Wednesday, June 2, 2010
6/3/10 Traders Anonymous/ Superman
I can’t stand to fly
I’m not that naive
I’m just out to find
The better part of me
I’m more than a bird…I’m more than a plane
I'm more than some pretty face beside a train
It’s not easy to be me.
I wish that I could cry
Fall upon my knees
Find a way to lie
About a home I’ll never see
It may sound absurd…but don’t be naive
Even heroes have the right to bleed
I may be disturbed…but won’t you concede
Even heroes have the right to dream
And it’s not easy to be me.
Why the ---- do I trade just to trade? I lost money today for really no reason at all. Of course, taking losses quickly paid off once again- my regret at opening ERY @ 12.92 and exiting @ 12.82 (just before it took off for 13.06) was nothing compared to what I would have experienced had I held into the 11.81 close. Opening RIG @ 48.39 and exiting @ 46.92- well, that still stings.
'Sell in May and go away' may actually make sense this year.
The difference between Gamblers Anonymous and Traders Anonymous? The more the markets resemble a casino with a house advantage, the cloudier the distinction.
Yeah, my name is 2nd_ave, and I'm a tradaholic. I may be disturbed, but won't you concede even traders have the right to dream. And it's not easy to be me.
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If someone had told me in 1990 that someday I'd have to time the stock market to make any money, I'd have said something like 'Yeah, you do that.'
ReplyDeleteNow, if someone tells me they're sticking with buy-and-hold for long term, I think to myself 'Yeah, you do that.'
More and more, I'm starting think along the lines of 'Who needs the market?' Thirty years from now investors may look back and wonder why they got so carried away buying pieces of paper that basically just go up and down in price.
Okay, so there was a shallow water oil lease granted today, but I didn't catch which company.
ReplyDeleteSo now I'm thinking yesterday's plunge in PXP was either an orchestrated event to shake out weak hands, or perhaps nervous nellies not willing to put themselves in harms way in case the lease was denied?
There's a lone baby duck out here hatched by a chicken (you're welcome for that egg, ms. chicken) and he just hangs onto his momma like you wouldn't believe. She's done well by this baby, staying with him much, much longer than I thought she would.
What if after another 10-20 years of market prices going nowhere, J6P decides to leave the world of stock certificates and bonds altogether? '---- this, man.'
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't want to be among the last 50% of investors coming to that conclusion. No, man. I'd want to be in the first 10%.
Mog's response to my analysis on PXP last night...
ReplyDelete"This is a reasonable analysis in my view, using street prices for commodities is fair game. The big IF is GOM developments and whether $3.20 share is fair value for their pending discoveries given the delays in deepwater. Their NAV and discounted future cash flows from production are reasonably high confidence given the price assumptions so....it all gets down to WHEN Obama et al let them go back to Davy Jones, deepwater discoveries and whether Anadarko can keep Lucius in the development queue given all of their other issues. They all will happen, but the NPV and share price will be heavily impacted until there is more certainty on timing...anyone's guess.
This is a solid long term play, short term trading is your game. Their California assets, Vicksburg, and some of onshore Texas is underwater at today's prices or close to no margin. It is another company that does very well with higher prices, but struggles with low. They have a safe debt structure, towers of debt far out and good liquidity, will not disappear in low prices but not make much money. Clearly they are undervalued at today's price, those assest will be valuable once the panic passes."
All right, no more from me on this one.
I'm seriously considering putting everything into inflation-protected government bonds until November, or a major sell-off, whichever comes first.
ReplyDeleteCP- You seeing any news on FTWR? Today's action in light of the overall market is worrisome. I might have to cut this one lose for a loss tomorrow.
ReplyDelete2nd- TIPS?
ReplyDeleteI know nothing about bonds.
ReplyDeleteTIPS...There was a recent and rare interview with a big time and very well respected $ mngr very recently, first name Seth, ( I will try to look it up) who says don't trust TIPS. Says they are manipulated by Gov through CPI.
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Looks like a nice discount price there, let me see if there's any real reason to dump here aside from technicals...
ReplyDeleteTIPS - Honestly have no idea on that one, could pick 'em up now then migrate out if/when a compelling opportunity knocks but aren't those set to perform with an inflationary scenario? If we're falling off a cliff is that the place to be as opposed to run of the mill T's? CD's might be worth a look?
Just a silly, off the wall comment looking at the AUS $ up 1%, DX down, oil up....maybe a second run at commodities?
ReplyDeleteHey Illini!! How have you been?
ES tags 1100. Your it!!
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Well, of course I found absolutely nothing new but that doesn't mean there isn't. Sure looks like a compelling buy to me though, buzzards are bound to pounce any moment.
ReplyDeleteOK, thanks CP. Let me know when you spot some buzzards!
ReplyDeleteThe guy's name is Seth Klarman. There is a Zero Hedge article on his interview but I did not see any ref to the TIPS in that. I may have missed it or seen it elsewhere. Seth is a value investor with an A+ rating. Cannot get in without mega bucks.
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I am OK for a guy pushing 70. Might need a hip replacement sometime soon but am enduring for now.
