Monday, May 31, 2010
6/1/10 I Feel Free
You can dodge Wall Street, there's no one there
Banks have been paved by the bad news crowd
You can fly down the road; your eyes can see,
And your mind wants to cry out loud
Reposting Craig's link:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/james-montier-i-want-to-break-free/
Cash takes on new meaning.
Or, if you're another blogger, diamonds take on new meaning.
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Mark- Do you have a professional opinion on Horizon at Semiahmoo? (Take your time responding.)
ReplyDeleteRe: Horizon at Semiahmoo newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4440 comments) on Mon, 05/31/2010 - 19:03 #63770 (in reply to #63765)
ReplyDeleteloannetter- Pricing for finished homes then begins at 309k for projects originally priced in the 1m range?
Horizon at Semiahmoo
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by loannetter (676 comments) on Mon, 05/31/2010 - 16:01 #63765
2nd Ave,
And others interested in our corner of paradise: This project was officially soft re-launched this week and I can provide US or Canadian connections if you are interested. Lots are going for $99K about 1/3 the original price. Frontier Bank was taken over by Union Bank of SF but the developer is still on title and focused to the future and integrity of the offering by meeting the market. My role will be to help find the money but you may bring your own bags full. http://www.liveathorizon.com
Craig- Let me also ask if you know much about the area.
ReplyDeleteIt's beautiful there, right at the Blaine border crossing. 90 miles to Seattle, not too far from Bellingham.
ReplyDeleteThe San Juan Islands are awesome, very spendy/exclusive. A bit colder there than the South sound where I am but they are in the rain shadow of the Olympic Mountains so it rains less but they get winds off the Strait of Juan de Fuca and being closer to Canada's Frazer Valley sometimes cold weather in winter. But great skiing, excellent boating in the San Juan's, and moderate summers. A maritime climate like the bay area but not as foggy and cooler in summer.
Nicely situated near Vancouver and British Columbia. You have to like rain instead of fog or get used to it. I've gotten used to the rain and look forward to it in the fall. I was born in So. Cal. and I like to visit but I'm always relieved when I cross the Columbia river at Portland and get in the trees again.
2nd- Do you have a link to the development?
ReplyDeleteLooks like they just ran some stops in the ES. It will be interesting to see if it bounces here and opens tomorrow higher.
ReplyDeleteAre any of you guys watching the live feed of the work being done on the riser right now? (gulf spill)
ReplyDeleteReally amazing. They should start to cut the broken part of the BP (blow off preventor) soon and then try to get the LMRP (lower marine riser package in place. It's on the ocean floor right beside it.
www.liveathorizon.com
ReplyDelete2nd- I'll check it out.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Craig. I'm definitely not a hot (or humid) weather person. I can handle rain, as long as temperature/humidity are in the 70s.
ReplyDelete2nd- I'll make a few calls tomorrow. Investment, land, building, rental?
ReplyDeleteHumidity in the 70's? Is it possible to dry laundry outdoors when the humidity's that high?
ReplyDeleteI guess it's 70/70 in Sonoma at the moment? Sounds pretty wet to me...
Looking a little bearish out there tonight but gold is up some...
ReplyDeleteTrying to be consistent with the rule of not letting a profit turn into a loss, I am placing a sell stop limit order at $39.20/$39 for the shares of TBT I purchased last week at $39.11.
ReplyDeleteMark-
ReplyDeleteWe see it as a chance to do what we didn't do several years ago- buy a 2nd home in Vancouver. Wife likes the designs she sees on the site.
I'm the kind of person who doesn't need to vacation somewhere different every year. Over the next 30 years, I could easily return to Blaine/Vancouver 30 times.
Futes not looking so hot...
ReplyDeleteBP trading near the March 2, 2009 lows right now...
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The indices turned back down.
The look poised to resume their recent slide.
Futures are weak pre-market so we'll see some follow through, at least on the open.
2nd- OK..I'll look at it from that angle.
ReplyDeleteHaving lunch with MOG today. Can't wait.
ES globex low was 1069.
ReplyDeleteCareful here. GS strong and the financials coming back.
ReplyDeleteOIL has almost come all the way back.
ReplyDeleteFull MOG report immediately upon return, I'll bet he's bullish with the caveat euro needs to experience a bottom.
ReplyDeleteI'm considering a quickie with TOT.
BP - The Germans hit it 8% last night.
To my eyes S&P still looks like it's playing out an inverse H&S.
ReplyDeleteDo you guys see this as well, or is it just fishwull thinking on my behalf?
BP- Picking some up at 37.50...
ReplyDelete2nd - my original thinking on BP turned out to be true...why didn't I stick with it? Ahhhh oh well. I think they're S.O.L. and might go under given the enormous liabilities they will have. I think they will be on the hook for several hundred billions of dollars.
ReplyDeleteCP- Yeah, I saw it. Keeping everything crossed.
ReplyDeleteFull MOG report indeed!!
BP- Could sure make a case that the early trading was fear/capitulation.
ReplyDeleteBP - Definitely not on my radar for even a quick trade but I do prey them success shutting off the historic leak.
ReplyDeleteIs that a peak oil milkshake I see frothing in the GOM surf? From what I've been hearing BP was not well thought of throughout the industry prior to this incident and there's growing tongue biting going on now.
I tell ya, just buying GMO in the morning and flipping in afternoon would yield nice daily returns...
ReplyDeleteI'm a bit distracted today while the new "shed"'s going up.
RIG would have been a nice fear trade this AM. Sat there and watched it, but I've got enough Gulf "stress" packed into my little lunch pail.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell ya'...that was one hell of an fing turn around. Low volume spanking to the weak hands in Globex?
Dollar dropping like a rock now and crude pushing higher.
UNH - Flying now, told ya' I sold the bottom (didn't I?)!
ReplyDeleteOut of BP @ 38.33...
ReplyDeleteGood luck guys...later.
ReplyDeleteGood morning Barracuddas!
ReplyDeleteMy ire today is directed not toward the Jew, but to the hardcore Zionist committed to the destruction of Palestine and her inhabitants. Hey, Buddy......
You don't have the RIGHT to blockade Gaza. Gaza doesn't BELONG to you, you heavy-handed fucks.
You know, CNN, in fairness, did about 20 seconds on the Iraeli atrocities committed against peacekeepers and aid-bringers from many neutral nations. But imagine...If the Taliban, or the PAkistanis, or heaven help them if the Iraqi's had smoked 9 aid-givers, do you think MAYBE CNN would have done a little more than 20 seconds on it?
This is right out of Chomsky's "Manufacturing Consent" and the way the media makes stories they like REALLY REALLY BIG and stories they don't like really really small.
I am sure Maerican policymakers have long ago seen the foolishness of having given Israel 20 nukes.....as well as theh Pak's etc. It really does tie our hands policy-wise.
The Jews, in short, since their salvation from the clutches of Hitler's rabid dogs and death-machines, have been put in the really unenviable position of choosing between 2 dichotimous polar opposites...Opposing the oppressor, on the one hand, and becoming him, on the other.
Basically there are far too many right-wing Mercedes and BMW driving Jews who forget their own history, forget who they really are and risk becoming precisely what it is they once most strenuously opposed.
And yes, my dad was Jewish, secular, but I do feel that like a black guy using the "N" word, I have a right to say this stuff, and to express senmtiments in a way in which some white cracker Scottish WASP protestant from the Carolina's, for example, MAY not feel that he does.
Tyrrany is tyrrany, and right is right, and wrong is wrong, and we are all capable of it. Thing is, we expect more from the JEws, because they ARE smart, and because they do have a history of suffering, and of conquering problems, leading labor struggles etc and being vanguards and leaders toward the ideal of human freedom. So get right with Gaza boys. You look fucking silly killing aids workers.
Israel - I suppose in this instance my question is if Israel has any legal authority to blockade maritime traffic to and from Gaza. If they do, then the precedent should already be set and obviously exercised.
ReplyDeleteMy current impression is this particular situation could of been handled in a better way by the Israeli's, but of course many of our opinions are spoon fed to us in carefully measured ways.
TOT - Performing pretty well seems to me, but due to preoccupations I'm unprepared to take a position here and now.
ReplyDeleteBP - Setting a dome over the well head... Didn't that already fail the first time around?
ReplyDeleteA classic case of not having enough time and money to do a job right the first time around but more than enough to spend on subsequent failures.
Al and Tipper Gore to divorce.
ReplyDeleteGood riddance you fat fucking cow! Go rate some devilishly good metal records you hypocritical heifer.
Now when will Bill Clinton get smart? Not that he's any prize, but still:)
ReplyDeleteGreen close but who cares?
ReplyDeleteBill wrote:
ReplyDelete"I believe the "worst case scenario" you presented could easily be 10x that. In fact, I believe that BP's viability as a continuing company is in Washington's hands, and regardless of the lobbyists and whatever, I doubt the US public has any patience for their elected reps who won't push this issue to the extreme. So, this will be a test of America's resolve.
Just like a bank too big to fail, there is no oil company too big to fail. Life will go on."
I disagree with just about every one of Bill's well-lubricated points.
First of all, "I believe that BP's viability as a continuing company is in Washington's hands"
is utter nonsense. BP doesn't give a hoot about Washington...if they did, would they have continued to spray the dispers-stuff after the Obama admin told them not to? BP treats the U.S. government like a towel-boy staffing the executive washroom at some private club.
"Just like a bank too big to fail, there is no oil company too big to fail. Life will go on."
Life will not just go on. This is going to leak guys, not until August, but for at LEAST 6 months and quite possibly, "forever". Think about it. They are planning to drill 2 "relief" wells, when they couldn't even do one right at the depth they attempted it. What are the odds of one of those relief wells also leaking, and for the leak to leak for YEARS or DECADES while oild is drained from the relief wells?
The only thing bothering BP is seeing OUR oild, yes it's our Goddamn oil folks, not theirs, but what makes them cry is not seeing it in the ocean but simply not being able to sell it back to us. OUR oil, NOT theirs.
Thankfully, Obama is now cooked, done, stick a fork in him. I liked him and supported a full-bore socialist revolution which was possible when he took office....But now he's fucked up too much with his base and all the hopey changey shit has really gone out the window.
By the way...to those who consciously allow me to post from the heart here on your blog, I thank you. For all those who, at the very least, hold their tongue and allow me to give voice to the WIDE RANGE of stuff which relates tangentially but not particularly directly to market action, I thank you also.
Shark - I hope Obama isn't done. I love hearing people chant for someone new...wasn't he someone new? Do we really want to go back to a Bush-type?
ReplyDeleteI like Obama, if not for his oratorical skills then certainly for his intellect and seeming drive to work hard, all of which Bush blew at.
And BP > I agree that they might be toast. This spill is a HUGE disaster. Just wait til the hurricanes come in. I don't understand why they don't just keep using that hose to suck up the oil and bring it on tankers. They were sucking up about 3,000 barrels a day from what I remember. That's better than none.
Is UNG setting up to make a fifth wave, going down to $6.90 and then rising above $7.50 once again? That would be the fifth swing trade for me, as I would be buying it again at $6.90. I am beginning to like these predictable UNG waves. :) I can't shake off the feeling that the only way for UNG to break out of this corridor is to the upside, going to $8.50 at least.
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteI see no reason UNG cannot be in the 12 range if not higher by next January. This spill is going to cause policy change?. Like you I have been buying below 7.00 and selling at 7.49. At some point I will build up a core position to hold into the winter. When UNG did not go below 6.70 during the flash crash that really showed me it has rock solid support at that level.
Bob
TOF,
ReplyDeleteMaybe. I know the Obama admin fast tracked the well, allowed it to be drilled by a ship flying a non-U.S. flag, allowing very little direct control/oversight. Obama allowed the well to go forward without the safety switch that may have saved the day. Now Obama is running from the oil spill and talking NONSENSE about holding BP to account. Tell that to the shrimp, fish and ultimately, people who are/will be choking on high test. Good thing he "did" the health care thing first. That policy perogative would be impossible now.
According to the Mayan calander this horror show comes to an end sometime in October 2011. Good thng too. Then we will get on with a "Life Without People" and the earth can slowly begin to cleanse itself without it's number one enemy, us:).
Mayan calendar? Is that when Cinco de Mayo does the flip flop and we drink tequila in October?
ReplyDeleteIf so then I'm for it.
As for Obama or anybody....I'm not voting for parties ever again. If we get a fricking commie with a brain and he (she) is willing to work for the people instead of the corporatocracy, he (she) get's my vote.
Bob, there is a caveat with UNG -- it is not guaranteed to track NGas prices over the next 9 months! If large storage injections keep happening and the fear of storage overfilling develops once again in September, then the prospects of a cold winter with high NG prices will only hurt UNG, as it will keep January futures pinned at $5+, while the November futures will be at $3. This will create a horrible contango that can eat away 40% of UNG *permanently* during the months of September, October and November. I am stimply *hoping* that this won't happen again, but the probability of that happening is definitely not negligible, as it already happened last Fall and the storage levels right now are as high as they were last year at this time.
ReplyDeleteGood points. That dreded Contango, yet I am anticipating a rally that has nothing to do with fundementals. Speculators falling over themselves to get long gas when it is the obvious surrogate to the drill, drill, drill mandate. A pendulum swing. All of the US off shore drilling is in danger. Two more months of oily dolphins, otters and beach bimbos will have an impact. I also like oil sands for this same reason even though its enviornmental impact is definately not insignificant.
ReplyDeleteMark, what do you think is happening with PXP today? Its chart is not correlated with oil or with XOM/CVX/etc -- it is just going down in a straight line. In their latest earnings call they said that they are not dependent on the off-shore drilling, but they are still getting hit hard today...
ReplyDeleteSomehow I think the drop in PXP today is due to the general disgust of investors with the drillers. So I figured "what the hell," and just sold a couple of August $19 PXP puts for $1.80 each.
ReplyDeleteSince the stocks were unable to manage a rally today, I just bought 1 SPY August $116 put for $1000.
ReplyDeleteI agree with the pro nat gas plays...did we ever decide which one(s) are most tethered to it? I don't particularly care for UNG.
ReplyDeleteI'm at Chucks office but I just added 1000 shares of PXP (19.55). I'll catch you guys at the bar.
ReplyDeleteI sure would like the opportunity to pick something up at a ridiculous bargain... Come on Mr. Market, we've got a dollar waiting on a dime here!
ReplyDeletePXP - Has their proposed offshore project been canceled and/or delay been fully realized?
ReplyDeleteanother stellar performance for the markets.
ReplyDeleteThese governments pulling in spending are in effect shorting the market, or least that's the message I'm currently perceiving.
ReplyDeleteCP, the proposed project for PXP was canceled in early May, so I would suppose that investors should have gotten over that by now. In their conference call, PXP said that this cancellation will not diminish their expected future profits in any way -- they weren't counting on this project when making their future estimates of doubling their oil production over the next 4 years. They said that they will simply divert their exploration efforts into multitudes of other potential projects.
ReplyDeleteBP - So they plan to "restart production" if the cap is successful?
ReplyDeleteThat's the message I seem to be hearing...
PXP - David, I thought they had borrowed some large sum of money in order to finance their GOM and Cali offshore projects?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, there's a big AH jump so I guess stops were run/or we just witnessed capitulation? Obvious short covering AH!
Interesting, this might be (or have been) the bargain I was hoping for today....
HP: "In cyberspace, no one can hear you scream!"
ReplyDeleteJJ - Silent recall! There's no limit to what large corporations will do if they think it's possible to take shortcuts and circumvent the system.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure there's another porno story involved here somewhere....
hey, it's off hours so can I ask you to check my video on facebook? I made it in my office today.
ReplyDeleteIt is a new application from twitter.
vb
Re:
ReplyDeletethe markets...
I stand ALone.
LONG gold (bullion) if and when it dips
new post
ReplyDelete