Monday, June 21, 2010
6/22/10 Who Are You
I took the tube back out of town
Back to O'Reilly's Inn
I felt a little like a dying bear
And reached for the holy Gin
I stretched back and I hiccoughed
And threw back the Tanqueray
Eleven hours in the trenches
God, there's got to be another way
I bought a little FXP around noon pst @ 36.35 for the hell of it.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Bill is/was also short China, something he mentioned in the WIR prior to last Sunday's (or maybe even the one before that).
ReplyDeleteNow that a shitload of (China) bears have jumped ship and are floating in lifeboats waiting for helicopters to arrive, I decided to open a position in FXP and hope for the best.
Actually, I should have sold the FXP at 36.78, but for some reason I thought the markets would keep selling off. It's times like this that one feels like asking Mr. Market 'Who are you- Who the fuck are you?'
ReplyDeleteHis only reply, if he bothers to reply at all, would have to be 'You can get some sleep tonight, if you can cash out and walk away.'
tof- You should read TK's 'blow-by-blow' account of the last 24 hours:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.slopeofhope.com/
Excerpts-
the moment I saw the news this weekend about the Yuan easing, I had a sinking feeling today (Monday) might be one of the worst trading days of my life. I didn't really grasp what the Yuan float news would mean, but once I read that Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama enthusiastically embraced the "good news", I was pretty sure my goose was cooked. After all, I was virtually totally short, and my portfolio was about 120% committed.
So my stomach was in knots Sunday, anticipating the opening of the Euro at 2 in the afternoon. Those knots went into spasms when the Euro exploded higher at the open. My worst fears settled down as the Euro softened up, but when the /ES opened up 14 points higher, I really started to worry.
On the way back home from Tahoe, I noticed the sudden and unexpected plunge in both the Euro and the /ES (I haven't read comments for the past two days, so I'm totally out of the loop as to what has happened the past 48 hours). The /ES gains were cut in half. My glimmer of hope, however, was soon dashed at dinnertime, as all the markets pushed to yet new highs. (Excuse the blow-by-blow, but the past 24 hours have felt very, very long, and I'm just reliving them for you here).
When I went to bed, I was seriously considering simply closing all my positions and closing up shop for the rest of the quarter in order to retain some profit for Q2. That was a disappointing prospect, because I've worked terribly hard, and simply throwing everything away in order to protect my remaining profits and bring risk to zero was an unsettling option, but it was one I was very seriously considering. I had a feeling it was going to be a very rough day.
More excerpts from TK-
ReplyDeleteI then made a decision to do something I don't think I've ever done: there's a special button on my trading platform labeled Xcl All Orders. It deletes every stop order in place (and there were 190 of them). I decided to click it, and I watched all the orders vanish (this, by the way, is the Willy Wonka reference; "I've pushed al the buttons except for this one"). It was a very considered decision. My feeling was that I would get popped out of a ton of positions at the worst prices of the day, and it was worth the risk to let the market be open for half an hour and then, one by one, reset all 190 of those prices using the latest information.
The market opened, and wham, it showed a loss of $130,000. That loss bounced around from $125,000 to $145,000, and I carefully watched. I then started going through all my charts, and by the time I was through, I had only decided a handful of positions merited closing.
Thank God I decided to cancel the orders and re-evaluate them. It is something I probably will almost never do, but in this instance, it was essential.
S&P was heading straight for the 50DMA this morning wasn't it? Then came right back down to settle just over the 200DMA.
ReplyDeletevb - I think the U$D won't weaken until the fears over Europe's economy subside. Asia didn't read the Chinese fine print (Katakana or Kanji?) and took off dragging Europe along for the ride and the US market nearly took the bait before reality set in.
Of course I say this not knowing what really happened but my impression is this morning's action was based upon jumping the gun of false hope.
Test to see if I can post -- tried 4 times today and none went through...
ReplyDeleteWow, TK hadn't anticipated the implications surrounding the yuan peg? The fine print(trump card) saved his ass.
ReplyDeleteWell, this is just my worthless/meaningless opinion, but I wouldn't want to be the guy who bought into this morning's strength.
ReplyDeleteProbably famous last words. I had the same feeling when Bill posted (out of character) to some newbie several days ago that 'Let's just say if you bought [gold] this morning, then I sold it to you.'
Well, I think his post will soon be proven correct. And so will mine.
2nd - that guy from slope of hope is playing with fire. i'm sure he has a big balance to play with...lets say it's $2 Million...WTF...a 7 or 8% unrealized loss in ONE DAY!?!?! sounds like he's fighting with fire. i'm bearish, but not dumb.
ReplyDeleteor i should say...i'm bearish, but not a gambler.
ReplyDeleteor perhaps, i'm bearish but too much of a wuss to take on that much risk?
Wasn't it Cheech and Chong's movie "Still Smokin'" where they had the tag team wrestling match where the Italians were fighting the invisible man and wouldn't come to the rescue of their team mate by tagging them from ringside?
ReplyDeleteWife and kids bought me an i-Touch for Father's Day.
ReplyDeleteIt will probably take me a week to even get around to figuring out how to use it.
Yeah, TK is definitely a gambler. But he has the funds to gamble with.
ReplyDeleteStill, 'stomach in knots' is not my kind of mental game.
ReplyDelete"I wouldn't want to be the guy who bought into this morning's strength."
ReplyDeleteDon't you mean the sucker? I was a sucker for not selling to him b/c the yuan news was a fake headline (until it's not?).
You're right in saying that's what I'm thinking, CP. But I can't get away with saying that yet. Right now, the sucker could just as easily be me.
ReplyDeleteThis game is so rigged, we're probably all suckers just opening trading accounts.
ReplyDeleteAnd I wouldn't be immediately buying Chinese equities if the peg were to become a real headline unless they were independent of Chinese export.
ReplyDeleteEven so, CADC looked pretty weak out of the gate.
Off to an OK start- Nikkei has the decency to open down -1%.
ReplyDeleteCan anybody think of a recent example when China released some market related news and then didn't immediately follow up with an about face clarification?
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with that?
Here's what I think. Prior to any announcement, all high-ranking Chinese officials make sure family members and assorted lieutenants have massive bets in place in Macau. They release the 'news' in a way designed to move the markets in the desired direction. As soon as the bets pay off, they clarify the statements.
ReplyDeleteRemember- China is not bound by the same politically-correct bullshit prevalent in the developed world.
ReplyDeleteConsult your doctor should your yuan erection last more than 4 hours.
ReplyDelete2nd - You're making sense, cut that out!
ReplyDelete2nd- What's an i-touch?
ReplyDeleteThe i-Touch is a cellphone-sized version of the i-Pad. Falls short of the i-Pad as far as capabilities, of course.
ReplyDeleteCP- there is a painful condition that occurs when a certain part of the male anatomy remains swollen with blood for an extended period of time- one that sometimes requires injection of a vasoconstrictor.
ReplyDeleteOr maybe you meant to say 'yuan reaction.' No, you meant erection- Macau was undoubtedly full of 'em this morning.
Mark- http://www.apple.com/ipodtouch/features/
ReplyDeleteThe police were at my house last night asking if we knew this little girl. She was across the street.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.fresnobee.com/2010/06/21/1978376/petaluma-cops-searching-for-caregiver.html
Way to go mom. God people like this make me want to puke. Her house is about 1.5 miles from mine. Can you imagine? She had to cross 2 major roads, in the dark, alone. UFB.
Seems as if the police think the girl had help making it that far.
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, I kinda hope that's not true. I give the cops credit though. They were all over the place here last night through the time I left.
ReplyDeleteI should say, I suppose, that I damn near closed all of my remaining longs when I was here @ 11:00. I really didn't like the tape at all. I'm guessing my luck with V kept me from doing it.
ReplyDeleteNew YTD high with only JPM/HEK left.
FXP- Strange, it is only 2 bucks above the YTD low. Why?
ReplyDeleteAre any of you guys up to date on blood/glucose levels? Mine is fasting 90, 2 hrs after a meal 115. I know these fall into the "normal" range, but they are higher than my historical average. I've looked at a bunch of web sites, and the recommended foods are all over the place. I'm sure I can correct this with a diet modification, I just need a link that seems current.
ReplyDeleteThanks!!!
Do you have a family history of Type 2? I don't think those numbers would cause me any anxiety.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.diabetes.org/food-and-fitness/?utm_source=WWW&utm_medium=GlobalNavFF&utm_campaign=CON
ReplyDeleteToo funny- a sperm bank for women who care as much (or more) about the front/back covers as they do about what's between the covers:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/a-beautiful-people-sperm-bank-2010-06-21/6A37B6BF-D68C-427E-9D53-2AA78C3687BA
The dollar will crash when everyone decides its going up and the last fool buys.
ReplyDelete2nd...You're a doctor aren't you? You know all sorts of medical shit:)
ReplyDeleteMark...Those BS levels are excellent.
I'm not a doctor myself but I used to play doctor growing up.
I'm not an MD, bro. An MD would never joke around about drinking and drugging the way I do.
ReplyDeleteAllow me to fire up this fine shrubbery and consider your perspective:)
ReplyDeleteDr. 2nd- Thanks! No history at all of type 2. I do have high blood pressure, so I'm just trying to be prudent. Don't worry, I'll never get to the point of actually measuring crap. I just figure a few changes here or there can't hurt.
ReplyDeleteDamn... Uncle Buck is stubborn as hell, isn't he?
"Are any of you guys up to date on blood/glucose levels?"
ReplyDeleteI don't currently have the exact figures but I'm quite sure they're within legal limits!
There are actually all kinds of 'Dr.'s out there. The ones I enjoy listening to the most are shrinks:
ReplyDelete(a) Dr. Ruth
(b) Dr. Phil
(c) Dr. Timothy Leary
If I were a betting man, I'd place money on the FED not raising interest rates this year, and not at least until second half of next. The goal is employment driven as I understand it.
ReplyDeleteSo if they were to raise, wouldn't it make sense equities would loose a few toes or would higher rates be interpreted as an economic rebound? I say the former.
So my web based research has come up with this...The heart folks so no fat. The liver folks say no carbs. Don't worry, I'll keep looking until I find the one that says..For breakfast, have 2 very spicy bloody marry's and forget about it!!
ReplyDeleteI'm convinced too many folks have been listening to Dr. Kevorkian lately.
ReplyDeleteA flock of fickle fellows.
FWIW- I finished a good "summer" read this weekend. "The Doomesday Key". Crappy title, but fun.
ReplyDeleteI like Kevorkian.
ReplyDeleteMark, my father has been struggling with a high blood pressure (that stayed consistently in the 150-180 region) for the past couple of years, and when he finally had a blood test a couple of months ago, his blood sugar level was found to be at 220. He was overweight (260lb) and could not get his weight down. Being a smart man, he started reading scientific articles about human metabolism and built a model that explained all his observations: extra dietary intake of sugar made his cells partially resistant to insulin, which in turn resulted in a very high blood sugar level, but in order for his cells to function well and get the required energy from sugar, his body adapted by raising the internal blood pressure so as to get that insulin (with sugar molecules attached to it) into his cells. That's why he felt extremely sleepy when his blood pressure would drop to 120 -- his cells were not getting enough sugar in that case. He then read that extra sugar, being a poison for the body, gets absorbed well by fat cells, and so his extra weight was needed to fight the high sugar level. The only solution, he realized, is to drastically reduce his sugar intake and hope that his body starts being receptive to insulin once again, thereby removing much of the extra sugar from his blood. He went on a strict no sugar diet, and in one month his sugar level dropped consistently to 120, his blood pressure dropped to 100-120 region (and he felt fine with it), and he lost 30 lb of weight (something he couldn't do with ANY other diet). Now, after 2 months, he is already 40lb "thinner" than before and his weight keeps on going down. Interestingly, my father read that fat is the only food that the body does not turn into sugar, and dietary fat reduces the sugar spike in the blood after any food (he had a strong sugar spike even after eating a salad of greens). So in order to keep his sugar level down, he would add a slice of bacon to his salads, and he ate fats without any reservations. Apparently, fatty foods was not the cause of his gaining weight, as he is losing weight with his more fat less sugar diet.