Illini- Sports? I'm already (46) worried about both of my knees. 8 operations. Nothing left to fix now.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of ugly ducklings, a friend of mine had both knees replaced and now the old buzzard runs around like a spring chicken.
ReplyDeleteMark,- sports were not much of a factor. Residual osteo-arthritis of childhood Perthes disease is main factor. Perthes is on Wikipedia.
ReplyDeleteHave had no ops but have read that replacements last only so long and second replacements have a higher rate of problems including nerve damage.
Sports became a factor in my mid-20's when I first attempted to play handball with some friends in St. Louis. I was in pain the next day and went to an orthopedic. Its been that long ago but is now biting me in the butt big time.
Illini- I'm sure your aware of my background in EMS. Your right. A hip replacement is really a one time shot. I do have a few connections in this area (OPS) that I'm sure would be happy to talk to. Let me know via e-mail. Dr. Benuo is one of the best cutters in the country and a friend of mine.
ReplyDeleteIllini, here you go...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bonneau-ortho.com/
There are a few things I believe in..Gap fills and Max pain. Max pain tomorrow is a gap above the 200, say 1107. Does the majority win in that event? I think not.
ReplyDeleteMark - There is so much skepticism out there that its making me even more bullish and happy I'm long....at least for the short term. I think we will see at least 1,140 to 1,150 on this bounce.
ReplyDeleteteamonfuego, I wouldn't mind seeing 1150 on this bounce. I was too greedy during the recent correction and started buying too early stuff that seemed like a bargain, to the point that I am now net long (even though I was really short at the beginning of May). I will gladly unload my TBT and UCO if we reach 1150.
ReplyDeleteActually, I am already green on TBT I purchased at $39.11, and I have just set a sell limit order at $43.11 for 1/2 of my TBT.
All systems "GO" for my PAL long...hopefully.
ReplyDeleteMy name is shark and I refuse to believe it's wrong to drink and smoke the wackadoo weed:)
As long as you do it with friends, even if they are imaginary friends:)...Or like, if 2nd is on California drinking, and I'm out east and propose a toast...it's totallt kosher to do it that way. Or, let's say you're playing 18 and around the 12th hole you see one of those green plastic port-o-johns.......Totally fair game to go in there and blaze.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The indices bounced but so far, I think it's just that--a bounce.
Continue to look to establish new shorts but wait for entries in light of Wednesday's strength.
Trail and scale on existing positions as offered.
It's hard to buy something here, so I probably should but I'm not. Still have the GMO...
ReplyDeleteI have to admit I kinda spit the bit on PXP at the open. I was caught off guard with the huge move/volume without any news. I guess it had to due with APC declaring a force majeure and reaffirming 2010 guidance.
ReplyDeleteWe'll all have no fingers or we'll be proficient knife catchers(if that's even really possible) before this is all over.
ReplyDeleteI'll take the gains here in UNG @ 7.70. I hope not to be out long. Basis was 7.08.
ReplyDeleteCIE would have been a sweet swing trade.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteYour getting out And I'm getting in?
Robear
UNG...good for more.
ReplyDeleteI have an idea to clean the Gulf.....Someone needs to dangle 'ol purple-lips off the back of a shrimp boat, (hold him by the ankles), and he can suck up all the oil by himself!
PAL...3.80 might become support?
ReplyDeleteRB- Thought you were already in??? I'm just hopping for a little pull back to re-load.
ReplyDeleteRetake 50DMA today? That's gonna make the difference from my perspective.
ReplyDeleteCons:
GS weak
U$D up
Purple lips hasn't begun suckin' up oil
Made back part of yesterday's losses trading TZA with a 6.67 entry/6.80 exit.
ReplyDeleteI see I exited at a damned good price.
It's great to be able to say ---- you to the market once in awhile.
Mark,
ReplyDeleteCheck a 6 month daily of PAL and notice that the january consolidation around 3.40 is presently the resistance. Gotta get through that first.
Mark I sold at 7.50 on this cycle. I bought today because I was worried about a 7.80 break and no pull back.. I am going to build a core position. Average down if we go there or add on a $8.00 break. Really like how nat is acting. That solid 6.80 ish support gives confidence. Really Nat is the only thing I do have conviction in in this current market.
ReplyDeleteRB
Will optimism prevail? Perhaps not today but ultimately, I believe so.
ReplyDeleteRally into close breaking the 50DMA in anticipation of better than expected employment?
Market looks weak, Just from watching energy plays it feels like the dollar is strong. Is that right? Looks like a flat market with the dreaded sell off at the close. Or should we call it profit taking.
ReplyDeleteRB
I'm still long the PAL I bought yesterday and I'm not entirely sure why...:)
ReplyDeleteTrishy Reegan....LOVE the blue dress baby:)
wing wink:):)
All right CP I will split the difference. Lets say a flat close.
ReplyDeleteRB
shark - Maybe Larry K. should STAY on vacation...
ReplyDeleteSomeone on CC pointed out that Obama hinted during a commencement address at 'strong jobs growth,' which may reflect inside info about Friday's numbers.
ReplyDelete2nd - They talked about that yday on 'Fast Money' that both Obama & Biden in speeches gave it away early.
ReplyDeleteSO A good Job number will already be priced in right.
ReplyDeleteRB
"gave it away early"
ReplyDeleteOkay, that's good info! Didn't catch that one, so maybe that helped move things up yesterday.
Maybe a flat close is the best we can expect after all... no 50DMA breech until eurozone enthusiasm reappears....
I meant 200DMA that is, Ha, my wishful thinking slips out through all the cracks!
ReplyDeleteWell damn it, eurozone closed with gains, that's got to have some significance!
ReplyDeletehey boys - not sure what's been more frustrating: trying to hang on at mega-corp or this market....regardless, just dropped my monthly $$$ into my mutual funds. will probably trigger some kind of sell-off.
ReplyDeleteWhat goosed energy plays? Traders seem to be having a hard time pricing SD...not that I'm complaining.
ReplyDeleteHey, Bro.
ReplyDeleteOh crap, jb's back! Hey dude, nose to the grindstone, get us outta this hole!
ReplyDeleteMan, good thing I stepped aside on UNG. God, what a dick head. Good job jumping in RB!!
ReplyDeleteToo many people are negative on this market for it to go straight down. Expect the bounce.
ReplyDeleteHey trades!!! Don't forget HEK in all this hoopla over Natty....Please???
ReplyDeleteI am planning a vacation with my family and friends to Laguna Beach in September (we can drive there in 7 hrs, stopping at all the beautiful places along the coastline, as opposed to flying somewhere, like Hawaii, and paying for 4 airplane tickets). Laguna Beach was recently named a sister city to the French Rivera town of Menton, which I happened to visit some time ago and found it to be very beautiful. After today's move in Nat Gas, I am considering upgrading my accommodations in Laguna Beach. :)
ReplyDeleteEarly in the day, HNUZF hit my sell limit order at $5.80 for 500 shares I purchased at $5.30, then UNG hit my sell limit order at $7.80 for 450 shares I purchased at $7.40, and just now I sold July $8 covered calls for $0.49 against 800 shares of UNG that I picked up around $8 a couple of months ago.
I still have 500 shares of UNG that I acquired at $8.20 after selling a $9 put for $0.8 when UNG just dipped under $9. I'll wait until UNG rises above $8.50 and will then sell $9 covered calls against these shares. Last but not least, I have 2500 shares of HNU.TO acquired at the average cost of $6, while I'll start gradually selling at $7, $7.50, $8, etc. This lottery ticket did turn out to be a winning ticket. :)
We seem to be meeting expectations going into the home stretch.
ReplyDeleteGood call chicky.
ReplyDeleteCongratulations David. No one could ever say you have a weak hand. Bring the board to laguna there is some nice curls.
RB
that's right CP, no more funny business - we all need to get back to work!
ReplyDeleteI'm watching mid-size tech, like INFA, MSTR, BMC, etc.....we are just at the front end of the tech consolidation phase. TDC is also a target for HPQ unless they end up buying us.
working on putting together my own biz - software/g4 bandwidth reseller here in central ca
Enjoy the trip David! (Your trip in UNG has been really nice as well)
ReplyDeleteThank you, shark! I did lose my faith in UNG a couple of times, after if failed to stage a real rally right away after touching the 61.8% retracement of the October to January rally. In retrospect, the bottom in UNG a couple of months ago was EXACTLY at that 61.8% retracement level -- the magic of Fibonacci lives on. :) However, even with no *faith* in UNG I still had *hope* for it, and it looks like that hope has paid off.
ReplyDeleteI have just upgraded my Laguna Beach condo to the one right on the beach with a great ocean view from the large private patio, compliments of HNUZF, where I completed my 4th round trip today. :) It is still only $1000/week, so I think I am still getting a great deal (the first place was $750 per week 1/2 mi away from the ocean).
That is a smoking deal David. May I ask who is the agent.
ReplyDeleteBob
There is no agent, Bob -- I am renting directly from the owner. I found this place on VRBO:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.vrbo.com/vacation-rentals/usa/california/orange-county/laguna-beach
You can usually find nice 1BR (or 2BR) condos/apartments in all major resort areas on VRBO for a smaller price than one small hotel room. Now that I have 2 kids, a single hotel room is not an option for me, and so I only use VRBO now.
This is the place I am getting: http://www.vrbo.com/293229
ReplyDeleteDavid- Have you decided what days you want us there yet?
ReplyDeleteYes i am familiar with VRBO. Definately the way to go on extended stay vacations. Mark I will meet you at Dave's with my family of 10. Then after we will go to Team's place for another week. Hopefully they both have big screen tvs for those 2:00 to 4:00 am Cup matches.:) Love so-cal in June.
ReplyDeleteRB
Bob, there is indeed a big flat screen TV in the living room, as you can see from the pictures. And the private deck is big enough to fit both your family of 10 and Mark's family, so you guys can come over at any time. :) The description says that besides the private ocean view deck, "a common deck includes a barbecue for outdoor entertaining," so we can all have a nice BBQ there. The place costs $1500/week in July and August, so I figured I'll go in mid-September, when the price drops to $1000/week and there will be no lines at the restaurants.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete