Thursday, July 1, 2010
7/2/10 Cornflake Girl
Never was a cornflake girl
Thought that was a good solution
Hanging with the raisin girls
She's gone to the other side
Givin us a yo heave ho
Things are getting kind of gross
And I go at sleepy time
This is not really happening
You bet your life it is
I'll hang with the raisins any day. The Market spits out soggy cornflakes- make that flakes masquerading as traders.
Rabbit- where'd you put the keys.
I like this version more, but embedding was disabled:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-iLCwoJKac&feature=related
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I ----ing LOST $236 today trading the ultrashorts. Mainly due to opening positions a little late in the game.
ReplyDeleteNice call 2nd. I really like some of her stuff.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow's jobs report should provide more entertainment. I missed today's NGas inventory.
ReplyDeleteMark- The only no-cost 4.375% printed today was for a 15-year.
ReplyDelete2nd- I've done the math and I need to get 4.5% to make it worth while. Fingers crossed!
ReplyDeleteIs SGG going to finally break out here????
ReplyDeleteCADC - Chinese concrete construction company workin' on the railroad, they've been rackin' up the contracts.
ReplyDeleteforward PE 3.49
PEG 0.20
EPS 0.65
Debt 0.0
The best part is: China is growing....
Good news- one of my younger brothers (the one who resides in HK) was able to sell his home in Shanghai, at the price he wanted. What a relief. Watching the Shanghai index tank recently, I was concerned.
ReplyDelete2nd, we are in early stages talking about doing fly buys from shanghai. Just curious your thoughts on that -- ps hope you are cleaning up on the short side, you've been so quiet!
ReplyDeletevb
Toyota should contract with Boeing to make their valve springs.
ReplyDeletetof- I'm glad to hear it's only 10%. Can't say I share your (10%) conviction of a ST bottom here.
ReplyDeletevb-
ReplyDelete(a) I don't understand the terminology- how do you define a 'fly buy?'
(b) I'm not cleaning up in either direction- still in cash, and 'gambling' with a small stash occasionally for fun.
'Schwarzenegger orders min wage for state workers'
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Schwarzenegger-orders-min-apf-3783170024.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
'SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Thursday ordered about 200,000 state workers to be paid the federal minimum wage this month because the state Legislature has not passed a budget.
Department of Personnel Administration Director Debbie Endsley sent the order in a letter to the state controller, who refused a similar order two years ago and may try to do the same thing this time. Most state employees will be paid the federal minimum of $7.25 per hour for the July pay period.
Schwarzenegger spokesman Aaron McLear said the change should be reflected in state employees' next paycheck. Workers will be paid in full retroactively once a budget is passed.'
Can you imagine a state employee applying for a loan in late July, and having the broker ask for copies of his last 2 paystubs?
ReplyDeleteRisk is way too high right now. I just don't think it's the time to be holding any overnight positions.
ReplyDeleteWe have Black Friday on tap.
ReplyDeleteWatching the news...I want a "flying car". Soon to be available.
ReplyDelete2nd- 'Black Friday'...Really think so? I hope so, cause right now I'm thinking I missed some good short term entries. AONE/PXP/SD/GMO/BAC for example.
ReplyDeleteI know I post this all the time, but keep an eye on OIL. It was the only thing that kept me from jumping back in today.
ReplyDeleteThe sell off may take the form of a mirror image of last summer's rally. We kept shorting the rally, to no avail. This time it could be dip buyers who get slammed all the way down.
ReplyDeleteThe flying car....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/06/30/tech/main6634122.shtml
Has this guy gone 'out of business?'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sentimentrader.com/
Notice how J6P has remained on the sidelines. Once in awhile, the average Joe makes a good call.
ReplyDeletefly buy - I think that's someone flying into local airport to buy a property.
ReplyDeleteThink about it, if real estate prices are too high in China, why not go somewhere where prices have been beat down?
If that's the definition of a 'fly buy,' I wouldn't recommend Shanghai. My brother bought a little over 5 years ago, the price doubled, and he (just) sold. That's not the kind of market I would be looking at.
ReplyDeleteI'd venture to say state employees making minimum wage still have the best of benefits. Unemployed don't have income or benefits, they also pay no income tax.
ReplyDeleteSheesh, Chinese customers flying into Fl. airport to buy RE aren't going to get a deal?
ReplyDeleteTrue- if I were to become unemployed, I would jump at the chance for a minimum-wage state position. The health benefits alone would essentially double the nominal salary.
ReplyDeleteOh, I see. So she's referring to flying clients in from Shanghai.
ReplyDeleteI guess that's like saying 'Oh, I see. So 'shorting' a stock means selling it, not buying it?' ')
ReplyDeleteMark- I know what you mean by 'really think so?'
ReplyDeleteThere are in fact fine distinctions in my 'takes' on things. True 'hunches' come out of nowhere, and I'm usually 'afraid' to post them [widely] as I don't want to be embarrassed.
Then there are 'takes' that I think through, usually by trying to put myself into someone else's shoes. These seem to have a batting average of less than 0.500.
Black Friday is more of a 'take' than a 'hunch.' But it's more than the average 'take.' fwiw.
ReplyDeleteHK traders act like they have no idea (after a day off) which way the wind's blowing.
ReplyDelete2nd
ReplyDelete"fly buy" Usually leads are gathered via international trade show held in region. Serious buyers are offered a fly buy package to view the real estate in another country.
alot of chatter now about shanghai and florida. There may be speculative opportunities for foreign investors to gobble real estate in the USA during the depression.
vb- So I think it's a good idea. Funny thing about the Chinese- your company would do well to hire Chinese-speaking professionals (if they aren't already on board), not just to ensure good communication, but also to ensure the kind of 'bonding' needed to close sales.
ReplyDelete2nd, I thought you would never ask
ReplyDelete:)
Believe me, I'm the last person they would bond with. I have a flawless accent (thanks to my Mom, who is from Beijing), but after 5 minutes of conversation they'll realize that my vocabulary is quite limited.
ReplyDeleteForeigners buying up US real estate? Didn't the Japanese try that in the 80's. Pebble Beach etc.?
ReplyDelete2nd- Most times we are on the same page. Overall sentiment just seems way to bearish to me. I hope your right...thus my comment, perhaps one more shake out. Again thought, I did see panic prices in some stocks I follow.
2nd, well think about it.
ReplyDeleteHowever, for the right amount of money, I could broaden my vocabulary in a hurry ;)
ReplyDeleteNANO - Had a nice day today, wonder if it's gonna last?
ReplyDeleteOK, crude opened the afternoon trading down another .60. Now it's up .53... Looks like either Europe or the jobs report is going to have to turn this around.
ReplyDeleteMark- I don't think it's bearish enough. We've seen a few intraday 'panics' that seem to fade quickly. We need a prolonged multi-day wave of nausea that clears the deck of bullish sentiment. Sort of like the endless roasting of bears on a spit that Vad enjoyed bringing up last summer.
ReplyDeleteFrom my experience dealing with Chinese, they don't like haggling on price, want to feel like they're getting a deal and won't increase their bids.
ReplyDeletevb- I would expect a flood of buying once the yuan really begins to appreciate against the USD.
ReplyDeleteSee y'all on the other side of dawn...
ReplyDelete2nd- I hope you see this in the morning. I was talking with MOG a while ago about the crash last year and all it entailed. He was actually very worried. Not about his Co's viability, but about the basic function of the financial system. They had hundred's of millions in cash that needed some place to go, and were afraid to put it anywhere
ReplyDeletefor even 30 days. One of his Co.'s even hired a security firm to hold cash at a net loss for a 20 day period. I'm sure others would disagree, but for the short run, I'm confident those times are over for now. Bear markets are fast and painful. I'm not sure the grind down is in the cards.
I'm really going to stick my neck across the chopping block here, but how much longer are we going to extend unemployment benefits. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 years?
ReplyDeleteLooks like Mrs. Woods is getting 750M for staying quite.
ReplyDeleteAm I moving into the 'rip of the band-aid' group? Seems like it.
ReplyDeleteRip of the band-aid? Well, that's the message the market's sending right now, and so are the two top manufacturing economies of the world (Germany and China).
ReplyDeleteThey resent the massive debt so many other countries are carrying and it appears they're willing to allow deflation to run it's course.
I think if it happens, there will be massive unemployment and depressionary recession.
Tough love maybe?
I just noticed that the Fed has once again decreased the AMB over the past 2 weeks. The Fed doesn't want this market to go up. DON'T FIGHT THE FED!
ReplyDeleteI also spoke to my father today, who is trading the market rather successfully over the past couple of years based on his assumption that the market is being manipulated by the politicians in power to achieve the things they want to achieve. For example, he warned me in mid-April that the only reason the market was bid up over the past few months was to show that the economy is doing well and the extra spending on the health care bill will be paid off soon. Once the reform has passed, there was no reason anymore to hold the market up, and he said that it will go down big time very soon. He turned out to be right.
Today, he said that the Obama people were not able to convince the other countries at the G20 meeting last weekend to keep the government spending going at a high rate, and so now the Obama people will want to crash the markets to "show" the other countries what can happen without the government spending. Of course eventually the other countries will cave in, will throw more money at the market and we'll get a temporary monster rally, but that will happen only after we get a nice crash. Let's see if my dad will be right once again.
So, putting all this together, if we get an up day on Friday, I'll reload the TWM shares I sold today, without waiting for a bigger rally to take place. Ideally, I would like to see the market rally back to the 1040 support level tomorrow, which will be a nice place to reload my ultrashorts.
Tori Amos is interesting, but she's whacked:)
ReplyDeleteDuring the estrogen revolution of the early 90's almost any female who played anything and sang her own songs got a record deal. Starting it all off in the mid 80's was Tracy Chapman, who genuinely was a songwriting genius. "Fast Car" is a brilliantly good song. I love her first record.
Soon therafter though, things got a little more dicey. Indigo Girls were very strident and less arty in a good way. "Closer to Fine" is an excellent song, but you try singing it.
Paula Cole= Damned unlistenable by anybody's standards.
Jewel= Sarah Palin on dope.
Mary Lou Lord= a joke.
Then, one day, suddenly, contracts were abrogated or drawered, the estrogen revolution folded up it's tent and went home.
BTW for the record I prefer all of the abovementioned to either John Mayer (yuck)
or Dave Matthews (double yuck).
It's been a quarter century since they recorded anything decent other than Nirvana's first album, and that was almost 20 years ago.
Popular music experienced a metamorphisis which I call cultural devolution...It started out perfect basically, with the Beatles and the Stones, and basically began to suck more and more with each passing generation of copycats.
Interesting take, shark.
ReplyDeleteAnd an interesting take from Bill on the (unexpected) collapse in gold/silver prices yesterday:
ReplyDelete"In my book, when conventional analysis does not work, I step back and not make any decision. It’s the same as a race car driver running off the track, out of control, taking his/her hands off the wheel and letting the crash into a wall happen. That way, at least the arms are protected.
Two days ago, while anticipating an attempt by the Interventionists to stem the tide of falling equity prices, I focused on the Euro, believing there would have to be a bounce off the 1.22 up to 1.24-1.25, pushing the USD from the 86.50 to about 85. In combination, I projected a sizeable upward move in precious metals futures and in the goldminer indexes. What occurred was that, in fact, the forex move was right on-time, and even a tad more extreme than I had figured, but my Gold and Silver related trading decisions were dead wrong. There was a repeat of that 'head on a platter' scenario.
But, I decided to take my hands off the wheel until I could calmly decide what really had happened. This morning, despite a modestly weaker Euro and stronger Dollar, the Gold and Silver have recovered a bit. Traders are awaiting the US Jobs Report at 8:30am ET. As this result, or at least the spin, will immediately impact Europe, the small American investors will be, for the most part, locked out of the action until 9:30am ET, which is patently unfair."
