Tuesday, August 10, 2010
8/11/10 Wolverine
Yes, jb, we all occasionally trade in anger.
I waited all day for a chance to jump into TZA. At least a dozen opportunities came and went while I practiced 'patience.' Waited for the first impulse wave of post-FOMC buying, and opened a position at 31.68. Because I'd waited, I took a larger than normal opening position.
Then I made a big mistake. I waited for prices to jump back above 32. Well, prices did not move according to my script. So I waited some more. And watched the next impulse wave take it down to 31.01. I sold at 31.07!
I was ----ing pissed. At that point I reopened TZA using my original position size at 31.17. Then I walked away, knowing if I stayed to watch every tick I would get shaken out early. Somehow I managed to stay distracted for 30 minutes. When I logged back on, TZA was bidding at 31.80. I wasted no time closing.
So yes, I made money today. Trading 1000 shares of TZA, I ended the day +$2.44! That's no typo. I made 2 bucks. I also have a splitting headache. But I feel fortunate to have taken a hard kick to the kidneys, only to have the wound heal within a half hour.
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For my part I sometimes feel that not posting my trades reduces my stress level. Of course, I'm wrong as least as often as right, as you all know well.
ReplyDeleteAnyway today I sold the GMO fairly near my buy price as the higher low is now questionable until tested further.
I also bought a good bit of PAL in the low-mid 3.30's and I'm happy 2 see palladium trading up in the overseas market.
Speaking of overseas, tonight I enjoyed some fine sea scallops and some kick ass rare tuna. Yes I know it's endangered.
And yes, quite a few Stoli's and oj have been poured. Yes I know it's a crime to mix Stoli:) Today I went to the driving range and then played ten holes here at Longshore.
Figuring commodities rally from here more.
Happy Summer Everybody!
Hey Chicken,
ReplyDeleteNo I had to sell this morning as everything was going to shit. Probably a mistake I know but honestly, GMO never fucking does what it seems it should. It's a screwdoodle machine.
I am now long a good bit of PAL and I mainly bought it because I have a fixation with it and because it was the laggard:)
What's new Chicken?
BTW GRS Gammon Gold made a big bullish engulfing thing today. Good 4 more? Kyle?
ReplyDeleteoverseas markets hitting the crapper...glad i'm only 12% long, 88% cash.
ReplyDeletecongrats on the patience 2nd. here's to having much more of it going forward. we all need it.
by the way, i'm fully aware that my i'm glad i'm in cash because overseas market hitting the crapper post will turn into man why wasn't i more long than i was post tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGreat job guys. Thanks. I just got home from work, hungry, thirsty, and tired, and you all give me a 6 pt. ES drop. You all owe me ;)
ReplyDeleteWatch oil tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteGoing through my charts tonight...
ReplyDeleteTED spread completely collapsed:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND
Baltic Dry Index still rebounding from deeply oversold levels:
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
Copper Charts staying near 2 month highs:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical.html
a pullback in the markets would probably be a healthy thing. bulls point to earnings but from this chart earnings figures are based on profit margins being the best they've ever been at 8.4%:
http://i.bnet.com/blogs/gs-margins.bmp
will they stay at these levels if jobs come back?
sea of red across the globe. delayed reaction to the fed, china slowdown, both?
ReplyDeletemade 8 trades, put the first on at the close mon, and managed to make a few $$$ but I closed out too soon. I did not expect this delayed reaction. oh well, today is another day.
Jeeeezes.....
ReplyDeleteI wake up to this shit? Why can't a single goddamn stock I buy go up for a few days EVER?
Why is the screwdoodle an every other day affair these days?
no shit shark, what a crock of crap.
ReplyDeletealmost have the wife convinced that we need to move to 100% cash and only invest/trade on a day to day basis.
and how's this for weird: yesterday I posted about the emails I sent to the white house, complaining about more taxpayer funded payoffs to unions as a way for the dems to buy the mid terms....well, about 2hrs later we had helicopters circling our house, flying very low, for the balance of the day.
ReplyDeleteshould i meet an early demise you'll know why
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market was all over the place but did end off its worst levels.
That doesn't matter though. Futures are getting slammed pre-market.
So, same as it ever was, same as it ever was:
When the market is range bound, wait, don't anticipate.
Best of luck with your trading (or sitting on your hands) today!
shark/jb- It's the nature of the beast. I could sit here and ponder selling TZA @ 31.79 yesterday (currently bidding 33.98), or I can accept the fact that the market offers us opportunities for just those kinds of unexpected moves.
ReplyDeleteLost opportunities are just that. I'm thankful I haven't suffered any massive losses this year.
Mark- On the bright side, long bond yields should tumble today.
