Friday, June 4, 2010
6/4/10 Who'll Stop The Rain
That's right- the Mandarin pronunciation of the character that designates the number four (which uses the fourth tone) sounds similar to the pronunciation of the character that indicates 'death/dying/dead' (which uses the third tone). Any Chinese person born April 4, 1944 has probably heard it all.
tof- That was a slick move, closing the SPY short and switching into BGZ.
As for David, who is probably back from BevMo with several more boxed containers of Nadurra- enjoy the weekend!
Who'll stop the rain? No one, I hope. Black Monday sounds good to me. If nothing else, maybe I can land a 4% 30-year fixed- planning to drop off a signed application with my broker over the weekend...
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2nd_ave, you almost got it right! :) This time I opted for 3 1L bottles of Kirkland Anejo tequila from Costco for $23.99 each. I have tried this tequila before and found it to be VERY good, almost on par with Don Julio Anejo that sells for $50+ for 0.75L. I am taking one bottle to a small birthday celebration by one of my friends tonight. I know all guests there and they will all be drinking wine, so I'll have to deal with this 1L Anejo Tequila alone tonight. :)
ReplyDeleteAs another bonus for my family, I booked a Sunday night stay in Calistoga, $90 for a suite with 2 separate rooms separated by a solid door. The hotel itself has a large mineral water adult swimming pool, a shallow mineral water wading pool for children and a large mineral water jacuzzi (we'll spend most of Sunday and most of Monday relaxing at those pools). A few other families decided to join us on Sunday for such a deal, and I'll be taking the second 1L bottle of tequila there. :) I'll leave the third bottle at home, just in case. :)) So if you see some drunk typing from me for the whole next week, you'll know why.
ReplyDeleteMan, it's Friday, and everyone is STILL yelling at each other on TV...:)). Crazy. Well, after leaving today up 2.5K I ended down 1.7K. SGG the only winner. Overall, I'm still very pleased. I'm not sure I've ever had a more profitable week. I'm more pleased by my little ratio PORT/SPX.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Convinced me!! Margs on the rocks here shortly :)
David- That scenario fits your trading style. Racking up thousands on Black Monday while polishing off a liter of tequila between laps in a pool where any inadvertent ingestion of the mineral water only adds to the flavor of fermented agave.
ReplyDeleteBTW....What the hell kinda slotted leather joby is Trish Regan wearing?
ReplyDeleteDid you guys see that Vand der Sloot dude was arrested in Chile for another murder?
ReplyDeleteThat does it- I'm pouring a tumbler from a bottle of Nadurra (which I haven't touched in about two weeks) in honor of David's amazing week.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I mentioned that story to my wife. It's almost like the guy felt so guilty he had to do it again to make sure he got caught.
ReplyDeleteHe could turn out to be the next Ted Bundy...If it's true, bet there's more.
ReplyDeleteI heard local tv atty ads are running constantly for water home owners in gulf coast.
ReplyDeletesick sick sick sick- homeowners will never be reimbursed
today is a very sad day for the gulf coast
A Landry Monday:
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Wow! Obviously, the market got whacked on Friday. The oxymoron "pretty ugly" best describes it. Other than a brief pop after the
open, it was a solid trend day down.
This action has the indices closing poorly.
Don't get too caught up in the panic though. If the indices gap lower, look to take partial profits as offered.
Watch for Monday's Market in a Minute for more on this.
Craig's take: Everyone is looking to gap down Monday, which means we gap up.
Bill (or whoever writes the post close report) opines the powers that be will be working overtime this weekend to prop up the Euro, either Trichet, China or who knows, but it is likely we see at least a short pop from oversold before testing 1045. I'll be selling what I bought at the lows of today on that pop, or if my plan fails I switch to plan B and see if we bounce at 1045. If plan B sucks I switch to plan C and bale, then switch to Tequila.
He's been accused of 'soliciting' women in Thailand for 'employment' in the Netherlands. This is just one bad dude, man...
ReplyDeleteFF- Just about to start "Plan T" here :))
ReplyDeleteStill early for me. My wife is shopping with my daughter (never a good thing) so I'll wait until she gets home to pour a Sauza/Grand Marnier/margarita on the rocks. It's a bummer to drink alone....
ReplyDeleteCan't say I agree with that- I prefer drinking alone, as I like the freedom to reflect/write whatever comes to mind in that state, be it a blog or some other type of creative writing.
ReplyDeleteWhat does AA say about drinking alone? Well, what do I care what AA thinks? They also think drinking at breakfast, lunch, dinner, and bedtime is a problem. So what if I drink all day? What's that saying- beer doesn't know what time it is...
ReplyDeleteDrinking while driving? Hey, I can drive a lot faster on alcohol. It's second only to cocaine (among natural substances) in terms of enhancing one's productivity.
ReplyDelete2nd
ReplyDeleteI put your song on my facebook. very hard day but finally I heard his song and I got some relief
trying to cope
vb
vb- That is sick. Lawyers are a distinct breed, unlike the rest of us.
ReplyDeletevan der Sloot can probably find one to argue that under the influence of Hostess Twinkies, he becomes agitated and hallucinatory. And thereby not responsible for his actions. No, they need to go after Hostess, who markets a psychoactive substance ingested by innocent consumers unaware of the dangers.
And BP needs to find the real culprit behind the leak. No doubt a sea mammal allowed to roam in what is clearly BP territory. I would find a law firm intelligent enough to outline to a jury the true 'chain of villiany' behind the crisis- starting with Greenpeace.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Are you sure those are 1L bottles? I remember when I used to bar tend, 1L bottles were only for bars/etc. I think they were taxed at a different rate or something.
ReplyDelete2nd- Maybe they should start buy searching the ocean floor for a glove that doesn't fit anyone...
ReplyDeleteVB- Let's keep our fingers crossed the capping valve works. I just read a pretty technical article about it, and once the finish closing the relief fins, 25,000 lbs of pressure will be applied to seal the BOP. Might get 80-90% of the oil that way. When I talked with MOG the other day, he said he's hearing behind the scene that the first interception well is already moving horizontally. That's ahead of what is being announced to the media.
ReplyDeleteThat would be a good start. And if they're unable to find one, it's probably because repair crews contaminated the crime scene. Who's running the show here- Brownie? Rule number one is taping off the scene to allow forensic investigators time to collect evidence.
ReplyDeleteMan, I'll see if I can find the link, but just heard a real interesting take on the jobs # on KTVU.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the marine creature equivalent of a fingerprint? Probably the 'imprint' left on a torn pipe? The equivalent of DNA on a discarded cigarette? Probably the floating shit pile that leaves traces in the area discernible only to a highly-trained forensic marine investigator. If BP's insurance company had had the foresight, they could have sent one out immediately to tag the area. Then they could hire Johnny Cochran for the kind of sound-bites that resonate with today's juries- 'If there's whale shit, you must acquit!'
ReplyDeleteToo fing funny man, I'm crying :)))
ReplyDeleteWhat's the gist of the take you heard on KTVU?
ReplyDeleteThat there will be huge upward revisions to the jobs # in the private sector. I just caught the tail end of it, the case he was making was really interesting.
ReplyDeleteNo winners for me today. Was afraid to buy TZA at up 6%, which was its low. No losers, either, which I guess is better than the long only, buy and hold folks.
ReplyDeleteCheapy- When I left, I figured it be a pretty big down day, but I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have tried to jump on that train. Not my style. It's only one day.
ReplyDeleteI could afford to lose a few lbs. Are you doing anything interesting?
Just limiting to 10,000 kcal a week, riding exercise bike 3000 kcal a week, and drinking lots of water. Losing about 2 1/2 or 3 lbs per week so far. Another 10 weeks and I'll be looking good, I think.
ReplyDeleteWell my port was hit pretty ugly today but unfortunately not ugly enough to make it worth while adding...
ReplyDeleteOh, man...This Van der Sloot thing is getting interesting. Looks like the FBI has some 'slpaning to do :(
ReplyDeleteShoot Cheapy...That sounds like too much work to me. I kinda thought with with all those screens you'd have come up with a way where I could just short myself for a couple of weeks ;)..Good job! Keep it up.
ReplyDeleteBulkowski: June 1.
ReplyDelete"It looks as of the indexes are beginning their move lower. Support is nearby and the economy is improving, so the drop may not be a big one. HOWEVER, if the European Union still has problems that echo in the news, expect the markets to tumble. I think that will trump an improving economy, so look for more down moves ahead."
Bullwinkle: "Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat. I'll just button up my sleeve...PRESTO!"
ReplyDeleteROAR!!!!
ReplyDeleteBullwinkle: "I don't know my own strength".
Alright sports fans, that was a print exceeding 3% under 200DMA so now's the time to go short according to the rule....
ReplyDeleteTOF - I got that 200DMA rule correct, didn't I? Let me know if I overlooked something...
ReplyDeleteWhat, no Atlanta trip report?
WSJ report...
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704183204575287930895807598.html?mod=fox_australian
2nd,
ReplyDeleteI been catching up on posts. That one about a possible Johnny Cochran sound bite really cracked me up. Earlier enjoyed Credence as well as Carol King.
Its late afternoon here in the midwest and I am enjoying some red wine. That is mostly what I drink as I have narrowed it down in my old age, so far.
Chicken et all,
ReplyDeleteThe Stops & Targets algo ($ subcription} went ballistic to bearish Friday on all three time frames on all three major indices (except that Naz long term still shows bull but would flip if it goes down another 30 or so points.) However, the downside gain to risk ratio's are very poor. That might be because there is a confirmed bottom spotter in place at the recent 1040'ish low. The downside targets are above that.
I believe the S&T algo relies to a large extent on EMA charting of 20, 63, 200 daily MA. 63 is the geometric mean between the other two. If you do a backtest of these EMA you can see they work well for SPX with some flipping around. Someone on another blog also said that if you follow the above EMA's you have the S&T formula. Thats not entirely true because their spotter signals are uncanny for a heads up on possible trend change.
2nd_ave, I am not net short anymore, and so I won't rack up thousands of dollars on a Black Monday. I am almost fully hedged now, and performance of my portfolio depends on the relative performance of USO:XLF. If USO outperforms XLF, then I'll be up slightly, and if USO underperforms XLF then I'll be down slightly. It is like I am watching the market from the sidelines now, making only very small contrarian adjustments to my portoflio (such as selling 2 July $9 puts on UCO on Friday). The rally in UNG was just an unexpected bonus for my portfolio. :)
ReplyDeleteOne of my friends at Calistoga will have an i-Phone with him, so I might check out the market action close to the end of the day and do another small adjustment to my portoflio. I am not sure, however, what it is that I can possibly do -- if the market goes down on Monday, then the February low will be decisively broken, and adding longs won't make sense until S&P breaks below 1000. An up day on Monday obviously won't be a reason enough to remove any of my short hedges. So most likely I'll watch Monday "from the pool" regardless of the market action. :)
ReplyDeleteFutures looking kinda ugly here...
ReplyDeleteU$D climbing, gold weak.
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