Sunday, June 13, 2010
6/14/10 These Days/ SIMAGA
I've been out jogging
I don't do that much blogging these days
These days
These days I sit on corner stones
And count the time in quarter tones to ten
Don't confront me with my setbacks
I have not forgotten them
I'm getting tired of spelling out 'Sell in May and go away,' so I'm going to refer to it as SIMAGA. I'm going to then turn the acronym into a verb, another standard practice these days, and say I've just SIMAGAed myself for the week. I may even SIMAGA myself for the balance of the summer, reentering the market only in the event of a serious sell-off. Which I may refer to as AGAMIS.
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There's a thread over at CC re. "The BP undersea gusher may be unstopable". MoKat's post(#64459) was quite interesting. We may be in some deep stuff...
ReplyDeleteHope everyone had a great weekend. I couldn't imagine mine any better!! This is the current post at SOH by "bifferman", whom I consider a reasonable dude. The charts wont copy, but this is the text.
ReplyDelete" A Simple Long-Term Trading Plan (by Biffermas)
What’s the appropriate answer to this question?
“Hey, you’re really into investing, aren’t you? My broker stinks and I’m thinking about taking control of my retirement account. Can you teach me this?”
In the last several months three separate non-trading friends have approached me with the same question. I really didn’t have a good answer for them beyond, “Uhhhh” (and secretly, “Grooooaaaaan”). I hate giving investment advice for obvious reasons: the process is fraught with peril and the motivations / expectations of those who ask is unclear.
I’ve given the matter much thought, and I’ve transformed my own long-term trading plan into a simple system that many people can use. It has the following advantages:
1. It gives clear, objective signals.
2. It outperforms the broad markets.
3. It keeps you on the right side of momentum for the majority of moves.
4. It provides the signals for taking partial-profits, hedging, and putting additional capital to work.
This system has three levels. Permanent links for these charts are here, here, and here.
Big Picture View: 13/34 EMA Weekly Crossover. The parameters are simple: Go long when the 13 is more enthusiastic than the 34, and reverse to short when a bearish cross occurs. This very seldom generates signals, and they tend to remain patent for years. According to the plan, this chart alone dictates major portfolio positions and should not be gamed / faded.
Long term final
Intermediate View: The Ratio Adjusted NYSE Summation Index. This one I learned from somebody on the Slope forum (I don’t remember who!). This provides excellent signals and serves as the framework for hedging, profit taking, and putting additional capital to work. Although a wonderful “tell” of short to intermediate-term directional change the timing can be fuzzy by 1-2 weeks and requires a third signal before acting.
Intermed final
Short term view: Daily 3/10 EMA crossover. This is merely used to confirm the intermediate view and serves as the trigger for entry. Both higher time frames *must* be in agreement first.
Short term final
One additional level you can add is a 3/10 EMA crossover on a 60-minute chart, located here. With all four in agreement, it's a very good way of stacking the odds in your favor.
All four have triggered long signals as of Friday's close, and barring a hideous gap Monday morning, I'm putting money to work! Remember to use stops! I'm placing mine underneath Friday's low.
Kinda tired of watching the same old movies. Any recommendations?
ReplyDeleteI happened to watch three decent ones in a row this weekend:
ReplyDelete(a) Crazy Heart (2009)- Jeff Bridges as an alcoholic over-the-hill country singer.
(b) Law Abiding Citizen (2009)- Mixed reviews from critics, but I loved it. Gerard Butler in kind of the same 'role' as Mel Gibson in Edge of Darkness.
(c) Alpha Dog (2007)- Justin Timberlake and Emile Hirsch in a disturbing drama based on a true story.
(c)
Thanks 2nd!
ReplyDeleteMy only note about the markets is ES/CL and the Euro ( which is now /E6 ) are above important pivot points. Tomorrow morning I'm sure they will be below them :)
I just looked at the IWM chart over the past month and it is currently touching the top of the steeply declining trendline that connects the tops of the rebound rallies since late April. If this pattern keeps up, IWM should decline sharply during the coming week. So I have just placed a buy stop limit order for 200 shares of TWM at $21/$21.05, exactly the price at which I sold 200 shares of TWM a few weeks ago when the first sharp drop in the equities has run its course.
ReplyDeleteIWM - I see the upper trend line is currently @ $67, and IWM looks about to move up through the 20DMA.
ReplyDeleteIWM futures are up 0.7% right now, so my buy stop limit on TWM is a low-risk order. If IWM keeps moving up, the order won't get triggered. On the other hand, if it DOES get triggered, then IWM has BIG problems, and I want to be in TWM in that scenario.
ReplyDeleteMore max frustration. Interesting how an acronym for max frustration ends up being identical to the acronym for the standard expression used when confronted with max frustration.
ReplyDeleteI love stuff like this:
ReplyDeletePut this on a "post-it" note by your monitor.
Submitted by QT (238 comments) on Mon, 06/14/2010 - 08:40 #64476
Been watching a trader who does extensive work with price and time patterns using fibonacci timing calculations. He was correct with his call of the May 25th low [was off by 0.26pt] and the May 26th high in advance. For some time now he has been calling for a turning point on the 14th but until the 7th wasn't sure which way. He has made the following call.
"the 34th day is on Monday Jun 14, also the 89th fibo hour [14:15] is on Jun 14. we might have a little unfinished business in terms of time. upside is a little above 1100, i guess 1101. the next turn day is 55th on Jul 13, should be a substantial low, my target is spx 820"
Also I been following a technique called T-bar which uses cycles to form a T shape on the price charts that predicts the time of a turning point for that index or stock. A significant turning point has been predicted for sometime now for June 14th @ 11:00. The T-bar time predictions tend to be off a little bit on the time either by a few mins or even an hour maybe 2.
Anyhooooo.... something to watch for today. We will know either way by EOD if they were right.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Dave Landry's 10 Best Patterns & Strategies is available at:
www.davelandry.com/books.htm
The trend remains down.
So far, the market only appears be pulling back from its recent
lows.
Unfortunately, for the trend traders, lately the market has traded
mostly sideways.
I still think the short side is the way to play it. However, as
usual, honor your stops on existing shorts and wait for entries on
new ones.
I'm seeing quite a few setups in Retail. I'm also seeing a setup or
two in a variety of other areas.
Futures are firm pre-market.
2nd - re QT comment... check out the link
ReplyDeletehttp://humblestudent777.blogspot.com
Kyle- It's easy to see how one could really get into this stuff. I can't put money on it ahead of time, but I sure hope they're right.
ReplyDelete2nd- Google is truely amazing...all I did is type in a phrase from what QT provided and found the 'humblestudent' blogspot. Haven't had time to look it over yet. If you go to the guy's 'time-space relativity system' page on LHS, he seems to be saying SPX H&S pattern is complete. Others believe the pattern will complete when SPX goes into the 1130-1150 lvl. Sooooooo many ways for these patterns to complete...
ReplyDeleteI am not wildly bullish here.
ReplyDeleteRed close.
CADC - Nice pop there, will she come back to me?
ReplyDeleteBid@ $3.54
nsu looking interesting....
ReplyDeleteKyle- I think the 'humblestudent' handle makes it less likely the guy is off his rocker. Better than 'EW surfer dude,' anyway.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Can she hold the 50DMA?
ReplyDeletePAL - The 20DMA?
U$D off 1% helps!
6/11 Nevsun Resources issues statement "that it is not aware of any material undisclosed development that would cause the significant upward movement of the Company's share price"
ReplyDeleteRed close?
ReplyDeleteLooks like I got me head up me ass again!
Please disregard:)
1100-1105 has been a double top area. Will it be a triple?
ReplyDeleteCan S&P retake the SMA50 this week?
ReplyDeleteIsn't this all about corporate profits, how are those doing?
GMO= Looking great.
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Buzzards chowing down.
ReplyDelete2nd- i'm long but i don't think red is a terrible call yet. we have seen 30 points moves (top to bottom) for a while now.
ReplyDeletedepending on how today wraps up i might be closing some of my longs.
Will PAL show a profit this quarter? That would rocket the stock don't you think?
ReplyDeleteConsidering a great way to short China is through commodities, wouldn't the opposite be true?
ReplyDeleteConsidering how China small caps have been beaten up, I'd have to conclude it's time to go long.
Somehow I have the impression our market's been down partly because China's been down.
Chicken,
ReplyDeleteWhen is PAL gonna announce the quarter?
At the close....
ReplyDeleteSharkie,
ReplyDeletePAL - I suspect they'll announce in the first half of August, some feel this quarter may show some improvement and others feel it's too early. If the stock does rally into the announcement, I'm thinking of taking the gain.
Could be nearly a double this year? Wouldn't that be a pisser!
'Stocks Party Like It's 2009, but Soros Sees Ghosts of the '30s'
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/stocks-party-like-it%27s-2009-but-soros-sees-ghosts-of-the-%2730s-503520.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,FXE,BP,XLE,FAZ,OIL&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Proof markets are often 72 hours or more lagging reality:
ReplyDelete"China exports blast past market forecast 6/9/10"
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE65805R20100609
"Soros Sees Ghosts of the '30s'"
ReplyDeleteI call it envelope delay distortion, crystal balls tend to produce aberrations in fringe areas... mix with that a pinch of imagination and small quantities of magic pixie dust....
Lack of bad news is good! Here's today's song, the first verse goes like this:
ReplyDelete"Euro up, gold & dollar down/ Come'on oil & copper rebound!"
Nat Gas - I'll bet Pickens is pretty pleased, wonder if he's singing a song?
2nd - Have you considered CADC? I think it's well worth a shot if you can catch it before it shoots up too much.
ReplyDeleteI was hoping to see a lower price but that's not looking like it will happen and I'm already plenty long on other stuff.
opened a small position in BGZ at $15.
ReplyDeleteEven TM's getting a bid today.
ReplyDeleteMON seems to be basing here, and a run to $55+ seems to be highly likely. I just bought a couple of July $52.50 calls on MON for $1.25 each. Placed a sell limit order on them at $2.50.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 100 shares of TWM at $20.04, to just to be able to say that I reloaded TWM $1 cheaper than I sold it a few weeks ago (at $21). :) I still have the buy stop limit order for 200 shares of TWM open at $21/21.05.
ReplyDeleteJust picked up 1000 shares of TZA for a day trade at $6.62 and placed a sell stop order at $6.58.
ReplyDeletePicked up 1000 more shares at $6.62 and added them to the sell stop order at $5.58.
ReplyDeleteAlso, placed a sell limit order for 1000 shares of TZA at $6.67, so as to take partial profits on the breakout.
ReplyDeleteKyle- Your earlier post leads to a strategy I hadn't thought of before.
ReplyDeleteLet's say I initiate longs via mutual funds, and I awake one morning to a major rally. Right now, I'm usually left 'hoping' the rally persists into EOD, allowing me to close out the positions.
However, I could theoretically 'lock in' gains by simply opening a matching short position. I could use either a 1x short like SH, or open a 3x at 1/3 position size. In fact, if I had limited funds with which to hedge, a 3x would work out nicely.
Similar to buying a put to protect the downside??
ReplyDeleteMan, that was close. For a few minutes, the bid on TZA rested at $5.58 (my stop level), but my stop order still did not get triggered. After that, TZA has produced a new bar that just kept growing, and growing, and growing, until it hit my sell limit order at $6.67! Nice. :) So now I only have 1000 shares of TZA left (which I picked up at $6.62), and I just moved up my stop order to $6.62, so as to make sure that I don't turn a profit into a loss. At the same time, I am placing a sell limit order for these shares at $7.72.
ReplyDeleteThat's right. If I open an SPX short at the morning high (while holding essentially an SPX long via mutual funds in the buy-and-hold), I've locked in my gains at the morning high.
ReplyDeleteDavid- No lack of daily excitement on your part, I see. Happens a lot to me at the craps table. If I sense the beginning of a winning streak, but get stuck waiting for a low odds point to hit, I sometimes start placing Come bets on successive rolls to the point where I have money riding on almost any number.
ReplyDeleteTZA has just hit my sell limit at $6.72 for 1000 shares I picked up at $6.62, for a gain of $100 on this batch and $50 on the previous batch that I sold at $6.67. $150 may seem like a small gain for some of you, but that's 3 bottles of Nadurra for me! :) Or 2 nice sushi dinners for my family.
ReplyDeleteI would say shark's call for a red close just drove over the 50/50 line.
ReplyDeleteDavid- ANY gain is a gain! Keep in mind that the sizes of losses on larger portfolios tend to keep pace with the sizes of gains.
ReplyDeleteHave been reviewing some of Vad's trades (and it's nice that he is including more charts in his EOD logs). Many are (as one would probably expect) correlated w/ SPX movement. Take the last few minutes...inverted C&H for SPX (1097.5 break) so BGZ, TZA & DRV have a C&H appearance. But the pattern could have completed another way as in Fri w/ 1080 lvl and EOD buying in SPX
ReplyDeleteHNU.TO has already approached within a "walking distance" of my sell limit order at $7.70 (for 700 shares I reloaded at $6.70 when UNG pulled back below $8). A small intraday spike tomorrow, and I am there. :) That will be a $700 profit already -- a more decent figure. :)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-slashes-greece-to-ba1-from-a3-2010-06-14-1314390
ReplyDeleteAdded to my BGZ position and now have an average at $15.06. Like what 2nd was saying, I moved into this to lock in gains on my SPY index fund, which I plan on closing at today's close. I also sold some MBLX at $14.9 that I bought at $14.15 on Friday (I think).
