I stopped watching the ticks shortly after the DJIA dropped -120 points, thinking that whatever close I envisioned would be 'wrong.' And that's pretty much what happened. No way did I foresee a flat close.
Watching the price action in the extended-hours session, it's even more confusing:
(a) GOOG is trading down -20 points. Even INTC is down a few ticks. QQQQ is up.
(b) GS settles with the SEC, paying a fine that any of its partners could write a personal check for. Chump change, really. So XLF must be up big, right? Let's see- +0.3% after hours. WTF.
Any Tom-Dick-or-Harry (let's give Joe a break) could throw out a prediction in this trading environment and be 'right' for a few minutes. In fact, all of them do just that, and all of them make the most of their 5 minutes of fame.
Joe (J6P) is probably the smart money here, watching with bemusement from the sidelines.
For the record, here's my prediction for Friday's open: down -115 points. Led by financial and technology. Why? Because (a) financials can't get anything going on the GS news, and (b) GOOG will set the tone in the tech sector.
ReplyDeleteAnd I'll probably be wrong. But I have a 'take,' and that's it.
Had loaded 1/3 into DGP the other day on a pullback and sold all but 1500 sh for about $3100 profit. Maybe should have reloaded, but wasn't at the screen when it bottomed again, so missed the opportunity.
ReplyDeleteAll accounts at all time record levels, 98% cash or metal.
FF
ReplyDeletedoubletalk is so much easier to use later to prove you were right. I've had the same problems reading his stuff. You miss a word, let alone misinterpret something meant to be sarcastic, and it can change the meaning 180 degrees.
Someday the song I'm singing will be wrong. I hope I have the vision to see that when its true.
Way to go, CB. Sticking with one trade and tuning out the noise may be the way to go.
ReplyDeleteI can't get into 'deciphering' the QQQQ/XLF moves right now, and it's probably a meaningless exercise anyway.
"All accounts at all time record levels, 98% cash or metal."
ReplyDeleteWay to go, cheapy! Once ECU doubles in the near future (hopefully I'll be able to sell my HNU.TO profitably and move that money into ECU before it makes the move), my accounts will also rise to record levels. :)
2nd - its a tough game this day trading stuff.
ReplyDeleteSo I think we are closing in on a place for our wedding. We're checking it out tomorrow. It's are great place...right on the cliffs in San Diego overlooking the ocean. The budget is right...if we book it for an early January wedding.
By the way, I don't think the news from GOOG was that bad. The EPS thing is more of a company specific thing. Most importantly is that the revenues were strong and better than expected, in my opinion, because it is a good read on the advertising market.
ReplyDeletehey mark - this guy is thinking along the lines of what i'm thinking:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38260738
"Death Cross"
ReplyDeleteWho comes up with these market myths. Almost every blog and news reporter are on this. Who started this. Okay, you can see where I am going with this. Lower highs, lower lows. Must be a slow week in the market. How much does that secret party want to scare or shake the market. If you are really long-term this might be important for the buy and hold crowd. I don't like this at all. My opinion: we're going higher on this train. Yes, we might get a dip, but for me this is opportunity spelt 'b-u-y'.
Today in my webinar, the presenter suddenly stopped the presentation to say hey guys look at this; and he proceded to show us the death cross and tell us we "might" want to consider this as an important signal. To be fair he did not scare us, just said to be aware.
I am taking a look at gold stocks and HGU.to. If they are going to scare us, I want to be in a product that is going up. And I still will get back into Natural Gas on a dip.
Congrats to everyone who had a great day today and for your guidance.
TOF,
ReplyDeleteI disagree because with taxes rising in 2011, long term investors have huge encouragement to take profits in 2010 while rates are lower. In addition, with stimulus ending (if you trust the likes of the Fed's Keynesian theories), then the economy should be expected to further weaken after the elections.
I think we sway in and out of the depression for another 20 to 30 years if they do the right things to end the imbalances quickly, and if not, a complete collapse of the dollar and the nation within 5 years.
Good thing I'm no economist. I'd STARVE with ideas like that.
tof- The reason GOOG missed earnings is obvious to me. If Mark can talk them into allowing Adsense back onto this site, they'll 'beat' next quarter, hands down. Bad decision, taking ads off the only site where people know how to generate income.
ReplyDeletecheapy - from what i've been reading they're talking about extending the low rates on gains/dividends. geithner even said rates aren't going up on them. i think they're smart enough to not raise rates while we're slowly recovering.
ReplyDelete2nd- They wont even respond. I honestly don't get it. They also wont, or I'm doing it wrong, send us the money we earned.
ReplyDeleteGOOG- TOF is better a valuations than I am, but GOOG has 4B more dollars in the bank than last quarter. Maybe it is being looked at now more like a MSFT than a growth co.?
I'm now about 45% long. I plan on being very careful with UNG. I HOPE I wont hesitate to take profits. It is a large position for me and a scary vehicle to ride.
TOF- I'm hearing Cap gains to be 20%. I've also never seen any reliable work that tax selling has any significant effect....Though I traded and lost money on that angle early this year.
ReplyDeleteCP- Missed getting back into CADC by .03 today. I might have missed for good.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I have to say I'm surprised the convertible notes that were exchanged were due in 2027. To me it looks like the holder was happy to make the exchange. What am I missing?
ReplyDeleteMark - It could mean one or both of the following:
ReplyDelete(1) The lender doesn't have confidence that RAS will repay the note
(2) The lender would prefer to be an equity holder because they believe the shares have significant upside.
Completely different scenarios so it's hard to know for sure which one they were thinking of. Could be a combination of both.
Well, looks like I missed a lot of stuff but it leaves me wondering what difference it would have made.
ReplyDeleteMark - I didn't realize you sold CADC... Don't blame you, six of one or a half dozen of the other.
I still think CADC will do really well if this market can find the northern road.
PAL chart still looks good to me.
Nikkei tanking...you could be right 2nd.
ReplyDeleteMark - CADC seems to have broken short term support, you may have another shot at a low should you be inclined.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anyone really has one iota of an idea where this market's going.
TOF- I sometimes think it's (1) on shorter term notes and the holder get's a better "deal". This seems the later to me. Can you find the cash value of the note? (How much is owed still) Or was it an interest only? Am I correct in calculating the exchange value for the holder to be 7.3M?
ReplyDeleteCADC- I really want to get back in. It just seemed prudent to book the profits. It's still a whisper below where I sold it.
ReplyDeleteS&P - Looks like we closed that gap up from a couple of days ago.
ReplyDeleteDamn, what a critical point we are at. Depending how one draws trend lines, we are either just above/below the trend from April. Above the 50sma/200ema and below the 100/200sma. I bet even Landry has his big blue arrow in this area. If we break here, the bear case (chartists) are toast. GL to all players!!
ReplyDeleteT3D- I'd love to here what your thinking at this juncture.
ReplyDeleteCP- For some reason on my SPX charts, gaps aren't shown. On ES it is filled and on SPY it missed by .11.
ReplyDeleteMark - Didn't SPY close on the 12th @ $108.24 then open on the 13th @ $108.93? Today the SPY low was $108.17
ReplyDeleteI can't really see it very well, maybe I've got the closing price on the 12th of $108.24 wrong?
Actually, it looks like on the S&P chart we missed closing the gap by ~2.5 points...
ReplyDeleteCP- I have the SPY close on the 12th @ 108.03.
ReplyDeleteYep, according to the Yahoo chart, SPY closed 7/12 @ $108.03
ReplyDeleteSo I can't actually claim the gap was filled but it sure was close... Maybe it's better it wasn't, which means there were gap buyers lined up waiting???
Oh, I just noticed BC is bullish - a look out signal for longs.
ReplyDeleteCP- I pay more attention to your wizard than his. Nothing more than a used idea salesman in an cheap internet suit. Haven't checked in in a long time.
ReplyDeletechicken - haha. trying to figure out how this potential gap down plays into having the fewest people on board when it makes its true move. did enough bulls really hop on in the past 7 days to do this?
ReplyDeleteThe Sensex is where its at by the way:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXBOM:.BSESN
Check out that outperformance.
Mark - This avatar is just plain old classic "Mr. Wizard", "Trader Wizard" was already taken.
ReplyDeleteNikkei is down considerably, concern over US economy and Japanese exporters on weaker dollar.
Ticker Company Price Change
ReplyDeleteCRJI.OB China Runji Cement $0.11 +83.16%
Marko, I live in a condo and have been tied up with board meeting and a crisis we have going on here that could cost the association hundreds of thousands of $$$'s.
ReplyDeleteSo I have been distracted and not totally focused. The dialog that has been going on here is good and you guys are way better than I at calling these daily zigzags.
I traded intra day for two years on the large SP contracts usually just 1 or 2 contracts in the late 1990's and have no desire for that anymore and that type of trading is what the market has been rewarding best unless your get these swing moves just right.
Truthfully, I have been fed up with all the bullshit that has been going in the markets and our country. I have the capacity to wait a few decades before I run into problems unless our currency collapses so who needs the aggravation that the sociopaths have caused in almost bring down the system.
I just prefer an environment where we have very good winds at our sails and that may just be wishful thinking.
I sure you noticed that I'm very opinionated and direct, many people can't take that. So, I really have no opinion except that you take your best shot at a set-up you like and a stop placement that makes sense to you and let the chips fall where they will.
Besides, the market could care less what I think. At some point the fire will come back. GL
BTW, starting to read "No one would listen" by Markopolos regarding Madoff. It is really good. The wife read it in 2.5 days, she could not put it down.
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