Bears are in control, me thinks. When the stimulus can no longer be continued, the eye of the storm will have passed and the hurricane will be upon us again. We didn't learn the lesson of "too much debt is bad", and will be punished severely for ignoring the 40 years of warnings.
WTF is our fucking Gov. thinking here?? Let's say some business had the potential to owe you 10's of billions of dollars. Would you do everything you could to run the market against that Co. and force them into bankruptcy? Or would you work behind the senses and make sure BP could survive long enough to pay off the debit? Dumb, dumb, dumb. If they go BK, what the fuck happens over the next few months. The whole thing goes into receivership. THAT would move things along.
You can now return to your regularly scheduled comment.
It's probably all about getting votes, not about what makes best economic sense? Or maybe BP's assets are the new stimulus and fair warning was given to shareholders today?
CORRECTION: It's about appearances in order to get votes. It is almost NEVER about real substantive actions to genuinely represent the people, and if that happens, it's purely by chance or accident. We are entering the season of divide the people with dead-end loser BS arguments and promise them anything with their own money. Couldn't we narrow it don to one weekend? We could run the hyperbole on Saturday and the Superbowl on Sunday, we could all stay drunk for two days and wake up with less of a hangover.
FF- In all honesty, I think a lot of people start off by thinking they can make a difference. Then they realize they get a free parking pass at JFK and it's all down hill from there :(
2nd - my thinking about not selling yesterday was that yesterday's action was all about back filling and getting as many people off the train before moving higher.
Of course, if it closes lower today and breaks 1,040, i'm wrong.
2nd - we're getting some initial evidence that the supposed slowdown going on in Europe isn't really impacting global economies. That's not to say it won't impact them going forward as some of those countries enact budget cuts, but we should probably take everything into context (i.e., consider the size of these countries in the context of the size of the global economy). People have been in a sell first and ask questions later mode and that tends to create buying opportunities.
Anyone hear Mario Gabelli this morning? He said one of those TOTALLY DISINGENUOUS things you sometimes hear from billionares.
Mario said "my grandchildren will be competing with the Chinese....."
BULLSHIT. Your grandchildren will be attend private schools and then an ivy league college, you will gift the federally approved max each year to each of your grandchildren, and ultimately, a large amount of your fortune will find it's way to them. They will live out their years in Maui or perhaps the south of France, never "working" a day in their lives. You know it and I know it.
FTWR - There was a comment a couple days ago about the need for communication infrastructure improvement. It didn't ring a bell the first time yesterday but I heard it again this morning (radio) at the light finally went off.
No further details available, sorry.
Local AP reporter goes diving in gulf, says he didn't witness any of the usual signs of life usually observed, there are definite problems in his opinion. Witnessed softball sized globs of oily goo floating in water, took him 30 minutes to clean oil off himself and from his teeth.
GS - I think we'd all be better off without them, there shouldn't be any companies out there large enough to control the direction of markets operating without full transparency.
But man GS is really gonna fly once the wiggle their way out of the mire (As they always have, god's on their side!).
Seems everyone has been skeptical for months and they've been right lately (it's easy being negative).
Toronto G-20 meeting on the 25th? Lots of talk about currency controls re: unfair trade practice subsidizing Chinese export industry.
On the one hand China would need to slow rate of T purchases and allow Yuan to rise. I can't imagine why they wouldn't, the remainder of the world needs a chance to work off debt. Commodities prices would improve in terms of a rising Yuan, which would tend to preserve some Chinese manufacturing advantage I'd expect.
No telling which way things go... China has the upper hand? China boycotting ore miners while western governments threaten trade tariffs.
Last year ore prices rose as a result of the stalemate.... Chinese steel was forced to break ranks and buy ore at market prices.
I love the volatility in PXP! I opened a small starter position at $25.60 and it collapsed immediately after that. Now, I sold July $25 covered calls against my shares at $0.95, and if they get executed, I'll close this trade at a gain! Of course, all other puts I've been selling on PXP will also expire in that event, so the total profit from PXP will actually be quite sizable in that event. Let's see how it goes... In the worst case, I have just reduced the cost basis of those shares by $1...
UNG is doing a good job discarding all the passengers from the Northbound train. I like riding in empty trains! I am almost ready to sell July $8 puts on it...
David - thanks, but I'm still down a bit on this trade overall because I bought at an average of 1,110 and sold at 1,070ish. I bought again at 1,060 so I probably need to get to 1,100 to break even.
My portfolio was up a little yesterday and is up even more today (thanks to the good UCO performance). A happy day like today is a good day to buy some protection. I just placed a buy limit order at $6.90 for one September $110 SPY put.
BTW I feel awful about that 16 year old girl apparantly lost at sea.
Having been "lost at sea" several times a mile or 2 off the coast of Cape Cod as a kid, I learned a healthy respect for the sea and it's power to crush you.
With all the explorers, all the pirates, and the fishermen and merchant marines who went down to Davey Jones' locker, what on earth makes a 16 year old girl (and more to the point, her parents) think she has the balls and know-how to pull it off?
This illustrates something wrong with today's world....We are ALL stars, thanks to American Idol. We are ALL potential record breakers and balloon boys.
What's been lost though is, we need our rock stars to be a little dangerous. Successful sailors are tough sun and rain-hardened swabs who only survive by being smart and experienced and ultimately, lucky.
What the fuck makes a 16 year old girl and her asshole parents think someone with no experience even had any business trying something like this?
Bears are in control, me thinks. When the stimulus can no longer be continued, the eye of the storm will have passed and the hurricane will be upon us again. We didn't learn the lesson of "too much debt is bad", and will be punished severely for ignoring the 40 years of warnings.
ReplyDeleteI didn't even notice till just now the action in BP. Man, how many portfolios has that falling knife sliced through?
ReplyDeleteI almost opened some shorts today.
ReplyDelete2nd- Take a look at RIG/APC. That's what took the market down, IMHO...if that's possible ;)
BP along with APC(part owner, right?) took the market down, RIG's association didn't help either.
ReplyDeleteOk...I'm going to rant here, so please skip.
ReplyDeleteWTF is our fucking Gov. thinking here?? Let's say some business had the potential to owe you 10's of billions of dollars. Would you do everything you could to run the market against that Co. and force them into bankruptcy? Or would you work behind the senses and make sure BP could survive long enough to pay off the debit? Dumb, dumb, dumb. If they go BK, what the fuck happens over the next few months. The whole thing goes into receivership. THAT would move things along.
You can now return to your regularly scheduled comment.
It's probably all about getting votes, not about what makes best economic sense? Or maybe BP's assets are the new stimulus and fair warning was given to shareholders today?
ReplyDeleteIt's ALWAYS about fing votes. God, I'm sick of it.
ReplyDeleteBTW...MOG is in the gulf right now for some "informal" meetings. He wouldn't tell me what they were for, but he's meeting with DC players.
ReplyDeleteI think you mentioned MOG was confident the relief well(s) would be a success, correct me if I'm wrong...
ReplyDeleteThey will work. He say's one is already running horizontally....much like my port :)
ReplyDeleteCORRECTION: It's about appearances in order to get votes. It is almost NEVER about real substantive actions to genuinely represent the people, and if that happens, it's purely by chance or accident.
ReplyDeleteWe are entering the season of divide the people with dead-end loser BS arguments and promise them anything with their own money.
Couldn't we narrow it don to one weekend? We could run the hyperbole on Saturday and the Superbowl on Sunday, we could all stay drunk for two days and wake up with less of a hangover.
FF- Brilliant!! Sign me up :)
ReplyDeleteFF- In all honesty, I think a lot of people start off by thinking they can make a difference. Then they realize they get a free parking pass at JFK and it's all down hill from there :(
ReplyDeleteWow...the ERU is really spiking...Hummmmm...
ReplyDeleteOnce again, we have max frustration:
ReplyDelete(a) BP and RIG both up around +3 right now (this in spite of a 'headline' story about 'BP shares plunging' in Europe?)
(b) SPX futes +11
(c) DJIA futes +100
I hope you get your rally today, tof.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteThe market stalled after trading higher.
The fact that it's having trouble rallying from oversold suggests that it remains vulnerable.
I'll spend a lot of time on the market--from the micro to the macro--later today in the chart show.
Honor your stops on existing shorts and wait for entries on new ones.
Futures are firm pre-market.
2nd - my thinking about not selling yesterday was that yesterday's action was all about back filling and getting as many people off the train before moving higher.
ReplyDeleteOf course, if it closes lower today and breaks 1,040, i'm wrong.
ATPG, ACAS and TLAB look interesting pre-mkt
ReplyDeletetof- Your scenario sounds reasonable. Certainly, anyone holding ultrashorts overnight is getting the usual cold water wake-up call.
ReplyDelete2nd - we're getting some initial evidence that the supposed slowdown going on in Europe isn't really impacting global economies. That's not to say it won't impact them going forward as some of those countries enact budget cuts, but we should probably take everything into context (i.e., consider the size of these countries in the context of the size of the global economy). People have been in a sell first and ask questions later mode and that tends to create buying opportunities.
ReplyDeleteTop 'o the morning to you Chicken!
ReplyDeleteHey everybody!
How are you today?
last 1/2 off FTWR off @ 3.99.
ReplyDeleteAnyone hear Mario Gabelli this morning? He said one of those TOTALLY DISINGENUOUS things you sometimes hear from billionares.
ReplyDeleteMario said "my grandchildren will be competing with the Chinese....."
BULLSHIT. Your grandchildren will be attend private schools and then an ivy league college, you will gift the federally approved max each year to each of your grandchildren, and ultimately, a large amount of your fortune will find it's way to them. They will live out their years in Maui or perhaps the south of France, never "working" a day in their lives. You know it and I know it.
shark- What he meant was his grandkids will be playing volleyball with the grandkids of Chinese billionaires.
ReplyDeleteIsn't it croquet?
ReplyDeleteNatty lotto in 5 minutes.
ReplyDeleteI'd sure like to see the VIX below 30 again.
ReplyDeleteI know you guys are all over it, but keep an eye on 3.28 for PAL.
ReplyDeleteFTWR - There was a comment a couple days ago about the need for communication infrastructure improvement. It didn't ring a bell the first time yesterday but I heard it again this morning (radio) at the light finally went off.
ReplyDeleteNo further details available, sorry.
Local AP reporter goes diving in gulf, says he didn't witness any of the usual signs of life usually observed, there are definite problems in his opinion. Witnessed softball sized globs of oily goo floating in water, took him 30 minutes to clean oil off himself and from his teeth.
GDX gaining even though gold is weak. If euro were to keep firming, should gold miners rise with equities or fall with gold?
ReplyDeleteI ask because I'm day-dreaming about picking up some UXG near $3, ha, ha, ha...!!!
Natty just flipped the bird to a so-so report.
ReplyDeleteMan, I can't find anything interesting. Flat, flat, flat...
ReplyDeleteAction in AONE right now....
ReplyDeleteTake a look at HEK. That's some snappy trading...
ReplyDeleteGS just keeps sinking, WTF is up there?
ReplyDeleteSTD flying again.
Can't find anything on AONE...
ReplyDeleteAONE - Navistar battery supply deal maybe?
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2010/06/08/a123-shares-gain-on-battery-supply-deal-with-navistar/?mod=yahoobarrons
GS...another request for information or something like that.
ReplyDeleteGS - I think we'd all be better off without them, there shouldn't be any companies out there large enough to control the direction of markets operating without full transparency.
ReplyDeleteBut man GS is really gonna fly once the wiggle their way out of the mire (As they always have, god's on their side!).
long rby
ReplyDeletetuned into that halftime show...EVERYONE is skeptical/bearish. everyone can't be right can they?
ReplyDeleteSeems everyone has been skeptical for months and they've been right lately (it's easy being negative).
ReplyDeleteToronto G-20 meeting on the 25th? Lots of talk about currency controls re: unfair trade practice subsidizing Chinese export industry.
On the one hand China would need to slow rate of T purchases and allow Yuan to rise. I can't imagine why they wouldn't, the remainder of the world needs a chance to work off debt. Commodities prices would improve in terms of a rising Yuan, which would tend to preserve some Chinese manufacturing advantage I'd expect.
No telling which way things go... China has the upper hand? China boycotting ore miners while western governments threaten trade tariffs.
Last year ore prices rose as a result of the stalemate.... Chinese steel was forced to break ranks and buy ore at market prices.
I love the volatility in PXP! I opened a small starter position at $25.60 and it collapsed immediately after that. Now, I sold July $25 covered calls against my shares at $0.95, and if they get executed, I'll close this trade at a gain! Of course, all other puts I've been selling on PXP will also expire in that event, so the total profit from PXP will actually be quite sizable in that event. Let's see how it goes... In the worst case, I have just reduced the cost basis of those shares by $1...
ReplyDeleteUNG is doing a good job discarding all the passengers from the Northbound train. I like riding in empty trains! I am almost ready to sell July $8 puts on it...
ReplyDeleteSo I get back just in time to see SPY tag it's opening high. Rolling over a little know. That high is what I'll be watching.
ReplyDeleteSPX 1087 and we have a whole new ball game.
ReplyDeleteERY at LOD...Watching for a scalp.
ReplyDeleteERY...nope. Checked too many "real" energy stocks and they all look really strong.
ReplyDeleteSPY breaking out here.
ReplyDeleteOn good volume bar....
ReplyDeleteteamonfuego, you must be smiling now. :) Good bet with you SPY, once again!
ReplyDeleteEveryone must be in a good mood now -- even the MON dog is jumping! :)
ReplyDeleteAONE...Ah...Navistar up grade might be it. Makes sense.
ReplyDeleteCE/V...very strong charts today.
ReplyDeleteOK Sharkie...What's the RBY trade?
ReplyDeleteAnother 1/3 off SD @ 6.62...At this rate all I'll be left with soon is a cup of sugar :)
ReplyDeleteMark, your sugar level has been rising recently, though. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - thanks, but I'm still down a bit on this trade overall because I bought at an average of 1,110 and sold at 1,070ish. I bought again at 1,060 so I probably need to get to 1,100 to break even.
ReplyDeleteMy portfolio was up a little yesterday and is up even more today (thanks to the good UCO performance). A happy day like today is a good day to buy some protection. I just placed a buy limit order at $6.90 for one September $110 SPY put.
ReplyDeleteThat order was just filled. :)
ReplyDeleteV/MA...imbalance on the buy side for V, sell side for MA...too funny.
ReplyDelete1087...:)
ReplyDeleteNext currency crisis British pound?
ReplyDeleteFXE anyone?
ReplyDeleteHey Mark,
ReplyDeleteThe "rationale" behind the RBY trade does not involve some macro-convolution involving predicting the future price of gold.
I am guessing that a trend-change is underway in the price of this company.
I "think" a double bottom may have been made and the price is about to break out.
A more prudent person would probably wait and see if the stock shows you more first.
There is an element of educated guessing about this business.
BTW I feel awful about that 16 year old girl apparantly lost at sea.
ReplyDeleteHaving been "lost at sea" several times a mile or 2 off the coast of Cape Cod as a kid, I learned a healthy respect for the sea and it's power to crush you.
With all the explorers, all the pirates, and the fishermen and merchant marines who went down to Davey Jones' locker, what on earth makes a 16 year old girl (and more to the point, her parents) think she has the balls and know-how to pull it off?
This illustrates something wrong with today's world....We are ALL stars, thanks to American Idol. We are ALL potential record breakers and balloon boys.
What's been lost though is, we need our rock stars to be a little dangerous. Successful sailors are tough sun and rain-hardened swabs who only survive by being smart and experienced and ultimately, lucky.
What the fuck makes a 16 year old girl and her asshole parents think someone with no experience even had any business trying something like this?
Talk about parents not setting boundaries:)
Hey Shark- Thanks! Do you know anything about the Co.?
ReplyDelete