Wednesday, July 7, 2010
7/8/10 The 'No Show' Trader/ The Healing Game
If I were to give an interview, I'd come across just like Morrison.
I'm an introvert, I have stage fright, and since I'm not doing well making calls right now, I'm going to have to return to my trading roots and figure out what's going on.
Down those ancient streets
Down those ancient roads
Where nobody knows
Where nobody goes
I'm back on the corner again
Where I've always been
Never been away
From the healing game
That last trade in TZA was a mistake. I did, however, manage to close in the green for the day. By $38.
I'll be back Thursday or Friday to jump-start my trading game.
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farfetched: RE Rosenberg:
ReplyDeleteI guess i just have heard him be bearish for so long that I wonder if he refuses to accept anything other than his own view point:
8/6/09: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1207226929&play=1
7/7/09: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1174036163&play=1
His skepticism prevented anyone from making money off the 14 month rally after the March 2009 lows. But maybe that is just it, that he doesn't care about one year or two year movements. Maybe he is only making 5 year to 10 year calls??? I think those types of calls are very hard to make, though. I'd rather focus on what is going on in the next 6 months to a year. If the past 10 years have taught us anything, it's that things can change quickly.
Changed my mind and decided not to buy HNU.to. Seems there is ample inventory and there was no spike last week in anticipation of the HEATWAVE here in the NE. My opinion it is more likely to go down then up. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteHEU.to spiked up hard today. 6.10%. Oil equities the better play here?
Oil up another 1%. Perhaps that mini break out today will hold.
ReplyDeleteCI- Trading the oil heavy players is always "safer" than the gas guys.
So what happened today? My guess is a triple play. First STT pre-announces, a big deal. Just ask TOF. CC delinquencies are the lowest since 2002. Mainly driven by banks writing off bad debt. This adds fuel to STT's news. Then retail sales come in strong. I disagree with Cara's take on this. BTW....do you guys remember when BC (the stock) was trading at 10 bucks and Cara was outraged? Well it only went to 23.
ReplyDeleteCheers!!
I remember well when BC was trading @ $10 and he was trying to short it. In fact, we had a brief personal conversation that night on CC where Bill asked us to do a little leg work and what we thought about it. He kinda left us hanging and didn't even thank us for our opinions. I thought he was pretty rude about it.
ReplyDeleteTGB - Could be the market thinks the prosperity mine permitting will be successful. If so, we're talking another TCK-like success story...
ReplyDeleteJJG - Has broken out of the downtrend.
ReplyDeleteMark - The market has been looking for something to rally it. All it took was STT in my mind to get the juices flowing. So I think you're right. I suspect decent retail sales will add a little fuel to the fire tomorrow. I could be regretting my decision to sell PIR (or I could have avoided a big fall) but I still have some skin in the game with STT and SPY. I don't really like those extra large positions that are akin to calling black or white.
ReplyDeleteI see that the IWM futures are down slightly now, which is what I had expected when I bought 200 shares of TWM at $23 and then 200 more after hours at $22.80. I have already mentioned that I placed a sell stop limit order for 200 shares at $22.80/22.75, and just now I decided to place a sell limit order for the other 200 shares at $23.30, in case we only get a small dip tomorrow at the open and then the rally resumes.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter at all if you are right long term, or how right you are, because nobody can take the pain in the meantime.
ReplyDeleteSmart Trends:
ReplyDeleteMost bank stocks benefitted from the optimistic preannouncement from State Street bank, which, while not impacted by pending financial reform, is large enough to engender hope that other banks will report similar bullish outlooks starting next week. Still, the daily SmarTrend(R) uptrends to downtrends were biased to the downside at 14:36, reflecting a lessening of selling pressure but still consistent with a bearish longer-term outlook. The IBDI edged up a notch, but the Trend Ratio deteriorated further. The IBDI has moved up from being oversold, but the Trend Ratio has further room to move down before recovering. These two indicators signal a continuing downtrend by the intermediate-term trend acting as a drag on stock prices; and along with the long-term downtrend, now only three days old, but likely to last for months, the investing environment for long stocks is anticipated to remain unattractive for the foreseeable future.
For the last few days, the trading environment trends were moving into positions to launch a near-term rally from consolidated bases in their oversold zones. Three of four near-term trend indicators began to rise up together yesterday, and the near-term trend rally expected here day before yesterday was confirmed. Unfortunately, the DJIA is likely to encounter mild resistance as it tries to surmount 10,100 and more serious resistance when it moves up to the 10,300 level, expected later this month.
Yesterday in this report one of two unknowns mentioned were upcoming corporate earnings reports. It is still unknown whether the welcome relief from recent gloomy economic news by yesterday's preannouncement by State Street bank will be a harbinger of more good outlooks to come. Generally, in regard to bank stocks, various reports that European banks will pass stress tests when reported in two weeks and that the European Union is taking steps to reign in exorbitant bank executive compensation are bolstering the hope that financial stocks can lead a rally that reverses bearish longer-term trends. This remains to be seen; in the meantime, look for initial jobless claims and consumer credit reports today, discussed below, to temper trade-term uptrend enthusiasm by reminding investors that all is not rosy in the two-thirds of the economy driven by consumer purchases. The ongoing bear market rally over the next two weeks is expected to have plenty of sharp intra and inter day gyrations likely in response to earnings reports that end up being collectively perceived as mixed as they had been hoped encouraging. The rise to DJIA 10,300 should provide ample opportunity for long stock holders to move to cash and prepare to profit from the bear market expected to continue when the current trading environment rally has run its course. To review the list of stocks changing trends recently, please visit MySmartrend.com.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI have posted a chart study on PAL as I think some of you (CP) hold this stock. Looks like I will be buying PAL listed on TSX PDL.to. Click on my ID above to see the charts.
ReplyDeleteI have posted an updated chart study on ECU. Click on my ID above to see the charts. I currently have a small position.
ReplyDeleteI have posted a chart study on RIM/RIMM. Click on my ID above to see the charts. I don't have a buy on this yet. Possible buy in the next week?
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
Ouch. I hate short covering rallies in the summertime.
In spite of the bounce from oversold, so far, the market only appears to be pulling back. In other words, the big blue arrow still points down.
Since my methodology is centered around the pullback, I'm seeing a plethora of setups in a variety of areas including but not limited to Health Services, Internet, Software, Retail, Drugs, Leisure, Transports, Media, Manufacturing, and the Semis. We'll talk about all this later today in the chart show.
Nice work on the charts CI. Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteBased on what I see right now, not planning to 'show up' today. Consider myself fortunate to be in 100% cash (and at the high of the year despite being off my game).
ReplyDeleteI ran through a few ideas lying awake in bed last night, which I'll share once I organize my thoughts.
I notice 1:5 splits in some of the ultrashorts- which will undoubtedly throw off a few traders.
ReplyDeleteThanks Mark. The web pages and graphics were the hard part. Had to do some reading to find how to code in HTML and how to manipulate graphis. It is like using a screwdriver to hammer a nail. It is not perfect, but it did the job for now. lol
ReplyDeleteI just find a picture is a lot more descriptive of what I am thinking.
Lastly, the people here are providing some ideas for me, so I try to share my amateur and humble ideas. Anyone, please be critical or helpful by providing feedback or your own trading ideas. Thank you.
Man oh man- killer short squeeze...
ReplyDeletetook pal profitz
ReplyDeleteI was reading SOH last night. TK 'added to' his short positions into yesterday's rally. Without being sarcastic, I can honestly say I'm impressed with his pain tolerance.
ReplyDelete3.22
ReplyDeleteAren't rallies the sharpest in bear markets? I think building short positions now up to the 200 DMA would be a smart move. However, I'd rather wait for a gap open then close lower before doing so. Maybe that happens today?
ReplyDeleteFD:
Still long STT, SPY, and NLS but mostly in cash.
PXP off at 21.85. Why? All of the other gas E&P guys are under preforming and wanted to book a nice gain. I suspect PXP will align with it's peers later today where I will re-load.
ReplyDeleteHats off to tof/Mark/shark- Obviously, I did not believe for a second that we would rally yesterday and today. Not only that, I wasn't willing to put any money on my 'take.' The fact that all three of you bet contrarian cash is quite impressive!
ReplyDeleteX is rolling over.
ReplyDeleteThanks 2nd.
ReplyDeleteTook a quick flyer on TZA, just for the hell of it. Very small position. Opened at 38.20, off at 39.09. Just enough to make me feel like I'm 'back on the corner again.'
ReplyDeleteNo respite for bears.
ReplyDeleteThis is usually a loser, but I added to UNG @ 7.50.
ReplyDeletenice work 2nd. that's a 2+% move right there.
ReplyDeleteAnd 7.39. OK..I hold this through next week and see what happens.
ReplyDeleteHmm, looks like 10,100/1070 didn't stick this morning. This drawn out flopping up and down certainly tests one's patience.
ReplyDeleteCome on 1070!
CI Thanks for posting the charts, I'll take a look once I've got the coffee gurgling and duckies fed...
As an FYI, in Windows a shift+print screen copies your screen contents to scratchpad and MS paint + paste enables you to save as a file which can be posted (no need for HTML coding) but if you've already got it whipped, then carry-on my friend!
I still have PAL/GMO/CADC and need them to start moving up, it's taking entirely too long to get back to where they were (ha, ha!).
Alright, maybe I'll sell something in order to raise cash for the next dip...
by the way, TLT sure looks like it's in a bull market:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TLT+Interactive#chart1:symbol=tlt;range=2y;indicator=sma(50,200,20)+dividend+volume+rsi;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
any retest of the 200 DMA probably should be bought. Why didn't we focus on this back in early / mid May?
PXP back on @ 21.51.
ReplyDeleteGold tanking hard here again, Euro flying or what??? Hard for me to comprehend how gold has any reason to move downward considering practically the entire globe aside from a few countries are in deep debt doo-doo.
ReplyDeleteOff @ 21.50...Looking again across the board, the other guys are way off today. I'll see what it looks like near the close.
ReplyDeletechicken - i think the specter of austerity spreading across the globe has gold bugs really worried. i would be too, but then again i've never really been into the gold trade.
ReplyDeleteTLT - My theory is the buying has been steered by FED policy of keeping rates low, government debt financed, and attempt to kick-start housing market. The missing component is jobs and confidence in the markets while the regulatory constipation in WDC needs a quapruple-dose of softener.
ReplyDeleteBP's recklessness hasn't helped one iota.
I say the eventual energy moves will be nuclear and conservation. Personally, I question the notion nuclear is carbon friendly, the construction and mining processes uses fossil fuels. 20% of US electricity is generated by nuclear plants, which is quite an accomplishment when one considers none have been built in decades...
TOF - I suppose austerity must be it, gold bugs keep saying gold outperforms in deflation but I have yet to observe evidence of that, or what specifically is their benchmark. My observation refers to the definition of deflation, which tells me U$D/T's are the outperformers. Yuan too I would think, if it were traded in free markets.
ReplyDeleteXOM presentation 070810
ReplyDeleteThe event was unremarkable, basically showing the assets of the XTO buy and its integration.
XTO hedged NG through 2011 will just let be and end all hedging from that point consistent with their current policy of being happy with exposure to price.
Unit cost 1.69 kcfe
Questions answered:
Does not see NG prices rising sharply, but they do not share their internal price projections for NG.
Offshore drilling is high risk; high reward will complete current projects for assessment and see no dramatic change going forward.
TNH looks interesting started a position at 68.81. Yields 10.43% insiders own 74% per finviz
PAIN, I love PAIN.
NLY - I'd thought NLY would've sold off by now, guess I'll have to look and see what's going on there...
ReplyDeleteLooks like I got shaken today out of my most valuable position: XHB short at $14.65. I tried to re-open that short when I woke up, but no shares were available for shorting...
ReplyDeleteAlso, this morning the sell stop limit order was triggered at $22.75 for 200 shares of TWM I picked up yesterday at $22.80.
Finally, I just sold my last 100 shares of SKF at $21.89 so as to make room for buying more HNUZF -- I placed a buy limit order at $5.3 for 500 shares.
The current administration is kind to the big banks, but they are less kind to the small business segment, and so I'll be pressing the short side now by buying TWM. I placed a buy stop order at $23 for 200 shares and at $23.50 for 400 shares. I already have 400 shares of it.
This rally up to 1,070 was so fast that it suggests to me we're still in the bearish phase of this market because sharp rallies tend to occur in bear markets. I'm still staying long but I suspect we fail just below the 50 DMA, which would probably be around 1,080.
ReplyDeleteThe market seems to be rolling over. Just bought 200 shares of TWM at $22.85.
ReplyDeleteIn looking at past death crosses, the first death cross in a bull market of more than a year almost never ends up being the start of a long bear market. A perfect corollary to today's market (I think) is the 1939 period. If we mirror that period then this downdraft could culminate in a capitulation at around 940. I think that's a really good possibility if earnings don't come in quite as well as bulls hope.
ReplyDeleteThat could mark a solid trading bottom. Activity in 1940 is not the greatest period to compare to because WWII started then and cause a significant drop in the markets so I would ignore that period.
Bought 300 shares of TZA at $39.70 for a day trade.
ReplyDeleteSo far TZA has a recent intraday pattern of higher lows. If, however, it drops to $39.40 from here, that pattern would be broken. So I just placed a sell stop limit order for these 300 shares at $39.40/39.37.
ReplyDeleteCan't really make a call here. T's still off though.
ReplyDeleteKeeping an eye on my TSLA/AONE combo. Might have found a bottom???
ReplyDeleteCE is one baby that is having a solid follow through day.
ReplyDeleteAnd one that didn't have a good follow through day, RAX.
ReplyDeleteOK, I got stopped out of my TZA at $39.40 for a $90 loss. My intuition did not work out this time. I just placed a buy stop limit order for the same number of shares at $39.40/39.42, so as to jump back in if TZA starts moving back up again.
ReplyDeleteGuess what? While I was typing the above message, TZA reversed the evil spike down with a moonshot, and I re-entered my position at $39.40. I am placing a sell stop limit at $39.40 again.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investmentu.com/2010/July/five-reasons-why-the-s-and-p-500-will-hit-1350.html
ReplyDeleteHere is a bullish article.
By the way, I was thinking that if we recapture the 200 DMA and we get a significant jobs print one month, it would be a really smart move to overweight small cap retail companies. I'm thinking companies like PIR, ACMR, WNC, SCSS, NLS, and others could do quite well.
Some wild volatility in TZA has started, and I lowered my sell stop by $0.2 to $39.20, so as to get out of the range of this volatility.
ReplyDeleteTZA moved up a little, and I moved up my stop to the previous $39.40 level.
ReplyDeleteOK, stopped out of TZA once again at $39.40, still down $90 for the day on this trade. I'll probably stop here.
ReplyDeleteDavid- It's just me messing with your mind :)
ReplyDeleteJust when TZA hits my original entry at $39.70...
ReplyDeleteAnyone want to take a shot at talking me into buying something? ZZZZZZZZZZ.......
ReplyDeleteOK, as a last attempt, I am placing a buy stop limit order on TZA at $39.80/39.82, so as to catch an upside breakout, if it occurs.
ReplyDeleteWell, a downside breakout occurred in TZA instead, and so I am canceling my buy stop limit order and definitely forgetting about TZA for the day. It's been entertaining, though. :)
ReplyDeleteTOF - Another "smallish" retailer I'd been considering is TSCO... FWIW
ReplyDeleteSince the market did not roll over today, then the original reason for increasing my TWM position by 200 shares is also absent now, and so I just sold those 200 shares at $33.63 (I purchased them at $22.85). Back to a cautious stance.
ReplyDeleteOh crap, David gave up on TZA; I just know here comes trouble for me... I'm such a slug when it comes down to trading short time horizons.
ReplyDeleteI am just practicing (using small position sizes) to be a nimble trader who is trading what he sees, not what he thinks.
ReplyDeletecheck out this company: TWMC.
ReplyDeleteCompany's CEO has bought up 1,139,388 shares since October 2009
Well, the gap up had to be filled didn't it?
ReplyDeleteGap being filled - Well, that was my justification for holding my bag once I saw the morning high was being faded and I hadn't sold anything...
ReplyDeleteIt's so damn easy to make an excuse one way or the other.
PXP, maybe why acting well.
ReplyDeleteMcMoRan Expl updates in-progress exploration activities in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico (MMR) 11.47 : Co updated its shallow water Gulf of Mexico exploration activities, including indications of potential hydrocarbon bearing zones at the Blueberry Hill deep gas sidetrack location and in-progress drilling at the Davy Jones and Blackbeard East ultra-deep prospects. The Blueberry Hill #9 STK1, located on Louisiana State Lease 340 in 10 feet of water, commenced drilling on April 26, 2010 and has been drilled to a true vertical depth of 23,500 feet. McMoRan owns a 42.9 percent working interest and a 29.7 percent net revenue interest in the Blueberry Hill well. Plains Exploration & Production (PXP) holds a 47.9 percent working interest. On April 7, 2010, McMoRan commenced drilling the Davy Jones offset appraisal well on South Marsh Island Block 234, two and a half miles southwest of the discovery well, which logged 200 net feet of pay in multiple Eocene/Paleocene sands below 27,300 feet in January 2010.
Long MMR have been for awhile and sold TNH @69.80
Good thing I used stops on my intraday TZA trade...
ReplyDeleteI was planning to exit all my shorts if S&P rises above 1040 -- why did I exit only some of them but not all? There is a lesson somewhere here...
ReplyDeleteTake a look at a 3 minute chart for V/MS/JPM. About 5 minutes ago, there was a huge volume spike up and price spike down. There are tons of others. Something happened.
ReplyDeleteOK, I just covered at $14.28 my 1000 short shares of XLF that I opened at the bottom of the February sell-off at $13.80 and then stubbornly held these shares through the spike in XLF above $17. Covering at $14.28 for a manageable loss is much better than being shaken out at $16+ for an unpleasant loss.
ReplyDeleteMark - You're right. That spike shook me out of MU. Was looking for an 8.70 break.
ReplyDeleteSame as yesterday...All imbalances are on the buy side. I'll catch you guys at the bar.
ReplyDeleteNow I only have 4 SPY puts and 400 shares of TWM on the short side. I am bracketing my TWM for tomorrow as follows: a sell stop limit order at $22/21.95 for 400 shares and a buy stop limit order at $22.50/$22.55 for 200 shares. I'll let the market decide on the direction in which it wants to move.
ReplyDeleteHoly ----! Am I glad I stayed away the last few hours....
ReplyDeleteJJG - Another nice day. ;)
ReplyDeleteDavid - Exactly how can I expect to take the other side of your trades if you don't know whether your long or short????
ReplyDeleteSheesh! ;)
CP: you have the advantage of waking up earlier than me, so if you see tomorrow morning that I get shaken out in one direction, then you can jump in on the train going the other way. :)
ReplyDeleteIf SPY rises above 110, then I am closing my puts while they are still worth something. :)
ReplyDeleteHey sports fans, remind me to take a few days vacation next time I begin to have intuitive feelings about a potential rally off an 8 month low.
ReplyDeleteDuh!
On the other hand, if 1050 fails on S&P, then I am loading up with new SPY puts.
ReplyDeleteCP: Thank you for the tip. I am using a graphics program for screen capture and paint to process. When I have free time I want to program a macro to do all these steps automatically with one command. I have to think of the logic first before I can put it into command language.
ReplyDeleteIt will be a great time saver and I would be able to do more charts. Eventually I want it to be automatic from screen capture to html creation and posting to the web in one command.
HIT is breaking out.
ReplyDeleteCI - It didn't occur to me earlier but if you're coding in HTML you've probably already got a handle on the shift+printscreen function.
ReplyDeleteIt's been a few years since I've hacked out any HTML by hand, so I'm a little rusty on that one nowadays but I need to look at it again at some point for my project of streaming yahoo finance data into MS Excel as a real-time number crunching exercise.
Anyway, cheers!
tof and others.
ReplyDeletesmart trends for the past week is sayin we are now a bear trend but, they are calling for rise to 10,300 before next wave down. If true, seems like an easy play . I did buy cisco a couple of days ago and a couple of others just for a short ride to 10,300.
just gamblin that smartrends is right
vb > funny but that's what I'm playing the long side until as well. I may be cashing in on my longs tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNANO - Anybody see that move to $8 this morning? Glad I wasn't long there...
ReplyDeleteWhich one of you guys upgraded Anadarko with a target of $99,999? Man, I'm always late to the party...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteCI - Great work on those PAL charts, thank you. Helps to fill in some of the blanks, sometimes (okay, often) I have a strong Mr. Magoo feeling about stocks.
ReplyDeleteShit intraday the market looks like it is ready to bounce actually.
ReplyDelete