ReplyDeleteI believe we will see a move down to 950 on S&P soon. We will almost assuredly test 1,040 again in my mind.
Of course, my opinion can change quickly.
TZA- After reading David's reference to Nadurra, I took a 'WTF' flyer on it at 6.67, and sold it at 6.75. Thus allowing me to stop at BevMo this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteRed close? I doubt it.
ReplyDeleteCP- We have 80 minutes left. Anything can happen.
ReplyDeleteGood job, 2nd_ave! :)
ReplyDeleteHobos (and other unskilled contractors) in Russia sometimes have to do hard labor for hours in order to earn a bottle of cheap vodka (in remote areas of Russia no one needs rubbles -- vodka is the main currency), and they would only define as HEAVEN the environment where one can earn a good bottle of Nadurra with a few mouse clicks in a matter of minutes. Just to put things into perspective...
Now have a pretty big position in BGZ at average of $15.18.
ReplyDeleteHmmm. Greece down grade, and a pretty good pull back, now 50% regained. Is a Greek default all ready priced in?
ReplyDeleteQuick guess, Fin Reg breaks this thing one way or the other.
ReplyDeleteTrying to pick up some more V at S2. (74.58)
ReplyDeleteHNU.TO has decided that it doesn't want to wait until tomorrow before staging a major rally. It has already come close enough to my sell limit order at $7.70, and so I just sold manually my 700 shares at $7.61, so as to get it out of my head (and not worry about it coming within a penny of my sell limit and then collapsing, as it happened with UNG a few weeks ago). The total profit on this trade is $600 after accounting for the high transaction costs in ETrade global trading, and now I need to find better uses for this money then buying a case of Nadurra. :)
ReplyDelete2 cases?
ReplyDeleteV filled on the 2nd dip down.
ReplyDeleteThat's a fine thought, Mark! :)
ReplyDelete1/2 off SGG @ 45.02. 15% return.
ReplyDeleteI feel a billion fingers on the sell button and a billion+one fingers on the buy button.
ReplyDeleteWill Congress call Wall Street's bluff?
shark, your call for a red close today seems to be right on the money, after the small rebound in indices 30 minutes ago did not work out.
ReplyDeleteGood trade on SGG, Mark! You showed more patience than me with it and got rewarded rightfully. Are you planning/hoping to pick it up again at $40 during the next pullback?
ReplyDeleteThanks David. Yep, but I'd be surprised if it got that low. A pull back to the 50 maybe? The chart looks real good. Not much in the way of the 100. (50.63)
ReplyDeleteV @ 73.75.
ReplyDeleteshark- Even though you hedged your bets, I still give you credit for your first take. First takes are usually the best.
ReplyDeleteThe high of the day for HNU.TO was $7.63, and so it would not have hit my sell limit at $7.70. In this light, my "manual" sale of HNU.TO at $7.61 was definitely a good decision, as it locked in my desired gain without the risk of waiting until tomorrow. If HNU.TO keeps rallying tomorrow, I'll be just as happy, as I still have 800 shares of it left (which I picked up at $6) and I am moving up my original sell limit order for it from $8 to $8.50, just to space out my "scaling out" steps a little.
ReplyDeleteFickle fk'rs!
ReplyDeleteBen Bernanke bet the buck on a bunch of fickle fk'rs?
ReplyDeleteIllini, are you still holding your UNG? If you had a stop at $8, then I hope you re-entered UNG in the low 8's after your stop was hit...
ReplyDeleteSounds like a nursery rhyme or maybe a fairy tale!
ReplyDeleteHey David,
ReplyDeleteYou know I pulled it straight out of my ass, but it is the center of the universe, right?:)
Shark
BTW it's been said that the market opens down in order to go up, and opens up in order to go down.....
ReplyDeleteshark -- Do you have any opinions on what this guy is doing (looks like compressing the 'past' time-line almost log style to get to a H&S) is valid???
ReplyDeletehttp://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2010/06/time-space-relativity-system.html
"BTW it's been said that the market opens down in order to go up, and opens up in order to go down....."
ReplyDeleteBut the question is: does it go down in order to go up the next day? :)
Man, that reminds me so much of old dealers at craps tables calling out stuff like 'Five! The field comes alive after a five!' (The rationale being, I suppose, that the odds of making money on a field bet increase after after rolling a non-field number like five- I've taken mental notes on that one, and of course it's bullshit.)
ReplyDelete