Monday, July 19, 2010

7/20/10 Tuesday Afternoon



Instead of calling for Black Tuesday, why not spin the Moody Blues and let the sell-off unfold on its own timetable? Maybe it unfolds more like TZA. As in Tues..zzzzzz...Aaaaaa!!!! (Credit to Mark for the appropriate expression.)

I don't think Tuesday afternoon ends well for the bulls, either in Asia or in the US.

151 comments:

  1. David- With the ultrashorts, it pays to wait. And wait. And wait. Then pounce. Exit shortly afterward.

    It's like scrambled eggs the way I make them. Whisk three eggs with 2 tbs of milk until foamy. Add oil + dab butter to pan, heat on high. Whisk the eggs some more. When the oil/butter starts to smoke, wait another 30 seconds. Whisk eggs one last time, and pour into pan. Quickly fold eggs 1-2x until slightly browned, but no longer than 20 seconds. Slide onto plate. Eat within 60 seconds.

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  2. You are right about waiting, 2nd_ave -- day trading setups keep coming during the day, and ideally we should skip all but the best one and trade only that one opportunity. So we should get used to skipping opportunities that are not absolutely outstanding, choosing, as a habit, at most 10% of those that seem plausible to us at first.

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  3. ES -0.50 now. Which is meaningless with respect to tomorrow's open. But for now, it provides a 'stamp of approval' for having closed my TZA when it was more like -5.50...

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  4. i've found that my returns are much much better on the long side. everyone's vested interests are in having things become better. its human nature to try to improve our lives. so going short is just a lot tougher. being able to miss big hits on the long side definitely helps but i've gotten great returns after big selloffs, when fear is high.

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  5. David- At the very least, I would avoid chasing. The only time it makes sense to 'chase' is when you see a big move coming, but notice it's not quite priced in yet. TZA after hours today @ 39.50 was a good example. IBM was selling off fast, yet the 'ask' on TZA was still sitting at a 'reasonable' price. Probably some poor guy too distracted watching the ticks in IBM to remember to remove his after-hours limit order on TZA...

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  6. tof- Agreed. My gains playing the short side have never come close to those playing the long side. One reason is I'm content to let my longs ride. Whereas I'm always looking over my shoulder for a short squeeze with the ultrashorts.

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  7. 2nd- I'm glad you closed the TZA no matter what happens. The sell off in SPY made no sense, and the ES wasn't leading the way down, and crude was firm.

    David- Scalping was what kept me in the game last year while trying to short the LT trend. I'd guess my success rate was 60-70% of the time using 10-15K as a position size. 2nd seems to have a knack at it, but it was a grind for me and stressful. I'm more comfortable now going long only with stocks that seem well valued with larger position sizes. I don't really care if they move against me in the short run, but I will take profits when presented. Hoping to re-load at a better price.

    I agree with everything TOF said above also.

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  8. this is a site i've have been following for a while. i like this guy's timing system that he set up. currently he's 100% in cash waiting for confirmation to get back in. i can't remember how i stumbled upon it...i think it was in seeking alpha maybe. he was pretty bullish early on in 2009 and he kinda kick started me up out of my negative bias in spring 2009 so i feel like i always need to check in with him.

    http://sensiblestocksblog.blogspot.com/

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  9. Welcome e5. 80 is an admirable age, commanding respect. Is it true no one over 81 can be trusted?

    Ha, ha, my little joke!

    Please feel free to share your observations.

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  10. cp- These days, it's anyone younger than 45 that I don't trust. I suppose it's a remnant of the 'Me' generation- we Boomers basically don't trust anyone outside of our generation- never have, never will.

    (Just kidding.)

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  11. GRMN looks pretty good about here, especially if the market continues to sell off. GRMN is the undisputed King of GPS, nobody comes close to the experience.

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  12. China is looking more and more like a buy.

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  13. China - Yep, I'm looking at XIN...

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  14. CP- Thing that bothers me about GRMN is GPS is part of most new electronics.

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  15. CP- Closing low of XIN for the past 180 days is 2.37. I'll watch it, thanks,

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  16. One CC worth paying attention too....Crude/Copper. Both firming up. :)

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  17. If tomorrow is green I think the bears have a big problem on their hands.

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  18. GRMN - Yes, GPS is available in most new electronics but nobody has the features and user interface GRMN offers.

    I'm just sayin' there's gonna be some good upside there once this market descent is complete.

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  19. XIN - Doesn't quite have the ROI that CADC does but it sure has been beat down over mostly what I'd call rumor.

    Anyway, keep an eye on China, I think their market's gonna lead ours from here on out.

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  20. Russell 2000 futures are +0.41% now! Man, am I glad that I got rid of my extra TWM shares after hours today (which I had picked up accidentally at $22.50 right before the close) at a decent profit! 2nd_ave is right -- it is best to take profit in the ultras as soon as it appears!

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  21. IMAX - Another tightly coiled spring. They're gonna save a ton of money with their new digital media distribution system, great for the bottom line.

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  22. i hope y'all are right. but, I have been watching lower highs and lower lows. I think we are in the bear trend. but, that is me

    brinker says we go up and up

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  23. Poncho and I took Louie Peep-Doodle-Duck for his evening grasshopper hunt this afternoon and a couple of times while pausing for a rest, Louie would rest his little head across my leg and cackle at me while I was sitting on the ground.

    This young duck really considers me his mother, poor little duck.... you should hear him cry when I leave him outside with the flock to go indoors.

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  24. Here is a very interesting article about investing in Chinese stocks, a must-read in my opinion:

    http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010/07/19/asia-s-paradigm-shift.aspx

    The point of the article is that the sectors that were leaders during the past decade (infrastructure, commodities, etc.) will not be the leaders going forward, and instead the local consumption stocks will be the leaders. The Chinese ETFs are still heavily skewed toward past leaders and so investing in Chinese ETFs may not be a wise thing to do now. Choose individual stocks in proper sectors instead.

    Check out, for example, HEGIF.PK -- the largest producer of sanitary napkins and baby diapers in China. That's a nice looking chart, isn't it? While the Shanghai composite fell 30% since its peak in August 2009, this stock grew 30% since August 2009! I'll probably buy some of it tomorrow...

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  25. On a second thought, I am placing a buy limit order for HEGIF at $7.50 for a 1/4 position.

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  26. SPY bidding down the equivalent of SPX -14 points.

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  27. I see a lot of positive 'headlines' together with negative 'reactions.'

    Could be a bad, bad day....

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  28. cp
    would love to see a video or picture of doodle duck! can you post?? (I've been looking at too many dead bird pictures again!)

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  29. Well, look. You can't go with Cheese Whiz. You need the real thing. O/w you end up in Oz.

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  30. The only positive I see this morning is the possibility that mortgage rates will tumble. Mark- If you haven't called yet, you should call him this morning.

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  31. vb- Is it raining money down there?

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  32. Prices in the ultrahorts are like jumping beans this morning. Traders appear to be clueless.

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  33. Plenty of sunshine in orlando, but I have been spending alot of time helping with the gulf coast crisis.. Happy duck pictures bring sunshine
    :)

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  34. Speaking of ultrahorts: Note how index bids are below yesterday's lows- yet bid/ask prices on the ultrashorts are nowhere near yesterday's highs...

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  35. FXP- opened a small position at 39.80...

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  36. is it too early (or dumb) to call a green close?

    by the way, David, I agree about the consumption stocks in China, whether they are discretionary or not. HEGIF looks awfully illiquid to me. I like SOKF a lot, although its not that much more liquid.

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  37. tof- Never too early, and never too dumb ;)

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  38. UNG off PM @ 7.65 for a 3.2% return. Today could be a very tough open and with the crude inventory report today, it seems prudent to take profits on a large position.

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  39. tof- So you're thinking we bounce off 1050?

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  40. Here is Smart trend this morning

    Simply stated, at the moment there appears to be no long stock investing haven worth a retreat by investors, and so the best bet is to look for shorting opportunities, including buying inverse ETF's, to profit from the further downtrend in stocks expected to reflect the economic malaise gripping the country.

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  41. 2nd - I'm reading through all of the earnings reports and most of them beat. Check this out:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay

    I'm still sticking by my belief that these down moves are just shaking longs out. But I'm close to capitulating because if we go below 1,045ish then people will panic. Personally I think valuations are too attractive for that level to fall and I think people will buy there.

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  42. Out of PAL very near me buy price.

    Sick of this shit.

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  43. whipsaw currents.

    TZA- I blindly opened an order at 'market,' which filled at 40.34...less than 60 seconds later, I saw a print of 40.5, blindly exited at 'market,' and it filled at 40.62...

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  44. Waiting for something more decisive. Taking the rest of the summer off.

    I will limit my commentary to beach volleyball tourneys and the occasional golf observation.

    btw fwif Bob Prechter is looking for Dow 1000:)

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  45. And I do not know if PAL will hold support at 3 or not. It would be a trading range right, 'cause there are no triple bottoms I have heard:)

    However I do not care. I need to keep me powder dry 'till I see the whites of their eyes:)

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  46. Interesting. In the stuff I follow I'm seeing some pretty strong buying. Trap?

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  47. Clearly the 2.90 area SEEMS to be defended by large bids (in PAL), however that has not prevented me from losing money.

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  48. Natty boys are mostly green.

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  49. ok. PAL seems to be feebly attempting to climb above it's 20 minute opening range. However, I need to see more than that obviously, although the fact that I wanted to throw in the towel earlier is indeed meaningful.

    Let us see.

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  50. Energy looking really good. Green on the day here.

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  51. mark - great observation. XLE looks very strong. shit so too do the home builders.

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  52. No idea what to do in PAL

    It looks good but the market doesn't.

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  53. C showing amazing strength.

    Yesterday was a great buying oppty.

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  54. HIG back on the watch list. FF, you still trading this one?

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  55. 2nd- I'm looking at 3m charts. Those bars on TZA are crazy.

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  56. MotherFUCKER

    I've become a frigging contrary indicator:)

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  57. So far I've left 5% on the table in KWK. Crap.

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  58. Since I want to buy PAL back it's probably a mistake...But since I feel it's probably a mistake it's probably not a mistake:)

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  59. Anyone know why steel stocks and their ilk are ripping?

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  60. T3D- UBS upgraded SCHN and had positive comments about the space.

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  61. AAARRRRRGH!

    this is so unsatisfying:)

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  62. HIG: Nope, not since May when it rolled over and the MA's crossed down.

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  63. shark - at least you're not long like me and waiting (hoping? praying?) that the markets rip higher.

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  64. too many dip buyers to call a bottom, IMO...

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  65. i'm just hoping that the market stays in the 1065-1080 level before thursday's unemployment claims, which i think will be better than expected and should provide a boost to the markets. if that happens and they are then i think the july jobs number will be quite good. we shall see. i think today is a very important day for bulls and bears.

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  66. Steel - My guess - Look at those P/E's!
    X reports 7/27 BMO
    PKX - Exceeded expectations
    FCX - Reports tomorrow BMO

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  67. Strange mkt, dollar strengthens and gold stocks catch a bid. Sometime I wonder if mkt inter-relationships mean anything in this day and age.

    If your are looking for free gold/oil charts/quotes go here:

    http://www.cx-portal.com/metal/gold_en.html

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  68. Oh yeah, GMO flirting with the 200, seems to be holding.

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  69. And of course GS is green even though their trading revenues were lacking. Who believes GS' trading revenues were lacking???? I don't.

    GS forward P/E: 7.48

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  70. here is a link to Liz Ann Sonders' latest take on the markets:

    http://event.on24.com/event/22/86/25/rt/1/documents/player_docanchr_1/lobby.html?eventid=228625&sessionid=1&key=D66EF0D1B602D4FB17BFDAF0777BDEAD&eventuserid=38723955

    I've always listened to what she has to say...keep in mind she's pretty positive on things (although she presents things with an open mind) but there is a lot of good data in her presentation.

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  71. 7.48 according to finviz, that is. I should specify... I doubt this is current(today's) data.

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  72. XHB- Traders seem to be correctly focusing on the new permit number.

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  73. ok. it's undoubtedly a mistake but I am back in pal in the high 3-oh's.

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  74. background to help trade better

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldF0nkbY8O4&feature=related

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  75. mark - its only at $72 and change...down a lot from the highs. this is a great franchise. i'm pissed every time i have to pay them for my business, but its part of my budget...take 3% off the top.

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  76. I think bears have to be scared at this point, no? We'll see how the market acts near break even. If I wasn't 100% long I would have loaded the boat on SSO at the open...that was an easy trade. The hard trade is what to do here. I say buy, but we still need jobs to confirm this.

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  77. TOF- I'm not afraid to buy it here. I'm just mad I lost track of it.

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  78. SWC - Sharkie - Does this chart look like it's broken out of the downtrend triangle and isn't this significant?

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  79. BC - Wonder if it's apt to rally into earnings on the 29th? Man, I hope they've done something to improve that EPS (-4.69) figure. Debt still looks pretty bad as well...

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  80. Closed the DGP trades for $7500 profit

    Would have done better, but a chart failed me by losing the indicator I was using to determine my sell point, and i didn't notice it was missing till it had fallen back below it

    Live and learn...

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  81. The intraday market trend seems to be up so far. I just sold my 1000 shares of TWM at $22.69 and placed a buy stop order at $22.75.

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  82. Save Thompson Divide!
    The 221,500 acres of Thompson Divide is located in the backcountry, west of the Crystal River and north of McClure Pass, and is in jeopardy of being impacted by the gas and oil industry. There are currently 81 oil and gas leases approved in this area and half are in roadless areas without surface stipulations. Development of these leases would have disastrous social, economic and environmental consequences for the area.


    The Thompson Divide Coalition was formed to pursue legislation to secure permanent protection from energy development for the federal lands in the Thompson Divide area. The Coalition consists of ranchers, farmers, hunters, fishermen, recreationalists, conservationists and community leaders who live, work and partake in a diverse range of recreational activites. "Value" of these leases by the oil and gas industry must be weighed against the "value" of the many other industries in Thompson Divide. Ranching, beef production, hiking, snowmobiling, hunting, biking, logging, watershed protection, air and noise quality, and the designated roadless areas must also be protected. The Coalition supports Legislation that this area is best served "as is" so that many interest groups can be supported and our economic interests protected.

    Please join with us in this effort. Click here to start.

    Ok check this out. The above legislation seems to have died and now the area is heating up methinks with specualtive frenzy.

    What I be wonderin' is, does Samson Oil and Gas have any projects in this area? Who eslse does?

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  83. Man, I got totally faked out by a quick spike up and down in TWM -- back in at $22.75...

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  84. OK, let's try it again: out of TWM at $22.735.

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  85. Check out this wackness,

    The story about the county not opposing the drilling in the rgion has a guy in the story named Mike Samson. The entire news chain is attribued as having relevance to Samson Oil and Gas but I've found no evidence of that yet, can anyone help?

    Where's CP?

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  86. is it too early to call the bear dead?

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  87. Placing a buy limit for TWM at $22.60, at the low of the day, which I think is bound to get violated.

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  88. Violated, but not SO much! Just bought more TWM at $22.55 and placed a sell limit for these shares at $22.60. Also, placed a sell limit at $22.65 for the shares I picked up at $22.60.

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  89. Bought even more TWM at $22.46, placing a sell limit order at $22.55. I have 2500 now and I am out of my buying power -- a risky move...

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  90. OK, sold 1/2 of my position at $22.45, just to reduce my risk...

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  91. Placing a sell stop at $22.40 for all but 500 shares...

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  92. OK, I am out of TWM at $22.40 and then 22.33 -- something wrong is happening today...

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  93. David - I think something RIGHT is happening today, but that depends on which side of the fence I'm on!

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  94. Overall, in total made new all time hight today, but because 3 of the accounts the DGP was bought to early/high, those 3 are below their record highs, and to be honest, I'm relieved that I was able to get out green, let alone with a good win, so I'm going to take the afternoon off and go work on the race car to get it ready for the weekend.

    good luck to all...

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  95. OK, I am back in with 1500 shares at $22.23 -- I just don't believe in a green close today.

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  96. Sold 500 shares at $22.28, now back to my original position of 1000 shares.

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  97. well done bob. i think this market get back up to the 1150 to 1,200 level. if you want less risk i would suggest just buying SPY and sitting and holding. the stop out point is 1,040ish so you wouldn't put a helluva lot at risk.

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  98. Well, at least UNG had a nice turn around together with the stock market. :)

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  99. OK, out of my TWM at $22.29. I have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, at least for today.

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  100. But then the bears are a tough crowd too. :) Back in at $22.38.

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  101. Rumor out there re FED cutting rates of 'interest on reserve'.

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  102. cheapybob did not said.
    i was a real tested winner today; i'll say it for you.
    are you a rambunctious racer as well. tell us more about giving up the rich man's thought of owning and using a polo pony, to be a commer on the track. glad to read you have time for fun
    e5

    BTW re comment, how do post w/o using anonymous

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  103. e5 -

    Under 'Comment as: Select Profile' select 'Name/URL' Fill in your name & continue

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  104. Out of TWM at $22.39 and placed a buy stop at $22.40.

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  105. The buy stop on TWM at $22.40 was triggered, then TWM immediately collapsed (which is the pattern today), but I decided to pick up 1000 more shares at $22.35 and placed a sell stop at $22.24.

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  106. The lesson I will learn today is NOT to buy into an ultrashort when the market is having a spike up. Instead, wait for a clear turn around in the market and only THEN jump into an ultrashort.

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  107. Moving my stop a little higher to $22.30...

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  108. Oh no -- someone saw my stop and rushed TWM toward it. I was barely able to move it down to $22.24 before it got triggered... Amazingly hard day for me today...

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  109. David - I think if the claims number on Thursday suprises again then it's best to short TWM. In our talk about the housing numbers, I came to a similar conclusion as you...that we're still 2 years away from a bottom in the housing starts. Well, actually we may be at bottom but we need another couple of years of this level to get through the inventory. But in looking at the prices of the market, we're still down about 33% from the highs. So maybe this is priced in? Maybe we just get a period like the late 1970s where we rise modestly based on earnings from industries other than the housing industry. The housing industry doesn't have as much of an impact on the markets as it did in 2007 because its much smaller. So negative numbers there just don't have as much of an impact. What do u think?

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  110. Stopped out of all my TWM at $22.23 today -- a total day trading disaster...

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  111. I guess the bulls got tired of dicking around and pulled out the forty-five...

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  112. What's the 'hard' trade here- to go all-in on the long side at the close, or to go all-in on the short side at the close?

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  113. Red....black....no, red....wait, black....

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  114. "Samson Oil & Gas Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company owns interests in various projects located in Wyoming, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Texas. Samson Oil & Gas Limited was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia."

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  115. OK, I figured I would do a day trade in the direction of the trend, for a change! Placed a buy limit order at $37.50 for 500 shares of TNA and 243 shares were just filled -- an odd amount...

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  116. David- I'm down -$655 today. Why?

    Stubbornly fighting the trend this morning throwing FAZ/FXP/TZA grenades.

    And I consider the loss a 'gift.' It could have been worse had I not retreated quickly after each trade. However, I could have retreated a lot faster ;)

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  117. OK, all 500 shares of TNA were filled at $37.50. Now preparing for the ultimate trick of fate -- a turn down in the market as soon as I switched my day trading direction to the bullish side...

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  118. I am far from convinced, however, that I should go all-in on the long side at the close.

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  119. Rather old and I've never heard of the Williston Herald but I have been hearing about tiny oil companies and big oil reserves in the Bakken reserve and read about how Three Forks is right there. I have no idea if these are rumors or truth:

    "Oil level doubles
    Governor announces 1.9 billion barrels in Three Forks

    By Nick Smith
    Staff Writer
    Published/Last Modified on Thursday, April 29, 2010 11:11 AM CDT

    The Three Forks Formation could yield nearly 2 billion barrels of petroleum, according to a geologic study released today by the North Dakota Geological Survey and Department of Mineral Resources.

    Results of the study essentially double the estimated recoverable amount of oil in the Bakken and Three Forks formations. Current estimates now put the amount of recoverable oil from the Bakken Formation at 2.1 billion barrels and the Three Forks Formation at 1.9 billion."

    http://www.willistonherald.com/articles/2010/04/29/news/doc4bd9ad47c99b3165700389.txt

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  120. Chicken you're an oil and gas expert, according to me:)

    Is Samson in the disputed are and if not, who is? Any public companies?

    I just love the idea of drilling in unspoiled forest......

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  121. Bought 100 more TNA at $37.40, placed a buy limit for 100 more at $37.30.

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  122. Is Samson a player in this thing or are the news stories which feature the quotes of someone named Mike Samson being incorrectly attributed to the Samson co?

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  123. On a second thought, I canceled the buy limit at $37.30 and instead placed a buy stop at $37.25 for all 600 shares.

