Wednesday, May 5, 2010
5/6/10 Groaning The Blues
Man I have to admit to enjoying the sell-off from the vantage point of someone who has not been fully invested for almost a year. Just hope I can find a way to profit on the short side, now that the reversal is here. We homo sapiens are a funny species. We had no problem attempting shorts all the way up. Now that we're on the way down, our inclination is to look for longs. We fight ourselves all the way. Oh, sorry. I should have said 'I.'
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2nd,
ReplyDeletewhen you want to go short, i normally want to go long.
we are always opposite (opposites attract)
trend reversal??????
JB- Re- picking individual positions. Agreed. I think stock picking will produce a premium for the next few months.
ReplyDeletevb- When we start the hedge fund, I'll restrict my input to making proclamations. I'll leave the trading to you, which will allow us to actually make money ;)
ReplyDelete2nd- Remember, you promised I could get the coffee.
ReplyDeleteAll right. I'm still happy with my play. I've looked at tons of charts and have seen just as many technical bounces or supports. This seems to be a very pivotal area. Toss up.
ReplyDeleteillini- Looks like we're right at the area you were talking about yesterday. Thoughts??
ReplyDeleteMark- You have the green light to be in charge of the Coffee Run (or, if you wish, to be House Barrista). Do not underestimate the importance of the position.
ReplyDeleteI may have to assume the vaulted role of janitor myself. I doubt there are many firms out there who meet (better yet, exceed) my standards.
Nikkei playing catch up.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone considered the possibility that the indexes sell off the same way they rallied? Without looking back?
ReplyDeleteShanghai certainly seems to have sold off without so much as a look back over its shoulder.
ReplyDelete2nd - Anything is possible. I think we're almost at the point where people are going to ignore the good news out of the U.S. and consider it yesterday's news.
ReplyDeleteI'm still staying on the sidelines for now but I'm making up my buy list.
2nd- Sell off like before? Don't think so. Redemptions and margin calls fueled that fire. I'll never forget the month long EOD massive sell offs.
ReplyDeleteThanks for holding my spot at the hedge fund :) Got a little nervous there if the chairs were being rearranged.
Damn..I remember being up 3-4K, then when I left for work and getting back down 3-4K.
ReplyDeleteRough #'s...The pull back in July was 8%. Feb. was 7%. Now? What 5%?
If this market doesn't turn around soon, I'm going to cash and wait it out.
ReplyDeleteI'm not crying wolf, just thinking about self-preservation.
DNDN - I think this one might still be in play, anybody think it might double to $100?
ReplyDeleteI know, I know, nobody's interested...
Ritholtz:
ReplyDelete"In light of this morning’s commentary, a few emailers asked me were we stood after today’s action.
The short answer: We are now all cash, no longs, looking for shorts.
I will post an update when we make a serious change in our tilt."
We look to open flat.
ReplyDeleteTrust me when I say, Amigos, this market will correct into the mid-summer at least.
ReplyDeleteAnd btw...where ON EARTH do they keep finding, almost 30 months into this depression which they persist in calling a recession (which they are now claiming has already ended, it's positively fucking ORWELLIAN), but from where do they find half a million workers to fire each month?
These jobless #'s are a lot more troubling than the Wall Street schmucks have been taught to lie that they are:)
My fondest wish......that on 911 the planes had been loaded with sell-side analysts and frigging QUANTS (who oughtta become one with the architecture, for real:)
Futures dropping German eyeballs popping...
ReplyDeleteA trillion in debt is owed by the dark skinned peoples of Europe.....which they have no frigging hope of ever repaying.
You can't even kill them and steal their money this time Colonel Klink:) Bummer:)
It's a good thing that Nazi-type talk has been outlawed in Germany, since I'm sure there would be quite a bit of it lately:)
Greece and Spain and Ireland are gonna sink the euro, which will send the dollar on one of Bill's "moonshots" (kudos to Bill for being awake lately) and of course U.S. stocks will decline.
I guess under that scenario cash is, if not king, at least a cross-dressing craigslist-surfing suvivor, of sorts. Which I suppose could also describe Chicken:):):):)
ReplyDeleteJUST KIDDING CP, seeing if you're awake.
I like Yamana long here.
ReplyDeletePAL breaking up out of it's 10 min opening range.
