Although The Glenlivet Nàdurra goes down incredibly smooth and buttery, it packs a serious kick. After a single glass, I was buzzing. After two, I was slurring my speech a little, and after three glasses, I was noticeably drunk and ready to remove my pants. I consider myself a pretty serious Scotch drinker, but I have never consumed one that has the kind of powerful effect that Nàdurra boasts over its lucky drinker. The drunk it provides is a very relaxed peaceful one. It almost makes you feel classier as you drink even if you can’t find your pants. The Nàdurra is a perfect selection for a drink after a long day of work to calm the nerves.
Tele that was clean. I didn't even know Winwood played guitar. That baby allman Trucks can play too. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLQTbmUYI4A http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FlOJXL4j6k&feature=related
Yes, Derek Trucks is in the new line up of the Allman brothers as well as his own band. He is nephew of Original Allman drummer Butch Trucks. I have seen them a few times and they still play 3 hour psychedelic jam concerts. With old and new material. It is not just an oldy nostalgia type thing. The trucks kid does a admirable in the Duanne Allman parts. Waryn Haynes(big guy) the other guitarist is one of the best in the world. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCiLCo-LoUg
Hey shark, Going to kill it today. What are your gold thoughts with the Euro taking a powder. Will it go up with the dollar going up. That would be the sweet spot. Where all news is good for gold. Bob
I slept like a baby, and woke with a pleasant aura. The Nadurra lives up to its reputation. Quick buzz followed by a prolonged mellow haze, no after-effects.
I'm starting to buy some July and Sept in the money puts on SPY. Thought about it a lot over the weekend and I think it's finally a good time to start getting bearish.
There are plenty of daytrading cowboys offering to "scalp along with me" for just a hair under 300 a month with occasional perks such as Sevruga and Stoli,
....But how many of these gunslingers told you last May "ok, now is the time, go all in and hold for a freaking year, and then you won't need to send me 300 a month no more..."
Where were these guys then?
Now it's like, Oh cool, I made a quarter on a 70 dollar stock, aren't I the hotshot?
What happens next is, The dollar strengthens versus the Euro, pressuring U.S. stocks.
Then, the seasonal tendency kicks in and we have a selloff ino the summer, profit taking by those who knew what the HECK they were doing for a year, certainly not me.
2nd - i'm not trying to muddy the waters (i.e., sway anyway)...my opinion is worth the same as everyone else...but when i see a stream of good news and the market can't go any higher, its time to go to cash or cash/shorts.
I told myself that if the market opened up higher today it would be a great starting point to get short. I'm taking this as an opportunity on the short side...
2nd - You're right on WATG right now...I could come to regret that but my thinking is the China economy, as evidenced by the weakness in the Shanghai and Hang Seng, will slow enough to cause investors to apply a lower multiple on stocks/companies that benefitted the most from their stimulus package. That means WATG could have a multiple compression despite having solid fundamentals. So I suspect we could have a better entry point.
Looks like consumer cyclicals and transportation are strong today which is not indicative of a sell off. If we saw a strong market buoyed by defensive names it would bode better for bears.
Part of my thinking right here, although it's basically just a fleeting thought, would be- What if the sentiment signal that Hulbert brought up was worked off by last Friday's sell-off? ie, what if newsletter editors all suddenly took a bearish turn Friday night, but there hasn't been time to put that in print?
Boy's you have to be patient bears. I am guessing the dollar is real strong. The catalyst this whole run up has been the weak dollar and Emer market growth. Now nearly every Emerging market is heading south, but the US will keep going up? Some idiot on cnbc said it looks like THe us market has DECOUPLED from the rest of the world. What? I thought the USs only hope was strong economies else where.
RoBear - I gotta disagree man. The USD got stronger late last year and the market still went up. I don't agree with people that the market can only go up when the dollar goes down. This is a recent phenomenom but historically the markets have gone up with a rising dollar. And emerging markets got weaker/flat starting late last year and the US market still went up.
I'm leaning toward the bearish side of things now but you gotta give it to the US market for actually decoupling for the past 6 months. Same can be said for the Nikkei.
Right now it's just Carlos Santana ripping on a hot summer night. Throw in a shitload of shorts, and he's just invited Clapton on stage to rip his own Latin solo.
Re: Jingo Submitted by Bull Hunter (982 comments) on Mon, 05/03/2010 - 11:55 #62077 (in reply to #62074) Hi 2nd,
I'm not short (as of yet) but am bewildered by this market. Europe on the ropes, deficits soaring, high unemployment, rising oil and food prices......this market seems to defy all logic.
Re: Jingo newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4399 comments) on Mon, 05/03/2010 - 11:59 #62079 (in reply to #62077) BH- As far as not (yet) having boarded the short train, I couldn't be happier to hear it, as I couldn't be hearing it from a nicer guy ;)
Last week’s top five stocks that were bought by their CEOs were GENERAL MOLY, INC, Apollo Investment Corp, Education Realty Trust Inc, Conexant Systems Inc, and Old Mutual/Claymore LongShort Fund. According to GuruFocus Insider Data, these are the largest CEO buys during the past week.
GENERAL MOLY, INC (GMO): CEO Bruce D Hansen Bought 100,000 Shares
CEO of GENERAL MOLY, INC (GMO) Bruce D Hansen bought 100,000 shares on 04/28/2010 at an average price of $3.74. General Moly is a U.S.-based molybdenum mineral exploration and development company listed on the American Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol GMO. General Moly, Inc has a market cap of $271.3 million; its shares were traded at around $3.74 .
General Molly recently reported its fourth quarter and full year 2009 results. Net loss for the three months ended December 31, 2009 was approximately $2.2 million ($0.03 per share) compared to a loss of $2.6 million ($0.04 per share) for the year ago period. Net loss for the full year ending December 31, 2009 was approximately $10.2 million ($0.14 per share) compared to a loss of $14.4 million ($0.21 per share) for the year ago period. Sell:: Director Richard F Nanna sold 25,000 shares of GMO stock on 04/26/2010 at the average price of 3.68, the price of the stock has increased by 1.63% since.
I remember Bill once said that a sharply increased volatility around some price level after a VERY long move in some direction usually means a change in the trend is happening. People are very nervous, and they are ready to bail out of the trend en masse at the first sign of trouble. Looks like we are experiencing something like that now, after WEEKS of daily gains of less than 1% (and usually less than 0.5%), we are starting to have these large 1.5% up/down swings.
I just moved the rest of my TWM (400 shares) into a slightly larger TZA position (1500 shares) at $5.61. If the market continues higher, I'll move 1/2 of my SKF into FAZ and then, after a further rise, will move the second 1/2 of my SKF into FAZ.
David - I decided after much deliberating this weekend to join your esteemed camp in the bearish/cash camp.
I was thinking a lot about this very thing you mentioned...that the volatility has gone up quite a bit right around this point where we had a free fall from back in fall 2008. I don't think is a coincidence.
Add to this that people will soon be contemplating a rise in tax rates across the board for 2011 for businesses, a rise in oil prices that will crimp business profits, additional emphasis on sovereign debt issues and I thought it was a prudent time to lock in profits and begin speculating on the downside risks.
It is strange to see FCX down so much today with the market up so much. FCX is pretty oversold now, and I wouldn't want to see my short position in it shoot up 8% tomorrow. So I just covered at $73.15 the 200 shares I shorted on Friday at $75.95, for a gain of $550. The only way that FCX would continue going down noticeably is if the whole market would turn South as well, but I already have that case covered with my lateral move from TWM into TZA today.
"David - do you think FCX is down due to the new tax policies out of ANZ?"
Possibly so. But at this point it is pretty oversold, and anything can spark a rebound. I'll try to re-enter my FCX short after a rebound and then a move down, with a stop at the top of the rebound. At this point, however, I don't even know where to put a stop if I were to short FCX.
teamonfuego, you mentioned over the weekend that a weak GDP print fits very well with Jeremy Grantham's view of low Fed funds rate and the market trending higher. That's true in general, but remember that the *reason* for the market to move higher is *speculation* by traders who are borrowing at 0%. The speculators are a nervous crowd, and they all want to be smart and buy at the bottom of a correction like we had in January. So even if the market is destined to move higher for another year, a correction right now fits very well with the speculative nature of this whole rally.
David - Right...I'm betting on a short term correction, but there is always the possibility that this past 2 weeks of drops has strengthened the bulls even more, noting that the market can't be pushed down more than 2 or 3%. While people were pointing to an over bought market as evidence for a sell-off, the fact is the market is no longer overbought. It has traded sideways for 2 and a half weeks now.
At least UNG is up today. :) But who cares now, after it has disappointed the investors so many times now. That's the mood we need for a real rally. It would have been too easy to rally straight up after such a long decline -- everyone would have been on board of that rally in that case, which isn't possible.
Incidentally, the UNG chart shows the same trend-changing behavior we discussed earlier today with respect to S&P: a loooong decline followed by a sideways action with a sharply increased volatility.
"While people were pointing to an over bought market as evidence for a sell-off, the fact is the market is no longer overbought. It has traded sideways for 2 and a half weeks now."
That's right. The maximum frustration right now would be another push higher by the market, say to 1240 on the S&P (so as to clear Bill's target of 1229 and suck him in on the long side along with all other technicians), followed by a move down to 1000, followed by a move to 1300 -- you get the idea. :)
Another interesting point about UNG: it made an intraday double bottom today at $6.83, which was also its intraday low on March 31, before the first sharp rebound has begun. That was also the 61.8% retracement level on the front-month futures of the rally between September 2009 (when the futures bottomed out at $2.75, I think) and January 2010 (when they were around $6). So today's intraday double bottom might be significant.
Now we are having the pattern of increased volatility during a sideways motion intraday on the Dow. If that pattern results to the downside in the Dow (an intraday trend change), then I'll bet that all other patterns we discussed today will result in a trend change as well. :)
teamonfuego -- I have just looked at the 1-year chart of S&P, and the slope of the steady ascent between January and April was higher than the slope of the ascent between July and December 2009, and so a straight-line move now to 1300 would give us yet another increase in the slope, which would make this whole thing look truly parabolic. Parabolic moves always end with spectacular declines. So long-term market bulls should hope for a 10% correction now, rather than a move to 1300 and a 30% correction then.
OK, we are heading down now. I placed a sell limit order at $5.73 for the 1000 shares of TZA purchased today at $5.58. We will probably have a sharp drop now over the next 10-15 minutes followed by a traditional rebound into the close.
Man, the market can't just end the day on the same plateau it is now! It has to move somewhere, right? Or can the market *really* do anything it wants?
good luck guys on the TZA. I'm short SPY and have a few SPY June/July in the money puts. I don't like the double/triple ETFs, especially if I'm looking to short for at least a few weeks.
For what it's worth, today was an inside day. I'm not sure how profitable these days are in terms of trading opportunities, but I believe the theory is inside days are signs of a change in trend.
my initial TZA entries were lousy, but on the exit I did as well as I could have under the circumstances. Had I not started buying till 5.56 it would have been a significantly better day.
"I got stopped out of virtually no positions today and have been amp'ing up my SPY short and created new longs in SKF and TWM. I'm getting shorter 'n' shorter. Can't believe anyone would actually buy into this rally today. C'mon guys. Grow a pair."
For all you trend following traders: check out the 1-year chart of ECU.TO. It traced out a higher low (at 0.6 vs. 0.5) over the last few months and looks to me as being on the path of rising above $1 soon. I have a large stake in it already, and I think it will turn out to be a winning lottery ticket for me.
Check out the recent headlines from Yahoo finance:
- ECU Silver Added to Global X Silver Miners ETF and Is Also Featured in Resource World Magazine(Mon 3:00AM EDT) - CEO Clips is Featuring ECU Silver on BNN(Tue, Apr 27) - ECU Silver Announces New Appointments, CCNMatthews(Mon, Apr 26) - ECU Silver Reports Best Operating Month in March 2010(Wed, Apr 14)
When a forgotten mining stock (with ever improving fundamentals such as steadily increasing production of gold and silver) starts rising to prominence, its stock price can do wonders.
GMO - $4.30 is the upper trend line, can she break out? More insider buying, in addition to last report.
UNH - A little disappointing, hanging out at the lower trend line here.
Who fired the bug gun @13:30???
BP - Really should've gone for the premium shutoff valve(s), an additional $500k sure looks like a bargain now! How do they plan on capping their "spectacular" well that far down under the sea, with a nuclear device??? Sure, we'll see about that...
I am placing buy limit orders on ESLR for 1000 shares each at $1.10 and $1.01. The company has just had their first profitable quarter and totally doesn't look to be on the path to bankruptcy (despite being almost priced for one). There is also a feeling that the whole solar sector is close to a turning point, with the flagship FSLR being in a rally mode already.
Shark - the theory on inside days after a long trend in any direction is that it signals that buyers and sellers are getting indecisive and it can lead to a trend change. I don't know how successful this setup is though.
Has anyone been following NLS like I have? I have made some really good returns in this name since the beginning of February but I have been out since around $3.30. Anyway, take a look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nls
That's a really solid looking chart, with a clearly defined stop.
X- Was today simply a technical bounce off of the 200ema and it's latest trend line? If not, and this area is respected, I might have made a mistake by closing out positions here.
Heading for a little shut-eye. Let's kick some ass tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteLooking to be the sultan of swing trading. Nice video.
ReplyDeleteSo you crave some narduna all weekend. You finally get some and your in bed by 8:00 pm? Yowza that is some powerful stuff.
ReplyDeleteRobear.
RoBear- I don't need to step in for 2nd, but he'll be awake about 3-4 am :0)...I know, it seems crazy to me too, but JB does it also.
ReplyDeleteMark - It's always hard getting up in the morning!
ReplyDeleteI like getting up early too...but damn, nothings cooking THAT early :)
ReplyDeleteThat was a joke: ("it's" always hard)...!
ReplyDelete2nd's music posts always leads on e on a treasure hunt. Here is another off the Knopler links.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT-SFgkVlno&feature=related
Cant' find my way home
I always thought this is the greatest song of all time.
ReplyDeleteHad To Cry Today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F3czhKWc9U&feature=related
This gave me a good laugh.
ReplyDeleteAlthough The Glenlivet Nàdurra goes down incredibly smooth and buttery, it packs a serious kick. After a single glass, I was buzzing. After two, I was slurring my speech a little, and after three glasses, I was noticeably drunk and ready to remove my pants. I consider myself a pretty serious Scotch drinker, but I have never consumed one that has the kind of powerful effect that Nàdurra boasts over its lucky drinker. The drunk it provides is a very relaxed peaceful one. It almost makes you feel classier as you drink even if you can’t find your pants. The Nàdurra is a perfect selection for a drink after a long day of work to calm the nerves.
Tele that was clean. I didn't even know Winwood played guitar. That baby allman Trucks can play too.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLQTbmUYI4A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FlOJXL4j6k&feature=related
RIG article
ReplyDeletehttp://online.barrons.com/article/SB127267764941385119.html
Derek Trucks, very nice never heard of him before now. Is that Greg Allman and Dicky Betts in the second vid?
Yes, Derek Trucks is in the new line up of the Allman brothers as well as his own band. He is nephew of Original Allman drummer Butch Trucks. I have seen them a few times and they still play 3 hour psychedelic jam concerts. With old and new material. It is not just an oldy nostalgia type thing. The trucks kid does a admirable in the Duanne Allman parts. Waryn Haynes(big guy) the other guitarist is one of the best in the world.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCiLCo-LoUg
Yeah, The Allman brothers were never quite the same without Duane. Thanks.
ReplyDelete3:23 am ET
EURUSD at 1.322, not what people expected I bet.
S&P 1.5 to 4.5 pts up/down
Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteWhat's up?
330 am here just had a great tstorm:)
Hey shark,
ReplyDeleteGoing to kill it today. What are your gold thoughts with the Euro taking a powder. Will it go up with the dollar going up. That would be the sweet spot. Where all news is good for gold.
Bob
I slept like a baby, and woke with a pleasant aura. The Nadurra lives up to its reputation. Quick buzz followed by a prolonged mellow haze, no after-effects.
ReplyDeleteC off @ 4.46
ReplyDeleteExactly what I would have done.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys,
ReplyDeleteGold...Probably it's already realizing that the euro bailout is good for gold and, I suspect, ties to a degree the Fed's hands regarding tightening.
I have to say I feel a little bearish about the market in general.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Friday certainly scores as a bummer.
I really thought the "do over" from last Tuesday's slide would have
the market off to the races.
I guess the market didn't care what I thought.
It's not the end of the world though. So far, the bottom of the
short-term trading range has held.
Be selective, wait for entries, and honor your stops just in case.
Futures are firm pre-market.
And how out of touch is my buddy Warren Buffett?
ReplyDeleteHe can't even figure out that his political ally
(Obama) is about to turn on his investment, Goldman?
And now he comes out defending Goldman?
What a schmuck!
It's entirely possible that both GS and Obama defer to Buffett.
ReplyDeleteThe world is a complicated place. Any head of state needs all the help he can get, and one Rasputin isn't going to cut it.
ReplyDeleteWeisel resumes PAL with a price target of 6.50
ReplyDeleteWhat's max frustration here- straight up?
ReplyDeleteHEK off @ 6.12. All right, it can break out of this range now. If not I'll reload back under 5.80.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to buy some July and Sept in the money puts on SPY. Thought about it a lot over the weekend and I think it's finally a good time to start getting bearish.
ReplyDeleteWATG - sold my shares at $11.66 (small loss from $11.75ish). I'm getting flat on everything. Planning on going about 50% short and the rest in cash.
ReplyDeleteStill holding on to REDF though.
ReplyDeleteI'm out of this market...Sell in MAY baby.
ReplyDeleteI'm ready to go away.
I keep wondering why I can't go back to last MArch, put all my money on red (LVS) and walk away a retiree?
Sold TRMA at $3.22 average that I bought at $3.05.
ReplyDeleteBP might be a decent buy now...what do u guys think?
tof- Major shift in your sentiment noted.
ReplyDeleteThere are plenty of daytrading cowboys offering to "scalp along with me" for just a hair under 300 a month with occasional perks such as Sevruga and Stoli,
ReplyDelete....But how many of these gunslingers told you last May "ok, now is the time, go all in and hold for a freaking year, and then you won't need to send me 300 a month no more..."
Where were these guys then?
Now it's like, Oh cool, I made a quarter on a 70 dollar stock, aren't I the hotshot?
Me too 2nd....I am a bear with hair.
ReplyDeleteWhat happens next is, The dollar strengthens versus the Euro, pressuring U.S. stocks.
ReplyDeleteThen, the seasonal tendency kicks in and we have a selloff ino the summer, profit taking by those who knew what the HECK they were doing for a year, certainly not me.
2nd...Check out SLW>>>>^^^^^^^^^^^^
This market feels like it wants to go up.
ReplyDelete2nd - i'm not trying to muddy the waters (i.e., sway anyway)...my opinion is worth the same as everyone else...but when i see a stream of good news and the market can't go any higher, its time to go to cash or cash/shorts.
ReplyDeletei say this as WATG rips higher!
Bears are getting taken to the cleaners.
ReplyDeleteI told myself that if the market opened up higher today it would be a great starting point to get short. I'm taking this as an opportunity on the short side...
ReplyDeletetof- Opening a position in WATG @ 11.71- this just isn't bearish action right now.
ReplyDeleteSD off @ 7.55.
ReplyDeleteNaturally, my sentiment could change at any time ;)
ReplyDeleteHowever, maximum frustration would be another rip higher today...right back up to 1,205 or so.
ReplyDelete2nd - You're right on WATG right now...I could come to regret that but my thinking is the China economy, as evidenced by the weakness in the Shanghai and Hang Seng, will slow enough to cause investors to apply a lower multiple on stocks/companies that benefitted the most from their stimulus package. That means WATG could have a multiple compression despite having solid fundamentals. So I suspect we could have a better entry point.
ReplyDeleteJB- What's your take?
ReplyDeleteI'm watching AA, X, FCX...Hmmm. Not good. All though the A/D is really good.
ReplyDeleteMark - good catch on AA/X/FCX...those suckers sure are weak. What's strong today?
ReplyDeleteLooks like consumer cyclicals and transportation are strong today which is not indicative of a sell off. If we saw a strong market buoyed by defensive names it would bode better for bears.
ReplyDeleteOIH down 2%.
ReplyDeleteDamn, I traded HEK like a wuss today. Part of the issue for me was position size. Perhaps a little too big for a stock that is not clearly tending.
ReplyDeleteSD just fell off a cliff.
ReplyDeletePicked up a little AA @ 13.01...
ReplyDeleteGS rolling over.
ReplyDeletePAL @ 4.48...
ReplyDeleteGood catch on PAL 2nd. I was really close to reloading right there. Looks like X/AA/FCX have found support.
ReplyDeletePart of my thinking right here, although it's basically just a fleeting thought, would be- What if the sentiment signal that Hulbert brought up was worked off by last Friday's sell-off? ie, what if newsletter editors all suddenly took a bearish turn Friday night, but there hasn't been time to put that in print?
ReplyDeleteBoy's you have to be patient bears. I am guessing the dollar is real strong. The catalyst this whole run up has been the weak dollar and Emer market growth. Now nearly every Emerging market is heading south, but the US will keep going up? Some idiot on cnbc said it looks like THe us market has DECOUPLED from the rest of the world. What? I thought the USs only hope was strong economies else where.
ReplyDeleteNice buy on PAL 2nd.
ReplyDeleteRoBear - I gotta disagree man. The USD got stronger late last year and the market still went up. I don't agree with people that the market can only go up when the dollar goes down. This is a recent phenomenom but historically the markets have gone up with a rising dollar. And emerging markets got weaker/flat starting late last year and the US market still went up.
ReplyDeleteI'm leaning toward the bearish side of things now but you gotta give it to the US market for actually decoupling for the past 6 months. Same can be said for the Nikkei.
The single most important driving force for this morning's rally may just be 'bewildered bears.'
ReplyDeleteThe more bewildered-yet-confident they are, the more likely they are to open shorts or add to existing shorts. Which simply propels the market higher.
ReplyDeleteRight now it's just Carlos Santana ripping on a hot summer night. Throw in a shitload of shorts, and he's just invited Clapton on stage to rip his own Latin solo.
ReplyDeleteFor the last 3-months the dollar and gold have both trended up together. Silver was rocking earlier, $19 this month?
ReplyDeleteCould $100 oil be in the pipeline sometime in the next couple months?
ReplyDeleteGMO rocks, don't it?
ReplyDeletePAL- off @ 4.555. Just wanted to cover last night's early surprise Mother's Day dinner. Kids and I bought her an iTouch.
ReplyDeletelong gmo
ReplyDeleteRe: Jingo
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bull Hunter (982 comments) on Mon, 05/03/2010 - 11:55 #62077 (in reply to #62074)
Hi 2nd,
I'm not short (as of yet) but am bewildered by this market. Europe on the ropes, deficits soaring, high unemployment, rising oil and food prices......this market seems to defy all logic.
Your explanation is as good as any.
Regards,
BH
Re: Jingo newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4399 comments) on Mon, 05/03/2010 - 11:59 #62079 (in reply to #62077)
ReplyDeleteBH- As far as not (yet) having boarded the short train, I couldn't be happier to hear it, as I couldn't be hearing it from a nicer guy ;)
I have to say, I'm truly pleased to hear Bull Hunter was smart enough to stay away from the short play.
ReplyDeleteOk, I'm off to load up on cognac, grappa, and chicken food...
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work!
Last week’s top five stocks that were bought by their CEOs were GENERAL MOLY, INC, Apollo Investment Corp, Education Realty Trust Inc, Conexant Systems Inc, and Old Mutual/Claymore LongShort Fund. According to GuruFocus Insider Data, these are the largest CEO buys during the past week.
ReplyDeleteGENERAL MOLY, INC (GMO): CEO Bruce D Hansen Bought 100,000 Shares
CEO of GENERAL MOLY, INC (GMO) Bruce D Hansen bought 100,000 shares on 04/28/2010 at an average price of $3.74. General Moly is a U.S.-based molybdenum mineral exploration and development company listed on the American Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol GMO. General Moly, Inc has a market cap of $271.3 million; its shares were traded at around $3.74 .
General Molly recently reported its fourth quarter and full year 2009 results. Net loss for the three months ended December 31, 2009 was approximately $2.2 million ($0.03 per share) compared to a loss of $2.6 million ($0.04 per share) for the year ago period. Net loss for the full year ending December 31, 2009 was approximately $10.2 million ($0.14 per share) compared to a loss of $14.4 million ($0.21 per share) for the year ago period. Sell:: Director Richard F Nanna sold 25,000 shares of GMO stock on 04/26/2010 at the average price of 3.68, the price of the stock has increased by 1.63% since.
I'l always pulling for Bull Hunter, and those ridiculous upgrades.
ReplyDeleteMarket starting to rip now. Bear on the barbie.
ReplyDeleteBob
cp- Yeah, load up on the cognac, man. And shop around for the Nadurra. You'll need something special to celebrate with tonight.
ReplyDeleteWow...looks like more shorts got fried today. I'm adding a few more SPY $122 July puts here. I will stop myself out at about $121.30.
ReplyDeleteLooks like stops could be hit today. Yet another reminder to stay long or at the worst in cash.
ReplyDeletesold my last lot of SGEN @13.01...looks like you nailed the range exactly Mark.
ReplyDeleteshark- Mucho cojones going long GMO when you did- and the trade's working...
ReplyDeleteSold a little more REDF...now holding about 20% of original stake. I'm now about 90% cash, 5% short, 5% long.
ReplyDeletethanks man.
ReplyDeleteI would be looking to add to GMO at/around 4
ReplyDeletebought TZA at 5.60
ReplyDeletethat Aus 40% mining profits tax is going to be contagious, I think
adding TZA 5.58
ReplyDeleteI remember Bill once said that a sharply increased volatility around some price level after a VERY long move in some direction usually means a change in the trend is happening. People are very nervous, and they are ready to bail out of the trend en masse at the first sign of trouble. Looks like we are experiencing something like that now, after WEEKS of daily gains of less than 1% (and usually less than 0.5%), we are starting to have these large 1.5% up/down swings.
ReplyDeleteI just moved the rest of my TWM (400 shares) into a slightly larger TZA position (1500 shares) at $5.61. If the market continues higher, I'll move 1/2 of my SKF into FAZ and then, after a further rise, will move the second 1/2 of my SKF into FAZ.
David - I decided after much deliberating this weekend to join your esteemed camp in the bearish/cash camp.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking a lot about this very thing you mentioned...that the volatility has gone up quite a bit right around this point where we had a free fall from back in fall 2008. I don't think is a coincidence.
Add to this that people will soon be contemplating a rise in tax rates across the board for 2011 for businesses, a rise in oil prices that will crimp business profits, additional emphasis on sovereign debt issues and I thought it was a prudent time to lock in profits and begin speculating on the downside risks.
adding TZA at 5.56/5.55
ReplyDeleteIt is strange to see FCX down so much today with the market up so much. FCX is pretty oversold now, and I wouldn't want to see my short position in it shoot up 8% tomorrow. So I just covered at $73.15 the 200 shares I shorted on Friday at $75.95, for a gain of $550. The only way that FCX would continue going down noticeably is if the whole market would turn South as well, but I already have that case covered with my lateral move from TWM into TZA today.
ReplyDeleteDavid - do you think FCX is down due to the new tax policies out of ANZ?
ReplyDelete"David - do you think FCX is down due to the new tax policies out of ANZ?"
ReplyDeletePossibly so. But at this point it is pretty oversold, and anything can spark a rebound. I'll try to re-enter my FCX short after a rebound and then a move down, with a stop at the top of the rebound. At this point, however, I don't even know where to put a stop if I were to short FCX.
still long gmo
ReplyDeletegmo on the move
teamonfuego, you mentioned over the weekend that a weak GDP print fits very well with Jeremy Grantham's view of low Fed funds rate and the market trending higher. That's true in general, but remember that the *reason* for the market to move higher is *speculation* by traders who are borrowing at 0%. The speculators are a nervous crowd, and they all want to be smart and buy at the bottom of a correction like we had in January. So even if the market is destined to move higher for another year, a correction right now fits very well with the speculative nature of this whole rally.
ReplyDeleteKudos for 2nd for being in tune with the maket this am:)
ReplyDeleteCHK Off @ 24.30
ReplyDeleteadded TZA at 5.54...
ReplyDeleteso far not a good move, but IWM now at top of its uptrend channel
Eying TZA.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Right...I'm betting on a short term correction, but there is always the possibility that this past 2 weeks of drops has strengthened the bulls even more, noting that the market can't be pushed down more than 2 or 3%. While people were pointing to an over bought market as evidence for a sell-off, the fact is the market is no longer overbought. It has traded sideways for 2 and a half weeks now.
ReplyDeleteAt least UNG is up today. :) But who cares now, after it has disappointed the investors so many times now. That's the mood we need for a real rally. It would have been too easy to rally straight up after such a long decline -- everyone would have been on board of that rally in that case, which isn't possible.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, the UNG chart shows the same trend-changing behavior we discussed earlier today with respect to S&P: a loooong decline followed by a sideways action with a sharply increased volatility.
"While people were pointing to an over bought market as evidence for a sell-off, the fact is the market is no longer overbought. It has traded sideways for 2 and a half weeks now."
ReplyDeleteThat's right. The maximum frustration right now would be another push higher by the market, say to 1240 on the S&P (so as to clear Bill's target of 1229 and suck him in on the long side along with all other technicians), followed by a move down to 1000, followed by a move to 1300 -- you get the idea. :)
Guys we should be looking to add GMO if you are an investor, or just someone who likes stocks that go up.
ReplyDeleteAnother interesting point about UNG: it made an intraday double bottom today at $6.83, which was also its intraday low on March 31, before the first sharp rebound has begun. That was also the 61.8% retracement level on the front-month futures of the rally between September 2009 (when the futures bottomed out at $2.75, I think) and January 2010 (when they were around $6). So today's intraday double bottom might be significant.
ReplyDeleteNow we are having the pattern of increased volatility during a sideways motion intraday on the Dow. If that pattern results to the downside in the Dow (an intraday trend change), then I'll bet that all other patterns we discussed today will result in a trend change as well. :)
ReplyDeleteTZA- I'd like to see another test of 5.53.
ReplyDeleteteamonfuego -- I have just looked at the 1-year chart of S&P, and the slope of the steady ascent between January and April was higher than the slope of the ascent between July and December 2009, and so a straight-line move now to 1300 would give us yet another increase in the slope, which would make this whole thing look truly parabolic. Parabolic moves always end with spectacular declines. So long-term market bulls should hope for a 10% correction now, rather than a move to 1300 and a 30% correction then.
ReplyDeleteX- THAT'S an impressive move. Take a look at a daily for PXP.
ReplyDeleteXLE pulling back hard.
ReplyDeletewe could give up 1/3-1/2 of the gains here today.
ReplyDeleteOut of GMO 4.32 gotta take it to the bank:)
ReplyDelete"Take the money and run on BST:)"
I am thinking that the X, FCX, AA are all getting concerned with a rising price of oil, which increases their metal extraction costs.
ReplyDeletegreat move, shark! Go for that Nadurra! :)
ReplyDeleteJB- I'm thinking the same thing, but not seeing it yet. Every little inta-day dip has been bought....so far.
ReplyDeleteBought 1000 shares of TZA for a day trade.
ReplyDeletePlacing a sell stop limit order at $5.51/$5.50.
ReplyDeleteMy entry price on TZA was $5.58, and I'll add another 1000 shares at $5.54, if we get there.
ReplyDeleteMark -- no, every rally since Dow has plateaued 3 hrs ago has been sold.
ReplyDeleteSelling remainder of REDF here...
ReplyDeleteOK, we are heading down now. I placed a sell limit order at $5.73 for the 1000 shares of TZA purchased today at $5.58. We will probably have a sharp drop now over the next 10-15 minutes followed by a traditional rebound into the close.
ReplyDeleteout of TZA at 5.63 for 3000 profit
ReplyDeleteoil has turned red for the day...
ReplyDeleteDavid- Just flip the chart upside down and you'll get it :)
ReplyDeleteGood job Cheapy- I knew you'd take it there.
Thanks David. This is fun:)
ReplyDeleteWhere were we the day the Globe.com went public?
faz @11.71
ReplyDeleteMan, the market can't just end the day on the same plateau it is now! It has to move somewhere, right? Or can the market *really* do anything it wants?
ReplyDeletetza@5.58, holding faz/tza overnight
ReplyDeleteJB- Use the appropriate protection.
ReplyDeleteBidding TZA @ 5.47. Let's see if it get's swept up in the close.
ReplyDelete"appropriate protection"...if I'd been smart enough to follow that advice I'd be childless!
ReplyDeletejust kidding...Taylor's team won small school nationals and she ended up with 1 gold and three silver medals.
come to think of it perhpas the milkman IS the father...ha, ha
I placed a sell limit order at $5.54 for the 1000 TZA shares I picked up today. So far, 500 shares were sold.
ReplyDeleteThe other 500 were sold now, for a total loss of $40 on this day trade. It could have worked out so well...
ReplyDeletere: TZA, looks like that was as good an exit as I was gonna get
ReplyDeleteNice move in UXG today. I have just placed sell limit orders for 500 shares at $3.65 and $3.75.
ReplyDeleteexcellent timing on TZA, Bob! I didn't do nearly as well...
ReplyDeletegood luck guys on the TZA. I'm short SPY and have a few SPY June/July in the money puts. I don't like the double/triple ETFs, especially if I'm looking to short for at least a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, today was an inside day. I'm not sure how profitable these days are in terms of trading opportunities, but I believe the theory is inside days are signs of a change in trend.
ReplyDeletemy initial TZA entries were lousy, but on the exit I did as well as I could have under the circumstances. Had I not started buying till 5.56 it would have been a significantly better day.
ReplyDeleteUh oh-
ReplyDelete"I got stopped out of virtually no positions today and have been amp'ing up my SPY short and created new longs in SKF and TWM. I'm getting shorter 'n' shorter. Can't believe anyone would actually buy into this rally today. C'mon guys. Grow a pair."
Guess who..
Initials are the first two letters of one of Landry's favorite set-ups.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- at some point he will be right, like a broken clock! :)
ReplyDeleteFor all you trend following traders: check out the 1-year chart of ECU.TO. It traced out a higher low (at 0.6 vs. 0.5) over the last few months and looks to me as being on the path of rising above $1 soon. I have a large stake in it already, and I think it will turn out to be a winning lottery ticket for me.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the recent headlines from Yahoo finance:
- ECU Silver Added to Global X Silver Miners ETF and Is Also Featured in Resource World Magazine(Mon 3:00AM EDT)
- CEO Clips is Featuring ECU Silver on BNN(Tue, Apr 27)
- ECU Silver Announces New Appointments, CCNMatthews(Mon, Apr 26)
- ECU Silver Reports Best Operating Month in March 2010(Wed, Apr 14)
When a forgotten mining stock (with ever improving fundamentals such as steadily increasing production of gold and silver) starts rising to prominence, its stock price can do wonders.
Are the initials RB for RoBear?
ReplyDeleteWho is Landry that everyone talks about.
ReplyDeletehere you go RoBear:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.davelandry.com/
GMO - $4.30 is the upper trend line, can she break out? More insider buying, in addition to last report.
ReplyDeleteUNH - A little disappointing, hanging out at the lower trend line here.
Who fired the bug gun @13:30???
BP - Really should've gone for the premium shutoff valve(s), an additional $500k sure looks like a bargain now! How do they plan on capping their "spectacular" well that far down under the sea, with a nuclear device??? Sure, we'll see about that...
I am placing buy limit orders on ESLR for 1000 shares each at $1.10 and $1.01. The company has just had their first profitable quarter and totally doesn't look to be on the path to bankruptcy (despite being almost priced for one). There is also a feeling that the whole solar sector is close to a turning point, with the flagship FSLR being in a rally mode already.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteWould you elaborate on the inside day business, for the sake of the room?
Shark - the theory on inside days after a long trend in any direction is that it signals that buyers and sellers are getting indecisive and it can lead to a trend change. I don't know how successful this setup is though.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone been following NLS like I have? I have made some really good returns in this name since the beginning of February but I have been out since around $3.30. Anyway, take a look at this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=nls
That's a really solid looking chart, with a clearly defined stop.
I think he means todays candlestick on the daily is contained inside friday's candlestick.
ReplyDeleteRobear.
On what, the Dow? The S and P's?
ReplyDeleterobear - yeah, meant to add that too. you can see it clearly here:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
I have the SPY closing right on top of the 20 again.
ReplyDeletechicken, you buying tonight?
ReplyDeleteyes, i like that rational on playing solar david.
ReplyDeletethe stock market is all about political power
i am bettin on the bank
X- Was today simply a technical bounce off of the 200ema and it's latest trend line? If not, and this area is respected, I might have made a mistake by closing out positions here.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/NzA5NDJkZ
will someone text me next time when there is a no brainer stock trade? man, missed gmo but glad for shark and cp!
ReplyDeletewell, not "no brainer" that didn't come out right.
ReplyDeletei meant, just text me when there is a major money op