A sharp drop is around the corner. Call it a premonition. It's as if the sound of one's footsteps on the pavement fades away to be replaced by a barely discernible aura.
2nd - i think we will have a slow steady drop instead of a sharp one just because i think the powers that be having gotten scared shitless since that drop in early May.
(remind me again why I went long on Thursday/Friday...)
rainy humid day in orlando. but, on a good note, my eyeballs are resting from the sunburn they got last week.
so 2nd my lover, please don't take offense to me saying, BC is on my fan list. A fan is not a hero, it is just someone who I think deserves some recognition for the many hours they spend giving and sharing on a blog. He isnt' always right in fact, I was there when he called the bull right before the big crash. But, he has not made that big of a boo boo again. Thank god for shark and cp and maybe you who taught me how to dig out!
I hope you forgive me if I offended you. Just trying to spread some happiness around. I just want some peace.
2nd - yes, i'm only 10% long in my long only account. I'm long PIR too and will probably get stopped out of that sucker. i suspected a bounce at around 1,000 so maybe I'll still be right here in the next few days.
If I were 10% long, the way I would play it is to keep the position as a hedge.
(a) We may not get the sharp drop to begin with. (b) Should we get a sharp drop, it may well be followed by a sharp spike. (c) Either way, a restest of 1040-1050 is probably in order.
Basically, you followed one of the soundest 'rules' of the game- keeping position size small when countertrend. That leaves you a multitude of options.
2nd - i like David's strategy. I'm not entirely against taking risks if I can lose only 5% and potentially gain 20%. It's just that the potential of losing 5% right out of the gate tends to screw with one's mind.
I didn't know the Aussie government had huge budget deficits:
"Australia backs off 40% mining supertax
By Robert Gibbens, Montreal Gazette July 2, 2010
Australia has finally backed away from its proposed 40-per-cent supertax on all mining companies - but the industry's major players will still have to pay more.
The new prime minister, Julia Gillard, said Friday the new tax will apply only to the booming iron ore and coal industries, while exempting such metals as nickel, gold, copper and uranium that are less profitable. The new rules will replace the state-by-state royalty system.
To offset any reduction in revenue, the basic company tax rate will be 29 per cent, up from 28 per cent under the budget proposal by the previous prime minister, Kevin Judd. Iron ore and coal are Australia's biggest export industries, benefiting from Asia's voracious demand for resources and strong prices.
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group, parent of Canada's Alcan, and Xstrata welcomed the new rules, saying it represents "very significant progress toward a minerals taxation regime that satisfies the industry's core principles."
The companies had said Judd's proposals would have cost Australia jobs as mining investment sagged because of lower returns,.though they had expected some increase in taxation to help reduce the government's massive budget deficit."
SEOUL- A South Korean consortium led by Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO) has acquired five Australian coal fields worth a total of A$580-million ($488,2-million) from Anglo American, the state-run utility said on Monday.
Canadian Investor: looks like your initial position in ECU is rather small, which is a good way to start. John Hussman had repeated his warning tonight about precious metals (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100706.htm):
"Again, I don't think the long-term thesis for precious metals is wrong, but near-term concerns of investors are more likely to involve deflation, which may make for some serious discomfort for precious metals investors."
If gold drops 20% from here starting now, then ECU might go to pieces. On the other hand, if gold can stay afloat for a few months longer, then ECU might rocket at some point this summer, and then not even a weakness in gold will bring it down.
Well, let me be the first to admit that my premonition was wrong. I could say something along the lines of not having yet reached the point where I can see around the corner, but how helpful would that be?
7:55AM Taseko Mines: Panel findings consistent with Taseko expectations and in-line with provincial approval (TGB) 3.92 : Yesterday, the Federal Review Panel, established for the purpose of conducting a review of the environmental effects of TGB's Prosperity Gold-Copper Project, has submitted its report to the Government of Canada. The Panel findings are very similar to the conclusions reached in the Provincial environmental assessment process - that the loss of Fish Lake and adjacent meadows constitutes a significant adverse effect.
BWEN - Now we know why BWEN was on the move last week...
7:15AM On The Wires : Gamesa Technology Corp., a wholly owned U.S. subsidiary of Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica, a global manufacturer of wind turbine generators with headquarters in Spain and operations in the U.S., Europe, China and India has selected Tower Tech, a subsidiary of Broadwind Energy (BWEN), to supply structural wind towers for wind sites in the United States for installation in the second half of 2010.
TGB - The permit had been granted back in January but I'm pretty sure the Indian tribal grounds subject is the real issue, apparently this tribe has been quite successful at protecting their lands from corporate intrusion.
Not sure if there are any examples of the revocation of permits previously granted concerning other properties for the sake of tribal concerns though.
Personally, sounds like a risky bet to me but could maybe play a bounce for a short trade. I'm not up for that on this one, the world could probably make do without the gold.
It's like throwing a green chip on the '12.' Not a smart bet 99% of the time.
ReplyDelete2nd - i think we will have a slow steady drop instead of a sharp one just because i think the powers that be having gotten scared shitless since that drop in early May.
