Sunday, July 18, 2010
7/18/10 (Another) Year Of Living Dangerously
I wasn't planning to repost the trailer to a film which blew me away when it was released in the early eighties. Along with 'The Killing Fields,' it effectively captured the turmoil and violence that accompanied change in Asia in the latter half of the twentieth century. When you chip away the bullshit plastered over Communist manifestos, it all comes down to the same power principles used by the Mafia- violence and/or the threat of violence.
Well, my reason for reposting the trailer is actually to document the rise and fall of Mel Gibson. I recall reading bits and pieces about Gibson's devotion to wife and family in the nineties, thinking this guy might be another Paul Newman- a superstar actor worthy of respect both on and off-screen.
What a disappointment.
Not saying I necessarily believe all the crap he's accused of. I'm just disappointed that he walked away from his family. And I would refer to the lifestyle he's replaced it with as 'living dangerously.'
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Speaking of 'living dangerously,' I think a week from now we'll all be wondering what hit us.
ReplyDeleteA truck- or a train.
ReplyDelete2nd- No chit, hun? What an ass.
ReplyDeleteWell cap holding.
See you guys tonight. 4 games today for Kendra.
4 games here, or in Sacto?
ReplyDeleteLuckily here. I'd melt in Sacto.
ReplyDeleteRe: From Russia With Love/ Multi-Strategy Resistant MRSA
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4458 comments) on Sun, 07/18/2010 - 14:50 #65934 (in reply to #65911)
Vad- Appreciate the clarifications.
A non-trending market would effectively defeat most "Maximum Return Strategic Allocations," would it not? Not unlike the up-and-coming bug with the same acronym, traders (collecively) find endlessly inventive ways to game profits from each other, thus ensuring the 'Market' a personality every bit as frustrating as that of "Methicillin-Resistant 'Staph' Aureus."
It's kind of an insidious organism, the Market- one that takes its time setting a trap. Twenty years luring an entire generation of investors into 'Buy-and-Hold/But-the-Dip' complacency before mutating into an extended period of trendless trekking. Day trading may prove to outperform all other strategies for the next twenty years. Now that's a scary scenario.
Re: the meaning of float newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4458 comments) on Sun, 07/18/2010 - 14:55 #65935 (in reply to #65932)
ReplyDeleteloannetter- Yeah, it sounds great. I'll have to try it.
"(good idea to ask a local if there are any waterfalls.)"
Applies as well to buy-and-hold'rs floating towards Retirement while watching 'the lengthening shadows.'
Re: Current market action>> Black Monday newSubmitted by ToddinFL (141 comments) on Sun, 07/18/2010 - 15:19 #65937 (in reply to #65936)
ReplyDelete2nd_ave
The financials were particularly weak on Friday, and they will likely lead any further market decline. Look at the action on Friday in Bank of America [BAC], gapping down big on huge volume and closing at $13.98 (-9.16%). Citigroup [C], gapping down and closing at 3.90 (-6.25%). Wells Fargo [WFC] gapping down and closing at $26.24 [-5.65%].
Some of the major U.S. money center banks are insolvent, imo. They have hidden their losses and to this day have refused to come clean on the true status of their balance sheets. The gig will be up soon enough. You can only hide and paper over the losses for so long.
Re: Current market action>> Black Monday
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Grym (2242 comments) on Sun, 07/18/2010 - 15:54 #65939 (in reply to #65936)
2nd,
"(b) If the average buy-and-hold investor was able to resist selling at SPX 667, it's potentially worrisome. As with Grym's references to his diehard retired banker buddy, it makes me wonder what would happen should we retest the lows and begin to break below 667? Would that be enough to break their tenacity and cause a true panic bottom- one that might lie far below the kinds of numbers we're mentally throwing out now? Crowd behavior can get pretty intense under true pressure."
I think I know my friend well enough after nearly forty years to say that nothing can make him change his formula.
He has been following the same "balanced portfolio" strategy so long it has become a religion to him. To change now would be heresy. Well, he has dabbled with a few thousand occasionally as a distraction or experiment, but 40% Vanguard Total Bond Fund and 60% Vanguard Total Stock Fund is/was/and will be for him. Vogle is his hero and guru. The 50% drop in the stock fund in 2009 bothered him, but didn't sway his resolve and the last year has reinforced it.
I think many other buy-and-holders were 401(k) people who had trusted their money to fund managers and no longer trust anyone. My guess is these people have mostly switched to fixed income whatever they have left, or have been using it to keep their homes and feed their families.
I believe the day to day market moves lately have been the big players and government shills. They may very well exit the U.S. markets rapidly.
Things look pretty scary to me and I own only one stock (less than 4% of my total — ETP). All else is in bond funds (which I will leave at first actual rate increase) or gold.
Re: Current market action>> Black Monday newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4461 comments) on Sun, 07/18/2010 - 16:29 #65940 (in reply to #65939)
ReplyDelete"He has been following the same "balanced portfolio" strategy so long it has become a religion to him. To change now would be heresy."
Grym- Most world religions which have endured have withstood challenges to its precepts, and in fact, encourage followers to use their God-given intellectual curiosity and common sense. In contrast to fanaticism, which for my generation will always be epitomized by Jonestown. It's hard to say at this point where 'buy-and-hold' lies on the spectrum.
I'm long, I'm ignorant, and I'm biased. I think Friday was a shakeout before higher highs.
ReplyDeleteAustralia plummets -1.9%, but as we all know by now: (a) So what, and (b) I don't care much about the action in Australia to begin with.
ReplyDeleteNational holiday in Japan.
Seoul is down <1%.
ReplyDeleteSo far, Black Monday is safely off the table...
oh, and I forgot to add: I'm probably wrong.
ReplyDeleteYeah and I'm probably wrong too ;)
ReplyDelete2nd- Kendra played against you home towns finest today. You'll be happy to know they are very well coached and tough young ladies.
ReplyDeleteTBT is quickly approaching a buy zone again it seems.
ReplyDeleteIs that your way of saying we lost? ;)
ReplyDelete2nd- Back in '87 I wasn't gaming the market...Too busy gaming the ladies. Did Asia lead hard that weekend?
ReplyDeleteYes, Asia sold off ahead of the US.
ReplyDelete2nd- Honestly, I was very impressed. Kendra plays for a Division 1 team and this was a Division 3 Tourny. Kendra's team was invited to play to fill out the bracket. They won but your girls came in 2nd ( :) ) so really, they won for the Division. They could easily compete at the Division 1 level. Your U14 (under 14) girls won their bracket. I watched 3 of their games. They are VERY good. Better than Kendra's club team in that age group.
ReplyDeleteDavid - regarding the real estate market its an interesting debat.
ReplyDeleteThere are several factors at play in housing but the foremost demand creator is jobs, with a close second being inventory. Assuming a slow recovery in jobs over time, the next most important factor behind these two is population growth. The US should experience population growth of about 30 million people in this decade. That equates to about 7.5 Million homes that people have to live in. The next most important factor after this is the decay of old homes, which have to be destroyed and replaced with new homes as the old ones become unlivable. I haven't done enough research to put a number on those but I the question becomes will the combination of:
(1) significantly lower demand (relative to historical norms) from 2007 to 2010
+
(2) demand driven by population growth (which should create demand for about 750,000 homes a year)
+
(3) demand driven by replacing old homes
should this be enough to make up for the excess inventory in the market place? In the chart I posted from a few days ago - here is the post again:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S6ocQCnlCTI/AAAAAAAAH3A/Ao8aCURldSk/s1600/NHSSalesFeb2010.jpg
I made some simple assumptions:
(1) average new home sales is 650k (per eyeing up this chart). I think this may be conservative though just because this chart is from 1963 to 2010 and in that period the US population went from 179 million to 309 million. So I think the average could potentially be a lot larger if the jobs market were to rebound because of natural demand from a population that doubled in size.
(2) in using 650k as an avg, i estimate that from 1999 to 2007, excess inventory added to the market was 3.15 million homes or about 4.5 years worth. from 2008 to 2010 about 850k too few homes were built, which would leave the excess amount at 2.3million.
(3) if you use 700k as an avg (again, which I would argue as probably still conservative because of population growth) then excess inventory is "only" 1.7 million homes and over 1 million of that was soaked up in the past 3 years.
(4) if you use 750k as an avg then excess inventory is 1.1 million homes and 1.2 million of that was soaked up in the past 3 years.
So as far as excess inventory goes we're probably still at least 3 years from soaking it up. but lower interest rates are making homes a lot more affordable and I would probably rather buy housing stocks before the actual bottom. You could be right though...it's still probably too early to invest in them for the long term. That's probably another year or two away. I think housing stocks didn't actually bottom until 1991 which was when new home sales bottomed. one could argue that just based on the above chart they're probably near the lows but not based on the inventory assumptions above.
TOF- Thanks for the detailed analysis. I'll only add a few points. I'll try to find an article I read a couple months back that had a tag line, roughly..."The next great crisis in the USA, housing shortage." Area's where 2nd lives and I grew up are done. So the natural out flow is to places like I live now. Here, the new mantra in "urban growth boundries." Large tract projects take a minimum of 4 years to inception of construction. Things just don't move that quickly.
ReplyDeleteI was surprised that LEN started a large higher end project here in Petaluma at this time, but they are selling well.
Most of the mid sized builders in this area, 400-500 homes a year, are gone. Larger Co.s like LEN have come in and bought up the assets. Your right about the balance sheets of these Co. They are very strong and can wait. It's very different than a tech Co. with a lot of cash. They need to buy Co.'s that have some synergy that makes sense. Builders basically buy raw land assets of failed business.
Well see, but I'm watching it closely.
VB- Your in the middle of this battle. What's your take?
ReplyDeleteHousing:
ReplyDelete9.5% unemployment
20% unemployment closer to truth
Jobless benefits being stop or postponed
People are stopping mortgage payments
Bank shadow inventory expanding
Real underwriting standards with 20% down
If rates rise hurts real estate
Maybe in 2 or 3 but not yet and you risk very little by waiting especially if you are a cash buyer.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Published: 8:52PM BST 15 Jul 2010
The euro rocketed to a two-month high of $1.29 and sterling jumped two cents to almost $1.54 after the Fed confessed that the US economy may not recover for five or six years. Far from winding down emergency stimulus, the bank may need a fresh blast of bond purchases or quantitative easing.
Usually the dollar serves as a safe haven whenever the world takes fright, and there was plenty of sobering news from China and other quarters on Thursday. Not this time. The US itself has become the problem.
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RBS considers suing Goldman to recoup $841m
OPEC lifts demand for its oil for first time in three years
US jobless claims fall as factories stay open
Chinese rating agency strips West of AAA status
With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932
Warning signals of a double-dip recession flash across the world
"The worm is turning," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "We're in a world of rotating sovereign crises. The market seems to become obsessed with one idea at a time, then violently swings towards another. People thought the euro would break-up. Now we're moving into a new phase because we're hearing alarm bells of a US double dip."
Mr Bloom said a deep change is under way in investor psychology as funds and central banks respond to the blizzard of shocking US data and again focus on the fragility of an economy where public debt is surging towards 100pc of GDP, not helped by the malaise enveloping the Obama White House. "The Europeans have aired their dirty debt in public and taken some measures to address it, whilst the US has not," he said.
The Fed minutes warned of "significant downside risks" and a possible slide into deflation, an admission that zero interest rates, $1.75 trillion of QE, and a fiscal deficit above 10pc of GDP have so far failed to lift the economy out of a structural slump.
Continued:
ReplyDelete"The Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably," it said. The economy might not regain its "longer-run path" until 2016.
"The Fed is throwing in the towel," said Gabriel Stein, of Lombard Street Research. "They are preparing to start QE again. This was predictable because the M3 broad money supply has been contracting for months."
The Fed minutes amount to a policy thunderbolt, evidence of how quickly the recovery has lost steam. Just weeks ago the Fed was mapping out withdrawal of stimulus.
Goldman Sachs said it expects the euro to rise to $1.35 by the end of the year. The yen will appreciate to ¥83, through the pain barrier for most of Japan's big exporters. The new twist is that SAFE, China's $2.4 trillion fund, has begun buying record amounts of Japanese bonds, a shift in reserve allocation away from the dollar.
The signs of a deep and sudden slowdown in the US are becoming ever clearer as the "sugar rush" from the Obama fiscal stimulus wears off and the inventory boost fades. California, Illinois and other states are cutting spending, tightening US fiscal policy by 0.8pc of GDP.
Thursday's plunge in the Philadelphia Fed's July index of new manufacturing orders to –4.3 suggests that the economy may have buckled abruptly, as it did in mid-2008. The Economic Cycle Research Institute's ECRI leading indicator has tumbled, reaching –8.3pc last week. This points to a sharp slowdown or recession within three months.
While US port data looked buoyant in June, the details were troubling. Outbound traffic from Long Beach fell from 139,000 containers in May to 116,000 in June. Shipments from Los Angeles fell from 161,000 to 155,000. This drop in exports is worsening the US trade deficit, eroding the dollar.
The US workforce has shrunk by a 1m over the past two months as discouraged jobless give up the hunt. Retail sales have fallen for the past two months. New homes sales crashed to 300,000 in May after tax credits ran out, the lowest since records began in 1963. Mortgage applications have fallen by 42pc to 13-year low since April. Paul Dales at Capital Economics said the "shadow inventory" of unsold properties has risen to 7.8m. "The double dip in housing has begun," he said.
Alcoa, CSX, Intel, and JP Morgan have reported good earnings, but they mostly did so in July 2008 just before their shares collapsed. Such earnings rarely catch turning points and can be a lagging indicator. Profits have been boosted in this cycle by cost-cutting, which is self-defeating for the economy as a whole.
The minutes confirm the Fed is split down the middle over QE. Fed watchers say the Board in Washington wants to be ready to launch another round of bond purchases if necessary, pushing the banks balance sheet from $2.4 trillion towards $5 trillion, but hawks at the regional banks are highly sceptical.
A study by the San Francisco Fed said the interest rates need to be –4.5pc to stabilise the economy under the Fed's "rule of thumb". Since this is impossible, massive QE needs to make up the difference.
Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said the US authorities have botched policy response. "They are forcing banks to contract lending by raising their capital asset ratios. They have let M3 shrink by 1pc a month, as in the early 1930s. The solution is simple. The Fed must raise the level of deposits by purchasing bonds from the non-banking system as the Bank of England has done. They refuse to do it," he said.
Killing Fields:
ReplyDeleteI have a friend here, Pat, who was in one of those camps and escaped. He once told me they asked if anyone had experience with working with water buffalo for plowing. He had a little and told them. He said they gave him this old water buffalo that was starving and nearly blind in one eye and said "if your buffalo dies you die" he said what or in today's term WTF!
He nurse it back to health and would constantly be picking up extra grass to feed his buffalo and in the evening look for extra food for it.
One of the nicest, gentle human being you will ever meet.
Interesting comments by the Wiz this morning. I know some of you think I'm too hard on him, but anyone who refers to himself in those terms should expect to be challenged- should in fact enjoy the debate. Actually, I'm hard on anyone who tries to make predictions based on some kind of esoteric 'explanation' of the interrelationships in the market. I don't take any of them, most of all myself, too seriously- for the simple reason I'd lose too much money if I did ;)
ReplyDeleteIn the above case, I just want to point out the contrasts between the 'call(s)' and positioning. To the best of my recollection, the call was bullish- until Friday morning, when it was bearish, and he was in cash- then kind of bearish over the weekend, with add'l comments about being glad he was in cash- then bullish on Sunday, and sort of proud of having made that call based on..overnight action and premarket indications.
Well, OK. I'm just trying to figure out a way to make money/have made any money based on the timing of any of the above...
2nd,
ReplyDeleteGood Morning!
I have never been all that surprised by Mel Gibson's mouth as he has never been real to me; had Kevin Costner or George Clooney said the same things, that would have truly surprised me. Anyway Mel's finished in Hollywood. He can finance his own films but distribution might be iffy:)
We are having insane rain and thunderstorms here.
"The Wiz" is a soft yellow cheese that folks put on cheesesteaks:)
ReplyDelete********PISSING IN THE PUNCH********
ReplyDelete"PIEDRAS NEGRAS, Mexico – The gunmen did not say a word as they jumped from their cars and stormed the private party. They simply opened fire. When they were done, 17 people lay dead and 18 wounded.
Sunday's massacre in the city of Torreon was ghastly, but no longer unprecedented in northern Mexico, a region that is slammed day after day by gruesome slayings that authorities attribute to an increasingly brutal battle between drug gangs feuding over territory.
Investigators had no suspects or information on a possible motive in the attack, but Coahuila, where Torreon is located, is among several northern Mexican states that have seen a spike in drug-related violence as the Gulf cartel and its former enforcers, the Zetas, fight for control of drug-trafficking routes."
Nah. No good reason to defend the borders. No border fence required.
I think the border fence should be 75 feet tall with razorwire around the top, and the guards should have orders to shoot on sight, no questions asked, be they men, women, children or housepets.
Remember that crap they used to say about "jobs Americans don't want"?
That was some real bullshit wasn't it?
"Erin Burnett....Putting smiles on trader's faces..."
ReplyDeleteMark Haines.
shark - the Wiz to me always had prices that were insaaaaaane...and a founder that is now in jail.
ReplyDeleteif i were a gambler i would be buying puts on BP. reports of excessive methane gas and a ruptured in the sea bed because of this spill are scaring the shit out of me and might mean far worse than just a viable short on a single company.
ReplyDeletere real estate.
ReplyDeleteRealtor friend told me last week she lost 3 escrows due to not being able to get them qualified. All 3 had perfect credit and were putting high down payments.
That is the state of real estate from my sunny perspective is banks are the problem.
Starting a position in Faz and Srs
and no long term predictions from me.
"Crazy" Eddie Antar is a free man now and much of the money he stole has never been recovered.
ReplyDeleteAnybody makin' any trades?
A red close seems inevitable.
ReplyDeleteKWK off @ 12.70 for a 12% return.
ReplyDeleteVB<
ReplyDeleteYour picks look like winners as does TZA.
That rally fizzled out fast...
ReplyDeleteBlack Monday back on the table.
ReplyDeleteMaybe. I don't expect anything nearly as decisive /cathartic than a Black Monday though. At least on Black Monday everyone knows what to do. They go short and panick out, and at the bottom they buy and go long.
ReplyDeleteBlack monday is easy.
My bias though is decidedly to the shortside.
Turning red.
ReplyDeletePlus 2nd, it's interesting...The dollar is weak and the Euro is stronger I think, so maybe this a kind of a de-coupling that will catch a lot of peeps with their pants down:)
ReplyDeleteBut that I just pulled out of my culo.
Nothing in this market is easy.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Are you still following MMR?
ReplyDeleteI 'could have' made an easy 2-3% shorting the open.
ReplyDeleteI didn't. Why? It just seemed 'too easy.'
So it's not easy.
Here comes the 'shake down,' hooligans banging on the sides of the train trying to get weak hands to give up their lunch money.
ReplyDeleteI can't find an edge here. I should turn away from the monitor for a couple of hours.
ReplyDeleteWe have some high-profile earnings reports this week. If you have a time horizon longer than a day, I would be careful.
ReplyDeleteRight on.
ReplyDeleteObama pushing for unemployment benefits is O playing into his enemies hands. Plus we all know what we really need is to force, cajole or incentivize maufacturing away from China and India and back to the U.S., and I KNOW damn well that my man the Big "O" isn't nearly revolutionary enuff to be sugesticating that shit:)
2nd I am now thinking bigger down day based on commodity drops.
guys - i think the 1,050 area is very important to bulls and any downside move will be defended pretty vigorously at this level. if it gives way then i'm giving up on my rally call.
ReplyDeleteMMR, Mark sold this morning. The methane rumor is too much for me and scary.
ReplyDeleteAdding to PXP @ 19.65. ( $'s from KWK )
ReplyDeleteYah man...Don't force any trades ever, especially not in this environ.
ReplyDeleteIf you do anything though go short,,,,but wait for the big o to flapp his purple flappers first:)
T3D- I hear you. Thanks.
ReplyDeletehaving said that, the movements in the markets today are definitely negative. and if AAPL loses 232 i'm going to be seriously considering going to 100% cash.
ReplyDeleteOk 2nd...Just go short now.
ReplyDeleteHmm, still doesn't look too good...
ReplyDeleteTBT looks good though, let's see if more Treasury suckers show up once the indicies begin their tumble in earnest...
T3D- Good call on 232.
ReplyDeleteAren't there any other means of economic relief aside from sending the unemployed more cash?
ReplyDeletePast 15-30 minutes appears to have a bear trap. For bears on the sidelines who just couldn't take being on the sidelines any longer.
ReplyDeleteGL guys.....
ReplyDelete2nd - that's my thinking too but this moves so quickly it's hard to tell. one thing that i read in jeff saut's article today is that the selling pressure has been getting less severe on each thrust lower by the markets. that can be seen by looking at the VIX on each low, but he used another measure. this is also what happened as the markets bottomed out in the winter/spring of 1.5 years ago.
ReplyDeleteadded some more RAS at $1.96 and NLS at $1.55.
ReplyDeleteTED Spread is heading back down:
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=.TEDSP%3AIND
Baltic Dry Index was positive for the first time in over a month (and about 60%).
ReplyDeleteCoulda bought NANO @ $8.50, but there's some rumor about lost Intel business.
ReplyDeleteTMV - Looks like a buy here too, assuming more fools don't show up to buy Treasuries. The FED should just print money and buy Treasuries so as to keep feeding the thoughtless lepers in WDC.
ReplyDeleteRelevant to RAS:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/215167-commercial-real-estate-markets-continue-improving-trend
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100719-707760.html
Doubled the DGP position this am. Down about 2% on it for the get go this am. The hazard of owning anything at all overnight. I hate my life.
ReplyDeleteI always buy to heavily too early in a panic and don't have enough dry powder to really load up when a bottom is in. Then I sell too early on the bounce.
ReplyDeleteWhy is it I can LEARN from these mistakes?
Long PAL 3.03 massive size:)
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm talking @ the stock pos:)
Real Estate, why I'm staying away, for now....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/the-4-trillion-dollar-question-2/
Also today: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/chart-of-day-4-trillion-hangover/
China's oil-equivalent energy consumption surpasses that of the US... (IEA)
ReplyDeleteAll right, I am placing a sell stop order on my TWM at the recent double bottom level, $22.75. It this stop is hit, I will place a buy stop order at $22.80, so as to make sure it doesn't fake me out and then run away from me.
ReplyDeleteNow that TWM dropped well below $22.75, I have moved down my buy stop order to $22.75, so as to re-enter at exactly the same price at which I got stopped out.
ReplyDeletetest
ReplyDeletebob said
Why is it I can LEARN from these mistakes?
e5
I know I'm early on this and certainly biased but Friday sure looked like a shakeout to me.
ReplyDeleteLowering my buy stop on TWM to $22.70...
ReplyDeleteOn a second thought, let's play it safe and keep that order at $22.75...
ReplyDeleteOpening SRS @ 26.88...
ReplyDeleteNow moving my buy stop down to $22.60...
ReplyDeleteScrew it -- back into TWM at $22.54. I have already "saved" myself $200 today by exiting at $22.75 and re-entering at $22.54.
ReplyDeleteQuite a turn around for FTWR.
ReplyDelete250 more shares of TWM at $22.50...
ReplyDeletePlaced a sell limit for all my 1250 shares of TWM at $22.62, and that limit was hit but only 900 shares were sold.
ReplyDeleteNow the remaining 350 were sold at $22.62. Placing a buy limit order for all 1250 shares I just sold at $22.55, and also a buy stop at $22.75, so as not to let it get away from me.
ReplyDeleteMy buy stop was triggered, but the actual fill happened at $22.72, for the original 1000 shares of TWM. I am back to my original position + $130 I made with my crazy day trading. :)
ReplyDeleteSold my NLS at $1.64 that I bought earlier today at $1.55.
ReplyDeleteit should have read...
ReplyDeleteWhy is it I can't LEARN from these mistakes?
I keep making the same ones, over and over and over. Nothing EVER goes up from where I buy. It ALWAYS goes down and usually I onlt salvage myself by doubling as the point of total bewilderment and unreasonable panic. But I THOUGHT the first buy was at the point of panic. I just don't know anything at all.
SRS- Sold off @ 27.19. Done for the day.
ReplyDeletecb- I hear you. However, are we not talking about a guy who (a) racked up 1000% on his portfolio, and (b) consistently racks up 3-4 digits gains every week?
ReplyDeleteWhereas I made $145 on 500 shares of SRS.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the problem is position size? Try opening with 1/10th the sizes you open with now. If/when it goes against you, double up. When it REALLY gets stretched, THEN throw in the last 80%. It sounds like I'm joking, but I'm not. That kind of 'have a little skin the game, but wait for major discomfort to throw it all in' kind of worked me back in 2009...
hi guys,e5 here.
ReplyDeletetogether you all constitute a grand reality show/ i've learned so much in so many different ways that i first must write i'm probably the oldest reader, the most rambumptuous super cautious almost trader. almost because i'm still not a gambler.
so i don't really have any great tech to share.
however, to answer bob'? i suggest an old movie ,'lovers and other strangers'. IMO most of you will find at least 1 character identifier; you will bond to. in short bob it's, ' you pay's your money and makes your choice. i would be happy to have your disciplined savy and successfully use it as you do .
2nd opened a comment on expressing poetic sadness in re gibson's lack of caring. mr shark chimed in w/ a future forecast. iwould like to attach nyt david brooks's article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/16/opinion/16brooks.html?ref=davidbrooks
that forcefully describes a person's narcissistic behavioral goals as being outside
their own raw comprehension
lastly mr shark, since you find it necessary to correct misspellings; please note that your use of dirth was only phonetically correct.
e5
e5 is only possible as a second move, did i play e4?
ReplyDeletewho honestly uses this crap?
ReplyDeletehttp://slopeofhope.com/2010/07/very-longterm-fan-lines-on-sp-500.html#disqus_thread
Looks like he is only relying on technical lines that support his argument.
Telestar3d said...
ReplyDeletee5 is only possible as a second move, did i play e4?
you re a wiseguy, no
e5
BTW i'm 80yro and hoary
Maybe I'm just lucky that in the long run I'm so damned stubborn, that on the bad, but not deadly mistakes, eventually things come back to black for me because they keep printing more confetti.
ReplyDeleteMy positions were recovering by end of day, so I held in hopes of them passing more free lunches for the unemployed (= more confetti money).
Was down 12k at the open, down about 8k at the close. 2 accounts well off highs, and 2 at new all time highs (the ones that bought today's panic). Its so hard to keep gains and add to them...
Yes, its all just gambling. When someone asks what I do, I tell them I gamble for a living. They give me a shocked look, and then I tell them I gamble on Stocks, ETF's and Commodities, and then they think its "OK". Little do they know...
No, e4-e5 refers to the first two moves in a chess game playing the Ruy Lopez opening.
ReplyDeleteI was just trying to find out indirectly if you were a chess player.
Guess not!
e5- Well, you would have to be at least 50 years old, as Gen X/Y 'kids' rarely get into 'sadness' (they generally don't feel sad, they get mad things didn't go their way), and most of them wouldn't recognize 'poetic' if they ran into it ;)
ReplyDeleteT3D/e5- I don't play chess well, but guessed your comment referred to it.
ReplyDeleteWelcome e5....So what does it mean?
Closed at the high of the day here.
Based on your age, its Mr. e5 sir, welcome to the asylum.
ReplyDelete50ish here.
Yeah I'm keeping my long PAL position overnite.
ReplyDeleteActaully I added to it b4 the close even.
Fuckem.
See you guys 2morrow.
Red wines been pouring, oh and I see it's 4:20:)
Mark nice work on KWK!
ReplyDeleteTelestar3d ,
ReplyDeleteyes, i knew it was the chess board lay out. but no time to goog e5-4 . i did play a bit till age of 14,then i loved playing hearts and some bridge.
the internet provides entry to a most amazing cultural experience.
e5
TOF, fundamental vs technical. I like Fib retracement levels and think they are worth while as are trendlines. BTW, over in Europe they are very big on Fibs retrace based on Elliot Wave spread by Prechter.
ReplyDeleteSometimes I mention to my friend (+ 60 years experience)some of your fundamental assessment and he just says "forget that shit" and starts talking support and resistance levels.
Different strokes for different folks. When the market tank a few years ago it was the fundamentalists that had some of the most atrocious returns.
FWIW, I think the value of your cash flow analysis is when they really drop the market and it can than give an edge for the long term picks if one really has the psychological make-up to hold long-term.
Mildly negative after-hours market response to earnings by IBM. IBM takes a hit, however.
ReplyDeleteWell, now it's more than mildly negative...
ReplyDeleteIBM is trading at 11 times earnings and TXN is trading at 11 times earnings with 10% of market cap in cash. Additionally, IBM missed revenues by $500 Million, all of which came from negative currency conversions and TXN boosted guidance above estimates.
ReplyDeleteI wonder when people will care about valuations.
Opened a small position in TZA @ 39.50 after hours...
ReplyDeleteJust tuned into CNBC and heard they are intervieweing someone about investor sentiment and came across this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cxoadvisory.com/sentiment-indicators/aggregate-investor-sentiment-and-stock-returns/
The buy limit order I placed for TWM at $22.55 was triggered right before the close, doubling my position, which is something I didn't want to do (I forgot to cancel that limit once my buy stop got filled at $22.72). While I was thinking what to do about it, I looked at the bid/ask after hours, saw the bid at $22.72, and I hit it without thinking. Some absentmindedness together with some major luck brought me an additional $150 today as a result of my TWM trading...
ReplyDeleteJust to clarify: I sold 1/2 of my "doubled" TWM position, since it was way too much for my taste, and now I am left with my original 1000 shares. If the market crashes tomorrow due to IBM results, I'll still be in good shape.
ReplyDeleteI should have waited a little longer before dumping my extra TWM shares after hours -- the bid is at $22.84 now.
ReplyDeletecheapy -- you are not alone in acting too early in your trades. Given your large position sizes, acting too early when taking profit is definitely a good thing. As for acting too early when buying something -- a possible improvement to your strategy is to wait for a clear pause in selling and preferably a breakout from the "congestion zone" that happens at the bottom before buying...
MarkW said...
ReplyDeleteT3D/e5- I don't play chess well, but guessed your comment referred to it.
Welcome e5....[ thank you mark]..So what does it mean?
e5 is a mnemonic! that mouthful is t/term for using alphabet letters as a memory devise. in my case the password to this blog.
2nd, you are a very patience giving and thoughtful man. thank you for allowing me to observe your behavioral goals translatort study of gaming at casino and gaming people at t/ stock mkt. it's somewhat mind bending.
and david, thank you as well, for melding current history w/other commentary to form a coherent mathematical basis to plan your bet and bet your plan.
e5
if the market is able to shrug off poor action in IBM and TXN (which I have no idea why it's lower given very cheap valuations and raised guidance above very recently raised guidance) and what will definitely be a bad housing number tomorrow, then I think a bottom is definitely in for the next month or two. I think tomorrow will be a very important day for bears and bulls. I'm expecting a gap down followed by buying to the break even level. Not sure what will happen after then.
ReplyDeleteSold the TZA @ 39.81. Not b/c I think the sell-off won't continue tomorrow, but b/c it's been prudent to take ultrashorts off the table at the end of each day. Position size was small, but enough to give me the 2-3 hundred a day I'm looking for.
ReplyDeleteGood job, 2nd_ave! I feel like I am entering the transition period from a swing trader to a day trader. As I am realizing it now, I don't have to spend the whole day glued to the screen -- I can choose to trade patterns on a short time scale and be done in a few minutes. There is more control this way over my potential losses, and so day trading is probably a safer strategy in this crazy market. It might even be a more profitable strategy, where the market is doing its best every day to shake people out of their multi-day positions.
ReplyDeleteSorry guys, but I'm going to be busy for an hour researching for the blog. SI swimsuit piece on CNBC.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteWelcome e5. 80 is an admirable age, commanding respect. Is it true no one over 81 can be trusted?
ReplyDeleteHa, ha, my little joke!
Please feel free to share your observations.