Talking to myself and feeling old Sometimes I'd like to quit Nothing ever seems to fit Hangin around, nothing to do but frown Rainy days and Mondays always get me down...
This was the first weekend I spent almost no time on the computer/markets. Looks like everyone is calling for the end of the world/history will be made/Market will not even open tomorrow/USA will win the world cup....It's madness!!!!!
I agree 2nd, same reason I was worried about all the talk about a real bounce last week.
Hope everyone had a great weekend. Went to a combo graduation party today and was inspired by the future generation!!! Really great kids.
Anyone read the EW predictions regarding an ultimate low in 2016. I don't think that would be that much of a stretch actually. If we compare this period to that of 1929 - 1933, the fall and bounce in 1929 to 1930 took roughly 40% of the time the fall and bounce of 2008 to 2010 took. So if the bounce ended in 1930 and the slide continued to 1932 then it would almost line up with a bounce that ended in May 2010 turning into a 5 year or so slide. However, drawing parallels strictly on price/time I think is a bit of a fools game. I think more than anything though its important to look at how the market behave in 1930 to 1932 to give a sense of the way it might oscillate going forward.
tof- I agree that past patterns in market behavior can inform our trades today. Those patterns are the result of crowd psychology, and we can trust human nature to make the same moves over and over.
"Crystallex news Submitted by Bill Cara (1540 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:22 #64075 Maybe there is hope yet for embattled KRY shareholders. The company announced today a venture with a Chinese company to try to advance their gold mining interests in Venezuela.
I have no desire to follow this story, and will not be writing anything further on it."
There will be no Black Monday today, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, Oh, I mean, I have no desire to follow this story and you are not reading about this story right now.
Crystallex news Submitted by Bill Cara (1540 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:22 #64075 Maybe there is hope yet for embattled KRY shareholders. The company announced today a venture with a Chinese company to try to advance their gold mining interests in Venezuela.
I have no desire to follow this story, and will not be writing anything further on it.
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user Re: Crystallex news Submitted by greg (119 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:28 #64076 (in reply to #64075) I am one of those that held and averaged down to .71 on 32,000 shares. I started at $4 usd and bought 24,000 at .10 when all was lost. Now I'm back baby! What a ride. TBS, I would have rather sold when Bill said sell three years ago. The stress wasn't worth the 2000.00 I would have lost on the sale at the time.
Re: Crystallex news newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4445 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:48 #64080 (in reply to #64076) greg- Wow, that's awesome! Wouldn't it be ironic if KRY rockets to double digits in another few years, and you're able to say you picked up the majority of your shares at the point of ultimate capitulation? I would say something about remembering to take profits, but that would sound as hollow as reminding someone just back from Afghanistan that life can be tough ;)
Use this as an opportunity to trail stops lower and scale out (as offered) of existing positions. In light of the magnitude of the slide, you might want to be a little less aggressive on establishing new positions.
Colin Twiggs opinion newSubmitted by Bill Cara (1541 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 09:19 #64085 Twiggs today opines that if the market cannot hold the Dow 30 above 9900 or the S&P 500 above 1050, then the US equity market will fall into a primary Bear along with the Nikkei 225, the Shanghai Composite and the FTSE 100. He also believes that Canada's Toronto Composite is going to test support at 11400, and if that fails, then 11000. The strongest market, he says, is the German DAX, but if the US market turns south, he believes the DAX will follow.
As I see it, today's opening, while stronger than many had anticipated, is not very solid. This afternoon could be interesting.
I heard an interesting take on C over the weekend on the radio. "Easy" trading range from 3.70-4.00. MS has the next load of shares to sell for the Gov. and wont enter until 4.00.
It's 'easy' until it isn't. Black Monday is still on the table as far as I'm concerned. In which case that trading range can suddenly widen to 3.25-4.00...
The 'easy' trade right now might be to sit back and wait for a spike either way.
For the purpose of this exercise in futility living on the outer fringes of a local economy that's practically recession proof is a gross disadvantage.
The one thing I can say is there seems to be more real estate up for sale recently but that's probably just a seasonal issue exacerbated by economic fear.
"For the purpose of this exercise in futility living on the outer fringes of a local economy that's practically recession proof is a gross disadvantage."
BTW interestingly, I had an English teacher in grade school, a white guy who had adopted 2 AA boys with his wife. I liked this guy a lot and he got my poetry into the centerfold of the school's annual magazine, yes I was high when I wrote the winning poem.
I remember this guy telling us that he thought that "Different Strokes" was indeed deeply, if subtley racist.
It was interesting to hear those accusations come up again last week.
How'd it go in the hspital, anyway?
The doctor: "Mrs. Coleman, your husband appears to have had a stroke, and is unconscious."
Colemans's wife: "PULL IT!!! PULL THE DAMN PLUG!"
The doctor: Mrs. Coleman, your husband was only just admitted with this condition yesterday...Typically we will wait at least 3 days, usually 5 to see if there's some material improvement. You know, with strokes, improvement can happen for reasons we don't entirely understand. And it is quite possible that your husband had a "different stroke"....."
Coleman's wife: PULL IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!PULL THE GODDAMN FREAKING PLUG! IF he dies now I get fifty cents! PULL IT ALREADY GODDAMNIT!!!!!!!!!!
I think gold is seen as a sound currency right now, regardless of inflation/deflation. Right now it's a well done Euro, next it will be medium rare $USD. So gold/silver are the hedge on worthless paper fears.
Did anyone listen to Landry's 3 June video of the weekend??? Reason I ask is that about mid-way through it, he put up the SPX chart from 69-now. With the sharp run-up from 80 leading to the double-top from 99 & 07, it looked rather Ominous...
2nd - Thanks man. You know, if someone just put up that ~40yr chart & didn't tell you it was the SPX or the time-frame and asked "Would you buy this chart?", I beleive the answer would be "Oh, Hell No!!!"
Waiting for precious metals to be last off the dance floor Submitted by Bill Cara (1542 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 11:16 #64091 Europe weak in final hour. Greek banks look horrid. How many trillion euros in sovereign debt of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece are European banks holding, and how secure is it? Potential waterfall here.
Gold - Nah, today's action is either temporary or prices of commodities are about to rise.
I remember that whole story about gold as a replacement currency as POG was tanking back in '08, nothing has changed.
Before the GD, there were the Dark Ages. What, about 400yrs of depressionary times.
I'm directing my concentration on the far east(a subject that doesn't deserve to be ignored), where they're more interested in obtaining the commodities necessary to fuel their final emergence from their Dark Ages.
Raise your burgundy balloons in toast to rising prices, an inevitability once we've overcome this speed bump.
They had EVTN CEO on cnbc a few minutes ago talking about their 'voraxial oil separator' solution for removing oil from water. (www.evtn.com) A BB stock though...
BAC - 14.40? I'd wait till around $3 at this point(unless something changes the game).
The housing bubble was as plain as the noses on the faces of these financial wizards who now claim innocence as if they weren't up front and center. If they can't organize an economic recovery then I'm not gonna overpay to take on their risk.
Lower low is now officially in on a longer term picture....I'm only holding BGZ from Friday morning and FTFL from a couple of weeks ago (waiting for the first $0.20 dividend payment, payable to us shareholders as of tomorrow). The rest is in cash. I'll probably wait to get long in a meaningful way when the S&P 500 breaks back above the 200 DMA
Pretty amazing point here. Now back to pre-ETP deal. I'm pretty sure I made my first entry @ 4.88 the day before. Hard to believe I closed that one out at 6.22ish. And FTWR @ 5.50ish. Unreal.
Nikkei down -4%...
ReplyDeleteThat makes too many people looking for a -10% drop.
ReplyDeleteSPX futes crowding 1050...
ReplyDeleteSell-offs in Asia are actually pretty tame at the moment.
ReplyDeleteRainy days and Monday's always get me down:
ReplyDeleteTalking to myself and feeling old
Sometimes I'd like to quit
Nothing ever seems to fit
Hangin around, nothing to do but frown
Rainy days and Mondays always get me down...
This was the first weekend I spent almost no time on the computer/markets. Looks like everyone is calling for the end of the world/history will be made/Market will not even open tomorrow/USA will win the world cup....It's madness!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI agree 2nd, same reason I was worried about all the talk about a real bounce last week.
Hope everyone had a great weekend. Went to a combo graduation party today and was inspired by the future generation!!! Really great kids.
Anyone read the EW predictions regarding an ultimate low in 2016. I don't think that would be that much of a stretch actually. If we compare this period to that of 1929 - 1933, the fall and bounce in 1929 to 1930 took roughly 40% of the time the fall and bounce of 2008 to 2010 took. So if the bounce ended in 1930 and the slide continued to 1932 then it would almost line up with a bounce that ended in May 2010 turning into a 5 year or so slide. However, drawing parallels strictly on price/time I think is a bit of a fools game. I think more than anything though its important to look at how the market behave in 1930 to 1932 to give a sense of the way it might oscillate going forward.
ReplyDeletetof- I agree that past patterns in market behavior can inform our trades today. Those patterns are the result of crowd psychology, and we can trust human nature to make the same moves over and over.
ReplyDelete"Crystallex news
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (1540 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:22 #64075
Maybe there is hope yet for embattled KRY shareholders. The company announced today a venture with a Chinese company to try to advance their gold mining interests in Venezuela.
I have no desire to follow this story, and will not be writing anything further on it."
There will be no Black Monday today, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, Oh, I mean, I have no desire to follow this story and you are not reading about this story right now.
Crystallex news
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (1540 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:22 #64075
Maybe there is hope yet for embattled KRY shareholders. The company announced today a venture with a Chinese company to try to advance their gold mining interests in Venezuela.
I have no desire to follow this story, and will not be writing anything further on it.
reply Contact the author Bookmark this Ignore thread Ignore user
Re: Crystallex news
Submitted by greg (119 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:28 #64076 (in reply to #64075)
I am one of those that held and averaged down to .71 on 32,000 shares. I started at $4 usd and bought 24,000 at .10 when all was lost. Now I'm back baby! What a ride. TBS, I would have rather sold when Bill said sell three years ago. The stress wasn't worth the 2000.00 I would have lost on the sale at the time.
Re: Crystallex news newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4445 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 08:48 #64080 (in reply to #64076)
ReplyDeletegreg- Wow, that's awesome! Wouldn't it be ironic if KRY rockets to double digits in another few years, and you're able to say you picked up the majority of your shares at the point of ultimate capitulation? I would say something about remembering to take profits, but that would sound as hollow as reminding someone just back from Afghanistan that life can be tough ;)
Damn- Craig and I zeroed in on the same story at the same time.
ReplyDeleteSwiss/German indexes leading to the upside.
ReplyDeleteThose European rallies seem half-hearted.
ReplyDeleteYeah, and the $USD is still fluctuating right at Friday's closing level.
ReplyDeleteI think we see a little bounce and then all bets are off.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The indices sold off hard out of a pullback.
Obviously, so far, they remain in a downtrend.
Use this as an opportunity to trail stops lower and scale out (as
offered) of existing positions. In light of the magnitude of the
slide, you might want to be a little less aggressive on
establishing new positions.
Futures are flat to firm pre-market.
Wow. KRY in play.
ReplyDeleteStill the value can't be all that high....But I guess I may jump in:)
Colin Twiggs opinion newSubmitted by Bill Cara (1541 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 09:19 #64085
ReplyDeleteTwiggs today opines that if the market cannot hold the Dow 30 above 9900 or the S&P 500 above 1050, then the US equity market will fall into a primary Bear along with the Nikkei 225, the Shanghai Composite and the FTSE 100. He also believes that Canada's Toronto Composite is going to test support at 11400, and if that fails, then 11000. The strongest market, he says, is the German DAX, but if the US market turns south, he believes the DAX will follow.
As I see it, today's opening, while stronger than many had anticipated, is not very solid. This afternoon could be interesting.
The "action" in KRY = Bizarre!
ReplyDeletehas kry not traded a single share?
ReplyDeleteHow the "heck" is that even possible?
ReplyDeleteGuys?
KRY..3.7M shares traded.
ReplyDeleteshark, ST's data feed is sucking today, so I wouldn't trust it.
ReplyDeleteGo up to "trading" and hit "reload trading data".
For example, I sold 500 shares of GMO this AM and it still says zero
There's something wrong with me scottrade then.
ReplyDeleteshark- According to Fido, over 4m shares have changed hands, high 0.7682, low 0.6412.
ReplyDeletebizarre....It isn't showing sales for kry just bids and asks...of course it works for every other stock.
ReplyDeleteJust as well.
2nd- Speaking of rain. Is it safe to call it over in the Bay Area? I've got to take a roof off and this weather has been killing me.
ReplyDeleteThat was one nice opening fake-out, designed to draw in shorts, then shake them down.
ReplyDeleteRough seas, sports fans! First class ticket on the Vertigo coming to an amusement park near you... Absolutely no one admitted.
ReplyDeleteEnergy caught a nice bid across the board just now.
ReplyDeleteForecast looks good to me, although we have overcast skies and some mist over the Peninsula right now.
ReplyDeleteCrap....Their talking about Sugar on CNBC right now.
ReplyDeleteI heard an interesting take on C over the weekend on the radio. "Easy" trading range from 3.70-4.00. MS has the next load of shares to sell for the Gov. and wont enter until 4.00.
ReplyDeleteBottom fishing in AEO?
ReplyDeleteIt's 'easy' until it isn't. Black Monday is still on the table as far as I'm concerned. In which case that trading range can suddenly widen to 3.25-4.00...
ReplyDeleteThe 'easy' trade right now might be to sit back and wait for a spike either way.
As Rebis Cannibis famously put it: "Dig a hole deep enough and everyone will want to jump in."
ReplyDeleteMy sense is that we test 10k at some point before spiking down.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm lucky a thick heavy fog will roll in and prices will come to me.
ReplyDeleteanybody gettin long kry?
ReplyDelete8% swing in FAZ/FAS already.
ReplyDeleteAh Clempookie,
ReplyDeleteEverything you know is wrong.
KRY- Would like to see some volume confirmation.
ReplyDeleteI haven't touched it either...too many bad memories maybe:)
ReplyDeleteOh and my box iz working now:)
pal l@@king tempting also:)
ReplyDeleteFor the purpose of this exercise in futility living on the outer fringes of a local economy that's practically recession proof is a gross disadvantage.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing I can say is there seems to be more real estate up for sale recently but that's probably just a seasonal issue exacerbated by economic fear.
"Everything you know is wrong"
ReplyDeletePrecisely!
"For the purpose of this exercise in futility living on the outer fringes of a local economy that's practically recession proof is a gross disadvantage."
ReplyDeleteWhatchyou talkin' 'bout Willis!?
Gold gaining big here, inflationary winds 'a blowin'... or just a whiff O' rotten Dinosaur flesh ???
ReplyDelete"Whatchyou talkin' 'bout Willis!? "
ReplyDeleteSimply that I recognize I cannot trust all that I observe from this particular roost.
Certainly can't describe the action as bullish.
ReplyDeleteBTW interestingly, I had an English teacher in grade school, a white guy who had adopted 2 AA boys with his wife. I liked this guy a lot and he got my poetry into the centerfold of the school's annual magazine, yes I was high when I wrote the winning poem.
ReplyDeleteI remember this guy telling us that he thought that "Different Strokes" was indeed deeply, if subtley racist.
It was interesting to hear those accusations come up again last week.
How'd it go in the hspital, anyway?
The doctor: "Mrs. Coleman, your husband appears to have had a stroke, and is unconscious."
Colemans's wife: "PULL IT!!! PULL THE DAMN PLUG!"
The doctor: Mrs. Coleman, your husband was only just admitted with this condition yesterday...Typically we will wait at least 3 days, usually 5 to see if there's some material improvement. You know, with strokes, improvement can happen for reasons we don't entirely understand. And it is quite possible that your husband had a "different stroke"....."
Coleman's wife: PULL IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!PULL THE GODDAMN FREAKING PLUG! IF he dies now I get fifty cents! PULL IT ALREADY GODDAMNIT!!!!!!!!!!
I think gold is seen as a sound currency right now, regardless of inflation/deflation.
ReplyDeleteRight now it's a well done Euro, next it will be medium rare $USD. So gold/silver are the hedge on worthless paper fears.
Did anyone listen to Landry's 3 June video of the weekend??? Reason I ask is that about mid-way through it, he put up the SPX chart from 69-now. With the sharp run-up from 80 leading to the double-top from 99 & 07, it looked rather Ominous...
ReplyDeleteFTWR - Marching right down the upper trend line going back to October high pretty as you please.
ReplyDelete"over" the weekend
ReplyDeleteKyle- I have great respect for anyone who bothers to correct his grammar ;)
ReplyDeleteSo much for the feeble attempt to rally...
ReplyDelete2nd - Thanks man. You know, if someone just put up that ~40yr chart & didn't tell you it was the SPX or the time-frame and asked "Would you buy this chart?", I beleive the answer would be "Oh, Hell No!!!"
ReplyDeleteGood luck boys!!!
ReplyDeleteSome of these prices are so damn tempting, take DCI for example....
ReplyDeleteSell-off picking up momentum.
ReplyDeleteQOTD: On the Word “Bet”
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/qotd-on-the-word-bet/
I was way ahead of the crowd on that. I've been blogging using the term 'bet' since 2005 ;)
ReplyDeleteWaiting for precious metals to be last off the dance floor
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (1542 comments) on Mon, 06/07/2010 - 11:16 #64091
Europe weak in final hour. Greek banks look horrid. How many trillion euros in sovereign debt of Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece are European banks holding, and how secure is it? Potential waterfall here.
See the spike in gold/silver prices this morning?
ReplyDeleteShaking down the shorts again.
ReplyDeleteGold - Nah, today's action is either temporary or prices of commodities are about to rise.
ReplyDeleteI remember that whole story about gold as a replacement currency as POG was tanking back in '08, nothing has changed.
Before the GD, there were the Dark Ages. What, about 400yrs of depressionary times.
I'm directing my concentration on the far east(a subject that doesn't deserve to be ignored), where they're more interested in obtaining the commodities necessary to fuel their final emergence from their Dark Ages.
Raise your burgundy balloons in toast to rising prices, an inevitability once we've overcome this speed bump.
KRY trading at the low of the day, which is exactly one penny above last week's close.
ReplyDeleteKRY: Possibly the least investible company of the past 5 years.
ReplyDeleteIt does look damn attractive here at 56 centavos.
Well, I sincerely hope 'greg' took some (if not all) off the table at the open.
ReplyDeleteSugar Ray keeps jabbing at the bull and it won't go down. He needs to deliver a Tyson blow to send it to the mat...
ReplyDeleteWith fewer market pundits calling for Black Monday right now, we finally have a shot at seeing one unfold.
ReplyDelete2nd and Y'alls,
ReplyDeleteI want to point out RBY which one should seek to buy on it's next dip. Or if it just keeps going up, either way. Looks like a likely trend-change.
I'm gonna buy KRY.....4 old times' sake!
ReplyDeleteRemember how painful those old times could be...
ReplyDeletepalladium rising.....
ReplyDeletedoes PAL come into play?
I liked your original strategy of 'Sell in May,' shark.
ReplyDeleteC'mon man, hit him again. And again. Again. Again.
ReplyDeletePut a little rage behind it.
ReplyDeleteThis bear just ain't got it inside him.
ReplyDeleteI didn't buy anything yet.
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be a total buyers strike anyway.
Trend's probably about to change.
Would it help if I place shark on the other side of the ring saying 'yo mama?'
ReplyDeleteThis bear's pathetic, man.
ReplyDeleteI used to do well with KRY....That was the stock I cut my shark's teeth on:)
ReplyDeleteWRLD - Gonna break out? Insider buying 239%.
ReplyDeleteWake me up when the bear starts to kick some ass...
ReplyDeleteThey had EVTN CEO on cnbc a few minutes ago talking about their 'voraxial oil separator' solution for removing oil from water. (www.evtn.com) A BB stock though...
ReplyDeleteHard to believe prices are still coming to me, patience truly is a virtue.
ReplyDeleteGS - Getting hammered, looks like bear is winning.
This is more like it.
ReplyDeleteMark- That 'easy' trading range on C has already been breached on the downside...
ReplyDeleteStill plenty of time for a Black Monday KO by the Bear.
ReplyDeleteStopped out of HEK @ 3.99 for a 300 buck loss. Just seems like there's no interest now.
ReplyDeleteConsumer Credit # looks good though.
Don't forget X+3B's 14.40 call on BAC. I wouldn't be surprised if he is lowering it.
Make that 4.99 :)
ReplyDeleteBears have forgotten what it means to be in control of the situation. I guess a year of torture will do that to you.
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, I have 3.68 as S2 for today.
ReplyDeleteThe next support I have for X is 33. Damn.
ReplyDeleteAA?? 9.00
ReplyDeleteBoy, I really hope that dude took something on KRY. After news like that to be negative on the day is scary.
ReplyDeleteCE off at 26.34 for a 400 buck loss. If this one breaks, it could go back to 23.
ReplyDeleteDown to SGG/PXP/SD. Maybe 20% net long.
And FTWR.
ReplyDelete2.74 for PAL???
ReplyDeleteHow much lower can AONE go???
ReplyDeletein PAL low 3's...
ReplyDeletewe'll see what happenz....
JPM at 31?? Hmmmm....
ReplyDeleteKRY...damn. Down 11%.
ReplyDelete1050 sweepstakes. Above or below?
ReplyDeleteAll right, starter position in AONE @ 8.00.
ReplyDeleteAbove.
ReplyDeleteOrder imbalance...buy side, GS. Sell side BAC...
ReplyDeleteSugar Ray gets it done! Way to go, champ. Next match opens in Tokyo in about 4 hours. Get some rest.
ReplyDeleteBAC - 14.40? I'd wait till around $3 at this point(unless something changes the game).
ReplyDeleteThe housing bubble was as plain as the noses on the faces of these financial wizards who now claim innocence as if they weren't up front and center. If they can't organize an economic recovery then I'm not gonna overpay to take on their risk.
AONE jumps on news. I'll see if anyone wants my shares at 8.60.
ReplyDeleteNice bet on AONE, Mark! I would take the profits before they jump off the same cliff KRY profits did.
ReplyDeleteLower low is now officially in on a longer term picture....I'm only holding BGZ from Friday morning and FTFL from a couple of weeks ago (waiting for the first $0.20 dividend payment, payable to us shareholders as of tomorrow). The rest is in cash. I'll probably wait to get long in a meaningful way when the S&P 500 breaks back above the 200 DMA
ReplyDeleteEVTN.OB anyone?
ReplyDeleteOne year chart of HEK...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/NmQ0YWVlZD
Pretty amazing point here. Now back to pre-ETP deal. I'm pretty sure I made my first entry @ 4.88 the day before. Hard to believe I closed that one out at 6.22ish. And FTWR @ 5.50ish. Unreal.
You did well hitting those high areas Mark, forgot how exactly you made the decision but regardless, congrats!
ReplyDeleteSo you want to be a landlord....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marinij.com/ci_15240749?source=most_viewed
CP Thanks. Honestly, it really blows me away where they are, what, 6 weeks later? Damn.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteHSY - Wow, nice chart.
ReplyDelete