Saturday, July 24, 2010

7/24/10 Come Saturday Morning



Feels like one of those mellow college weekend mornings.

Thanks for the comment cleaner, Mark. A palate cleanser that clears the way for the stark statistics below, excerpted from the following article:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/the-u.s.-middle-class-is-being-wiped-out-here%27s-the-stats-to-prove-it-520657.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,MCD,WMT,XRT,DIA

• 83 percent of all U.S. stocks are in the hands of 1 percent of the people.
• 61 percent of Americans "always or usually" live paycheck to paycheck, which was up from 49 percent in 2008 and 43 percent in 2007.
• 66 percent of the income growth between 2001 and 2007 went to the top 1% of all Americans.
• 36 percent of Americans say that they don't contribute anything to retirement savings.
• A staggering 43 percent of Americans have less than $10,000 saved up for retirement.
• 24 percent of American workers say that they have postponed their planned retirement age in the past year.
• Over 1.4 million Americans filed for personal bankruptcy in 2009, which represented a 32 percent increase over 2008.
• Only the top 5 percent of U.S. households have earned enough additional income to match the rise in housing costs since 1975.
• For the first time in U.S. history, banks own a greater share of residential housing net worth in the United States than all individual Americans put together.
• In 1950, the ratio of the average executive's paycheck to the average worker's paycheck was about 30 to 1. Since the year 2000, that ratio has exploded to between 300 to 500 to one.
• As of 2007, the bottom 80 percent of American households held about 7% of the liquid financial assets.
• The bottom 50 percent of income earners in the United States now collectively own less than 1 percent of the nation’s wealth.
• Average Wall Street bonuses for 2009 were up 17 percent when compared with 2008.
• In the United States, the average federal worker now earns 60% MORE than the average worker in the private sector.
• The top 1 percent of U.S. households own nearly twice as much of America's corporate wealth as they did just 15 years ago.
• In America today, the average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks.
• More than 40 percent of Americans who actually are employed are now working in service jobs, which are often very low paying.
• or the first time in U.S. history, more than 40 million Americans are on food stamps, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that number will go up to 43 million Americans in 2011.
• This is what American workers now must compete against: in China a garment worker makes approximately 86 cents an hour and in Cambodia a garment worker makes approximately 22 cents an hour.
• Approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010 - the highest rate in 20 years.
• Despite the financial crisis, the number of millionaires in the United States rose a whopping 16 percent to 7.8 million in 2009.
• The top 10 percent of Americans now earn around 50 percent of our national income.


Time heals most of our portfolio 'wounds.' It will take more than time for America to reverse those alarming trends. Look at what you have right now, and in the light of the numbers above, it may not seem so bad.

So I'm a little bummed out over a losing week in the markets? Account balances sitting -0.7% below the YTD high casting a shadow in the recesses of my mind? Do you think the average American gives a shit? They're more concerned about putting food on the table and paying medical bills. A few below the poverty line might just as soon kick my ass and politely ask me to take those account balances down further. (That Rizzo guy needs to get the hell out of Bell.)

Capital preservation is still top priority. When playing against Wall Street, you and I are in the bottom 5%. We're the guys in the dark alley trying to make a few bucks off the bankers.

104 comments:

  1. Pretty scary stuff. What scares me the most is...

    " In the United States, the average federal worker now earns 60% MORE than the average worker in the private sector."

    ReplyDelete
  2. Serious comment...

    I wonder if there is something medically wrong with Nancey Pelosi?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Interesting stuff from TK this morning-

    http://slopeofhope.com/2010/07/frequency-and-drawdowns.html#disqus_thread

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mark-

    (a) Yeah, what happened to government workers accepting LOWER pay than private sector workers in exchange for better job security? Now they end up with better pay as well?

    (b) What led to the question about Pelosi?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Mark - Good Question...FWIW, it's like she's in an 'alternate' reality. Though that could probably be said for many in the government...

    ReplyDelete
  6. 2nd:

    A) You'll probably remember my dad was the City manager of the town I grew up in. It was a trade off then. Probably 60% the other way. Why? As we both know, early retirement and a great pension.

    B) I seen her for years. Now she looks real shaky, can seem to put a coherent sentence together, and most importantly to me has that look in here eye's that tell me something's missing there.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Damn...re-reading that comment maybe I should get checked out :)!!

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'm tellin' you guys, the Botox injections have soaked into her brain.

    ReplyDelete
  9. From CC, check this out for perspective.

    http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html

    ReplyDelete
  10. All right guys...Time to get back to work.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I know we all look at SPX, but damn, QQQQ/IWM sliced right through the 200.

    ReplyDelete
  12. CP- Is this you? :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhlWddAXSRA

    ReplyDelete
  13. Mark - It might be, I can't watch most of those Youtube video's cause there's no bandwidth out here. I was hoping Obama would make good on his promise but we all know how that goes, FTWR can help explain?

    ReplyDelete
  14. A week off from the market is a pause that truly refreshes.

    Gold is a hot area that can make or break you. Since the beginning of the year, I have felt that $1200 was a sweet spot to trade around. This week I sense we have the bears turning over the market to the bulls. So now I think we have a possible buy for the Canadian bullish ETF for stocks: HGU.to. For example, I have a buy signal on K.to (Kinross), MAI.to Minera Andes (McEwen jockey), NGD.to (no signal) (CC mention) but alludes to a buy, NOT.v (CC mention) Noront is not a gold stock, but for a mining exploration stock I have a buy, PNP.to has also given a buy. It is like being in the candy store, so many tempting sweets. Let's hope buying them does not make us sick.

    So I plan to scale in to a swing trade this week (HNU.to). HNU.to is off the watch for now. Also adding to my ECU.to position. Did not have my eyes on PAL last week and missed an opportunity to initiate a small position at $3.20cdn (support/resistance?).

    Short-term I am still bullish and long in my portfolio. Last week my portfolios bumped upwards on auto-pilot, which is good as I expected the market to be negative for me, but I am below my all-time highs (2010). I would have done better if I was 100% in the market rather than 50%, even if I just held the TSX index 1x or 2x bullish ETFs.

    ReplyDelete
  15. So I plan to scale in to a swing trade this week (HNU.to). s/b HGU.to

    ReplyDelete
  16. Speaking of FTWR, short float looks high.

    ReplyDelete
  17. 2nd: those stats above in your opening post are enough to make me so angry on the state of affairs for the general working stiff and our childrens' future.

    ReplyDelete
  18. CI- Are you working now? Just curious if you have a take on an industry in Canada.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Mark: Right now I am updating and reviewing my charts. Is your question about stock sectors? As you know, Canada is a resource country, so I am primarily studying those sectors. If you are talking 'industry' than RIM.to/RIMM is one I like, but I am not sure of your question.

    ReplyDelete
  20. CI- Sorry, I meant are you still working to either earn a pay check or run a business. As I'm sure you know, I own a high end construction company and give a lot of weight to what I hear from my clients.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Mark: Last year I gave my notice to my employer that I was retiring. Of course they thought I was nuts. One person said I was too young to retire. Now I basically consider myself self-employed trading the stock market. Not as a day trader like Vad, but earning income from dividends and doing swing trades. So far I find that it is much easier now that I can concentrate full time on stock charts and developing my indicators. I am also looking at writing stock options to increase my income.

    I have done quite well since I decided to have a go at it. So far so good. I am now making good coin to not ever have to go back to working. No boss, no employees, no worry about collecting from my clients. For me a dream come true.

    ReplyDelete
  22. CI - excellent work. congrats!

    ReplyDelete
  23. Mark: PS: If I had to do it all over again, I would want to come back as a real estate developer. Building homes and running it as a business is the number one source of creating wealth here in Canada.

    The worst thing I did when I was younger was listen to people involved in the investing industry. Maybe if I was a stock broker, I would have done well, but I think the stock market has been a losing game the last twenty years. I wish I had avoided it and invested in housing.

    ReplyDelete
  24. this is setting up for another rally like the feb-april rally...i think.

    ReplyDelete
  25. I was debating all weekend whether or not I should place a tight buy stop order for 1000 shares of TWM I sold on Friday, and decided that I SHOULD place an order, but for 500 shares, which I did at $20/20.10. I also placed a buy limit order for 100 shares at $19.50 and at $19.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Latest from Hussman:

    "As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks was characterized by unfavorable valuations, mixed market action, and clearly negative economic pressures. Historically, the average return to risk profile associated with this combination of factors has been negative - largely because of the pointed risk to stocks when economic indications have deteriorated similarly. For our part, we are neutral but in an interesting way - the Strategic Growth Fund continues to be fully hedged, but the Fund also has about 1% of assets invested in index call options, which would soften the effect of our hedging in the event we observe short-covering pressures above the 1100 level on the S&P 500. So while the overall weight of the evidence is negative here, we have to allow for the possibility that technical factors may drive market fluctuations over the shorter term, and could result in a significant (though probably short-lived) short squeeze on relatively illiquid volume."

    I hope we do have a large short squeeze now, since it will give me a great opportunity to pile into shorts. I have survived the short squeeze that lasted 3 months from February till April (which took the market *significantly* above the previous highs) without having the declining ECRI WLI index to back up my conviction. With that index dropping like a stone now and already at recession levels, I'll survive any short squeeze at this point (as long as the WLI growth index stays below -10%). I just hope the market won't gap down on Monday and drop, unimpeded to 900 on S&P, as it will force me to chase the southbound train. I would rather pile into my shorts gradually on the way north.

    ReplyDelete
  27. More from Hussman:

    "If the current recession concerns are meaningful, we would expect to observe a sharp spike in weekly claims for unemployment well above 500,000 in the near future. The early signs of deterioration may emerge rather quickly."

    Finally I have a way of checking progress along Hussman's roadmap. The jump in unemployment claims last week might have been the start of Hussman is writing about. If the claims keep creeping up higher over the following weeks, then I'll become much more aggressive on the short side regardless of the stock market action at that point.

    ReplyDelete
  28. One might've thought if Congress were interested in maintaining a tax base they wouldn't have been so busy enacting legislation intended for sending middle-class jobs overseas.

    ReplyDelete
  29. David,
    What do you think about gold/miners at this point? I am thinking it might be a good time to reload. Are you still in uxg?

    ReplyDelete
  30. Long PAL 3.33

    not a daytrade, a hold.

    ReplyDelete
  31. CI- Congrats!! That's great my friend.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Looks like the battle for the 200 might take place today.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Good morning! Had a full plate this weekend, which I figured entitled me to ignore all of you.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Another Monday. I'm looking at the DJIA, and it's WTF.

    It's gotten to the point where we could pass each other in the hall and say, 'Morning, shark. WTF.' 'Hey, 2nd. WTF.'

    It's the new 'norm.'

    ReplyDelete
  35. I don't even want to check in at SOH.

    ReplyDelete
  36. I was kind of joking about a 29-handle on TZA, and we came within 0.36 of hitting it.

    ReplyDelete
  37. I actually put a stop on HUN thus time. Looks like I made it too tight.

    ReplyDelete
  38. SWN/CHK/XCO/DVN are having a hard time getting of the floor.

    ReplyDelete
  39. TOF- Are you still constructive on RAS?

    ReplyDelete
  40. 2nd wave of selling in the T's.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Mark: Thanks for the congrats. I spent much too long working numbers and reports at my government job. Don't regret the job, but I think the congrats go to you for being self-employed in the building business. Your business card is the houses you have built.

    I have to give some credit to Bill C as he convinced me in the old blog to get into cash just before the fall. More credit to the posters on the old blog who gave a lot of insight to the market (I really miss some of the bright lights that stopped commenting on that old blog). Going from a hobby to a business mindset in stock trading/investing has been the best thing that happened to me in the last 5 years.

    But even with all that, I have not clue where the market will be this afternoon or tomorrow etc. I am just going with the odds when I see something bullish or bearish. And if I am wrong I am wrong. That is the hard part.

    And congrats to everyone here. I can see that everyone is becoming more expert at winning in this market against the odds. I love the ideas that are thrown out here for everyone to examine.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Sold 1/3 of my remaining PIR position at $7.5...now holding about 45% of original position.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Mark - I'm still very bullish on RAS...but there is a caveat. The jobs market needs to show 100+k jobs pronto. I think it will happen. Short term the action since earnings has been horrible, which is concerning, but if you take a step back and look at the longer term charts, Stock Price > 50 DMA > 200 DMA which is a bullish setup. I take Friday and today as a shakeout, similar to 2 fridays ago for the overall market.

    ReplyDelete
  44. It's funny how the memo I got early last week WAS correct, but that you had to wait for the Freaking Beard to finish expurgiating prior to going long.

    ReplyDelete
  45. General MOLY doing nicely...Chicken where are ya?

    ReplyDelete
  46. If you're looking for something to load up on, take a look at the CPSL chart...

    ReplyDelete
  47. Sharkie - I hope you've offered to reciprocate on that memo in some way...

    ReplyDelete
  48. I think CADC's gonna make me a happy camper...

    ReplyDelete
  49. In and out of /gc gold contracts twice for 1800 profit (out again now), and in and out of DGP etf in my IRA for another 1470 net profits.

    All flat now except a smallish RBY position, still.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Gold - Is fear subsiding? This month hasn't exactly been a barn-burner there...

    ReplyDelete
  51. GMO - Up 38% off it's recent low...

    ReplyDelete
  52. Opps sorry, my eyes deceive me. 16.8% off the low.

    ReplyDelete
  53. There's a lot of stuff in the red today, what's up with that?

    ReplyDelete
  54. There's a lot of stuff in the red today, what's up with that?

    ReplyDelete
  55. the trend in the markets is still tracking the 1998 action pretty similarly. You had 3 dips down before a bottoming and then a test of the last lower closing high (which in our case would be 1,115ish) for about 6 days or so before blasting about 15% higher. if that happens here would could see a break up above tomorrow then a drip back down to the 1,110 level before going much higher.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Sorry, should say "if that happens here we could see a break up above tomorrow then a drip back down to the 1,110 level before going much higher"

    ReplyDelete
  57. what would fuel that rally is a 2 strong jobs reports in a row.

    ReplyDelete
  58. I'm thinking of getting long GMO despite having missed the low, obviously.

    GMO looks interesting on the weeklies.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Lotta hanging men and dojis on the 13, 15, 30 and 60 mins charts.

    gotta b careful

    ReplyDelete
  60. A strong jobs report would be a godsend.

    ReplyDelete
  61. I'm willing to test the theory laid out in the memo of an 8-12 week rally, we're in week 2 now I suppose.

    I also suppose it's gone much higher and faster than anticipated...

    Now if we could only get a decent jobs report or two.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Watched the xtremely weird trippy movie "The Lovely Bones" this weekend 5 times...

    Anybody see this one?

    ReplyDelete
  63. CHicken - yeah if we get a solid jobs report or two it will pretty much flatten the bears. plus, the earnings reports have been strong enough to support the S&P at 1,100 and even higher.

    but it's all about jobs. anything above 150k or so next month would be huge.

    ReplyDelete
  64. SPX pulling back from the 1113 lvl

    ReplyDelete
  65. Popping in. I see nothing has changed.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Kyle- Yeah. Kinda looks like it needs a running start. But everyone in the world is watching that level, so I expect an over night gap above if it's going to happen.

    Crazy trading in RIG.

    ReplyDelete
  67. 2nd- Only thing I see interesting is TBT rolled over.

    ReplyDelete
  68. HK- I wonder what's wrong. I'll try to dig into it tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  69. XOM/CVX making a pretty good late day push.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Bidding RBY @ 3.25. Interesting level all the way back to last May.

    ReplyDelete
  71. If I ran into a group of bulls on the street, I wouldn't have the GUTS to admit I'm a bear....

    ReplyDelete
  72. Heck, if I ran into a group of BEARS on the street, I would cross to the other side...

    ReplyDelete
  73. Taking small probe positions in SD/ENER/APWR/CSR/XNPT/BWEN

    ReplyDelete
  74. If you had opened TZA Monday July 19 around 40-41, and then confidently taken off for a one week camping trip to Yellowstone...well, there WOULD be a bear jumping up and down on the hood of your station wagon.

    It would be...YOU ;)

    ReplyDelete
  75. Kyle- Interesting, thanks. I know them all except CSR.

    ReplyDelete
  76. FF- What was that energy co. you used to trade?

    ReplyDelete
  77. Mark - HERO also... I know it's one of your favs..

    ReplyDelete
  78. added more RBY in the mini panic

    ReplyDelete
  79. PXP is trying like hell to break R2...

    RAS @ 2.06

    ReplyDelete
  80. Cheapy- I missed it by about 5 seconds.

    ReplyDelete
  81. 1115.00 is the official close. The bear case just got a hell of a lot harder...Probably means we go down now, but if I'm right, we could squeeze much higher very quickly.

    ReplyDelete
  82. RAS performed pretty crappy all day. Staying long on this with a longer time frame. I still think this has the potential to be one of the biggest gainers in the market over the next 6 months. Its crazy but if you look at the YTD chart it actually looks quite bullish and if you look at the YTD performance it is one of the best gainers out there at +57%.

    I opened a long position in EBAY at $21.05 today. I really like this as a long term investment. Paypal will be a HUGE winner for them over the long term...it already has been a home run investment.

    ReplyDelete
  83. I'm just glad I stayed away today. Even had I just watched the ticks without trading, it would still have been tiring.

    ReplyDelete
  84. one more trade near the close on /gc, netted $600 or so, getting me to almost $3900 for the day. RBY position in the black slightly because I bought lower than the close today.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Chicken,

    GMO got VERY good in the past few days; you don't need me to tell you that.

    However, I think it will soon be good for MUCH more so be loathe to take short profits.

    Bob,

    I like the RBY story but fail to see the technical setup in the stock yet.

    That could all change tomorrow, and I hope it does:)

    I am looking to get long GMO somewheres around 325-330.

    That's my next mission.

    Hey I love you guys.

    2nd.

    MArk.

    vb. Especially vb:)

    Chicken. Hey chicken do you see the bid for 3500 GMO @ 3.45 that's been out there all afternoon?

    SOmebody started liking this stock a lot in the past few days and I don't have a lot of xperience buying charts like the GMO one but it looks and sounds purty good at this price:)

    And I love wine. Lots of good red wine. MMM. Yummy.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Bob,

    I meant to say, but was too drunk to remember, that there is a consensus building that gold's gonna go down.

    If that is wrong a lot of people will be caught with their pants down in the shower grappling for the soap:)

    ReplyDelete
  87. I think gold will be a fifteen hundred dollar item in no time. Silver will go easily to 25 or 30. Maybe 50. I think silver has a lot of upside$

    ReplyDelete
  88. I see BP is sending Hayward to Siberia.. I can think of more than a few others, I think we could fill the entire flight using my list.

    ReplyDelete
  89. “What do you think about gold/miners at this point? I am thinking it might be a good time to reload. Are you still in uxg?”

    vb, I am expecting the market to collapse, which will take the miners along with it and will probably bring down gold as well. I used to have 12000 shares of UXG when it was under $1, since then I have scaled out of it almost completely, leaving only 1000 shares to sell if UXG hits $6. I have a decent position in GLD + CEF now, which is the “safest” way to bet right now on a long-term inflation (since in the interim PMs can drop a lot because of near-term deflation concerns). I do have a large position in ECU.TO now, but only because I think the company is undervalued and will be worth many times more than it is worth now once it gets through its current transient stage.

    ReplyDelete
  90. I got lucky today and TWM did not trigger my buy stop order at $20 before collapsing. However, it did hit my two buy limit orders at $19.50 and 19 for 100 shares each. I am placing new buy limit orders at $18.50 and $18 for 100 shares each. Will play this game now just like I did in February-April.

    ReplyDelete
  91. David- I'm guessing your still not net short??

    ReplyDelete
  92. Meeting with MOG tomorrow. I've got my list. Want to add anything?

    ReplyDelete
  93. Mark, after today's TWM purchase I might be close to market-neutral...

    ReplyDelete
  94. shark,

    *EVERYBODY* says gold is going to go down, yet it only drops a little bit.

    But if it was overpriced and *EVERYBODY* has sold and are shorting it, why didn't it drop fast?

    Shake out, IMO. Been there before where everyone says its going to go down and for a couple days it does, a bit, and then it goes up, leaving everyone behind.

    RBY has no technical reason whatsoever to buy. Its obviously going down and has been generally since $5.24. $3.32 is a long ways from $5.24 and I think RBY will have the lowest cost per oz new multi-million oz mine that's been seen in quite a while, by sometime next year. Their cash cost per oz should be in high $200's or low $300's, and therefore that would leave $1000 of cash flow per oz in round number terms.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Cheapy- I respect your take on this, and if your not comfortable answering just say so...How many shares are you holding?

    ReplyDelete
  96. Over 60,000 now. Added 48,000 today. It looks pretty beaten down to me.

    ReplyDelete