2nd - I know you're long term bullish on C. I'm assuming you know how many shares outstanding they have...what kind of return are you expecting? If this stock doubles the valuation would be 45% higher than JPM, all because of share dilution.
I now have shares of C and WATG in the 8-year-old's account. I don't try too hard to project price targets. I just think they go up, a lot, by the time he needs the money.
Sure, all drinks are on me tonight, I certainly have no problem with that whatsoever!
Didn't expect such a big move for GMO today and wouldn't be surprised to see it give it all back tomorrow but consider where it might go if/when they actually start roasting moly...
Sharkie - Were you looking at that 10/08 support level(blip) for today's exit decision or were you just feeling it out? A close better than $4.35 sure would be nice.
2nd - i wish i could do that too but the whole total market cap thing keeps me away from them. How about IBKC? Have you checked them out? They are taking advantage of all of these FDIC-assisted closings and has a lot more upside and less dilution.
What about WATG- I assume you feel the same way about their long-term prospects, but you obviously now believe you can find a better entry. When it comes to LT plays, I would say an entry at 9=10=11=12...when you look back from the vantage point of 110, it won't matter- a one-dollar move then becomes part of the daily back-and-forth, and you can make back the difference then if you wish.
Re C- well, everyone knows someone who banks at C. So I think it gets added to a shitload of mutual funds when it finally crosses back over the border into blue-chip territory. It may take years. But that's why I like buying it now.
2nd - Yeah I totally see your reasoning on WATG and I'm pretty sure I will be back in it really soon. However, with Citigroup I can't see it going much higher than say $6 because of the shares outstanding. Even at that level the market cap of the entire company is right around JPM. I doubt anyone would assign that kind of a valuation on the company.
cheapy- Let me offer a possible 'solution' to that problem. Next time you want to jump in, don't. Note the impulse in a journal. Wait 10-20-30 minutes. If you're glad you waited, it makes a dent in the neural pathway(s) that led you to the original impulse. Wait another 10-20-30 minutes. And so on. When it finally goes your way, note that as well. Positive feedback is generally more powerful than negative feedback when it comes to learning.
tof- I'm completely ready to play the short side should we begin to sell off again. I didn't see that happening today. It may happen tomorrow- but we won't know until then.
2nd - I might have to start investing in my 401k's emerging markets fund...maybe in thirds. I mentioned how this could be the same exact action that the S&P 500 saw in the summer of 2004. I remember people writing about how the trend lines were broken and it was the start of the next leg down. In hindsight that was a great time to buy.
I'll give it a try, 2nd. It almost always is that my initial buys go underwater, anyway, on everything, and its only the doubling and tripling at yet lower levels that save me when eventually things bounce from the panic.
Team your chart showing the inside day. If you go back to right before the January correction the bars look similar. Big moves in both directions. I have no memory, what was the headline reason for the sell off.My memory is shot.
OH MY GOD!!! You have your hands full RB!! I can't even control my 2 year old boy..Even a spoon is a bat/hockey stick to him. I have a new found respect for you, my friend :)!!
"Boots & Coots Inc. of Houston and Amarillo, Texas-based GSM Enterprises Inc., two of the companies that extinguished hundreds of oil wells in Kuwait set ablaze by retreating Iraqi troops in 1990, have been brought in to help cap the leaks. "
"Growing worries about potential lawsuits and other costs of the oil spill in the wake of its rapid spread led investors to clobber stocks of companies involved in the Deepwater Horizon well Thursday.
Halliburton fell 5.3% to $31.60 and Cameron International Corp., which built the blowout-prevention equipment that didn't stop the explosion, dropped 13% to $38.70, both at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
The timing of the cementing in relation to the blast—and the procedure's history of causing problems—point to it as a possible culprit in the Deepwater Horizon disaster, experts said.
"The initial likely cause of gas coming to the surface had something to do with the cement," said Robert MacKenzie, managing director of energy and natural resources at FBR Capital Markets and a former cementing engineer in the oil industry.
Several other drilling experts agreed, though they cautioned that the investigation into what went wrong at the Deepwater Horizon site is still in its preliminary stages.
The problem could have been a faulty cement plug at the bottom of the well, he said. Another possibility would be that cement between the pipe and well walls didn't harden properly and allowed gas to pass through it.
A 2007 study by three U.S. Minerals Management Service officials found that cementing was a factor in 18 of 39 well blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico over a 14-year period. That was the single largest factor, ahead of equipment failure and pipe failure.
The Halliburton cementers would have sought approval for their plans—the type of cement and how much would be used—from a BP official on board the rig before carrying out their job. Scott Dean, a BP spokesman, said it was premature to speculate on the role cement might have played in the disaster.
Halliburton also was the cementer on a well that suffered a big blowout last August in the Timor Sea, off Australia. The rig there caught fire and a well leaked tens of thousands of barrels of oil over 10 weeks before it was shut down. The investigation is continuing; Halliburton declined to comment on it.
Elmer P. Danenberger, who had recently retired as head of regulatory affairs for the U.S. Minerals Management Service, told the Australian commission looking into the blowout that a poor cement job was probably the reason oil and natural gas gushed out of control."