ReplyDeleteMaterial trifecta doing very well.
ReplyDeleteNice beat for TIE.
ReplyDeleteI sold my BP Puts at $2.18 for a small loss. I closed out my BP Calls at $3.5 for a small gain.
ReplyDeleteI decided to buy a couple of puts on RIG...June $70 Puts at $3.8. After looking at them more, they have a pretty bad balance sheet and in theory they are just as liable as BP for this mess. They are far less capable of paying huge fees without significant damage to their business.
Outside of a small short position on RIG, I'm sitting on my hands for now. I want to sit and watch the banking crisis in Europe unfold.
ReplyDeleteITMN, man...
ReplyDeleteLooks like the next solid support for WATG is 8.50 ish.
ReplyDeleteBought 1 more June $70 put on RIG at $3.2...average at $3.5
ReplyDelete"Crossed-dressing Craigs-list surfing survivor" - Not quite sure what that is, an imagination is a terrible thing to waste though!
ReplyDeleteToo funny! ;)
TCK - Bounced off lower support line yesterday.
BAC having some trouble. Back under 17??
ReplyDeleteOk, I couldn't help myself. Bought a little WATG at $9.82 and $9.83.
ReplyDelete1,150 is coming...
ReplyDeleteCan SPY give us a close better than $116.82?
ReplyDeleteBought some more WATG at $9.97
ReplyDeleteIt all started with that big long black candlestick, every single long candlestick like that has begun a selling wave.
ReplyDeleteITMN @ 12.26...
ReplyDeleteStink bombs in for FTWR/SD/CHK/WATG....good luck guys :)
ReplyDeleteYou know, I'm kind of in buying mood here...
ReplyDeleteAs in overall market...
ReplyDeleteGMO - "Earnings" report, no ground-breaking info which perhaps has disappointed some but upbeat in general:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.generalmoly.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=71:050610-general-moly-announces-first-quarter-results&catid=1:news-releases&Itemid=49
I'm looking for a close better than $4.01 as proof of support.
vb- What's smarTrends saying?
ReplyDeleteclosed RIG puts at $4 that I bought at $3.5
ReplyDeleteAdded some more WATG at $9.5. Keep in mind they beat estimates and raised guidance.
ReplyDeleteNow have a full position in WATG at $9.68 average. Stock is trading at 9 times this years earnings and earnings should grow 25%+ for the next several years as the China auto market continues to grow. They also have about 1/4 of their market cap in cash after backing out debt.
ReplyDeleteIn addition to long term growth trends for the China auto market, additional auto markers are looking to the China auto parts makers to reduce costs:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=aQQoia5U0XSk
Just got back from the driving range.
ReplyDeleteI was hitting the bejabbers out of my Taylormade R9 3 wood TP, which I haven't been hitting well on the course and I don't know why....I was hitting it like tiger about 85 times this morning (the golf balls:)...get your mind out of the gutter:)
So far this year, I've been beaten by a 15 year old girl, as well as a 75 year old guy with a pacemaker and a knee replacement. I KNOW I can score better than that:)
WATG - Yea, that p/e is way overbought, huh? I'm looking to buy buggy whips, myself!
ReplyDeleteSharkie - You've got to pick your battles more carefully in the future, LOL!
ReplyDeleteHey Chicken!
ReplyDeleteHow ya feeling today?
Shark it is all about the short game. I lost to a 65 year old lady. She played from the whites and only hit 200 yards max. Straight. While she got up and down(mind out of gutter)I was three putting. Humiliating if you really think about it.
ReplyDeleteGold's ripping man.
ReplyDeleteDoin' great Sharkie, tkx for askin'. A little concerned though on where we're headed from here.
ReplyDeleteGMO volume is strong and it's rare for the price to fall under those conditions.
I'd really like to see my port close in the green again today...?.?.?
YHOO right at the 200, will she fail?
ReplyDeleteWFR is pretty beat up as well, does anyone know the story (too much competition, lack of demand/soured solar investment)?
When silicon demand is down it's usually due to lack of semiconductor production but nowdays we've got tree huggers wanting panels for their roofs unwilling to buy?
A switch to electric cars and wind generation probably won't happen either and so goes the price of copper kicked to the curb.
I'm tellin' ya, buggy whips is where it's at!!!
