Tuesday, July 27, 2010
7/27/10 Somewhere Over The Rainbow
Somewhere over the rainbow
Way up high,
There's a land that I heard of
Once in a lullaby.
Somewhere over the rainbow
Skies are blue,
And the dreams that you dare to dream
Really do come true.
Someday I'll wish upon a star
And wake up where the clouds are far
Behind me.
Where troubles melt like lemon drops
Away above the chimney tops
That's where you'll find me.
Somewhere over the rainbow
Bluebirds fly.
Birds fly over the rainbow.
Why then, oh why can't I?
It's not about someday, or somewhere. It's our moment-to-moment decisions and actions that allow us to make our way (one step at a time) to a destination often referred to as Somewhere.
And somehow, in the many buys and sells we transact over a lifetime, we make our way Over the Rainbow. That's exactly how each of us manages to 'fly.'
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Laptops can be freakishly unreliable occasionally...
ReplyDeleteWell, I was able to poke my head above water after all on the strength of HEK/HK/V/RAS. My over sized position in PXP kept the gains minimal.
ReplyDeleteI did increase my long exposure over the last 2 days though, adding RAS/HK/RBY.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-28/technical-analysis-fails-as-money-making-strategy-for-stocks-birinyi-says.html
ReplyDeleteHmmm....Futures quite, Trading Topics quite...why does that make me nervous?
ReplyDeleteMark - the only thing I'm nervous about is not being long enough, to be honest. I am using any weakness in the markets due to a weak GDP report as an excuse to add to my longs. I think we should be paying particular attention to gold dropping as a sign that people are getting out of their fear trades and warming up to stocks.
ReplyDeleteI know, it's crazy talk. I haven't felt this bullish in a while.
with that, i've marked the highs for the rest of the year!
ReplyDeleteAmazing Birinyi states this as he is not bashful charging for his mini-Institutional research which I subscribed to years ago. He also threw in his monthly newsletter which basically just pick about 10 stocks. He would buy weakness and sell strength of these and repeat and rinse.
ReplyDelete“They tell us what is going on, but seldom predict future moves.” “Technical approaches can and should be a useful adjunct to every investor’s -- amateur and professional -- arsenal, if and only if used properly and with understanding,” Birinyi wrote. “Technicals detail and hopefully illuminate, but do not predict.”
TOF as far as any future predictability, fundamental analysis scores about the same here as technical analysis.
"Basically, fundamentals are the concerns of businesses themselves, and economists. They relate to stock trends in the sense that so many moneyed decisions are based upon them, but they have virtually no forecasting validity for the stock price."
Justin Mamis
He goes on to say, "Fundamental knowledge was of the essence at the 87 crash lows, when some stocks-if you knew the companies-were being "given away" at that moment."
Again, Justin Mamis.
Same could be said for 09 lows.
"A backward glance of price earnings ratio shows how unpredictable it is as an indicator. What was once valued at 10 times earnings in 1973 became a huge loss in 1974 as the same stock slipped to sell at five or four or even two times earnings."
Justin mamis
The point being as there is basically no future predictability on any method. It is just a framework or structure of choice which one is most comfortable with. Nothing more nothing less.
Price or price trend is the closest thing to the truth. The truth in the market is price.
http://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/aa06d70c-d4c3-4ac7-b712-d503ce24cd4c
ReplyDeleteBTW, I agree with you it is quite possible we rip to the old highs of SP 1220ish.
ReplyDeleteTime will tell.
With respect to gold we are only off -8% from the highs with the 200 dma at 1147. The SP corrected -17% off its highs to 1011 and many people are still bullish.
ReplyDeleteSmart money has lost confidence in fiat, this is just a pause that refreshes and shaking out weak hands.
Time will tell here too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObTvXg5P7t0
ReplyDeleteI see red at the moment, durable goods worse than expected.
ReplyDeleteTrade #1: TZA- opened @ 30.01, closed @ 30.33...
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market stalled out the top of its trading range.
So far, this action keeps it stuck in that range.
Many sectors also stalled near the top if their trading ranges.
Again, wait to see if it can break out of its range and stay there before getting too excited.
Considering the sideways arrow: Once again, other than potential gold shorts (which began triggering on Tuesday), I don't see any new action that needs to be taken.
Futures are flat to soft pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Funny how gold is considered a fear haven while it sells off every time equities do.
ReplyDeleteGold is an inflation trade, inverse U$D. How can someone claim it's anything else but?
Great read by Todd Harrison:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-ive-learned-from-the-market-bubbles-2010-07-28
Be prepared if/as/when we exit the 'eye of the storm.'
I am buying vxx
ReplyDeletegl
maybe nxg too
ReplyDeleteGMO getting ready to have a big day
ReplyDeleteTrades #2, 3, 4:
ReplyDeleteTZA- Reopened @ 30, closed @ 30.36
ERY- Opened @ 50.805, closed @ 51.3146
ERY (2nd allotment)- Opened @ 50.8436, closed @ 51.2409
durable goods were pretty crappy. if tomorrow's claims numbers don't come through then we could have 3 bad reports in a row...prob enough to sink the market back down to 1080
ReplyDeleteWow...sleepy time here. Nothing of any interest popping up.
ReplyDeleteBidding ENER @ 4.78. Doubt it will get there. Top side of the 50.
ReplyDeleteThe good news:
ReplyDeleteI had an awesome first date with a woman I met at the Toyota dealer yesterday morning. Earliest pickup for me, had her number before 7:30 am:)
Last night we sat at the beach drinking chilled stoli watching the moon rise over the sound, it was super, super SUPER-nice.
I have pos in PAL and GMO with stops underneath. They are both underwater.
The stocks not the girl:)
ReplyDeleteThank you for the clarification Sharkie.
ReplyDeleteAt the close guys....
ReplyDeleteSharkie's mermaid? The weather here has improved dramatically as well, the heat/humidity has been sauna style.
ReplyDeleteTrades #6, 7
ReplyDeleteERY- opened @ 51.04, closed @ 51.40
ERY- 2nd allotment, opened @ 50.94, closed @ 51.40
GMO - Steel industry is under the gun but CPSL has been chugging along with FXI...
ReplyDeleteThey're still buying the dips.
ReplyDeleteI think it goes green at this point.
ReplyDeleteGMO - $3.30 seems to be the line we've been trading around.
ReplyDelete2nd - I agree with you completely, but then again I'm a bull!
ReplyDeleteAONE lunchtime pullback
ReplyDeleteBWEN - Anybody have aspirations for this company? Today might be a decent entry opportunity?
ReplyDeleteHi CP - been looking at BWEN now and then. at this point I'm going to wait until earnings (aug 9). still not sure these "pure play" guys can compete with the likes of GE, KUB, CMI, etc.
ReplyDeleteare you thinking they might make a good takeover target?
I didn't realize that Copper was so strong. It's at a 60 day high:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
Still down about 7% from the early April highs.
Yes, copper inventories have reportedly been low. I suspect China and India were loading up at the bottom, might see the result in the BDI especially if China has been reloading on thermal coal and iron ore as well?
ReplyDeleteThe story of lower steel prices is getting stale, it's been floating around for a couple of months at least. Does it jive with auto manufacturing?
Speaking of auto manufacturing, the GM volt can travel a whopping 50mi under battery power and only costs $40k? Wonder if they thought about throwing a few more solar cells and a wind turbine on top to get a few hundred more milliamps out of that puppy?
jb - BWEN - Truthfully, I don't have a feel for it and I'm sure the big boys would effectively muscle in on their own behalf but there could be some form of governmental "pitty" funding to give the 'ol windsock a rise?
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'm still waiting for some form of US infrastructure investment to materialize (good for steel/copper?) but so far, no dice!!! Baffling!!!
going green...
ReplyDeleteexactly CP, don't understand (given all the $$$'s getting tossed at crap by the gov't) why we haven't had major money applied towards alt energy. I know that the german gov't is making large investments in this area (and we're selling lots of s/w to the co's getting the $$$).
ReplyDeleteChicken - "only" $40k? Man, they need to get these prices down.
ReplyDeleteMy friend just bought a 1984 Mercedes, one of those old ones just like the ones in Scarface or older movies. It's in great shape but a jalopy nonetheless. The seller rejiggered the engine so he now can use Vegetable oil. He goes to a local restaurant and gets the grease from them every week for free. He doesn't pay a dime for oil. The car was $2,400. He should pay for the price of it in 1 years worth of veggie oil. I'd call that cheap.
I'll be out for the rest of the trading day, so I am placing a buy stop order for 600 shares of TWM at $20 for the day.
ReplyDeleteAlso, HNU.TO hit my sell limit at CAD$6.6 for 800 shares I purchased at CAD$6. If ECU.TO drops to CAD$0.5, then I'll "rotate" these funds into ECU.TO.
Also, I just sold 8 August $8 covered calls for $0.39 each against my 800 shares of UNG. Last time I sold such calls for $0.5 each they happily expired (in July) -- let's see for how long I'll be able to keep making money off these 800 UNG shares. :)
ReplyDeleteTOF - It's hard to beat an old hooptie if you've got decent mechanical skills, there's something about driving nostalgia around I just can't pass up.
ReplyDeleteUh-oh- TLT getting bid up, at the high of the day....
ReplyDelete$VIX also holding above the 200 DMA of 23.38
ReplyDeleteMarket's just playing around with us right now....
ReplyDeleteWe need some sideways action in order to work off those high RSI's but why must it be so near the edge of the cliff? I say run it up past 1200 then go sideways... or at least sell it off to 880 so we can add.
ReplyDeleteDo I detect the odor of a freshly baited bear trap fully adorned with fresh scraps of back-fat?
ReplyDeleteBears may be vision challenged but their sniffers are up to snuff.
cp - You're good man!! Just poured myself a drink & am trying to stay away from the BGZ buy key...
ReplyDeleteFCEL moving off very low levels
ReplyDeleteI wonder why the 4.5% spike in SGG (sugar)? But it's saving my ass.
ReplyDeleteI do like to see crude firm though after the inventory report.
Kyle- Did you get out of SCO on the spike?
Mark- Yes, all but 20sh...my standard probe amount just to keep it on my screen. Same with DZZ.
ReplyDeleteThis is kinda a critical area for me. A lot of my positions are testing the top side of the 5.
ReplyDeleteKyle- I do the same thing.
ReplyDeleteHUN just refuses to come back enough.
ReplyDelete2nd - i think the market has a brain and it knows we're all thinking a big break is coming, so its just f'ing with us. Run up TLT to get the bulls scared. Run the VIX down to 22 to get the bears scared. Rinse, repeat.
ReplyDeleteArghhh! Even TLT has reversed. Not many green longs remaining out there right now... Beige book not very inspiring?
ReplyDeleteSGG/UNG/JJG/GS - Green
Everyone's yelling at each other again on the tube...
ReplyDeleteSGG off @ 52.76.
ReplyDeleteBidding XCO @ 14.54.
ReplyDeleteLooking kind of bearish....
ReplyDelete1108 or higher at the close.
ReplyDeletereloaded 1/2 of the PIR shares I sold at $7.20 and $7.50 just now at $6.75.
ReplyDeleteCVS/CPSL - other greenies...
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell just happened to GMO??
ReplyDeleteOK, now it's looking kind of bullish...
ReplyDeleteGMO - What do you mean, steel is getting beat up pretty badly b/c of X? This started yesterday, didn't just happen.
ReplyDeleteOf course I can't add to my position here, I need a much lower price that probably won't come to me.
GMO - No, Mark is right, there was a sharp volume spike...???
ReplyDeleteENER - Believe will pullback to C-BB (~4.50). Not today though
ReplyDeleteif the 1998 parallel continues to play out then we have another day or so of a pullback before another leg higher.
ReplyDeleteOkay on the volume spike but what's the significance, positive or negative? Looks like someone unloaded, spiking the price down momentarily? Still, relative volume is low.
ReplyDeleteA push higher on Friday afternoon would make sense from a window dressing POV.
ReplyDeleteWaiting on V earnings. Could set the tome for tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNo, I guess someone bought which spiked the price up...
ReplyDeleteV earnings/projected growth rate seem very strong to me. Let's see how she goes off tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNo trades today. Still holding lots of RBY and DGP from yesterday's panic. All positions in green.
ReplyDeleteSharkie - Did you split before the fun began in earnest?
ReplyDelete"A push higher on Friday afternoon would make sense from a window dressing POV. "
ReplyDeleteDepending of course on which kind of dressing a certain chef was spritzing over the salad, could be a chutney. My impression is we're still deep in the woods without a compass, stuck in the mud up to the axles, up a creek without a paddle, a few bricks short of a full load, etc..
Reminds me of taking the last evening train out of Tokyo only to discover it shuts down before arriving to your final destination.
cp- Yeah. I like my dressing spiked.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- great day trades today! You must have fulfilled your plan for a week today! :)
ReplyDeleteI was away at the meetings for the day and couldn't join you at the day trading fun.
Mark -- you showed an amazing patience with SGG! I tried getting back into it after I sold my initial position with a small profit, but was then shaken out flat at my second entry point and did not have the courage to re-enter it again. This is an unfortunate case for me of finding a good long play and exiting it WAY too early...
ReplyDelete