Chickie do you ever short stocks. Pair trades fascinate me although I have never put one on. A nice one might be a short BP, long SU. The SU protects you from a sudden spike in Oil and Bp with its trouble could go down more then Su on a Spike down. Or you could hit a sweet spot in a slowly rising oil market where SU goes up while Bp goes down due to there environmental disasters. Or you could just short BP and long GMO and call it a day.
There was an aspect to yesterdays trading that seemed irrational and giddy.
I am flipping to bearish. Of course, the market will still be good for long trades, but more and more, daytrades eh? At the same time, shortists will become emboldened to hold those short positions....maybe.
Dollar's on a rip...palladium can't get a grip....It's crashing like Lyndsay after she exposes her crotch to the papparazi, goes home smokes crack all day and falls asleep.
I am glad Obama's drilling regime is getting deep-sixed by the spill in the Gulf.....
The problem with liberals, and I am one myself, but the problem with them is, they are too willing to compromise, and too willing to believe that compromise is necessary.
My feeling as president would be, neutralize Iran, send a message to the other camel-jockey nation-deserts. For Christsake guys, the way they treat women, if nothing else, justifies my comments.
Suck the oil out of every little patch of desert, and off the shores of every other country but not ours, leaving it in the ground as a long term strategic resource.
It does seem 2nd that a trend change may be occuring. After yesterday today makes no damn sense except in the context of a corection, right? Today it should be off to the races, but no.
You yourself said the other day that the size of the days plus their volume spoke....volumes about a possible trend change.
I have been saying for a year the very contrary view that China was fucked without a rubber duck economically. Those prognostications are indeed coming to pass.
2nd - the $118.30 ish area is a good spot for a small bounce but keep in mind that this action over the past week or two is not bullish. It certainly seems like we're in a downtrend.
I noticed also that the Hang Seng officially made a series of lower lows and lower highs, confirming what the Shanghai Composite has been saying for a little while now. I read somewhere that the loan activity in China basically fell off a cliff in April. I'm not sure if this is a short term thing or not, but it signals caution. With the S&P only off 3% from highs I think we still have some room to fall before jumping in again.Makes you wonder what those people buying $40 VIX calls in June a few weeks ago were thinking.
Then again, today might just be that day. We're looking at a big jump in the VIX with a decent amout of volume so far.
Not so sure, tof. Something tells me to buy this dip as well. But I plan to be prudent and stay on the sidelines for now. The additional WATG shares are a ST play, but I'm more or less in cash and like you, waiting for that big sell-off.
I'd have to suspect a big fight to maintain support above $118.30. I just read that there is a rumor from Charlie Gasparino over at Fox that GS is going to begin settlement talks...maybe they are trying to support the market with this.
I'm in agreement with Bill about loving the color red. Nothing I'd like more than a prolonged/sharp spike down to the AZ. Not since May 2009 have I been able to just sit and watch the buy-and-hold half print money.
"As they say, watch my actions (not my opinions)."
2nd - That's only possible b/c you post your trades. There are some who open their mouths but won't post their trades, and I think it's fair to consider that lying.
CLH - It's hard to dump UNH for a switch to CLH, even though I know the recent owners of CLH are just birds in flight. Gotta wait till most of them have taken flight.
1175 seems to be the line. Could get a bounce here. Buy the dip? See if that level holds a retest. If not I think a -3% day. If market could get up past 1195. Might be Waterloo for the bears.
Can Molybdenum be used as a catalyst to split the H2O bond?
"Seeking to drive the cost of electrolysis down to more reasonable levels, the Berkeley Lab team devised a high-valence metal they're calling Mo-oxo for molybdenum-oxo (PY5Me2, for you chem. geeks out there). The catalyst requires no additional organic additives or solvents, can operate in neutral water (even if it's dirty) and works with sea water -- meaning we could literally be looking at oceans of cheap energy. Best of all: Mo-oxo is about 70 times cheaper than platinum."
"Our new proton reduction catalyst is based on a molybdenum-oxo metal complex that is about 70 times cheaper than platinum, today's most widely used metal catalyst for splitting the water molecule," said Hemamala Karunadasa, one of the co-discoverers of this complex. "In addition, our catalyst does not require organic additives, and can operate in neutral water, even if it is dirty, and can operate in sea water, the most abundant source of hydrogen on earth and a natural electrolyte. These qualities make our catalyst ideal for renewable energy and sustainable chemistry."
Karunadasa holds joint appointments with Berkeley Lab's Chemical Sciences Division and UC Berkeley's Chemistry Department. She is the lead author of a paper describing this work that appears in the April 29, 2010 issue of the journal Nature, titled "A molecular molybdenum-oxo catalyst for generating hydrogen from water." Co-authors of this paper were Christopher Chang and Jeffrey Long, who also hold joint appointments with Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley. Chang, in addition, is also an investigator with the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI)."
indeed 2nd - i think we will touch it and possibly break it on this correction. i'm betting on a bounce to the 118.10 area before a resumption of a downtrend.
tof's speaking for himself. I like to think of myself as more the 7% solution type, injecting the purified form in the study while making astute observations about the market.