ReplyDeleteMy wife recently read a book about the bad effects of sugar, called "Sugar Blues," and she was shocked to find out in how many ways extra sugar damages our bodies. Accidentally, I stumbled onto yet another way, which is described in
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_glycation_endproduct
She radically changed her diet, removing any foods that had extra sugar added, and I decided to follow her as well. In one month, I lost 10lb of weight, going down from 172 to 162 lb.
So, Mark, simply avoiding foods that have extra sugar in them (sweets or sweetened products) or that turn quickly into sugar (white rice, white flour) should have a very positive impact on your health. Eating fruits or honey is fine, as these are natural foods. Good luck!
If the recent pullback in SGG was just that -- a pullback in a newly established uptrend, then SGG should keep going up now. If, on the other hand, it drops to $43 again, then maybe it has not finished bottoming out yet. Hence, I just placed a sell stop limit order at $43.25/43 for the 100 shares of SGG I purchased today at $44.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/an-invisible-gorilla-is-killing-americas-soul-2010-06-22?pagenumber=2
ReplyDeleteThe spike in the overnight futures based on the vague assurances from China to revalue the yuan higher, an obvious and strictly political move to pre-empt the discussion of their currency manipulation at the upcoming G20 meeting, was used to justify a classic 'wash and rinse' in the price fo stocks, and bring in some coin for the needy Wall Street banks.
ReplyDeleteThis is how the moral hazard of bailing out the Too Big Banks has returned as an unintended consequence, strangling the real economy and the very markets which the bailouts were intended to save by taxing production and capital with the drag of a corruption tax that also had a dampening effect on efficient capital allocation.
The Banks, being fundamentally unreformed and insolvent, with failed business models based on fraud, are unable to make their expected outsized returns using conventional business means. With the mortgage and CDO ponzi scheme collapsed, they must resort to the more familiar soft control frauds in the capital allocation markets, creating and exploiting inefficiencies to support their unsustainable existance. Better that they would have been broken up and liquidated where necessary, rather than being saved without a structural reform.
No matter the rationales put forward, it was an act of political corruption in which the Congress and the last two Administrations are complicit. More and more wealth is being transferred out of the productive economy and into the hands of a financial elite that spends it in the non-productive accumulation of capital, high risk speculation, and hoarding incented by historically low tax rates for the very wealthy.
As I suggested last night, the spike higher in the futures was artificial, and worth fading to the short side. But while it stays above the trendline now around 1110 I would not lean on it too hard, since the threat of a snapback rally in the last hour is always there on these thin volumes. If it breaks down, we are probably heading down to the 1060 support in a roundabout way. The economy is floundering, with about half of US GDP dependent on fraud in financial assets and corporate accounting.
There is also an FOMC rate decision coming up on the 23rd, Wednesday, so we will see some artificial action around that. It is also the day that GTU closes its shelf offering which should take some of the pressure off the unit price.
by http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Futes are flat.
ReplyDeleteso is my beer
ReplyDeleteone word...BLOODSUCKERS!
Sold the FXP pre-market @ 36.39.
ReplyDeleteLandry's back-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The indices started strong and ended weak in a textbook opening gap reversal fashion (OGRe). Study this one for future reference. It's not always this easy. I'll discuss this further in Thursday's show.
This stalling at overbought action suggests that the market has the potential to (at least) challenge the bottom of its recent range.
Most sectors still look questionable. Even Gold stalled out.
I'm still especially bearish on Oil Service and Retail.
Standard disclaimers apply though: honor your stops just in case, take partial profits as offered, and wait for entries on new position
lost a nickle on a 1/4 size pal pos 4rom yesterday
ReplyDeleteno pos....market very iffy.
another solid econ report. i'm just wondering why the markets are even bothering staying up.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Thanks!! I'll post some comments this afternoon, but your dad and I have some things in common.
ReplyDeleteSD started at a Buy, PT/10, buy wunderlich....who ever the hell that is :)
ReplyDeletekeep the 200 DMA in mind, which is currently at 1,111.
ReplyDeleteTook profits in HEK @ 5.05. Just being careful as I have a busy day.
ReplyDeleteLike the blow that'll getcha when you get your picture on the cover of the Rollin' Stone.
ReplyDeleteMade a few hundred trading TZA 6.48_>6.56 + ERY 9.89->10...
ReplyDeletegood job 2nd.
ReplyDeleteI like PAL at 3.33 should it get there today, and I kind of like it's chances of doing so.
Or, I also like PAL OVER 3.57 should it go up and appear able to stay up. One of the two, more or less.
ReplyDeleteFRE/FNM - Both up 7%...
ReplyDeleteLater!!
ReplyDeleteBear attack on S&P?
ReplyDeletenot sure about 3.57
ReplyDeleteall out on my shorts...taking a break from being a bear. on the flip side, i think GOOG is now a buy. I think you will be rewarding in 6 to 12 months if you buy the stock here.
ReplyDeletei opened a small starter position at $496
i'm planning on building out a large position in GOOG over the next few months. I circled the $500 area a while back as a place I'd like to start buying and just because it went to $460 doesn't mean $500 ultimately won't be a good buy point.
ReplyDeletestrange indexes, but PAL looking hopeful here no pos yet
ReplyDeleteAdded a bit more GOOG at $493.
ReplyDeleteshark - i like that call on PAL from a chart perspective...i.e., buying at $3.58 or $3.33
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't have guessed PAL would jump to $3.57 so quickly, wild west rodeo.
ReplyDeleteyeah except with the 200 day sitting at 3.60 a rise above that level and/or material improvement in the underlying might be prudent
ReplyDeleteit's a weird, enigmatic market. Who's ready to call the close?
Very technically, we are sitting right under the 2 week opening range of the year of which I often speak, so actually you'd need to see the s and p heading up into the opening range and staying there in order to feel good about going long.
I haven't a clue which way this unruly elephant is going.
silver did a nice rversal to the upside, having been down nearly 50 cents this am.
ReplyDeleteI am liking PAL more BUT at this time of day caution is the word.
I'd need to see palladium go positive which it may or something else dramatic to get in, and probably above the 200
back in pal and yes i sold it like a fluffer this morning.
ReplyDeletego up ya frigging motherjumper!
ReplyDeleteRhetorical question...
ReplyDeleteDid any perfect-ten uber blonde ever move to Hollywood dreaming of becoming a product presenter on "The Price is Right"?
You know there were hoards of blond women trying to get themselves on "The Price is Right".
ReplyDeleteYep, every time I look at the PAL chart I discover another encouraging aspect.
ReplyDeleteMy patience with UNG did get rewarded, and now I got a shot at reloading it again under $8. I just bought 500 shares of HNUZF at $6.50.
ReplyDeletebought 2 x June $110 SPY calls at $2.05 for a quick trade...looking to make $100.
ReplyDeleteif I make that hundo I'll use it to buy a nice bottle of wine for my birthday tomorrow.
ReplyDeletelooks like no birthday gift for me! i might have to do a straddle to guard against a pullback now that the 200 DMA has been breached.
ReplyDeleteHappy b-day TOF! I'm having Tang.
ReplyDeletePXP @ 22.50. Let's see if it can hold the 20.
ReplyDeleteI decided to place a sell limit order at $7.50 for the 500 shares of HNUZF I picked up earlier today at $6.50, so as to have a nice, round, $500 trading profit.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if UNG drops below $7.80, I'll sell 5 $8 puts on it, so as to "reload" (close to $7) the 500 shares of UNG I sold at $8.23 a couple of weeks ago.
seeing that the market is now "firmly" below the 200 DMA and is likely to feel additional pressure, i straddled my 2 SPY calls with 5 June 30 $112 SPY puts at $2.05. this should ultimately allow me to achieve my goal of a nice bottle of wine for my birthday tomorrow.
ReplyDeletePXP off @ 22.40. Looking at the sector in general, some other plays broke support today, so PXP might have a hard time going at it alone.
