Sunday, August 15, 2010
8/16/10 Monday, Monday
Monday, Monday, can't trust that day
Monday, Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh Monday mornin' you gave me no warnin' of what was to be
What did I say last week (alright, two weeks ago)- all's fair in love, war, and trading? The emotions we experience in any one of the three certainly apply as well to the other two.
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DJIA futes -44.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting the first hint of bad vibes here. After months of waiting, is it possible we see Black Monday on an August Monday?
ReplyDeleteanything is possible, i would guess we'll get a black monday but not until sept......once the family movie is over I'll turn on cnbc world and see how things are looking in apj
ReplyDeleteWow...I'm beat. How as everyone's weekend?
ReplyDeletePetty soft in electronic trading. Any thoughts?
BAC...
ReplyDeleteNEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp is considering whether to reduce its stake in asset manager
BlackRock Inc, which is viewed as a non-core asset, a source familiar with the situation said on Sunday.
Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America inherited a stake in BlackRock through its 2008-2009 acquisition of Merrill
Lynch.
It owns a 34.1 percent economic interest in the asset manager. As of March 31, the bank valued its BlackRock investment at
$14.1 billion.
Bank of America has for some time been looking at its non-core assets and weighing whether to sell or keep them, said the
source. The BlackRock asset is not considered core, so the bank is also weighing whether that should be reduced, the
source said.
Bank of America has been selling other assets. It struck a deal in 2009 to sell a long-term asset management business, part
of its Columbia Management division, to Ameriprise Financial Inc for about $1 billion.
It recently reduced its private equity investment business, with the spin-out of its mid-market private equity business, now
called Ridgemont Equity Partners.
The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that it was considering reducing the BlackRock stake.
Another factor which may contribute to a decision to sell is that far-reaching rules proposed recently by the Basel
Committee of Bank Supervision, known as the Basel III capital requirements, will effectively prevent banks from holding big
stakes in other companies.
Bank of America and PNC Financial Services Group Inc may be forced to sell their stakes in asset manager BlackRock
under those rules, Reuters reported earlier in August. [ID: nN03196862]
In the United States, banks rarely own large chunks of other companies. But Bank of America and PNC -- through a unique
series of deals -- combined own nearly 60 percent of BlackRock, though the asset management company remains
independent. (Editing by Bernard Orr and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
I would say that if we wake up to DJIA futes with a 9-handle, any bounces should be shorted. If it's a gap-down with a 10-handle, I would buy the opening gap.
ReplyDeleteBeyond that, I have no opinions right now.
200 pts....Hmmm, but I agree with your take.
ReplyDeleteDitto
ReplyDeleteBuckle your seat belt for tomorrow
we've got empire mfg and nahb housing index today - either one could send us into a tailspin (or continue the tailspin we seem to be in the middle of), 2nd could nail this one, again
ReplyDeleteDJIA futes -50.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market tried to rally on Friday but reversed to end the week on a soft note.
So far, the indices remain stuck in a range but the above action does put them at multi-week lows.
For the aggressive, I'm seeing some high flying stocks forming Pioneer First Thrust (email me if you need the First Thrust Pattern).
Other than that, for the most part, you probably want to continue to sit on your hands while the market remains stuck in a range.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Craig- Any insight into the 'Pioneer First Thrust' pattern?
ReplyDeletetossed a stink bid in on a new one for me; TBT....looks overdone here.
ReplyDeletelong TBT at 32.80
ReplyDeleteGot to try it also...TBT @ 32.70
ReplyDeleteadded a bit more to my REDF position at $1.95.
ReplyDeleteSWN @ 33.70
ReplyDeleteXCO @ 14.54
ReplyDeleteCVS - Bounced off $28.40 again.
ReplyDeleteout of TBT up $320
ReplyDeletefollowing in
ReplyDeleteTBT @ 32.84
Guys remember when I was talking about buying EXK???
ReplyDeleteNot saying buy it but it is starting to happen.
selling 1/2 of my INFA position, still holding the calls.
ReplyDeleteand the ira acct out for another 280, total up $600 now, all accts out
ReplyDeleteCADC - Looks like MM trying to suck in longs then take it down tomorrow...
ReplyDeleteCall me suspicious, 1st) Take it down, 2nd) Hold it there a while to suck in longs, 3rd) Take it down again...
Earnings should be this week I believe..
sold too early again, LOL
ReplyDeleteAdding to SWN @ 33.47.
ReplyDeleteMarket looks pretty solid to me right here. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we rally back and over 1,130.
ReplyDelete"Market looks pretty solid to me right here."
ReplyDeleteI am agree, At least for the time being. China's exports should provide some profit for retailers I would expect, hopefully an enthusiastic air of optimism emerges... and by some miracle Chinese citizens become consumption oriented.
They like Nike but not Reebock, well so do I but that isn't likely to put cash in my pocket.
CNAM took a hit b/c they didn't import many natural resources this quarter, they're gonna concentrate more effort on metals recycling.
emerging markets are where its at in my mind. the hang seng index has been doing really well in the past 6 months or so, especially when compared with the mature markets like the US, FTSE, etc. i currently have about 10% of my portfolio in the EEM index fund...i'm moving more in at the close today.
ReplyDeleteEmerging markets - I've kinda had my eye on THD, it's been rolling along.
ReplyDeleteUNG has entered a bargain territory already. However, according to my plan I will wait until UNG drops below $6.70 and then sell 10 $7 puts on UNG for around $1 each.
ReplyDeleteIn order to raise some more cash for waging the UNG battle (in case it drops below $6 and I'd want to back up the truck on HNU.TO), I decided to take some profits on CEF (just sold 250 shares at $14.98 that I purchased at $14.15 at the end of July) and on my MON $55 covered call (I sold it when MON was $54.50 against the 100 shares I purchased at $50, and just now I closed the transaction essentially selling my MON at $57).
My computer has made been ordering for me.
ReplyDeleteAONE @ 7.44
REDF @ 1.92 (partial fill)
ANOTHER leg down for TBT??? Wow...I might have to cut it loose.
ReplyDeletePXP @ 23.40
ReplyDeleteTBT off @ 32.53. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteTLT is definitely NOT a good omen for the markets.
ReplyDeleteTOF- TLT lead that little market correction today by about 10 minutes. I agree. We'll see, but it kinda felt like a shake out.
ReplyDeleteSo much for a solid market...
ReplyDeleteWouldn't it be a pisser if they take it green into close?
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell happened, anybody know yet?
ReplyDeleteBidding SD @ 4.50.
ReplyDeleteCP- No clue, but something had to spoke the market.
ReplyDelete"Do you feel that heavy use of technology has affected the way you think? For better or for worse?"
ReplyDeleteDefinitely has, I'm more F**ed up than I've ever been, a daily struggle to stay sane in this world.
I'm probably just one of many...
Today's trades. I'm down -487.
ReplyDelete(a) Two ill-timed entries/quick exits on TZA. My position sizing this summer seems to have me taking P/L in the 250/trade area.
(b) On the other hand, I executed a flat close out of REDF. I know this was supposed to be a long-term hold, but psychologically I'm not ready for any LT positions right now. Doubled down at 1.95, cleared the table at 2.001.
At this point, I believe it will close green.
ReplyDeleteAccording to Yahoo, the 10-year T-yield as at 2.57% -- amazing! A while ago I made calculations that showed that a 10% drop in the price of a house would give the same loss to the owner as a 1% increase in the mortgage rate over 30 years. So even if there is a further 10% downside to housing prices, some people might want to go out and buy now because of the low mortgage rates, since the mortgage rates will rise significantly from the current levels BEFORE any noticeable increase happens in the housing prices.
ReplyDeleteMoral of the story: I have just covered at $14.15 500 shares of XHB I shorted a few weeks ago at $15.05.
David- Does that mean you'll be looking for a realtor?
ReplyDeleteI just wish somebody would make a final decision one way or the other, I've got other things to do as opposed to baby sitting this fickle market full time.
ReplyDeleteAnd I thought you were here for MarkW's instantaneous analyses of any and all breaking news. Especially those involving sports celebrities.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- I covered XHB short so as to reduce the risk to my portfolio. Buying a house now would actually increase the risk to my portfolio. I might be OK with buying at a higher price as long as I am pretty sure that the price is in the uptrend (I'll always have the option of selling the house with some profit and becoming free of obligations once again). However, if we get a double dip recession and the price drops 20%, then I'll be really worried about making sure that I don't lose my job, and I don't want to be that worried.
ReplyDeleteMat as well! Combining sports celebrity news with technical analyis, I see a negative correlation exists between Tiger Woods' golf score and Barack Obama's approval polls...
ReplyDeleteNow that's considerably more interesting than any breaking market news....
UCO had a decent pullback recently, so I have just reloaded at $9.30 300 shares of UCO -- 1/2 of the position I sold at $10.90 a couple of weeks ago. If UCO drops below $9, I'll sell 3 $9 puts on it, completing the reloading of my UCO position.
ReplyDeleteThey're finally going to neuter and spay Fannie and Freddie this week.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete