Monday, July 12, 2010
7/12/10 The Bottle
See that black boy over there, runnin' scared
his ol' man's in a bottle.
He done quit his 9 to 5 to drink full time
so now he's livin' in the bottle.
See that Black boy over there, runnin' scared
his ol' man got a problem
Pawned off damn near everything, his ol'
woman's weddin' ring for a bottle.
And don't you think it's a crime
when time after time, people in the bottle.
The incredible highs, the amazing visions, the powerful truths we find in 'the bottle.' Ditto for 'the market.'
I used to drive (too chicken/lazy to walk) the streets of Detroit and Oakland, soaking in the same images that are now preserved in video clips of the eighties and nineties. International Boulevard in Oakland is still a 'trip.' The 'Nineties (an East Oakland 'hood) was the setting for 'Drive-By,' an out-of-print book about the area around Castlemont High:
http://www.domingoyu.com/education/reviews/drive-by/
Sometimes vastly different 'threads' of one's life become intertwined (or maybe entwined) in unexpected ways. And lead to unanticipated revelations. Can one find 'revelation' in a bottle/the market? In my opinion, Absolut-ly. Both offer highs/lows as well as unlimited opportunities to understand ourselves and others, for those predisposed to 'responsible' drinking/trading.
I often like to say that 'every conceivable emotion/pursuit that has has ever been experienced/been undertaken by mankind is occurring somewhere on the planet right now.' Well, right now I am at the intersection of Buzz and Tick, driving through the 'Nineties version of Wall and Broad.
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I thought for a moment about posting the above u-know-where, but hey, I'm all about responsible blogging ;) It would be the equivalent of drinking while Buzzed, I would end up Ticking people off, and probably get Broadsided into a Wall of silence in the process.
ReplyDeleteJuly almost seems like the Second Coming of the Anti-Selloff, another rally to devastate the bears on the anniversary of the first.
ReplyDeleteIf the DJIA moves up to 12000 from here, it will indeed be the Revenge of the Buy-n-Holders.
ReplyDeleteDamn, tof...Both the TW (alright, 'sometimes' only) and CS agree with you? Now I'm really second-guessing my call for a sell-off ;)
ReplyDeleteAnybody have a theory on the Baltic Dry Index? Okay I'll put mine out there (As usual, no comments please, okay?)
ReplyDeleteBDI - This, as I understand it, is comprised to a large degree of shipping or iron ore to China (and perhaps elsewhere). Remember not so long ago when China was balking at higher iron ore prices and the Australian super tax? Well, there you go, the Chinese Boycott is showing up in the BDI...
CP- Sounds reasonable to me...oops, sorry :)
ReplyDelete2nd- OK, what/who are CW/TW?
Well, it looks like my C short is going to be the first loser for me in a while. WTF, did MS traders take the day off?
ReplyDeleteCredit Suisse and the 'Wizard.'
ReplyDeleteThe funny thing is, going into the close (and into my 2nd or 3rd glass of wine) I totally doubled down on PAL....Adding to a loser you might call it. I call it a ballsy bet on the future of America.
ReplyDelete2nd....The only thing you should post over at CC is a link to this site and news that I am here:)!
That'll ruffle a few shitbirds:)
Bill completely lost me around the time of that retarded "wizard" book title....The comparisons to that "other" wizard seemed inevitable, obvious and undesirable.
ReplyDeleteAnd I think he may be carrying it too far. The following is Bill's latest official market-call...Yes it is amazing but true:)
TRADER WIZARD MARKET REPORT FOR JULY 12 2010:
"I could while away the hours, conferrin' with the flowers
Consultin' with the rain.
And my head I'd be scratchin' while my thoughts were busy hatchin'
If I only had a brain..."
shark- Here's to you! I always bet on the guy who's willing to double down. My hope is that you're able to clear a decent profit at the open, thus clearing the way for a major sell-off...
ReplyDeleteI know it's funny right Mark,
ReplyDeleteStocks do nothing but disapoint buyers left right and center, and then all of a sudden the moment YOU go short.......:)
It's like, rally of the century time!
shark- I have to say your poems are always good for a ROFLMAO.