ReplyDeleteAlso closed JPM for a nice dinner. Had a 3 day weekend covered at one point :)
ReplyDeleteOK...I closed my SSO in the IRA for a 2.2% loss. Now, of course, this will be unavailable to trade for 3 days.
ReplyDeletewow...these options move quickly. i now have $200 profit in my straddle but I don't think I want to close it out given the clear downward pressure on the markets. I'm pushing for a mini b-day vacation. i'm sure my girlfriend won't mind if i pay.
ReplyDeleteI'm holding off on buying any more GOOG for now...i currently have a small position and will probably add as the markets correct toward the 950 level.
ReplyDeleteThe market is down now, and PAL is being dragged down together with it. As I wrote yesterday, one should invest in any market-dependent stocks only if one thinks that there is a green light ahead for the US economy. Otherwise, one should wait for a sharp leg down in the market (as 2nd_ave is waiting) before even thinking about investing into any stocks (UNG and SGG are excluded).
ReplyDeleteA quote from Hussman:
For our part, the most important indication from market action is that we've observed broad, simultaneous and high-volume deterioration in market action, followed by an advance to prior support that has largely cleared the initial oversold condition. As I noted last week, once internals have deteriorated, "the steepest losses in a market downturn typically follow the 'fast, furious, prone-to-failure' rallies that clear an oversold condition." As usual, that's not a forecast, but it's a tendency we've observed too often to rule out.
Man, I am glad I exited my large TBT position flat once I saw that it couldn't make any decent rebound after a collapse in May...
ReplyDeletei completely forgot that i had a bunch of bgz in my 401k account and i sold that at a decent gain (i think my basis was around $14.5). i'm looking to go to cash and enjoy the rest of the week. getting a little sick of focusing on the markets and need a break.
ReplyDeletestill in PAL not thrilled but just hanging loose with a small (compared to the other day) position.
ReplyDeleteHmmm, I've been playing knives and dead cats on TBT all day. Its been very scary. I buy panics and they just get worse, so when I run out of money in the main trading acct, I use the secondary one. I even ran out there at 38.01 so had to use my IRA. Out last time at 38.15, and flat now. Net effect is the main trading acct is down $270 on the day, but the secondary is up $1370, and the IRA never filled, leaving me up $1100 net on about $750k risk (LOL). Anyway it was scary and I'm just gonna stay out. Likely it should be bought, therefore. Because that is my usual mistake.
ReplyDeleteWhy, oh why, am I looking at FTWR again :)
ReplyDeleteCRYP @ 2.16. I know.......
ReplyDeleteLate dip buyers today got spanked.
ReplyDeleteCheapy..You crazy dude :)))
i bought some more SPY $112 June 30 Puts at $2.45 when the S&P bounced. I now have 2 calls and 6 puts. considering going flat prior to close.
ReplyDeleteGOOG is surprisingly strong today but i'm going to stand clear of that and all other longs.
You can just call me "LUCKY" from now on, LOL.
ReplyDeleteLooks ugly for end of day from here
I don't expect we're going to see much of an upside without jobs growth, seems like the market was counting on a faster recovery but the damage has spread too far and wide.
ReplyDeleteEither that, or we're being jacked around.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, my opinion is that until the DEBT is erased, at least back to easily repayable levels, there can be NO recovery. That is the lesson from Japan the past 20 yrs.
ReplyDeleteExpiration of my short puts on UCO and PXP, reloading of some TWM and SKF, and a purchase of a few August+September SPY puts during the recent market rebound have tipped my OptionsHouse account (where I do most of my trading because of the small $2.95 transaction fee) into a net short position once again, and it is up nicely today, continuing its almost uninterrupted streak of up days since the start of the May correction. So now I am ready for the next leg down in the market.
ReplyDeleteexcellent work, David. I'm mostly in cash right now because I need to take a break but I too had a solidly profitable day primarily because of BGZ and my SPY puts. my GOOG is down 1.6% which I may have to cut loose now that the S&P is firmly underneath the 200 DMA.
ReplyDelete