ReplyDeleteselling in the nasdaz is over done: TYH @28.70
ReplyDeletejb- You have nerves of steel, man. I wouldn't even raise the anchor in this kind of violent selling storm, especially in the ultras. You just don't know what's going to happen...
ReplyDeletetyh of at 28.7975...looks like the 1min chart just broke down.
ReplyDeleteas you can see 2nd I already bailed, no balls after all!
ReplyDeletelong Hecla HL
ReplyDeleteunreal, literally within 10 seconds of bailing the next set of trades come thru and tyh punches back above the resistance.....I got a lot to learn!
ReplyDeleteHere's the ultimate scenario- we sell off hard, all day. We see capitulation in a few sectors. I would wait some more. If bears continue to have the upper hand tomorrow morning, buy a little for a dead cat bounce.
ReplyDeleteThat's a swing trade not a day trade BTW
ReplyDeletewe're now under the 200 DMA so i would advise not going long anything until we're clearly oversold and panic is in the air.
ReplyDeleteHelicopters flying low - There's not much wonder why our government's broke is there? Dispatching a helicopter to any location questioning the establishments decision making process must be an expensive mechanism for response.
ReplyDeleteYou're damn right they were buying union votes.
China - I notice Shanghai closed in the green last night.
PAL - Today would be the day if you thought earnings tomorrow were liable to provide an upside surprise.
ReplyDeletemy wife thinks I'm paranoid CP...I prefer to think of myself as careful.
ReplyDeletedid see shanghai closed green, one of the few gtreenies in the overnight. maybe the point is that the trade deficit will surely cut next qtrs gdp by a greater than expected amount.
Well that was fun. RBY: I closed the market last night with my sell and I opened the market this morning selling the remaining 25% of RBY.
ReplyDeleteObviously everything I follow is below S2, so unless I see something really crazy it's hand sitting.
ReplyDeleteAlthough BHI's RSI triple is getting really low...I mean REALLY low.
ReplyDeleteHi Chicken,
ReplyDeleteHL not working out, still in it but unhappily.
Sold PAL this am for 3.30-3.31
Kind of depressed but looking forward to vacation later in August.
Will SSO and TNA price converge again?
ReplyDeleteSCCO - Or maybe I'll target this one at around $26.
ReplyDeletelooks like 2nd nailed it, down we go again.
ReplyDeleteReally stinky bids in RAS/BHI....If these babies fill the end of the world is near. GL!!
ReplyDeleteOut of HL I give up.
ReplyDeleteBlack Wed scenarios coming into play.
CADC - Just did a swan dive.
ReplyDeleteSometimes it seems like no matter where you buy a stock goes down.
ReplyDeleteAnd wherever you sell you sell for a penny or two less than you should have.
I feel like a contrary freaking indicator:)
RBY going up despite it all...
ReplyDeleteMaybe I should buy it to make it go down:)
This is a really steady dramatic selloff....where she stops nobody knows:)
ReplyDeleteYep. TOF's observation yesterday was spot-on, we were at the top of the range. I heard this from a couple of other observers as well but hopefully the range doesn't shift downwards.
ReplyDeleteSomeone else commented this could go on for several years...
RBY WAS going up don't know how don't know why long RBY.
ReplyDeleteUAUA - How the heck can airlines be doing so well comparatively speaking if US business prospects are declining? One phenomenon I've witnessed personally is a tenacious propensity to maintain sales forces during market slow downs but at this point I'd expect some major cutbacks even there considering prospects are disappearing.
ReplyDeleteSOH'ers are bragging on record daily profits - this has got to turn the market back up.
ReplyDeletetyh@28.50, fas@20.94, tna@38.25
speaking as a million mile UA flyer, I wouldn't invest in any airline with your money.
ReplyDeletehow many times does the current model need to go bankrupt before people get a clue????
CVS - Now on sale under $29.
ReplyDeletejb - If I worked for an airline I'd just grab two beers and jump!
ReplyDeletefunny CP! is that a great story or what! since I flew the same routes over and over I got to know tons of flight attendants...most of them hated the job and hated the passengers, most of the time for good reason.
ReplyDeleteif i cared at all about what is happening today in the markets (a function of being almost completely in cash) then i would bet on a further drop in prices and would be looking to buy bgz. but given my success on buying big dips, i'm just waiting for a panic to set in.
ReplyDeleteLooking on the bright side, there's a gap to fill.
ReplyDeleteTOF - I agree completely, waiting to see Shanghai tonight.
ReplyDeleteI'll tell ya, if it weren't for Europe I think we'd still be up around 1200. China certainly can't wait around for American consumerism to reignite the torch, we're not going immediately back to those previously unsustainable consumption levels. That party's over and done with, we need a new party to attend.
ReplyDeleteAnybody looking to get into EEM somewhere under $39? US blue chips should be good too, they're multinational.
Congress has blown any chance of American jobs creation, they're obviously in bed with blue chips and blue chips don't give a squat about American jobs.
That's quite a sell-off to wake up to. Well, I decided to take some profits off the table and closed my delayed day trade from yesterday: just sold at $32.92 the 100 shares of SDS I bought yesterday at $31.30 when the market bounced up hard after the vacuous Fed announcement.
ReplyDeleteSo today's wage report indicates wage increases for only three regions, one of which isn't government related:
ReplyDeleteNorfolk, VA
District of Columbia
New Mexico
Man, I got out of MON at $61 in all my accounts, and it looks like it was a medium-term top! MON is now approaching the $55 threshold, at which I sold an August covered call (for about $2.50) for yet another 100 shares. I have already mentally parted with these shares, but it looks like MON can easily drop below $55 by August 20, and so those shares will actually stay with me. So I won't be buying any more MON now and will wait until August 20, and maybe I'll automatically "buy" some MON if my covered calls expire.
ReplyDeleteProof of concept: Last week the advice when the portfolio sets new highs, to sell. Well, I did not go to all cash, but I did sell and now have a nice cash balance to take advantage of the next swing set-up. Down today, but if I held it would have been substantial nose-bleed.
ReplyDeletelooks like the bulls are going to test if the bears will drop the ball again.
ReplyDeleteSuch a low T-yield must make stock attractive to mutual funds for which the main control knob is the ratio of money invested into stocks vs. bonds.
ReplyDeleteWe get everything including the kitchen sink thrown at us, now we've got these tremendously rapid pullbacks.
ReplyDeleteJust give me dramatically lower prices so I can finish loading up.
T-yield - Hey, subtract 3% from the 10 year and this gives you earnings on cash. Yep, cash is gaining once again, then add onto that your T yield and the return isn't really all that bad. Some folks need more, so they take on risky dividend payers b/c market appears range bound?
ReplyDeleteI might have to step in front of this soon. Looking closely at SWN.
ReplyDeleteCP- CVS...yep.
ReplyDeleteWFC slipping quickly.
ReplyDeleteMommy!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteENER/AONE...
ReplyDelete..
.
.
.
ALERT!!!!!! FTWR back to 4.00.
ReplyDeletewhat, did ftwr do a 100-1 reverse split???
ReplyDeletejust kidding.
I'm hanging in with my longs, haven't blown all the profit from yesterday but it's getting close.....come on ramp!
BACML analyst cautioned a couple of days ago not to buy financials b/c of poor expected ROI...
ReplyDeleteBernanke concedes economy is going down the tubes and FED is prepared to further support government deficits using their MBS proceeds.
Consumer is tapped out and unwilling to accept further personal debt, worried about employment prospects.
Black helicopters hover over jb's house doing God knows what, but it's not likely a friendly gesture to take him golfing.
JB- I know your long, but I'd love to see a big panic close. I'm seeing a little of it in a few things.
ReplyDeleteCP- That just about wraps it up as far as I'm concerned.
wow, i can only hang on for a few more ticks, then i'll need to toss in the towel.
ReplyDeletemaybe i'll get lucky CP and those copters will crash into my huose and end the pain..:)
mark - you looking to re-load on HEK?
XLE catching a little bid.
ReplyDeleteHEK- Yep. Listened to the CC the other day. I'd listen to it. VERY interesting. I'll obviously post any entry.
ReplyDeleteRe: its a trap, a bear trap/ Bull Trap newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4469 comments) on Wed, 08/11/2010 - 15:34 #67075 (in reply to #67067)
ReplyDeleteSorry, man. I think it's a bull trap.
FD- All cash.
ok, out of tyh, fas and tna. made a couple of bucks on tyh, lost a bit on fas and got killed on tna.
ReplyDeletewhy are/did small caps getting hammered more than large caps today?
Amazing...selling non-stop all day.
ReplyDeleteYou have to respect it.
Man Mark, look at BAC. New 52 wk low.
ReplyDeleteFinancials are getting killed.
FF
Just for the hell of it I ran a LT chart on financials....they have all got Landry bowties (crossed MA's) to the downside. A major bad sign.
ReplyDeleteIf they go everything else will follow.
My only position is Cenex which I'm up pretty good on and pays better than T's. I sold T's today (TLT) and will reload on a bounce, which we get get just because that's human nature.
FF
jb - If they drop a ladder just tie it off to an immovable object such as a fire hydrant or a car axle so as to provide good anchorage. Keep a 4-5klb rated hardened cargo chain handy for this purpose.
ReplyDeletethx CP, best advice I've gotten all day..:)
ReplyDeletefor a large sell off the vol was fairly lite.
Holy crap. CSCO is getting killed.
ReplyDeleteI keep my chain around a 125' Douglas fir tree.
ReplyDeleteIt works every time. Screw this market, you can make good change on heli salvage and used golf clubs.
What do you want to bet the powers that be push the $usd lower to stave off a big sell off, at least temporarily? A replay of 2006-2008.
FF
csco - now this will be a good con call to dial into, i think it starts in 30mins.
ReplyDeletemight try to grab a few shares, other than dso inching up their results look solid.
Lost $700 on the 2 trades net. Not bad considering I was down $11k at one point.
ReplyDeleteI think this thing goes lower. My money stays out till I see complete panic.
more vote buying - $3B in loans to unemployed people who are behind on their mortgages....thank goodness there's no more nonsense in the housing/lending biz.
ReplyDeletehow low will the dems stoop??
now i need to walk outside and see how choppers are flying overhead
sharkie - smart move letting go, I'm still hanging in there with just a flap of green skin showing.
ReplyDeleteHaving a ball!
JB- The ALL will do anything to stay in power. None of them care about anything else. That simple.
ReplyDeleteKeep one cold for me. I'll be back.
ReplyDeleteS&P - Next target 1050 with an eye on 1010?
ReplyDeletedamnn....look at CSCO drop.
ReplyDeleteare buyers today the same as dumb buyers back in 1930/31? i always think of that when i want to buy or when i buy.
scary thought TOF.
ReplyDeletelogged into the csco earnings webinar now, s/b interesting
CSCO - $22.50 is the trend line.
ReplyDeleteThe next level down would be $20.80 from the way I see it.
ReplyDeletethx CP.
ReplyDeletechambers is still babbling on and on during the intro so nothing interesting yet, other than it sounds like apj was lighter than expected
I'll bet after a week like this just about every small business across America is rushing out in a panic to hire any Tom Dick or Harry they can find...
ReplyDeletenow he's quoting ben "unusual uncertainty"
ReplyDeleteMark -- what info about HEK did you pick up from CC? I stopped reading it a while ago...
ReplyDeleteChain your helicopter to this....
ReplyDeletehttp://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aiFjnanrDWVk
I see gld is down after market.....
FF
bidding 21.85...didn't hear anything yet to scare me away from csco
ReplyDeleteHmm, Good job, we're liable to see even lower prices considering uncertainty is the new expectation. Perhaps the next vague iteration will be "more or less uncertain"
ReplyDeletemoved my bid down to 21.80...softening up some right now
ReplyDeleteok, now i own it.
ReplyDeleteok, just checked the after hours trading in SPY...it just cratered and is now down the equivalent of 10 points from the close.
ReplyDeleteFF - The simple truth is the old codgers in WDC simply aren't up to the task of simplifying our tax, health-care, retirement and financial systems.
ReplyDeleteRevolt is where we're heading, I can feel the anger growing. This should prove quite interesting.
How long has it been since we heard the fake term "green shoots"?
Is that when we stat a 'green' party and shoot the MF'ers? Just wondering.....
ReplyDeleteFF
So then, if our government is now hopelessly bankrupt, there's no income to tax and Ben isn't going to print, then TBT and TMV seem like the obvious choices going forward.
ReplyDeleteWow, TNA and SSO have converged already!
ReplyDeletethe move in tna is unreal
ReplyDeleteThis is getting interesting... Should I sell some TWM after hours into this spike?
ReplyDeleteThe after-hours move is a bit extreme. In our age of market fakes, I would have to assume that it is an overreaction. Just for fun, I bought 100 shares of TNA just now at $35.97 and placed a sell limit order at $36.97. Let's see if I can make a quick 100 bucks tomorrow while I am still sleeping. :)
ReplyDeleteIf TNA gaps down tomorrow by more than 2% (without hitting my sell limit order) and continues down, then I'll just keep it and treat it as a partial sale of my TWM. In the event of a steady multi-day market sell-off, the increases to TWM will be compounded and it will grow by more than 2X relative to Russell 2000, while the absolute changes in TNA will keep becoming smaller and smaller, and it will decrease by less than 3X relative to Russell 2000.
ReplyDeleteA quick calculation on a spreadsheet shows that if Russell 2000 drops 2% per day for the next 5 days, then TWM will grow by 23% and TNA will drop by 28%. So the relative impact of my TNA position will keep getting smaller and smaller, and so I don't really have to worry much about it.
david - i gotta say i would expect the market to backtest back up to 1,100 before going lower...
ReplyDeleteWell, a backtest to 1100 is about a 1% move up from here, which should translate into a 3% move up in TNA, which should place it just above my sell limit order at $36.97. :)
ReplyDeleteOh no, sorry -- TNA closed at $37.41 today, so my sell limit order on TNA can be hit even without Russell 2000 going green tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteGL JB- I don't know. 21.00 is not that far away and I'd guess it will test that.
ReplyDeleteThere's also a little tiny gap @ 20.50 and 19.00.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete