Wednesday, May 26, 2010
5/27/10 While My Guitar Gently Weeps
I look at the world and I notice it's turning
While my guitar gently weeps
With every mistake we must surely be learning
Still my guitar gently weeps
This is the version that sounds like George was recording inside a cold-water flat in Manhattan on a bleak winter afternoon.
I expected we would close in the red today. I also 'sensed' that FIDSX/FSENX would close in the green, which they did.
There's a market law that mandates a shakedown of weak hands prior to taking off. If we do take off tomorrow, it should be with a gap up.
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No gap up, they'll be retesting 1055 while I'm busy prepping for the trip.
ReplyDeleteOK, in case the market really takes off tomorrow, I am placing a sell stop limit order at $21.8/21.5 for the 100 shares of SKF I picked up today at $21.83.
ReplyDeleteAlso, once again, I am placing a sell stop limit order at $21.25/$21 for 200 shares of TWM (out of 400 that I have).
ReplyDeleteCP- I don't know man. I know the ES and cash are different vehicles, but the low in the ES today was exactly 1055. Right now it is 1065, up .4% from the close.
ReplyDeleteI also spent about an hour just now watching a live CNN news conference by BP with a real time video of the top kill. My one beer take? I think they've got it. Sure as hell looks like mud blow off clouds to me, not oil. Damn, I sure hope so, regardless of it's effect on the market.
Hmmm..I'm surprised I missed this one. BMRN. I know the CEO through casual friends. Orphan drug co. here. No news, but the chart/sector are interesting to me.
ReplyDeleteMark - I think they've got to take it back to 1055 first but if not that's fine with me as I'm prepared for that as well.
ReplyDeleteI'm just sayin' if they take it past 1055 it'll be hard for me to add.
Man...The ES is all over the place tonight, but the buck is weakening and the Euro is rising.
ReplyDeleteOK conspiracy theorists...BP starts it's top kill today...Obama to observe the area on Friday...Do I see a 2nd shooter over there on the grassy knoll :)
Come on, you don't get this material anywhere else!!
BTW...am I the only one that has the live feed of the well head running 24/7 on my computer :).
ReplyDeleteThat's MUD BABY!!!!!
MUD!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHow Fing amazing is this. I'm sitting here in Petaluma, Ca., watching a 1st time ever attempt at an engineering feat that never has been done live on my computer in the gulf of Mexico at 5,000 ft.
ReplyDeleteHoly crap....I think it's slowing down :))))))
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK, May 26 (Reuters) - Shares of Sallie Mae, a specialty lender to students, rose on Wednesday after high profile
ReplyDeleteinvestor Jonathon Jacobson valued the company 50 percent to more than 100 percent higher than its current value.
In his first presentation before the 15th Annual Ira Sohn Investment Research Conference, Jacobson said Sallie Mae was
worth between $15 and $25 a share.
"Critics would have you believe that without FFELP (Federal Family Education Loan Program) the prospects for Sallie Mae
are bleak. I disagree. On a go-forward basis, Sallie Mae will provide very attractive returns," said Jacobson, who made a
rare public appearance.
FFELP is the private-sector student loan program that makes higher education affordable and accessible for millions of
students and their families.
Sallie Mae's stock closed up 5.49 percent at $10.96, with the move higher accelerating shortly after he spoke.
Yep, at least U$D is off slightly. Apparently China now says they won't dump Euro debt but that cat's outta the bag and the market's heavily weighted to any bad Eurozone news.
ReplyDeleteCP- Yep...and you see oil is now higher.
ReplyDeleteEven more so now, TLT lost ground today as well but I can't identify game changing news yet.
ReplyDeleteCP- It was just a trap. Plain and simple. Gap and go tomorrow. GL :)
ReplyDeleteThe dollar chart has a parabolic shape, watch out for when that sucker reverses...
ReplyDeleteTLT has the same shape and looks like it's breaking down. But it did the same thing earlier this month.
Man, the futures are really rocketing now. Good job, 2nd_ave, in figuring out what the market is planning to do so early in the day.
ReplyDeleteI am changing my sell stop limit order on 100 shares of SKF to $21.80/21.25.
Looks like $USD made a double top at 87.4, and so the upcoming rally in equities might be "for real," as it will coincide with a falling $USD.
ReplyDeletewow - excellent call 2nd on the reversal. I'm all in...100% cash as of 2 days ago, so I'm betting on it reversing as well. I have only seen one market in my life go straight down about 15% without a bounce and this ain't 2008.
ReplyDeleteAnybody planning to fade this or is it gonna stick this time?
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
ReplyDeleteThe indices started strong but ended weak. This action suggests that they are resuming their downtrend out of the recent Gatekeeper pattern. However, as mentioned in last night's trading service, this market is getting too hard to call on a day-by-day basis.
Futures are up big pre-market. For the aggressive, use this as an opportunity to play an OGRe should it occur. See articles on gaps on my website for more on this. Come to the chartshow too.
I think you can continue to look to get short but as usual (especially in light of the strong futures), wait for entries.
Above is Landry, of course.
ReplyDeleteI continue to be wary of a bull trap. We may rally today and tomorrow (end-of-month), but I'd be hesitant to call anything beyond that.
I'm with Landry. Based on "sell-in-may" alone, any longs put on today should be for a day trade only.
ReplyDeleteI am really sick and have a really sore throat, I'm not even trading at all.
No way in hell am I going long now seasonally.
Thursday b4 a long weekend. Yeahright.
Stocks just don't have a whole lot of "up" in them:)
ReplyDeleteThoughts pulled straight out of my ass....
ReplyDeleteThe upmove in stocks really can't begin until the BP stops the oil flow. It's purely psychological of course, but meaningful.
I predict that in about 2 weeks' time the upmove will begin in earnest.
shark- I see you subscribe to TK's WAG system ;)
ReplyDeleteI subscribe to the one beer/one shot of tequila system,...and yes, it works:)
ReplyDeleteI gotta say I do not like 3 day weekends. I don't like weekends at all.
1088 look like the number we need to break/hold.
ReplyDeleteCongestion about describes it, strep throat or just more sniffles today?
ReplyDeleteBP - To tell ya the truth, I'd be surprised if their mud trick actually ends in success but I'm truly hoping for the best. If those crusty old fishermen working the booms get sick after a few hours just think of the habitat damage that must be occurring....
ReplyDeleteIt's gonna cost BP out the wazoo to fix it all if it's even possible, which I seriously doubt.
Hold 'er down Luke, she's suckin' mud!
China should offer to buy additional eurozone debt if need be, they should be buying up the entire planet.
ReplyDeleteGold was a little weak to start off but coming back now, wonder if that indicates coming equities weakness similar to yesterday's action (euro selling)?
It currently seems U$D has gained downside momentum though.
Hey..maybe I was wrong...Who knows?
ReplyDeletePerhaps the lek has been stoppend and they aren't telling us until the big boys all get positioned. Or maybe stocks just tend to rise at the most improbable times.
ReplyDeleteBidding MON @ 1.21.
ReplyDelete250 is a very important area for AAPL. Watch this level, it may tell us something.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Hope you had a great trip!!
ReplyDeleteGood to see HEK kicking some ass today...
ReplyDeleteLots of gaps up that need filling as a result of this... or are those gaps down being filled with gaps up?
ReplyDeleteAt least US dollar is still losing, that's what we need at this point.
Good luck with getting MON for $1.21! You swing a mean bargain... ;)
CP- You know me...I'm a value investor :). Ran the numbers and that's what I came up with.
ReplyDeleteIt's fing pouring down rain here. WTF??? This is Ca., not the freaking Amazon.
ReplyDeleteRemind me to add when/if this rally closes red, LOL!
ReplyDeleteWow, it never rains after 4/15 in Cali... Won't last.
ReplyDeleteWorld to China: "We're too big to fail!"
ReplyDeleteDollar dropping like a rock now.
ReplyDeleteTBT up big and dollar looks double topped and breaking down.
ReplyDeleteWhat makes no sense is that given that, gold is down.
I wonder if admitting to $13 trillion was the straw that will break the camel's back?
ReplyDeleteI have to say, as regards the North Korea news earlier this week, I feel as if I were lied to and stolen from.
ReplyDeleteHave a happy Memorial day weekend. I plan on spending WAAAAAYYYY too much time with blood relatives to really enjoy myself, but I hope someone out there actually has some fun:)
PAL making an "a-up" as described by yesterdays cnbc guest Mark Fisher.
ReplyDeleteTheorhetically you are supposed to look to get long a stock that's making an a-up.
It has to trade here or higher for a little while longer to be a valid signal.
ReplyDeleteAnd like I said I feel totally hosed by the news.
North Korea - I thought there was a memo from China requesting KJI to take it down a notch?
ReplyDeleteStratfor had several write-ups throughout the week...:
http://www.stratfor.com/memberships/163446/analysis/20100526_china_beijings_view_building_korean_tensions
I really feel stolen from regarding PAL and hey...
ReplyDeleteWhat's the hardest thing to do in trading? To re-buy something higher that you had it when you bought it right. Only to have it stolen from you by a sensationalist media conspiring with hb and b to steal stock from ANY PRUDENT PERSON. Because any prudent person would have liquidated when I did.
Now the scary thing is, I want to nuke the North Koreans myself just to spite them:)
The market did gap up today, just like 2nd_ave said it would. The high of the day for TWM was $21 -- that was my sell stop limit order filling in for 200 shares. :) Lucky me... My 100 shares of SKF were sold at $21.32.
ReplyDeleteA little while ago, I manually sold my 2 June $114 SPY puts for $5.41 (which were purchased for $3.8) and also 2 June $117 SPY puts for $7.90 (which were purchased for $3.99). My plan is to re-open these puts tomorrow, moving their expiration to September. After being so oversold and after staging a nice shakeout of weak hands yesterday, the market should rally at least a couple of days now, right?
"I really feel stolen from regarding PAL and hey..."
ReplyDeleteShark, I thought that you liked jumping in for a day trade into stocks whose chart is going up linearly, like PAL does today?
I just checked my Scottrade account and saw that HNUZF did hit my sell limit order at $5.30 for 500 shares I purchased at $4.69 a couple of days ago. The NGas "money pump" keeps working for me. The rule is simple: buy UNG (or HNUZF) when UNG drops below $6.90, sell above $7.30.
ReplyDeleteHey David,
ReplyDeleteI have swine flu or something right now, so I'm really not thinking clearly. I have amzing headaches, achiness and a sore throat unrivaled in my experience.
I don't really favor daytrading any more since discovering that swing trading is a hell of a lot easier and the risk reward sets up a little better. Now yes, PAL looks like it MAY be good going fward. I am looking for an entry but not as a daytrade. Cause you know damn well this stock will be at 3.80 in a few days:)
BTW GMO looks great also. Check out the weeklies on these 2.
?Who am I kidding? I almost bought PAL at 3.33 today (I am a weirdo about buying numbers that I "like", it's part of my OCD:) and didn't, so there ya go. We're getting a BP relief rally. What will happen monday if on Sunday the news is that the top kill failed?
ReplyDeleteThere's a fair amount of disappointment in BP now.
ReplyDeleteSo Obama's finally getting around to blasting "scandalously close relationships" between regulators and corporations?
ReplyDeleteMy heart just skipped a beat, gee what a novel concept! I think we all should take a moment to reflect on the myriad of supposed services we're taxed for that we haven't been getting....
That next deep-sea well is gonna cost BP triple the customary number of complementary lap dances and kickbacks!
Guy on CNBC was talking about AEO. Interesting to me. I'll stick with my 3 day rule, so that would be tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteMarket seems to be getting a little push in the back here.
ReplyDeleteMan, the energy stocks sure took off once Obama was done.
ReplyDeleteSorry if I mess this day up....but VIX back below 30 again.
ReplyDeleteGet well soon, shark!
ReplyDeleteshark - there's this combination I heard once of 1 Bourbon, 1 Scotch & 1 Beer ...:-) Maybe it's in a song... Yea that's it... There was this song....
ReplyDeleteLooks like I need to educate myself on the a-up...!!!
ReplyDeleteThanks man.
ReplyDeleteI now realize that I should have jumped back into PAL.
Maybe next week.
"Bourbon/scotch/beer" You can double up on any one of those ingredients in a pinch or should you run into a mooch.
ReplyDeleteWhat, nobody gonna short the close?
ReplyDeleteCP, few people will have the strength to jump in today after a gap up and after what happened yesterday. So I think another strong up day is likely tomorrow. At the end of the day tomorrow, however, I may repurchase the SPY put options I sold today.
ReplyDeleteMan, what a close! I am glad that I sold my SPY puts as soon as I woke up. Of course, if I would have woken up earlier, I would have gotten even better prices for them. But, as Bill once said, "that's the cost of doing business" and living a good life at the same time. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - My get up and go got up and went about a week ago...
ReplyDeleteOkay, I nominate both Mark and TOF for trader of the week award, which of course means drinks are on them...
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- what's your take on this EOD spike up? Was this the crowd joining in, that didn't want to be left behind? If so, then who will be doing the buying tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteMy total portfolio was net long as of last night (and hence it is up today), and it became MUCH "longer" today after I closed some ultrashorts and June SPY puts. So I really don't want to join the camp of "trapped bulls" and see a gap down tomorrow...
ReplyDelete"I remember as if it were a meal ago"
ReplyDeleteSaid Tommy the Cat as he reeled back to clear whatever foreign matter may have nestled it's way into his mighty throat.
Many a fat alley rat had met it's demise while staring point blank down the cavernous barrel of this awesome prowling machine.
Truly a wonder of nature this urban predator.
Tommy the cat had many a story to tell,
But it was a rare occasion such as this that he did.
"She came slidin' down the alleyway like butter drippin' off a hot biscuit.
The aroma, the mean scent, was enough to arouse suspicion in even the oldest of Tigers that hung around the hot spot in those days.
The sight was beyond belief.
Many a head snapped for double - even triple - takes as this vivacious feline made her her way into the delta of the alleyway where the most virile of the young tabbys were known to hang out.
They hung in droves. Such a multitude of masculinity could only be found in one place...
And that was O'malley's Alley.
The air was thick with cat calls (no pun intended),
But not even a muscle in her neck did twitch as she sauntered up into the heart of the alley.
She knew what she wanted.
She was lookin' for that stud bull, the he cat.
And that was me.
Tommy the Cat is my name and I say unto thee...
"Say baby do you wanna lay down by me"
CP- I'm going for trader of the year when my MON order fills :)
ReplyDeleteWell, it took some pain, patience, and averaging down, but I'm now at a new yearly high. Of course, tomorrow is another day :)
Congrats, Mark, for being at a new high today while S&P is still down for the year!
ReplyDeleteA yearly high sounds pretty darn good to me, look how much blue sky potential may be in store!
ReplyDeleteOkay, if you're holding out for trader of the year that doesn't excuse you from duties assigned and therefore we're all headed to Mark's place for a weekend-long party!
I call dibs on the lounge chair by the pool!
Thanks David! Got lucky when I cashed out just into this last down draft. I'm not expecting any great move up here, but will let the market make that call for me. What I'm really pleased about is I have more funds now than when the S&P was @ 1200.
ReplyDeleteMan, I'd love to have you guys all over. Maybe someday the stars will align!!
ReplyDeleteOkay, for those interested, here's an Stratfor article on Korea for those who didn't get the subtleties alluded to in the earlier distribution of the memo. My impression was the ball was in China's court all week and they finally managed to lob it back over the net. At least temporarily, that is, which necessitated the visits to China by foreign heads of state and such:
ReplyDeletehttp://community.icontact.com/p/koreaeconreader/newsletters/business/posts/stratfor-china-beijings-view-of-the-building-korean-tensions
Mark - We're headed over there right now, I hope you've got the grill ready to go, spiced ground hogs stuffed in tubes, and the beer on ice!
ReplyDeleteI'm loading the blender and shot glasses in my car now, making a quick stop for some tequilla and mixer on the way....
Anybody know if Vad's short worked out?
ReplyDeletenew post, baby!
ReplyDelete