Wednesday, June 16, 2010
6/16/10 Help Me Make It Through The Night
I don't care what's right or wrong
I don't try to understand
Let the devil take tomorrow
Lord, tonight I need a friend
Yesterday is dead and gone
And tomorrow's out of sight
And it's sad to be alone
Help me make it through the night
Anyone who's held an ultrashort overnight can identify. Watch the ES tick higher. Pretend you don't care. Return an hour later. ES up another few points. WTF, man. Help me make through the night.
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cheapy- If I'd made a few grand today, I'd be taking the family out to dinner.
ReplyDeleteNaaaa, I made potato soup.
ReplyDeleteI put real meat in it this time :)
Come on, man. Vichyssoise, at least.
ReplyDeleteAnd two bottles of white.
ReplyDeleteI was once a "value investor", buying things I thought were beaten down. Then I saw that the Fed has the ability to unintentionally destroy all value and confidence in anything and everything, just by playing with the value of the dollar.
ReplyDeleteAfter seeing that, I will never, ever hold any large position in anything but gold or silver as long as I live. I can't even imagine trying to buy things when yields are as low as they are, expecting the prices to rise further, just on the basis that the Fed and Government will borrow/print enough more that some greater fool will come along more desperate than I to find something he thinks will go up, and buy the shares from me at a higher price, in anticipation of finding a yet greater fool another day in the future.
I was a fool to believe it all once. I won't make that mistake again. I just got lucky taking the chips off the table when I had big profits. It could just as easily have been that I might have been holding stocks into those panics, and then I'd be as bad off as everyone else.
Daytrading, collecting profit, paying the taxes, paying life's expenses, and moving a bit of the leftover profit each time to real metal seems to me the way to approach this game. As long as I have faith in the continuation of 5000 years of history where gold has always been a store of value, I'll be able to hang on.
Not even a beer....
ReplyDeleteBut to be honest, we had some frozen strawberries languishing in the deep freeze, and I got my son to make us real milkshakes with real ice cream for dessert.
We aren't starving here. We just live frugally :)
Hey, I'm also frugal these days. Those bottles of white only run 1.99 each at TJ's. And vichyssoise just takes a few potatoes, cream, leeks, and onions.
ReplyDeleteTook my 8-yr-old to see The Karate Kid this morning (matinee). (Yeah, I'm on 'vacation' this week.)
ReplyDeleteI probably enjoyed it as much as he did.
2nd- Is it a re-make? My kids might like that also.
ReplyDeleteIt's a remake, but with a 12-year-old playing the lead. And Jackie Chan is more believable than Pat Morita in the role of martial arts instructor. I think the entire family would enjoy it.
ReplyDeleteI think I'll take a well earned nap... G'Nite all...
ReplyDeleteThe review I heard recommended K. Kid, said kids and adults would enjoy it, very well done.
ReplyDeleteThe little guy really got into it. Let's face it- all kids over the age of 3 know about bullying at school. And love seeing the underdog learn to fight back.
ReplyDelete2nd- Thanks. Sounds good to me also. It's a great story.
ReplyDeleteCheapy - I can certainly identify with your concerns, just look what they did to housing! They claim they didn't see the bubble, any complete moron knew something was wrong, I don't know how many times I wondered how the heck people could afford so much. Just before the bubble popped, Citibank was all over this area trying to recruit an army of 90-day refinance wonder gurus. The conclusion was always the same, now I know for sure.
ReplyDeleteMan....US Open, World Cup, NASCAR in Sonoma, what's a sports fan to do :))
ReplyDeleteYou're supposed to be reviewing charts, remember?
ReplyDeleteYeah...I know. I'm kinda sliding into your camp though now. Unless we get a trend that I'm comfortable trading in, I might just cash out the longs I have right now. I'm not going to let the market ruin my families summer.
ReplyDeleteIt would be wrong if I posted a picture of my 2 year old taking batting in our living room with nothing on but a baseball cap...wouldn't it??
ReplyDeleteMark- I have confidence in your sense of propriety. If you feels it's OK to post, go ahead.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to the Asian indexes? All was well an hour ago, and now investors have decided to start taking profits?
ReplyDeleteYou better project into the future and ask your 2 year old at 16. I'm thinking you may want to crop it strategically. We want the authorities to know this is a trading blog....and besides, it's your blog Mark, we don't want to have to testify on your behalf.....just so you can post.
