[8:50pm ET] Many of you will not like this report; but I’m going to write it anyway because I have always been one who fought for freedom, and today I am screaming that it is being taken away, but nobody seems to care.
A week ago, I stated, “On this Monday, June 7, after the $USD contract peaked at 88.71 and the Euro contract bottomed at 119.13, there was a reversal in money flow and the Euro recovered, along with rallies in precious metals, oil and equities. Now, the question is for how long!”
Apparently the rally was a little longer and higher than I anticipated. I am not a happy camper, not because I was wrong, but because of why.
How did this happen? I think it happened because crooked Interventionists made it happen. I find the whole capital market in the US today is so disgustingly corrupt I want to puke. I am now considering trading elsewhere, in instruments that trade around the world around the clock.
Anyway, we trade prices; so ask yourself, if prices are going up do we really have to chase them? I say no; we can step aside.
Now, having got that off my chest, we can move into the rest of the story of this week #25, a very challenging one for me as I didn’t step aside, but got caught in massive gap openings – three days in a row now and counting. Tomorrow is likely to be another.
Not to worry; it happens. About once or twice a year, markets go crazy. If we are unfortunately on the wrong side, we call it having our heads handed to us on a platter, although I don’t really know why we use that expression.
Well, I might be carrying it around for a couple days, but at least I’m not headless and brain-dead, like the Admnistration must think.
Sorry this is late. Today is Father’s Day. I allowed myself some time off. I needed it.
On my return, I see the futures are absolutely sickening tonight. This is absolutely bizarre. Another extreme gap opening with no justification.
Interventionists have turned the market into a casino. I might have to become a day trader, going to cash before every close. I no longer trust these people with my overnight positions.
Btw, the letters I get from pro traders indicate their frustration is at least as great as mine. Something needs to be done to stabilize these markets.
Also btw, I am extremely appreciative of the quality of the contributions of various bloggers in this community. You add a lot of value to the discussion, for which the rest of us are very thankful.
Have a great week. You will find me relaxed tomorrow and ready to trade with a cool head.
I have to agree with Bill. I'm about to swallow a 5% loss, which on the surface isn't that bad, but it's more the reason behind it that urks me. Given the news flow and all of the leading and long term indicators turning decisively down in recent weeks, an open mind would think that the markets would follow the indicators.
Yeah, I've taken 5% hits many times in my trading career. I have also, unfortunately, allowed 5% hits to turn into 10-15-20% hits. You don't need me to tell you to keep it to a 5% hit. You can make 5% back without too much of a mental struggle. A 15-20% hit? That's another story.
Yuan - China: "We had to protect our economy." Sure, for nearly 2 decades! The second largest economy on the planet and the currency doesn't trade in the free market.. Duh!
Alright then, lately there's been concern within China about inflation, apparently food prices have risen appreciably and real estate for sure (which I think is limited to luxury housing, the public housing projects are (or may be) price-fixed)
Positive points (from our perspective):
1) If inflation in China is a real concern then an appreciated yuan would relieve that pressure. 2) China is working on a massive build-out, the plan is to move huge numbers of the population into cities by 2020 or something like that (can anybody guess why?, I've got some ideas) They're going to need massive quantities of commodities to pull off the task, an appreciated yuan helps. 3) Global trade should feel some relief.
Negative points
1) Chinese exports will probably slow, stronger currency effect. (aside: wouldn't it be nice if we looked back 5 years from now to find the trade imbalance peaked in 2007/2008?) 2) USD won't be as strong, so energy and commodities will be more expensive in terms of U$D (we consume too much anyway).
It's the responsible thing to do, makes perfect sense to me and is coming way too late if you ask me.
An open mind: That was the approach that allowed me to stay on the long side through this last dip. IMO shorts have had much better trading practice than longs have.
sharkie, I didn't see any mention of Bill's reference to a currency peg, don't think I ever have, but thanks for saving me the trouble of having to correct your oversight. ;)
Ya know, I've been trying to get people thinking/discussing this subject, including over at the KK to no avail even when asking Bill directly.
China has a population 5x that of the US and they're coming out of their dark ages.
Anglos were stuck in their depressionary period for four hundred years.
If Bill WAS shorting gold, he was doing so in the complete absence of any chart-reason to do so...Meaning, gold is in a nice uptrend, and it offered no inkling that it would do anything but continue to rise based on the charts. Now one might think that the FED will raise rates soon, or some other event might come along and hurt gold, but as a TRADE, it sounds to me like a dumb idea. Aren't all the forces of heaven and earth conspiring to help materials prices?
And what does our prison-industrial complex friend Kaimu think of Bill's heretical position vis-a-vis the "only true wealth"?
Kaimu must be shitting hemp popsicles! (I have no idea what that's supposed to mean:)
T3D- Wow! Those are amazing photos. I like looking at no-professional pics to see what the average Joe would. Thanks!!!
I'll post some photos of my next trip to Sacramento for a soccer tourny :( BTW...My oldest, Kendra, was asked to play 2 years up this weekend for a game. Little shit held in there well :).
I'm not to excited about tomorrow. How many times have we seen this before? My best take is it will be a tell. Failure, and the rally is totally shot. Holds it's level as of now, toss up. Rallies beyond whatever the GOLBEX high tonight, we go much higher.
Finished a great book this weekend. "The Doomesday Key"....OK, it wasn't great, but a great summer read.
Just to reiterate, PAL is only just now breaking it's recent downtrend in a way in which is now obvious to the average chartist.
This combined with the China story augers for several good days to come in PAL.
Picture a nation of peasants all driving SUV's and you get the idea...Palladium should be good from here.
My point: As attractive as it may seem, resist to the extent possible the amateurish urge to take profits in PAL when it will, odds are, be worth more in the future.
If you DO sell into a nice price spike, be prepared to sit in front of the computer all day and be ready to
A) buy back in cheaper if you know how or
B) Buy back as the price surpasses the price you just sold at:)
Pro investors have gotten VERY GOOD at not bidding up stocks they are accumulating....so patience is the word. In fact, this is a case where when you feel like selling, you're probably better off doubling down, to invoke an expression our gracious host can appreciate:)
Happy hunting everybody.
Oh and I'm now seeing a statuesque, big-titted Germanic blonde...So happiness reigns:)
Shark - no one tells anyone to do anything. I'll be stopped out today at some point, taking a little knock on the head for being stubborn. Ahhh such is life. Given all of the long term and short term leading indicators pointing decisively down the past month or so and the reduction in AMB (thanks to David), I thought this recent run was over around 1,100 and I wanted to short but I wanted to make sure it was lower risk than shorting any particular security....so I shorted the SPY and bought a little BGZ to juice my short. It looks like the run will go to at least 1,150 so I will just wait for the downturn to start before considering shorting.
By the way, WTF is going on with GOOG? I've been wanting to go long this thing for a while now but am just waiting. Should we stop waiting and buy or what?
Nice to see the market headed in the direction I'd anticipated, the couple of Chinese stocks I've been watching have moved up as well, which is an even better response than I'd thought.
PAL - Still have my sell limit set for $4.10 on my tiny position, nice to be making money as opposed to just making it back. Might need to adjust limit upwards (or make it a stop-limit).
The large traders out there have shown a propensity for finding stops, so I'm hesitant.
eh - sold my FCX...moved it back into short SPY / BGZ.
I think (hope, ugh) my initial call of a potential douple dip is still in the works. Everything I read about the economy tells me I should be short the market.
For a brief moment there today I doubted my arrogant / ignorant short position and went long. Now I'm firmly back in the seat of arrogant / ignorant short and surprisingly I feel more comfortable.
Still cautious here. Had some longs I took decent profits on. Yuan announcement is = to "the check is in the mail".
As CP might say, "don't count your chickens before they hatch".
From Rosie: "In today's issue of Breakfast with Dave
• China’s announcement over the weekend to end the yuan peg to the U.S. dollar has ignited a rally in risk assets to start off the week -- a rally of sizeable proportions
• China’s currency shift not a game changer: let’s not take our eye off the ball, the global deleveraging cycle is still in full swing
• What happened to the stimulus? An extension for the closing date of the homebuyers tax credit fell two votes short of passing in the Senate
• Sector picks from the U.S. industrial production report
• Oh Canada: we have said it once and we have said it again, the downside risks and upside potential for Canada vis-Ã -vis the U.S.A. have rarely looked as compelling as is the case today
• The U.S. fiscal noose tightens: tax hikes in the U.S. are coming down the pike and from a whole bunch of directions
• Will the events in China touch off a round of global inflation?
• ECRI weekly leading index continue to fall, raising the risk for a double-dip
• Action in corporate bonds have not “validated” the runup in equities to their one-month highs"
Vad would say, it aint about what you think...it's about what you see. What I'm wondering is, why would you buy FCX a few minutes ago only to sell it? It hasn't done anything wrong? (gap up open, good looking possible tren reversal, now above the 200 day)
It sounds like you are working at cross purposes with yourself.
And another thing; if FRE and FNM would have been fine with a reverse split and without further government intervention, then what does that say about the direction of the economy?
What a bunch of back and forth BS setting oneself up for cherry-picking down the road...
shark - the FCX trade was an emotional one. I closed out even so no love lost there. the short SPY/long BGZ trades are hard headed stubborn ones. but I think my longer term look at where the markets are going will ultimately win out, despite Vad's fool proof methods.
a short SPY trade really isn't an astronomical risk to take versus what i think are higher risks being long in light of the clear downturn in econ stats over the past month or two.
Alternative energy - It just isn't the magic bullet some people think it is.
I watched Charlie Rose interview the Vestas CEO last week and he basically admitted even their business is dying on the vine b/c of not having an effective mechanism for storing energy.
You just aren't going to run that heat pump compressor and air handler off a couple of watch batteries. I hate to break it to ya, but physics doesn't work that way.
Think more along the lines of how a nuclear car would use just a thimble full of uranium to push it past 100K miles and there's your electric car. Yep, there's problems with that idea too!
Yeah I do. Actually I see that as a very viable possibility. That would be great news for you because it would be a strong indicator that a correction might continue here.
yeah, we'll see in another few hours. by the way, i completely disagree with this whole china reval being good. maybe in the long, long term, but not now. we don't need our goods to be more expensive. i get all of my products for my furniture business from china one way or the other and this will increase my costs.
Absolutely, Chinese products will tend to be more expensive. That's precisely the way free markets are supposed to operate.
I think it's the best real news we've heard in a very long time, yea sure maybe not for the short term but hopefully the market will eventually realize free trade is good and bid on it. Drop the trade barriers and government interventions that put us here so commerce can resume. Piling on more debt isn't a long term solution without free trade.
chicken - i think the problem is our economy doesn't need ANY price hikes right now, be it with taxes or rising input prices. i think we're right at a big turning point and anything can tip us back into a downturn.
I saw that AA had a large move up today, reaching $12 (the cost basis for about 1/2 of my position), and so I just sold August $12 calls against those shares for $0.69, so as to reduce my cost basis even further or exit that additional AA purchase at a gain.
I haven't finished reading through today's comments yet, but if you guys have not already addressed this issue, can anyone guess WTF has happened to commodity prices at 12noon EST? They all fell off a cliff, including UNG...
TOF, do you believe the concept of foreign trade isn't completely distorted? I think it is, and I also think I see a process of reform emerging.
Maybe I'm completely off base and it's perfectly acceptable for the world's 2nd largest economy to keep their currency out of the free market..... Maybe all currencies should be manipulated to suit the needs of the deciders.....
Or maybe my concept of the entire subject is somehow distorted, in which case I'm asking you guys to try setting me straight.
Shark, PAL has a good fundamental story, but if these fundamentals are a factor in your decisions, then you are an investor. And if you are an investor, then you should buy LOW. The time to buy low will be when the current market rebound subsides and S&P drops below 1000. PAL *will not* be able to withstand the next leg down in the broad market.
PAL hit a sell limit order today at $3.78 for a small position I opened at $3.38 in May.
Chicken - I think in the long term it is good, but we need some stability in our debt structure and economy before anything like this happens. The amount of money dumped into China over the past decade is astronomical and if this ends up causing prices to go up over time, it will take a while for companies to move their operations to other areas with lower costs...I think this could be another hit on S&P earnings
Shark, the rise in the dollar at 12pm seems to be a rather small one, and if such a small bump up was able to cause a major reversal in oil and PMs from a gap up to a gap down, then something is really wrong with the market now (all the buyers have VERY weak hands).
Craig, UNG is coming my way, but sine I am not a momentum player and I don't like to use stops, I prefer to wait until a prices become real good. That would happen when UNG drops below $8.
"I think this could be another hit on S&P earnings "
Oh man, we're trying to be way too simplistic.
I think what you mean is if the yuan were appreciated too rapidly, some companies living large on the presumption the yuan would remain manipulated stand to loose.
I'll agree, but then I wouldn't anticipate China growth would be sacrificed so easily, haven't they already stated any moves would be weighed and measured?
Mark, have you done anything about SGG today? It hit my buy stop limit at $44, getting me back into the small position (100 shares) I opened at $41.79 at the same price I sold it last week ($44).
"if such a small bump up was able to cause a major reversal in oil and PMs from a gap up to a gap down, then something is really wrong with the market now"
Good observation, the market has every reason to be extremely nervous and could dart in the downward direction faster then you could say jackrabbit. I especially appreciate the reference to gaps up and down, as if maybe a filling of gaps should be anticipated as normal.
TOF -- good thing you got back quickly into your BGZ and SPY short!
Shark: why did you get out of your PAL at $3.72? You were saying that it is a long-term winner, so did something in the daily chart earlier today tell you that PAL was going down?
Very specifically David I sold a lot of PAL right near the high of the 20 minute opening range. I had always planned to take a lot fo profits quick 'cause my position size was too big but I put on balls of steel.
I don't have a shitload of money like some of you guys do after bilking your employers for years, what I have I stole fair and square:)
Then after everything began to fail I sold the rest and as I just said, even though I'm not thrilled aboout U.S. equities at this exact moment, I would have felt like a shithead if I hadn't at least bought some of the PAL back near the days' low.
Will it work out? Who cares? I have a lot of house money and am willing to be surprised. It is the fact that it's house money that allows you to play the game right. And if you were willing to buy it at 3.80, you gotta love it at 3.50 right?
I agree with Shark...the close could have been worse. But it was bad enough for me to add to my short. I may buy a bank or two though heading into Fin Reg resolution.
I appreciate Cara's honesty in this week's WIR:
ReplyDelete[8:50pm ET] Many of you will not like this report; but I’m going to write it anyway because I have always been one who fought for freedom, and today I am screaming that it is being taken away, but nobody seems to care.
A week ago, I stated, “On this Monday, June 7, after the $USD contract peaked at 88.71 and the Euro contract bottomed at 119.13, there was a reversal in money flow and the Euro recovered, along with rallies in precious metals, oil and equities. Now, the question is for how long!”
Apparently the rally was a little longer and higher than I anticipated. I am not a happy camper, not because I was wrong, but because of why.
How did this happen? I think it happened because crooked Interventionists made it happen. I find the whole capital market in the US today is so disgustingly corrupt I want to puke. I am now considering trading elsewhere, in instruments that trade around the world around the clock.
Here's the best section:
ReplyDeleteAnyway, we trade prices; so ask yourself, if prices are going up do we really have to chase them? I say no; we can step aside.
Now, having got that off my chest, we can move into the rest of the story of this week #25, a very challenging one for me as I didn’t step aside, but got caught in massive gap openings – three days in a row now and counting. Tomorrow is likely to be another.
Not to worry; it happens. About once or twice a year, markets go crazy. If we are unfortunately on the wrong side, we call it having our heads handed to us on a platter, although I don’t really know why we use that expression.
Well, I might be carrying it around for a couple days, but at least I’m not headless and brain-dead, like the Admnistration must think.
Mark- So you're a 'W' too, are you?
ReplyDeleteFinal paragraphs:
ReplyDeleteWrap-up:
Sorry this is late. Today is Father’s Day. I allowed myself some time off. I needed it.
On my return, I see the futures are absolutely sickening tonight. This is absolutely bizarre. Another extreme gap opening with no justification.
Interventionists have turned the market into a casino. I might have to become a day trader, going to cash before every close. I no longer trust these people with my overnight positions.
Btw, the letters I get from pro traders indicate their frustration is at least as great as mine. Something needs to be done to stabilize these markets.
Also btw, I am extremely appreciative of the quality of the contributions of various bloggers in this community. You add a lot of value to the discussion, for which the rest of us are very thankful.
Have a great week. You will find me relaxed tomorrow and ready to trade with a cool head.
Yes, I still have it. :-)
I have to agree with Bill. I'm about to swallow a 5% loss, which on the surface isn't that bad, but it's more the reason behind it that urks me. Given the news flow and all of the leading and long term indicators turning decisively down in recent weeks, an open mind would think that the markets would follow the indicators.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I've taken 5% hits many times in my trading career. I have also, unfortunately, allowed 5% hits to turn into 10-15-20% hits. You don't need me to tell you to keep it to a 5% hit. You can make 5% back without too much of a mental struggle. A 15-20% hit? That's another story.
ReplyDeleteYuan - China: "We had to protect our economy." Sure, for nearly 2 decades! The second largest economy on the planet and the currency doesn't trade in the free market.. Duh!
ReplyDeleteAlright then, lately there's been concern within China about inflation, apparently food prices have risen appreciably and real estate for sure (which I think is limited to luxury housing, the public housing projects are (or may be) price-fixed)
Positive points (from our perspective):
1) If inflation in China is a real concern then an appreciated yuan would relieve that pressure.
2) China is working on a massive build-out, the plan is to move huge numbers of the population into cities by 2020 or something like that (can anybody guess why?, I've got some ideas) They're going to need massive quantities of commodities to pull off the task, an appreciated yuan helps.
3) Global trade should feel some relief.
Negative points
1) Chinese exports will probably slow, stronger currency effect. (aside: wouldn't it be nice if we looked back 5 years from now to find the trade imbalance peaked in 2007/2008?)
2) USD won't be as strong, so energy and commodities will be more expensive in terms of U$D (we consume too much anyway).
It's the responsible thing to do, makes perfect sense to me and is coming way too late if you ask me.
I'm sure you guys can add to the list of bullets.
Have to say 2nd, really enjoy the way you spin the tunes!!!
ReplyDeleteThe new normal, red or black.
2nd- Yep, William, after my Moms father.
ReplyDeleteGood weekend?
T3d- Thanks- I really should get an iPod and download some of them before they get deleted.
ReplyDeleteMark- It was a good week, actually. Back to work tomorrow.
Futures are calming down. Good chance we open flat, IMO.
ReplyDeleteAn open mind: That was the approach that allowed me to stay on the long side through this last dip. IMO shorts have had much better trading practice than longs have.
ReplyDeleteCP- Thanks man. You kinda hit the points my pointy head thought of :). Honestly, I'm a pretty smart cat. I don't know why FOREX moves are hard for me.
ReplyDeleteKinda like it was so easy to see/understand that the US soccer team got SCREWED!!!!!! :)
T3D- Any cool pictures of you trip you can email me?
Wait a second...
ReplyDeleteIs Bill saying he's been persistently short ahead of gap up opens and is indeed short now?
And it's not China's currency policy moving American markets but "interventionists"?
WTF guys.....