Initial reaction to jobs is modestly negative.
ReplyDeleteNow mildly positive.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market ended off its worst levels but still ended in the minus column nonetheless. This action keeps it at new lows for the year.
Obviously, the trend remains down.
The problem is, it's a darned if you do and darned if you don't oversold environment. If you try to short it, it'll bounce. If you try to buy it, oversold will become even more oversold.
Considering the above, I think the best new action for now is no new action. If the slide continues, use it as an opportunity to trail and scale on existing shorts.
Futures are all over the place pre-market. So, it could be a little bumpy out there today.
Questions? Comments? Shoot me an email at dave@davelandry.com or call me at (1) 985-898-4993.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Shark- It's interesting you don't like Dave Matthews also. Just don't get his appeal.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the market correctly discounted the jobs report. As always, I've got oil front ans center.
What appeal?
ReplyDeleteIt's gonna be a big up-day.
Man, there is NO volume in anything I trade.
ReplyDeleteEuro ripping
ReplyDeleteDollar dropping
Green close.
vb- I would expect a flood of buying once the yuan really begins to appreciate against the USD.
ReplyDelete2nd,
Yes, that is what I am thinking too.
Okay, out of spxu
be back for happy hour and hope it will be happy!
Kinda hard to tell with volume so thin, but looking at the order flow, I'm seeing some selling pressure here.
ReplyDeleteTried to short TSLA 2 days ago, but no shares were available. Too bad.
ReplyDeleteCP- Seeing if I can get a little CADC @ 3.18.
ReplyDeleteBAC back under 14 smackers.
ReplyDeleteMaybe BP will succeed in stopping the gulf oil leak this weekend?
ReplyDeleteDeath cross in a couple more sessions, everyone knows...
GS/RIMM/BAC/AAPL/AMZN/BP all red. Not going to happen today.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Yep, it trades pretty thin.
ReplyDeleteHo-hum market day so far, jobs report not inspiring...
Another day to sell the pop and watch the slide continue...
CADC - The bottom trendline is about a nickel or dime under $3, will it go there?
ReplyDeleteCADC- Did the homework on it last night. Pretty small Co., but if the financials are legit, it looks like a winner.
ReplyDeleteIf we lose XLE...watch out.
ReplyDeleteThe financials are legit. It's the real deal, gonna be a winner.
ReplyDeleteLater guys. This is worse than actually working. To the BAR!!!
ReplyDeleteI don't see any reason to be bullish right now.
ReplyDeletevb- Here's my idea.
ReplyDeleteMost Chinese interested in US real estate will have either relatives or acquaintances in the SF Bay Area. They should fly out to SFO, where you and I can:
(a) establish a presence for your company here
(b) meet with prospective buyers to assess interest
(c) network with the Chinese community here
Once we establish real intent, your company can fly them out to Florida.
Former Swedish model, Elin Nordegren, just won the lotto of divorce settlements and Tiger Woods is footing the bill. Unfortunately, you won't read about her version of the Tiger Woods story in the paper, or hear Howard Stern riff on it on Sirius radio, or see her crying her head off next to Oprah. Not at all. Tiger Woods paid near $750 Million to keep her mouth shut. According to information from entertainment tabloids, Elin Nordegren isn't allowed to say a word about the divorce, about Tiger Woods' cheating habits or anything that transpired between the two during their marriage or she forfeits a fortune.
ReplyDeleteDo you realize Jack Nicklaus, who won more majors than Tiger, made a grand total of $8,755,407 playing golf?
Elin's getting 85 TIMES Jack's total winnings.
More than one way to skin a cat eh?
That'll buy a few cornflakes!
ReplyDeleteIt's funny, PAL doing a healthy business despite the selloff.
ReplyDeleteYou'd have to be a madman to be long, which is why it's working.
Okay, I'm a fricking expert about this.
ReplyDeleteTiger Wood's story is NOT about cheating on his wife. Okay?
