Thursday, May 27, 2010
5/28/10 Some Kind Of Wonderful
Cleared ST positions in FIDSX/FSENX at the close, for a combined gain of 4.41% (over 2 days). Of course, Fidelity will be taxing me 0.75% for closing both positions within 30 days, leaving me with 3.66%. Still leaves the total port up 1.83% in two days (positions were taken in the 'buy-and-hold' half of the port).
Some kind of wonderful? Yeah, I kind of feel like the guy banging away on the sticks.
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Re: Playing a bounce/ Some Kind Of Wonderful newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4435 comments) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 17:29 #63649
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIpNL1Ckuno&feature...
Pz-
Cleared ST positions in FIDSX/FSENX at the close, for a combined gain of 4.41% (over 2 days). Of course, Fidelity will be taxing me 0.75% for closing both positions within 30 days, leaving me with 3.66%. That still leaves the total port up 1.83% in two days (positions were taken in the 'buy-and-hold' half of the port).
Some kind of wonderful? Yeah, I kind of feel like the guy banging away on the sticks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100527/us_nm/us_hurricane_forecast
ReplyDelete"Storms could match the record numbers of 2005, when Katrina hit, according to experts."
Re: Playing a bounce/ Some Kind Of Wonderful newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4436 comments) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 17:52 #63652 (in reply to #63651)
ReplyDeletefwiw, I would have closed out my positions yesterday about the same time you did, except that mutual funds only trade EOD.
Going into last night's close, I had the option of closing out for a minor loss (taking into account the 0.75% ST trading fee), or going with my instincts, which 'interpreted' the last-minute sell-off as a shakedown prior to take-off. Sometimes it comes down to the sixth sense.
(The ST trading fee and the fact that funds only trade EOD are both clear signs IMO of a 'house advantage.')
"Storms could match the record numbers of 2005, when Katrina hit, according to experts."
ReplyDeleteGo, UNG, go! :)
Re UNG, I see that this morning's 730 am inventory report provided the usual entertainment...
ReplyDelete2nd_ave: why did you go to cash today? Don't you think the chances are high for another up day tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteI have just figured a partial answer to my question about "who will be doing the buying tomorrow": it will be David Rosenberg and his faithful readers, who are waiting for two strong up days in a row before buying "the bottom."
"Re UNG, I see that this morning's 730 am inventory report provided the usual entertainment..."
ReplyDeleteHowever, that sell-off was bought, which suggests that the long-term buyers (who are looking ahead to the hurricane season) are stronger here than the short-term traders playing on the inventory numbers.
David- I just didn't have the guts to hold another night ;)
ReplyDeleteUNG- Tired to add right after the report, but was too tight with my bid.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I still think there will be plenty of buyers looking at how hard some positions were hit. That's the main reason I've moved almost totally into specific stocks.
I can understand that. But why didn't you buy today a small speculative position in, say, SSO?
ReplyDeleteI can do that tomorrow morning ;)
ReplyDeleteRe: First they said sell Euro bonds, few hours later they ...
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Vadym Graifer (1254 comments) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 18:00 #63654 (in reply to #63650)
How are we supposed to trade based on supposedly reliable news feed?
Last thing we are supposed to do is to buy or sell based on the headline crossing the wire... Everyone sees that headline - can you imagine everyone winning in the market? Same goes for gurus advice in various newsletters and articles.
Don't tell me, follow the TA only, it doesn't work most of the time.
TA works 100% of the rime. Real question is, what do we do with TA? Let me offer you this read: http://blog.realitytrader.com/2007/04/what-do-your...
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
Re: First they said sell Euro bonds, few hours later they ... newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4437 comments) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 18:11 #63655 (in reply to #63654)
I think what Vad's getting at is that gaming traders' reactions to any news is far more reliable than gaming the actual news.
Human reactions/responses follow fairly predictable patterns. If you see a certain pattern developing in real time, you can probably predict (with better than even odds) how the price action will unfold.
tof- How did you play the close?
ReplyDeleteRe: Playing a bounce/ Some Kind Of Wonderful newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4438 comments) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 18:15 #63656 (in reply to #63652)
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of the predictability of human nature- if the market lives up to its 'max frustration' personality, the indexes will rally another 4% tomorrow, leaving my 2-day gains in the dust.
Personally, I just didn't have the guts to hold another day.
We got the point, 2nd_ave. :)
ReplyDeleteI was just correcting my grammar/replacing certain words with more appropriate ones ;)
ReplyDeleteMy last post was supposed to be a joke after seeing the re-posts from BC by 2nd_ave repeated many times. However, now I see that they are not repeating themselves but are just shifting down the list of posts. They used to be among the first 4 posts on this page, and now they are way at the bottom -- how strange...
ReplyDeleteThat's b/c each time I revise, I have to completely delete the previous post, which then results in a brand new post.
ReplyDeleteOK, mystery solved. :)
ReplyDeleteEven though I think UNG is good to go this time (i.e., I think/hope it won't reverse at $7.50-$7.60 but will run all the way to $8.50), I would still like to "take off the table" the extra shares of HNUZF I purchased during yet another dip in UNG below $7, and so I am lowering my sell limit order to $5.90 for the 500 shares I bought at $5.30. A $300 is good enough for me, as it will also rebuild my dwindling spare cash resources.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I picked up this stuff at the liquor store called "Junk Shot", who wants one???
ReplyDeleteWhat's that- the first alcoholic blend named in honor of BP?
ReplyDeleteI would guess it's a mix of Kahlua and marshmallow pieces?
ReplyDeleteWe should can it ourselves and sell it online for 9.99 each. People would buy it just for the souvenir value.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Interesting post by TK on UNG:
ReplyDeleteMy Natural Gas Mistake
I've had good luck with the ETF on natural gas, UNG, lately. I came into the day long UNG, and I sold it at a profit shortly after the open.
However, I learned a painful mistake today that I will avoid repeating. After I sold, UNG continued strong, so I re-entered the position. I normally pay close attention to the events of the day, but in all the excitement of this morning's rally, I didn't notice that at 7:30 my time, a natural gas report was coming out.
It did, and the market ever-so-briefly ripped down, took out my stop, and continued its upward climbing. My profits from the earlier position were gone, and then some. I wound up buying UNG (yet again) later in the day, and I closed the day with a profitable UNG position.
I am a big believer in stops, but it's apparent to me that it's unwise to have relatively tight stops in place during these reports. The dip down lasted only moments, but that was all it took to rip me off. Learn from my error.
IN case you guys were still watching FTFL, which I have a now very large position in at $6.30, there was a huge insider purchase of the stock on 5/25 of about 260,000 shares. This company has about half it's market cap in cash, is trading at about a 10 p/e and has a dividend yield of about 13% if it continues to pay out $0.20/share each quarter. Not saying it will, but that would be pretty attractive.
ReplyDeleteHey TOF- Yeah, I picked up 1,000 shares the day you mentioned it @ 6.30. Half of the shares traded that day were bought by the COO. These thinly traded babies can be a real bitch, believe me, I know :)
ReplyDeleteThis is the SEC Form 4 filing TOF is talking about.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NzU5MmUzND
FTFL- So an insider recently purchased the equivalent of almost 1% of the float. That in itself is pretty impressive.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the usual bid/ask spread on the stock- can't possibly be 10%, can it?
ReplyDelete2nd- The sucker has NO volume. If you back out 5 trading days over the last 180, Avg. volume is 300/day. Looking back, I figured worst case I could get out for 6. I'm guessing those 5 big volume days were pre-arraigned trades through the MM.
ReplyDeleteHey, no volume sounds like we might have our very own value play that we could pump and dump if we wanted.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of pump and dump, how's that Junk Shot stuff? Kinda abrasive goin' down but yields a mellow easy going sponge-bob buzz for hours!
Junk Shots:
ReplyDeleteDidn't have any, and I still just yacked all over my room:)
Must've had too much 40 weight in yours!
ReplyDeleteYou know, PAL sure did pop up nicely for a worthless piece of junk stock...
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The indices put in a massive rally from oversold. However, in spite of all the media celebration, so far it only looks like a bounce from oversold.
Stocks finished extremely strong but, there's no meaningful follow through on the open. This action, at least for the moment, suggests that the buying may be done.
I wish I could fast forward to the afternoon. I'm curious to see if traders will be brave enough to hold ahead of a long holiday weekend.
Continue to look to get short but as usual, wait for entries.
Might want to read Bill's comments today. I don't disagree with his take. Stay cautious.
ReplyDeleteAdding to PXP @ 21.25. Same reasons as before. Over reaction to it's holdings in the gulf.
ReplyDeleteToday's close might be interesting, I'm expecting some weakness going into this 3 day weekend which I'm currently considering adding into just for a quick flip.
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps adding to morning weakness is what I should be considering, I'm not sure which but I'm willing to wait it out for better prices.
Off the bat, I see gold is weak so that probably indicates euro slide isn't anticipated. T's are gaining strength though, indication the opposite.
ReplyDeleteGMO regaining earlier losses, I may have missed a nice day trade.
Mark taking advantage of the early morning panic attack. Good move, I should grow some balls.
ReplyDeleteGMO flying of course. Damn, wish I had some balls.
I think my clue for buying GMO weakness this morning might've been the opening price punching through the 20DMA.
ReplyDeleteI could be flipping it right now...
Sigh...
Thanks CP- That's why I like to play stocks. That was either weak hands wetting their pants, or the MM jambing it down to fill buy orders for their clients.
ReplyDeleteThe only stock I regret selling the last time around is GMO. You've done great with that one man.
AEO isn't giving us day 3.
ReplyDeleteMark - I could've done better obviously, was very surprised anyone would so easily let go of what's more than likely going to be a major success story.
ReplyDeleteYea, I was greedy wanting the gap to fill and should've known better.
Any opinions on BQI???
ReplyDeleteMark - do you think MM's can create a profitable cascade effect? Maybe so, if there's some level of doubt about market direction and their skills are high.
ReplyDeleteI don't like the idea of trading against computers, I'd probably trade more if they weren't there trading against me.
Heck, they probably know more about my weaknesses than I do. Well obviously they do b/c I have no weaknesses IMO!
If I were to speculate on oil sands and maybe add into the mix a little bit of guessing, I'd have to say it might be good for a pop but longer term I think folks may come to realize there's an untapped mountain of oil in the gulf the general public doesn't know anything about.
ReplyDeleteLike I said, I'm guessing.... ;)
CP- Sure they do. Let's say there big clients come in and say I want 1M shares of ABC. They pick the right time when enough stops are in place and sell the shit out of it. Then they come in and buy it back up.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I could be wrong about PXP in the long run, but I highly doubt it. Besides, I'm green in it now, and at these levels, I like my odds.
ReplyDeleteOkay, now I'm thinking there isn't likely to be any lasting strength going into the long weekend b/c of what happened in Spain last weekend and nobody wants to add exposure risk at this point.
ReplyDeleteSo the question is, will this weekend place a positive or negative spin on the market?
I think it's more likely to be positive and today's weakness presents a buying opportunity (yes, maybe some wishful thing in there).
I need more volatility than we've had so far to be able to trade.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Yes, this morning's low was a 50DMA retest, so I've placed a bid there just in case of another retest (which I doubt will happen but maybe I get lucky) and subsequent flip.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteSo, now SPY has fallen back under the 200DMA (1106.4), it will be interesting to see if it can retake that hurdle or wait until next week (I'd say next week based on Europe's lackluster close).
ReplyDeleteIf so, GMO may close near the 50DMA and fill my bid, in which case I'll be sweating bullets and checking the news all weekend. ;)
Or maybe the day trade would be to short a high point on the S&P(around the 200DMA 1106.4), wait for the EOD selling and cut it loose for the weekend?
ReplyDeleteGold VS S&P:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/gold-relative-to-sp500-1928-2010/
Have a great weekend guys!
ReplyDeleteMy take on BQI:
ReplyDeleteA dog with fleas.
Here's why...Canadian oil sands is a particularly expensive and pollution-creating process...The whole play is levered to a world that is literally running out of oil, which we are not. Witness the bp deepwater horizon webcam:)
Since we are in more of a de-leveraging slower-growth phase of things, and since I do, having read the book by Matthew whatever his name is, think that the "peak oil" theory is self serving industry crap dsigned to justify unnaturally high prices, I would rather buy a company that shampoos poodles and straightens their hair than to buy into a canadian oil sands gambit with a very low probablility of success.
Just about any crappy metals company is a better bet than BQI.
I am also really really down on solar in this environment, specifically the problems in europe, by far the numero uno market for solar stuff.
I actually think you'd be much better off buying BP than either of the aforementioned. At least it's in play, at least you will see action on your position. Better that than a slow death in an industry ahead of it's time.
As I theorized theother day, no one wants to carry equities over this weekend when the risks are particularly high.
ReplyDeleteWe heard again from one of the four-foot-eleven-inch guys who wear Soviet era shoes, talking war in the Koreas.
The odds of BP not plugging the leak by monday morning using the "top kill" seems pretty high, an emotional yet significant component of this downtrend.
In short, by monday, anything could happen:)
PAL - Seems like a nice entry would be around $3.25
ReplyDeleteGold - I'd consider it if it hadn't fallen to $760 during the financial crisis and wasn't bumping up against all time highs today. That thing is famous for taking some nasty swan dives for no apparent reason an I'm not getting caught in that without having a better understanding of what makes it move.
And to say that gold's better than $USD cash in a market crash was proven wrong last go-round. Sure, it might be better than the euro but then so would a lot of things besides gold.
I smell a pump and dump rat.
Enjoy your weekend Sharkie, I'll try and get these prices down for ya this afternoon!
ReplyDeleteBTW - There will be no war in the Korea's, if you don't believe it read the article from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThat of course doesn't preclude any opportunities that might arise from a media induced rush for the exits.
I agree on BP, that well is broken and the only way it's getting fixed is by drilling an intersecting well.
How sloppy and inconsiderate of BP not to have a robust series of backup plans along with the ability to implement. The backlash has yet to begin, makes me want to snap up shallow water and land based suppliers like PXP.
Oh but for the drama!
Fitch downgraded its rating of Spain!
ReplyDeleteSo if euro risk is once again increasing, why isn't gold moving up?
ReplyDeleteThis is why I cannot put my faith in gold anymore.
cp, your wish on gold has been granted
ReplyDeletelol, its almost like someone said, "can't you wait and let the markets recover a bit before you go downgrading spain"
Solar. Maybe. But what I'm seeing is energy giants investing in total losers to use their carbon credits as offsets.
ReplyDeleteAsk what the world's fastest growing business is. Go ahead, ask! Answer? Carbon credits.
$116B in 2008. It doubles every couple years.
Expected to be $2T by 2020.
So you have Duke energy buying wind and solar facilities and installing solar panels on anything that doesn't move or crawl away in SC and NC and now wind from Texas to Ohio.
That's why they want to build wood burning biomass here. The tree industries were able to lobby to have burning wood count as carbon neutral. So now we have miners (a hole in the ground with a liar on top) and we have timber companies (a tree in the woods with a liar on top). Mark, BUY LUMBER and timber companies.
If this incinerator goes through (and I'll tell you when) then you will want to own Duke (DUK) and Areva in addition to WY.
We are supposed to play off the traders' reaction to the news, right? Well, the reaction to today's downgrade of Spain is certainly is not too bad. It looks more like a yet another shakeout of weak hands.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave: thanks for mentioning TK and UNG. I rarely use stops, and when I do, I almost always get faked out. A couple of months ago, I made a decision with NGas (after hearing Mark's thoughts about it) that buying it under $4 represents VALUE, and so I was mindlessly buying UNG and HNUZF when NGas would drop under $4, and selling it with a good profit (while still keeping a core position for the times when NGas will rise above $5).
ReplyDeleteCheapy - U$D is up considerably more today than gold.
ReplyDeleteBiomass incinerator - sounds pretty crazy to me, unless maybe it's being used to dispose of waste products that would otherwise go into a landfill.
Burning lumber-quality wood to make electricity is just so damn Haitian.
GMO - Added a little chunk @ $3.64, trying to flip it into close.
ReplyDeleteI started writing my post about today's reaction to the news when S&P was still down more than 1%, and by the time I finished the previous two posts it staged a major rally! That's definitely not a bearish reaction to the news. I am glad I resisted the temptation (out of fear) to buy back the ultrashorts I sold yesterday. I am not pretty sure that S&P will rise above 1100 next week, and then I'll add ultrashorts and/or S&P puts if/when S&P crosses 1090 on the way down (or when it becomes overbought again and starts rolling over).
ReplyDelete"the reaction to today's downgrade of Spain is certainly is not too bad."
ReplyDeleteGood point, as if their only purpose in life is to shoot the wounded, confirming what we already know.
GS - Almost turned green....
ReplyDeleteCP- Nice entry in GMO. Looking at my support/resistance lines your right in the middle. Next resistance is all the way to 3.89. GL.
ReplyDeleteIf PXP can break 22.43, it should go to 23 today.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Flipped it @ $3.74, didn't want to wait until the last minute.
