Sunday, July 4, 2010
7/5/10 Follow Me, Not
Follow me where I go, what I do, and who I know
Make it part of you, to be a part of me
Follow me up and down, all the way and all around
vb- I'm not a fan.
The longer I trade, the more I learn to trust my own instincts. 'Listening' to others informs my trading, and listening to certain bloggers on a regular basis is a valuable part of my trading arsenal.
Being a 'fan' implies a great deal of respect, which I reserve for those who are not necessarily always correct, but rather always honest. Anyone who needs to be right most of the time (worse, needs to be recognized for being right most of the time), is unlikely to fall into that category.
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My 'take' right now is Asia closes red. And Europe opens red.
ReplyDeleteAsia essentially closed flat, and European indexes seem to be flat as well.
ReplyDeleteThat gives my 'take' a 24-hr reprieve.
In the absence of any positive catalysts, I don't think investors will be looking to buy on Tuesday. I think they'll be looking to sell.
ReplyDelete2nd - every time i read prechter / roubini / rosenberg /etc it scares the shit out of me. then i try to remind myself that a lot of those guys have been bearish since what? 1987? but it doesn't hurt to look at the way the markets traded back in the early 1930's and consider that the same could be happening right now. it might just be a little more drawn out. there was a major crash, then a rally, then a slow and steady fall where every subsequent rally failed at the prior support levels. so far in this correction this has held true. the exception is the activity back in early May when the Europe bailout package was announced, which i consider to be a bunch of noise. but the rally in mid June failed right around the closing lows from early May. if this trend continues then we could probably see a fall down to 950 to 1000 with a rebound to the 1,050ish level.
ReplyDeleteand if it continues then the 1,050ish level would act as resistance and we would see further downside.
ReplyDeletei'm probably being dumb in dipping my toes in the water here. i should probably be just staying in cash until we get a clear signal that the downturn has ended, which in my mind is when the markets go at least 3% above the 200 DMA.
tof- Your portfolio performance kicked --- last year relative to the prevailing sentiment on both blogs that we refer to here. I would stick with what works/worked.
ReplyDeleteTOF - I pretty much agree, the fundamentals don't seem to be any reason for enthusiasm.
ReplyDeleteIt's safe to say equities were overbought but now considering the level of cash in corporate coffers, my question is if equities aren't a tad oversold here.
Oversold can become more oversold just as the inverse is true, and I don't see what looks like capitulation yet(assuming that's something we should be anticipating)...
KEEPING UP A BRAVE FACE
ReplyDeleteAs Megan Glaros, the big-titted blonde daytime weather woman on CBS NY who I am in love with stood on a sunny streetcorner in Newark, New Jersey, she held a heat meter in her hand and announced enthusiastically that the temperature in the sun was 141 degrees F, but that it was only about 100 in the shade. A hundred and forty one! Wow. She said it felt like her makeup was melting off her face. Her very pretty face, I might add. There she stood, smiling secrets never dreamed of by Victoria, in front of a line of black teenagers baking on a sidewalk, waiting for a public swimming pool to open in an hour or so, sweating their balls off.
She then described this week's expected high temperatures, a hundred maybe more, the're not sure, with ooh's and aah's as though she were describing something good and desirable, instead of something deadly and disturbing.
God I am in love with this woman.
The point though is, what will they say when it's 115, 120 degrees with no ozone layer?
Will they say "Great day to go to the beach, don't forget your lead-lined suit":)
On that note, my next pot of coffee will be Raines double-dip.
ReplyDeleteOn that note, I'm going to spray on SPF 30 and whack a few weeds.
ReplyDelete1980 - Gold fell 54% in 19 months. The previous peak was $850, the recent 2010 peak was $410 higher for a gain of 48% in 30 years.
ReplyDeleteSPF 30 - I hope that crap doesn't absorb into your skin and contaminate your bloodstream. I'm pretty sure my Raines DD probably contains some level of pesticide or other hydrocarbon contaminant...
ReplyDeleteI just read that Bill Cara is giving the ol' foggy ball a rest for a week.
ReplyDeleteChina:
ReplyDelete"Heavy Industries
June consumption growth eased “sharply” on a high comparison base last year and as demand from heavy industries showed signs of slowing, Shanghai Securities News said, citing energy authorities it didn’t name. Demand growth in July and August may also slow “significantly,” the newspaper said.
China’s property prices will likely see a correction in about three months’ time, the Securities Times cited Land and Resources Minister Xu Shaoshi as saying.
Last week, the government’s manufacturing index fell more than economists forecast to the lowest level in 16 months, excluding a Lunar New Year-affected February 2010. A non- manufacturing index released by the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on July 3 slid to 57.4 from 62.7 in May. "
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-05/china-s-weaker-growth-in-car-sales-services-adds-to-signs-economy-cooling.html
"Jan-May coal imports jump 114%
ReplyDelete(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-07-05 13:40
China's coal imports surged 114.3 percent year-on-year to 68.98 million tons in the January-May period on the back of strong industrial demand, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said Monday.
In a statement posted on its website, the MIIT attributed the increased demand to the power, steel, cement and chemical fertilizer industries."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-07/05/content_10065527.htm
"Money
ReplyDeleteChina's stocks drop to 15-mth low Monday
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2010-07-05 16:40
Chinese shares fell Monday, with the benckmark index down 0.8 percent to hit 15-month low, led by coal and non-ferrous metal producers."
I see the beach area lot I was looking at has sold.
ReplyDelete"Romer Says White House Doesn't See Signs of a Double Dip"
ReplyDeleteThe WH also didn't see the coming depression or the giant housing bubble.
Established an initial position in ECU.to. Bought 5,000 at 0.610. I was willing to pay an additional 0.01 to get a fill on my order. Spreads on these penny stocks are just awful. Move the decimal two places and a bid/ask of .61/.62 is 61.00/62.00.
ReplyDeleteSo David, I don't know if it is going to go up or down. But you can't play the game if you don't have some skin in it I suppose.
Down and out? - We may be down but I'm not out!
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