. For some reason I thought we were on the precipice of financial Armageddon. I did learn valuable things. America must be a great country. If Kevin Knead can get a job on TV anyone can and that pasty white redhead entertainment reporter is a hottie.
ReplyDeleteThe sell stop orders I placed yesterday for 200 shares of TWM and SKF were hit today at $21.25. SKF is now above that price but TWM is still below it. The indexes don't look too strong, though. Hence, I placed a buy stop/limit order for 200 shares of TWM at $21.50/$21.75, so as to reload it in the event the market decides not to rally.
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, I just moved down the stop on TWM to $21.25, so as to buy it at the same price as the one at which I sold it this morning.
ReplyDeleteThat order was just filled. So this morning I was only shaken out of 200 shares of SKF at $21.25 (out of 500 total that I had). TWM is still intact (400 shares) and SPY puts are still intact.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I have just re-purchased 100 shares of SKF at $21.83 (out of the 200 shares I sold at $21.25 this morning).
ReplyDeleteYeah, and I forgot to mention: UNG hit my sell limit order today at $7.33 for the 250 shares I purchased at $6.93 a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteThe UNG daily chart today is almost perfectly correlated with that of S&P. I guess the NG traders are focusing on the demand side of the NG equation for now...
ReplyDeleteGood guess, shark, about the red close today. The Market is very pedantic about making sure that the majority gets screwed: if everyone expects a rally, it ain't gonna happen.
ReplyDeleteI am glad that I jumped back into the ultrashorts today at the first signs of trouble...
Added to FTWR right at the close. 3.76. You can see my order fill :))
ReplyDeleteVery solid day here. I'm actually pleased with overall market. Love the chop...Plenty of nervous hands.
AONE...1.2M share fill at the close.
ReplyDeleteSharkie - Good call, headed to S&P 995?
ReplyDelete"China to review Eurozone holdings"....
1M order fill in HEK at the close.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Mickey Mouse can't keep his mouth shut :).
ReplyDeleteYes, I did get stopped out of X for a Benjamin.
ReplyDeleteBoy, big fills across the board at the close. I hope those are strong hands :).
ReplyDeleteThere are a few saying we're going down hard < 1000 but few believe them.
ReplyDeleteAssuming we do see less than 1K, would that be our lights out scenario, or will it be a temporary firs sale buying opportunity?
I was thinking if China were reviewing their eurozone holdings it might actually be good news in that they may be going to join bailout efforts.
If that's how it goes down, then sub 1K would present a buying opportunity.
Runnin' with the Devil!!!!
ReplyDeleteArt Linkletter has passed. :(
ReplyDeleteI closed most of the ultrashorts in my OptionsHouse short-term trading account (and became net long) right before the January sell-off, and then re-opened the ultrashorts right at the bottom of the sell-off -- how much worse can it get? Well, that account has finally closed green for the year today (up 22% in May so far)! Both of my other longer term accounts in Scottrade and Etrade (one is fully long with crappy Canadian explorers and the other one is fully hedged with XLF and XHB shorts) are green today as well (up a total of 4K or so), so I would agree with Mark about today being a good day in the market. :)
ReplyDeleteWe're a gnat's butt away from piercing the 3% below 200DMA "time to go short" folks, either this is a great opportunity for long side exposure or pain is about to increase.
ReplyDeleteThanks Guys!
ReplyDeleteAs long as the Euro drops we will have a hard time rallying.
cp, yep, we all gulped the koolaid.
ReplyDeleteI am mostly cash on sidelines. If we dive, I load up on gold.
time to play smart. no more gmo ing around
art linketter? sorry to hear about him passing.. wow, he was old when i was in kindegarten.
ReplyDeleteBP - Kinda sounds like the well kill is working.
ReplyDeleteInteresting divergence. AH the ES is up a hair and the SPY is off an additional .6%. Damn, I sure hope I'm right and those were strong hands picking up those block trades at the close.
ReplyDeleteCP- If your right about BP killing that well, tomorrow will be really interesting. Can I have a sip? It's vodka/cran right?
Oh, no....Why am I looking at our old friend YRCW????
ReplyDeleteYou're crazt dude, don't bother with YRCW, there's plenty of other beat-up stuff out there.
ReplyDeleteVodka/cran sounds good.
BP didn't do much there at the end...
2nd- I agreed with you last night about some potential over bullishness, and kinda expected something like we had today.
ReplyDeleteNow, after today's action, watching s few news programs, and reading a few blogs...no problem about any over confidence. Max pain?? A gap and go tomorrow. Shorts trapped, bulls left thinking WTF.
Of course, this is easy for me to say after a solid day overall.
Bet we close nicely green tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteThey'll take it down to 1055 briefly then run it on up.
ReplyDeleteThere are lots of gaps to fill...
ReplyDelete