Tuesday, June 29, 2010
6/30/10 Wednesday's Worse
Neither my first post with that title, nor my first posting of Eva Cassidy's version of the song. Highly appropriate under the circumstances, however.
Every once in awhile, the market will continue to sell off without a bounce. I have no clue if that will be the case tomorrow, but there's no reason to think otherwise:
(a) EOQ window-dressing? Forget it. A 'meaningful' rally would require a 3%+ move. Fund managers probably have more on their minds right now than a single-quarter bonus anyway.
(b) A ton of knife-catchers with still-visible scars from the 2008 sell-off.
(c) Sidelined investors (and that includes me) have no reason to buy at these levels. We're all waiting for DJIA 8500.
(d) What reason is there to think prices take the DJIA back to 11000? I can't think of any- I doubt even a short squeeze could take us back to that level. Ergo, no reason for anyone to buy right now.
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To what extent was the market oversold in March '09?
ReplyDeleteHey, thanks for that link TOF. Gonna look it over.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeletehave a look
http://rsi-trader.blogspot.com/2009/03/relative-strength-index-screening-mar-6.html
it was like this in the reverse back in late April 2010, which was one of the many reasons why I decided to bail out of my bullish view.
ReplyDeletecheck it out:
ReplyDeletehttp://rsi-trader.blogspot.com/2010/04/relative-strength-index-screening-apr_30.html
Oversold can get worked off churning around for a few days.
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking back to the (seemingly) unending string of overbought conditions last summer/fall, which somehow all managed to get 'worked off,' until we were 3000 points higher.
QCOM - Still hasn't made it back to $44.
ReplyDeleteCrashes don't necessarily follow the usual 'laws' of price action.
ReplyDeleteWhat is price action to begin with? Crowd psychology.
During a crash, the crowd panics.
I would wager that every close leading up to the October '87 crash resulted in oversold readings. But at some point, panic took over and no one gave a ---- about indicators. They just wanted out.
TSLA- I don't get it. I did some work on it, and other than the "small" issue size, WTF?
ReplyDeleteAnother WTF....Who the hell would want to have an affair with Al Gore? Remember, we're talking about Al Gore!!!
Investors who actually succeeded in capturing most of the counter-rally have 'profits' to protect. I don't think they'll be hanging around after say, DJIA 9500.
ReplyDeleteThought this was interesting....
ReplyDeleteJune 29, 2010 21:42 ET
* Taylor's North American Financial to invest in TIB
* NAFH to own 99 pct of TIB, can invest $175 mln more
* Taylor's group has raised $900 mln to invest in banks
By Paritosh Bansal
NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - A former Bank of America executive's banking startup agreed on Tuesday to inject $175
million in Florida's TIB Financial Corp, making it the latest investment by private investors in a U.S. bank.
North American Financial Holdings, which has raised about $900 million, will own about 99 percent of the Naples-based
lender after the deal closes, and also have the right to invest up to $175 million more in the next 18 months.
North American Financial, run by former Bank of America Vice Chairman Eugene Taylor, is one of several pools of capital
that were put together over the last year by experienced bank managers to invest in the sector.
These funds were created as investors such as private equity looked for ways to buy banks, including failed institutions
from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, on the cheap amid the financial crisis, while complying with the requirements of a
strictly regulated industry.
But such groups have done few deals as they face regulatory skepticism and are crowded out by both public markets
willing to buy into stock offerings and healthier banks looking to take advantage of their weaker rivals.
Private investors are turning instead to smaller, open banks that are undervalued but have problems that can be assessed
and fixed, and then possibly used as platforms for further acquisitions.
As a longtime lieutenant to Bank of America CEOs, Taylor oversaw the integration of dozens of banks, especially in the U.S.
Southeast. His group plans to invest in undercapitalized banks to create a strong regional bank.
TIB has about $1.7 billion in assets and 28 branches in the Florida Keys, Homestead, Naples, Bonita Springs, Fort Myers,
Cape Coral and Venice.
Taylor, Christopher Marshall, Bruce Singletary and Kenneth Posner -- all of North American Financial -- will join TIB's
board. Marshall and Singletary are also former Bank of America executives. The deal is expected to close in the third
quarter.
The move comes after an aborted bid last year involving Taylor to recapitalize a small Florida bank.
Crestview Partners LP, Fortress Investment Group and Lightyear Capital struck a deal last year to invest in First Southern
Bancorp Inc and install Taylor as its head, but that deal fell apart, sources have previously told Reuters.
North American Financial was advised by UBS on the deal, while TIB was advised by Sandler O'Neill. (Reporting by Paritosh
Bansal, editing by Bernard Orr) (For more M&A news and our DealZone blog, go to http://www.reuters.com/deals)
"overbought conditions last summer/fall, which somehow all managed to get 'worked off,' until we were 3000 points higher. "
ReplyDeleteLike TOF points out, it's not an exact science and I'll add to that the pendulum typically swings to extremes.
It's all in the eye of the beholder?
I see quite a few stocks sitting on their bottom trend lines here, just where traders would take them while waiting for further instruction.
The mildly positive futures we're seeing right now are IMO exactly what we should be seeing right now (if the prediction is for another gap down on Wednesday). Price movements right now are likely dominated by weak bears covering shorts. Whereas fully-invested mutual fund holders are stuck in purgatory, unable to do much until market open- at that point, volume will tell us how much fear there really is.
ReplyDeleteHow many times did I type 'right now' in the above post?
ReplyDeleteMark - Al Gore - Be my guest, whatever floats your boat! That Q is nearly identical to sharkie's contemplating blond "bimbo" Hollywood migration.
ReplyDeleteTwo ways to trade tomorrow's open, should it gap.
ReplyDelete(a) Buy into a large gap down.
(b) Short a large gap up.
Gore had an affair?
ReplyDeleteVolume might not be a reliable indicator going into the holiday? I can't help but think this action has something to do with end of quarter and that it's justified based upon the economic factors that have rolled over.
ReplyDeleteThese prices aren't low enough to tickle my funny bone.
Yes, apparently he actually found time to set aside his affair with himself long enough to pull a Clinton.
ReplyDelete2nd- Right now, I'd take a shot at either A or B. However, that's just how I feel right now :))....
ReplyDeleteBut I'm being serious, I'll trade either way if it happens.
Hang on...I think Big Al's here.
Personally, if I wanted out, I couldn't care less whether we were going into a holiday. If anything, I'd make sure I was out before a three-day weekend.
ReplyDeleteI think the question is:
ReplyDeleteHow do you price in the probability/possibilty of a depression?
CP- Serious question...I'm still wondering what the hell happened at, or just after, the close Friday. I get the rebalancing issue but if effected a huge amount of stocks. Again, take a look at BMRC for example.
ReplyDeleteI'm doing my best to put myself into neutral shoes, but I can't come up with a reason to buy the sell-off.
ReplyDeleteChaepy- Easy. Take a look at any stock over a 400 day period instead of a 180 day period. I just did that, and the over sold condition we're talking about seemed far less over sold!!
ReplyDelete2nd- Yep, hard to believe isn't it?
How would I price in a depression? I would take the '09 low, use that as a baseline for an exaggerated/extreme pricing-in of an extended recession, and lop another 25-30% off that.
ReplyDeleteRemember when 'vinod' predicted C would hit $10, and we all 'sort of' believed it?
ReplyDeleteI think we all 'sort of' believe a retest of 6500 will occur.
Here's Hulbert with an update on this guy who has been mostly in cash since 1980- he's about to top Hulbert's list of newsletter writers.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/top-adviser-since-1980-mostly-in-cash-2010-06-29
Oh, so BP is going to lower their gasoline prices in an attempt to counter boycotts! That's not a bad idea, didn't think they could...
ReplyDeleteDamn, what does that mean? That anyone who has positioned his 401(k) in cash since 1980 is now at the head of the pack?
ReplyDelete2nd- Your last comment is interesting, and I 'sort of' believe it. However, I'm inclined to trade against that scenario.
ReplyDelete2nd- I would have been way ahead if I never played this game...But I only started "investing" in Jan. 07. Tough entry point.
ReplyDeleteThe only way that scenario would unfold is for the crowd to trade against it.
ReplyDeleteYou're not saying you were in cash until January '07, right?
ReplyDeleteMark - I have to admit I'm still a little baffled as well, quite a few stocks had higher than normal volume that weren't even on the rebalance list while their net price movement was negligible. Almost as if someone unloaded while someone else bought in some kind of pre-arranged deal.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind, I still haven't figured out how the mechanism works where high volume can occur without a price change in one direction or the other... Sudden high volume and nearly flat prices don't compute for me.
Okay, I had thought of one potential explanation where there was a crowd that had accumulated prior to the rebalance and then distributed into the rebalance somehow affecting price only briefly.
ReplyDeleteRussel rebalance - So if we had prepared ourselves in advance, we might have been able to capitalize on it? I'm not really sure how we could've or if it's possible...
ReplyDeleteI've played the rebalancing game a few times. It's tricky. No surprise. I would say over time, you're lucky if you don't lose money trying to game it.
ReplyDelete2nd- Before I started my own business, I had a small 401K at my previous employer. In Jan 07 I had enough cash, about 200K, to feel comfortable "investing" some of it. I did what I thought was correct and for the next year averaged down. I think I finally bailed totally in Jan. 08, and started trading. I've never made any money in real terms going back to day one. None. Wild guess? Lost 150-200K.
ReplyDeleteHere's an excerpt from 'Goatmug' at SOH:
ReplyDelete'Just as we saw in October of 2008 we are seeing a move in Treasuries that is abnormal. Buyers of Treasuries in size are typically NOT Mom and Pop (although I bet we have more Moms and Pops in there than 2 years ago). Bad things happen when lots of people are willing to put their money away for 30 years and receive 3.94% or sock it away in the 10 year for 2.95%.
'This move in treasury rates is not good and I will be watching the bond market for additional signals that confirm this breakout. This is not a moment to be a hero and take on a bunch of extra risk. In fact, if we do get some sort of stock market rally, it must be used as a opportunity to unload some long positions.'
"anyone who has positioned his 401(k) in cash since 1980 is now at the head of the pack? "
ReplyDeleteWell, I recall a broker contacting me trying to sell me some K-mart stock and almost immediately after hanging up I felt an urge to buy a chunk of WMT! Years later I wished I had. Then about that time AMD stock was trading around $5 and I had a similar urge but was too busy (AMD proceeded to triple).
Then there was that time when Juniper IPO'd.....
So I thought to myself that once I had the opportunity to spend a little time with it, I'd open an account and try to buy some beaten up stocks.
Long story short, here I am.
That should be I bailed in Jan. 09. I cleared a bunch of 30-40% losers, and have been positive ever sense.
ReplyDeleteI think it's generally true that gains in the market are inversely related to the number of trades one makes.
ReplyDeleteSo the question of who's buying T's comes back again?
ReplyDeleteMaybe the Chinese or the FED? Call me paranoid but it feels like some kind of financial war between countries or massive transfer of wealth is being waged in the background we're not being told about...
I completely believe it's possible to trade every day and make money consistently if you really know what you're doing and have the experience.
ReplyDeleteTruthfully, I'm not willing to make that kind of investment but after these past couple of years may have done so inadvertently, or involuntarily.
If necessity is the mother of invention how is it most inventions are accidental?
Before anyone starts to feel sorry for me, don't. I just choose a different path. Patricia and I bought a dump for a house and used all of our cash to re-build it over the years. Bought in 1998 for 218K and now it is almost done. Worst case scenario, it's worth 800K. I owe 200K on it. I needed a place to raise a family, and glad I did. I have enough cash to live on for many years if needed.
ReplyDeleteI kinda like the idea of buying a well worn home and fixing it up. That way you get real familiar with it and can take the time to make it better than it ever was.
ReplyDeleteThe challenge I have with new construction lies with my lack of experience in how to lay things out and taking short cuts. I wish like hell I'd put a basement in this place, essentially doubling the size for not that much more money really but I didn't want the hassle of dealing with some whiner gouging me and complaining about this and that and how I should do things his way.