Cmon 2nd...Of COURSE you will hear from me, do you think I can shut up until Spetember?
Besides I'd miss you guys.
I just think, for the record, the die is cast and even though we will have strong upmoves, no doubt, I think the trend has changed and the market will correct for a period of time. How long? I will ask the Fibbonacci-minded to weigh in. I will still watch the market but I plan on trading only very judicously.
Alright. Let me collect for hearing from you before September, and for bets riding on within 24 hours and within the hour. Should have covered the option for within 30 minutes also. ;)
TOF: the really schizo scenario would be a +2% rise tomorrow. I think the chances of that are pretty low, so I probably won't take any profits on the short side today (the lateral move into TZA at $5.61 yesterday is working out well so far, but TZA could easily run to $9-$10 if we get something like a January correction here).
"It looks like 1,150 is now in range. I'm holding on to my SPY puts from yesterday."
You are amazing, TOF. Riding this unreal rally all the way to the top and then switching into a large short position right at the top. How much better can you get?
"2nd- Yes. I closed about 1/2 on Friday and the other 1/2 yesterday. Only have UNG/CRYP left."
Here is another great trader disguised as a builder. :) Jumping into the obvious madness and riding it up to the end of the madness. Congratulations, Mark.
David - Thanks, but I have had some pit stops on the way in my "trading" account. I only wish I could have had the same performance as my long term account in all others...
I forgot to mention that UXG hit my sell limit order at $3.65 today for 500 shares and then promptly collapsed with the rest of the market. As I said before, UXG was NEVER able to withstand a correction in the broad market, and so I think I was given a God-given opportunity to reduce my position during this UXG rally, which coincided with the top in the broad market.
CP: MON is a solid company with a 15% earnings growth under their new conservative long-term oriented strategy, and so a decline like that in the stock should be bought. I would be buying MON now for the long term if I had the money. Unfortunately, it is all tied up in NGas and my ultrashorts. But I hope to scale out with profit out of those positions, and I will be rotating money into MON.
Thank you for the article, T3D. MON is moving past Roundup now, and the problems people are experiencing with Roundup will only make the demand for its new products bigger. Don't forget also that US + Europe is going to become less and less important as a target market for MON relative to Asia and Latin/South America, where MANY more people want to eat at any cost.
Hm... My crappy Canadian explorers have collapsed today and SLV took a big hit, and as a result the net change for today in all my 3 accounts is only +$300. If this sell-off continues, however, then the exponential compounding will kick in with my ultrashorts (while the absolute drop in my long positions will keep decreasing), so the net result should keep improving...
David, interesting it would not surprise me that MON had a good idea that resistance would become a problem while at the same time developing the next great seed/product that they can market as a solution and minimizing the impact of generic sales on its roundup product. Just call me skeptical.
Guys - I don't think it's coincidental that the peak of this rally was right where it fell from in 2008. I don't know if this is typically bearish or not, but that is major overhead resistance.
SP 500, in addition what TOF said we have so far failed at the 61.80% retracement, while I had expected that we would fail at the 50% level, I guess never under estimate the power of 0% interest rates and a wall of liquidity.
RoBear- In reply to your question:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.slopeofhope.com/
2nd - I know you're long term bullish on C. I'm assuming you know how many shares outstanding they have...what kind of return are you expecting? If this stock doubles the valuation would be 45% higher than JPM, all because of share dilution.
ReplyDeleteI now have shares of C and WATG in the 8-year-old's account. I don't try too hard to project price targets. I just think they go up, a lot, by the time he needs the money.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to investing, I've found that it's easy to think too much.
ReplyDeleteIt's like playing ball or playing music- just do it.
Sure, all drinks are on me tonight, I certainly have no problem with that whatsoever!
ReplyDeleteDidn't expect such a big move for GMO today and wouldn't be surprised to see it give it all back tomorrow but consider where it might go if/when they actually start roasting moly...
Sharkie - Were you looking at that 10/08 support level(blip) for today's exit decision or were you just feeling it out? A close better than $4.35 sure would be nice.
Currently, I just wish there'd been a little yellow birdie whispering in my ear when GMO was trading for a buck!
ReplyDelete2nd - i wish i could do that too but the whole total market cap thing keeps me away from them. How about IBKC? Have you checked them out? They are taking advantage of all of these FDIC-assisted closings and has a lot more upside and less dilution.
ReplyDeleteWhat about WATG- I assume you feel the same way about their long-term prospects, but you obviously now believe you can find a better entry. When it comes to LT plays, I would say an entry at 9=10=11=12...when you look back from the vantage point of 110, it won't matter- a one-dollar move then becomes part of the daily back-and-forth, and you can make back the difference then if you wish.
ReplyDeleteRe C- well, everyone knows someone who banks at C. So I think it gets added to a shitload of mutual funds when it finally crosses back over the border into blue-chip territory. It may take years. But that's why I like buying it now.
