Friday, June 11, 2010
6/12/10 Working Hard/Hardly Working
People see you having fun
Just a-lying in the sun
Tell them that you like it this way
It's the work that we avoid
And we're all self-employed
We love to work at nothing all day
Doing nothing can be hard work. I can testify to that. Staying in touch with the markets while remaining outside can result in a ----load of 'what ifs.' I finally learned to tune out my regrets over lost opportunities by giving equal weight to the opposite scenario- ie, the potential losses I likely avoided.
Overall, I'm pleased with my 'performance' this week- no change in portfolio balance.
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CADC - One for us to watch? Trades a little thin but who thinks China might continue growing?
ReplyDeletePID - Drugs are definitely part of the feedback loop these days, the integral component for some and others possessing "self control", the proportional component.
BTO - 2nd - Something about that song I always did like, used to put the top down and cruise the hills with that thing booming.
ReplyDeleteIt's the cadence- perfectly constructed sequence of rhythm and chords.
ReplyDeleteJB- Your not following the bouncing ball :) I sold it at 6.17. Bought back in @ 5.12 I think, sold those @ 4.99 and re-entered today @ 4.84.
ReplyDeleteMight be safe to take the tax loss here. Book the loss, wait 31 days and re-buy the shares. I really don't expect to much too happen over the next month.
Anyone notice the same 'hop-skip-jump' pattern to the ultrashorts today? When trading counter-trend, it actually pays to STAY AWAY from the whippersnappers.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, when trading WITH the trend, I would imagine the ultras hop-skip-jump in your favor.
Either way, odds favor clearing them off by EOD.
hi my friends. Just checkin in
ReplyDeletelove
vb
it's a dinasaur out there
ReplyDeletegood to be home
2nd- Funny, but we were both watching ERY yesterday at the same time. I posted about it right at the levels you were talking about. Didn't pull the trigger though.
ReplyDeleteWhere you been my dear???
ReplyDeleteI sure hope marine life in the Gulf isn't going the way of the dinosaur.
ReplyDeleteI think it was 'Pat' who pointed out in one of the closing reports that the majority of day trading gains the past few months have been made on overnight holds. Ie, the following day's gap up or gap down was the trade. If you weren't already holding, too bad. Well, how many day traders hold overnight? Most are in cash by the close.
ReplyDelete'Calling a Bear a Bear'
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/109759/calling-a-bear-a-bear?mod=retire-planning
'According to Bespoke Investment Group, there have been 58 "corrections" of 10% or more in the Standard & Poor's 500 since 1927. In 33 cases, the corrections stopped short of the 20% bear market threshold and the market went on to higher highs, while 25 times they grew into a full-grown grizzly.
'But in the 32 instances when the market has dropped as much as this one has the outcome has been heavily weighted to the losing side. Only seven times drops of that size stopped short of the 20% bear mark. In the 25 other times the decline extended to 20%, the average bear market decline was 35.5%.'
hi.
ReplyDeletereal busy..
miss everyone
DO NOT EAT THE SEA FOOD
It's what, day 3 of the Gov. race in Ca. and Brown has already compared Whittman to Joseph Goebbels. Great...And Whittmen has said she'll spend whatever it takes to win. Great....
ReplyDeleteWow...now Texas and Oklahoma are joining the PAC 10.
ReplyDeleteGood one. That's like adding Leonard Cohen and Miles Davis to Country Music's Top Ten.
ReplyDeleteWhittmen - I'll bet the voters (or press) believe she will spend more if they answer polls in her favor and so they just want to see how much they can get her to spend.
ReplyDeleteThe danger is someone might have a closet full of skeletons specially prepared for election eve.
I don't know any of the candidates and have no opinion, just like to think in evil twisted ways...
TM - Pretty near 52 wk lows, how much longer can that last before buzzards show up?
ReplyDeleteWonder how the Chevy Volt project is coming along?
ReplyDeleteA very interesting letter by John Mauldin tonight. Below are some quotes from it:
ReplyDelete"The two decades of lower economic volatility have been called "The Great Moderation." We believe that going forward higher economic volatility, combined with a secular downtrend in economic growth, will create more frequent recessions. ... The closer trend growth is to zero and the higher volatility is, the more likely US growth will frequently dip below zero."
"More frequent recessions and stubbornly high unemployment rates mean that recoveries will not be long-lasting enough to put everyone back to work who would like to work. This in large part explains why high unemployment is currently so problematic."
"For longer-term investors, this change of paradigm will mean achieving consistent returns is even more difficult. However, investors with a shorter-term, more tactical outlook may find these new, more volatile conditions a source of great opportunities."
This means that my current strategy of scaling in into good companies when they get oversold, holding through hell if necessary, and then scaling out when each share lot rises above its purchase price should do very well in this environment. It also means that those who want to go long should wait for a nice multi-month decline in the stock market and enter when the expectation of the next recession becomes fully priced in. In this case, S&P at 1000 might not be a bargain -- long-term investors should only start scaling in VERY GRADUALLY at 1000, fully expecting S&P to drop to 800 over the next year, as the market fully prices in the next recession in 2011 (John Mauldin made a very compelling case for such a recession last Friday: http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/06/04/there-s-a-slow-train-coming.aspx).
Hi vb, how's it going?
ReplyDeleteI think I speak for all of us by saying we miss you!
Hope everything's going your way...
Green close 20 pts. - Great call, sharkie!
ReplyDeleteJust got an e-mail from a buddy that's at a local bar for the game. Budweiser's are 50 cents and Guinness are 20 bucks! That's beautiful!!
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ReplyDelete