ReplyDeleteHAL- Take a look at that chart today. Talk about being pinned under the 1,000lb gorilla.
ReplyDeleteCP- Nice work. That would have been my exit also.
ReplyDeleteOII might come into play soon.
ReplyDeleteFTFL- Interesting volume. Small players. I looked back again last night and those big volume trades were all huge blocks. I'm guessing the recent insider buy has caught the attention of pin heads like me :).
ReplyDeleteOnly a few brave souls taking on risk there at the end.
ReplyDeleteI wonder why the masses freaked out at the close...
ReplyDeleteGMO - Yea, I figured the 50DMA wouldn't fail today but when we couldn't stay over the 20DMA this morning that was my sign the close wouldn't be positive (of course, who really expected a positive close today, LOL?).
ReplyDeleteKind of a no-brainer trade just down my alley, one with limits large enough to drive a semi truck through.
Nobody wanted to fall victim of a three day weekend considering the tumultuous times we're in regarding Europe and maybe even Korea, along with the side show circus brought to our livingrooms courtesy BP which look likely to disappoint further.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone see Obama standing ankle deep in oil today or did he pull a Bush/Katrina flyover?
Man, those beaches are liable to stink like rotten dinosaur farts for over a decade.
re: S&P > I'm still looking at a series of higher lows and higher highs if you look at it from the "big picture". So until that trend changes the bulls still have the ball in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI gotta get out there and doze some dirt now, they're coming Tuesday to throw up the hooptie shed.
ReplyDeleteThey tried to make me rent them a LULL, I told them to cancel the order. They called back and said they could do it anyway.
TOF - I'm waiting for the 200DMA 3% test to fail before running for cover.
ReplyDeleteGary Coleman passed today, of a brain hemorrhage.
ReplyDeleteChicken - That would be a good time to bail / cut losses. It hasn't happened yet.
ReplyDeleteI can't figure out whether I am net long or net short: my portfolio was up about 1K yesterday and it is up about $500 today. :) Since today's gain is smaller, I suppose there is a long bias lurking somewhere in there. But then, it's best not to touch a portfolio that goes up whenever the market goes up OR goes down. I'll wait for a down day in my portfolio and will THEN think how to adjust it.
ReplyDeleteCouple things....
ReplyDeleteWhen I was living in NYC one of my best friends and co-workers was Haywood Nelson, formerly Dwayne on "What's Happening". Over the couple of years that we worked together, often late at night, over many drinks and joints, we explored many of the interesting psychological ins and outs of life as a former child star. You should have seen the girls in Times Square, all those decades later, giggling in recognition of someone they used to see on TV. TV is like magic to human beings. They still can't believe that you can be inside the box and outside it at the same time.
I listened to the BP news conference. IT sounds like the odds of the top kill working, and by the end of the weekend is extremely low. This will weigh on markets as long as it continues to leak. It will also weigh on the Obama administration, which rubber stamped this drilling operation bypassing safety checks and standards. Drill baby drill. Also interesting is Obama's attmept to sideline Arlen Specter's opposition in the recent primary.
I expect, based on the totality of events, and in the absence of success in the Gulf, for this selloff to continue for the forseeable future. At least I 'aint buying any stock:)
Have a great holiday weekend everybody!
Interesting that the kid from Different Strokes died from a stroke:)
Well, my winning streak finally came to an end today. The culprit? Exposure to the Gulf (PXP), a crappy little backhaul provider (FTWR), a Co. that really has no earnings (HEK), Debit loaded wildcatter (SD)....Nope, Nope, Nope, Nope, and NOPE!...It was f$#@ing sugar (SGG)!!! WTF...gaps down 6% and never did recover.
ReplyDeleteSeriously though, the overall loss was small (700 bucks) and easily brushed aside after strong gains Tue/Wed/Thur (3K, 1.8K, 6.2K).
So, unless things fall apart, AGAIN, steady as she goes for now :)
SGG huh? I'll take a look at that one.
ReplyDeleteLast call for alcohol here, folks! I'm full-up till this bag starts moving one way or the other. Who knows, maybe I still have a chance to load up at ridiculous discounts or at least on a nice blue light special!
SGG - WTF, only traded 80K shares today, could have been a small portion of holdings by one medium-sized trader going on vacation! Sure is beat up though, been falling all damn year.
ReplyDelete