Just like yesterday: I woke up, saw that S&P is down for a third day in a row and that 1150 support seems to have held so far today, and I decided to complete my lateral move from TZA (1500 shares at $6.58) back into TWM (400 shares at $19.60), reversing the move I made two weeks ago from TWM (at $18.02) into TZA (at $5.86).
ReplyDeleteHad I stayed in TWM, I would have made $632 on those 400 shares. The switch into TZA and back has earned me $1080. So it's as if I have just booked a $450 profit on the short side. More importantly, I am out of 3X ultrashorts now and back to having only 2X ultrashorts, and TWM will erode less than TZA if the market stages a strong 2-day rebound and then continues south afterwards. A 3X ultrashort position can be kept for a week in a strongly overbought market that is ready to decline. A 2X ultrashort position can be kept for many weeks (but not months) without worrying much about its decay.
Actually, all of a sudden I'm gettin' my bloomers in a twist here...
ReplyDeleteMy next profit targets are automatic sell limit orders for SKF at $20, $21, etc.
ReplyDeletei'm thinking we bounce into the close. internals are EXTREMELY weak.
ReplyDeleteI just sold 1 July $60 put on MON for $4 (so as to add to my long-term MON position at $56). Even though this market is going down, I don't think MON has much downside left from here as it has already gone through its own bear market, and so I would rather park my money in MON and avoid the temptation to buy something else, which can decline much more than MON.
ReplyDeleteThe NGas lottery didn't work out today again. HNUZF is approaching the buy limit order I have on it for 500 shares at $4.50.
ReplyDeleteWell CP you know my thoughts on that matter.
ReplyDeleteTime to go fishing guys:)
I am getting some "service errors" when posting comments. I'll repeat the comment that has evaporated because of that.
ReplyDeleteThe NGas lottery didn't work out today again. HNUZF is approaching the buy limit order I have on it at $4.50. Interestingly, the front month futures are at $3.89 now, still above the key $3.82 Fibonacci retracement level. HNUZF was $5.15 when the futures first dropped to the current level a couple of months ago. Now it is at $4.70 -- value erosion at work.
Wow, just when I thought the selloff was over.
ReplyDeleteThis is no better than being eaten by mosquitoes and gnats, that's for sure.
ReplyDeleteWOW...WATG now down 25% in 3 days.
ReplyDeleteNANO - Nobody likes it on earnings eve.
ReplyDeleteHuge order went through on WATG...50k at $9.10
ReplyDeleteWow...I might have to step in with my long term trading account at the close here...
Ok, if the S&P remains down here at the close I'm going to be moving at least 33% of my LT trading account into it.
ReplyDeleteWow, the market just fell off a cliff. The buy to cover limit at $17.65 was just hit for 250 shares of XHB I shorted at $18.65 a few weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteMADNESSSSS!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI wasn't going to post this a while ago, but the trader who wrote the piece I posted had a retracement level to 1130.
ReplyDeleteSKF has also hit my sell limit order at $20 for 100 shares I bought at $18.18 last week. The account with my ultrashorts, S&P puts, GLD and UNG is already up by 7.5% today *despite* UNG having a bad down day.
ReplyDeleteMark - wonder if the trader with that retracement level is buying. I'm stepping in here with my LT account. Will be putting 50% of my account into the SPY at the close if it remains in the 1130 level.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm trying to find out.
ReplyDeleteWATG, GMO are getting crushed. I didn't want to rain on your parade, guys, when you were talking about great future prospects for these stocks. And that may still be the case. But the time to enter long-term investments is when the broad market is oversold, and it is only now getting there.
ReplyDeleteWATG - Looking less and less risky by the second....
ReplyDeleteOnce again, shoulda listened to sharkie I must say, now looking for a move into really beaten up stuff and WATG don't look too bad but I've gotta be patient and make logical decisions based upon something other than knee-jerk reactions.
UNG is doing its reverse S&P thing again and starts rising as the sell-off is picking up. :)
ReplyDeleteThe account with ultrashorts is up 9% already.
The lateral move I made from SLV into GLD in that account when the shit started hitting the fan is working out better than planned. I thought that both GLD and SLV will decline, but GLD will decline less. I could not imagine that SLV will decline but GLD will actually grow!
David - You can rain on my parade anytime and yes, the fine print at the bottom of the page does mention there's risk involved...