Should that have been "chose"?
ReplyDeleteYep, we knew what you meant. I do the same thing occasionally, no big deal.
ReplyDelete1. T's: Think about Obama at the G-20 saying "we all can't cut spending/pay off debt at the same time". There IS a lot of tension with China/Germany/Europe.
ReplyDelete2. 2nd...every morning we get an e-mail from Landry and it says, "trail and scale" and take profits as offered. Remember, he's short and his clients are short, so they are taking profits as they go on short positions and likely reloading on any rallies. They're not alone.
3. We aren't anywhere near the lows of 2009 yet T's are getting close to their lows as are big blue chips like Exxon, within .90 of the low.
Seems like we're actually in a worse comparison to 3/09. Look at the China ETF's. What's holding? Div payers like LINE and the pipelines. Traders are going for yield.
Oh...#4: Depression.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget who's at the Fed. Helicopter hat Ben. He has already shot his load on the last crisis, he only has one trick pony left.
Print baby print.
"I've never made any money in real terms going back to day one. None. Wild guess? Lost 150-200K."
ReplyDeleteMark, are you saying that you lost through investing almost all of 200K that you started out with in 2007? Your recent position sizes suggest that your current portfolio is greater than 200K -- did you make it all back by trading?
That's what the man is trying to say.
ReplyDeleteBill Cara lost him over 100 large. Damn. Bill you ought to offer rebates baby, you suck!
For anoyone who went long yesterday, today's ADP report must come like a sharp stick in the eye:)
ReplyDeleteI think this is a toxic market.
I trust this 1040 support like I trust my ex...
They're both waiting to go down until after I leave the house!
4th of July....
ReplyDeleteI pledge allegiance to Wal-MArt, to Goldman Sachs.... To the United Red States of stupidity.
And to the Republicans for which we work, one nation fucked, divided, with the liberty to exploit and blacken the waters, and justice for those who can afford an expensive lawyer and to schtup the judge too:)
Time for a bong hit:)
FF,
ReplyDeleteBen will be remembered for avoiding the depression and causing instead the ONLY thing worse possible, and that is a dollar collapse akin to that of the Continental Dollar, whose infamous worthlessness is almost legendary to true students of history, and caused the need for the use of "Spanish dollars" made of silver to need to be used as honest money and currency, and for the Constitution to ban forever the use of anything but coins as money.
There's nothing bullish about the global markets right now. More sell-offs today. They really should get it out of the way with a real blow-off panic crash.
ReplyDeleteYield on the 10-yr approaching April '09 lows...
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Well, the market challenged the bottom of its recent range. Will it hold? No one knows for sure (not even the guy with the stuffed animals on TV).
I like to err on the side of the trend. With that said, the big blue arrow still points down. So ask me yes or no and my answer is yes.
Continue to use this opportunity to scale and trail on existing shorts. You might want to hold off on new shorts for now.
Futures were actually strong when I started my first cup of coffee but now they are in the negative column.
Boy...slow start on volume. Guess everyone is out buying their fireworks.
ReplyDeleteDavid- No, I have not made it all back. Not even close. Once I pulled the plug on the buy and hold approach, I've been able to beat the averages with far less risk on the table. Honestly, I'm not sure by how much because money flows in and out of my account for non trading reasons.
My position sizes are usually 15/30/45K.
Landry clarification:
ReplyDelete"Yes" about support holding should have read "no" (i.e. I think the downtrend will persist and support will be taken out).
My apologies for the added fluff in your inbox.
Nice reaction to the Chicago PMI so far. C/F/BP are stand outs.
ReplyDeleteSpain: "Banks on July 1 need to repay 442 billion euros "
ReplyDeleteBuying fear at yesterdays close bought me a decent lunch. Now it's time to stand aside and watch for entertainment.
ReplyDeleteToday: Suck 'em in just prior to the Friday jobs report?
ReplyDeleteCan't find any reason to take on risk here.
ReplyDeleteGot my dividend from FTFL today. Believe it or not but that's the first dividend I have ever received. Kinda nice
ReplyDeletegeez...what is up with GOOG? is it a dying company or what?
ReplyDeleteas a major tell, i'm watching how AAPL trades of late. It definitely looks like its rolling over. I told myself kinda without thought that if AAPL drops below $260 then this market is done for.
hi
ReplyDeleteshark your pledge of allegiance,
So funny!
thanks for the mid day laugh
Yep, sharkie's one of the good guys.
ReplyDeleteBWEN on the move
ReplyDeleteBWEN - Good eye Kyle, looks promising.
ReplyDeleteA little longer term perspective:
ReplyDeleteI was looking at XOM because I turned on CNBC and they are saying it’s oversold. Did you know that back in 1975 you could have put $20,000 into XOM and not only would it be worth $420,000 right now, but it would also be paying you dividends of $13,000 a year? In 1975, we just got through a 50% plunge in the markets and XOM had a market cap of about $13 Billion and it was then paying a dividend of about 6%. It has paid dividends for the past 40+ years.
I think it would be smart to find stocks that have been paying dividends for a while, have a market cap between $500 Million and $15 Billion and are in an industry that will most likely be important for years to come.
"Bulls find little hope in markets' behavior"
ReplyDeleteWonder who wrote this one and what they're suggesting? A little bounce into the imminent crossing of the 50/200dma without any chance of lowering my cost basis doesn't compel me no matter if the words insinuate a bullish tone. There's no blood in the streets even considering volume jumped up yesterday, nothing has changed (yet) as far as I know.
TOF - Yes, that makes perfect sense depending on your time horizon, just as buying 30yr treasury paper might be to others.
ReplyDeleteI'm one of those guys with a hands-on mentality, something about parking money in XOM doesn't stimulate my funny bone in quite the same way as the potential for reward I'm attempting to discover elsewhere..
XOM might just be a beneficiary from the BP train wreck though, so the thought is certainly appealing in that respect.
Chanos was talking about oil co's that haven't been replacing their reserves and continue to pay dividends. He says it's really slow liquidation.
ReplyDeleteJust the other side of the coin....
He's short some of the big oilers as a result.
Look at that XOM chart. The big blue arrow points down for the last couple years.
ff - Interesting point, while there has been addition to nat gas reserves.
ReplyDeleteHOKU is kicking some butt today...
BP/etc. - Funds must be covering their shorts today for end of quarter.
ReplyDeletevb...
ReplyDeleteAll happiness to you my dear:)
Just got back from the course, played 18 holes with 2 nice ladies.
I haven't really played in well over a month, but by the end of my round some of my approaches started getting very good, and I made a few putts as well.
shark - You didn't create any solar puppies while you were out there did you????
ReplyDeleteSPX moving lower; TZA 7.90
14.00ish a really interesting number for BAC all the way back to last July.
ReplyDeleteNice little break out on the intra for PXP.
ReplyDeleteHey!! Where's my divy for FTFL???
ReplyDeleteA case could be made for GOOG to go to 395.
ReplyDeleteI have no idea why PXP is out running it's peers...but it pisses me off.
ReplyDeleteJAG - getting hit hard; CDE - holding
ReplyDeleteMark - FTFL div should be in your account, no? Did you buy the stock in time to get it?
ReplyDeleteI kinda like the idea of getting dividends. i'm beginning my mad search of dividend players that could do well longer term...here are a few at first glance that look ok:
CCF
HWKN
GHM
BCPC
Is GS going to hold 131???
ReplyDeleteStinky on GMO @ 3.02.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Hasn't shown up yet. I did get in on time. Still holding. If we get a "next" leg up the divy will come into play for me as well.
ReplyDeleteRe-AAPL...I've always had 250 as the # to watch.
ReplyDeleteHEK is in real trouble here. 4.11 is entirely possible.
ReplyDeleteKyle I have 8.16 as R1 for TZA today. Good job!!
ReplyDeleteSPX - IC&H playing through - 1042 @ 10:50 - 2:30 - final breach @ 3:15
ReplyDeleteChicken,
ReplyDeleteYou're at a point with PAL where you have to consider bailing out not at a loss.
1040 is history the path is clear.
Strange how the market decided to fall apart intraday -- now everyone is running for the exits. This way, actually, it can drop lower than in an overnight gap down, since all long holders will keep selling, and selling, and selling...
ReplyDeleteStinky on SSO @ 1.53.
ReplyDeletemark - RE: AAPL > really if it goes below 240 then i think the market is SOL. if the market leader breaks through support then what do bulls have to hang their hat on?
ReplyDeleteThe market closes in 8 minutes and the dude on CNBC say's it's going to take some work for the market to close today at 1040.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Totally agree.
ReplyDeleteAs I reviewed my positions yesterday, I realized that I should definitely not open any new long positions until July options expiration, since the puts I wrote on PXP at $19, on UCO at $9 and WATG at $7.50 can be easily assigned to me. So if the market keeps going down, then I'll automatically "buy" the stocks that I would anyway want to buy.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if S&P drops below $980 by Friday, then I might sell some of my SKF & TWM.
My first attempt to short the market last year was @ 1020. Crazy.
ReplyDeleteThis is my kind of action.
ReplyDeleteSell, baby, sell!
Trading SGG is harder than I thought. Yesterday, when it closed at $42.50, I was glad that I had a stop at $44.25 that got triggered the day before. Today, it is already at $44.50, and I don't feel like jumping into it again. If it goes below $40, then I'll think about it.
ReplyDeleteWould you believe it? I kept a buy limit order on ECU.TO at the bid price of $0.62 since 10am today, and even despite the market crash no one sold it to me at the bid! There is a major accumulation happening right now at ECU, and the stock will probably take off soon like a rocket. I guess I'll have to be content with the 28000 shares I have accumulated already...
ReplyDeletesharkie - I'd prefer adding to PAL than sell at this point, it's just that the price isn't as low as I think it might be capable of going.
ReplyDeleteSame goes for GMO...
Sell in May - The market this year appears to have similar characteristics as last year this time, it turned back up on July 10th.
ReplyDeleteThere are some pretty significant differences though, one of which was coming out of a much larger crash.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the 1938-40 markets and seeing how they compare with todays markets and they are still quite similar. When the market finally rolled over in March 1939, the 50 DMA pointed down and went through the 200 DMA. It ultimately dropped from about 158 to 121, a drop of about 23%. If the same drop happened today that would equate to a drop to 930ish. Also, the market dropped about 17% below the 200 DMA which would also equate to about 930ish on the S&P. I still think 950 is a good time to buy and we're not that far away from it. I think the next round of toe dippers in the markets will happen at 1000 and ultimately when they lose money and bail it will be a great time to buy. I think the parallel to that period holds up until 1940, which is when the shit hit the fan in Europe and World War II was going into full swing. Barring WWIII, I think if we sell off to 950ish it could potentially be a good long term entry point.
ReplyDeleteinteresting to see that insiders were buying up ACMR in May after the stock dropped. that is a turnaround story that might never turnaround but the price to sales is really low, which tends to be a good harbinger of future price appreciation. they have a lot of room to cut costs in my opinion. they are reformatting a lot of their stores to a successful store model they have in a few of their stores. i wouldn't be surprised if this is a good stock long term, assuming of course that they can survive.
ReplyDeleteMCGC is another interesting company, a business development company (BDC). they recently reinstituted a divided, now at about 9%. company is trading at about 60% of book value. i might dip my toes in this one soon.
2nd have you been trading from the short side brother?
ReplyDeleteJesus Christ David, I'm not gonna make dog jokes, but have you seen ESLR?
ReplyDeleteThe phones, computers and the big wad of silicon they use to make panels is worth more than 68 cents, eh?
I see YRCW is coming right into my wheel house :)
ReplyDelete1 and 5 year of TED.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Comments David?
PAL - the bottom trendline is right @ $3, but I'd prefer to add somewhere around $2.50 or lower.
ReplyDeleteGMO - not adding before the $2.74 gap is closed unless something happens to keep that from being likely. We're into that gap now, BTW.
Also looking at CADC, assuming China won't stop growing.
CVS - kinda looks like a nice gift here...
ReplyDelete