ReplyDelete2nd - Yeah I totally see your reasoning on WATG and I'm pretty sure I will be back in it really soon. However, with Citigroup I can't see it going much higher than say $6 because of the shares outstanding. Even at that level the market cap of the entire company is right around JPM. I doubt anyone would assign that kind of a valuation on the company.
ReplyDeleteI did pretty well today, all things considered, but can't help but wonder why it is my brain never lets me play the right side of things.
ReplyDeletecheapy- Let me offer a possible 'solution' to that problem. Next time you want to jump in, don't. Note the impulse in a journal. Wait 10-20-30 minutes. If you're glad you waited, it makes a dent in the neural pathway(s) that led you to the original impulse. Wait another 10-20-30 minutes. And so on. When it finally goes your way, note that as well. Positive feedback is generally more powerful than negative feedback when it comes to learning.
ReplyDeletetof- I'm completely ready to play the short side should we begin to sell off again. I didn't see that happening today. It may happen tomorrow- but we won't know until then.
ReplyDeleteyeah, i'm not yet ready to fully commit to the short side. in fact, if we open/trade above $121.30 on SPY then I'll be out of my trade.
ReplyDeleteI'd have to imagine the Shanghai composite will find a bottom soon, no? It's down 10% in the past 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteTOF- 121.30. I can't see anything specific to that level. Just a percentage area?
ReplyDeleteShanghai opened down another 1.7%, but as of right now has retraced half of the gap down.
ReplyDeleteMark - that's a bit higher than the previous high from last week. I want to give it a little room in case its just a short squeeze.
ReplyDeleteCheapy said "can't help but wonder why it is my brain never lets me play the right side of things."
ReplyDeletePersonally, I suspect GS is playing with our brains, they constantly try turning us upside down to shake all the coins out of our pockets.
And that's what it's all about (for GS)?
Now I want to sing the "pocket full of posy's" song.
2nd - I might have to start investing in my 401k's emerging markets fund...maybe in thirds. I mentioned how this could be the same exact action that the S&P 500 saw in the summer of 2004. I remember people writing about how the trend lines were broken and it was the start of the next leg down. In hindsight that was a great time to buy.
ReplyDeleteOh boy, Shanghai is still falling? Wonder if their bottom will be our top?
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks...I thought it might have been the worlds smallest "head and shoulder pattern" :)
ReplyDelete2nd- I saw that...this could be interesting. The ES just sneezed.
Shanghai closes in the green (red, if you use 'Chinese coloring')
ReplyDelete2nd - I agree.
ReplyDeleteI'll give it a try, 2nd. It almost always is that my initial buys go underwater, anyway, on everything, and its only the doubling and tripling at yet lower levels that save me when eventually things bounce from the panic.
ReplyDeleteI don't like this. 2nd, TOF, I agree also. I suspect it is a case of, "OK, so that's it?".
ReplyDeleteMark - or a case of selling fatigue?
ReplyDeleteAustralia index doing the opposite of the Shanghai...probably because of the mining tax.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Hmmm. Could be. That would be far more bullish.
ReplyDeleteIf we get another big down day then this market is officially schitzo.
ReplyDeleteChicken,
ReplyDeleteIt came down to 2 related questions....
Will I be able to sell this tomorrow for what it's worth now?
Will I be able to buy this back tomorrow for less than it is now worth?
Whichever one of those questions seems more likely dictates my decisons. I still like GMO a lot obviously. Congratulations on your position.
2nd...Ever hear Allen Holdsworth?
Hang Seng just fell off a cliff...sorry for posting so much. I'm still working and am getting bored.
ReplyDeleteLooks like 20,778 is a big line in the sand for the Hang Seng.
ReplyDeleteTOF- The only way to get banned here is apologizing for something. Still working here too for a meeting tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteTeam your chart showing the inside day. If you go back to right before the January correction the bars look similar. Big moves in both directions. I have no memory, what was the headline reason for the sell off.My memory is shot.
ReplyDelete2nd:Does Tim knight have any money left?
....On 2nd's job. Trying to find a little cushion for him :)
ReplyDeleteRB (RoBear)- How old are your kids?
ReplyDeleteGood luck with the meeting Mark.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks..I'll close the deal, it's up to 2nd who wants to run the project to make us some money :)
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteI have three boys, 18 15, 13. Basically destroying my house. Anyone have a switch they can send me.
Bob
OH MY GOD!!! You have your hands full RB!! I can't even control my 2 year old boy..Even a spoon is a bat/hockey stick to him. I have a new found respect for you, my friend :)!!
ReplyDeleteI can't believe nobody here's riding the CLH wave. Why not, folks??? This one's going to be good for a few years...
ReplyDeleteClean Harbors Eh. Isn't that an Oxymoron. You think after its 5 % move it is still a good entry?
ReplyDeleteI pointed this one out mid last week, they're getting contracts to remediate the environmental pooch screw in the gulf.
ReplyDeleteThey're gonna be making money hand over fist for a few years.
Enough of this BS with UNH... In my case, if UNH doesn't straighten up tomorrow, I'm gonna dump it and look for an entry in CLH.
Oh man, BP is so screwed, they'll be lucky to walk away from this without having lost everything plus all their young and the kitchen sink.
ReplyDeleteHaliburton was the contractor who cemented the well casing, does anyone know if the casing is still intact?
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking it is... and I'm also wondering if someone's going to make a counter offer on Boots and Coots...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=a2..tsZGi8tQ
"Boots & Coots Inc. of Houston and Amarillo, Texas-based GSM Enterprises Inc., two of the companies that extinguished hundreds of oil wells in Kuwait set ablaze by retreating Iraqi troops in 1990, have been brought in to help cap the leaks. "
From Wall St Journal:
ReplyDelete"Growing worries about potential lawsuits and other costs of the oil spill in the wake of its rapid spread led investors to clobber stocks of companies involved in the Deepwater Horizon well Thursday.
Halliburton fell 5.3% to $31.60 and Cameron International Corp., which built the blowout-prevention equipment that didn't stop the explosion, dropped 13% to $38.70, both at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
The timing of the cementing in relation to the blast—and the procedure's history of causing problems—point to it as a possible culprit in the Deepwater Horizon disaster, experts said.
"The initial likely cause of gas coming to the surface had something to do with the cement," said Robert MacKenzie, managing director of energy and natural resources at FBR Capital Markets and a former cementing engineer in the oil industry.
Several other drilling experts agreed, though they cautioned that the investigation into what went wrong at the Deepwater Horizon site is still in its preliminary stages.
The problem could have been a faulty cement plug at the bottom of the well, he said. Another possibility would be that cement between the pipe and well walls didn't harden properly and allowed gas to pass through it.
A 2007 study by three U.S. Minerals Management Service officials found that cementing was a factor in 18 of 39 well blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico over a 14-year period. That was the single largest factor, ahead of equipment failure and pipe failure.
The Halliburton cementers would have sought approval for their plans—the type of cement and how much would be used—from a BP official on board the rig before carrying out their job. Scott Dean, a BP spokesman, said it was premature to speculate on the role cement might have played in the disaster.
Halliburton also was the cementer on a well that suffered a big blowout last August in the Timor Sea, off Australia. The rig there caught fire and a well leaked tens of thousands of barrels of oil over 10 weeks before it was shut down. The investigation is continuing; Halliburton declined to comment on it.
Elmer P. Danenberger, who had recently retired as head of regulatory affairs for the U.S. Minerals Management Service, told the Australian commission looking into the blowout that a poor cement job was probably the reason oil and natural gas gushed out of control."
Chickie do you ever short stocks. Pair trades fascinate me although I have never put one on. A nice one might be a short BP, long SU. The SU protects you from a sudden spike in Oil and Bp with its trouble could go down more then Su on a Spike down. Or you could hit a sweet spot in a slowly rising oil market where SU goes up while Bp goes down due to there environmental disasters. Or you could just short BP and long GMO and call it a day.
ReplyDeleteLooks like those who held shorts overnight are today's opening winners. Not a good day for me in that regard.
ReplyDeleteCheapy - think I should dump tza, faz now or hold a bit longer. not sure how far we'll drop at the open.
ReplyDeletethx
There was an aspect to yesterdays trading that seemed irrational and giddy.
ReplyDeleteI am flipping to bearish. Of course, the market will still be good for long trades, but more and more, daytrades eh? At the same time, shortists will become emboldened to hold those short positions....maybe.
I foresee a gap down. Yeah, I meant to post that last night- sorry for the late comment.
ReplyDeleteJB- Bird in the hand?
ReplyDeleteMy last comment was a joke, of course.
ReplyDeleteDollar's on a rip...palladium can't get a grip....It's crashing like Lyndsay after she exposes her crotch to the papparazi, goes home smokes crack all day and falls asleep.
ReplyDeleteI am glad Obama's drilling regime is getting deep-sixed by the spill in the Gulf.....
The problem with liberals, and I am one myself, but the problem with them is, they are too willing to compromise, and too willing to believe that compromise is necessary.
My feeling as president would be, neutralize Iran, send a message to the other camel-jockey nation-deserts. For Christsake guys, the way they treat women, if nothing else, justifies my comments.
Suck the oil out of every little patch of desert, and off the shores of every other country but not ours, leaving it in the ground as a long term strategic resource.
My previous comment was not:)
ReplyDeleteIt does seem 2nd that a trend change may be occuring. After yesterday today makes no damn sense except in the context of a corection, right? Today it should be off to the races, but no.
Palladium going down like....like...
ReplyDeleteI am tempted to say like my ex gf after a few sips of beer, but that would be a rude nasty comment:)
Damn I miss her:)
yep bro, was nice to book a couple of winners.
ReplyDeletejumping on calls now thru mid day so i'll be back for the close.
WATG @ 11.36.
ReplyDeleteDamn- the selling's picking up.
ReplyDeleteMan this market is schizo.
ReplyDelete2nd - WATG broke through support at $11.31.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind Vad's target of 118.21 on the SPY.
ReplyDeletetof- Nice move exiting WATG yesterday at 11.66.
ReplyDeleteTeam,
ReplyDeleteYou yourself said the other day that the size of the days plus their volume spoke....volumes about a possible trend change.
I have been saying for a year the very contrary view that China was fucked without a rubber duck economically. Those prognostications are indeed coming to pass.
Looks like X is going to make a run for the 200sma. I'm placing a stink bid (maybe?!) @ 49.80.
ReplyDeleteWe can expect at least a little 'reflex' buying here.
ReplyDeleteDamn..I'm guessing I side stepped about a 7K hit so far.
ReplyDelete2nd - the $118.30 ish area is a good spot for a small bounce but keep in mind that this action over the past week or two is not bullish. It certainly seems like we're in a downtrend.
ReplyDeleteI noticed also that the Hang Seng officially made a series of lower lows and lower highs, confirming what the Shanghai Composite has been saying for a little while now. I read somewhere that the loan activity in China basically fell off a cliff in April. I'm not sure if this is a short term thing or not, but it signals caution. With the S&P only off 3% from highs I think we still have some room to fall before jumping in again.Makes you wonder what those people buying $40 VIX calls in June a few weeks ago were thinking.
Then again, today might just be that day. We're looking at a big jump in the VIX with a decent amout of volume so far.
cp- What are you planning to do with GMO? Hang tight or take profits?
ReplyDeleteES just above S2 @ 1176.50.
ReplyDeleteNot so sure, tof. Something tells me to buy this dip as well. But I plan to be prudent and stay on the sidelines for now. The additional WATG shares are a ST play, but I'm more or less in cash and like you, waiting for that big sell-off.
ReplyDelete2nd - if the 118.3 area holds for the day (i.e., closes above it), then we're still in the 1183 to 1215ish range.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, taking the WATG I bought this morning @ 11.36 off @ 11.04.
ReplyDeleteTaking the AA I bought yesterday @ 13.01 off @ 12.69.
100% cash.
As they say, watch my actions (not my opinions).
Natty coming back. I'll look to re-enter all 3 plays as soon as it seems "safe"....ok, safer.
ReplyDeleteGS is moving higher.
ReplyDeleteme too 2nd...on the sidelines.
ReplyDeleteI'd have to suspect a big fight to maintain support above $118.30. I just read that there is a rumor from Charlie Gasparino over at Fox that GS is going to begin settlement talks...maybe they are trying to support the market with this.
ReplyDeleteI'm in agreement with Bill about loving the color red. Nothing I'd like more than a prolonged/sharp spike down to the AZ. Not since May 2009 have I been able to just sit and watch the buy-and-hold half print money.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Seems to be holding her own for now, as long as she can maintain a $4 handle I'm not willing to cut her loose.
ReplyDeleteThis market sure is sucking mud Luke, I'm going to have to re-read the chapter on the mysterious horse they wheeled into the piazza a few nights ago.
Going short? Apparently you can't do that unless you've got a margin account, which I think stinks.
Look at the daily chart on AA...now that's a head and shoulders pattern.
ReplyDelete"As they say, watch my actions (not my opinions)."
ReplyDelete2nd - That's only possible b/c you post your trades. There are some who open their mouths but won't post their trades, and I think it's fair to consider that lying.
CLH - It's hard to dump UNH for a switch to CLH, even though I know the recent owners of CLH are just birds in flight. Gotta wait till most of them have taken flight.
ReplyDeleteOpening FAZ 12.16/TZA 5.93...
ReplyDeleteMomentum trade.
Oil is falling? What's up with that move?
ReplyDeletePAL- Looks like it will break S2 @ 7.30.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like 1,150 is now in range. I'm holding on to my SPY puts from yesterday.
ReplyDeleteES is moving in the opposite direction of cash (S&P) right now.
ReplyDeleteVXX breaking 22 looking at a 10 % morning
ReplyDeleteWhat we are witnessing here boys is a sea-change in mass-psychology.
ReplyDeleteHo'w that for hyphenatin'?
FAZ off @ 12.32/TZA off @ 5.97...
ReplyDeleteI would buy PAL in the low 4's:)
ReplyDeleteWonder who the fools are selling commodities, is there a better trade out there somewhere (U$D maybe?)?
ReplyDeleteAnd what the hell happened to NLY, it was trading for $14!!!!????
Yikes..Make that 10-12K.
ReplyDeleteES just broke S2.
Did S&P break it's neck when it fell through 1180?
ReplyDeleteMark- You're referring to sidestepping a 10-12k loss due to having closed out half your longs a few days ago?
ReplyDeletelong pal 4.24
ReplyDelete2nd- Yes. I closed about 1/2 on Friday and the other 1/2 yesterday. Only have UNG/CRYP left.
ReplyDeleteIdeally, we'll close below SPY 118.21, and
ReplyDelete(a) bounce after hours, or
(b) see a gap-up open
1175 seems to be the line. Could get a bounce here. Buy the dip? See if that level holds a retest. If not I think a -3% day. If market could get up past 1195. Might be Waterloo for the bears.
ReplyDeleteThe selling/volume in the natty guys is pretty light.
ReplyDeleteHEK back under $6, one could make some good money if he could get over the panic and had a decent timing mechanism.
ReplyDeleteI like Sharkie's PAL trade.
Mark I think me and you are the only one's that own shares. Oh and maybe David.
ReplyDeleteAnother way to look at it is there's something for just about everyone in this market.
ReplyDeleteSLW is about to fall off my chart.
ReplyDeleteRB- The more I think about it (shouldn't do that, I know) the more I like the play in natty.
ReplyDeleteBought a couple of $116 SPY Calls at $3.21 to hedge
ReplyDeleteI envy TK's bragging rights today. "Grow a pair" indeed...
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing I'll do a little shopping when I get back. Ciao :)
ReplyDeletePlaying the bounce...I exited all puts at 30 to 40% gains (woohoo! too bad it was only 5% of my port). Bought a few more $116 SPY Calls at $3.23.
ReplyDeletemeant to say exited all puts and short SPY that was 5% of port...I wish i had 5% of my port in puts!
ReplyDeleteCan Molybdenum be used as a catalyst to split the H2O bond?
ReplyDelete"Seeking to drive the cost of electrolysis down to more reasonable levels, the Berkeley Lab team devised a high-valence metal they're calling Mo-oxo for molybdenum-oxo (PY5Me2, for you chem. geeks out there). The catalyst requires no additional organic additives or solvents, can operate in neutral water (even if it's dirty) and works with sea water -- meaning we could literally be looking at oceans of cheap energy. Best of all: Mo-oxo is about 70 times cheaper than platinum."
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2010-05/cheap-metal-catalyst-can-split-hydrogen-gas-water-fraction-cost
SPY 118.21/ 'Wrong Once' newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4400 comments) on Tue, 05/04/2010 - 11:21 #62134
ReplyDeleteReminding those who follow Vad's comments:
(a) Close below 118.21.
(b) When playing with the trend, you will (generally) be 'right' many times, and 'wrong' once.
Of course, if one persists in playing the original trend once it signals a reversal, then it's possible to be 'wrong' more than once.
Maybe this explains all the recent interest in GMO?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100430154902.htm
"Our new proton reduction catalyst is based on a molybdenum-oxo metal complex that is about 70 times cheaper than platinum, today's most widely used metal catalyst for splitting the water molecule," said Hemamala Karunadasa, one of the co-discoverers of this complex. "In addition, our catalyst does not require organic additives, and can operate in neutral water, even if it is dirty, and can operate in sea water, the most abundant source of hydrogen on earth and a natural electrolyte. These qualities make our catalyst ideal for renewable energy and sustainable chemistry."
Karunadasa holds joint appointments with Berkeley Lab's Chemical Sciences Division and UC Berkeley's Chemistry Department. She is the lead author of a paper describing this work that appears in the April 29, 2010 issue of the journal Nature, titled "A molecular molybdenum-oxo catalyst for generating hydrogen from water." Co-authors of this paper were Christopher Chang and Jeffrey Long, who also hold joint appointments with Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley. Chang, in addition, is also an investigator with the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI)."
tof- I can see the 200dma approach requires great discipline. Currently prints at 10200.
ReplyDeleteindeed 2nd - i think we will touch it and possibly break it on this correction. i'm betting on a bounce to the 118.10 area before a resumption of a downtrend.
ReplyDelete200DMA, this is one observation I can put my faith in.
ReplyDeleteYou can bet we're not the only ones watching.
Talk about maximum frustration...how about a bounce here to above today's highs?
ReplyDeleteA green close really would be spectacular, even a green week would be nice. Let's see what happens...
ReplyDeleteThis would probably be a good opportunity for me to put my pants on and slip quietly out UNH's back door and head over to CLH's place.
ReplyDeleteOr maybe over to PAL's place???
Decisions, decisions...
Volume on spikes down has been lightening...selling could be abating. FD: I have a tiny SPY call position but otherwise I'm just watching.
ReplyDeleteFlyonthewall reports that a IMF spokesman says "no truth" to rumors on Spain
ReplyDeleteI'm out of PAL and out of here:)
ReplyDeleteSee you in September:)
Bold call, pal.
ReplyDeleteI have money riding on hearing from you before then ;)
mee too, shark. we're all crack fiends here.
ReplyDeletetof's speaking for himself. I like to think of myself as more the 7% solution type, injecting the purified form in the study while making astute observations about the market.
ReplyDeleteCmon 2nd...Of COURSE you will hear from me, do you think I can shut up until Spetember?
ReplyDeleteBesides I'd miss you guys.
I just think, for the record, the die is cast and even though we will have strong upmoves, no doubt, I think the trend has changed and the market will correct for a period of time. How long? I will ask the Fibbonacci-minded to weigh in. I will still watch the market but I plan on trading only very judicously.
Alright. Let me collect for hearing from you before September, and for bets riding on within 24 hours and within the hour. Should have covered the option for within 30 minutes also. ;)
ReplyDeletewell said. i'm the junkie on the street corner harrassing passers by.
ReplyDeleteSPY looks like an inverted head and shoulders on a daily chart...only have a few calls but otherwise an observer.
Maybe we should just buy GS and let them do our trading for us?
ReplyDeleteWonder what's keeping BP afloat, disbelief, a realization the max fine is $75M, or actual progress?
ReplyDeleteI am just catching up on today's comments.
ReplyDelete"Man this market is schizo."
TOF: the really schizo scenario would be a +2% rise tomorrow. I think the chances of that are pretty low, so I probably won't take any profits on the short side today (the lateral move into TZA at $5.61 yesterday is working out well so far, but TZA could easily run to $9-$10 if we get something like a January correction here).
"It looks like 1,150 is now in range. I'm holding on to my SPY puts from yesterday."
ReplyDeleteYou are amazing, TOF. Riding this unreal rally all the way to the top and then switching into a large short position right at the top. How much better can you get?
"2nd- Yes. I closed about 1/2 on Friday and the other 1/2 yesterday. Only have UNG/CRYP left."
ReplyDeleteHere is another great trader disguised as a builder. :) Jumping into the obvious madness and riding it up to the end of the madness. Congratulations, Mark.
Long SSO at $42.2. Looking for a bounce here.
ReplyDelete"Mark I think me and you are the only one's that own shares [of HEK]. Oh and maybe David."
ReplyDeleteThat's right. But my position is small enough (1250 shares) to forget about it and leave it there for a couple of years, until it finally doubles.
David - Thanks, but I have had some pit stops on the way in my "trading" account. I only wish I could have had the same performance as my long term account in all others...
ReplyDeleteUNG has turned green for the day. Nice to have such S&P hedge in my portfolio on a day like today. :))
ReplyDeleteYeah Mark made really nice exits.
ReplyDeleteTOF's timing really is uncanny.
UNG - Has become a safety play, large traders must believe it can't fall while the S&P is weak and when S&P sails they move back into S&P?
ReplyDeleteGuys, you need to stop jinxing me! We all go on runs.
ReplyDeleteBP - goes e-div tomorrow, maybe holding it up temporarily?
ReplyDeleteSeems like a nice short.
MON - Nice new low today.
ReplyDeleteI forgot to mention that UXG hit my sell limit order at $3.65 today for 500 shares and then promptly collapsed with the rest of the market. As I said before, UXG was NEVER able to withstand a correction in the broad market, and so I think I was given a God-given opportunity to reduce my position during this UXG rally, which coincided with the top in the broad market.
ReplyDeleteTOF - I'm rootin' for ya man!
ReplyDeleteout of my SPY calls and SSO at a small loss. Man this market is really weak. I was expecting a bounce.
ReplyDeleteCP: MON is a solid company with a 15% earnings growth under their new conservative long-term oriented strategy, and so a decline like that in the stock should be bought. I would be buying MON now for the long term if I had the money. Unfortunately, it is all tied up in NGas and my ultrashorts. But I hope to scale out with profit out of those positions, and I will be rotating money into MON.
ReplyDeleteShort SPY at $117.33
ReplyDeleteMON article, this may be part of the problem.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/04/business/energy-environment/04weed.html
courtesy CC poster
- 3% s +p here we come.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I like MON as well(aside from the fact I think they're anti-environment), my strategy is similar to yours so I don't mind watching it fall..
ReplyDeleteJJG - I kinda lost track of this one, maybe I should start watching it closer.
ReplyDeleteThe dip buyers are here! :)
ReplyDeleteThose poor souls, conditioned to buy every dip.
ReplyDeleteThe big guys are unloading right into their hands, and the market is moving south again...
ReplyDeletedavid - indeed. not sure why i didn't see a chase for 1,175 right before the close...gotta love daytrading!
ReplyDeletePavlov's dip buyers?
ReplyDeleteThank you for the article, T3D. MON is moving past Roundup now, and the problems people are experiencing with Roundup will only make the demand for its new products bigger. Don't forget also that US + Europe is going to become less and less important as a target market for MON relative to Asia and Latin/South America, where MANY more people want to eat at any cost.
ReplyDeleteHm... My crappy Canadian explorers have collapsed today and SLV took a big hit, and as a result the net change for today in all my 3 accounts is only +$300. If this sell-off continues, however, then the exponential compounding will kick in with my ultrashorts (while the absolute drop in my long positions will keep decreasing), so the net result should keep improving...
ReplyDeleteDavid, interesting it would not surprise me that MON had a good idea that resistance would become a problem while at the same time developing the next great seed/product that they can market as a solution and minimizing the impact of generic sales on its roundup product. Just call me skeptical.
ReplyDeleteGuys - I don't think it's coincidental that the peak of this rally was right where it fell from in 2008. I don't know if this is typically bearish or not, but that is major overhead resistance.
ReplyDeleteSP 500, in addition what TOF said we have so far failed at the 61.80% retracement, while I had expected that we would fail at the 50% level, I guess never under estimate the power of 0% interest rates and a wall of liquidity.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/M2MxYmVhZTEt
If anyone is interested in investing in China's yuan, CYB is a good way to do it. There are rumors they will allow the currency to appreciate in 2011.
ReplyDeleteNEW POST
ReplyDelete