Sorry about this guys. Perhaps we should all open chrome to post. I closed PXP @ 21.37 for a 4.5% return. I have a order to replace those shares @ 20.06. Man, I saw a lot of good comments that went poof.
TOF- Last night I commented on PIR that the one thing that scares me is the potential tax selling for traders who played this right from last year. GL!!!
Mark - I hear you on tax selling but the stock is "only" up 20% YTD and it's only July. If I have it my way I'll be out of this trade within a week or at most a month.
ReplyDeleteTesting 1-2-3...
ReplyDeleteis this thing on?
Shark here...
ReplyDeleteTesting 123...
Mark - not sure I follow the thinking on tax selling in July. Plus, the stock is "only" up 20% YTD. As I speak, though, the stock is near its daily lows and is down on a big up day for the market.
ReplyDeleteahhh...as luck would have it i have invested in the only company (PIR) on my watch list that is down today. that's just lovely.
ReplyDeleteCompletely forgot I bought NLS at $1.49 last week. position size is small so I will continue to hold. I think today's downdraft is just an excuse to get more short sellers on board that will get stopped out above 1,040. I think this rally could get to 1,070ish.
ReplyDeleteWow. It looks like I may be way off here on my thinking. This action is quite bearish.
ReplyDelete50/200dma cross influence, doesn't mean we'll close green or red necessarily but that 1040 level didn't hold. Did we really think it would just bounce over 1040 and successfully remain above without testing us all?
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I'll bet the shorts piled on once 1040 failed.
Looking at everything I can....This is one bearish tape. However, I placed stink bids on PXP/HEK/GMO. I had no doubt we wouldn't hold 1040 that easily, but I thought we'd only give back about 1/2.
ReplyDeleteCI- Just having some fun :). I've actually done rather well this year.
CE back on my radar screen. I remember commenting the last time I sold it, it could get into the 23's. Well, here it is.
ReplyDeleteStinky on XCO.
ReplyDeleteI spoke to my friend that works in the corporate finance dept of a medium sized tech company whose customers are Intel, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Samsung, and a bunch others and he said as recently as of last week they are RAISING their revenue estimates and are continuing to hire. I was really surprised by this. He said they are on target to match pre-recession workforce levels this month.
ReplyDeleteGiven this and other comments I have read from tech companies and from the rebound in the Euro I'm going to add to my SPY index fund at the close, bringing my long in that index fund to 30% of my total cash.
If CE can't hold here, it goes to 20...
ReplyDeleteAll right....No stinky. Bidding CE @ 23.40.
ReplyDeleteThis market moves way too fast for me to be able to capture any intraday moves.
ReplyDeleteWonder if bank earnings are going to be "better than expected"?
ReplyDeleteMe thinks they will.
Maybe I should just continue with my strategy of adding 10% at every 5% drop...hmmm...
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'm plenty long at this point and would do quite well if this were a bottom. I'll need much better bargains before I'm willing to go further out on the limb.
ReplyDeleteI dare 'em....
Ok, I've decided to move more than just 10% into the S&P Index fund. I like the way it has finished and am thinking this may market may have begun bottoming out. I will have 50% of my long term account in the SPY at the close.
ReplyDeleteI also bought some STT at $33.24. At around 10 times earnings and with less risk from FinReg than banks, I think this is a good value.
this may **mark**, that is (not market)
ReplyDeleteDamn, tof. I was going to say the exact opposite...
ReplyDelete2nd - really? I don't know...the bears had every chance to really stick it to the bulls today...open up big and dip into the negative territory with every chance to close red. I think all this did was suck in more shorts who are doubting their decision to lean on the short side after a drop of 10% in 7 days and a drop of almost 20% from the highs. They're probably wondering why they could be so stupid as to short after these kinds of drops. The only reason I say this is because this was my thought process many times in the past when I shorted too late.
ReplyDeleteMy thought process:
ReplyDelete(a) More along the lines of thinking the bulls had their chance to ramp it up earlier, only to run into supply.
(b) The early morning short squeeze took out all the shorts, only to force them to reboard at higher prices. Then shook them out again. Now it's ready to go down.
2nd - That's definitely one way to look at it. The only thing I would challenge you on is that we have seen a pattern of early morning strength give way to weakness and red closes for 2 months now. This is the first one I can remember in a while where that pattern held initially but then didn't work out.
ReplyDeleteOK, I see your POV. Well, given that you have a 'stake' in this, and I don't, let's hope you're right ;)
ReplyDeleteDoes someone wants to own ECU.to:
ReplyDeleteChecking the stock just before the close and it was down and trading at $0.59.
