Thursday, May 6, 2010
5/7/10 Easy
Why in the world
Would anyboddy put chains on me?
I've paid my dues to make it
Everbody wants me to be
What they want me to be
I'm not happy when I try to fake it!
No!
Ooh,that's why I'm easy
I'm easy like sunday morning
That's why I'm easy
I'm easy like sunday morning
I wanna be high, so high
I wanna be free to know
The things I do are right
I wanna be free
Just me, babe!
That's why I'm easy
I'm easy like sunday morning
That's why I'm easy
I'm easy like sunday morning
Because I'm easy
Easy like sunday morning
Because I'm easy
Easy like sunday morning
Relax, man.
I missed the entire trading opportunity between 1130-12N (PST). It wasn't meant to be. (I understand that NASDAQ plans to cancel trades executed between 240-3pm [EST] that are 'clearly erroneous,' which will p--- off a few traders.)
To pick one stock at random- WATG @ 6.48? Yeah, right.
Let's single out the two traders here who played it 'right:'
(a) David. The 'Hussman armor' finally paid off, with ultrashort hedges doing what we pay them to do- allow us to emerge not only unscathed but way on top during a major market sell-off. His experience also highlighted the value of limit orders- make the decision ahead of time, thereby ensuring a decent execution while others are trying to unscramble their minds.
(b) Shark. He was clearly right in deciding not to ---- with the market, given high odds the market was going to ---- with us.
I'm with t3d on not quite buying the 'trading error' explanation. I think we continue to sell off.
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Hey, man. Check this out.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sentimentrader.com/
Just for the record, I closed ITMN @ 12.20, well before the afternoon spike down.
ReplyDeletehey 2nd - don't count us buyers here as losers just yet! if we have a big bounce in the next few days then we might just be the big winners :)
ReplyDeleteHi Jesse- Welcome! I'm guessing your referring to any chance that big spike down was a fat finger?
ReplyDeleteHow do you trade?
TOF- The comment by the NYSE CEO kept me from opening anything AH. If we sell off early tomorrow I'll take some shots.
First the market and now the Sharks. WTF did I do wrong today...hey, don't all shout at once :)
ReplyDeleteMark - I heard his comments too...we'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the 1,050 to 1,070 area again. I don't think this whole thing was a mistake...just an overflow of sell orders. To me it was 1987 in fast motion.
ReplyDeleteTOF- 1120 was my last short stand in Dec...and here we are again. Wild.
ReplyDeleteMarko, sorry to dis-appoint this is Jesse.
ReplyDeletehttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
This is a screen shot of my CME quote. Check out the spread in the current blue lines. (R2,R1,PP,S1,S2).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/ODMyMzU3
tof- I've been around the markets long enough not to count ANYone as a loser.
ReplyDeleteI mean, I've been razzing David for weeks. And he made it all back and then some in one freaking day.
T3D- Not a disappointed as Kendra will be when she realizes I cut her head off :)!
ReplyDeleteI've seen gamblers at the craps table work down a stack of greens/blacks to half a stack of reds, and then make it all back.
ReplyDeleteFWIW
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/559e4d76-7f00-4b92-abea-5f9523558df9
2nd- Looks like you preforming there? It's a good picture.
ReplyDeletet3d- I think we may be in for more than -9.2%. I wouldn't rule out -25%. What's that, DJIA 8500?.
ReplyDelete1980.
ReplyDeleteIf today was 'just a trader glitch,' it doesn't appear Asian traders are waiting to find out if it's really true.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who bought anything long today and went into the close has B-LLS of steel. Tommorrow and Monday are not going to be for the faint of heart, especially if we sell off on un-employment rate into the close.
ReplyDeleteI was telling Phyllis that the market was crashing when it was -489 I looked down and up and it was -989 and XOM was -10%, could not believe my eyes.
Going to get my knee shot up with Prolotherapy now it will hurt for a few days but than feel better. I hate the shots though.
I was also talking to her just a little while ago how much I would be down if we drop 25%. Hmm!
Here's my take (after a glass of Nadurra)-
ReplyDelete(a) The market really did crash today.
(b) The post-mortem explanations are bullshit.
(c) ST buying/short-covering would be enough to explain the 'recovery.' Let's face it, bears were looking at unreal gains, and like all good traders, they tripped over themselves trying to lock those gains in. I mean, HOW LONG have they been waiting for any gains at all?
The remainder of the crash will unfold over the next few trading days.
T3D- I figure, roughly, if I'd held all of my positions to EOD, I'd be down 40-50K from last Thursday. UN FUCKING REAL.
ReplyDeleteI hope that explains why I didn't make any trades today, but the hard fact is, I was nervous.
On the other hand, if I hadn't bought the last dip, I would have missed out on about 35K that was booked this week.
So, are we at a point where a year's worth of trading gains can be made soon??
Mark- If I had been able to buy the ultralongs at today's lows, and sold them at the close- I figure that'd be a year's worth of trading gains. In 15 minutes.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with the knees. Mine are shot. No meniscus left in either...tons of calcium in it's place.
ReplyDelete2nd- Yep. I just froze man.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, I was in the midst of the 'Change Investments' process on the Fido platform, trying to decide which funds to 'Exchange' into (for the buy-and-hold half), when the DJIA printed 9917. By the time I got ready to execute those transactions, the DJIA had recovered a few hundred points, and I was no longer interested.
ReplyDeleteFF- This is your type of hockey!!! The Sharks just had 4 players in the penalty box :)
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
ReplyDelete"In 1986, the United States economy began shifting from a rapidly growing recovery to a slower growing expansion, which resulted in a "soft landing" as the economy slowed and inflation dropped. The stock market advanced significantly, with the Dow peaking in August 1987 at 2722 points, or 44% over the previous year's closing of 1895 points.
"On October 14, the DJIA dropped 95.46 points (a then record) to 2412.70, and fell another 58 points the next day, down over 12% from the August 25 all-time high. On Friday, October 16, when all the markets in London were unexpectedly closed due to the Great Storm of 1987, the DJIA closed down another 108.35 points to close at 2246.74 on record volume. Treasury Secretary James Baker stated concerns about the falling prices. That weekend many investors worried over their stock investments.
"The crash began in Far Eastern markets the morning of October 19. Later that morning, two U.S. warships shelled an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf in response to Iran's Silkworm missile attack on the U.S. flagged ship MV Sea Isle City."[9]
2nd- All I kept thinking was Patricia has no Fing idea how lucky I got.
ReplyDelete"The crash began in Hong Kong, spread west through international time zones to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped by 508 points to 1738.74 (22.61%)."[1]
ReplyDelete2nd- Now that's FAR more interesting to me than charts of a crash 90 years ago.
ReplyDeleteMark- And you may well be thinking tomorrow or Monday you were 2x/3x as lucky as you think you are now. If 1987 can be explained by psychology (which is controversial), then I sure as hell wouldn't want to be long the next few days. Human nature tends not to change much.
ReplyDeleteAlright, off to bed. No way would I miss tomorrow's open.
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys watching financial shows right now? I can't find anything that's not delayed. Porn on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteI was lucky today, coming out with a very small loss only because went long GLD on Tuesday (holding). Offset by untimely purchase of POWL Wednesday (holding...don't mess with this unless you are a swing trader. Low vol, big spreads, small cap value play.) Interim, I was in and out of GILD for small profits. Hold a couple utilities at a loss (ENI & GXP). Am not proud of my trading. Would like to get invested into the intermediate trend at least but stops & targets says not now.
ReplyDeleteChina doing much better now.
ReplyDeleteGood for you illini!! I'm also proud of my trading recently.
ReplyDeleteAs I was thinking how I could have improved today's performance, I realized that I should have placed sell limit orders on my S&P puts as well. At some point, I think, they were worth double or triple their closing price of the day. At the very least, I should place sell limit orders on my June SPY puts, since they are getting close to expiration and so are becoming more and more risky.