ReplyDelete(remind me again why I went long on Thursday/Friday...)
You're only 10% long, no? That barely qualifies as 'long.' More of a hedge, maybe.
ReplyDeleteNikkei opens down -1.17%, at 9158...
ReplyDeleterainy humid day in orlando. but, on a good note, my eyeballs are resting from the sunburn they got last week.
ReplyDeleteso 2nd my lover, please don't take offense to me saying, BC is on my fan list. A fan is not a hero, it is just someone who I think deserves some recognition for the many hours they spend giving and sharing on a blog. He isnt' always right in fact, I was there when he called the bull right before the big crash. But, he has not made that big of a boo boo again. Thank god for shark and cp and maybe you who taught me how to dig out!
I hope you forgive me if I offended you. Just trying to spread some happiness around. I just want some peace.
I wasn't offended. Just stating my POV, which was not aligned with yours.
ReplyDeleteNikkei now -1.43%...
ReplyDelete-1.62%...
ReplyDeleteES changing hands at 1008...
ReplyDelete1006.50...
ReplyDeleteNikkei bounces to -1.45%...
ReplyDeleteES 1004...
ReplyDeleteDJIA futes -81...
ReplyDelete1003.60...
ReplyDelete...only to fall back to -1.74%...
ReplyDeleteMan...What a great 3 day weekend. Lot's of sports/pool/sun/family and fireworks!! What more could a completely immature 46 year old ask for!
ReplyDeleteWould love to see a print below 1000 to see how the market reacts.
ES touches 1002.75 before bouncing to 1005...
ReplyDelete10-yr notes +0.40%
ReplyDeleteAnd more fireworks the rest of the week...
ReplyDeleteNikkei now below 9100...
ReplyDeleteBounces to 9101...
ReplyDelete9112...
ReplyDelete9121- we have bids
ReplyDelete666...999. If nothing else, interesting symmetry.
ReplyDelete666-999 Yes, that is interesting. Only mildly though, what else can I say at this point...
ReplyDeleteWhat about [toke], what about [toke, toke] the fact that 666 is exactly 66.6% of 999?
ReplyDelete9136...
ReplyDelete2nd - yes, i'm only 10% long in my long only account. I'm long PIR too and will probably get stopped out of that sucker. i suspected a bounce at around 1,000 so maybe I'll still be right here in the next few days.
ReplyDeleteIf I were 10% long, the way I would play it is to keep the position as a hedge.
ReplyDelete(a) We may not get the sharp drop to begin with.
(b) Should we get a sharp drop, it may well be followed by a sharp spike.
(c) Either way, a restest of 1040-1050 is probably in order.
If this keeps up, I'll start to do some real buying this week.
ReplyDeleteBasically, you followed one of the soundest 'rules' of the game- keeping position size small when countertrend. That leaves you a multitude of options.
ReplyDeleteAnother option is what David refers to as 'lateral transfer.'
ReplyDeleteShould we drop -10%, and a bounce seems imminent- you could simply switch the 1x short to a 3x long and be back above water in no time...
On the other hand, had you taken a 100% long position (worse, 300% long), you would be stuck with deciding on ways to kill the pain.
ReplyDeleteCorrection- I meant to say ramp up your long position to an ultralong...
ReplyDeleteI actually like the "lateral move". Takes correct position sizing and a certain degree of patience.
ReplyDeleteShanghai up +0.73%...
ReplyDelete2nd - i like David's strategy. I'm not entirely against taking risks if I can lose only 5% and potentially gain 20%. It's just that the potential of losing 5% right out of the gate tends to screw with one's mind.
ReplyDeletein looking at the action in world markets it sure looks like a rally is setting up. check out the action in the Aussie index:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXASX:.AXJO
ES dips to 1102. Perhaps just a little taste that will leave bulls in the pen waiting for it to hit ONE more time?
ReplyDeleteYeah, yeah...1002.
ReplyDeleteAustralia - Looks like they caved on the mining super tax. Don't know the details yet, looking for them.
ReplyDeleteI think we'll follow Shanghai's lead, be it up or down.
I didn't know the Aussie government had huge budget deficits:
ReplyDelete"Australia backs off 40% mining supertax
By Robert Gibbens, Montreal Gazette July 2, 2010
Australia has finally backed away from its proposed 40-per-cent supertax on all mining companies - but the industry's major players will still have to pay more.
The new prime minister, Julia Gillard, said Friday the new tax will apply only to the booming iron ore and coal industries, while exempting such metals as nickel, gold, copper and uranium that are less profitable. The new rules will replace the state-by-state royalty system.
To offset any reduction in revenue, the basic company tax rate will be 29 per cent, up from 28 per cent under the budget proposal by the previous prime minister, Kevin Judd. Iron ore and coal are Australia's biggest export industries, benefiting from Asia's voracious demand for resources and strong prices.
BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto Group, parent of Canada's Alcan, and Xstrata welcomed the new rules, saying it represents "very significant progress toward a minerals taxation regime that satisfies the industry's core principles."
The companies had said Judd's proposals would have cost Australia jobs as mining investment sagged because of lower returns,.though they had expected some increase in taxation to help reduce the government's massive budget deficit."
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Australia+backs+mining+supertax/3228975/story.html
Yeah, the All Ordinaries has now turned green, which may bode well for Tuesday's open on Wall St...
ReplyDeleteillini- If you see this, I was wondering if your still in TBT?
ReplyDeleteWell, to be honest- I just can't see a bullish scenario right now. But since I'm wrong over half the time, it doesn't really mean anything.
ReplyDeleteI'll be up in the pre-dawn darkness. See y'all then.
ReplyDeleteTGB - Man, Taseko was absolutely stoned...
ReplyDeleteTOF- The one thing that scares me about PIR is tax selling. Man, there could be tons of profit out there if enough traders played that one correctly.
ReplyDeletequite a turnaround for the markets.
ReplyDeleteMy guess? LOY was in for the ES.
ReplyDeleteBy: Reuters
ReplyDelete5th July 2010
SEOUL- A South Korean consortium led by Korea Electric Power Corp (KEPCO) has acquired five Australian coal fields worth a total of A$580-million ($488,2-million) from Anglo American, the state-run utility said on Monday.
Canadian Investor: looks like your initial position in ECU is rather small, which is a good way to start. John Hussman had repeated his warning tonight about precious metals
ReplyDelete(http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100706.htm):
"Again, I don't think the long-term thesis for precious metals is wrong, but near-term concerns of investors are more likely to involve deflation, which may make for some serious discomfort for precious metals investors."
If gold drops 20% from here starting now, then ECU might go to pieces. On the other hand, if gold can stay afloat for a few months longer, then ECU might rocket at some point this summer, and then not even a weakness in gold will bring it down.
Where We Are Today: Interest Rates 'Too High,' Double Dip on Deck, the Failure of Economics
ReplyDeletehttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
David may be interested in the Taylor Rule and how it relates to his use of the AMB (?) data.
4th of July at the beach.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/4303301f-6615-494d-a7cc-4b00444c8fe8
If the US does take the same path as Japan (possible but not certain)this chart could indicate that real estate prices have further to fall.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/49775c94-a401-483b-87ee-9237b3994562
full article
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/06/17/grantham-on-the-australian-housing-market/
"David may be interested in the Taylor Rule and how it relates to his use of the AMB (?) data."
ReplyDeleteI am not so sophisticated, T3d. :)
tof- A turnaround indeed!
ReplyDeleteWell, let me be the first to admit that my premonition was wrong. I could say something along the lines of not having yet reached the point where I can see around the corner, but how helpful would that be?
ES now at 1025...
shark- Palladium futes up +2.47%.
ReplyDelete"(remind me again why I went long on Thursday/Friday...)"
ReplyDelete"I suspected a bounce at around 1,000 so maybe I'll still be right here in the next few days."
As the ES hit 1002.50 last night, and is now at 1026, I would say YOUR premonition was right on.
Now it's MY posts that are 'disappearing.'
ReplyDeletetest....
ReplyDelete"(remind me again why I went long on Thursday/Friday...)"
ReplyDeletetof- Given that the ES bounced off 1002.50 and is now at 1025, I would say you made a good move.
btw, my previous 3-4 posts have all disappeared into the ether, and this one may as well....
TGB - This from InPlay...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay
7:55AM Taseko Mines: Panel findings consistent with Taseko expectations and in-line with provincial approval (TGB) 3.92 : Yesterday, the Federal Review Panel, established for the purpose of conducting a review of the environmental effects of TGB's Prosperity Gold-Copper Project, has submitted its report to the Government of Canada. The Panel findings are very similar to the conclusions reached in the Provincial environmental assessment process - that the loss of Fish Lake and adjacent meadows constitutes a significant adverse effect.
BWEN - Now we know why BWEN was on the move last week...
ReplyDelete7:15AM On The Wires : Gamesa Technology Corp., a wholly owned U.S. subsidiary of Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica, a global manufacturer of wind turbine generators with headquarters in Spain and operations in the U.S., Europe, China and India has selected Tower Tech, a subsidiary of Broadwind Energy (BWEN), to supply structural wind towers for wind sites in the United States for installation in the second half of 2010.
new post
ReplyDeletePXP off @ 21.37. Have to take the 4.5% return. I hope to re-enter at a lower price today.
ReplyDeleteAnyone else notice comments from last night are missing? I know at least one of mine is.
ReplyDeleteGold still falling, Euro must be regaining some popularity.
ReplyDeleteTGB - The permit had been granted back in January but I'm pretty sure the Indian tribal grounds subject is the real issue, apparently this tribe has been quite successful at protecting their lands from corporate intrusion.
ReplyDeleteNot sure if there are any examples of the revocation of permits previously granted concerning other properties for the sake of tribal concerns though.
Personally, sounds like a risky bet to me but could maybe play a bounce for a short trade. I'm not up for that on this one, the world could probably make do without the gold.