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  124. Moving the stop up to $37.40. Now at least I won't lose much on this trade if the stop gets hit...

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  125. Moving the stop down below the congested area to $37.35.

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  126. e5,

    I race an old cheap v8 Pontiac on road racing tracks. Its a challenge and good fun as long as you can afford it. I have a rule that I don't race if I'm not well up for the year, and no dicey trades open. That kept me from racing for 3 yrs, but when you don't have any income other than from gambling, you need to have rules to prevent money that might be sorely needed from being frittered away on such lunacy as racing.

    Next year, if I move, I'll replace the race car with a (relatively) fast 30 to 36 ft sailboat, I hope. It should be a safer and less expensive. I'll probably end up single handing it, though, so no racing for me there. Its challenge enough just to get from point A to B on a sailboat, LOL.

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  127. Moving the stop up to $37.60, to make sure I exit at a profit.

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  128. Moving the stop up to $37.70...

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  129. Stopped out at $37.90 for a $250 profit on this TNA trade.

    Lesson number 2 for me today: try first trading IN THE DIRECTION of the daily trend.

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  130. NANO - Down again today! Keep a close eye on this one, it's very beat up due to a report they lost Intel business, earnings report is August 5th (potential rally into earnings?).

    If loss of Intel business to KLAC as rumored, that would not be good for this stock...

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  131. holy shit what a turnaround. i was saying last night that if we close green the bears are in a world of hurt but this is even better than i thought it could be. my STT is on a freaking roll today and so too is PIR. now if only RAS could follow suit. earnings are out on Friday AM. Mark - are you in it?

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  132. Three forks(under Bakken) - My first concern involves the quantity of estimated reserves, it seems quite small in comparison with the volume consumed in this country alone. Newer estimates place the reserves as 4.3Bbl, about a 7 month supply if I understand correctly.

    This subject has been tossed about for a couple of years and doesn't seem to have gone anywhere...

    Doesn't mean it can't happen but I think I smell a pump and dump on this one.

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  133. Well, given that TWM closed today at $21.75, my day trading (which ended with me exiting TWM at $22.24 and then making $250 on TNA, which basically compensated all the small stop losses I took on TWM before I exited it completely) did save me some money today. I am placing a buy stop limit on TWM for tomorrow at $22/$22.10.

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  134. Hey TOF- I'm here but pretending to work. I need to squeeze another 150K out of my clients in a meeting today. Yep. I'm still in RAS...

    Updated positions in case anyone cares.

    Full/PXP/+3.95%
    1/2/SGG/ +13.85%
    1/2/HEK/ -1.67%
    2/3/HUN/ +2.46%
    1/3/RAS/ -2.52%

    Sold KWK yesterday and UNG today.

    Still hold 1/2 SSO in the IRA, +1.12%

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  135. More on the Bakken:

    http://oilshalegas.com/bakkenshale.html

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  136. SSN - Okay, here's what I think is causing the move, this will load company coffers with cash with which to develop existing fields:

    "DENVER--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Samson Oil & Gas Limited (ASX: SSN - News) (NYSE AMEX: SSN) has entered into a binding agreement with a large U.S.-based independent natural gas and oil producer to sell 24,166 acres of its 40,240 acre holdings in Goshen County, Wyoming, for a cash purchase price presently expected to be between US$ 61 million and US$ 79 million (pre tax).

    The closing of the transaction, which is tentatively scheduled for July 26th, is conditional on the satisfactory conclusion of the buyer’s due diligence."

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  137. cheapybob said...

    e5,

    I race an old cheap v8 Pontiac on road racing tracks. sounds great, over time have you winnings > paid for fun?
    in re sailboat take a look @ freedom f21. comes shoal and draft can be trailered; some have tabenackle mast. fast,seaworthy, w/friendly class sailors. try to get a ride [crew] on any <
    25' keel boat, then a f21keel. you may become hooked for life.good boat w/used relatively new sails, OB and trailer for around 7k. look on utube. i think that's where i saw a solo idjit planing in 40 knot wind. $20 racing fee and w/ the right breeze you can come up to the edge of drowning or just, reefed down, going fast.
    quite different from road race or the mkt.
    i wish i was 24 again, i think f21 was built 1980's
    e5

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