Tuesday, May 4, 2010
5/5/10 Can't You See
I’m gonna buy me a ticket as far as I can,
I ain't never comin' back
Gonna ride me a south-bound,
All the way to Georgia now,
‘Til the train it run outta track
SPY closed at 117.52. That's good enough for me.
Odds now favor shorting/selling the rips.
Should the DJIA/SPX fall below the 200dma, I'll start shorting using longer time horizons. Plan to stay in day trading mode until then.
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CYB - Yep, kinda strange this one hasn't been on a roll but over the past couple years watching, I've become more familiar with how markets tend to switch direction at the drop of a hat, truly incredible!
ReplyDeleteI anticipate yuan appreciation would put downward pressure on Chinese equities.
David- I see the pendulum is starting to carry your positions higher. It's about time.
ReplyDeleteAs for God granting you a timely exit on UXG, it's also about time.
ITMN- I must be bored, not having done anything other than exiting AA/WATG this morning. I bought a minute (repeat, minute) quantity of ITMN stock at 9.24...
ReplyDelete2nd - I agree with your assessment. Its really nothing more than speculation to go short here, thinking that the market will test its 200 DMA. The fact is, until it gets below it we can't stay long term bearish.
ReplyDeleteThis brings me to another line of thinking I've been going through for a while. The whole 200 DMA thing works great with long term trending markets. The problem is when you have markets like the 70's. A long only / short only performance when the S&P is 3%+ above/below its 200 DMA gets hurt in markets like the 70s, which is what I think we're going to go through for the next 5 years.
Why? Well, tomorrow morning there's a chance cooler minds prevail, and/or a short squeeze (would that be the right term, under the circumstances) ensues.
ReplyDeletetof- Good point. We'll make adjustments in the strategy as we go. Not that we don't already make adjustments on a daily basis ;)
ReplyDeleteRe ITMN- Buying into an 80% drop also allows me to feel 'smarter' than anyone who bought and held for the past year ;)
ReplyDeleteThat feeling could dissipate by tomorrow morning.
If someone with LvII quotes could tell me the lowest 'print' on ITMN after hours, I'd appreciate.
ReplyDeleteI'll be back around 7 pm PST. Have a business meeting/dinner in SF.
Missed the close. I'm going to run around the after hours market dropping stink bids on everything. I'll catch up on the comments in a sec.
ReplyDeleteI'm considering putting a bid in on GOOG at $500.90.
ReplyDeleteCompany has $24 Billion in cash (or $80/share), generated $2.5 Billion in cash last quarter alone, is trading at 18.3 times earnings or 15.5 times ex-cash.
TOF- I'm showing a pretty big volume gap in GOOG here...all the way down to 460. If one believes in such things.
ReplyDeleteCould only find stinkers to play on SGEN/HEK...Hope someone comes home and panics!!!
Sharkies skate into Hockey Town USA tonight!!!!
ReplyDeleteT3D/David- Thanks for the nice comments. Personally, I feel I made my best trades ever on Fri/Mon. Taking profits has always been very hard for me.
ReplyDeleteNow, of course, is the trick of doing it over and over again for the next 30 years :)
ReplyDeleteIf you look at a chart of SPX from the recent peak to close today, it is in a perfect downward channel. Who knows how long that will last. Stops & Targets says short term bear but intermediate trend bull until 1163 is breached. Short term wont flip back to bull until 1194 or so is re-achieved.
ReplyDeleteSPY moving average analysis.
ReplyDeletePotential targets.
50SMA- Bounced right off it today
100EMA- 114 Bounced off it in DEC.
200EMA- 110 Bounced off it in FEB.
200SMA- 109 Bounced off it in JULY.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NzA5NDJkZ
ITMN AH low/8.33 high/11.75 close/10.60
ReplyDeleteMarko, your comments are about SPY, but your chart is US Steel or X.
ReplyDeleteSP500 Cash, the way I see it is that price has a good chance of going to the bottom of the channel on the chart posted around say 1150 to 1140 before first real bounce up.
ReplyDeleteTime will tell.
Someone at CC posted this classic song, great vid too.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tLTb4P1HD8
Correct SPY, sorry...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/ZmNmMTFjY2Yt
T3D- You flat right now?
ReplyDeleteSharkies....Do I dare dream? :)
ReplyDeleteJust a random thought since I'm alone. Take a look at the action in ANN/CHK (after the close)....They might go get them tomorrow, but keep an eye on them as a tell.
ReplyDeleteMark, long 3.3% of portfolio consisting of the three positions mentioned the other day. The charts do not support any of this and the mkt is trying to kill me with a 1000 small cuts.
ReplyDeleteThe mkt just moves really fast nowadays and the best money seems to be made by betting on the come. To me it sometimes feels like drinking from a fire hose in both directions.
Worst case scenario played out over months is
SP 940ish although a really smart person I know has projections to SP 460 (I do not think we will see that.
Again looking for first good bounce off 1140 to 1150 area. Be away from the mkt half a day tomorrow as wife needs my help with her doctors appt.
Mark, I would have not said anything about your chart but I wanted to let you know someone is looking.
ReplyDeleteAs everyone knows looking out into the future with the mkt needs to be taken with a grain of sand, anything can happen. I always thought the Greece problem is worst than what others here thought it just seems to matter when it does.
later
T3D- Thank you. GL tomorrow with your lovely bride. I hope it's simply to tell her everything is orchids.
ReplyDeleteSelling appears relatively contained in Asia at this time.
ReplyDeleteAs usual, the market will do what it wants, when it wants.
I have no take on tomorrow's open. Other than I'll be there to watch it.
Mark- Thanks for the extended-hours numbers on ITMN. It's headquarted in our backyard, in Brisbane. I probably drive by their building going north on 101 every morning.
ReplyDeleteI was scrolling through insider transactions, thinking how typical the recent sales at 40+/share were. Then I noticed a purchase of 2.1m shares at 14.10/share, with no indication of any subsequent sales. Unless there's a delay in the reporting of sales (which is undoubtedly the case), I would say one director got it wrong.
Good meeting tonight. I was offered a (part-time) teaching position in the evenings (among other things), which I had to turn down. Classes would end past my usual bedtime.
ReplyDelete2nd- Having met only a few times, you would make a fantastic teacher....Perhaps someday :)
ReplyDeletePAL is gonna break it's uptrend today.
ReplyDeleteGet ready for a big 'ol selloff this summer.
I'm going fishing.
See you in September:)
DOUBLE DIP BABY.....
ReplyDeleteDouble dip:)
I want LVS at a dollar Goddamnit!
I want C at 97 cents:)
Double dip baby.
palladium crashing like that milkaholic Lyndsay!
ReplyDelete(there's an interesting lawsuit over the above tagline, more or less)
I'm seeing 1,150 as the next logical stop...let's see if that holds.
ReplyDeleteGuys - I think we should be shorting BP. I have been reading a lot about this and I think this is far worse than people are making it out to be. The weather has been working in their favor for several days, preventing the oil from hitting land, but tomorrow or Friday the weather is supposed start working against them. This will cast more negative light on this issue.
ReplyDeleteI also read that the spill is a lot worse than the 5,000 barrels a day that is being estimated. I read reports that it is somewhere around 50,000 barrels a day. To give you a sense of how much that is, that is approximately the entire amount that was spilled in the Exxon Valdez disaster. And this is what is being leaked EVERY DAY.
I think this is something that could really cripple BP. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trading in the 30's soon.
Amazing how quickly 1150 has become a realistic target.
ReplyDeleteI opened up a June $50 put position in BP at about $2.60...I'm planning on putting a straddle on this position, but with it weighted to the put side.
ReplyDeleteJB- Can you find any news on SGEN? 10% seems a little silly.
ReplyDelete2nd - Isn't it? The market unravels so fast after stair stepping higher. Look at WATG...now below its gap up from a month ago despite a positive outlook. And at the price that the CEO bought a bunch of shares. I'm making my list of buy candidates and WATG is at the top of the list. Like you said, 10=11=12 when its at 100 five years from now.
ReplyDeleteUNG - Why isn't it up? Turnaround coming?
ReplyDeleteITMN- off @ 10.32
ReplyDeleteWATG- picked up a little @ 10.43
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing a lot of buying here.
ReplyDeletehey bro, re SGEN i don't see anything but it may be a move in sympathy with intermune...i'll dig around more
ReplyDeleteYea, with that rig spewing tons of oil out there in the gulf BP is screwed IMO, anyone buying BP here is a lunatic (and we know there are plenty of them around).
ReplyDeleteWish I'd been the guy who bought PAL @ 3.78...
ReplyDeleteI think the important thing to watch here is if the dip buyers this AM get punish. But the day trade so far was to buy.
ReplyDeleteOk, I layered into a straddle on BP...June $50 Calls and puts at $3.1 and $2.5 average.
ReplyDeleteOr GMO @ 3.79...
ReplyDeleteThanks JB. Could be, but we already would have had a 5% cushion.
ReplyDeleteAmazing for a Co. that big. The spike in RIG was due to coverage on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteThey were talking about this a year ago, is this where US market decoupling from global markets occurs?
ReplyDeleteJB- I wouldn't waste to much time. Panic, that's all.
ReplyDeleteI'll let it go, but there are about a thousand good Greek jokes running through my head :)
ReplyDeleteOh come on Mark, there's rioting and death in the streets of Athens and you're not willing to partake in jest?
ReplyDeleteYou'll be sorry!
Death? Well, that would certainly be better than working for 2 more years :)
ReplyDeleteSome traders got some great entries SO FAR today.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I'd have to say I'm ST bullish.
ReplyDeleteFF- You still with us??? What's up with LINE today?
ReplyDeleteAt least try mustering a little chuckle or giggle, you'll feel much better I promise. ;)
ReplyDeletemarket rallied up to 50 DMA and can't get through it...be careful with longs for now.
ReplyDeleteCP- Nice job holding onto GMO.
ReplyDeleteChicken - RE: spill > it's already estimated to be covering an area of at least 130 miles by 70 miles. If anyone thinks this will not get on shore, they're crazy, especially when the leak may be letting out up to 1 or 2 million gallons a day.
ReplyDeleteITMN @ 10.82...
ReplyDeleteAA/X/FCX trifecta green.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the dip buyers are back and the 50 DMA can be used as support for now.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Some folks think it's gonna see $7 by end of year, but my opinion is that's too conservative.
ReplyDeleteI'll admit to growing tired of babysitting my two positions, wanna be outside enjoying this beautiful weather.
TOF - I agree, the spewing oil into the gulf (which on this scale and conditions is practically an impoundment) a total pooch-screw! Unbelievable BP isn't being absolutely crushed as we speak (except maybe today is ex-div day?)!
ReplyDeleteThe punishment isn't complete, it's far from over...
Good luck guys. Hope to make the close.
ReplyDeleteWhat we have here is a combination of:
ReplyDelete(a) Nervous longs, and
(b) Nervous shorts
Busy beaver,
ReplyDeleteLong NWL 17.01
VZ 28.84
byd 17.01
Stopped out of my VXX at 22.81. Expensive ride to work left 1.50 on the table.
ReplyDeleteBob
tof- One perspective to take on the sell-off yesterday and this morning is to step back to Monday night. If someone had asked me if I would like an entry into WATG at 10.50, the reply would have been 'I wish.' Now that I have it, not sure it makes sense to wish even lower.
ReplyDeleteAs for ITMN, can you imagine the number of investors who wish they'd sold at 40+? The market is full of real-life nightmares. That has to be one of the worst I've seen.
ReplyDeleteTrading volume on ITMN is already at over 1/2 the 45m float.
ReplyDeleteLong line 25.40.
ReplyDeleteLast trade today.
Weak hands/capitulation into (hopefully) stronger hands.
ReplyDeleteBuy when there's blood in the streets and sellers are on Desolation Row.
ITMN should reconsider a buyout by GILD/Roche, ideas being tossed around back in March:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/company-news-story.aspx?storyid=201003101335dowjonesdjonline000543&title=update-intermune-soars-on-fda-panel-buyout-speculation
"Analyst Brian Abrahams from Oppenheimer & Co. names Gilead Sciences Inc. ( GILD) as an obvious fit for InterMune, because the larger HIV-focused company has made a push into respiratory disease and is developing Hepatitis C drugs, something that is in InterMune's pipeline.
He also mentioned Roche Holding AG (RHHBY, ROG.VX) as potentially interested in InterMune to add to its own respiratory business."
Sold my BP calls at $3.6 that I bought at $3.1. The puts have been stomped on though.
ReplyDeleteLook out below!
ReplyDeleteI imagine that the dollar will continue to strengthen against the Euro until either
A) They throw the Greeks out of the European Union (a good idea)
Or
B) the Euro goes bust, tanks, blows up, which will mark the high of the dollar and the right time to buy stocks. It should happen sometime this summer.
Short BP at $51.80. Stop at $52.20.
ReplyDeleteMy gut tells me that dip buyers right now are are dragging in people that are thinking they missed the opportunity. Ultimately, though, I think these people will lose on their dip buying.
ReplyDeleteI woke up, saw that a big market collapse did not happen but a modest move down did occur, and I decided to take some profits on the short side so as to be totally OK with the market moving back to old highs. I just moved 1/2 of my TZA position (1500 shares at $6.23) into TWM (400 at $18.90), reversing a lateral move from TWM (at $17.56) into TZA (at $5.61). Had I stayed in TWM, I would have made $536 on those 400 shares. The switch into TZA and back has brought me $930. So it's as if I have just booked a $400 profit on the short side. This is decent, considering that I have been trying to keep my position sizes *really* small (which is the only reason I survived while shorting the recent rally from its January lows up to the recent highs).
ReplyDeleteThe more I look at these pictures of the oil spill I can't see how the costs are going to be only $10 Billion, which is what people are estimating. We all know how people have underestimated catastrophes in the past I am 100% sure that the 5,000 barrel a day estimate is way underestimated. 5,000 barrels is equal to 210,000 gallons a day. There are estimates of up to 50,000 barrels a day. If that's true that is equal to the Exxon Valdez spill on a daily basis. This thing has been spewing for 2 weeks now and the flow is continuous.
ReplyDeleteI believe this will be a monumental disaster, causing damages far worse than the Katrina disaster. I think BP could be on the hook for damages that might just bring the company down. Think about this: the oil spread as of yesterday was at least 130 miles by 70 miles. Weather conditions have been favorable, but they are expected to get worse. This oil could destroy the entire gulf coast from Louisiana through Florida, crippling the importation of goods into the Mississippi, killing the seafood industry, and basically stopping vacationing to the coastline. I don't think people are properly accounting for this mess, even if they get one of the holes capped up over the weekend.
I think this will put a significant dent into the economy in the southeast and could cause our GDP growth to be lower.
My buy limit order for 1000 shares of ESLR was triggered at $1.10 this morning. I am glad that I showed some patience after wanting to buy it and waited for the price to come to me (rather than jumping in at $1.25 after their earnings announcement last week). Today's trade size was so small because I intend to hold it for a long time. I might sell these shares after ESLR rises above $1.50 for a decent $400 trading gain.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave: in what subject matter were you offered a teaching position?
ReplyDeleteI am going for a meeting at work now and will miss the rest of the day. I read only a part of the comments on this page so far, but already decided to follow teamonfuego into BP puts. Place a buy limit order for 2 June $50 puts at $2.05.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys- Will sit tight here. Everything is kinda rolling over and I suspect some more down side pressure if the dip buys get their fingers burned.
ReplyDeleteAll right, just to get over with it and forget about it, moved my limit to $2.08 and got it filled right away. Let's see how it turns out.
ReplyDeleteI see 2/3rds of the trifecta are now red.
ReplyDeleteYeah I'm not sanguine about the next couple of months in this market. GMO had a day though.
ReplyDeleteAny of you daytrade PAL or GMO today?
David- I would have been teaching in my chosen profession.
ReplyDeleteI still think of today as one to buy into, not sell into. But my time frame for this 'opinion' extends no longer than 24 hours.
2nd - take a look at CAAS...another China auto play. Yikes
ReplyDeleteJust checking in... Wo-Nelly, shiver me timbers! This kind of action doesn't exactly inspire confidence in economic recovery does it?
ReplyDeletePerhaps the market was looking for something more than Germany/Brussels was willing to deliver?
JB - By the way, this confirms Belgians don't really understand how sugar is supposed to be used (not in Beer, please).
BP/RIG/gang of five - The old snow-job still working for them?
ReplyDeleteITMN- off @ 10.99...
ReplyDeleteCAAS- fwiw, it has a P/E twice that of WATG. And has way outperformed WATG over a one-yr period.
ReplyDeleteITMN- Damn, it juked me out right before a spike higher...
ReplyDeleteOIH broke it's 200sma today. First time since July. I know how many times I looked back there and said, Fuck. I'd like to see some confirmation.
ReplyDeletetof- Alright, I'm out of WATG @ 10.33...can't deny the bearish action.
ReplyDeleteI'm tempted to play the earnings release tomorrow, but discipline requires I not give in.
I'm up only about 500 for the day, but under the circumstances, I consider that good.
ReplyDeleteAll of it was made on a capitulation bounce play in ITMN.
JB- What's your take going into the close.
ReplyDelete2nd- Nice daily return.
ITMN- the fact that trading volume approaches the entire float, a bounce from -80% to -75% cannot be construed as bullish.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to sit in 100% cash overnight, and allow the market to tell me where to go tomorrow.
2nd - what a great trade on ITMN. man that too ballz.
ReplyDeleteRE: WATG - I completely forgot that they have earnings tomorrow. I have a bunch of cash ready to be deployed should it sell off. I doubt it will. I should probably be buying a little now actually.
err...took ballz.
ReplyDeleteClosed out my BP short at $51...added a June $50 Call at $3.3 to partially offset June $50 Puts.
ReplyDeleteTodays Quote:
ReplyDelete"Money's only important when you don't have any." —Sting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn9a4BO2YOE
Hey Guys, missed the close (I'm still in trouble with those darn Germans CP!), excellent trade 2nd, I've been toying with changing my overall allocation, again, but decided, again, to stand pat.
ReplyDeleteI've got the boss' blessing to spend Sunday afternoon running my equity selection screens so hopefully I'll be able to come up with a couple more cryp's and sgen's - think it's best for me to focus on individual issues as opposed to trying figure out the overall markets direction.
shark, these are some strong statements. really or imagine???? I respect your opinion please confirmt
ReplyDeletevb
Look out below!
I imagine that the dollar will continue to strengthen against the Euro until either
A) They throw the Greeks out of the European Union (a good idea)
Or
B) the Euro goes bust, tanks, blows up, which will mark the high of the dollar and the right time to buy stocks. It should happen sometime this summer.