ReplyDeleteWhen we were kids nobody gave a crap. I thought we were supposed to leave a better world for our kids. Are we F_ _ _-ups or what?
Anyone have the slightest idea WTF yesterday's CC closing report was about? Are they like celebrity obituaries where they are written way ahead and issued when it happens? Or are they drinking the oil? Crazy stuff.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by teamonfuego (2094 comments) on Thu, 06/17/2010 - 09:02
For what it's worth, the BDI printed a lower low for the first time in a while and the index has basically fallen off a cliff the past month or so:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDI...
So do you think this explains the price action with FXP? Are you looking to go short?
Landry:
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
A flat day in the indices.
Everybody and their bother had to own stocks on Tuesday but Wednesday was a shoulder shrug.
I still think the market has the potential to resume its recent slide from its current overbought condition. That's my story and
I'm sticking to it.
However, again---It's a one day at a time environment. Hopefully,
it'll do something other than trade in a range like it has been
lately.
I'm still seeing quite a few setups on the short side. Retail and Oil Service seem to be providing the best looking opportunities.
I received a lot of questions this week: stop placement, discretion, determining overbought/oversold, Bowties etc.... I'll do
my best to cover it all later today.
Futures are firm pre-market.
Ugly manf. #. 8 V 22.
ReplyDeleteFF - I don't know about FXP, but I'm 90% short the market and 10% in cash. I honestly think short anything would work.
ReplyDeleteI know technicals say different but at some point we need to pay homage to what is going on with the economy. The past several economic reports have been pretty atrocious, starting with the GDP and Jobs reports several weeks ago. I know people point to this and that technical level as being supported and what not, but i'm seeing flashing red lights.
Nice pop down on leading indicators/Philadelphia Fed report.
ReplyDeleteMan, I don't miss any of this ---t.
I'm outside the casino, and waiting for a real drop. Which looks like it may be coming.
Good morning all!
ReplyDeleteAssuming PAL reaches $3.47 today, I'll off my 1000 shares on someone else for a slightly lower reload.
FF- I was thinking along the same lines. Too bad...it's really funny/cute. Oh well, I'll save it to bribe him with when he gets older :)
ReplyDeleteCP- R1 for PAL today is 3.45. That might be a good exit #.
ReplyDeleteC is at the magic $4 number again.
ReplyDeleteI say a fairly good Natty report.
ReplyDeleteGuys,
ReplyDeleteYou can't generalize about an exit the way you both are doing.
What matters is the context of the move. What are futures doing? What is the market doing?
Pivot points are another issue, but you have to know the way pivots work. As you can imagine, they work many different ways depending on the context of the situation.
Specifically, Chicken, you can't presume that a move to 3.27 makes sense to sell, even though it did the past couple of times it got there.
Mark, a pivot point is made to be blasted through and not sold when the context is right.
Now today, with palladium dropping and the market having issues there's no way in hell that PAL is going to or back to 3.47, aint gonna happen.
Here are my trading rules.
I buy what's moving right, and am willing to be patient/suffer price reversals IF the overall buy/sell is a sound one. I sell what is moving wrong, provided that I am fairly sure that I will have other/better opptys to enter. Today for example is a summer thursday with grilled Hayward on the menu for lunch. BTW "the small people" comment is hilarious. These BP aristocrats, the upper-class Englishmen are SO out of touch with humanity they can't even get out of their own way rhetorically.
So guys, the context dictates the action. Truth is, I have been trading around my PAL position very successfully this week, but I do not post every action because I don't want to unduly influence someone's action, particularly because I can and often am wrong too.
I have basically been buying PAL at around 3.35 and selling it around a dime higher all week.
Today we will get a nice crash I hope.
Shark- I actually agree with just about all of that. It's kinda how I trade on a longer time from. However, if CP was looking at an exit today at a specific price, I was simply pointing out the fact that the first resistance level (not pivot point) today was 3.45. I'll stand by that comment.
ReplyDeleteBad wind this morning, taking the wind out of Europe's sails too.
ReplyDeleteOh yeah Mark don't get me wrong.
ReplyDeleteThere are pivot points, and they sometimes are meaningful levels.
One more thing...It's funny, I find myself wondering with resource stocks "This chart looks good, but what about the underlying resource...how do I know if IT'S going up also?
Well, the charts of these mining companies often presage the moves in the resource, of course. It's fairly obvious but an important point.
Clearly, if one is swing or day trading, an exit even below the 3.47 level would, presuming a re-purchase occurs at/below that level, have been a good thing. I find though that the repo part can be hard. I find myself needing to see that it's good again and rebuying fairly close to my prior sell price, but at least you know it's going your way.
Today is a real enigma. I have a hard time seeing a green close. How about you guys?
Shark- I'm actually surprised we're not closer to 1100. That has the most open interest.
ReplyDeleteBTW, PAL got to 3.46 today.
ReplyDeleteI would have entered a market sell order (provided it was 3.45 bid or more) and been done with it.
So Mark's technical skills are getting sharper....
Tell me the Lilliputians aren't going to simply release the giant!
ReplyDeleteI would think a pivot point is a decent selling target when the market's weak and you're anticipating lower prices. You yourself have been trading these, it seems.
If you don't post your trades, you're not making money!?!?!
I really don't want to spend another summer sitting here watching prices rise and fall...
My gut says today and tomorrow are not right for going long...they are right for going golfing:)
ReplyDeleteThe market did a lot of work 1100-1125 in Nov-Dec 09. 1125 might require some work to retake. Also, end of Feb-early March
ReplyDeleteYet again...I'll have to leave long before any questions by BP get asked.
ReplyDeleteThe day isn't over yet, we could see much different prices by then.
ReplyDeleteGood volume analysis Kyle! I rely heavily on it.
ReplyDeleteHey Kyle,
ReplyDeleteYou're not still in GRS are you? Check it out
What's new brother?
I am not getting how the price of PAL is hanging in...we need, I hate to say, a screwdooly-woodly down to about 3.20 or better to prepare for the upmove.
Well...my big horse, V, is not letting me down. See you guys in a few.
ReplyDeleteNo I'm not...been looking at CDE, JAG, ATPG, CPE and (probably unwisely) LPX this morn
ReplyDeletePAL - Well obviously from a macro perspective $3.13 was as good an entry as one might have anticipated, I'm quite happy with the purchase. The 26-27th of this month feedback from the G-20 is going to move the market one way or the other I would think, which way will it be?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Permitting progress update within a month or so, I'm counting on positive results. Almost seems as if they're trying to shake out the weak hands, what's that old saying about idle time?
I was hoping UNG would crash after today's NG report and I will be able to reload HNU.TO under $7 again. No luck for me. :) So it looks like I'll just have to wait until my HNU.TO sell limit at $8.50 gets hit and then be out of NGas completely.
ReplyDeleteIf HNU.TO doesn't drop below $7, then it must rise above $8.50 soon, right? :) Either way I'll be a happy camper.
*******A little doggerel poetry********
ReplyDeleteI've got a dog named Solar
He won't fetch he won't sit up and beg
I've got a dog named Solar
All he does is lick his balls and hump my leg:)
I've got a dog named Solar
He don't sit up he don't lie down play dead
All he does is shit upon the carpet
And makes me wish I had a cat instead:)
Pussy, as in, feline MEEEEOWWWWWWWWWWW!
Texas titty:)
Why is UXG showing this surprising strength? It has WAY outperformed GLD in 2010, and has even WAY outperformed SLW, another PM star.
ReplyDeleteI just sold 500 more shares of UXG at $4.70, which leaves me with only 1500 shares. I am also placing sell limit orders for 500 shares each at $5, $5.50, and $6. I started scaling into UXG at $6 in 2007, so if I sell out all my shares at $6, then I'll end up with a large total profit on this UXG adventure, since I scaled in/scaled out of it MULTIPLE times over the past 3 years, making sure that I sell each share lot at above its purchase price.
Shark, wouldn't it be fun if ESLR shows the same behavior as UXG and rises 10-fold over the next few years, just like UXG rose 10-fold from the depths of its 2008 sell-off? I got lucky with UXG, so maybe I'll get lucky with ESLR as well? :)
ReplyDeleteGuys - You probably know by now I'm bearish so I'm sorry about the consistent bearish opinions. But here's one more! I am seeing a very close parallel between the action in the markets in 1929/30 and today. Check this out:
ReplyDelete1929 crash went from 352 to 198 on Dow; drop of 154 pts. Rebound went to 294 or 62% of the drop. 2007/8 crash went from 1576 to 666 or drop of 910. Rebound went to 1217 or rebound of 61% of the drop.
1930 subsequent initial drop went from 294 to 258, a drop of 36 points or 12 to 13%. The reflex rebound went to 275, recovering about 46% of the drop. In May the market dropped from 1217 to 1050, or a drop of 14% and 167 pts. If the reflex rebound holds like it did in 1930 then the top could be around 1,125. The rebound in 1930 lasted about a month. We're about 1.5 weeks in.
In 1930, after the reflex rebound the market tanked about 23% pretty quickly. If that were to happen from 1,125 then the drop would be down to 866.
I would keep an eye on these prior price patterns as a potential guide to future action.
Of course it would be fun.
ReplyDeleteI would hope to be involved as well.
David are you still in any UXG?
It's been good as you know.
Oh I see I didn't read it right.
ReplyDeleteYou have 1500 great job.
UXG - The Nevada mining tax was just shot down. Actually, the news was out on the 14th...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lasvegascitylife.com/articles/2010/06/17/opinion/coffee_and_outrage/iq_36458640.txt
one of these days (when we least expect it?)
ReplyDeletePAL is gonna break to the upside as have many other of these miners. Check out AUY BTW looks good.
If we're so hot on going green then somebodies got to get on the stick. I think it's more likely we'll see more emphasis on energy conservation.
ReplyDeleteLighter materials for transportation, such as thermoplastics or carbon-fiber resins, aluminum, etc. Batteries are so damn heavy, there's just no way to store electricity(once it's generated) without the weight. So we convert fossil fuels into electricity (not an efficient process), transmit it over wires (not an efficient process), then store it in a battery (not an efficient process).
My roof isn't large enough to mount the panels necessary to generate the quantity of power consumed by my home (I've done the math), let alone the complexities of storing it in batteries. We might eventually break even selling power back to the grid, or so we're told, but to replace the electrical infrastructure in this country with solar would require a mind-boggling amount of solar panel surface area.
The only alternative I can see might be nuclear based with improved safety technologies but I'm not convinced that's actually carbon reduction due to the carbon load from mining and processing of ore.
We need a technological game changer if we plan on ending our dependence on fossil fuels, it's just not here yet. Meanwhile, underdeveloped countries are growing their economies, adding to the carbon footprint.
TOF - So far, this "correction" is within the realms of normal market action isn't it?
ReplyDeleteChicken you still in RBY?
ReplyDeleteChicken - yep no doubt. the reflex rally seems pretty consistent as well. Probably has room for another 20 points on the S&P.
ReplyDeleteIts crazy how much prior patterns hold. Back in early May when the market hit the 200 DMA in the crash, I said it would most likely bounce, possibly as high as the 50 DMA because in prior corrections where it hit the 200 DMA, it always bounced and most of the time it hit the 50 DMA. It went directly to the 50 DMA and then dropped.
This market is trading on technicals and nothing else. if 80% of trading is via HFT then that makes perfect sense. They probably programmed in to buy until about 1,120 or so. I would expect a pretty significant drop in the markets soon.
On the flip side, take a look at the action in AAPL and BRK/A. Gotta give those stocks their due as they are quite strong.
LOL, RBY!
ReplyDeleteI should go back to investing.
ahhh...the old late day spike. something i feared for a while as i was short. well, in spite of excessively negative news/comments from all over the board, the markets managed to close green.
ReplyDeletei'm getting ready to bail on my shorts and head to the sidelines. i envy you, 2nd.
Sharkie - I never entered RBY, was considering it then decided no. RBY doesn't have production do they? I already have one miner like that, GMO.
ReplyDeleteThese miners just keep spiking and rolling over... going essentially nowhere.
ReplyDeleteS&P chart - When I look at this chart, I see a "W" pattern... Probably an illusion.
ReplyDeleteAlternative energy - All I've heard on the subject is a bunch of wind blowing from WDC... On a subject like this it takes decades after an accidental discovery before any advances occur. We haven't even had the accidental discovery yet as far as I'm aware...
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be one bit surprised to see 1300 on the S&P prior to year end but with all the negative economic news I can't imagine how.
ReplyDeleteThank God for HFT, huh?
teamonfuego:
ReplyDeleteAccording to Bill, the market usually has a positive bias during the options expiration week, and this month the timing for such a positive bias is perfect, since MANY people have loaded up on June puts (sold to them by the Big Boyz) and now the Big Boyz will pull the market up to see as many of those puts as possible expire worthless.
Bill has also observed that the week after options expiration is usually a down week, so my plan is to actually buy some September SPY puts tomorrow. If you want to reduce your short position, then maybe you should wait until Monday?
Check out the latest AMB number, updated today:
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
The Fed is definitely not eager to inject liquidity into the market, so DON'T FIGHT THE FED! I think TOF is right about S&P dropping below 1000 soon, and I think starting next week the market will resume its slide.
David - I haven't capitulated yet given my risk level is ok...i have all of my shorts in the SPY index fund (about 70% or so) and the rest in BGZ...my average is around 1,100. my close out level is around 1,135, maybe 1,140.
ReplyDeleteFrom Data Quick...
ReplyDeleteMedian home prices in Northern Ca. up 20% YOY. 35% from bottom. Middle and high end homes doing the heavy lifting.
Just heard that on KTVU. It's funny, 'cause I just drove by the tract LEN is doing here. Man, those are some big homes, and I thought to myself, shit, I hope their right. Maybe they are.
Mark, you do know that the median home price can rise in a certain area while the price of ALL homes in that area drops, right? Looking at the median price can be very misleading... There is a good reason as to why the homebuilder stocks have been underperforming the broad market for the past 2 months -- those guys care about the expected future price of each home they can build, and this expected price has already double dipped and is now close to the lowest point of March 2009.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Sure, but Northern Ca. is a pretty big sample, no? The new homes being built here will be on the market by the end of the summer. It will be interesting to see how they are priced. I'll drive by this weekend to get a closer look, but my guess is 700-800K for a small view lot, 3,500sf home.
ReplyDeleteLEN is also doing that HUGE project at Hunters Point in SF.
ReplyDeleteHA!!!! Damn, I was close. They are a little smaller than I thought. Here's the link to the development.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.lennar.com/New-Homes/California/San-Francisco-Bay-Area/Petaluma/Riverview
Mark, the median home price in the USA can rise while the price of EVERY home in the USA drops because the median home price heavily depends on the ratio of cheap vs. expensive homes that are being sold. Since the wave subprime defaults is receding and the new wave of prime/Alt-A/OptionARM defaults is rising, the ratio of homes sold keeps shifting toward the more expensive homes, which increases the median home price. This ratio is also shifting because the fraction of recent sales due to good-credit owners (those that bought medium to high-end homes) losing their jobs during the past year (there was a delay before their homes have actually hit the market, as the lenders first tried to work with them to modify their loans) is increasing.
ReplyDeleteIf you have a more accurate statistics for some NoCal areas, I would love to hear it. For example, for how much were the new homes of a certain size/quality were sold in a particular town a year ago, and for how much are similar new homes being sold in the same town now?
new post
ReplyDeleteDavid- I understand what your saying, and like I said, I sure hope LEN is right, 'cause I wouldn't take that risk. I don't have the type of data you are looking for, though I'm sure it could be found.
ReplyDeleteEither way, I like your take also. Cheap homes get snapped up first and the purge of owners out of their mid-priced homes that can't afford/want them is a healthy thing. The new owners are now passing very stringent credit apps, have a REAL appraisals, etc. Once those homes are in stronger hands, the gig is up and prices will rise.
nevada is the best
ReplyDeleteUXG - The Nevada mining tax was just shot down. Actually, the news was out on the 14th...
http://www.lasvegascitylife.com/articles/2010/06/17/opinion/coffee_and_outrage/iq_36458640.txt
mark yes, home prices will rise if there are jobs that pay large salaries to support the large mortgages.
ReplyDeletemy pea size reality is jobs are paying less instead of more. less salary and less benefits
in fact, just spent the afternoon with a new friend who's husband is a big developper here in orlando. they cleaned up for the last 7 years doing high end homes at Reunion Resort and several others. Like 1 mil and up for a condo. but then the bubble popped... so now they are doing small remodel jobs and living off what they made when times were good (going on 3 years off savings)
ReplyDeletebut if things turn up.. we will be in the perfect place at the right time.