Thursday, June 17, 2010
6/18/10 I Can't See Your Face In My Mind
I can't seem to find the right lie
I can't seem to find the right lie
Insanity's horse
Adorns the sky
Can't seem to find the right lie
It's amazing how often twisted lyrics from the sixties apply to (seemingly) twisted market moves this year. Trying to 'time' this market will drive you insane.
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If you don't time it, you will be added to the casualty statistics when you are carried out on your shield.
ReplyDeleteCheapy, this should put a smile on our face.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/f81f51fa-3602-4209-9978-df1738188b7c
Looks like we are having problems with the site again.
ReplyDeleteT3D- I was just about to send you a note. How was the trip!!??
I am back into mostly cash again after having deployed capital into several trades with very small profits. Batting average is good but slugging percentage is nil. Technicals tell me we must cross SPX 63 day EMA before intermediate term turns bull. (63 = geometric ave between 20 and 200).
ReplyDeleteGood analogy illini. Same here...although V has been a good $ winner as it is my largest position.
ReplyDeleteMark, the trip was great. Alaska is a place well worth visiting if you appreciate wide open spaces and solitude. Had about nine bear encounters and a few moose, fortunately there was a fence between us. We did see one moose in the wild.
ReplyDeleteIn the words of John Muir, how do you describe in words that which is indescribable. That is Glacier Bay.
Will post a few pics when I can.
Have been lurking for a few days, but have nothing to add to all the erudite posts.
Baltic Dry Index Chart
http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/b228ce4e-c941-42f6-9bd9-821ed48220ac
So did your little tyke take out any windows during batting practice?
I really didn't appreciate the BP dog and pony show that played out in Congress today, there were no technical details given from what little of it I saw.
ReplyDeleteIt looks to me like MON has bottomed out. I have already purchased 100 shares of it at $50.25 last week, and now I am placing a buy stop limit order on 100 more shares at $50.5/50.55.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, SD is performing quite poorly recently in the face of a strong increase in NGas. So I am lowering my sell limit order to $7 (from $7.32) for 250 shares I purchased a while ago at $6.32.
ReplyDeleteGlenfiddich Whisky Matured 64 Years Sells for $37,245
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=a7SAkPedZaZM
David, was that you that bought this or 2nd?
smart trends
ReplyDeleteAt the moment there are signs that an uptrend pause by the market indices has been almost completed by the trading environment trends and the next leg up, perhaps starting today, should take the DJIA up to its next ceiling at 10,550 by the middle of next week when the Fed speaks.
David- Let's keep an eye on SGG here...
ReplyDeleteI'm going to see if I can get XCO @ 17.36.
ReplyDeleteToday I'm the squirrel.
ReplyDeleteBought CVS yesterday at 31.64. This AM Walgreens announces they are reestablishing relationship with CVS. Sold premkt at 33.50. now 32.81
Bought CLF at 55.50 yesterday, sold at the open for 56.70 Now to take the rest of the day to relax.
Did you guys see gld premkt? Geez! Mid 123's
Keeping an eye on TBT for the 52 wk low, Fed announcement next week. Set up?
sounds crazy but PAL could start to happen here and now
ReplyDeleteI don't know how you do it Shark, maybe it's blood in the water, but it's pretty cool to watch.
ReplyDeletePAL is in that sweet spot of the 20 day ma...
ReplyDeleteand rising out of it's opening range I have a lot of ducks on the pal pond...not like bob but quite a few sheckles let's see what happenz
Could be running into a short squeeze here.
ReplyDeleteYou develop a smell for it:)
ReplyDeleteSniff, sniff....
ReplyDeleteMaybe my sniffer 'aint up to snuff:)
ReplyDeletePAL - Raised my sell limit to a bit over $4 following last night's close. Nicely green today, gonna give it some room. Picking PAL up at $3.13 was a nice gift.
ReplyDeleteStill hanging onto GMO as well.
Still considering the possibility of next week not being too god for equities, don't understand the fundamental reasoning for a rally here.
Options expiration?
vb - Thanks for posting, giving smart trend's theory a chance!
Unreal. The indexes continue to float on the green side? Well, I'm just walking past the casino tables here on my way to breakfast.
ReplyDeletePAL - I just want to mention that some claim PAL is s 2:1 gold play... All I know for certain is it's a speculative mining PM play.
ReplyDelete2nd - You gonna short this rally? I have serious doubts about next week being a good week...
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm going to stick to my plan and stay away from playing red or black.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Really flying, wonder what's up with that (must be dividend)?
ReplyDelete2nd - Okay, but let's definitely short S&P 1300 this time!!!
ReplyDeleteChicken,
ReplyDeleteSee what I meant the other day about the context of the price?
What makes this interesting is, the right price yesterday isn't the right price tomorrow:)
ROCK LOBSTAAAAA!!!!!!!
Don't sell the PAL it's just getting good.
Look at PAL go. Shoulda listened to shark and bought a stash for the little guy around 3.
ReplyDeleteActually PAL made a consolidation on the hourlies portending a move to/through 4
ReplyDeleteSo maybe your kid won't mind a slightly higher cost basis:)
"Central banks join the gold rush" => "Dumb money buying into gold hype"
ReplyDeleteGPX - For some reason I was looking at this one last night but was half asleep and don't remember why...
ReplyDelete"David, was that you that bought this or 2nd?"
ReplyDeleteT3D: we'll buy it once our own hedge fund starts rolling. :)
ok, I know i have asked this before, but what's the fascination with PAL? the longer term chart (1 year or so) looks pretty solid.
ReplyDelete"David- Let's keep an eye on SGG here..."
ReplyDeleteMark, you sold it right at the top! That was some great intuition...
Since I sold mine at $44, I'll place a buy stop limit at $44/44.05 so as to catch it on the way up if it doesn't drop below $40 during this pullback. If it does, then I'll start scaling in below $40.
"What makes this interesting is, the right price yesterday isn't the right price tomorrow"
ReplyDeleteYep, that's probably an understatement that could quickly go either way. I'm of course biased to the upside but man the economy is completely in the ditch according to the messages I'm receiving on my antennae. Lots of weekend retreat homes for sale around here, I need to call a realtor and see if they're moving inventory. I'd guess no, b/c I'm expecting federal furloughs in the pipeline which should actually help Fla and cause real estate here to stagnate at best. Then again, those furloughs might relocate to their weekend retreats here, as well.
Anyway, from this roost I still feel the digging in of heels. Might become fingernails too, at some point?
SD heard my plea yesterday, and just to prove that it's not a complete dog it rose to $7 this morning and hit my sell limit order for the 250 shares I purchased at $6.32. My next sell limit is at $7.27 for another 250 shares I purchased at $6.27.
ReplyDeleteAlso, MON did hit my buy stop limit order today at $50.50 for 100 shares. When UNG has obviously bottomed at around $7, I did have a thought of putting my whole port into it, but I didn't do it since all my cash was already tied up at that point in other crappy investments (such as ultrashorts, which turned out not to be crappy at all :)). This time, I suspect that a few months from now (a year at most) I'll be really regretting not putting my whole port into MON at $50 and letting it ride. So just to reduce my regrets, I'll keep throwing money at it gradually for now. Of course, I need to save some money for SGG when it drops below $40 and better yet below $37, so as to hit ALL the stops that are out there.
PAL - TOF, you tell us! We(I) believe we've identified something that's (grossly?) under-priced? I don't particularly care for the gold component, along with maybe plenty of others who've been fleeing (perhaps?).
ReplyDeleteDoes that sound crazy enough to compel?
T3D,
ReplyDeleteThat seasonal gold chart has to be wrong, or just some weird way of presenting the data.
Logically you would need 40 data points for each month, one for each ot the 40 years. If so, why does the last year of each month always land at the same place to connect with the first year of the next month? I mean what are the odds? And why is January's number always the lowest and December's always the highest? Was that really the case?
Sorry, but I don't think so...
BP - "HOUSTON, June 18 (Reuters) - The first of two relief wells being drilled to plug the massive Gulf of Mexico leak is within 200 feet (60 metres) of the blown-out well, a BP executive said on Friday.
ReplyDeleteKent Wells, senior vice president of exploration and production, said the next step will be to slowly hone in on the ruptured well and eventually plug it. (Reporting by Kristen Hays; Editing by Doina Chiacu)"
cheapy - FWIW, i couldn't make heads or tails of that chart either.
ReplyDeleteJust as I had expected, the market kept moving up slowly through Friday, and more importantly, the VIX kept falling (and so SPY puts were getting cheaper and cheaper). Consistent with my plan, I just purchased 1 SPY September $114 put for $6.20. This time I'll try to gradually scale into SPY puts rather than scaling into ultrashorts, since in the event of a market push for 1300 by year end, I'll give up all my recent gains with a large ultrashort position, while SPY puts will limit my losses on the short side to a very small amount. At the same time, if S&P drops below $1000 this summer, the puts will greatly outperform ultrashorts.
ReplyDeleteI am glad that I closed my remaining June SPY puts when S&P just started to rebound in early June, out of concern that they moved too close to expiration and a temporary market rebound could render them worthless. Back then, I got some great prices for my puts, selling, for example, 2 June $114 puts for $5.41 each, which would be worth much smaller today. Actually, the *really* great prices were received when those puts were hitting my sell limit orders in late May (back then I sold 2 June $114 puts for $8 each), and, once again, a large part of the reason for placing those limit orders was my concern about the approaching expiration day.
The moral of the story is: do not hold options that have less than a month until expiration -- roll them over into longer-dated ones!
PAL fascination......
ReplyDeleteIt's an accurate description of a genuine phenomenon.
My dick gets hard when I think about those mineral deposits:)
Actually PAL is like any rough neighborhood. Once I was the palefaced cracker wandering in to buy nickle bags.....
Now I own the entire block!
No, just kidding. Really I remember having some PAL stock stolen from me years ago when I was just getting started. You know, the price plunged, my frightened-money stop got hit or worse yet I just dumped it, don't remember which, probably the latter though eh?, anyway, I always wanted to avenge that experience.
Who votes for a late session push to 1125?
ReplyDeleteCP, I would say a late session plunge to close in the red. Now that I got my "SPY put fix," I am ready for that. :)
ReplyDeleteCheapy, Ok. I just posted the chart and do not know the answer to your points.
ReplyDeleteSo, I'm e-mailing Dimitri the following:
Dimitri,
I showed your chart to a friend and he responded with the following comment.
Since I do not have the capacity to answer his question, I thought I would ask you.
That seasonal gold chart has to be wrong, or just some weird way of presenting the data.
Logically you would need 40 data points for each month, one for each ot the 40 years. If so, why does the last year of each month always land at the same place to connect with the first year of the next month? I mean what are the odds? And why is January's number always the lowest and December's always the highest? Was that really the case?
Sorry, but I don't think so...
Dimitri, how would you respond to his concerns? Thanks in advance.
Aloha,
Let's how he responds.
The first post was lost in the ether, here is another.
ReplyDeleteCheapy, I do not know the answer so i e-mailed Dimitri, let's see how he responds.
In the meantime, if interested, maybe this article can provide insight.
http://seasonalcharts.com/img/ZUTEXTEN/saisonalitaet_e.pdf
Here is Dimitri's reply.
ReplyDeleteJoe,
The starting value and point is simply by definition; one could chooes any other value or day.
We are calculating relative perfomance from day to day. It is not about levels. We deal with growth, so mathematically one has to use growth functions. At the end, you can see between any two days the correct average percentage price movement, and also a correct resulting performance for the year (e.g. 110 or 10% if, say, gold did rise 10% in average over the period).
A sheme can be found here:
http://seasonalcharts.com/img/ZUTEXTEN/saisonalitaet_e.pdf
Dimi
It says its usually a percentage, but I think to make any real sense out of it you would need to see the actual data, the percentage calc, and plotted data in detail. IE, why don't I see any less than 100? Its not that its impossible, but over 40 years included from 1980 to 1999, where it dropped from 800 to 250 or so over that long time frame. There must have been many negative (ie under 100) months and years in there, but I don't see that on the chart.
ReplyDeleteWell, I understand what your saying. The first time I looked at the chart I thought well gold never goes down it just moves in an up 45 degree angle. We all know that is not true with gold or any investment.
ReplyDeleteI can only say that we have been conditioned to look at price chart which shows those ups and downs and that this seasonal chart is a very different interpretation of the data which seems to take out those ups and downs.
That said, if something does not seem to help or confuses one, its best to ignore it.
I will end with this from the article, "Seasonal charts differ to conventional charts in that they do not show prices over a certain time period, but instead show price progression averaged over the course of a certain time frame."
Cheapy thanks for your thoughts, you helped me better understand the chart in question. Cheers mate.
Funny when I post today it sometimes seems to take 10 or 15 minutes for it to show up.
ReplyDeleteRelief well 200 ft proximity... Wonder what the targeted angle of intersect is?
ReplyDelete"10 or 15 minutes for it to show up."
ReplyDeletePerfect, we can post trades after the fact and nobody will know the difference!
ie: "I'm gonna do this before close:" actually gets posted after close, man that was a good trade!
Bears had their chance...i don't see a plunge into close.
ReplyDeleteFD: short and not too jolly.
A thought has just occurred to me: if the market's correction in May was due only to fears about Europe, which are getting dissipated now, then how come XHB is in a downtrend? Therefore, I think Hussman is right and the recent market correction is mostly due to the realization of the upcoming economic difficulties in the US, which means that the correction is not over and the market will keep sliding down (such difficulties are not a one-time event that can briefly pull the market down and then be brushed aside).
ReplyDeleteTOF: bulls had their chance as well, and they couldn't mount any sort of a rally. Next week will likely be a down week and then S&P *will* drop below 1000 this summer.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend guys!
ReplyDeleteThe 3 June $10 UCO puts I sold in May for $1.15 each are going to happily expire today, as well as 3 June $22 PXP puts I sold in May for $1.05 each. So my portfolio will become a little "shorter" next week.
ReplyDeleteIdeally, however, I would want next week to be a positive week as well, so that UCO would hit my sell limit at $11.29, and THEN the market can plunge for all I care. :)
RIG - Watched it fly, the world needs oil.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Check out the correlation between the current market movements since late April and the market movements in August to early October 1987. Pretty close movements, huh? The timing of this rebound hooks up with a top on 6/21 before a big move down, if the correlation holds.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I agree about Hussman's assessment. I think the market will ultimately begin folding under the weight of all of the recent negative reports coming out. The economy needs more stimulus to survive, and quite frankly I don't think the government will have the political backing to provide more stimulus, especially in light of the debt crisis in Europe.
"I don't think the government will have the political backing to provide more stimulus, especially in light of the debt crisis in Europe."
ReplyDeleteI heard them play that riff today, we'll have to see what Barton thinks about it I guess.
"Obama Urges Europe Not to Drop Stimulus Measures Yet"
"Obama highlights impact of $787bn stimulus"
The BIG problem is that the stimulus has now mostly been spent, its end in November is now in the market's view, as well as all the tax hikes (and/or elimination of tax cuts) that go into effect in January.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry, but if the economy isn't even able to muster a recovery with all the current money printing going on, what will it look like without the $100 billion per month of stimulus and a bunch of tax hikes piled on?
Personally, I think we get the next leg of the depression starting in December, and if they try to print their way out, instead we get a dollar crisis and the full threat of hyperinflation that a dollar crash would bring. Given the example of the Euro, we could easily expect the dollar to drop by 20 or 30% in a crisis, and I just don't see how we would bail out of that at this point.
chicken - yeah, we'll see how it works out. Look at how long it has taken to get fin reg passed. it seems like there is a lot of competition with Obama's agenda so what he says isn't necessarily what he can do.
ReplyDeletei suspect that talks of another stimilus plan will be coming out of the woodwork soon.
everyone - have a great weekend. for you fathers out there...happy father's day. remember to appreciate the precious time you spend with your kids.
Boy the oil business sure has hung their dirty laundry out for inspection, anybody see the Anadarko statement in circulation?
ReplyDeletePrinting: I think they stopped way too soon and the paltry amount directed towards infrastructure improvement was next to nothing if not a complete waste. I don't remember ever hearing much more than a short-term plan for what's morphed into a long-term problem.
ReplyDeleteWe're still only addressing the symptoms without correcting the root causes.
OK, I've done a quick analysis of the current market. One of the following 3 things will happen by the close on Thursday. TOF will be forced to cover/I'll be forced to sell/TOF will cover and I'll sell...both of us saying screw this market for now.
ReplyDeleteBTW...The US soccer team got FUCKING ROBBED today!! Not matter though, if they don't win their last match, they don't deserve to advance. Frankly, no one in Group C deserves to advance as it stands now.
I did close green today on the back of HEK/JPM.
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