At 3:57pm these were the Bid/Ask orders:
2 129000 0.59 0.60 71000 6
9 292500 0.58 0.61 18500 4
5 132000 0.57 0.62 21500 3
7 126000 0.56 0.63 103000 8
6 140000 0.55 0.64 54000 7
Then 3 minutes later it closed at $0.63. These were the Bid/Ask orders at the close:
1 219500 0.62 0.63 86500 5
2 228500 0.61 0.64 54000 7
4 190000 0.60 0.65 21500 7
3 369000 0.59 0.66 12500 3
9 292500 0.58 0.67 1000 1
This is getting interesting. Last Friday and yesterday ws just as lopsided.
CP, thanks, I will consider not using TinyURL.
TOF -- I wouldn't read too much into the intraday market fluctuations. Remember -- you are playing against computers here.
ReplyDeleteI met a guy this weekend who works as a trader for a bank, and he said that his job is to implement well the signals that the long-term automatic trading models are generating. For example, the model can suggest that he buys 1M shares of a stock over the next 2 weeks, and his goal is to do that without moving the price of the stock too much.
So I think we should step back here and think the kind of instructions such traders have recently been receiving. I bet the instructions are of the kind "reduce the long positions in these stocks without dropping the stock prices too much." If this is the case, then the stocks WILL move lower over time regardless of the intraday patterns, which simply reflect the timing of decisions made by such traders.
In other words, does the action over the past couple of weeks suggest the presence of a selling pressure? I think so...
ECU: today's action is typical of what I have been observing over the past weeks: sluggish action during the day with a spike up at EOD -- some one is definitely accumulating the stock now...
ReplyDeleteDavid - thats a great point and one I make mistakes on from time to time. That is, I tend to want to invest long term and focus too much on short term trends. Having said that, I feel much more comfortable going 50% long here than 2 months ago.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone have a sense of Oil prices here? I have seen HNU.to mentioned here, but I am looking at HEU.to 2x on canadian oil equities. Comments on HNU.to welcomed too.
ReplyDeleteRisk is lower now than 2 months ago, but what's changed recently (other than prices) to entice buyers?
ReplyDeleteThat's what I'm working to figure out...
I'm not Canadian, but if I were going to leg into energy nat gas wouldn't be my 1st choice b/c I haven't identified any correlations. But then, maybe that qualifies nat gas as a purely technical trade?
ReplyDeleteAs far as oil goes, it's not likely to appreciate while the global economy is slowing and vice-versa. I expect it's cheap in terms of U$D at today's price.
chicken - i don't know. it probably all comes down to earnings, which are going to kick off next week. ISMs are still positive and valuations have definitely gotten better. what if earnings don't drop as much as people are expecting? i think a 17% drop in the S&P would translate into earnings slowing significantly so if we get guidance that coincides with that then the markets will go lower.
ReplyDeleteListening to Diary OF A Madman and drinking a nice mid-range Rioja, lightly chilled.
ReplyDeleteSharon Osbourne never publically took responsibility, for obvious reasons, for not being responsible and being there and not letting Randy Rhodes go up in the plane that killed him. They should have had 3 guys 250 pounds each on Randy 24-7 making sure that not a hair on his head gets ruffled, and he goes flying with a coke fiend in a cessna and dies.
Sharon SHOULD HAVE been there to stop him/have him stopped, and that is the great failing of her career, and she fucking knows it.
Nasty selloff in PAL today. Market's still skittish. Still in PAL.
In fact, I bought more.
The hottest day in nine years here in the NY area.
ReplyDelete103 degrees in Central Park.
ReplyDeleteThanks CP. So I assume you would not buy PB now.
ReplyDeleteI am long this market and looking to add to it. About 50% cash. Gold miners are nicely correcting - no holdings. 90% of what I own are trusts and spining off about 7% (annual) income right now, so I am not hurting so far this year. I'll do a chart-study on XIU.to (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund) later this week and post the results. I am looking for a thrust up as Q2 is past and Q3 has started.
CI - Honestly, it's difficult for me to say what I'd do if I were in Loonies. These really are currency plays since the Wall Street collapse, rolled into trying to identify underpriced value.
ReplyDeleteI have GMO/CADC/PAL in my portfolio and feeling a little pain at the moment.
It's pretty hot down here too, good thing they completely updated the power grid using the infrastructure stimulus spending...
ReplyDeleteI can't really make a call on today's tape. I did try to get 500 shares of PXP AH, but no takers.
ReplyDeleteCP- Yep...everything's updated here as well.
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