Monday, July 26, 2010
7/26/10 Back In The USSR
Flew in from Miami Beach BOAC
Didn't get to bed last night
On the way the paper bag was on my knee
Man, I had a dreadful flight
I'm back in the USSR
You don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the USSR
It sure feels like we're back in the Summer of 2009, quite possibly the longest-running bear rout in history (well, apart from 1982-2000). Even if not the case, anyone booking an overnight flight in the ultrashorts will need that paper bag on his/her knee.
Personally, I'm back on the sidelines, and I know how lucky I am.
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Of course, I'm not as lucky as those of you who jumped in on the long side. THAT has to be one smooth ride.
ReplyDeleteThe market has to go down tomorrow. The slickest way to accomplish that would be a gap down.
ReplyDeleteBetter yet, a gap down after Asian markets close, and before US markets open. While trapping bulls in Europe.
ReplyDeleteJust for the record, I was not sidelined today by choice. I was simply unable to act.
ReplyDeleteClassic post 2nd, classic....
ReplyDeleteDamn...I can't find a chart that doesn't have a perfect inverted H@S pattern....If one believes in such things. Just for yucks, take a look at BEN.
ReplyDeleteOh wait!! I found one...HEK...figures :)
shark- We all love you too. I would let vb pitch in with 'especially [her],' but I think she's already posted some version of that sentiment several times.
ReplyDeleteWell, look. If this rally out of left field allows a perfect wedding for tof, then it was worth it.
ReplyDeleteThanks Cheapy...Funny we were both looking at it at exactly the same time.
ReplyDeleteI just finished reading the new homes sale report. There are 219K new homes for sale in the US. The lowest since 1969. Damn, I would have thought there are 219K new homes for sale in Petaluma. Yes, I know that the used home inventory is at a 7 month supply, but the pendulum always swings too far one way or the other.
ReplyDeleteI also don't expect too much out of this rally and will take profits soon.
It was interesting to me to see Barklay's CUT PXP's price target to 35 from 40. I'll take 35 as my basis is 19.85.
what happens if this rally is for real and it only pauses for a few days here and there but doesn't stop until 1,300?
ReplyDeleteNow that TWM has dropped to $19, my buy stop order at $20 is beginning to look risky in a sense that TWM can spike up to that level and then drop back. So I canceled that order and instead placed a sell limit order at $20 for 200 shares I purchased today at the average cost of $19.25.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we're going to be getting a gap up tomorrow, much to the chagrin of the rest of the market not bullish, which is most of the market. Too many bears and skeptics and people waiting for a pullback most likely. I'm sticking with the longs. If this plays out like I think it might and we get a nasty bull rise then the trask/high beta stocks are the best ones to invest in.
ReplyDelete*trash*
ReplyDeleteAnother gap up. Will this be enough to change Landry's mind? Doubt it. Which would be bullish.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The word of the day is "range."
The market continued higher.
This action has it approaching the top of its trading range.
So far though, it remains stuck in that trading range.
Again, wait to see if it can break out of its range and stay there before getting too excited.
The sector action has improved. Several such as Manufacturing, Banks, and Automotive have broken out of their ranges. As usual though, follow through will be key.
For now, other than potential gold shorts, I don't see any new action that needs to be taken as long as the market remains in a range.
Futures are firm pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
TZA approaching a 28-handle...
ReplyDeleteMet a girl at the Toyota Dealer this morning. She came for an oil change but left with so much more:)
ReplyDeleteBought /gc again this am in 1172's, sold in 1174's for $660 profit.
ReplyDeleteGold saying "Adios!" to tha all-important 11.80 level.
ReplyDeleteFrom SOH (poster Springheel Jack):
ReplyDelete'Something very interesting happened yesterday, though few people seem to have noticed. The Dow closed above the highest close made in June, and the Transports index did the same. We therefore have a new Dow Theory Buy Signal, one of the most venerable, and reliable, of trend change confirmations in the indicator universe.
'Richard Russell, writing before the close yesterday said:
'If they both close above their June highs, it will be particularly noteworthy, because simultaneous confirmations imply a special power.'
She's part Asian, part Latina, with a great set of nice big 'ol all-weather radials and a fine looking rear bumper:).
ReplyDeleteI can genuinely see my self making her miserable for years:)
When I casually and decisively asked for her number I could tell she got all excited, and she gave it to me with no hesitation.
I'm going to call her and set up a make-out session for after work 2day, hopefully.
I've actually had terriffic luck picking up girls at that particular dealership. Much easier than a bar.
ReplyDeleteHere I sit watching X/PCAR/TLM after earnings and the Sharkster has already got a live one....She is alive, right? ;)
ReplyDeleteanother /gc from 1171's to high 1172's getting me up to $1090 on the day so far
ReplyDeleteI know it wont fill, but, bidding X @ 44.78.
ReplyDeleteCheapy- Who do you use to trade futures?
ReplyDeleteyou watch, Shark. This weel's friday report will show huge covering and buying of gold by the central banks and their minions
ReplyDeleteBidding HK @ 16.24.
ReplyDeletethe past 30 seconds was a classic short squeeze...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-27/apartment-rentals-surge-in-u-s-on-home-foreclosures-job-gains.html
ReplyDeleteThis is playing right into why I'm invested in RAS. I really think this stock is a coiled spring. It's risky, hell yeah. But if this jobs market picks up steam I think it is the most leveraged. The company has about $820 Million in equity and has a book value of $10/share. Book GAAP and Tax EPS are positive now and the trend in both has been very positive.
Bidding XCO @ 14.32
ReplyDeleteFinally got one right. TZA opened @ 28.98, off @ 29.55....and of course it's still running, but what the heck...
ReplyDeleteBidding SWN @ 35.85
ReplyDeleteFLR CEO on CNBC.
ReplyDeleteHUN is refusing to come back to me.
ReplyDelete2nd - might be time to switch it to TNA?
ReplyDeleteBidding RBY, again, @ 3.25.
ReplyDeleteBidding ENER @ 4.84.
ReplyDeletetof- I don't really care which direction I play, as long as I have some degree of conviction.
ReplyDeleteThe thing about the ultras (short or long) is that they are xlnt vehicles for gambling on short term sentiment swings. They allow me to use my 'sense' of where the crowd is, which is then magnified 3x in the price action.
It also appears the best time to take advantage of extremes in sentiment is early in the day (premarket or during/shortly after the open). It has almost always paid off to switch off the ticks for the remainder of the day. Which is what I'm planning to do now. I've made my 'quota' for the day.
Good luck!
lost $600 on /gc from 1168's, down to $440 profit for the day
ReplyDeletegotch 2nd. the market will probably pause out for a few days but I have to be honest I haven't been this bullish in a while. I am really liking what i'm seeing...combination of excessive bearishness (as evidenced by lack of volume/excessive cash not in market) and a general fear of the markets by money managers and retail investors, great earnings, an improving job market, and increased M&A activity is making me feel more positive on things.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the gap in UBS.
ReplyDeletetof- Keep in mind that Friday is end-of-month. Good bet they run prices down Wed/Thu/and or early Friday in preparation for a massive squeeze into Friday's close.
ReplyDeleteAll right Cheapy...I'm in with you. Run that F%!@er up!!
ReplyDeleteI like seeing the selling in T's....
ReplyDeleteTK's latest:
ReplyDelete'I almost cringe with embarrassment at the level of bullishness that has infected my own blog. I believe in free speech (to an extent........) and open-mindedness (to an extent.......) so I try not to let it bug me.
'But I do want to make clear that I remain steadfast in my 925 target, as outlandish as it may seem in this renewed "2007" zeitgeist that has appeared. Indeed, the seven lonely bullish positions I did have, I promptly closed this morning (six of them, if memory serves, were profitable). My portfolio stands at 112 bearish positions. That number seems puny, I realize, compared to how high my position count sometimes is, but July has been unkind to the ursine.
'As for the pronouncements I continue to see in comments stating, "I am neither a bull nor a bear; I just trade what I see", I am simply reminded of similar declaratory prefixes, such as, "I am not a racist, but....." or "It's none of my business, but........" It's right up there with "The check is in the mail." '
ECU.to - added to my position at 0.57cdn
ReplyDeleteRBY - initiated a postition at 3.36cdn - joining cheapy.
changing my ID to canadian speculator.
Anyone looking for a long might want to take a shot @ HK for 16.02. Clean stop, and I couldn't find any real interesting news on it last night. It's on my list for MOG today. GL...
ReplyDelete2nd - yeah i think there is a good chance we see a several day pause before rallying more. I am paying particular attention to the 1998 parallel.
ReplyDeletethe problem with being bullish at these levels is what should our stop out points be?
tof-I don't know. There's a good chance they try to run your stops before rallying. There needs to be a 'true' surrender by bulls before another leg up, IMO. ie, a true 'test.' Making money is never easy. Perhaps the prudent thing to do here is take profits ahead of the 'test,' and reopen positions later?
ReplyDeleteRecall that just a week ago you were concerned about your bullish posture. That will indeed be tested again. And again.
ReplyDelete2nd - I agree...that's kinda why I think it will pause...to get more people off the train before the move up. I've personally stuck it out this long and have enough profits to let it ride. Last weeks pullback actually made me feel more positive about the markets because it acted just like it should have...pull back hard enough to keep people extra skeptical of the market.
ReplyDeleteTo be prudent I'm keeping my ear to the ground with one eye on Rosie's breakfast NL and my finger on the trigger:
ReplyDelete"It's getting interesting but I'm wondering about the efficacy of maintaining a bullish stance now after a 10% rally that is possibly about to meet resistance and a rally that was devoid of volume, which is any equity market rally's vital backstop, and devoid of validation from the bond market. If this test of the 200-day m.a. fails, and I'd give it a few days since that would be prudent, I would be tempted to get more defensive – this market is completely unprepared for 500k claims and sub-50 ISM."
Since we are at the 200 DMA last night I bought FXP (again). I've been trading it since Friday.
Not my usual contrarian self, but it's been good so far.
Did anyone notice SRS hit a 52-wk low yesterday?
ReplyDeleteTK must have felt he was being too hard on his followers, and deleted the following comment (which I copied/pasted earlier):
ReplyDelete'As for the pronouncements I continue to see in comments stating, "I am neither a bull nor a bear; I just trade what I see", I am simply reminded of similar declaratory prefixes, such as, "I am not a racist, but....." or "It's none of my business, but........" It's right up there with "The check is in the mail."'
TK forgot: "Not that there's anything wrong with that."
ReplyDeleteShark forgot: "Oh, what a feeling."
I forgot to answer Mark's question from last night: CPE
FF - "this market is completely unprepared for 500k claims and sub-50 ISM." I disagree...I think it's somewhere between being prepared for it and for the possibility of better than expected jobs and low 400's / high 300's claims.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, that was a nasty pullback this morning, huh? I'm afraid that might be all the bears will get.
SAP - "higher" lic rev, sort, but not by much when viewed in constant $$$, margins were weak again, which means more layoffs...yahoo!!!
ReplyDeleteLOL! TOF..."I'm neither a bull or a bear, I just trade what I see".
ReplyDeleteSold the FXP though.
Checking in, I see banks are up and T rates are increasing.
ReplyDeleteCommodities about ready for another leg up?
The crazies have been selling their gold, too!
By the way, anyone see the action in GLD today? I don't know why I didn't short GLD last week when I thought it looked bad. In my mind, this is just reason for a leg up in the markets. All of that fear / risk aversion sitting in gold is coming out and most likely going into the equity market. TLT is tanking as well.
ReplyDeleteTOF - As you know, I gave up trading in or against gold, just couldn't figure out which way it was headed next.
ReplyDeleteThe first go-round in 2008 gold didn't do anywhere as well as cash, destroying the safe-haven definition as far as I'm concerned.
I suspect gold has become a mechanism for laundering illegal drug money.
I will stick with 2nd's 6:10 AM post.
ReplyDeleteIf you have a method, stick with it.
I'm not smart enough to predict what the market does. I'm just a trend follower with a couple of day trades for fun and lunch money. today I can afford a lobster lunch. Sometimes it's only beany-weenies.
My buy limit order for 100 shares of TWM was triggered at $18.50 this morning, the low of the day so far. :)
ReplyDeleteAlso, taking advantage of today's weakness in PMs, I have just purchased manually 250 more shares of CEF (now I have 1000). As Hussman has predicted, over the next couple of years PMs can be in for a rough ride during the second wave of the credit crisis. However, toward the end of the decade, he said, PMs should zoom.
"We therefore have a new Dow Theory Buy Signal, one of the most venerable, and reliable, of trend change confirmations in the indicator universe."
ReplyDeleteI think these signals were developed for the time when people used to be doing trading. With computers trading against us now, I don't think they care about these patterns too much. I am sure all of these patterns were programmed into them already and now they are trying to fake the most people based on these patterns and draw them into taking losing positions.
That same Richard Russell was shouting a month ago "Sell Everything! You won't recognize America by the end of 2010!" He is ready to change his mind now just based on a rally in the stock prices? That means his warning don't have any substance under them...
David - I agree about the flip flopping nature of Richard Russell, although to be fair he did say he still believes this will be a short lived rally and that we're still in the middle of a long term bear market.
ReplyDeleteIt's crazy how quickly the Dow Theory can change from sell to buy, though. But it makes sense when you're in a range bound market.
We have two head and shoulders too. One right side up and the other right after - inverted.
ReplyDeleteEveryone see's these so they tend to mean nothing as well.
Head and Shoulders is just shampoo to me.
OK, HK filled @ 16.24 and 16.00. Basis 16.09. Pulled X/XCO/SWN. Keeping ENER @ 9.84.
ReplyDeleteStrange market today. Down 250 bucks here....Make that 450 :) I better post this before I have to change it again!!
FF- Thanks. CPE has held up real well. That's impressive.
ReplyDeleteAdded some eBay at $20.94.
ReplyDeleteMy buy limit order for 8500 shares of ECU.TO at CAD$0.56 was executed today, complementing the partial purchase of 1500 shares at $0.56 last week. So now I have 70000 shares of this company. Maybe I should stop buying it now and focus on buying only CEF on weakness...
ReplyDeleteBought 1000 shares of TWM for a day trade at $19.12, placed a stop at $19.04.
ReplyDeleteThe pattern I spotted did not work out for me -- stopped out at $19.03 for a $90 loss. Back to work. :)
ReplyDeleteLet's try it again: 1000 shares of TWM at $19.11, stop at $19.01.
ReplyDeleteLost $10500 on /gc, reloaded too high, price collapsed
ReplyDeleteAccumulating RBY, saving dry powder for DGP.
I wonder if today was total capitulation day for gold. Jim Sinclair says it was, but all the TV folks are waiting for $1145 to cover
500 more TWM at $19.05 with a stop at $19.01.
ReplyDeleteStopped out again! Damn! The lesson here, I guess, is to buy only on extreme weakness in a range-bound market...
ReplyDeletedavid - the market is only range bound for today it looks like.
ReplyDeleteCheapy - i have a funny feeling the bottom for gold prices is much lower.
Are we going to look back at today/this week in a month or two from today and say: "Why didn't I load up when the market sold off?" ?.
ReplyDeleteOn another note. I was out using my laptop today doing a webinar. When I got home I took out my laptop and could not use the keyboard. Dead as a doornail. Googled my problem and found I should take out the battery and plug laptop into the wall socket. Can't believe it solved my problem.