You don't go to rehab for cheating. (well, most people don't, there IS sex addiction).
NO! Tiger Woods story was the DRUGS story.
I'm telling you now, Tiger was addicted to pain killers.
You don't hold up for three days and not talk to police or avoid a UA for sex addiction. It takes two days for opiates to leave your system to pass a UA and that was how long his lawyers were able to keep him away from the cops.
You don't crash into fire hydrants on sex or running from your hot model wife, even if she has a golf club....especially when you are driving a fricking Escalade. DRUGS make you crash into stuff. BELIEVE ME, this story had opiates written all over it.
THAT my friends, would ruin little Tiger's reputation more than cheating with a million drugged out sluts. Did you see some of these women? It's a no brainer.
We haven't seen a Tiger misbehave this badly since the one who ate Roy.
ReplyDeleteIf BP were using coagulant instead of dispersant, supertankers would be better able to collect oil from the spill.
Ah- Black Friday underway ;)
ReplyDeleteBack in and out again. Legit Stinky's on GMO/AONE/HEK. CADC filled @ 3.18. Wish I was here. Could have gotten a little better price.
ReplyDeletePeace Out....
UNG -- wow, what a wicked commodity! I was sure yesterday that it was set to keep going up, or at least that the drop under $8 was history. Everyone else who jumped in yesterday after the $8 resistance was broken decisively to the upside is getting shaken out today...
ReplyDeleteI see that the constant drop in BP stock has abated. I figured that despite all the talk about "much more" oil leaking than we can measure, BP's liability will be calculated only based on the *measured* amount of oil leaked, and so it's liability will not be that much. I just bought 1 BP October $31 call for $3.40. I've done will with BP puts on the way down -- let's see if I also get lucky with BP calls on the way up. :)
ReplyDeleteIn case you guys haven't noticed, the WLI growth index came in at -7.7% today. This weekend, EVERYONE will be saying that it NEVER dropped so low without a recession following soon, and then EVERYONE will be saying that in a recession the stock market drops at least 40%. And you know what? They'll be right!
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, all the weak hands (who are really concerned about the second recession) should be shaken out of the market today, and if the market doesn't rally today, it will have a large chance of rallying on Tuesday, unless something really bad happens in Europe over the long weekend.
ReplyDeleteIf the market does not rise next week and instead S&P drops in a straight line to 950, then I'll close more of my ultrashorts as the chance of a multi-day rebound will be high at that point.
ReplyDeleteThere is always the chance that the rescue well fails and that really F with the market.
ReplyDeleteNotice that all the silver miners had a bad day yesterday and many are still down today (e.g., SLW). ECU silver, on the other hand, is down only 1 penny between Wednesday and today. That's what I mean when I say a lot of buying interest is present in that stock and a big accumulation is now happening.
ReplyDeleteOn vacation this week, but played TBT for $1690 profits this am. I suppose things could collapse more from here pretty easily, but took a chance on a bit of a bounce in rates and won.
ReplyDeleteIf anyone knows where the mkt is going, please feel free to let me know...
cheapy- Hope that offsets the cost of your vacation. Are you traveling?
ReplyDeleteMaybe UNG closes above $8 today? That would be nice... :)
ReplyDeleteWell, at this point I would have to agree with shark on a green close. Barely green, however. By less than 10 points on the DJIA.
ReplyDeleteI would still hesitate to hold anything into the long weekend. Anything can happen the next few days, while our hands are tied...
Taking a flyer on SLW @ 18.55.
ReplyDeleteYes, about 1200 mi each way. And yes, I'd bet the trip is paid for by a factor of 2 or 3x by that win. All accounts at records, so I'm happy there.
ReplyDeleteGas for 1st half was only $75, no hotel needed, and just buying booze (buying different good stuff) and food for everyone (prob 1+ restaurant meal a day), so about $500 or $600 will cover everything, I think.
Live cheap or die, LOL.
A mildly green close sounds good to me. :) I just bought 200 shares of TNA for a day trade at $34.75.
ReplyDeleteTaking off 1/2 of my TNA position at $35.25, placing a sell limit order for the other 1/2 at $35.75.
ReplyDeleteDamn! I entered the wrong price and placed a sell limit at $34.75 instead of $35.75! The order got immediately executed at $35.19. That's it for me, then. A $90 profit in 10 minutes should cover a nice dinner tonight. :) I used a very small position size as I still don't have enough confidence in my day trading skills, but next time I'll use a larger position size.
ReplyDeleteSLW- off @ 18.76.
ReplyDeleteGreen close.
ReplyDeleteI have a half-position of PAL going into the long weekend.
Happy Fourth of July!
Yes, red wine will be poured!
A quote from David Rosenberg today:
ReplyDelete"What was particularly disconcerting in the payroll data was the sharp slowing in factory payrolls — from 38,000 in April, to 32,000 in May, to 9,000 in June in what was the low water-mark for the year. Not only that, but in line with the soft ISM reading, the diffusion index for hiring in the manufacturing sector sank to 52.4% from 62.2% in May, the most pronounced decline since June 2008 when the recession was in full swing.
We say this is disconcerting because it was the manufacturing sector that carried the ball for this nascent recovery and it increasingly looks as though the inventory cycle is in the process of being truncated. Who is left to pick up the baton? Nobody we can think of. Retailers are certainly not looking at a bullish consumer outlook or they wouldn’t have cut their workforce by 7,000 in June after an 11,000 slice in May. If banks were looking at stronger loan demand, they too likely would not have slashed 15,000 from their payrolls after cutting 12,000 in May. Construction firms shed 22,000 after a 30,000 slice in May — no surprise here. This begs the question that without hiring out of the banks, the retailers, the builders and now the manufacturers, it stands to reason that we are in for a prolonged period of labour market malaise. Let’s not confuse pessimism for realism."
PXP @ 20.43..
ReplyDeleteAnother quote:
ReplyDelete"The government has frittered away valuable taxpayer resources on short-term quick fixes to fuel spending and confidence from cash-for-clunkers, to cash-for-appliances, to homebuyer tax credits, to continued extensions in jobless claims that would make Newfoundlanders blush."
That's a good point, actually. Given the way the auto sales and the home sales collapsed after the credits have expired, who cares now for what happened in the past? The government could have done better by building out the US infrastructure, which would have had some real lasting impact.
Wow! Did I exit my TNA on time or what? :) Good timing, 2nd_ave, on your SLW exit as well! Just like you were saying during the rally time that a small profit on the short side should be booked immediately, I guess the same thing is true today on the long side: a small profit should be booked immediately!
ReplyDeleteSurprising close. I don't think it bodes well for next week. But then, we'll probably be surprised again.
ReplyDeleteNice timing indeed, David!
ReplyDeleteWell, my timing was just an accident (a wrong entry price), while your exit was actually planned. :)
ReplyDeleteI did, however, learn to use the rule of "not letting a profit turn into a loss," so I would have placed a sell stop limit at $34.75 for the remaining half of my position, and so I would have still walked out with a profit on the first half.
see? it's guys like you driving the market down 50 points at the close selling good stocks.
ReplyDeletebut you'll be buying next week:)
happy 4th
Shark, I didn't sell good stocks, I sold TNA. :) If I'll be buying anything next week, it will only be TWM in the event of a market rally. We ARE going into a recession, and all medium-term trades should be on the short side now.
ReplyDeleteJust returned from trying to beat the crowd shopping. Just barely did, they started showing up.
ReplyDeleteDid I miss anything?
Looking about the various charts, I see I didn't miss much. Interesting close, some folks don't wanna think about stocks over the weekend apparently.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend, may the 4th be with you!
There goes David again, throwing away perfectly good stock....
ReplyDeleteAnd Mark complaining about CADC closing only 2 cents in the green from his entry.
David,
ReplyDeleteWe're not going into a recession, we are IN a depression.
On that happy note, have a really awesome weekend:)
new post
ReplyDelete