ReplyDeleteBack in December 2009, I purchased one SPY June $112 put for 7 fuckin 20 (I think it was in-the-money at that point, but it still seems damn expensive now). So now I'll be happy if I just come out flat on that trade, and so I placed a sell limit order for that put at $7.20.
Then, in March 2010, I purchased 4 SPY June $114 puts for $3.80 each, and now I am placing a sell limit order for these puts at $8.00.
At the end of March 2010, I purchased 3 SPY June $117 puts for $3.99 each, and I am placing a sell limit order for them at $12.
In April I purchased 1 SPY September $119 put for $5.55, but I suspect that the chance of it expiring is pretty low, and so I'll just let it "run" for now.
Now, on the long side, I noticed that July $7.50 puts on WATG closed with the bid at $0.3 and ask at $0.75! These got to be the most amazing prices I have ever seen for such deep out of the money puts. I placed a sell limit order at $0.5 for 5 July $7.50 puts and at $0.7 for 5 more such puts.
I suggest you guys think about selling some puts as well. When the volatility spikes so much, puts become VERY expensive, and selling them is the right thing to do.
ReplyDeleteWhile I am at it, I am also placing a sell limit order at $6.3 for the 2 BP June $50 puts I purchased yesterday at $2.08.
ReplyDeleteContinuing in the same spirit, I placed buy to cover limit orders at $16.2 and $15.2 for 250 shares of XHB (I shorted 500 shares at $17.2).
ReplyDeleteAlso, I placed a sell stop limit order at $17/16.95 for my remaining 750 shares of SLV.
I'm awake - got to watch the open in Europe. s/b another wild one today
ReplyDeletejb-Are you saying you woke up around MN (pst)?
ReplyDelete2nd said,
ReplyDeleteThe remainder of the crash will unfold over the next few trading days.
actually, we are not opposite thinking this time. This market is full of fear, the economic stats are already good and if we are waiting just for unemployment, I don't know if that is going to be enough to start a rally especially on a friday
so, i want to buy short - david, which is the best qid, qqqq,
who is the bank jim rogers is shorting? is it JPM??? I bet that is not all he is shorting either
just giving my 2 cents
as always
DIA bid 105.75, implying +50 in the DJIA right now.
ReplyDeletevb- There are no 'best' shorts during a broad market sell-off. Might stick with ones you've traded in the past.
ReplyDeletegood, then I can sell on open
ReplyDelete2nd, okay, then I think it will add faz and sell on open.
ReplyDeleteI plan to sell 1/2 my longs on the open *will sell off the rest on any spikes up over the next few days). I will add faz pre market
ReplyDelete2nd, i can see you are in deep thought this morning.
ReplyDeleteyeah 2nd, got up a tad too early today!
ReplyDeleteBest comment I've see this morning:
ReplyDeletekensey Says:
May 7th, 2010 at 7:35 am
Whoever believes in the wrong button theory has not looked at charts of the corporate bond market / Yen Usd half an hour before the crash. There was a massive unwinding of Yen carry trade going on which spilled into the stock market and most likely triggered sell signals in a lot of HFT systems.
‘Wrong button’ was damage control spin.
Hey Guys,
ReplyDeleteThe "fat finger" excuse was a wise choice....
It's only the next day and everyone (wants) to forget about the plunge. Who can't forget? The sharkmeister, that's who.
2nd I like your taste in music as much as any Gen X-er can, but Lionel Ritchie? Cmon dude. Maybe "all night long" is all right. Reminds me in fact of dancing up the stairs of a hotel I was staying at in the Bahamas a bunch of years ago, with another straight guy, a dude from Flint Michigan who I think consorted with my resort honey while my back was turned but who can blame them? I sure don't. I really miss being a kid.
Am I the only one thinking of putting Mohammed El-Erian on a no-fly list:)
another saying I don't listen to: markets don't bottom on Fridays. that one was wiped out back in February.
ReplyDeleteOpening positions in TZA/FAZ 7.07/13.92...
ReplyDeleteWhat great timing that was...
ReplyDeleteWow...that was a pretty solid jobs report. Bears can continue to hang their hat on the unemployment rate.
ReplyDeleteGuys - I was looking at the mini crash from October 13, 1989 and putting it in similar context to this one. Actually it is quite similar. Remember in 1989 that it was about 2 years after the crash of 87. So there were probably still significant fears about the 87 crash. In October 1989 the market crashed about 6-7%. It pierced through the 50 DMA and immediately bounced back up to the 50 DMA before resuming a slide. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a similar bounce back up to the 50 DMA and then we would resume a slide. That would mean a bounce to about 117 on SPY. Check it out when you get a chance.
ReplyDeleteshark- 'Easy' was the song playing on the turntable one morning during a visit with my older cousin in Manhattan in the eighties. I was standing at the window looking out at NYC in all its rundown glory. What great years those were. He finally got it together, married a nurse, had a beautiful girl, got a great job, bought a house on Long Island. Had it all. Then a stroke took him away early a few years ago- his Dad, who always regretted not moving out of NYC when he had the chance (thus sparing his children from the [false]promises/punishments that are part/parcel of growing up in the city), passed away last year.
ReplyDeleteWe're all making/losing money in the markets on a daily basis.
ReplyDeleteDon't let it get to you.
Wow. 2nd...I had no idea:)
ReplyDeleteFor that matter, REO Speedwagon's "Keep on Loving You" reminds me of the first time I uh, well, let's just say I have great memories of a really dumb song.
I am not going any longer into today....
I will sell PAL at/above my buy price and get the heck out for the weekend, as we wait for other shoes to drop...
nano up 8% pre market
ReplyDeleteThe only news I could find for the stuff we watch was...
ReplyDeleteM.C. Ford cuts WATG from buy to hold.
Where can I get one of those cool jackets the floor traders wear?
ReplyDeleteWTF is going on with WATG? It's now down about 35% from a few days ago. I re-listened to the conference call and read their earnings report and there was nothing in there to suggest anything bad...
ReplyDeleteSGEN @ 11.05
ReplyDeleteSD @ 6.50
ReplyDeleteSGEN off @ 11.53
ReplyDeleteSD off @ 6.66
ReplyDeleteBought some GOOG at $500.
ReplyDeleteDamn...missed WATG.
ReplyDeleteAdded more WATG at $8.8.
ReplyDeleteThinking about a swing trade back into sugar SGG.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I like GOOG at these levels also. I'm going to wait a few days for anything other than a scalp.
ReplyDeleteAll the E&P guys I follow had a nice pop, but are now rolling over.
ReplyDeletefinding its footing, the market is. i'd expect some big volatility for the first hour or two and then the real move will come.
ReplyDeleteMark - that's all I'm doing right now...trying to scalp.
ReplyDeleteGo 2nd Go!!!!!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Got it, thanks.
ReplyDeleteAdded a bit more GOOG at $494. Just trying to scalp.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Actually, if this keeps up, I might enter some swing trades.
ReplyDeleteI suspect the knee jerk move down is the wrong move but this is just my stream of consciousness talking, so please no one go back to this in a few weeks and call me out on it!
ReplyDeleteOut of TZA/FAZ @ 7.39/14.66...
ReplyDeleteFAST FAST FAST right now. Careful.
ReplyDeleteSGEN @ 10.97 again.
ReplyDeleteSGEN off for a loss @ 10.88. Bid/ask is just too wide right now.
ReplyDeleteNo trades yesterday or today. Wish I had my 150k of TZA to sell, still. Or those IWM puts. Spilt milk. Took profits too early.
ReplyDeleteChanging chart formats. Not sure if I'll ever find anything that works that I can read well enough to trade.
OK squaring away my trades. Selling off the swing trades and stepping aside.
ReplyDeleteStill holding some WATG and SPY
That fast and it's madness again.
ReplyDeletei still think today's action is margin call related. if we really do bomb today I will probably move some cash into my longs - i'll need to if i want to maintain my current AA. it's out of whack now due to the last 3 days action.
ReplyDeletehang on to your martini's!
It's raining shoes.....
ReplyDeleteactually, screw it...i'm back in GOOG at $486. GOOG had solid earnings throughout the recession and they just increased their market share. The stock is trading at 14 times this year's earnings after excluding cash. i'm changing my thinking on this and i'm cool with this longer term, despite what the markets are doing right now
ReplyDeleteDamn- who the hell can play this kind of action, unless you're sitting in front of a set-up like Bob's....no ----ing way I can play it at the day job...
ReplyDelete2nd- I can't even do it here. Bid/asks are crazy.
ReplyDeleteGMO back to 3.50.
ReplyDeleteS&P hit the 200 DMA and bounced.
ReplyDeleteGuys,
ReplyDeleteI spent a lot of time yesterday wondering whether the spike down yesterday was a cathartic plunge (30% I thought at the time) or a harbinger of the market's future direction.
You can imagine my conclusion and guys, I think today will be a BIG DOWN AFTERNOON.
You'd have to be mentally defective to go long into this weekend (which makes you wisenheimers among you think aah, I will go long after all....)
Gone Fishing.
CP- I hope you took the 'gift' pricing GMO was offering earlier around 3.86/3.90.
ReplyDeleteThis isn't a wall of worry....
ReplyDeleteIt's 35 feet of smooth verticle concrete topped with a generous bundle of razorwire.
Time to break out the weed, the beer, and.....hey wait....it isn't even lunchtime...
Damn I need a program:)
I hope VAD got his computer turned back on, I'm interested to see what he's doing in this market.
And no, I don't think he unplugged the thing himself! You hecklers!
Shark - I'll take the other side of the trade on that...we've seen that spikes up to the 40+ level are buying opportunities in times other than 2008. Exhibit A: Asian debt crisis in 1998.
ReplyDeletesorry...spikes in volatility up to 40+ i should have said
ReplyDeleteI didn't even realize it but my buy order on REDF was hit at $2.70. I'm the proud owner of a rinky dinky Indian internet company.
ReplyDeleteBy the way - In the WATG conference call yesterday someone asked if they're looking at doing acquisitions. They said they're actually in the middle of closing an acquisition that will be finalized in the 1st half of 2010. I don't think they mentioned exactly what it was.
ReplyDeleteTZA back to 7.2x...this is day trading heaven. And I'm stuck in day job hell...
ReplyDeletetof- Nice call.
ReplyDeleteEnergy rolling over AGAIN. I sure wussed out on SGEN.
ReplyDeleteMake that rolling over hard.
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm not taking the bait...day ain't over yet.
ReplyDeleteNow energy moving up strongly...wow.
ReplyDeleteSlope of Hope posted something about how the move yesterday was the similar (in reverse) to the move in September 08. Remember that move? Huge jump up in one day followed by craziness the other way. What if this was the huge fake out before the V-shaped recovery really takes hold?
ReplyDeleteI doubt it but who the h knows?
All right. I'll see you guys later.
ReplyDeleteWow this Dow moves around like a stripper working her very first shift. She's all over the place:)
ReplyDeleteI have to say some of these metals nbames seem like appealing buys here. Other than stock market risk going into next week that is:)
ReplyDeleteI just bought a small yamana postion.
ReplyDeleteI see the market had a nice drop this morning accompanied by a VIX spike, but unfortunately none of the sell limit orders I placed for my S&P puts were triggered today. I guess today's fear was nothing in comparison with yesterday's fear...
ReplyDeleteStill, someone did freak out and purchased from me 5 July $7.50 WATG puts for $250. Thank you for the $250 gift. :) Or for allowing me to buy 500 shares of WATG at $7!
I also see that SLV, instead of hitting my stop order at $17, is in the process of reaching for the moon. The Hunt brothers are back! :) I moved the sell stop limit order for my SLV shares to $17.55/$17.5.
Finally, I just saw that SD managed to drop to $6.32 by now, and so I just bought 250 more shares at $6.32. Whenever we do a long-term investment, it pays to start with a small position and then add to it on substantial weakness.
vb, the two ultras I chose are SKF (because of the coming second leg down in the housing prices) and TWM (because small caps went WAY too far for the given environment of continually reducing business and consumer credit, high unemployment, etc.). When VIX dropped below $20, I started scaling into S&P puts, but with the current high levels of VIX buying puts is not such a good deal any longer.
ReplyDeleteteamonfuego, could it be that all the potential growth in WATG was already priced in and it was a huge momentum game? The momentum players have simply jumped off this stock over the past few days.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I'm wondering the same thing. I may just be wrong on this stock? From a valuation perspective and long term growth perspective, it seems just way too oversold but jeez...this has gone down 35% in 4 days with no abating in selling. Look at what CAAS and SORL have done...both are still in bull mode, sitting well above their 200 DMA's. WATG is looking very ugly technically.
ReplyDeleteI just canceled the unfilled open order to sell 5 more WATG July $7.50 puts at $0.7. At this rate, WATG will be at $6 in a few days and I'll sell $5 puts instead. :)
ReplyDeleteOne thing I can say is that this company does not appear to be heading for bankruptcy, so it is just a matter of catching the bottom of this stock. Since "falling knives" can cut badly, the only way to survive this activity is to use VERY small position sizes and large increments between buy orders.
dipping my toe back in the loooong water.
ReplyDeletetyh@32.11
teamonfuego, WATG was below $4 for 6 months in late 2008/early 2009. As the fears of a second leg down in the global economy are surfacing, it can easily get back down below $4 again. What we have learned, however, is that the global economy is very resilient, and the global trends of increasing population and increasing car ownership in Asia will ultimately set the trend for this stock. So, as I said, our task is simply not get too greedy too fast when we see something that looks like a bargain, but scale in gradually into any long-term idea we like.
ReplyDeleteThe asking price on October $5 WATG put is already $0.4! So I am joining the ranks of "vultures" and placing a sell limit order for 10 WATG October $5 puts at $0.4.
ReplyDelete2x upped tyh @32.00.
ReplyDeletewow, guess i hopped back on the pain train
At least UNG is behaving well today so far. :) Keep in mind: the $3.82 key Fibonacci support level on the NGas front month futures has already been tested SEVERAL times over the past few weeks (including yesterday), but it was NEVER broken, even intraday.
ReplyDeleteDavid - the stock is now trading at 6 times earnings ex-cash. Right or wrong, that's cheap. Action is really just awful though. I'm not sure why I haven't stopped myself out yet. Maybe because I thought the price I got in at was good for a longer term investment, given the excellent growth prospects for car sales in China???
ReplyDelete"David - the stock is now trading at 6 times earnings ex-cash. Right or wrong, that's cheap."
ReplyDeleteI think emerging markets are usually trading at a P/E of 6 or so. So now WATG may simply be in line with average investor expectations with all the weak hands shaken off this stock over the past few days. If this is so, then NOW is the time to buy it as a long-term investment.
If you have not had a position in WATG -- would you open a starter position now? If so, then don't sell everything you have. If your position size is making you nervous, sell 1/2 of it. In this way, you'll feel glad that you did it if WATG drops down another 50% and you'll also be glad that you held 1/2 of your shares if WATG rebounds by 50%. :)
sold my 2nd lot of TYH @32.60.
ReplyDeletefast action today
Ladies....
ReplyDeletei heard you David. I jumped in with too big of a position too quickly. Oh well...
ReplyDeleteOn a side note, I actually managed a gain today on GOOG. Sold at $497.
Hard to believe I'd say AAPL is a broken stock, but look at 180 daily.
ReplyDeleteGuess I wasn't wrong about SGEN after all. It's madness I tell you, madness....
ReplyDeleteMight the Feb. lows be in play here?
ReplyDeleteWell, I took my lump on WATG. Big loss on that sucker. Note to self: don't buy a stock that is under it's 200 DMA...in a down market...with fears about China slowing.
ReplyDeleteOn a brighter side, sold REDF at a small gain...
ReplyDeleteAnyone but me expecting to hear the worlds largest toilet flush in the next 45 minutes?
ReplyDeleteSelling SPY index fund at the close here. Stepping aside.
ReplyDeletehey Mark - I'm really not. Again, I think the early/mid day action was related to margin calls.
ReplyDeletethat said, we shit the bed into the close then I'm buying more
Miners down with gold up. Not a good omen. On sidelines. When will I learn not to sell for small profits? Wasn't there or had no guts to rebuy later. What a misery.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure another 100M people are thinking the same thing, but perhaps reverse MF Monday and a buying opp. on Tue.?
ReplyDeletebought back TYH@31.80...full position
ReplyDelete$SPX dealing w/ 1110; BGZ @ 16.0
ReplyDeleteYa' know, if we want to get long onto this at some point, the best play might be large caps.
ReplyDeleteJB- You a crazy man!!!
ReplyDeleteMark- I'm thinking the opposite> Major sell-off on Monday.
ReplyDeleteMark - SSO/BGZ is what I've been trying to trade. BGU is alternative to SSO...
ReplyDelete2nd- We're on the same page, by reverse, I mean a Monday sell off. Have to be some tough decisions made this weekend.
ReplyDeletego faz
ReplyDeleteGood luck to anyone willing to step into this. I'm changing my thinking on it after taking a nice hit to the port the past couple of days. I'd rather wait this thing out.
ReplyDeleteHEK is really breaking down here.
ReplyDeleteJB- Bail man. Even if it turns around is it worth it?
ReplyDeleteung is up, i call this trend reversal -
ReplyDeleteI'm going to sit tight w/TYH...we'll end up with endless weekend shows which focus exclusively on the resilience of the us economy and i think we rock higher at the open mon.
ReplyDeleteotherwise, bro, i'll be wanting to get that gig driving your water truck!!
dag is up too -- slightly after taking a beating
ReplyDeleteMy hat's off to anyone who played the last 2 hours correctly.
ReplyDeleteTalk about froth...BIDU might just be a good play on the short side. Might buy 1 put for sh*ts and giggles.
ReplyDeleteJB- OK...but that's not a water truck :))
ReplyDeleteKyle- So is SGG.
ReplyDeleteI just checked about 20 big stocks and 2/3 of them had order imbalance on the sell side.
ReplyDeleteKRY spike
ReplyDeleteYou gotta wonder if people will be ratcheting down the multiples they assign to S&P 500 earnings as a result of Europe's woes and Asia's slowdown. I wonder if they will look at earnings of 80 and assign 12-13 multiples instead of 15 or 16 multiples. If so that means 960-1040 instead of 1,200 to 1,300.
ReplyDeleteAlso, earnings will surely get hit by a significantly rising dollar, won't they?
Good call JB. You got a pair man.
ReplyDeleteUXG put up a noble fight, but looks like it has succumbed to the general market weakness. I placed a buy limit order at $3 to replace the last 1000 shares I sold at the average price of $3.55. Let's see if this order gets hit on Monday. :)
ReplyDeleteGreek Ruins
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/greek-ruins/
I made two horrible trading mistakes in 2010: I closed almost all of my ultrashorts a couple of days before the January sell-off and then reloaded my shorts at the bottom of that sell-off, only to be impaled by an unreal market spike over the next 3 months. How much worse can it get?
ReplyDeleteWell, the OptionsHouse account in which I made these two errors is up 19% for the month of May (up another 3.6% today), and is currently down only 2.5% for the year. The lesson here, I suppose, is that if we don't give up after making major mistakes but keep looking forward and keep trying to do the best that we can, the market will keep providing opportunities to make it all back. I think Jesse Livermore has demonstrated this to a full extent.
Talk about taking my plane out of a nosedive yet again (the first nosedive was in October 2008, when I kept buying UXG/WGW on the way down and took out 1/2 of my 401K to cover the margin calls and then, in November 2008, maxed out my credit card to buy WGW at $0.5). :)
OK, I am going to a local BevMo store now to buy myself a bottle of Glenlivet Nadurra. :)
ReplyDeletefull position of FAS at 28.84
ReplyDeleteok, that's it for me...it's either success or suicide....and the fam doesn't care which way i go
oh David - Bev Mo is basically an adult christmas store....tons of great seasonal brews in stock I'm sure...have fun!