ReplyDeleteWe had plenty of warning, can't claim otherwise.
Damn...I've thought about stepping in here but every time I go back to a position, it is down even more. Crazy...
ReplyDeleteMan! Talk about panic! That's what Hussman meant when he said that after the market gets overbought, overvalued, overbullish and faces increasing yield pressures, WEEKS of gains will be erased in a few days. I am glad that we had a January rehearsal, after which I actually started believing Hussman and refused to close my short/ultrashort position until that sell-off finally came.
ReplyDeleteThe account with ultrashorts is already up 11.5% for the day. In 3 days I have recouped ALL the losses in that account since January.
Wow, look at NANO!
ReplyDeleteLet's be serious for a moment. We have to buy the close, no?
ReplyDeleteSKF has just hit another one of my sell limit orders at $21 for 100 shares I purchased a few weeks ago at $19.6.
ReplyDeleteHoly shit. 1100 failed.
ReplyDeleteHolly molly! The account with ultrashorts is up 15% today.
ReplyDeleteMark, I think this panic will reverse well before the close. I just don't know when.
I decided to sell a little more of my SKF into this panic, but the order is not going through...
ReplyDeleteInstant return to depression! But this time gold fly's... Wonder if that's gonna last???
ReplyDeleteCan't trade, broker is overwhelmed with internet traffic.
ReplyDeleteDuring the spike down TWM hit a sell limit orders at $20.50 for 100 shares I purchased at $19.50 and $21.70 for 200 shares I purchased around $20.30.
ReplyDeletedude wtf just happened? and why didn't i wait to buy until later in the day?
ReplyDeleteMan, at one point NANO was down 33%!
ReplyDelete"wtf just happened?"
ReplyDeleteGood question, wonder if we'll ever get and answer on that? Kinda seems like the big boys just ran everyone's stops, don't it?
I couldn't trade that.
ReplyDeleteNow that I have released some cash from the bondage of my ultrashorts, I can start picking up some longs in the rubble. Opened a small starter position in WATG: 250 shares at $9.01.
ReplyDeletewow, there's always a silver lining - now i'm certainly on the the "work 'til I die" retirement plan.
ReplyDeleteThis is the most fascinating day I have ever witness in my life trading the markets.
ReplyDeleteAt one point my accounts showed a loss of 30% and I don't have that much in the market!
ReplyDeleteThat ought to get those stubborn sheep moving in the right direction toward the sheering shed...
ReplyDeleteS&P back to 1130.
ReplyDelete"I couldn't trade that" You win the understatement of the day award!
ReplyDeleteDid anyone text vb and tell her of the fire sale?
I have no clue how we can be down 900+ points, then ramp right back up to down only 400....WTF?
ReplyDeleteTOF- By FAR...what will we learn from this???
ReplyDeleteJB- I'm pretty sure I would have puked. Can't wait for the Sharks game tonight :)
ReplyDeleteHEK printed a 5.
ReplyDeleteBet the Treasury back-stopped the market like in 87
ReplyDeleteThe automatic sell limit orders I had in place for TWM came pretty useful on a day like this -- THAT'S how you trade a 1000 point spike down in the Dow. :)
ReplyDeleteV printed a 75. AAPL 199.
ReplyDeleteES printed a 1060.
ReplyDeleteGod...why do I really want a beer...
ReplyDeleteRIG long
ReplyDeleteTold ya so....
ReplyDeleteWhy would J6P EVER get back in this?
ReplyDeletehey bro - watching gibbs wants to make me puke...what a f'ing rat faced punk
ReplyDeleteWho has a broker that is working. I still get nothing.
ReplyDeleteRB- Schwab is fine.
ReplyDeleteWe're rolling over pretty hard here.
ReplyDeleteWho the hell is gibbs? :)
ReplyDeleteWonder if it was a cyber attack somehow?? NYSE is saying the prices on the exchange never got as low as what some are reporting...
ReplyDeleteMine's working again, was down for 5 min maybe.
ReplyDeleteI just noticed that ESLR hit a buy limit order I had for it at $1.01 for 1000 shares. Will stop here with ESLR and will now wait for a couple of years until they ramp up their operations in China and establish a strong cashflow. By then, the stock MUST be higher than it is now.
ReplyDeletei'm on my 2nd 6 pak....
ReplyDeletewhat about this - leak on a HORRIBLE payroll #?
Long PAL 3.93
ReplyDeletesure looks like a huge computer error, or an electronic terrorist attack....
ReplyDeleteCOCKTAILS!
Back on broker all stops worked as designed. I was worried they would trigger stops then sell the stocks $2.00 lower only to have it rebound back 2 dollars. Did this happen to anyone? Also on my Qid position There was some print on google for 5.00. I was worried that might trigger a stop. Must be a mistake. Looking to buy some VZ. nice discount here. 6.8% yeild
ReplyDeleteBob
"leak on a horrible payroll#?"
ReplyDeleteMore like stop running ahead of "better than expected" payroll #'s.
HK printed a 14.
ReplyDeleteJust a little 650 pt rally folks!
ReplyDeleteHuman Error pushed a "B" for Billion instead of a "M" for Million.
ReplyDeleteNow isn't that a nice lie to float as the FED came in and bought the market to stabilize it and blame a fat finger.
As usual I'm skeptical.
"More like stop running ahead of "better than expected" payroll #'s."
ReplyDeleteMy thought exactly. This looks like a crooked move. Why do we trust these fuckers. Might as well play slots.
bob
Also there are two keys between a B and M, usually when I screw up its just one key off.
ReplyDeleteWe will never really know!
don't forget all the margin calls that are happening right now....if we ramp a bit more to the close I'll buy my 4 fav 3x inverse etf's...could have some serious AH/early market tomorrow selling
ReplyDelete3x"s etf's, be my quest.
ReplyDeleteWe were just 3 points away from triggering the 30 minute automatic market halt!
ReplyDeleteCan't tell me this wasn't planned well in advance without offering some other better explanation.
Mark - Gibbs is the prez's press secty
ReplyDeletemoving 1/3 of my LT trading account into the SPY at close.
ReplyDeleteFTWR @ 4.81
ReplyDeleteTwo take aways, down is always faster than up and the market can do anything it wants.
ReplyDeleteTime for the treadmill.
Closed almost flat, truly remarkable, what a ride.
Anybody still think Greece does not matter?
600M SPY traded. Without looking back, the most I remember is about 400M.
ReplyDeleteT3D - So your belief is the FED reached in their pockets and intervened?
ReplyDeleteI'm willing to accept that theory even though it doesn't do much to explain how so many all decided simultaneously to hit their sell buttons.
I wonder if you believe GS is doing God's work?
Honestly, you probably think I'm criticizing you as you usually assume but it's rarely the case unless I detect I'm being insulted first "You want it handed to you on a plate, I don't play that way"
Just what kind of bullshit talk is that anyway? So yea, I'm about 2 microns away from placing you on my permanent shit list, all I need is your clear confirmation and it's a done deal.
An offer you're not likely to refuse if I'm right!
Who was it that claimed Greece doesn't matter, me? It's a challenge to sort out the vague conversation here with the continuous hit and run comments.
ReplyDeleteThe account with ultrashorts ended the day up 10%. It was up 22% at some point, but I couldn't book any profits at that point as the electronic orders were not going through.
ReplyDeleteDude, your a monitor here why don't you just put a ignore button here and put me on it.
ReplyDeleteThat would be like me holding a grudge for being called a fluffer, but I was over it in about 5 minutes.
In lieu of an ignore button, please just skip my posts. Now the treadmill.
I tell ya...nothing quite like raising cash specifically to take advantage of a day like this, buying in on a few different securities and seeing the total account down about 7%.
ReplyDeleteWait, I've got a better idea! Fuck this shit, too many turds love to come in this chat room and crap all over us and tell us we're stupid.
ReplyDeleteI'm gone, good luck fellas!
actually, it ain't that bad..."only" about 5% down.
ReplyDeleteWell..according to Scwhab, my FTWR order was in "error". No fill, even though it showed as filled.
ReplyDeleteBoy , it must have been a bad day....let's lighten up guys. I made some, I lost some, but I crapped my diaper watching the DJIA drop nearly 1000 pts!
ReplyDeleteWhat a day. I would have done a lot better had Scottrade actually executed my trades when we were down like 990 or so.....that pissed me off a bit. I missed LINE at 12.60? F Greece, THAT pisses me off! Do you know how much I could have made today on just a couple of those trades??? I'm gonna have a straight shot of nice sipping rum and relax.
I hope you all do the same. Try counting to ten or twenty and some deep breathing. LOL!
CP- I hope you reconsider, my friend. I actually have said that some smart people I know don't think Greece in and of it's self is a big deal in the long run and T3D's comment doesn't bother me at all. I hope you can take it a face value. I'd certainly miss your input.
ReplyDeleteOK...got to run.
ReplyDeleteFF- please clean yourself before I return :)
well, i dropped more than a little today, all i can say is OUCH!
ReplyDeleteT3D,
ReplyDeleteAnd if it means anything to you, and right along the same lines, I had forgotten whom I had called a fluffer maybe ten minutes after it happened. I was actually thinking it had been Farfetched until you just reminded me:)
Sorry about that btw.
Chicken, Come back to us:)
PAL made a really compelling looking "tweezerish" bottom the past 2 days.
ReplyDeleteIn case anyone is wondering, I caught every millisecond of the sell-off. Got ready to move the buy-and-hold half to all-in, only to see the indexes recover >half their losses by the close.
ReplyDeleteGiven my skepticism about the 'reflex bounce,' I'm staying in cash. I don't think a retest of today's lows is out of the question. And probably not insignificant odds (5%, maybe?) of a 1987 redux.
fwiw, my wife closed out her positions also. We took a -1.36% hit on our combined portfolios. I have no problem with that. We'll await further developments from the sidelines.
Wow.....Talk about honesty. The NYSE CEO was on CNBC and said he thought tomorrow would be ugly.
ReplyDeletetimmy and the cats at SOH are beside themselves with glee....glad someone rocked today.........now where did i put that Demerol and my handgun?
ReplyDeleteMark - won't they cancel all those trades. not sure what the rules are other than it takes 3 days to settle.
ReplyDeletebet nobody gets ACN at .01
My knee is too sore to walk, so I stopped.
ReplyDeleteI have just one more thing to say about what just transpired and I'm going to be done with it. I'm also aware that this kind of stuff makes blogging a drag for all posters alike.
That said CP, that comment was not directed at you. TOF was the most outspoken poster here voicing that view. I do not do it to criticize anyone, but I do it in the spirit of debate and trying to get others to see the other side. Many people here have done that which I think helps us all. Personally, I want to know both sides and I'm willing to debate and be disagreed with. If I wanted one think mentality I know where to go. It is not personal but you interpret things I say that way.
That's all I have to say about this.
I love that everyone here expresses themselves freely...hopefully there aren't any ruffled feathers, esp on a day like today - I think I lost about 3yrs of retirement this afternoon and I know that my feelings are a tad raw...and tomorrow we can get back to sharing our thoughts.
ReplyDelete"TOF was the most outspoken poster here voicing that view. "
ReplyDeleteI don't recall saying we are decoupled or that Greece doesn't mean anything. In fact, I said it was time to sell on Monday because of this very reason...that people thought we were decoupled from the rest of the world, which is ludicrous. However, after an almost 10% sell off, I'm interested again.
..got a call 2 min before the close about the 1000 pt drop but it was too late for me to make any changes. yes, a big bite out of my account - boy, i am glad I didn't see my account when it was 1000 down. woweee
ReplyDeleteI dunno about buying this dip.
Hey TOF, Below are two comments you posted with respect to Greece, please re-read. The second one I clearly interpreted as "Greece does not matter."
ReplyDeleteI must have mis-interpreted the statement, my bad.
teamonfuego said...
hey guys - that was some bearish action yesterday huh!? like shark, i was out playing golf and let me long positions in WATG, REDF, and TRMA run....surprisingly my accounts didn't really do much. i almost bought some puts on SPY but figured i was going to play some golf and didn't want that exposure without watching. oh well.
a resolution to the european crisis will come shortly so i would have to expect a bounce. i would probably take that as an opportunity to get out of long positions. i think we may seen 1,150 at some point soon.
May 1, 2010 7:23 AM
teamonfuego said...
Just as I suspected...sounds like Greece/Europe will be bailed out quite soon. They tried to stall to see how it would pan out. Now everyone is scared of Lehman part deux. I have doubted this from the onset, thinking its just an aftershock of the crisis and not the precursor to another one. I'd expect a bailout package imminently...just one of the many reasons I dipped a big toe back into the market in my long only account yesterday:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/29/world/europe/29germany.html
April 28, 2010 7:08 PM
I would have to say that my comment today is directly related to your 28 APR 10 post.
T3d > I'm sorry if I rubbed you the wrong way but nothing in these posts was really wrong was it? The second comment on 4/28 was made and I made money on that trade. After thinking about this over the weekend I clearly said on Monday that I was stepping aside because I feared downside risks. I said if we see any bounces it was a time to exit longs. I didn't have a downside target but at down 9 to 10%, I'm interested again. So I moved 1/3 of my account into the SPY at the close and will continue to do so for the next 7 to 10%.
ReplyDeleteMy opinion still stands that the problems in Europe will be seen as an aftershock and not the start of a new crisis like the one we went through.
A bigger issue is why you're so peeved at people that counter your view. That and the fact that you spent probably a bunch of time trying to sift through my prior posts...isn't this a stream of consciousness thing?
And on that note...I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that someone was buying a ton of June 40 calls on the VIX. Well, those people either knew something or they had a lot of foresight. Either way, those people probably closed their positions.
ReplyDeleteI know a lot of people have different views than I do in terms of the markets but I have to think that this is the beginning of an opportunity to get into the markets for a trade at least. You have to imagine that on a day like this a lot of shorts hit their targets and people got stopped out. Just look at the volume and the huge price spike down.
Mark, thats Landry's 'three babies with a poopy diaper pattern', with me being one of the babies.
ReplyDeleteLuckily I was stopped out of almost all of my long positions yesterday/early today, except I added UNG and CHSCP didn't give up much to worry about, as usual. I was 6 pennies behind you on FTWR, but if Scottrade was clearing trades fast enough I'd have had it for less....but with this kind of action you hit market orders if spreads are decent or you miss the boat entirely. The only problem is I was held in suspense for a few minutes until it executed.
Phew...got to get out if this diaper....
TOF, your calls are great and you do not rub me the wrong way. I also understand that you are more of a pure trader, at least in your actions as you trade in and out and change your position and views, exactly what traders do.
ReplyDeleteHowever, you said "Now everyone is scared of Lehman part deux. I have doubted this from the onset, thinking its just an aftershock of the crisis and not the precursor to another one."
I do not know how a rational person does not view that as Greece does not matter. The credit markets are basically locked up now just like Lehman time frame of what 08, that's the problem. If you think it is not, okay, that's what makes a market.
Personally, I pulled your posts for reference to my statement.
I going to be posting a lot less, as it is just not worth the effort. This will make some people happy, that's fine with me.
T3D, best of luck to all.
Tof, I posted a response, seems to be lost in the ether, not going to re-type.
ReplyDeleteGood Luck to all. T3D
Guys, does it really matter who said what about Greece and US decoupling from it? We all have the right to express any opinions about the economy and the market. Personal attacks, however, really bring down the level of this blog. Please don't escalate such attacks and simply ignore when someone rubs you the wrong way.
ReplyDeleteT3D - I guess it's the level of importance that I differ with other people on. People are expecting this climactic crash like in 08. I just don't see it. There is significantly more cash and less leverage in the market participants (i.e., companies and investors) than back then. Can the markets drop 20% on issues in Europe? Absolutely. The risk from that is one of the reasons why I stepped aside. But I don't see much more downside than a 15 to 20% drop. I can be wrong, for sure. I mean, I bought WATG way too high today, thinking a 20% drop was enough. So I'm only human and can make mistakes.
ReplyDeleteI agree. I t reminds me of Kara Kommunity.
ReplyDeleteYou lost money, or your dog ran away, or whatever, get over it. Our communication is too important to get bogged down by personal vitriol, even if I do say.....:)
VB hey there lady:) I'm pulling for you. Figuratively:)
Hey Mark, I heard Robear's dog was hiding under the bed when he realized UNG had hit 6.75. He told Robear there is no way I'm letting that guy lick my nose even if he cried the whole flight.
ReplyDeleteLet the conspiracy theory begin. This day was simply a free pass day so the Smart(crooked) money could reposition themselves. How convinent that no one had brokerage account access. A cyber attack? Yes GS and friends. This was not a free market. I just don't know if they are going to gun it up or down. You have a large kangaroo rat tail. From that fantasy five minutes. If I had to bet the direction will be up after a sell off in the morning. of coarse I may not have brokerage access so i will have to watch.
ReplyDeleteGuys I was out driving around smoking a joint looking at Dogwood trees and Tulip beds.
ReplyDeleteCould you guys please share your stories of lack of market access?
I remember having the same thing happen back during the scare of 07.
There was this guy named Fischer on real money, 35 years experience in the pits, you should make an effort to here what he had to say about market structure.
ReplyDelete2nd / anyone else in WATG - did you listen to the call? Some pretty interesting things in there to hear. Apparently they didn't focus their sales on the vehicles that were the focus of the stimulus package in China, so they don't expect a drop off in sales. That makes sense since their sales growth was pretty much steady at around 40% annually between 2007 and now (or pre-stimulus and post-stimulus). Also, apparently international sales grew over 150% year on year and the sales to the US market grew 6-fold. They expect international sales to grow to 15% of total sales shortly (it was about 11 or 12% this quarter).
ReplyDeleteeveryone needs to chill out with the shark man!
ReplyDeletechickidee, please fly home!
Ooo la la
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrO4YZeyl0I&feature=related
pass that bogart
Hey!! How 'bout everyone come over here and watch the Sharks game. Drinks/food on me. Place orders for spliff through SHARKSJOINT.COM :)
ReplyDeleteI spent the morning listening to the RIG conference call.
ReplyDeletecurrent estimate of expenses for DWH explosion $200 mil, subject to change
have insurance coverage of $560 mil of which $481 mil has been paid
well was cased and cemented, do not know what caused catastrophic failure
cost associated with problem to start with 2Q
there indemnity is very broad, costs are BP responsibility per contract
mark, ... wish we lived closer, I'd be there in a ny second !!!!!!!
ReplyDeletedamn .. gotta love that lady gaga !
Even if any of this was true, it was just the spark that caused the market to plummet because of its highly unstable and artificial technical underpinnings. There is no longer any legitimate price discovery. The US financial system is a casino, dominated by a few big Banks and hedge funds, the gangs of New York.
ReplyDeleteJesse
By Monty Guild:
ReplyDeleteGREECE WILL RECEIVE A BAILOUT, AND THE BAILOUT WILL BE AIMED AT STRUCTURING FINANCIAL SECURITY FOR EUROPE AS A WHOLE
European financial officials from sixteen nations and some supra-national organizations met last weekend and announced that Greece will get a package of loans to be delivered to them over three years. Why is this happening? This is happening because if Europe does not support Greece, the government debt contagion that we have been discussing in recent memos will continue and spread. It will spread to Spain and Portugal and later to many countries in Europe including Italy and possibly France. Because they fear the spreading contagion, Europe wants to stop the crisis as soon as possible. In other words, Europe is getting a bailout, not just Greece.
In addition, Greece already owes several European nations a great deal of money, and they do not want Greece to go bankrupt and renege on all of their debts.
For an illustration of Europe’s motivation, please click on this link, and use a full screen to view the chart:
The New York Times "Europe Web of Debt"
This chart is stunning and speaks eloquently to the need of Europe to get their fiscal house in order, and to stop living beyond their means before the entire system, (not just Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland and Portugal) collapses. It is no secret that France is also indebted, and Britain, although not in the Euro Community, is equally poorly positioned for the future.
THE CITIZENS IN EVERY COUNTRY SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT UNFUNDED PROMISES BY SHORT-SIGHTED POLITICIANS TO SHORT SIGHTED CITIZENS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DECLINE IN THEIR STANDARD OF LIVING. The root of the problem is that promises have not been backed up by the money to pay for them.
Europe is not going to be healthy and secure just because some irresponsible European governments get temporary bailouts. No problem is solved by these actions…the problem is just extended. Europe will eventually renege or pay back these debts by: 1) devaluing the Euro, 2) implementing quantitative easing thorough government purchases of the debt of the weak countries, and 3) possibly by nationalizing employee pensions and forcing the pensions to hold government debt. It is an age-old scam that politicians and kings have imposed upon the taxpayers and serfs for centuries.
new ----ing post ;)
ReplyDelete