ReplyDeleteHave you resolved your internet connection problems, Mark?
ReplyDeleteI really hate to say this, but looking really closely at the live feeds from the gulf, it appears the new cap has stopped any oil from leaking at the site of the break. If this is true, and new hydrates don't build up, it's a winner. (Fingers crossed big time!)
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteDo you feel that's how tomorrow will go, initial enthusiasm and then a selloff?
Sounds reasonable. Is that really what you think will happen? To me the earnings news should really encourage stock buyers that there's something real there, that the market should ignore main street and traditional signs of economic recovery (notably abesnt), but my take may be faulty. I mean, when the rubber hits the road, well see what does happen.
I am not so much a poet as an erotic politician:)
ReplyDelete2nd- Yeah, for this computer only. Looks like one of my switches went bad. Easy fix now for the rest of the family.
ReplyDeleteSharkie- I'm actually happy. I'm still net long, and just about everything I want to trade is well below my last sale price. Now, hopefully, the "new" off shore ban will shake out some pussies at the open and I'll load up big time on PXP.
No, I'm HOPING for a sell-off, b/c I just don't believe in this rally.
ReplyDeleteBut then, as we all know by now, that's an all-clear signal for a continuation of the rally. As soon as I give in and go all-in on the long side, the sell-off will commence. I will of course honestly report my conversion to the Bullsh-- (I mean the Bull side) when the time comes....
I think it was vb who mentioned that Smartrends is calling for DJIA 10300 before the downtrend resumes.
ReplyDeleteI should say re-zooms.
ReplyDelete2nd....I just want to mention I love the play you put on this morning....TZA. You had the right idea, and the right idea is a precious thing in this business.
ReplyDeleteMark I'll keep an eye on it. I am always impressed by you guys and really I think your ability to find cool trading vehicles, such as 2nd today is most impressive. I feel like such a one-note Johnny, always buying the same 2 or 3 stocks. I will do more etf trading after I watch them more and see what I am missing:) They seem to be where the action is.
BP - New cap is working much better and I think it'll continue to do so. I'm not so sure about the stock though, plenty of problems there...
ReplyDeleteTM seems to have broken out of it's funk...
3 brunets vs. 1 blond.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/ZjA3NTFm
Tricked you Sharkie!!
Shark- I like "trading" stocks that are well valued and if they move against me, I wont really care. I have only been using a fraction of my port, so holding onto a "loser" is fine with me. The C short does NOT fit into that pattern.
ReplyDeleteCP- I damn near let go of my CADC today...and tried to get back into PXP/XCO/GMO but they all left right after my orders were placed.
ReplyDeleteMark - Why you no like CADC? This puppy's gonna fly once the truth about Chinese growth is revealed... I'm giving it a few months at least.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Looks like it's headed for $3.75 where it should break out of the downtrend and move on to at least $4.00
ReplyDeleteCP- Like it a lot. I'm probably over thinking it, but thought I could reload a little lower.
ReplyDeleteYep, I need to practice letting go and reloading lower but we're pretty darn low right here.
ReplyDeleteAA had a nice little pop AH with a .01 beat. Problem is the volume was WAY low compared to recent earnings announcements.
ReplyDeleteThe market will turn on a Diamond, with comments following JPM's earnings. If you don't think he has that kind of juice, your wrong.
The world Cup final was a disgrace. Terrible fouls, nervous play, missed opportunities, no BJ. This will set soccer back 10 minutes.
King James will never win a championship with any team that's in HEAT.
Peace out.
maybe my late order entry of SPY will be my saving grace after all. surprised to see the futures down overnight but then again people prob want to see how GOOG/INTC/JPM/BAC/GE do before committing money on the long side.
ReplyDeleteShort squeeze underway.
ReplyDeleteMorning guys!
ReplyDeleteWhen you roll with the bear you get a mouthful of hair! At least that's what 2nd ave always told me:)...NOT!
King James: A Joke.
ReplyDeleteWho give a hoot in hell about some basketball dribbling schmuck when our world is facing the issues it's facing?
MArk...Sorry the C short isn't working out...