ReplyDeleteJeez David - You take gambling addiction to new heights.
ReplyDeleteWhat's WGW by the way?
I'm really happy where I ended up, position-wise, today....now all I need is a weekend of endless RA RA fro all the weekend news shows, thane I can dump my longs pre-market.
ReplyDeleteenjoy the weekend guys. sunday is mom's day bbq, then full on charting!
David- Let me know when you get home, and we can simultaneously toast eachother with a tumbler of Nadurra ;)
ReplyDeleteWGW was a miner with a decent gold mine in CA. It was bought out by NGD for 1 to 1 share exchange. I had a huge position in WGW, as well as in NGD. Ended up shorting NGD because I couldn't sell the WGW on the conversion pop.
ReplyDeleteWGW was "discovered" by 2nd_ave when it was at $2.2. I started buying it heavily when it dropped to $1.5, and then kept scaling in/scaling out for a year, at some point buying A LOT of it at $0.5, until I finally scaled out of all my positions at $2.2. It was bought out at $2.5. WGW was the major highlight of my trading in 2008. :)
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- I am back! :) I also picked up a bottle of French Absinthe with real Grand Wormwood, while I was at it. :) Now I don't even know where to start. :))
ReplyDeleteQuick, name a mining stock that was up both yesterday and today and closed at a 3-month high today?
ReplyDeleteHint: it is my largest PM/miner position. :)
That was fast! I just got home.
ReplyDeleteHow much was it at the BevMo down there? I had a $10 grand opening coupon, and it was about $51 out the door...
ReplyDeleteIt was $56.99+tax at my location. Some Costco stores have it for under $50, but not my local stores, and so I decided to not worry about a $10 price difference after such a week. :) But next time I am at Costco that has this stuff, I am buying a case of it. :)
ReplyDeleteSeems like David started w/o me, and is probably already high on absinthe.
ReplyDeleteThere you are. I've got a shot glass topped off for a toast, followed by tumbler to keep the buzz going.
ReplyDeleteCheers!
On my wish list for Monday is a +100 point gap up, followed by a -20% sell-off.
ReplyDeleteThat would pretty much make my year, as well as allow me to park the buy-and-hold in a total market fund for the remainder of the year.
It would allow me to buy TZA around 7, and unload it @ 11+.
ReplyDelete11+ is where I recall trading a few thousand shares last December while in Vegas.
ReplyDeleteCheers! Here is to NEVER giving up!
ReplyDeleteMan, you deserve this drink more than anyone I can think of!
ReplyDeleteI learned this from you, 2nd_ave. I remember your post about a bright side always existing in any market action. If the whole market suddenly collapses and you were caught holding 2X ultralongs -- no worries, switch to 3X ultralongs and make it all back plus some more on the way back up! There is always a "lateral" move that one can make into an even greater bargain!
ReplyDeleteThat thought was a revelation to me, and since then I was managing my portfolio using this "layering" approach to risk. I started scaling into 2X ultrashorts (as opposed to the 3X ones) exactly to allow myself the chance of a lateral move into 3X ultrashorts if the market becomes really mad. This madness became very apparent at the end of April, and I did make a lateral move from TWM into TZA. If S&P had reached 1250, I would have moved all my SKF into FAZ.
If NGas keeps going down, I'll be gradually switching my UNG position into HNU.TO position.
Thank you, man, for teaching me this valuable lesson!
You're welcome!
ReplyDeleteIt takes a gambler to know one ;)
(I've never really understood why 'gambling' is anathema in the trading world. What exactly do traders think they're doing? As far as I'm concerned- if there's risk, it's gambling.)
vb- You did exactly the right thing this morning- sell longs at the open, and buy FAZ pre-market.
ReplyDeleteAs for Mark, he's probably buying dinner from his personal butcher at the market, and we'll get another recipe disguised as a financial post tomorrow ;)
ReplyDeleteVinod- We're waiting to hear from you!
ReplyDeleteshark in particular.
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