Alls this is is an old out of touch guy who was throwing darts....Fuck him. As for you Teamonfuego, who told you to go short? Not me:)
correction......
ReplyDeletean old out of touch alcoholic throwing darts....
sorry but i gots to tells it likes it izz.
I think he was mainly shorting gold.
ReplyDeleteIf you're going to tell it 'the way it is,' then you picked the right lead post- more like Tupac's version of the song.
ReplyDeleteWhat will interest me is how he plays any further run-up(s) this week- does he stop out, or continue to hold.
ReplyDeletesharkie, I didn't see any mention of Bill's reference to a currency peg, don't think I ever have, but thanks for saving me the trouble of having to correct your oversight. ;)
ReplyDeleteYa know, I've been trying to get people thinking/discussing this subject, including over at the KK to no avail even when asking Bill directly.
China has a population 5x that of the US and they're coming out of their dark ages.
Anglos were stuck in their depressionary period for four hundred years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Ages
Mark, I have about 600 pics. Here are two from Glacier Bay.
ReplyDeletehttp://content.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/bf6f60a9-a42c-47bb-be70-6bf45d301406/2010-06-20_2316.png
http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/367e37c9-3081-4ea9-9415-9f41e4241e35
From a hike and at a wildlife center for previously injured animals.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/e709d4cb-7180-484d-b663-460b27c6e745
http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/02de125f-4902-4e7d-9c85-b5f05dfecb7c
Mark, when I get around to culling, I send you 10 to 20 pics if you like. I just did this on the fly.
2nd,
ReplyDeleteIf Bill WAS shorting gold, he was doing so in the complete absence of any chart-reason to do so...Meaning, gold is in a nice uptrend, and it offered no inkling that it would do anything but continue to rise based on the charts. Now one might think that the FED will raise rates soon, or some other event might come along and hurt gold, but as a TRADE, it sounds to me like a dumb idea. Aren't all the forces of heaven and earth conspiring to help materials prices?
And what does our prison-industrial complex friend Kaimu think of Bill's heretical position vis-a-vis the "only true wealth"?
Kaimu must be shitting hemp popsicles! (I have no idea what that's supposed to mean:)
Here is one more, funny these pics and my photography skills make the mountains look small. They definitely were not.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/90857f6b-1729-46fc-a369-e032a888e3ff
T3D- Wow! Those are amazing photos. I like looking at no-professional pics to see what the average Joe would. Thanks!!!
ReplyDeleteI'll post some photos of my next trip to Sacramento for a soccer tourny :( BTW...My oldest, Kendra, was asked to play 2 years up this weekend for a game. Little shit held in there well :).
I'm not to excited about tomorrow. How many times have we seen this before? My best take is it will be a tell. Failure, and the rally is totally shot. Holds it's level as of now, toss up. Rallies beyond whatever the GOLBEX high tonight, we go much higher.
Finished a great book this weekend. "The Doomesday Key"....OK, it wasn't great, but a great summer read.
T3D- Yes, sorry. Please feel free to send as many pics as you can. I love it!
ReplyDeleteSome things will never change...
ReplyDeleteBTW I ran into the dude who wrote "walking in Memphis" the other day at the Wilton library.....
small world, right?
Kyle did you ever get into CDE?
Chicken (and anyone else long PAL),
ReplyDeleteJust to reiterate, PAL is only just now breaking it's recent downtrend in a way in which is now obvious to the average chartist.
This combined with the China story augers for several good days to come in PAL.
Picture a nation of peasants all driving SUV's and you get the idea...Palladium should be good from here.
My point: As attractive as it may seem, resist to the extent possible the amateurish urge to take profits in PAL when it will, odds are, be worth more in the future.
If you DO sell into a nice price spike, be prepared to sit in front of the computer all day and be ready to
A) buy back in cheaper if you know how or
B) Buy back as the price surpasses the price you just sold at:)
Pro investors have gotten VERY GOOD at not bidding up stocks they are accumulating....so patience is the word. In fact, this is a case where when you feel like selling, you're probably better off doubling down, to invoke an expression our gracious host can appreciate:)
Happy hunting everybody.
Oh and I'm now seeing a statuesque, big-titted Germanic blonde...So happiness reigns:)
Shark - no one tells anyone to do anything. I'll be stopped out today at some point, taking a little knock on the head for being stubborn. Ahhh such is life. Given all of the long term and short term leading indicators pointing decisively down the past month or so and the reduction in AMB (thanks to David), I thought this recent run was over around 1,100 and I wanted to short but I wanted to make sure it was lower risk than shorting any particular security....so I shorted the SPY and bought a little BGZ to juice my short. It looks like the run will go to at least 1,150 so I will just wait for the downturn to start before considering shorting.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, WTF is going on with GOOG? I've been wanting to go long this thing for a while now but am just waiting. Should we stop waiting and buy or what?
ReplyDeleteNo Random Thoughts from Landry this morning? He's randomed out.
ReplyDeleteI sold some of my PAL just to take profits and reduce size/risk.
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell...so I only make twenty million:)
Nice break out in CE, not that I'll chase it here.
ReplyDeleteLong a little FCX at $69.62 to hedge my still short position.
ReplyDeleteI've got a dog named Solar
ReplyDeleteHe's been a bad bad pup
'cause every time the market climbs
He refuses to go up:)
Bad doggie Solar...Bad doggie:)
What will it take
to give Solar a break
A nuclear disater?
oh btw...after this BP disaster, do we really trust these fuckups with nuclear power?
I DONT THINK SO....:)
Not in MY toxic brownfield:)
Moved all of my short into long FCX at $69.78
ReplyDeleteTOF- Damn man. No one can ever say you sit on your hands! Ballsy move. GL.
ReplyDeleteNice to see the market headed in the direction I'd anticipated, the couple of Chinese stocks I've been watching have moved up as well, which is an even better response than I'd thought.
ReplyDeletePAL - Still have my sell limit set for $4.10 on my tiny position, nice to be making money as opposed to just making it back. Might need to adjust limit upwards (or make it a stop-limit).
The large traders out there have shown a propensity for finding stops, so I'm hesitant.
I've got a dog named Solar
ReplyDeleteHe is a bad bad pooch
Because across my carpet
with his tail up does he scootch!
eh - sold my FCX...moved it back into short SPY / BGZ.
ReplyDeleteI think (hope, ugh) my initial call of a potential douple dip is still in the works. Everything I read about the economy tells me I should be short the market.
RIMM @ 60.01. Let's see if it can hold the 20sma.
ReplyDeleteFor a brief moment there today I doubted my arrogant / ignorant short position and went long. Now I'm firmly back in the seat of arrogant / ignorant short and surprisingly I feel more comfortable.
ReplyDeleteStill cautious here. Had some longs I took decent profits on.
ReplyDeleteYuan announcement is = to "the check is in the mail".
As CP might say, "don't count your chickens before they hatch".
From Rosie:
"In today's issue of Breakfast with Dave
• China’s announcement over the weekend to end the yuan peg to the U.S. dollar has ignited a rally in risk assets to start off the week -- a rally of sizeable proportions
• China’s currency shift not a game changer: let’s not take our eye off the ball, the global deleveraging cycle is still in full swing
• What happened to the stimulus? An extension for the closing date of the homebuyers tax credit fell two votes short of passing in the Senate
• Sector picks from the U.S. industrial production report
• Oh Canada: we have said it once and we have said it again, the downside risks and upside potential for Canada vis-Ã -vis the U.S.A. have rarely looked as compelling as is the case today
• The U.S. fiscal noose tightens: tax hikes in the U.S. are coming down the pike and from a whole bunch of directions
• Will the events in China touch off a round of global inflation?
• ECRI weekly leading index continue to fall, raising the risk for a double-dip
• Action in corporate bonds have not “validated” the runup in equities to their one-month highs"
Team,
ReplyDeleteVad would say, it aint about what you think...it's about what you see. What I'm wondering is, why would you buy FCX a few minutes ago only to sell it? It hasn't done anything wrong? (gap up open, good looking possible tren reversal, now above the 200 day)
It sounds like you are working at cross purposes with yourself.
You need a big fat joint and a round of golf:)
That gold short seems to be working, agree with sharkie I doubt that's where it was.
ReplyDeleteI got a song for ya' Bill:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtkP5gTX6Hc
CP- Too funny man :)...Later boys. (Work for me. The joint/clubs will have to wait.)
ReplyDeleteYikes. Check out the 3min volume bar in AA just now.
ReplyDeleteAnd another thing; if FRE and FNM would have been fine with a reverse split and without further government intervention, then what does that say about the direction of the economy?
ReplyDeleteWhat a bunch of back and forth BS setting oneself up for cherry-picking down the road...
shark - the FCX trade was an emotional one. I closed out even so no love lost there. the short SPY/long BGZ trades are hard headed stubborn ones. but I think my longer term look at where the markets are going will ultimately win out, despite Vad's fool proof methods.
ReplyDeletea short SPY trade really isn't an astronomical risk to take versus what i think are higher risks being long in light of the clear downturn in econ stats over the past month or two.
So did anyone watch as NLY went from a $15 handle to an $18 handle? That was a spectacular show wasn't it?
ReplyDeleteTrue but remember...in the long run we are all worm food.
ReplyDeleteTake care of the short run, me says, and the long run will take care of itself.
Anyway, you uare a sport to even respond to an asshole like me getting up in your face and writing retarded poetry about dogs named Solar:)
Alternative energy - It just isn't the magic bullet some people think it is.
ReplyDeleteI watched Charlie Rose interview the Vestas CEO last week and he basically admitted even their business is dying on the vine b/c of not having an effective mechanism for storing energy.
You just aren't going to run that heat pump compressor and air handler off a couple of watch batteries. I hate to break it to ya, but physics doesn't work that way.
Think more along the lines of how a nuclear car would use just a thimble full of uranium to push it past 100K miles and there's your electric car. Yep, there's problems with that idea too!
Problem = Every fender-bender would result in neighborhood evacuations!
ReplyDeletefrom back in the days when fenders actually bent:)
ReplyDeleteshark - no worries. we all have our opinions and we're not always correct.
ReplyDeletespeaking of opinions - 2nd, are you looking to get back into C with Fin Reg resolution coming up? You liked it at 5, right? what about 4?
yeah C made a nice double bottom/higher low thingy and is probably buyable....Don't forget your kid....Buy him a zombie bank!
ReplyDeleteNow who's got the balls to say "Red Close"?
added a few SPY June 30 $113 puts at $1.71 ONLY for a short term trade.
ReplyDeleteFunny, the market is up big and VIX is up? Maybe we should be selling calls?
shark - you know my take on a red close.
ReplyDeleteYeah I do. Actually I see that as a very viable possibility. That would be great news for you because it would be a strong indicator that a correction might continue here.
ReplyDeleteyeah, we'll see in another few hours. by the way, i completely disagree with this whole china reval being good. maybe in the long, long term, but not now. we don't need our goods to be more expensive. i get all of my products for my furniture business from china one way or the other and this will increase my costs.
ReplyDeleteto further reinforce this notion of increased costs, look at RTH and basically all retailers today
ReplyDeleteDavid...UNG coming at you on the tracks....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/california-on-verge-of-system-failure/article1609891/
ReplyDeleteyeesh. and i'm staying put in san diego because why?
TOF:
ReplyDeleteHere you go.....
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/props-to-br-bond-bubble-deleveraging/
Absolutely, Chinese products will tend to be more expensive. That's precisely the way free markets are supposed to operate.
ReplyDeleteI think it's the best real news we've heard in a very long time, yea sure maybe not for the short term but hopefully the market will eventually realize free trade is good and bid on it. Drop the trade barriers and government interventions that put us here so commerce can resume. Piling on more debt isn't a long term solution without free trade.
geez...what's going on with the commodities today? look at UNG, USO, GLD...
ReplyDeletechicken - i think the problem is our economy doesn't need ANY price hikes right now, be it with taxes or rising input prices. i think we're right at a big turning point and anything can tip us back into a downturn.
ReplyDeleteall outta PAL average price 3.72
ReplyDeleteI saw that AA had a large move up today, reaching $12 (the cost basis for about 1/2 of my position), and so I just sold August $12 calls against those shares for $0.69, so as to reduce my cost basis even further or exit that additional AA purchase at a gain.
ReplyDeleteI haven't finished reading through today's comments yet, but if you guys have not already addressed this issue, can anyone guess WTF has happened to commodity prices at 12noon EST? They all fell off a cliff, including UNG...
V off @ 83.20. Way to sweet for a position that large.
ReplyDeleteHey David,
ReplyDeleteWhat's happening is the Dollar's rising like a mofo....
TOF, do you believe the concept of foreign trade isn't completely distorted? I think it is, and I also think I see a process of reform emerging.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm completely off base and it's perfectly acceptable for the world's 2nd largest economy to keep their currency out of the free market..... Maybe all currencies should be manipulated to suit the needs of the deciders.....
Or maybe my concept of the entire subject is somehow distorted, in which case I'm asking you guys to try setting me straight.
Shark, PAL has a good fundamental story, but if these fundamentals are a factor in your decisions, then you are an investor. And if you are an investor, then you should buy LOW. The time to buy low will be when the current market rebound subsides and S&P drops below 1000. PAL *will not* be able to withstand the next leg down in the broad market.
ReplyDeletePAL hit a sell limit order today at $3.78 for a small position I opened at $3.38 in May.
Good job on the PAL sale.
ReplyDeleteI am looking to get back in cheaper.
Chicken - I think in the long term it is good, but we need some stability in our debt structure and economy before anything like this happens. The amount of money dumped into China over the past decade is astronomical and if this ends up causing prices to go up over time, it will take a while for companies to move their operations to other areas with lower costs...I think this could be another hit on S&P earnings
ReplyDeleteGreat work on PAL Sharkie!!
ReplyDeleteHoping some of my energy plays come in a little more....
Testing the market?
ReplyDeleteWas today a test of the market to see what the response would be prior to making a set of decisions during the G-20?
Shark, the rise in the dollar at 12pm seems to be a rather small one, and if such a small bump up was able to cause a major reversal in oil and PMs from a gap up to a gap down, then something is really wrong with the market now (all the buyers have VERY weak hands).
ReplyDeleteCraig, UNG is coming my way, but sine I am not a momentum player and I don't like to use stops, I prefer to wait until a prices become real good. That would happen when UNG drops below $8.
ReplyDelete"I think this could be another hit on S&P earnings "
ReplyDeleteOh man, we're trying to be way too simplistic.
I think what you mean is if the yuan were appreciated too rapidly, some companies living large on the presumption the yuan would remain manipulated stand to loose.
I'll agree, but then I wouldn't anticipate China growth would be sacrificed so easily, haven't they already stated any moves would be weighed and measured?
Mark, have you done anything about SGG today? It hit my buy stop limit at $44, getting me back into the small position (100 shares) I opened at $41.79 at the same price I sold it last week ($44).
ReplyDelete"if such a small bump up was able to cause a major reversal in oil and PMs from a gap up to a gap down, then something is really wrong with the market now"
ReplyDeleteGood observation, the market has every reason to be extremely nervous and could dart in the downward direction faster then you could say jackrabbit. I especially appreciate the reference to gaps up and down, as if maybe a filling of gaps should be anticipated as normal.
Chicken - yeah, that's probably an oversimplification. My negative bias is probably clouding my judgment in those regards.
ReplyDeleteBBY broke support...
ReplyDeleteanother flash crash?
ReplyDeleteI confess I am surprised PAL seems to be showing nothing at 3.50...no signs of buying. odd.
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark...made a nice roll:)
I may bite the bullet and put on a small PAL pos here.
Keep the S&P 500's 200 DMA in mind at 1,110.78. First attempt held.
ReplyDeletethere goes the 200 DMA. no interest in being long anything now.
ReplyDeleteOr possibly not:)
ReplyDeleteWell, I sold brilliantly this morning, that much is quite clear:)
ReplyDeleteTOF -- good thing you got back quickly into your BGZ and SPY short!
ReplyDeleteShark: why did you get out of your PAL at $3.72? You were saying that it is a long-term winner, so did something in the daily chart earlier today tell you that PAL was going down?
ok bought some PAL just now
ReplyDeleteahhh...a major battle is going on at the 200 DMA>
ReplyDeletejust playing the swings man...and drinking a nice Italian Toscana!
ReplyDeletealright...closed my SPY puts at $2.6 that I bought at $1.71. That was one of the more profitable trades I have had in a long while.
ReplyDeletetook my profits on my SPY puts and added to BGZ at $14.50 after hours.
ReplyDeleteNot exactly a bullish close.
ReplyDeleteVery specifically David I sold a lot of PAL right near the high of the 20 minute opening range. I had always planned to take a lot fo profits quick 'cause my position size was too big but I put on balls of steel.
ReplyDeleteI don't have a shitload of money like some of you guys do after bilking your employers for years, what I have I stole fair and square:)
Then after everything began to fail I sold the rest and as I just said, even though I'm not thrilled aboout U.S. equities at this exact moment, I would have felt like a shithead if I hadn't at least bought some of the PAL back near the days' low.
Will it work out? Who cares? I have a lot of house money and am willing to be surprised. It is the fact that it's house money that allows you to play the game right. And if you were willing to buy it at 3.80, you gotta love it at 3.50 right?
This action would give a goose constipation.
ReplyDelete2nd
ReplyDeletethe close was not bad under the circumstances.
All these same idiots will be buying tomorrow morning, when hope springs eternal:)
Good trades there Mr. Sharkie, smart, very smart! ;)
ReplyDeleteI agree with Shark...the close could have been worse. But it was bad enough for me to add to my short. I may buy a bank or two though heading into Fin Reg resolution.
ReplyDeleteWell, shark, a combination of good skill, good intuition and good luck is winning combination. Good job on your PAL trade!
ReplyDeleteI hold in my lap an orphan baby duck that has doubled in size over the period of a few days and incredibly desperate for companionship.
ReplyDeleteWhat's a mother to do?
I am placing a buy limit order for 500 shares of HNUZF at $6.4, which should equate to UNG being around $8.
ReplyDeleteThanks David. Intuition is key....
ReplyDeleteMost of us in life learn to ignore it right?
No employer at all in past 28 years here...
ReplyDeleteAnd the way things are in the economy, probably won't ever have a job again, either.
I haven't had a job since early May 2002.....
ReplyDeleteAnd I'm totally fucking unemployable!
(just kidding, if anyone wants to offer me a high-paid job:)...I'll show up, I promise:)
ReplyDeleteman all of you guys are a bunch of slackers!
ReplyDeletei have a work from home tax job and own 2 businesses and i'm sure i don't have as much as you guys!
10 years for me, but sometimes I'll show up to the local marina and they always try putting me to work.
ReplyDeleteI probably should try my hand at my own business...
Check out the Baltic Dry Index:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=bdiy%3Aind
down another 3.5% today. It's basically gone down about 40% in a month.
sharkie in rare form today. drinking italian toscana at 12 something. lol
ReplyDeletei look forward to coming here to read and laugh.
so, what about exxon today> it was rated a sell. i don't get it when oil is supposed to go up.
i am thinking this is all about currency, not stocks. so, the big question is when do we expect the usd to start falling?
I think it is soon but what do i know?
2nd! you always change pages when I post.
ReplyDelete:(
S&P damn near hit the 50DMA this morning didn't it? Then right came back down to settle just over the 200DMA.
ReplyDelete