It looks like happy freaking days are here again, which we've learned to wildly distrust:)
Smart trend this am
ReplyDelete"It will take a strong catalyst, such as better than expected earnings and/or outlooks, to cause the near-term trend indicators to push the DJIA up above 10,442. The most likely scenario is the DJIA will not find a new high when it tops out, and another lower high will be followed by a lower low in commencing the bear market progression of events."
TZA is baffling the best and brightest of traders again. Well, at least it's baffling me. The SPX is set to open 10 points above its highest point yesterday. Yet TZA is trading just above its lowest low on Monday. WTF- you know, I find myself saying that alot lately, and I actually heard it several times from a colleague I had lunch with yesterday (one who owns DXD)...
ReplyDeleteAll of which is to say: WTF do I know?
ReplyDeleteHey VB...missing you this morning:)
ReplyDeleteSold the "losing" portion of my PAL trade just now at a small profit and kept the "double down" part at 3.24
Small positions in TZA/FAZ @ 36.10/14.14...
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Again, the market continued higher but has lost a little steam.
Again, so far, it only appears to be pulling back.
And again, I'm still seeing setups on the short side but I am concerned about the recent sideways action in some sectors.
However, futures are up huge pre-market. So, we could see an impressive rally--at least on the open. Look to implement a damage control plan if you're short (as you should be as a trend follower) just in case it turns into an opening gap reversal (OGRe).
Speaking of which, watch for the potential OGRe trade.
C short off @ 4.18 for a 4.5% loss.
ReplyDeleteCADC 1/2 off @ 3.56 for a 12.32 % gain.
TZA off @ 36.38...
ReplyDeleteIt's worked out exactly as I'd hoped.
ReplyDeleteTook some more PAL profits cause even though I'm probably wrong I have a hard time seeing PAL getting through that gap even now.
Plus I need the $:)
Bidding HEK @ 4.66. Yesterday 2,000 Dec. 5 calls were bought at the offer.
ReplyDeleteSounds like it's the bottom of the 9th for Steinbrenner.
ReplyDeleteBest owner ever in pro sports.
Come on PXP....keep backing up....
ReplyDeleteThis Yankee news is bumming out the market's animal spirits since most stock traders in the U.S. are both New Yorkers as well as Yankee fans.
ReplyDeleteI don't know, Eddie Debartolo was pretty good until some dick head rolled on him :)
ReplyDeleteshark- Well, let's hope the second half of the scenario works out exactly as I hope...
ReplyDeleteR.I.P George.
ReplyDeleteHe will be remember better by history than he was thought of in his own time.
This isn't widely known but George bought the Yanks at a bargain basement price using partners he later bought out and mostly borrowed money.
It was the best investment ever in a sports team I think, although thoses numbers are private.
Looks like MS is selling our shares of C today @ 4.20.
ReplyDeleteAll right. PXP @ 21.38.
ReplyDeleteBad open for AA.
ReplyDeleteWow- a real firestorm sweeps Bear Ridge....
ReplyDeleteThe bid price on FTFL has sure gone up.
ReplyDeleteAA still hasn't found it's footing.
ReplyDeleteGS - Back to $140 and humming a familiar tune...
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteCSX too:)
This certainly feels like a clearing of the decks prior to selling off
ReplyDeleteCSX...Yep. I wonder why V is having a rough go of it.
ReplyDeleteIs it Friday yet?
ReplyDeleteBought more RAS at 2.23...now hold a pretty large position.
ReplyDeleteAdding to PXP @ 21.07
ReplyDeleteTOF- OK, I checked it out last night, and as you know I'm bullish on CRE. Bidding @ 2.20.
ReplyDeleteSo today will have been the 4th upday...certainly a selloff must be around the corner.
ReplyDeleteDay 5 Sharkie...but I agree. That's why I added to PXP :) Do the hard thing right?
ReplyDeletemark - wouldn't the hard thing be to buy? i mean who would buy right now, right? everyone is probably waiting for a dip.
ReplyDeleteTOF- See my comment above yours, Re- PXP :)
ReplyDeleteGL guys.
Reopening TZA @ 35.22.
ReplyDeleteJust wondering, what are the chances July puts expire worthless? I wonder if anybody has an idea of the details...
ReplyDeleteFull position in RAS now. Average is $2.224.
ReplyDeleteMax Pain:
ReplyDeleteGLD - $119.00
SPY - $110.00
FXI - $40.00
IWM - $65.00
BP heading down...any news??
ReplyDeleteBP : Option Pain $34 Current Pain $32 Stock Closing Price $31.76
ReplyDeleteAAPL: Option Pain $260 Current Pain $270 Stock Closing Price $274.07
GS : Option pain $145 Current Pain $140 Stock Closing Price $138.13
AMZN: Option Pain $130 Current Pain $125 Stock Closing Price $125.83
GOOG: Option Pain $500 Current Pain $490 Stock Closing Price $500.03
BIDU: Option Pain $64 Current Pain $73 Stock Closing Price $74.09
Disregard that last set of data, they were for June.
ReplyDeleteBP current MP = $33.00
Totally unreal. Actually, by now it's no longer unreal. This is, IMO, a vintage bear market rally. I think we're all used to it by now.
ReplyDeleteDebating taking my NLS off. I was able to catch it at its low of the year and it's up a lot in a short amount of time. All of the small cap retail stocks I follow are up big.
ReplyDeleteIn case anyone was wondering why Japan has been in a multi decade decline:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:JPN&dl=en&hl=en&q=population+growth+japan
Now look at the US:
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:JPN&dl=en&hl=en&q=population+growth+japan#met=sp_pop_grow&idim=country:USA
NLS - Call me whatever, but personally I'd have a hard time selling under the 200dma. That said, looks like RSI(7) might've moved up through 70 but I won't know until after close (I'm not privy to this figure in realtime).
ReplyDeleteJapan - I was more under the impression that lower Chinese overhead, lax environmental regulation and corporate greed had something to do with Japan's problems.
ReplyDeleteThe population growth rate argument sounds like a positive case for illegal immigration amnesty, and along the same lines as the NAFTA mentality. Although I'm not sure if the concept would be a positive for soaking up housing inventory if immigrants couldn't find work they'd just live in caravans like they already do?
We must be aware of the spin, WDC hasn't made many good decisions in at least a couple of decades, they've sold us down the road.
I don't have the time to check out SOH right now. Does anyone have a take on that sentiment indicator?
ReplyDeleteBut I guess it doesn't really matter even though wages may fall, the concept of falling prices will be proven a mirage as natural resources become more scarce and "economies of scale" tip toward the negative.
ReplyDeleteSo which side of the "economies of scale" teeter-totter are we on, anyway?
I'll just add that I'm no economic scholar, my opinions probably aren't worth diddly b/c they're derived strictly through observations over the course of my life (which arguably wouldn't withstand the eternal test of time).
ReplyDeleteIt's the best I can do with what I think I know, there are other arguments out there and if my spin filter were finely tuned I might be capable of making sense of them.
Mark - I like the way you think:
ReplyDelete"hopefully, the "new" off shore ban will shake out some pussies at the open and I'll load up big time on PXP. "
It would not surprise me to see a red close...
ReplyDeleteCoal - Man those prices seem low. Remember the Chinese drywall fiasco and how the plaster was recovered from coal fired plant scrubbers after being toxified and made into drywall? Man, not only was that stuff full of sulfer and other nasty stuff but I'll bet there was plenty of mercury in it as well... Just think, building your house using materials that wouldn't otherwise be allowed in a landfill...
ReplyDeletemy rew is a real stinker, based on what i see in the market i just don't get the recent strength in the techs....but what the heck do i know i've only been in the biz for 15yrs and i am almost always wrong - perhaps i'm just to close to it.
ReplyDeletethat said i'm going to hold on to it for awhile longer. sure could use some "sell the news".
Wonder if/when the opening gap up will be filled?
ReplyDeleteThe sell stop order I placed on my TWM position was triggered this morning at $21.40. I have just paced a buy stop order at $21.40 so as to re-enter at the same price and then start the same game as yesterday. :)
ReplyDeleteI remember that the OpEx week in June ended on a high note, with S&P reaching 1120 or so. Maybe we'll have a strong week once again, so as to punish all those who bought short-dated puts in the hopes of a sell-off?
ReplyDeletejb - The only response I have to offer is the market's supposed to be forward looking... So I guess you're outlook for the next couple of years doesn't anticipate a bed of roses?
ReplyDeleteYou've considered the historical P/E's, EPS, and other facts in deriving your opinions?
I'm not saying you're wrong, you may well be but I don't know the depth of your observations. Not trying to influence your decision but is your entry timing based on some factors that haven't already been priced into the market? If so then congrats, perhaps the market will catch on and move in your direction.
2nd - a red close would be a doozy of a turnaround, but i would love to see it because it would scare off more bulls before going higher, IMO.
ReplyDeleteFinally- relief for the firefighters on Bear Ridge....
ReplyDeletehey CP - well, i am certainly wrong and that stinks!
ReplyDeletethe primary factor i look at when evaluating the software space is net new lic revenue - i just don't see strong new lic growth nor do i see robust pipelines.
i am probably underestimating the importance of the consolidation which is well under way in the sector, maybe that's where i am going wrong.
tof- And vice versa for me. This morning's rally is definitely scaring off a few bears. Actually, it's destroying a few bears.
ReplyDelete2nd - i think a lot of bears are still eyeing the 200 DMA as a final stop out point. we're most likely going to have a battle there.
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON (Reuters) – Nearly 60 percent of American voters say they lack faith in President Barack Obama, according to a public opinion poll published on Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteMaybe that has something to do with the 17 trillion gallons of oil that are ruining the world's oceans...which he PERSONALLY put there.
Or perhaps the Wall Street bailout. Preserving the corrupt social order and all that.
Maybe it was when he publically opposed prosecuting Bush/Cheney for war crimes......You know, like the Nazi's after World War II? You know, for torturing and murdering people.
Hey come to think of it, even I hate this motherfucker:)
CP - do you happen to know of an ETF which is just like SWH, but inverse 2x or 3x? i've been searching but i cannot find anything.
ReplyDeletethx
RE: Obama > hates a strong word. I don't hate anyone that is running our country. I'm rooting for him to succeed. He has been dealt a crappy hand and is trying to turn that 3-4 off suite into a straight. Has he made mistakes? Sure, every person has. I'm just glad we have someone smarter and more hard working than Bushy in office.
ReplyDeleteTWM made a clear lower high 30 min ago at $21.19, which fell right on the declining trendline connecting the previous two highs. If TWM rises above $21.20 soon, then we can say that the daily trend has changed. I have just placed a buy stop order for TWM at $21.20 so as to ride the breakout, if it should occur.
ReplyDeletejb - I'm looking but can't locate. My first obvious response would be to short SWH if possible.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 500 shares of HNUZF at $5.30 and placed a sell limit order at $5.80. I currently have 2000 shares of this crap, 800 more shares of HNU.TO, and 800 shares of UNG.
ReplyDeleteWhen UNG started rallying a month ago, I began regretting that I had a medium-size (but not a large-size) position in UNG, since I quickly scaled out of almost all my NG-related shares. Now, however, I am glad that I did that, since that allowed me to start scaling back into UNG/HNUZF during the recent slide. Let's see how it works out this time...
2nd - take a look at how the market acted the last time we had a sovereign credit crisis (1998). I believe there was a default back then and there wasn't one this time around. 4 months after the market began turning down it went right back up to it's old peak and it stalled for a few weeks then roared higher to new highs.
ReplyDeleteThe action is pretty similar to the current market...3 sharp drops where the 3rd drop marked the bottom.
So how are we supposed to know whether we are having a flashy bear market rally or a repeat of last July?
ReplyDeleteNext time, when I want to make a day trade, I should watch out for trades in the direction of the established trend as opposed to waiting for a trend change. It would have been much easier to short TWM when it reached the declining trendline for the 3rd time at 1:30pm EST.
ReplyDeleteOil, copper, gold, bright sunshiny day.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of trading in the direction of the trend, it looks like both SPY and IWM will close today exactly at the declining trendline connecting the tops since early May. I will buy some IWM puts today. Or maybe I'll reload the TWM position from which I got stopped out this morning.
ReplyDeleteOK, I just purchased 2 November $62 puts on IWM at $4.15 each.
ReplyDeleteDavid - If you get a gap down in the next few days I would definitely use that as a time to unload those because I think the tenor of this market has definitely changed. I think the dip buyers are back in full force. I'm eyeing the 1998 price action as a gauge for how this all can unfold. I don't think its going to be pretty for the bears
ReplyDeleteI don't know about you guys, but I find redheads fascinating.
ReplyDeleteHolding on to small positions in TZA/FAZ. In fact, will be posting on the subject of small position sizes....
ReplyDeleteYea CP, I'm flexible on that!
ReplyDeleteTOF -- I think the main concern of the market right now is not the situation in Europe but rather the economic slowdown in the USA. There is no reason for the market to break out to new highs in the coming months since the stimulus is going away now and the economy is obviously slowing down. Besides, we'll get those new taxes in 6 months, which is now within the realm of the stock market look ahead window.
ReplyDeleteSharkie - Nothing urgent but do you see anything in the chart of PLM? It sure is beat down and looks to me as if there's a decent amount of upside potential coiled up.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think the jury is still out on a slowdown in the US. On paper the facts suggest continued slow growth. Jobs growth has been about 120k for the past 4 months on average. ISMs are still well above break even. Retail sales are still growing year over year. And imports/exports have been strong lately. As far as taxes go > Geithner just came out a few days ago and said he doesn't expect cap gains/dividend taxes to go up in 2011.
ReplyDeleteI hope you're right that the markets will go down because I want to get a full position in SPY index fund in my LT account at cheaper prices, but I suspect I won't.
I am starting to turn more bullish because of those reasons above plus this continued strong price action, which is just cutting through any resistance, suggests there is strong demand from buyers. Also, Europe is not hurting nearly as bad as people thought. Germany exports are doing pretty well and the Europe ISMs are doing well.
And to top all of this off, there is a ton of skepticism still out there.
I personally believe we have hit the bottom now after looking over everything over the weekend and changing my view on things. I wouldn't be surprised to see us on the cusp of significant jobs growth over the next several months because companies over fired in the last down turn (taken by looking at the increase in jobless rate vs drop in GDP, which was much larger than prior downturns).
FD:
Moved 50% of my cash into SPY Index fund in my LT trading account. Also long NLS, STT (again), RAS, PIR (again).
Mark - I meant to post this article I came across that got me interested in RAS, which I've been watching for months now.
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704545004575353333712963158.html
If we get larger jobs growth numbers in the next few months, which I suspect we will, then RAS is the most leveraged (in my opinion) to a better jobs market and a better CRE market. I think it has the potential to do a KFN.
CP- REAL red heads. right? :)
ReplyDeleteNow, if UNG could get out of the way....???
TOF- Thanks. My order missed by a penny, but I'll see if I can get a good price tomorrow after I read your article.
ReplyDeleteINTC- WOW....
ReplyDeleteMark - check out this chart on temp hiring...there is a HUGE disconnect between temp and perm hiring. In each of the past 2 recoveries in the past 20 years, significant perm hiring happened right after a discrepancy like this.
ReplyDeletehttp://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2010/7/8/saupload_book1_20656_image001.png
Just bought 500 shares of TWM at $20.40 and placed a sell stop limit order on these shares at $20.20/20.
ReplyDeleteTWM broke it's 50 sma today and next support is 18.80. Of course, charting with the ultra's sucks. IWM is above the 200 and just below the 50/100sma.
ReplyDeleteSPY broke the 200ema/50sma today and is just below the 100/200sma.
I am giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt now, and that's why I am using a stop for my AH TWM purchase.
ReplyDeletei'd expect a gap open to the 200 DMA with a test down to the 50 DMA tomorrow...should be quite volatile.
ReplyDeleteTOF, how about a plain old gap down with a finish -2%? :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - that would be great...FOR YOU! I'm rooting for you, but I think I'm rooting for my positions a little more. Sorry...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete