Wednesday, July 28, 2010

7/28/10 Red House



Just when I get tired of sleeping dogs like ERY/TZA, they wake up and remind me why I love trading the ultras. 7 brief trades pushed my gains for the week into 4 figures. All I really had to do was wait for the inevitable freefalls to reload. For once, I was trading with the trend. So you could say I just need to learn to trade with the wind behind my back.

172 comments:

  1. 2nd_ave -- great day trades today! You must have fulfilled your plan for a week today! :)

    I was away at the meetings for the day and couldn't join you at the day trading fun.

    Day trading with the intraday trend is definitely more profitable than day trading against the intraday trend.

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  2. Mark -- you showed an amazing patience with SGG! I tried getting back into it after I sold my initial position with a small profit, but was then shaken out flat at my second entry point and did not have the courage to re-enter it again. This is an unfortunate case for me of finding a good long play and exiting it WAY too early...

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  3. why do i get a feeling we're due for a gap up or gap down very soon.

    i'm bullish so i personally think (hope?) it's a gap up...

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  4. tof- It seems as if there's been a gap up or down almost every other day.

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  5. If you're talking about a 100-300 point gap on the DJIA, then I'm all for it. I'll take one, either way.

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  6. Thanks David. I wish I was as patient with the first 1/2, but that was a large position for me and the gains "real".

    TOF- You can rest easy. Looks like a gap up. ES currently trading +.90 ;)

    2nd- Did you see there are more crack flavors headed your way? :)

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  7. 2nd / Mark - Yeah I think it's about time for a gap. We haven't had one in a week.

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  8. There's a pretty interesting "death cross" analysis over at SOH. (Not by TK). Too lazy to read it?...Short answer, it hasn't worked over the last 5 years, 3 or 6 months out.

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  9. guys - i'm telling you...take a look at the price action back in October 1998. It's very similar to today's price action. The market spiked up after the sovereign debt crisis back them to test the 200 DMA and then it went back under for a couple of days only to gap up through the 200 DMA and just run higher.

    people back then must have been seeing the market go back under the 200 DMA for a couple of days and say that we were screwed because the market couldn't push through the 200 DMA after it was under it for almost 2 months. the charts looked very similar to back then.

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  10. If I wake up and see ES +22.50, then it's over for the bears.

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  11. Murphy's trading law:

    The market won't go up because we think it is, it'll only go up when we aren't anticipating it.

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  12. CRYP? No news I could find. What I've read recently is scary.

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  13. Ut Oh...Here we go again..quite everywhere.

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  14. Mark - tomorrow and Friday are going to be volatile. jobless claims and GDP should light a fire under the bears/bulls depending on the data. I think the earnings provided a good support level under the market...all it takes is a little positive econ data and we're back up to 1,200.

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  15. <<<< Crickets chirping >>>>

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  16. Buzz on the Street: SPX Low May Be in for the Year
    Fri Jul 23rd, 2010
    TERRY WOO

    If anyone has access to this article and can post, I would appreciate it.

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  17. Oh Yeah, the above is on Minyanville, Harrison's site.

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  18. 3 month low for gold, 11 month high for copper.

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  19. The futures are positive now, so I am placing a buy stop limit order on 600 shares of TWM at $20/20.10 and hopefully it will get triggered only of TWM closes the day above $20...

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  20. At this point it appears to be a gap up. ES +6.25...

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  21. Planning to invoke the 'no-trading rule-' ie, refrain from trading the day following a day of above-average gains. It seems to work well.

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  22. 2nd: That was great trading yesterday. Taking a day off makes sense.

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  23. Landry-

    Random Thoughts:

    Not much has changed:

    The market continued to sell off from the top of its trading range.

    So far, this action keeps it stuck in that range.

    Many sectors also have stalled near the top of their trading ranges.

    Again, wait to see if it can break out of its range and stay there before getting too excited.

    Considering the sideways arrow: Once again, other than potential gold shorts (which began triggering on Tuesday), I don't see any new action that needs to be taken.

    Futures are strong pre-market.

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  24. 2nd - Can I place a bet that you do make a trade? You're an ultra junky. Although it seems you can't get on that ultra long train yet. Maybe tomorrow when we break out?

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  25. You'll lose the bet. I'm actually quite disciplined most of the time, both inside and outside the trading arena. I like to joke about addictions to gambling, alcohol, and dating ultrashorts, but my only real addictions are to books, movies, and the occasional drive/stroll into bleak neighborhoods.

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  26. Opening VXX @ 22.38/SRS @ 22.98.....juuuust kidding....

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  27. Energy strong out of the gate.

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  28. Day 2 for CRYP. I can't find a damn thing.

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  29. Damn- Good thing I was just kidding. We could see a massive short squeeze today. Our collective experience during the Summer of '09 is paying off this summer.

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  30. Mark- Re energy, that's an understatement. I traded ERY back/forth several times in the 50.85/51.40 range yesterday, and now it's threatening to drop to a 48-handle.

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  31. Bears need to turn the tide soon, or it could be a long day for Slopers.

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  32. Looks like I should have held onto SGG and let V go. Still, yesterdays $900 loss has turned into a $2K gain today. Oil broke 80. Let's see if it holds.

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  33. Here's the pullback that refreshes...

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  34. Sold my PIR that I bought yesterday at $7.15. Looks to reload shortly.

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  35. Added half of my PIR shares back at $6.99

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  36. X is red....I never like that.

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  37. 43.50 is a pretty important level for X.

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  38. if i was trading this chart i would probably be going short it, no?

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel

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  39. 1 month libor/Teddy continue to drop.

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  40. TOF- Take a screen shot of the chart. Linky no worky.

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  41. Looks like ERY would have been the one to buy at 49.0x.....

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  42. For us longs, this is not good action. Seriously considering my position here.

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  43. mark - click on the jobless claims link from today...there is a chart at the bottom of the jobless claims and the 4 week average...sure looks like its about to turn south.

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  44. Mark- Well, we all need to take profits at some point. You've had a phenomenal run.

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  45. added my full position back in PIR at $7.00

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  46. that's in addition to the shares I added a couple of weeks ago at $6.40 and the ones I added this morning at $6.99. I'm a PIR junky.

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  47. Well, I know a few old(er) ladies who are also PIR junkies ;)

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  48. Look at TLT sell off sharply. Now THATS some bearish action, Mark

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  49. 2nd- I always like to ask myself, would I buy here. The answer to that is far less certain than a few days ago.

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  50. not too many longs have conviction ahead of the GDP report.

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  51. Were I trading I'd be reopening ERY now @ 50.09...

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  52. Lets see what Natty tells us.

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  53. TOF- I like to see intra-day strength, like last week. Exact opposite this week.

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  54. wow look at that 3 day drop in MBLX. just 3 days ago i was annoyed that i didn't hold on to my position and now i'm glad i didn't.

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  55. yeah, its hard for anyone to have conviction ahead of GDP and next weeks jobs report, unless you're an ignorant long like me. let's see how the market plays out after it goes flat.

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  56. Great job 2nd!

    I have gone flat in anticipation of two lousy days ahead.

    Red close!

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  57. TLt has been selling off all morning.

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  58. if the market plays out like it did in 1998 then we should be flat to down today and tomorrow and then sharply higher on Monday/Tues/Wed.

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  59. TOF- I follow CE closely. Good earnings today and great guidance. Red on the day.

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  60. And I'd be taking ERY off now @ 50.18, for a negligible gain.

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  61. Then I'd be kicking myself for taking it off, just before it took off...

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  62. pulled off my PIR at $6.93. staying on the sidelines.

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  63. PXP off @ 22.60. HK off @ 16.19.

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  64. HEK off @ 4.67. SSO off @ 37.26.

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  65. RBY off @ 3.35. Thanks for that one Cheapy!!

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  66. ok, now it's getting ugly.

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  67. Nice timing on the exits, Mark.

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  68. CRYP - "House Passes Online Gaming Bill"

    July 29 (Bloomberg) -- A House committee yesterday approved legislation that would legalize some Internet gambling, allowing U.S. residents to place online wagers with companies the Treasury Department has licensed.

    The measure, sponsored by Representative Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, would roll back a law designed to block such betting. That four-year-old law, which took effect in June, bars banks from processing payments to offshore gambling websites."

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-29/measure-legalizing-some-online-gambling-passes-u-s-house-panel.html

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  69. Internet gambling is already legal, as we all know.

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  70. CRYP - Maybe we'd be better off trying our hand at online gambling instead of the equities market?

    Considering the differences between the two.... One is more predictable than the other.

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  71. Actually I like RBY a lot here as a swing trade long. I will maybe try to buy some.

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  72. bought some BGU at $46.39. we're at the bottom of the trendline from the lows of the year.

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  73. I get the feeling equities want to sell off ahead of disappointing GDP news, setting up for another baffling rally.

    But what the heck do I know about the equities market? Not a damn thing apparently judging by my inability to trust the charts that prove me wrong time and again.

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  74. Why not buy some silver here? I know, I know, shoulda bought some back in February.

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  75. If I had to guess, we cascade much lower during the day, and close near the lows...

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  76. Shanghai closes up again - I'm gonna have a hard time letting go of anything as long as China remains in rally mode.

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  77. Mortgage rates at all time low (Okay - maybe for good reason, why fight it?), and showing signs of weakness?

    PM's seem to have found(are finding?) support?

    I think if PM's rally, so will equities. Anyone care to venture an educated guess on that?

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  78. Still holding RBY, here. Its very beaten up and way undervalued for $1100 gold, IMO.

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  79. We close -250 to -400 points on the DJIA.

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  80. Ok, 2nd you just scared the crap out of me.

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  81. 2nd- Thanks. X broke the 50 and bounced off the 20.

    I honestly am looking to get back in. Nice to have a clean plate and booked profits though.

    RBY- Cheapy is buying dinner :)

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  82. You might be right here 2nd. Fing X back down to the 20. No move MA's below it. Toe hold at 40.40.

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  83. screw it...i'm out of everything except my SPY positions. let the buying commence!

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  84. tof- You called for down days today and tomorrow. So far it's playing out exactly as you envisioned.

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  85. We're still 600 points above where the DJIA was sitting when I started to press my bearish sentiment.

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  86. And if we make the usual allowance for a 1-2 day lag between my calls and when they actually occur, then there's plenty of time to exit positions ;)

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  87. May still get a bounce off of SPX 1095, but a 1090 break would open the door much lower

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  88. 2nd - yeah, that's why i'm holding on to my SPY positions for another day or two and will re-assess. RAS and BGU are too risky right now.

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  89. Vad had an X DBI trade example w/ comments over at cc

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  90. Kind of a TOG day. Gold up, TLT down.

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  91. My buy stop order for 600 shares of TWM was triggered this morning at $20, and I have just placed a sell stop at $20.05 for these shares.

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  92. OK, stopped out at $20.05 from the 600 shares I picked up this morning. Placing a buy stop order again at $20.15, just above the range where TWM has paused on the way down.

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  93. Since I am awake now, I placed a buy stop for 1000 shares -- a slightly larger position, but I can monitor it now! :)

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  94. my gut tells me this is the dip in metals that I have been waiting on. cp, based on last 2 years, I think that if market falls further, yes, gold and silver will most likely go down more, which I see as an even better position - so that is why I am scaling in slowly. my ira is all gold and metals and mining now.

    still holding vxx -

    that is my 2 cents (and about all I have left!) lol

    v b

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  95. A bounce to 1,100 and then a sell off makes sense. I honestly didn't expect this much of a pullback from the 1,120 level. Today's action is brutal and keep in mind 1,121 is the 50% retracement of the 2007 to 2009 fall. We seem to be having trouble with this area. All of these suggest caution until we can close above the 1,120 level for a few days or one day significantly above it. I was 100% long which is dumb given all of this info.

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  96. If the market's headed down and PM's are last off the dance floor, it doesn't seem to me PM's would be in rally mode from here.

    The sequence goes: financials, energy, basic materials, precious materials, right?

    My lie detector isn't very well tuned - Is the above sequence really just a bunch of unproven malarkey?

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  97. Honestly, I'm not seeing enough weakness in the big banks for any large sell off. Are the dip buyers here going to get smoked? I'm not so sure.

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  98. CP- That's what he says.

    Crude back over 80.

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  99. Lowering my buy stop to 20.05, just above the next recent high made by TWM.

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  100. Sold a bunch of DGP for $5400 profit. That recovers a bit over 1/2 of the big loss from the other day. The balance is still long RBY.

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  101. The actions in financials, Treasuries, and PM's give me a feeling this equities selling is a bunch of BS.

    Unless equities are the leading indicator.

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  102. There goes the cheapy indicator lights and siren, selling his PM's too early once again.

    Yep, I'm grabbing at straws, now I'm using cheapy as an indicator...

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  103. And now the DJIA sell-off has recovered to -38...

    I can now officially proclaim 'WTF do I know?'

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  104. Well, you were right....

    Would have been a bunch more if I'd been selling now, and if I look at daily chart it looks more like a bottom, not a top

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  105. Maybe it's another 'flash crash' and the indexes will meander down...

    But now I can append WTFDIK to all of my calls...

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  106. If nothing else, today's action reinforces the prudence of very short time frames on the ultras. Take profits when you have them. B/c they won't be there in another 20 minutes.

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  107. looks like I capitulated half of my longs at the bottom. we're still in the red though so no reason to get over excited here by this bounce.

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  108. You what, man? It's a good thing my trading's on hold today. B/c although I would have sold the ultrashorts into the -100+ spike down in the DJIA, I would probably have reopened at -40, only to be stopping out right now at -17.

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  109. tof- I'm sorry if I contributed to your capitulation. Pretty sure I did.

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  110. There's no doubt I was 'seeing' -250 to -400 at the time, though.

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  111. I'll let shark come up with the appropriate Sicilian expression for that call...

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  112. 2nd - i can't give you that much credit, although i did let my emotions get the best of me. i might just be moving from 50% to 100% long by the close if we're green! ok, again...gotta take down those emotions.

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  113. TOF, the benefit of every decision can be known only after many days have passed. What if the indexes close flat today but then gap down tomorrow (after the ECRI Growth rate drops below -11%) and don't recover to 1100 on the S&P for the next 5 years?

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  114. David- Now that call is the one that should be scaring the crap out of us...

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  115. Let's see how the 2pm reversal plays out...

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  116. How the hell can anyone be expected to take the leap of faith and put his life's saving into a market that fluctuates so wildly?

    Silly me, the masses have no savings... no wonder why!

    I think if I were in savings collection mode at this point, I'd be buying real estate with my savings. I don't think investment banks will be screwing around with that one again for a long while.

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  117. david - it's certainly possible. i was just kidding about the all in long by the end of the day. i'm giving it a couple of days before making my mind up if the 1998 parallel pans out.

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  118. alright- i think they have dip-buyers sufficiently conditioned to explain the recovery. not to mention the fact that shorts are all on short triggers right now.

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  119. Long BGZ at $14.7

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  120. Platinum is really flying this afternoon.

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  121. added a little more BGZ at $14.65

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  122. 2nd - I think they've got someone by the short hairs, just hope I'm not one of them.

    Sure would be nice if they'd carbon copy us on the memo once in a while.

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  123. BC - Up 12% today...

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  124. Added more BGZ at $14.62

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  125. Stop set on BGZ at $14.51.

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  126. BC - Swing to profit!

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  127. stop hit on BGZ...yikes. now i remember why i (tried to) stopped daytrading.

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  128. RBY: Got a buy signal - yesterday's close.
    Thanks cheapybob for pointing this one out to me.
    Want to average up on this one. We will see.

    HGU.to: Watching it to initiate a position. PM stocks look set to rise on end of world news next week. That's according to broken crystal ball.

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  129. shit we're prob going green.

    have u all seen the TED spread? it's collapsing once again.

    long BGU at 47.5.

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  130. No way....DJIA has bounced back into the green.

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  131. If you were short and confidently took off for a lunch date (on the E Coast), you'd be losing your lunch right now.

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  132. Took BGU off at $47.86.

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  133. GDP report - Isn't this little recovery a bit strange in light of tomorrow's report not having a snowball's chance of being decent?

    I'm tempted to sell something here...

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  134. CP- I damn near reopened some positions about 1/2 hour ago, but didn't. I agree, something isn't right with the market right now.

    VIX is red which is strange as hell given all the volatility.

    Like 2nd said...right now WTFDIK, and if that's the case I'm keeping my zipper UP.

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  135. chicken - i still think there is an upside surprise possibility here. too many people are negative on this market/economy.

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  136. we're clearly at a pretty important point in the markets...that's why it's not going anywhere until we get GDP and Jobs data.

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  137. I have a question for myself: if I was lucky to wake up and see that the double bottom in the Dow has just formed and TWM was still above my morning purchase price, why didn't I close all my TWM immediately (when it was at $20.33) with the intention of repurchasing it if that double bottom got broken? Well, let's say I decided to wait a little for a confirmation of the uptrend taking place and placed a sell stop for 600 shares of TWM at $20.05 -- why didn't I place a sell stop for all 1000 shares I had at that point???

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  138. I bet we fall apart into the close...

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  139. CSCO - Inverse flash crash?

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  140. Close - I don't see how we could avoid falling apart going into close. Want some TZA but can't pull the trigger.

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  141. by the way, if we close below 110.46 then we're looking at a key reversal day (i believe that's what they call it), where the days high and lows were above and below yesterdays highs and lows and the close is below yesterdays lows.

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  142. Lookie at GS fly!

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  143. It's called an outside day

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  144. GS/JPM/WFC/MS/C all have sell side inbalances.

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  145. it looks like the reversal day is gonna happen. i'm moving my SPY to my money market account at the close and am willing to buy back higher if we get a close above 1,120 for a few days or one days close significantly above it.

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  146. 6/21 was last outside day in spy. the mkt swing topped there

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  147. 110.46 - They'll close it below if they already know tomorrow's GDP report's an upside surprise?

    Some underhanded goings-on in the market today?

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  148. Well, I couldn't resist. Sold the RBY near the close, mostly 3.48-3.49. I don't know why it spiked, but I guess I'll take it. All accounts a all time highs again. Yeah, I probably sold too early again, LOL.

    Whew!

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  149. Anon - I was just about to say that. The last time we had a day like this was on 6/21 when it opened up around 1,130 and then proceeded to drop like a rock down to 1,010. I'm taking off risk to avoid this happening again.

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  150. Last of RBY just sold a few min ago... Oh well, watch them announce spectacular drill results tomorrow on me.

    I wonder if the Fed's speak from today boosts gold back up again or it declines on a deleveraging panic. I really have no clue and am at the point I'm willing to take a good profit on any day.

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  151. now 100% in cash.

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  152. It's really strange to me how the bid spread widens so much immediately following close.

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  153. Placing, once again, a buy stop limit order for 600 shares of TWM at $20/$20.10.

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  154. Turns out the one acct that the big loss the other day is still down from ATH, but its the only one and the aggregate total of all of them are back to ATH's. Maybe I should be happy to be winning at all, I think, in this spastic market.

    Any thoughts on tomorrow's GDP number and how it might affect the stock markets or gold?

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  155. Another FUD day. And that had an impact as my portfolios as they zoomed up today. Flight to quality by the funds. Remember funds don't go to all cash at the end of the day and I don't either.

    But what the funds do is rotate from one sector that implies more risk and moves into a sector that provides a lower risk. We "might" be seeing that happen now as funds move to the PM sector. I am very bullish today on Gold Stocks. The move can be quick if you are not in and you become FUDded out.

    I am taking the PM train and waiting for it to leave the station. ALL Aboard? Time to scale in - not go all in.

    Time will tell.

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  156. CI,

    On the one hand I agree that especially if the Fed goes into more QE mode, gold almost must take off, but experience tells me they will have no qualms fudging GDP numbers or anything else to shake gold down as usual, first.

    Life sucks being a gold bug. Everyone always wants to squash you.

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  157. Cheapy- We HAVE to...It's just so much damn fun :)))

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  158. Cheapy- BTW- Nice work with RBY. Sometimes I get pretty large in a single position also. But one as thin and cheap as RBY take balls man.

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  159. RBY: this one was a better bet than the other small PM's that were on my watch list. It poked me in the eye when I saw the chart. It was like a 'no brainer' for the odds.

    CB: The smart money knows how to play us. I just watch for their bullish intentions. Yes, they may be giving false bullish signals now to set a trap for a fall in PM stocks, but that is what they want. To move stock from weak hands to theirs.

    Normally I watch for a green candle before I go big in a stock or ETF. I can only wish they can gap down gold tomorrow so I can initiate my positions. I have one in RBY. For now, I am just watching their moves with interest.

    My error was to take my eye off natural gas (and to take a week away form the stock market) That was one heck of a sweet swing trade. No regrets as it is now showing possible weakness and there a thousands of possible trades.

    You know the trades I want don't come along every day. Sometimes you sit in cash for 30 days waiting for a set-up. That is just how I trade which is not for everyone.

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  160. FUD - "FUD"ging: CB you are so correct about the GDP numbers - what can we believe.

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  161. CP- Thanks for the CRYP link. Could be...

    BTW, I think BC wrote today's PCR.

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  162. Copper still trading above $3, can gold catch up?

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  163. CI,

    I have always liked RBY, and had planned 2 days ago to hold till around $4.00, but I worry if I hang on with spikes like that I'll end up getting shaken off on a downswoop instead. The way things are going lately, they could potentially scare gold down to $1145 pretty easily, so on a pullback, I'll be looking to reload.

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  164. "High-speed rail links to be doubled by 2012
    By Xin Dingding (China Daily)
    Updated: 2010-07-29 13:43
    Country already has longest track network in the world

    BEIJING - China will spend 800 billion yuan ($120 billion) as part of an ambitious plan to double its high-speed rail network by 2012, the Ministry of Railways said on Wednesday.

    The sum will be invested to lay more than 6,000 km of new high-speed tracks across the country, pushing the total length of high-speed railways to 13,000 km by 2012, Yu Bangli, chief economist with the Ministry of Railways, said at a press conference. "

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-07/29/content_11067205.htm

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  165. "Urbanization expected to fuel economy
    By Hu Yuanyuan (China Daily)
    Updated: 2010-07-30 06:43
    Beijing - Accelerated urbanization can keep the country's economy on the fast track for another 15 to 20 years, as more than half of its population will live in cities and towns by 2015, a top Chinese think tank said on Thursday.

    The country's urbanization rate will hit 52 percent in 2015 and grow to 65 percent by 2030, the annual report on urban development by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) showed.

    By the end of last year, the urbanization rate already hit 46.6 percent, with 620 million people living in cities and towns, the CASS reported."

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-07/30/content_11071110.htm

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  166. "China to finance $2.6b Bahamian resort: rpt 2010-07-29 13:51:39

    China has agreed to let two State-owned agencies finance a stalled $2.6 billion Bahamian resort project that the developer said would provide the biggest job stimulus the Bahamas have ever seen."

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  167. CB: Thanks for you thoughts. Your plan makes sense for the position size that you held.

    You are only a click away from buying it back again.

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