I love this game. I could spend hours watching the movement of dice and chips.
Which was my problem today. Instead of sitting out the series, I placed a green chip on the pass line twice, and watched the shooter roll a 3 and a 12 on successive come out rolls. WTF.
David- I understand what you mean about exposure to RE. I've looked at buying a rental or 2 here. Say 35K down on each to be net cash flow positive. But my entire business is RE based and just couldn't pull the trigger.
I bet in 5 years I'll regret the hell out of that decision.
Mark -- don't forget that you can re-evaluate your decision on daily basis, and being a nimble trader I am sure that you'll detect the moment when the interest rates will start a sustainable growth.
Mark, can you please tell us why you decided to buy some SWN today? Did you do it for a short-term trade (in that case, why do you think the shares will rise over the near term) or for a long-term hold (in that case, why do you think the shares will rise over the long term)?
PAL - Okay, so now it looks like PAL finds it necessary to reveal some detail on their second paladium deposit, which is under that currently under production.
I guess maybe they're a little embarrassed concerning the initial $1500/oz Au production cost yielded from Sleepy Giant?
PAL - Yes, I forgot to include the link. Anyway, there is a second palladium deposit(called the offset zone) beneath the first which sounds quite good in terms of feasibility as laid out in the scoping study released after today's close:
Perhaps you know of PAL's recent failed(?)foray into mining the newly acquired Sleepy Giant gold mine, the pps began sliding immediately following the announcement last quarter and hasn't stopped since, for all intensive purposes. Their cost to produce from this clapped-out, recycled mine they bought was estimated @$600/oz but this first quarter of production came in at $1500/oz! That might change, but if I wanted gold I'd buy a gold miner anyway.
So, poor performance of Sleepy Giant gold explains this quarter's pps weakness, now maybe the upbeat palladium offset zone study will reverse this downtrend or just soften it?
I'm pretty sure the world's gonna need more palladium before she finally sinks into oblivion...
hey, we all participated in creating this Monster. We voted them in
chicken, jb, illini, david, TEAM, cheapie and all the others including sharkie ... Surprise us and come next weekend for our summer get together.. Just do it. We all know deep down that old perceptions of Good Times Might be changing...
I did some more research about ECRI's WLI index and determined that the index is basically useless for predicting the stock prices. The index's own movements can be very well predicted using the latest data for its main components (stock prices, treasury yields, unemployment claims, etc.).
On the other hand, ECRI's US Long Leading Index (USLLI) does not use stock prices as one of its components and supposedly predicts changes in the US economy with a longer lead time than the stock prices. I couldn't find, however, a place where I could get timely readings of USLLI -- is anyone aware of such a place?
As of April 2010, USLLI was showing only a minor slowdown for the US economy, and the ECRI's leading home price index actually kept rising for the past few months. This suggests that a recession in 6-9 months is not inevitable in the USA.
I have also just read Jeremy Grantham's 2Q commentary (written in July), where he is still assigning a 45% chance to S&P rising to 1400 over the next year, as Bernanke's promise to keep rates at 0 for a long time keeps fueling unfounded speculation (which will later end in tears). On the other hand, he has also increased his estimate (to 30%) for the US economy going down the drain over the next year and the stock market following it down.
Given this amount of uncertainty in the market, I just shudder to imagine what will happen if I stubbornly decide that the market MUST go down now and keep increasing my TWM position, while the market instead decides to take S&P to 1400. Then my losses from scaling into ultrashorts between February and April will seem like peanuts in comparison to the losses I'll incur.
To cut the long story short, I decided that I should reduce my TWM position even more (taking advantage of the recent rally in TWM) and really keep its size consistent with it being a speculative put option without expiration on the stock market (as opposed to letting its size grow like I am ready to do with UNG if it keeps going down).
I have just placed a sell stop limit order at $21.5/$21.45 for 300 shares of TWM (out of 800 that I have now).
Some excerpts from http://www.dsnews.com/articles/home-prices-post-may-gains-but-sp-sees-no-sustained-recovery-2010-07-27:
****
The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price composite increased 1.2 percent between April and May. The 10-city composite reading was up 1.3 percent.
The gains posted in the latest installments of the closely watched indices were much larger than the market expected, but analysts warn that the plus-signs are only making a temporary showing, reflecting a strong spring selling season and the residual effects of the homebuyer tax credit.
“While May’s report on its own looks somewhat positive, a broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s.
Blitzer says that since reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only stabilized at the lower level. He argues that more recent statistics on June’s existing and new home sales, as well as housing starts, are nothing to write home about.
“It still looks possible that the housing market might bounce along the bottom for the foreseeable future, before showing any real improvement that will filter through to the rest of the economy,” Blitzer said.
****
If that's the case despite the massive temporary stimulus the government has applied to the economy, imagine what will happen to prices when the stimulus wears off completely and we do hit the next recession in late 2011-2012?
So my plan is to ignore the temporary minor gains in the housing market and to see how much damage the next recession will do to the housing market. THEN, in the depths of the next recession, when Bernanke starts buying Treasuries in huge quantities and drives down the 10-year yield to 2%, THAT'S when I'll enter the market. :)
One thing my trading experience has taught me is to always scale into long-term positions. Since I cannot "scale into" buying a house, I need to show patience and wait until real estate will be a *screaming* buy.
Mark- Make that a baked potato with everything on it.
TZA- Ah, the wisdom of taking losses quickly + the general rule of not holding overnight positions in the ultras pays off once again. Had I not taken a real loss of -$487 when I did, I would now be looking at a paper loss 3x that amount- giving new meaning to the term '3x'...
2nd - smart man. i think you'll be rewarded going long. i was looking last night at a bunch of things because my business has a little chunk of change for the first time in a while that is just sitting in cash earning 1% a year. I was thinking that with rates this low we should consider buying a cheap house in Colorado or maybe here in San Diego that we could rent out for more than the mortgage costs are and then I started looking at dividend yields on companies like JNJ or Paychex and started realizing that there are a lot of attractive investment opportunities out there. Perhaps we're all being too negative right now? I mean houses are becoming downright cheap right now with these rates. And equities aren't exactly expensive.
Pricing/trade execution question: I’ve been watching various blog sites lately, SOH in particular, and I am constantly amazed at the prices some of the folks get, always the absolute lowest price over a given time range for their entry and somehow the absolute highest for an exit (in a given time range). I use fido for my trades and I use limit orders, but I never seem to come close to getting the kind of prices these folks seem to get (based on their posts). Is fido a poor choice for a trading platform? Do you think I am just setting up my limit orders incorrectly?
The market reversed after a dip. This suggests that it could be in bounce from oversold mode. However, I think "bounce" is the key word in that sentence.
For the aggressive, I'm still seeing some high flying stocks (i.e. high relative strength) forming Pioneer First Thrust (email me if you need the First Thrust Pattern). Wait for entries though.
Keep in mind that overall, the big blue arrow continues to point sideways. Therefore, again, for the most part, you probably want to continue to sit on your hands while the market remains stuck in a range.
thx 2nd, I'm not trying to do that either, i just can't seem to match the entry/exit that many of the SOH's get.....so I was thinking fido stinks or I just stink at my limit orders, or both....just one time i want my trade to get in at the bottom of the candle and then a few mins later get out at the top....these guys are making .50, over and over and over
Maybe you are right about being too negative.Everything i read is preparing for the next leg down and everyone i know is struggling in business. but perhaps I just need to change friends. lol
JB- I kinda enjoy reading the comments at SOH also. Some really funny guys. However, the vast majority of them are sitting in their parents basement in their underwear paper trading.
Yes, I'm being cute, but one who posts a lot said yesterday, " Hey, I finally sold my condo. Once the sale closes, I'll be able to stop paper trading."
I'm not kidding about THAT!
One thing I do watch that really does seem to work on a very short term basis are pivot points.
PM Stocks - I am losing interest - short-term holds (hoping for a pop up to sell) Financial - Bullish - Looking at ETF's to buy Natural Gas - Bullish - Looking at ETF's to buy Energy Stocks - Bullish - Looking at ETF's to buy
VB- The little guys are still getting killed. The real big players in the real big Co's that I know, think WY/TLM/ADSK/PCAR/BAC/CSCO/CVX/RDS etc. are doing very well.
happened again, I had an order in for more typ@43.40, it trades down to 43.39 yet my buy order wasn't filled, then it jumps up to 43.58...i must be doing something wrong.
JB- Here's a screen shot off TYP with the pivot points I use.
http://www.screencast.com/t/NzAzYzZjMWU
As for order fills, if it did print .01 below your limit order you have every reason to complain....However, it might have happened on different exchange than where your order was routed. I have my orders routed through ARCA. Might want to look into that. Used to be routed through NYS mostly and order fills were more of a problem.
jb - FreeStockCharts.com has pivot points under the 'Add Indicator' tab. I usually keep an SPX screen up w/ pivot points just to have awareness of where things are during the day.
Financial: XFN.to(1x) HFU.to(2x) Canadian banking stocks have been getting good press for avoiding meltdowns. Insurance companies getting a big no. (see MFC.to for example)
Natural Gas: UNG HNU.to(2x)
Energy: XEG.to(1x) HEU.to(2x)
I am losing interest in stock selection. Until cheapybob comes up with one for a swing trade. ;)
jb - Yep, you got it. There was a Forex book I looked at in Borders that gave the various equations for the PPs. Stockcharts doesn't seem to have them as an overlay, so I just keep the freestockcharts SPX up w/ PPs (probably classic) on it. Don't really use them for trading (am more of a StochRSI & Multiple MA type). Just want to know intraday if SPX is challenging one of the levels.
I guess I am not doing what I preach. Got a fill on K.to this morning at $15.65cdn. An outstanding order from August 9th. Starting a inital position in Kinross Gold for the long-term.
jb - I'll try to arrange that for both you and I but you'll have to refrain from catching knives on the short side when the trade is reversing to the upside.
Okay, I'd have to say 1100 on S&P is the target and if bulls can recapture by hump-day and hold and T's also keep coming off, we might have a better than even chance of a green week...?
Good job, 2nd_ave, nailing the market direction this morning!
As for me, I have actually turned bullish yesterday. :) I covered my XHB short, purchased UCO and then, late last night, placed a sell stop limit order on 300 shares of TWM at $21.50/$21.45 that was triggered this morning. As a result, the net sum of my 3 trading accounts is up today. :)
In fact, in light of recent developments, I think we all must immediately drop what we're doing and down an icy black and tan at this moment in honor of Sharkie's mom.
tof- I know, I know....I just closed my INTC/CSCO positions for a 4-figure gain. I just think +200 points on the DJIA was more than I expected today...
No surprise to anyone who reads my posts, probably...
Ok, back in PIR at $6.60. Thinking maybe this is a good entry point. Stock is barely up from recent lows, down about 10% from last week and 15% from a few weeks ago. Don't want to be too stingy here.
RE: REDF...I actually added 6,000 shares today, not 3,000.
With PIR it makes sense to scale in because it is so volatile. So I'm doing that here. I bought a small starter position at $6.60. Will add at $0.20 increments.
right now my typ error is almost wiping out all my infa profit.....if we blip back up then i will close out....hoping for a wave down into the close to minimize the damage...*&%*$#$&%*&^
CADC - This monkey has been swinging all day today, on 19k shares traded. Incredible, can't wait to see earnings on this puppy... Could be a double-flusher?
CP - Add to that that the TED Spread has basically completely cratered (http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND) and the Baltic Dry Index has gone up several days/weeks in a row and there are some good things going on.
I see first daily attempt back up at 1,100 failed. Let's see how it does at that level again...possibly later this week.
I'm gonna hang tight and ride this storm out for awhile, sit back in my hammock and down a second icy-cold black and tan, enjoy a little outdoor life for a change.
TOF - Yes, that definitely helps to reinforce the recovery argument, these bears hanging out naked in dank basements can stuff their heads up their asses, the rest of us have lives to live.
Guys - RE: SD - I think I mentioned this a while ago, but that thing looks like it is going to zero. I don't know enough about this but look at that balance sheet: $2 Million in cash versus $2.75 Billion in LT Debt. Current Ratio of 0.66. Negative $129 Million in equity. Yikes!
OK... 30 year @ 4.5% no cost. L/V is about .4, conventional loan, combining a first and second. I could have gotten 4.125% with 3,500 in fees/points, but with all the talk going on right now, FRE/FME/Bill Gross etc., it wouldn't surprise me if we do this all over again soon :)
Anyone notice that Boston Scientific (BSX) popped up big in late afternoon. 5.47-5.88, almost to where I could have made a profit instead of taken a small loss in a 2 week swing trade a couple weeks ago.
The company entered a world of hurt when they acquired Guidant a couple years ago. The pop was due to a report of a buyer for one of their other units.
Nikkei back below 9100.
ReplyDeleteFor all of you keeping score out there...
ReplyDeleteOK, still long GMO/HUN.
Added SWN/PXP/AONE today. My computer decided to add 500 more shares of AONE when I was gone @ 7.14.
Partial fill of REDF @ 1.92 (2,000 out of 4,000)
Sold TBT for a $125 loss.
Net green on the day.
David- I understand what you mean about exposure to RE. I've looked at buying a rental or 2 here. Say 35K down on each to be net cash flow positive. But my entire business is RE based and just couldn't pull the trigger.
ReplyDeleteI bet in 5 years I'll regret the hell out of that decision.
Mark -- don't forget that you can re-evaluate your decision on daily basis, and being a nimble trader I am sure that you'll detect the moment when the interest rates will start a sustainable growth.
ReplyDeleteMark, can you please tell us why you decided to buy some SWN today? Did you do it for a short-term trade (in that case, why do you think the shares will rise over the near term) or for a long-term hold (in that case, why do you think the shares will rise over the long term)?
ReplyDeleteMark, did you hear from you MOG about SD?
ReplyDeletePAL - Okay, so now it looks like PAL finds it necessary to reveal some detail on their second paladium deposit, which is under that currently under production.
ReplyDeleteI guess maybe they're a little embarrassed concerning the initial $1500/oz Au production cost yielded from Sleepy Giant?
David- OK, SWN...
ReplyDelete37% off it's 52 week high, and we are nearing the bullish season for natty.
Total debit/equity is .45. Only DVN is lower, and SWN is weighted on the long end.
24% profit margin.
Institutional owner ship is 90%.
Low Beta .51.
RSI 7 day 21 day 48 day is 17/26/28.
From everything I read and here it really is the primer on shore natty play.
Can't find anything on their hedge book, and looking at Picken's Q2 filling, I got it a lot cheaper than he did :).
David- I'll see MOG EOW. I'll let you know. I had a order in today that didn't fill.
ReplyDeleteFSIN - Another Chinese railroad play.
ReplyDeleteCP- Can you please explain the PAL comment. Sorry, I don't follow you.
ReplyDeleteSWN - Every time it has fallen beneath the lower trend line (as it is now) it has immediately bounced back by several dollars within several sessions.
ReplyDeleteI'd say this is probably about the lowest risk entry point one could hope to find on this one... unless he wanted to wait for confirmation.
PAL - Yes, I forgot to include the link. Anyway, there is a second palladium deposit(called the offset zone) beneath the first which sounds quite good in terms of feasibility as laid out in the scoping study released after today's close:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/North-American-Palladium-iw-2860510879.html?x=0&.v=1
Perhaps you know of PAL's recent failed(?)foray into mining the newly acquired Sleepy Giant gold mine, the pps began sliding immediately following the announcement last quarter and hasn't stopped since, for all intensive purposes. Their cost to produce from this clapped-out, recycled mine they bought was estimated @$600/oz but this first quarter of production came in at $1500/oz! That might change, but if I wanted gold I'd buy a gold miner anyway.
So, poor performance of Sleepy Giant gold explains this quarter's pps weakness, now maybe the upbeat palladium offset zone study will reverse this downtrend or just soften it?
I'm pretty sure the world's gonna need more palladium before she finally sinks into oblivion...
CP- Yes, thank you. Now I understand.
ReplyDeleteI'm really liking my long entries here.
hi there,
ReplyDeletedoom and gloom everywhere!
hey, we all participated in creating this Monster. We voted them in
chicken, jb, illini, david, TEAM, cheapie and all the others including sharkie ... Surprise us and come next weekend for our summer get together.. Just do it. We all know deep down that old perceptions of Good Times Might be changing...
long or short, looking forward to seeing you next weekend!
ReplyDeletevb
Me too VB. It will be nice to stray from my diet of rocks and acorns!
ReplyDeleteHave I been asleep that long? 1 out of 6 people work for the fed/state/local government at a 40% premium compared to the general population...
ReplyDeleteEnough rocks and acorns!!! I'll go broke for prime rib and a baked potato :))
CP- Good point on SWN. I hope it's good for 38.
ReplyDeleteI expect we'll soon be witness to rising rates and equities prices, S&P at least to 1100 hopefully.
ReplyDeleteThe FED's first treasury operation is tomorrow (17th) and I suspect traders have been getting in front of the FED.
We'll see...
vb - For the record, I wrote in independents on my ballet! I was just so sick and tired of the BS emanating from within the beltway.
ReplyDelete"Your first sign of ALERT is if 10s break 2.745% support. If steepener flows pick up, we could see 10s run all the way back up to 2.85%."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/167004.aspx
Maybe they'll come up with a really entertaining reason for this week's rally by giving total credit to WMT, or something like that.
ReplyDeleteShanghai started off so well, now red...
ReplyDeleteI did some more research about ECRI's WLI index and determined that the index is basically useless for predicting the stock prices. The index's own movements can be very well predicted using the latest data for its main components (stock prices, treasury yields, unemployment claims, etc.).
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, ECRI's US Long Leading Index (USLLI) does not use stock prices as one of its components and supposedly predicts changes in the US economy with a longer lead time than the stock prices. I couldn't find, however, a place where I could get timely readings of USLLI -- is anyone aware of such a place?
As of April 2010, USLLI was showing only a minor slowdown for the US economy, and the ECRI's leading home price index actually kept rising for the past few months. This suggests that a recession in 6-9 months is not inevitable in the USA.
I have also just read Jeremy Grantham's 2Q commentary (written in July), where he is still assigning a 45% chance to S&P rising to 1400 over the next year, as Bernanke's promise to keep rates at 0 for a long time keeps fueling unfounded speculation (which will later end in tears). On the other hand, he has also increased his estimate (to 30%) for the US economy going down the drain over the next year and the stock market following it down.
Given this amount of uncertainty in the market, I just shudder to imagine what will happen if I stubbornly decide that the market MUST go down now and keep increasing my TWM position, while the market instead decides to take S&P to 1400. Then my losses from scaling into ultrashorts between February and April will seem like peanuts in comparison to the losses I'll incur.
To cut the long story short, I decided that I should reduce my TWM position even more (taking advantage of the recent rally in TWM) and really keep its size consistent with it being a speculative put option without expiration on the stock market (as opposed to letting its size grow like I am ready to do with UNG if it keeps going down).
I have just placed a sell stop limit order at $21.5/$21.45 for 300 shares of TWM (out of 800 that I have now).
Some excerpts from http://www.dsnews.com/articles/home-prices-post-may-gains-but-sp-sees-no-sustained-recovery-2010-07-27:
ReplyDelete****
The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price composite increased 1.2 percent between April and May. The 10-city composite reading was up 1.3 percent.
The gains posted in the latest installments of the closely watched indices were much larger than the market expected, but analysts warn that the plus-signs are only making a temporary showing, reflecting a strong spring selling season and the residual effects of the homebuyer tax credit.
“While May’s report on its own looks somewhat positive, a broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s.
Blitzer says that since reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only stabilized at the lower level. He argues that more recent statistics on June’s existing and new home sales, as well as housing starts, are nothing to write home about.
“It still looks possible that the housing market might bounce along the bottom for the foreseeable future, before showing any real improvement that will filter through to the rest of the economy,” Blitzer said.
****
If that's the case despite the massive temporary stimulus the government has applied to the economy, imagine what will happen to prices when the stimulus wears off completely and we do hit the next recession in late 2011-2012?
So my plan is to ignore the temporary minor gains in the housing market and to see how much damage the next recession will do to the housing market. THEN, in the depths of the next recession, when Bernanke starts buying Treasuries in huge quantities and drives down the 10-year yield to 2%, THAT'S when I'll enter the market. :)
One thing my trading experience has taught me is to always scale into long-term positions. Since I cannot "scale into" buying a house, I need to show patience and wait until real estate will be a *screaming* buy.
Mark- Make that a baked potato with everything on it.
ReplyDeleteTZA- Ah, the wisdom of taking losses quickly + the general rule of not holding overnight positions in the ultras pays off once again. Had I not taken a real loss of -$487 when I did, I would now be looking at a paper loss 3x that amount- giving new meaning to the term '3x'...
Turning bullish here and now-
ReplyDeleteINTC @ 19.61
CSCO @ 22.04
2nd - smart man. i think you'll be rewarded going long. i was looking last night at a bunch of things because my business has a little chunk of change for the first time in a while that is just sitting in cash earning 1% a year. I was thinking that with rates this low we should consider buying a cheap house in Colorado or maybe here in San Diego that we could rent out for more than the mortgage costs are and then I started looking at dividend yields on companies like JNJ or Paychex and started realizing that there are a lot of attractive investment opportunities out there. Perhaps we're all being too negative right now? I mean houses are becoming downright cheap right now with these rates. And equities aren't exactly expensive.
ReplyDeletePricing/trade execution question: I’ve been watching various blog sites lately, SOH in particular, and I am constantly amazed at the prices some of the folks get, always the absolute lowest price over a given time range for their entry and somehow the absolute highest for an exit (in a given time range). I use fido for my trades and I use limit orders, but I never seem to come close to getting the kind of prices these folks seem to get (based on their posts). Is fido a poor choice for a trading platform? Do you think I am just setting up my limit orders incorrectly?
ReplyDeleteSuggestions?
jb- In terms of trading, my goal is not to buy at the bottom or sell at the top- it's simply to buy low and sell high.
ReplyDeleteIf I happend to buy at the day's low or sell at the day's high, I mentally high-five myself- but it's never an expectation.
Landry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market reversed after a dip. This suggests that it could be in bounce from oversold mode. However, I think "bounce" is the key word in that sentence.
For the aggressive, I'm still seeing some high flying stocks (i.e.
high relative strength) forming Pioneer First Thrust (email me if you need the First Thrust Pattern). Wait for entries though.
Keep in mind that overall, the big blue arrow continues to point sideways. Therefore, again, for the most part, you probably want to continue to sit on your hands while the market remains stuck in a range.
Futures are up sharply pre-market.
thx 2nd, I'm not trying to do that either, i just can't seem to match the entry/exit that many of the SOH's get.....so I was thinking fido stinks or I just stink at my limit orders, or both....just one time i want my trade to get in at the bottom of the candle and then a few mins later get out at the top....these guys are making .50, over and over and over
ReplyDeleteI don't think they're doing that consistently. If they claim to be doing that, I'd want to see the trading records, b/c they'd be lying.
ReplyDeleteI just started to wonder if I was making some fundamental error when I was setting up my limit orders.
ReplyDeletebtw - did anyone else hop on INFA, sucker keeps moving up even without a buyout.
Team,
ReplyDeleteMaybe you are right about being too negative.Everything i read is preparing for the next leg down and everyone i know is struggling in business. but perhaps I just need to change friends. lol
I def need to stop trading!
JB- I kinda enjoy reading the comments at SOH also. Some really funny guys. However, the vast majority of them are sitting in their parents basement in their underwear paper trading.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm being cute, but one who posts a lot said yesterday, " Hey, I finally sold my condo. Once the sale closes, I'll be able to stop paper trading."
I'm not kidding about THAT!
One thing I do watch that really does seem to work on a very short term basis are pivot points.
shoot, i want to sit in a basement in my underwear paper trading....where do i sign up??
ReplyDeletethx for the pivot point suggestion, will brush up on that during my a.m. con call instead of falling asleep at my desk.
What I am watching:
ReplyDeletePM Stocks - I am losing interest - short-term holds (hoping for a pop up to sell)
Financial - Bullish - Looking at ETF's to buy
Natural Gas - Bullish - Looking at ETF's to buy
Energy Stocks - Bullish - Looking at ETF's to buy
VB- The little guys are still getting killed. The real big players in the real big Co's that I know, think WY/TLM/ADSK/PCAR/BAC/CSCO/CVX/RDS etc. are doing very well.
ReplyDeletetyp@43.45
ReplyDeleteCI- Obviously I agree on the energy side. GL.
ReplyDeletehappened again, I had an order in for more typ@43.40, it trades down to 43.39 yet my buy order wasn't filled, then it jumps up to 43.58...i must be doing something wrong.
ReplyDeletenow it fills, as it drops like a knife to 43.27....but i lost my chance to get in and out, to old/slow i guess
ReplyDeleteJB- Here's a screen shot off TYP with the pivot points I use.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/NzAzYzZjMWU
As for order fills, if it did print .01 below your limit order you have every reason to complain....However, it might have happened on different exchange than where your order was routed. I have my orders routed through ARCA. Might want to look into that. Used to be routed through NYS mostly and order fills were more of a problem.
Put some pants on....
Trying to fill the rest of REDF @ 1.91...
ReplyDeletethx Mark!
ReplyDeletepants off, beer in hand...:)
Well shit. That sucked. REDF filled and dropped right down to 1.85. Let's see if it's just MM high jinks.
ReplyDeletejb - FreeStockCharts.com has pivot points under the 'Add Indicator' tab. I usually keep an SPX screen up w/ pivot points just to have awareness of where things are during the day.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/N2IyMzZm
A bit more detail:
ReplyDeleteFinancial: XFN.to(1x) HFU.to(2x)
Canadian banking stocks have been getting good press for avoiding meltdowns. Insurance companies getting a big no. (see MFC.to for example)
Natural Gas: UNG HNU.to(2x)
Energy: XEG.to(1x) HEU.to(2x)
I am losing interest in stock selection. Until cheapybob comes up with one for a swing trade. ;)
thx Kyle!
ReplyDeleteAdded REDF at $1.90.
ReplyDeleteactually...looks like they only filled 200 shs at $1.88.
ReplyDeleteRe. Pivot Points...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tradejuice.com/forex/pivot-point-trading-mm.htm
Note that there are 4-5 different PP versions out there. Here's a Fibonacci PP version...
http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/03-03-fibonacci-pivot
2nd- Finally got all of our crap together for the re--fi. Just went in to Ted. Thanks for the referral.
ReplyDeleteI'll let you guys know what I get.
Nice to see a little more strength in the market after 7:30.
I'll post my formula for pivot points tonight.
ReplyDeletetimely Kyle as I just reading up on classic, camarilla, demark, etc.
ReplyDeleteyou've had best success w/fib pp's?
going to run a bunch now just to get used to doing it.
thx again Kyle
GL guys. Later.
ReplyDeletejb - Yep, you got it. There was a Forex book I looked at in Borders that gave the various equations for the PPs. Stockcharts doesn't seem to have them as an overlay, so I just keep the freestockcharts SPX up w/ PPs (probably classic) on it. Don't really use them for trading (am more of a StochRSI & Multiple MA type). Just want to know intraday if SPX is challenging one of the levels.
ReplyDeleteI guess I am not doing what I preach. Got a fill on K.to this morning at $15.65cdn. An outstanding order from August 9th. Starting a inital position in Kinross Gold for the long-term.
ReplyDeleteHmm, did anyone notice the TNA/SSO price convergence a couple days ago?
ReplyDeleteMark- Congrats- I don't think you'll be disappointed.
ReplyDelete2nd nailed market direction very early this a.m., excellent!
ReplyDeleteThe one-day gains can be tremendous, should we be looking for an exit or will this go on into the end of week?
ReplyDeleteCP - I need this to run for, I don't know, about 5 more years.....then I can bail out..:)
ReplyDeleteSharkie - Where'd he go? I hope he's long here today...
ReplyDeletejb - I'll try to arrange that for both you and I but you'll have to refrain from catching knives on the short side when the trade is reversing to the upside.
ReplyDeleteI'm clueless on how far this rally might go.
CADC - Wow, almost glad I missed today's low, might have been compelled to add there... Kinda looks like MM purposely ran stops to force capitulation.
ReplyDeleteGRMN - Seems like reaction to Aug 4th earnings was generally positive, it's just that market conditions have sucked since before and after.
ReplyDeleteI'm back CP, needed to change the bandages on my hands.....ouch!
ReplyDeleteTHD - At a brief glimpse, the recent gap down seems to have closed.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I'd have to say 1100 on S&P is the target and if bulls can recapture by hump-day and hold and T's also keep coming off, we might have a better than even chance of a green week...?
ReplyDeleteGPS - Speaking of gaps, this one reports on the 19th AMC.
ReplyDeletejb - I'm not so sure those guys paper trading from their dank basements even wear underwear at all, more like they've lost their shorts?
ReplyDeleteGotta hand it to the shorts though, the case has been very compelling from a fundamental standpoint but I'm just not a dreary thinker.
BHP - Gonna buy POT?
ReplyDeleteGood job, 2nd_ave, nailing the market direction this morning!
ReplyDeleteAs for me, I have actually turned bullish yesterday. :) I covered my XHB short, purchased UCO and then, late last night, placed a sell stop limit order on 300 shares of TWM at $21.50/$21.45 that was triggered this morning. As a result, the net sum of my 3 trading accounts is up today. :)
Yeah I'm around.
ReplyDeleteI went to the Dr. with mom earlier 2day and am bringing her to a 4 pm rehab, so obviously I am not too active but I have a small PAL position.
PAL LOOKS like it's making a higher-low having previously made a double bottom, all on the dailies.
GMO as you know has gapped up today after doing a bullish engulfing-thing yesterday. It too seems to have double-bottomed.
EXK also doing well, though I lost my belief at some point.
What I really want is to buy a lot of RBY at the 3.60 correction to the 20 day:)
Peace:)
Does this move have legs? Who knows, but a strong move through 1100 and hold for a few day's would be encouraging.
ReplyDeleteTOF- We missed a 20% move in RAS. I had an order in at the close the other day that missed by .01.
ReplyDeleteBy the way....KA-Fing-CHING!!!!
ReplyDeleteSharkie - Great to know you're still in, hoping mom's kicking some butt!
ReplyDeleteI'll down an icy black and tan tonight in honor of her.
KA-CHING! - You damn sure aren't kidding about that one bit... CONGRATS, man!
ReplyDeleteIn fact, in light of recent developments, I think we all must immediately drop what we're doing and down an icy black and tan at this moment in honor of Sharkie's mom.
ReplyDeleteThis isn't a request, it's a mandatory order!
BTW, don't drink and drive.
Thanks CP! I hope to hell I didn't just jinx us :)
ReplyDeleteI'll have to toast Mrs. Sharkie latter. Still have to pretend like I'm working today.
ReplyDeletetof- I know, I know....I just closed my INTC/CSCO positions for a 4-figure gain. I just think +200 points on the DJIA was more than I expected today...
ReplyDeleteNo surprise to anyone who reads my posts, probably...
WMT - It's been waaayyyy too long since I've looked this chart over.
ReplyDeleteMark - yeah I saw that. I'm steering clear of that one.
ReplyDeleteOrder went through on REDF at $1.90. Now have a pretty much too big position at $1.95 avg.
Sold 1/2 IMMR at $5.39 that I bought at $5.1 avg last Thursday. Moved this into PIR at $6.59.
Sold 1/2 of STT at $38.6
TOF- I like PIR here also. I'll see if I can grab a little.
ReplyDeleteGood job on STT.
Has PIR reported?
ReplyDeleteI like CAR here also.
ReplyDeleteMark - PIR reports 9/16 I believe. This is a solid trading stock. Lots of liquidity and volatility.
ReplyDeleteBidding CAR @ 9.85.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Thanks...I'm looking at it.
OK- Bidding PIR @ 6.53.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Did you just buy more REDF? :)
ReplyDeleteweird action in PIR - no vol, must be everyone is waiting for earnings
ReplyDeleteCP- We messed up with NANO big time :(
ReplyDeleteIf I closed my positions from yesterday, I'd have enough cash to buy down my re-fi by .35%, which would save me 50 bucks a month.
ReplyDeleteSold completely out of IMMR at $5.40. Saving cash up for other investments. Closed out of my PIR at break even...waiting for a better entry point.
ReplyDeleteMark - No I didn't add more REDF just now. I saw an 18k order went through. I added about 3,000 shares today.
TOF- I was just kidding :)...
ReplyDeleteThanks for the heads up on PIR. I'll wait also then.
PIR off.
Ok, back in PIR at $6.60. Thinking maybe this is a good entry point. Stock is barely up from recent lows, down about 10% from last week and 15% from a few weeks ago. Don't want to be too stingy here.
ReplyDeleteRE: REDF...I actually added 6,000 shares today, not 3,000.
SD- Friggin A guys. Let's see if we can get some sort of wash out today.
ReplyDeleteOK- PIR back on :)
ReplyDeleteWith PIR it makes sense to scale in because it is so volatile. So I'm doing that here. I bought a small starter position at $6.60. Will add at $0.20 increments.
ReplyDeleteIf I'd held onto INTC/CSCO, I would basically be watching my gains disappear right now...
ReplyDeleteStill bullish on both INTC/CSCO lt, of course...
right now my typ error is almost wiping out all my infa profit.....if we blip back up then i will close out....hoping for a wave down into the close to minimize the damage...*&%*$#$&%*&^
ReplyDeleteWe're not going to go anywhere if we lose the financials.
ReplyDeleteXLF right on top of R2. It better hold 4.16ish or we might be in trouble.....AGAIN!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm actually pushing higher here...Go Baby Go!!!!
ReplyDeleteMark - Watching the FAZ 15 lvl
ReplyDeleteLot's of volume here in C. S2 is 3.82. Wonder what's up?
ReplyDeleteKyle- Yep. Interesting on the day back to the open.
ReplyDeletePMI - Just have a probe amount. Watching how it handles the 3 lvl
ReplyDeleteI think it's pretty big news that BHP wants to buy POT except so many people think it's not a serious offer and others claim it's too under-priced.
ReplyDeleteThese companies wouldn't be attempting to buy up one another if they thought the global economy were falling off a cliff would they?
Damn, if that was the bottom for SD I'll be pissed. I was right on top of it.
ReplyDeleteTin hits a two year high in London, copper is strong along with gold, moving in the same direction, a good sign.
ReplyDeleteSWN breaking out to a new daily high.
ReplyDeleteBidding INTC @ 19.57.
ReplyDeleteCADC - This monkey has been swinging all day today, on 19k shares traded. Incredible, can't wait to see earnings on this puppy... Could be a double-flusher?
ReplyDeleteINTC @ 19.57.
ReplyDeleteSD - As Cramer says..."Thank God, Stocks stop at Zero!!!"
ReplyDeleteCP - Add to that that the TED Spread has basically completely cratered (http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND) and the Baltic Dry Index has gone up several days/weeks in a row and there are some good things going on.
ReplyDeleteI see first daily attempt back up at 1,100 failed. Let's see how it does at that level again...possibly later this week.
SD @3%$&*!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna hang tight and ride this storm out for awhile, sit back in my hammock and down a second icy-cold black and tan, enjoy a little outdoor life for a change.
ReplyDeleteAnother cheer for Sharkie's mom!
SD - AGREE!!! Went from 14 to 7. Do I hear 3.50??
ReplyDelete...... 1.75??
TOF - Yes, that definitely helps to reinforce the recovery argument, these bears hanging out naked in dank basements can stuff their heads up their asses, the rest of us have lives to live.
ReplyDeleteSD - Who's been pimping that one, anyway? I'd stay away from whomever that might be cause so far they've been terribly WRONG.
ReplyDeleteGuys - RE: SD - I think I mentioned this a while ago, but that thing looks like it is going to zero. I don't know enough about this but look at that balance sheet: $2 Million in cash versus $2.75 Billion in LT Debt. Current Ratio of 0.66. Negative $129 Million in equity. Yikes!
ReplyDeletedang TOF/CP, that's one of the worst looking balance sheets I've seen in a long time....wonder why it isn't zero now?
ReplyDeletetried to sneak out of my typ ah, but no bites. gotta love holding losing 3x etf positions overnight.
ReplyDeleteOK... 30 year @ 4.5% no cost. L/V is about .4, conventional loan, combining a first and second. I could have gotten 4.125% with 3,500 in fees/points, but with all the talk going on right now, FRE/FME/Bill Gross etc., it wouldn't surprise me if we do this all over again soon :)
ReplyDeletewhat's the next step, getting paid to take out a mortage???? do you know what the cost is on a 15yr loan?
ReplyDelete3.75ish.
ReplyDeleteOuch...TK was short POT going into the day.
No filly on CAR/PIR....
ReplyDeleteSee you cats late. My weekly 4-7 meeting on the job. God, I already have a headache. Going to see if I can get another 40K. Ciao!
ReplyDeleteAnyone notice that Boston Scientific (BSX) popped up big in late afternoon. 5.47-5.88, almost to where I could have made a profit instead of taken a small loss in a 2 week swing trade a couple weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteThe company entered a world of hurt when they acquired Guidant a couple years ago. The pop was due to a report of a buyer for one of their other units.