We never really leave behind those early years. It's almost as if we spend the next 60-70 years working out the conflicts and dreams of the first 10 years.
I'm with Craig and Landry right now- no point in reading too much into a range-bound market.
Mark - Reminds me of the small male dog I had years ago who somehow broke his leg (hit by a car?) and after having spent the customary amount of money at the veterinarian healed completely and walked without limp. Until he was scolded, then his limp magically came right back.
Can't remember if the limp was ambidextrous or not, wouldn't surprise me if it was though...
I just watched the Kyle Bass interview and decided that I should stop fighting the hard battle with making money on the ultrashorts and should instead focus on trading precious metals from the long side. All my shorts will only be in the form of some SPY and IWM puts. So now I just need to exit "gracefully" my remaining 500 shares of TWM. Or at least make sure that I don't increase this position anymore. In that light, I am really glad that I sold some of my TWM after hours into the temporary market dip.
Mark- I'm scheduled for a focus group session this evening on identity theft. I think security will be a hot button issue in the next few years. Consider how many financial transactions we make online these days.
INTC- I picked some up for all the kids at the open, around 18.99. Sure, it could drop another 10-15% oer the ST, but it will return >100% over the next few years.
Hey Guys - called some of my corp dev friends already this a.m. to see what they have to say re: INTC. Certainly agree security is vitally important esp as we move to enterprise wide cloud deployments. Hard for me to have a take in the short term, they are going run it as a wholly owned sub, not sure why they would do that, in the medium to long term integrating security into their various product lines is the real money maker imo, the key will be how fast can they do it and at what cost.
in general i would be a buyer of intc on weakness - the strong continue to get stronger.
now i need someone to step up and buy infa and lwsn!
Vad avoids those disclosures completely. Others there will indicate whether they are going 1000sh, 500sh or 300sh on a trade. Agree w/ you completely on r/r issues. Most I will put down on those types of trades is 15-18k usually on 2-20 price range.
maybe it wouldn't be such a "fucking mystery" for you if you paid any fucking attention or gave it more fucking thought than you give to fucking weed that makes you even more fucking brain-dead. Then you may have noticed that Vad commented on this in his response to 2nd a few weeks ago by pointing out that laying out 50K you do NOT put 50K at risk - you risk only the amount you designate as a stop size x position size. Thus, your very idea of how risk-reward is calculated is wrong. Makes sense now?
jb - If I may ask what indicators are you looking at??? I've been using SRSI & MMA criteria. Currently waiting for SRSI > 35 on increasing volume to enter BGU trade...
I'm wondering who you are and why, if you know so much about Vad's operation, are you are so hesitant to disclose the very information that could bring my initial query to a satisfying intellectual conclusion? Meaning, if you know the numbers give us the damn numbers or.....I'll buy you a drink and 2nd and Mark will roll you after you're soused:) We will spend you pocket money on that fancy Scotch 2nd likes and a few spliffs:)
Also, I would not have seen Vad's response to anything our 2nd_ave might have asked him, as I have not been over to Cara Community since the last time someone told me there was a funny pissing match going on over there, so I wouldn't have seen it. I find Bill very boring and the Cara Community have decisively revealed themselves over the years to be a bunch of sheep, even more clueless than myself.
Years ago BTW there was a very provacative and interesting post at CC accusing them of "groupthink" and explaining some of it's effects. It really struck a chord with the sheeple and Bill was agitated in response. I did not author it but I do concur with that post, and much of it's content.
Finally, anytime you lay out money in the stock market you are risking the money outright, as well as in the sense you mean, the money-at-risk portion of the capital. What I should have said was, I don't personally find that kind of return, what is it, less than half of one percent compelling. My opinion.
Anyway, recognize that all I was asking for is the fucking annualized returns, since he is the guy putting himself forward as an expert qualified to help manage money...right? That's all I was asking for, so let's leave the vitriol out of this, k? Oh and one more little thing....I always liked Vad, never slagged him and actually have never really said anything critical about him ever, not then, not now. My beef was with Bill, or vice-versa.
Kyle,
I can understand Vad not being able to reveal exact percentage gains/losses as so much of the game involves how you enter and how long you hold, which would vary from member to member. All I'm wondering is, why has NOBODY told us ANYTHING about how much/little they are making/losing over there? Meaning, if it were such a money train wouldn't that news get out, and wouldn't it be in Vad's interest for it to?
shark -- I recall someone (a newbie?) asking him that in one of the logs and his reply was that he felt he already put enough info out there in a public log wrt his long/short calls, break-level entries, stop placement & general tutorial discussions that he didn't feel he owed anyone any more info than what he already provided. I can respect that & his trading approach certainly isn't for everyone.
I know abiout his operatiion what I can gain from his posts, trading logs and books. Far from inside knowledge which for some reason you decided I possess.
The rest of your post is irrelevant or incoherent. His "group" is just separate private traders; none of them disclose their personal financial circumstances, nor any can be expected to. Sonmehow it seems suspicious for you, which tells more about you than anyone else.
I really like Vad, he's always been friendly which is big in my book. I should check in on those guys but maybe I'm afraid it would change my game too much.
Perhaps if I were intending on trading for the rest of my life, but I'm only trying to buy into a bottomed-out market to ride the recovery and following that, renegotiate my real estate positions.
I must have missed that exchange but I certainly can see how he can feel this way. Not even speaking of two instance when he went aheasd and troubled himself enough to provide audited records: http://www.realitytrader.com/vadrecord.html
Maybe he doesn't feel that he needs to prove himself anymore. Maybe it goes beyond privacy limits he sets for himself now. Maybe it's something else. Why not ask him instead of speculating and implying that something unseemly is going on, as sharkie-boy seems to do repeatedly? I don't remember Vad ever shying away from direct answers to honest questions.
Also, Vad (to the best of my knowledge) doesn't trade in many of the stocks mentioned here. As Anon suggests, he trades in items that he can get out of quickly (LVS, RIMM, X, etc.) Can you imagine trying to get out of PAL, RBY, GMO, other 'chicken scratch' stuff, etc. w/ such large positions??? Oh Hell No.....
Speaking of chicken scratch, if Vad were really a great trader he might be capable of sneaking in and out of CADC on a daily basis. But no, he has to play the liquid stuff, where premium is high... he, he! ;)
I met Vad at the '09 Cara conference...really nice guy, very willing to explain and answer all questions. I'm not interested in any details at all re his actual returns. I wasn't aware of the link you provided. I hope he is very successful and keeps providing his logs for those (like me) who are trying to learn how to do this stuff.
"GENERAL MOLY ANNOUNCES COMPLETION OF PRELIMINARY DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT
LAKEWOOD, COLORADO - August 19, 2010, General Moly (NYSE Amex and TSX: GMO) announced that on Friday, August 13, the Bureau of Land Management's (BLM) contractor completed the Preliminary Draft Environmental Impact Statement (PDEIS), which was delivered to the cooperating agencies on Wednesday, August 18. Cooperating agencies, including the County of Eureka, the National Park Service, and the Nevada Division of Wildlife (NDOW) will have 25 business days to review the PDEIS and to provide comments to the BLM, which will form the basis of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS).
The 25 business day review period will close September 23, after which the BLM will determine what changes, if any, are needed in the PDEIS before moving forward with publication of the DEIS. The Company continues to anticipate publication of the DEIS later this year and receipt of its Record of Decision by mid-2011."
As a strictly legal matter I can certainly appreciate Vad's personal reluctance to disclose performance numbers. If you don't have to do it in order to get customers, well then, why give the lawyers material with which to hang you from your own petard. Believe me, I can appreciate that concept. If you haven't been fucked by laws written to protect vested interests well, then you haven't really been fucked:)
However nothing either of you have said lessens in any way the relevance of the info in question nor my desire to discover it, whether it personally interests you or not.
Truth is, as you both can imagine, what I would most prefer is for someone to tell me that you can do 40-50 percent per year if you follow all his instructions to the letter. If that were the case, I would merely make a sefish economic decision and participate, right? So still I wonder.....Why can't anyone even ballpark it for us so we know what the hell we're talking about? Meaning, I fail to appreciate, given the context of the thing, reluctance to fully discover all we can about this matter on either of your parts.
Kyle - just starting to play around with different combo's of indicators. Currently I am working with keltner channels, stochastic (fast - i know it gives more false signals but i'm swinging for the fences), macd, i do incorporate rsi, and exponential moving average (planning with the different time frames). this a.m. on sso, looked like solid support 35.24, but within 30 seconds of my trade it blew straight thru it.
trying to get familiar with the different indicators and creating a method based on 2-4 which complement each other. i know i am not breaking any new ground just trying to develop a kit of tools which work with my trading style/objectives.....open to any suggestions.
btw - i have been overlaying the pivot points, thx again,
For the last time, as you don't seem to listen to anyone but yourself:
1. He posted his own audited records twice in each instance esceeding your 40-50% request. 2. He posts his calls every day for years, unedited, easy to track if one is inclined to summarize his performance.
What more do you want? But no, you insist on him, or someone else (what's with this "can anyone tell me" asking someone here to do the work your you??) to go over calls, add them in different ways as he calls different exits for scalpers and daytraders, and different entries depending on degree of aggressiveness, and provide you with all the outcomes. If he is not willing to add this workload - kudos to him. To me, it's only another confirmation of his success as a TRADER, allowing him to do as much as he wants on a business side.
for the bulls amongst us, hopefully that bounce off 1070 will hold....otherwise i may need to end up moving to nor cal and driving one on Mark's water trucks for a living.
good luck Mark/vb with your energy plays. I seem to end up w/CP looking at all the foreign/alt energy stocks.
that's what makes a market, differing opinions, after speaking to my corp dev guys I feel even better about INTC and just added more at 18.96.....this is not a trade, rather a medium buy and hold. let's see where they are after 90 days or so in selling their gtm to the market.
I guess man. It's just that Vad's primary profession is as a day trader w/ some book sales, etc. It's almost like you're asking for the guys tax return % gain, which really isn't fair game IMHO... OK, enough of this topic...1070 holding so far, but RSI rollover suggest 1060 next in line...
vb - I still like PAL and looking to add actually even though their gold mine didn't meet expectation there just might be a pleasant surprise in store. It's the palladium play I like most but if gold actually does a moonshot leaving Pd in the dust, the Sleepy Giant might just save some behinds from destruction?
EBAY - TOF, just out of curiosity, how do you think the repeal of Bush tax cuts and/or the new requirement for reporting all small financial transactions might affect internet businesses?
There are certainly two edges to that knife in terms of how these new rules are implemented, if at all, but since you're an internet business dude thought you might have formed some opinions...
CP = I honestly don't know enough about them to give you an opinion. I just know that more and more people are using Paypal these days. I can tell just based on the percent of total payments using paypal on my business. It was an absolute heist for eBay.
"David - Natty is lookin' pretty good here, you still following this one?"
I agree, CP. I already have a large position in UNG/HNUZF and I am debating whether I should add to it now or wait for it to drop below $6.70 as in my original plan. The storage report is definitely bullish long-term (the ratio of the current storage to the one seen last year keeps going down steadily), but the *reaction* to that good report is bearish, and we are supposed to look at the reaction, right? So I am waiting for now, but if the ratio I mentioned keeps going down and UNG goes below $6.70, I'll sell a truckload of $7 puts on it.
EBAY - Yea, more specifically, wondering if the new reporting requirements might squash some of that business traffic. Was also wondering if the sale of some used stuff at a loss might cut the other way and spur business.
Could be a wash and not worth consideration. Call me bozo, it's hard to ignore EBAY's recent price action.
I see that the indices have flattened out over the past few hours and are ready to start their customary late day rally. I have just placed a sell stop order at $21.95 for all my 500 shares of TWM. Also, looking at the IWM 6-month chart, today's drop merely brings it down to a strong support area, and I wouldn't be very surprised if it rallies from here. If I am wrong, then I still have a bunch of index put options to protect my downside.
Now, for some day trading fun, I placed a buy stop order on TNA at $36 for 200 shares, so as to catch the EOD rally if it indeed materializes. If my buy stop is hit, I'll place a sell stop at $35.20, at the level where TNA made an intraday double bottom. So this seems like a clear technical trade.
I listen to KCBS radio when I'm pretending to work. All they could talk about was how great this is for INTC and internet security. These were tech comments, not stock price comments.
I agree with JB. At this price, I'm more than happy to wait.
Even after I gave a link (which by the by anyone as curious about someone else's money as you are could find easily with a few clicks), you ask Kyle whether he can confirm, not troubling yourself to go and look... LOL, and you wonder why your lazy ass invokes "gesticulation and animosity."
Nalco - Maker of corexit, has pretty controversial connections with BP. I like the idea of water treatment, word is developing countries are struggling with this subject. Not sure how Nalco fits in there but if so, could be a lucrative play. The world isn't going to stop need certain chemical compounds either, and APD/the like are my interest there.
It's a big haystack, isn't it?
I've been considering DCI in water treatment arena, a very good company (~$42 accumulation zone?).
What does the world need most and who's best positioned to provide those products?
by the way, I'm looking at REDF over the past few days. It spiked up on heavy volume...over 600k shares when average is around 50k or 60k. Since then it has traded over 700k shares and the price hasn't fallen back. I take this as quite bullish...and volume continues to be above average.
LOL, someone owes something to shark, once again... "true identity" this time, probably because he sharkie is so open with his. Here is the deal, you little turd: Give me YOUR true identity and when I am in your neck of the woods, I will make sure to introduce myself to you in person. Not only you'll get what you wished for, but you also will get a chance to kick my ass, just as you threatened.
Do not bew afraid of too long wait, I am often in that area. Let's see how well your actions go with your words, little piece of shit.
I guess that the customary EOD rally was so obvious, that too many people jumped on that train too early, and so some shakeout needed to happen. The shakeout did not go all the way down to the double bottom level, so I am still onboard. In order to reduce my maximum loss, I decided to move my sell stop to $35.80/$35.78 for 200 shares I purchased at $36 and then place a sell limit at $36.82 for 100 shares I purchased at $35.82.
Watching the chart for testosterone today (nasdaq ticker (A-HOLE). Seems to be trending upward with no sign of growing up. The sector is running off the charts along with aggression, malice and immaturity. I hoping for a pullback.
Glad I made a little bit out of FAZ & BGU today, but the 1 year chart of SPX (1150 Jan 10 -- 1219 Apr 10 -- 1129 Aug 10) looks like we're rolling over...
scratch my note about REDF...they dropped the crap out of it (about 10%) on 20k shares. Might buy some more at the $1.85 level. this bad boy is volatile!
The customary EOD rally did not work out too well today. I have added the 100 shares back to my sell stop at $35.80, and as soon as I did it, the stop was hit. So I am out of TNA for a $40 loss.
I forgot to mention that my sell limit order for 250 shares of WATG at $8.19 was hit this morning (for the shares I purchased at $8), and then the sell stop was hit at $8 for the 250 shares I purchased at $9 but then lowered their cost basis to $7 by selling WATG puts that expired. So I have even more cash now to wage the UNG battle if it keeps going down.
"LAKEWOOD, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--General Moly (NYSE Amex: GMO) (TSX: GMO - News) announced that Eureka Moly LLC, the Company's 80% owned subsidiary, entered into an agreement with the Eureka Producers' Cooperative (the EPC) whereby Eureka Moly will fund a Sustainability Trust (the Trust) in exchange for the cooperation of the EPC with respect to Eureka Moly's water rights and permitting of the Mt. Hope project.
Based on the agreement, the EPC will dismiss its judicial appeal and withdraw its protests to Eureka Moly's water applications and will not file any further protests to any change applications Eureka Moly files prior to production from the Mt. Hope project. Additionally, the EPC has agreed not to oppose, delay, or protest any of Eureka Moly's mining and milling plans set forth in the Plan of Operations filed with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), including efforts to obtain permits for the Mt Hope project from federal, state and local authorities and agencies. The EPC will support Eureka Moly in its efforts to cause other Protestants or Appellants to end their protests or appeals to any permits or approvals required for the Mt. Hope project."
I am withdrawing my buy limit orders on SD for now, as I still have not cleared up all the issues with the SD rep. So far I have computed that with their switch from gas to oil, they are expected to produce 67Bcfe in 2H2010 and make $450M in revenue (assuming they sell their oil at $65 and NG at $4), which is about $6.7 per Mcfe. Their cash cost seems to be in the $5.43-$5.63 per Mcfe according to the company's projections, but I am not sure if I am reading them right and so I want to clear that up with the rep. They are expecting to grow their oil production 30% in 2011 and leave their NG production the same, unless NG starts a sustainable rally. So things will definitely get better for them in the future -- I just have to figure out how bad they are now and where the bottom of their stock price might be this quarter.
The high-yield bond spreads (CDX.NA.HY) are still pretty low -- at the level where they were on June 21, when IWM was higher than it is now. A real crisis always coincides with exploding high-yield spreads, so I would have to say that we are still in a range-bound market.
Last night I mentioned that I wanted to make a "graceful exit" from my remaining TWM position, and today I was given that chance (at least I didn't sell out of fear during a short squeeze). Let's see if this exit actually turns out to be a profitable decision in the weeks ahead. :)
Retail, RTH, has been going sideways since June and hasn't risen above a 70 RSI since the middle of April. It did rise a couple bucks last week but it came right back today. MA's still haven't crossed up and it's still below the 50 and 200 DMA's.
CDE sideways since March.definitely up to resistance today, then back off again.
TLT, up over $2, closed up $1.50, but rsi's in the 70's and distribution zone according to the rsi tool.
I am done with keeping large ultrashort positions. From now on, I will only short this market using put options (that have a small maximum loss) and only after large short squeezes.
CP- a fitting Freudian slip for a trader.
ReplyDeleteCP- Too funny man. Little boys are babies. Mine included.
ReplyDeleteHi
ReplyDeleteWish I had something valuable to say but I have No clues on this market. Everyday seems like a Wild guess. Intuition isn't even working for me!
oh well..
Enjoying this great weather and Glad we have clean air and water here in CA
VB- Having something valuable to say has never stopped me.... :) !!
ReplyDeleteMark - Reminds me of the small male dog I had years ago who somehow broke his leg (hit by a car?) and after having spent the customary amount of money at the veterinarian healed completely and walked without limp. Until he was scolded, then his limp magically came right back.
ReplyDeleteCan't remember if the limp was ambidextrous or not, wouldn't surprise me if it was though...
Based on what I see going on in Asia so far tonight, I'm glad I wasn't discouraged enough to sell today, oil kinda looks cheap here to me too.
ReplyDeleteHi VB, Florida's gonna become lost if you're gone too long.
I just watched the Kyle Bass interview and decided that I should stop fighting the hard battle with making money on the ultrashorts and should instead focus on trading precious metals from the long side. All my shorts will only be in the form of some SPY and IWM puts. So now I just need to exit "gracefully" my remaining 500 shares of TWM. Or at least make sure that I don't increase this position anymore. In that light, I am really glad that I sold some of my TWM after hours into the temporary market dip.
ReplyDeletetech consolidation is accelerating.....damn if i can figure out who is next.
ReplyDeleteJobless claims at nine-month high- NOT good...
ReplyDeleteBuying INTC @ 19.06
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteWhere on earth do they keep finding all these people to fire?
Dollar doing nose dive, so it's giving stocks a lift.
Do we one day reach a point where we capitalist pig speculators cease to consider jobless claims much of a factor?
I have learned the hard way never to carry into Thursday:)
I really believe online security will in fact be a growth story. INTC is making the right move here.
ReplyDeleteSomeone in Vad's group gave a link to this market map...may be of interest...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.stockmapper.com/STXtrac.html
Man, I can't believe the number of sorry asses selling their INTC shares this morning. No doubt they believe INTC overpaid for McAfee. Wrong.
ReplyDeleteJB- What's your take on INTC. I would love to add here.
ReplyDeleteMark- I'm scheduled for a focus group session this evening on identity theft. I think security will be a hot button issue in the next few years. Consider how many financial transactions we make online these days.
ReplyDeleteKyle,
ReplyDeleteHas your friend ever discussed annulized returns based on Vad's picks?
I personally know that laying out 50 thou to make 300 bucks isn't my idea of risk/reward, but whatever.
It's a fucking mystery and is probably destined to remain so:)
2nd- I agree. Hoping to get JB's ST take.
ReplyDeleteINTC- I picked some up for all the kids at the open, around 18.99. Sure, it could drop another 10-15% oer the ST, but it will return >100% over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteHey Guys - called some of my corp dev friends already this a.m. to see what they have to say re: INTC. Certainly agree security is vitally important esp as we move to enterprise wide cloud deployments.
ReplyDeleteHard for me to have a take in the short term, they are going run it as a wholly owned sub, not sure why they would do that, in the medium to long term integrating security into their various product lines is the real money maker imo, the key will be how fast can they do it and at what cost.
in general i would be a buyer of intc on weakness - the strong continue to get stronger.
now i need someone to step up and buy infa and lwsn!
3x position INTC @19.08, not a trade. will give it 90 days, by then their new security gtm/value prop should be widely distributed and understood.
ReplyDeleteWhoa- windstorm blowing in....
ReplyDeleteshark--
ReplyDeleteVad avoids those disclosures completely. Others there will indicate whether they are going 1000sh, 500sh or 300sh on a trade. Agree w/ you completely on r/r issues. Most I will put down on those types of trades is 15-18k usually on 2-20 price range.
INTC @ 18.90
ReplyDeletesharkie boy,
ReplyDeletemaybe it wouldn't be such a "fucking mystery" for you if you paid any fucking attention or gave it more fucking thought than you give to fucking weed that makes you even more fucking brain-dead. Then you may have noticed that Vad commented on this in his response to 2nd a few weeks ago by pointing out that laying out 50K you do NOT put 50K at risk - you risk only the amount you designate as a stop size x position size. Thus, your very idea of how risk-reward is calculated is wrong. Makes sense now?
looks like another one of those days/
ReplyDeleteOK, so more sorry asses jumped off the train...
ReplyDeleteSSO back in the IRA @ 35.30.
ReplyDeleteAll of my energy stocks are holding up quite well.
ReplyDeleteDamn, X is STILL green.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you guys think I'm crazy, but buying in this area has worked 3 times in a row for me. Can it be 4? :)
ReplyDeletewhat are you buying Mark besides intc?
ReplyDeleteI am thinking the only way to play this market is dividend stocks. Win, etp ect..
Glad I bailed on all of my holdings except REDF. nice to have some luck again...although I clearly jinxed myself.
ReplyDeleteWell here we go again...
ReplyDeleteBullish natty storage report...
ReplyDeleteTrading is 90% emotional, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteVB- I'm long XCO/SWN/PXP on the energy/nat gas side.
ReplyDeleteLong INTC/DELL on the tech side.
Long GMO/HUN on the materials/chemical side.
I agree on the divy play if you want longer term exposure. I'm looking for 10-15% returns on a shorter time frame. GL!!
btw, INTC pays 0.16/quarter dividend, which right now works out to about a 3.4% yield.
ReplyDeleteGS back under the 20DMA
ReplyDeletesso@35.24, for a trade
ReplyDeleteso much for my new indicators....only a few pennies more then sso will get stopped out
ReplyDeletesso gone, thought i got right in at support, guess not
ReplyDeleteWouldn't that be a spectacle if GS were to retest the lower trend line around ~$125? I thought yesterday it might close above the 20DMA but no dice.
ReplyDeleteTumblin' Dice:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvSgUH0Wn-M
INTC - I like that move, you guys...
ReplyDeleteRBY - Freight train.
ReplyDeleteSo much for the UNG upmove
ReplyDeleteGL guys. SWN about to go green :)))
ReplyDeleteKyle- That move in UNG makes no sense. Simply a reaction to the overall market? I still love gas here. GL.
ReplyDeleteUNG - Sold some Jan 7 puts
ReplyDeletejb - If I may ask what indicators are you looking at??? I've been using SRSI & MMA criteria. Currently waiting for SRSI > 35 on increasing volume to enter BGU trade...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/MDAxMjQwZD
Anon,
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering who you are and why, if you know so much about Vad's operation, are you are so hesitant to disclose the very information that could bring my initial query to a satisfying intellectual conclusion? Meaning, if you know the numbers give us the damn numbers or.....I'll buy you a drink and 2nd and Mark will roll you after you're soused:) We will spend you pocket money on that fancy Scotch 2nd likes and a few spliffs:)
Also, I would not have seen Vad's response to anything our 2nd_ave might have asked him, as I have not been over to Cara Community since the last time someone told me there was a funny pissing match going on over there, so I wouldn't have seen it. I find Bill very boring and the Cara Community have decisively revealed themselves over the years to be a bunch of sheep, even more clueless than myself.
Years ago BTW there was a very provacative and interesting post at CC accusing them of "groupthink" and explaining some of it's effects. It really struck a chord with the sheeple and Bill was agitated in response. I did not author it but I do concur with that post, and much of it's content.
Finally, anytime you lay out money in the stock market you are risking the money outright, as well as in the sense you mean, the money-at-risk portion of the capital. What I should have said was, I don't personally find that kind of return, what is it, less than half of one percent compelling. My opinion.
Anyway, recognize that all I was asking for is the fucking annualized returns, since he is the guy putting himself forward as an expert qualified to help manage money...right? That's all I was asking for, so let's leave the vitriol out of this, k? Oh and one more little thing....I always liked Vad, never slagged him and actually have never really said anything critical about him ever, not then, not now. My beef was with Bill, or vice-versa.
Kyle,
I can understand Vad not being able to reveal exact percentage gains/losses as so much of the game involves how you enter and how long you hold, which would vary from member to member. All I'm wondering is, why has NOBODY told us ANYTHING about how much/little they are making/losing over there? Meaning, if it were such a money train wouldn't that news get out, and wouldn't it be in Vad's interest for it to?
correction on 5 min, SRSI(35) > 0.35 or so
ReplyDeleteDavid - Natty is lookin' pretty good here, you still following this one?
ReplyDeleteshark -- I recall someone (a newbie?) asking him that in one of the logs and his reply was that he felt he already put enough info out there in a public log wrt his long/short calls, break-level entries, stop placement & general tutorial discussions that he didn't feel he owed anyone any more info than what he already provided. I can respect that & his trading approach certainly isn't for everyone.
ReplyDeleteI know abiout his operatiion what I can gain from his posts, trading logs and books. Far from inside knowledge which for some reason you decided I possess.
ReplyDeleteThe rest of your post is irrelevant or incoherent. His "group" is just separate private traders; none of them disclose their personal financial circumstances, nor any can be expected to. Sonmehow it seems suspicious for you, which tells more about you than anyone else.
I really like Vad, he's always been friendly which is big in my book. I should check in on those guys but maybe I'm afraid it would change my game too much.
ReplyDeletePerhaps if I were intending on trading for the rest of my life, but I'm only trying to buy into a bottomed-out market to ride the recovery and following that, renegotiate my real estate positions.
Kyle,
ReplyDeleteI must have missed that exchange but I certainly can see how he can feel this way. Not even speaking of two instance when he went aheasd and troubled himself enough to provide audited records: http://www.realitytrader.com/vadrecord.html
Maybe he doesn't feel that he needs to prove himself anymore. Maybe it goes beyond privacy limits he sets for himself now. Maybe it's something else. Why not ask him instead of speculating and implying that something unseemly is going on, as sharkie-boy seems to do repeatedly? I don't remember Vad ever shying away from direct answers to honest questions.
shark--
ReplyDeleteAlso, Vad (to the best of my knowledge) doesn't trade in many of the stocks mentioned here. As Anon suggests, he trades in items that he can get out of quickly (LVS, RIMM, X, etc.) Can you imagine trying to get out of PAL, RBY, GMO, other 'chicken scratch' stuff, etc. w/ such large positions??? Oh Hell No.....
jeez - today might be the start of crash week.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of chicken scratch, if Vad were really a great trader he might be capable of sneaking in and out of CADC on a daily basis. But no, he has to play the liquid stuff, where premium is high... he, he! ;)
ReplyDeleteAnon--
ReplyDeleteI met Vad at the '09 Cara conference...really nice guy, very willing to explain and answer all questions. I'm not interested in any details at all re his actual returns. I wasn't aware of the link you provided. I hope he is very successful and keeps providing his logs for those (like me) who are trying to learn how to do this stuff.
tof - anything can happen, but that SPX almost looks like a H&S mid-July to now (1100-1129-1100)
ReplyDeleteGMO - Progress update: BLM's Preliminary Draft Environmental Impact Study submitted.
ReplyDelete"GENERAL MOLY ANNOUNCES COMPLETION OF PRELIMINARY DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT
LAKEWOOD, COLORADO - August 19, 2010, General Moly (NYSE Amex and TSX: GMO) announced that on Friday, August 13, the Bureau of Land Management's (BLM) contractor completed the Preliminary Draft Environmental Impact Statement (PDEIS), which was delivered to the cooperating agencies on Wednesday, August 18. Cooperating agencies, including the County of Eureka, the National Park Service, and the Nevada Division of Wildlife (NDOW) will have 25 business days to review the PDEIS and to provide comments to the BLM, which will form the basis of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS).
The 25 business day review period will close September 23, after which the BLM will determine what changes, if any, are needed in the PDEIS before moving forward with publication of the DEIS. The Company continues to anticipate publication of the DEIS later this year and receipt of its Record of Decision by mid-2011."
Guys,
ReplyDeleteAs a strictly legal matter I can certainly appreciate Vad's personal reluctance to disclose performance numbers. If you don't have to do it in order to get customers, well then, why give the lawyers material with which to hang you from your own petard. Believe me, I can appreciate that concept. If you haven't been fucked by laws written to protect vested interests well, then you haven't really been fucked:)
However nothing either of you have said lessens in any way the relevance of the info in question nor my desire to discover it, whether it personally interests you or not.
Truth is, as you both can imagine, what I would most prefer is for someone to tell me that you can do 40-50 percent per year if you follow all his instructions to the letter. If that were the case, I would merely make a sefish economic decision and participate, right? So still I wonder.....Why can't anyone even ballpark it for us so we know what the hell we're talking about? Meaning, I fail to appreciate, given the context of the thing, reluctance to fully discover all we can about this matter on either of your parts.
I'm not asking his jockstrap size or whether or not he likes Sevruga with his Stoli....It aint personal boys, it's just bizness:)
ReplyDeleteBGU - Little reversal on piss-ant volume over lunchtime & the big-O is talking....
ReplyDeleteU$D - I sure hope the dollar doesn't start an uptrend.
ReplyDeleteAnybody think silver might break out soon?
Kyle - just starting to play around with different combo's of indicators. Currently I am working with keltner channels, stochastic (fast - i know it gives more false signals but i'm swinging for the fences), macd, i do incorporate rsi, and exponential moving average (planning with the different time frames). this a.m. on sso, looked like solid support 35.24, but within 30 seconds of my trade it blew straight thru it.
ReplyDeletetrying to get familiar with the different indicators and creating a method based on 2-4 which complement each other. i know i am not breaking any new ground just trying to develop a kit of tools which work with my trading style/objectives.....open to any suggestions.
btw - i have been overlaying the pivot points, thx again,
For the last time, as you don't seem to listen to anyone but yourself:
ReplyDelete1. He posted his own audited records twice in each instance esceeding your 40-50% request.
2. He posts his calls every day for years, unedited, easy to track if one is inclined to summarize his performance.
What more do you want? But no, you insist on him, or someone else (what's with this "can anyone tell me" asking someone here to do the work your you??) to go over calls, add them in different ways as he calls different exits for scalpers and daytraders, and different entries depending on degree of aggressiveness, and provide you with all the outcomes. If he is not willing to add this workload - kudos to him. To me, it's only another confirmation of his success as a TRADER, allowing him to do as much as he wants on a business side.
thanks mark, I'll take a look at those energy/natural gas stocks.
ReplyDeletefor the bulls amongst us, hopefully that bounce off 1070 will hold....otherwise i may need to end up moving to nor cal and driving one on Mark's water trucks for a living.
ReplyDeletegood luck Mark/vb with your energy plays. I seem to end up w/CP looking at all the foreign/alt energy stocks.
INTC- I'm pulling out @ 18.95. Here's the thing: there's a ton of supply on stocks across the board. Asks are getting hit all over the place.
ReplyDeleteBack to 100% cash.
This is just an 'intuitive' call, and I wouldn't necessarily let that change anyone's LT outlook.
that's what makes a market, differing opinions, after speaking to my corp dev guys I feel even better about INTC and just added more at 18.96.....this is not a trade, rather a medium buy and hold. let's see where they are after 90 days or so in selling their gtm to the market.
ReplyDelete"He posted his own audited records twice in each instance esceeding your 40-50% request."
ReplyDeletelet's review what we've done and learned today.
A) I asked whether anyone knew what Vad's annulized returns are.
B) After much gesticulation and personal animosity on your part, you told me.
Kyle can you confirm?
shark--
ReplyDeleteI guess man. It's just that Vad's primary profession is as a day trader w/ some book sales, etc. It's almost like you're asking for the guys tax return % gain, which really isn't fair game IMHO... OK, enough of this topic...1070 holding so far, but RSI rollover suggest 1060 next in line...
CSIQ, RBY, CDE, GRS, GSS not bad....
ReplyDeletewho is in RBY? Not me, I am in pal and nxg :( and on the
ReplyDeletepitty pott
vb - I still like PAL and looking to add actually even though their gold mine didn't meet expectation there just might be a pleasant surprise in store. It's the palladium play I like most but if gold actually does a moonshot leaving Pd in the dust, the Sleepy Giant might just save some behinds from destruction?
ReplyDeleteI'm rather surprised you took an interest, GL!
EBAY - TOF, just out of curiosity, how do you think the repeal of Bush tax cuts and/or the new requirement for reporting all small financial transactions might affect internet businesses?
ReplyDeleteThere are certainly two edges to that knife in terms of how these new rules are implemented, if at all, but since you're an internet business dude thought you might have formed some opinions...
SPX IC&H @ 1072??? ~ FAZ C&H @ 15.90???
ReplyDeleteCP = I honestly don't know enough about them to give you an opinion. I just know that more and more people are using Paypal these days. I can tell just based on the percent of total payments using paypal on my business. It was an absolute heist for eBay.
ReplyDelete"David - Natty is lookin' pretty good here, you still following this one?"
ReplyDeleteI agree, CP. I already have a large position in UNG/HNUZF and I am debating whether I should add to it now or wait for it to drop below $6.70 as in my original plan. The storage report is definitely bullish long-term (the ratio of the current storage to the one seen last year keeps going down steadily), but the *reaction* to that good report is bearish, and we are supposed to look at the reaction, right? So I am waiting for now, but if the ratio I mentioned keeps going down and UNG goes below $6.70, I'll sell a truckload of $7 puts on it.
TBT managed to regain 31.50
ReplyDeletehi cp,
ReplyDeleteyes agreed, and that is why I am holding pal - thanks for the emotional support.
What do you think of Nalco.
EBAY - Yea, more specifically, wondering if the new reporting requirements might squash some of that business traffic. Was also wondering if the sale of some used stuff at a loss might cut the other way and spur business.
ReplyDeleteCould be a wash and not worth consideration. Call me bozo, it's hard to ignore EBAY's recent price action.
I see that the indices have flattened out over the past few hours and are ready to start their customary late day rally. I have just placed a sell stop order at $21.95 for all my 500 shares of TWM. Also, looking at the IWM 6-month chart, today's drop merely brings it down to a strong support area, and I wouldn't be very surprised if it rallies from here. If I am wrong, then I still have a bunch of index put options to protect my downside.
ReplyDeleteOK, that didn't take long. :) My stop at $21.95 was seen, was hit, and TWM immediately bounced back to $22...
ReplyDeleteVB- PXP and SWN are the best of the group.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually not getting hit that hard.
Now, for some day trading fun, I placed a buy stop order on TNA at $36 for 200 shares, so as to catch the EOD rally if it indeed materializes. If my buy stop is hit, I'll place a sell stop at $35.20, at the level where TNA made an intraday double bottom. So this seems like a clear technical trade.
ReplyDeleteNatty- Probably taking into account the -7.7 Philly Fed # in regards to industrial demand for gas.
ReplyDeleteLook at PXP run after hitting what I have as support.
I have no inside take on Vad's trading record, but I consider him a real stand up guy and am glad I can call him a "friend".
OK, that didn't take long: my buy stop for TNA at $36 was seen, was hit, but TNA *keeps* going up. The customary EOD rally is here. :)
ReplyDeleteI'm going to see if HEK REALLY goes on sale :)
ReplyDeleteI listen to KCBS radio when I'm pretending to work. All they could talk about was how great this is for INTC and internet security. These were tech comments, not stock price comments.
ReplyDeleteI agree with JB. At this price, I'm more than happy to wait.
Even after I gave a link (which by the by anyone as curious about someone else's money as you are could find easily with a few clicks), you ask Kyle whether he can confirm, not troubling yourself to go and look... LOL, and you wonder why your lazy ass invokes "gesticulation and animosity."
ReplyDeleteNalco - Maker of corexit, has pretty controversial connections with BP. I like the idea of water treatment, word is developing countries are struggling with this subject. Not sure how Nalco fits in there but if so, could be a lucrative play. The world isn't going to stop need certain chemical compounds either, and APD/the like are my interest there.
ReplyDeleteIt's a big haystack, isn't it?
I've been considering DCI in water treatment arena, a very good company (~$42 accumulation zone?).
What does the world need most and who's best positioned to provide those products?
Added 100 more shares of TNA at $35.82 and added these shares to my sell stop limit at $35.20/$35.18.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDeleteNo offense but you really owe us your "true identity".
This kind of talk could get your ass kicked. Even by me:)
I toyed with your bullshit today because there's nothing else going on.
Now I say go fuck yourself in the ass...ok?
by the way, I'm looking at REDF over the past few days. It spiked up on heavy volume...over 600k shares when average is around 50k or 60k. Since then it has traded over 700k shares and the price hasn't fallen back. I take this as quite bullish...and volume continues to be above average.
ReplyDeleteThe customary EOD rally has stumbled, probably because I tried boarding it for a day trade...
ReplyDeleteI don't trust this selloff.
ReplyDeleteFD: Staying long here.
REDF - Yea, I noticed that too and agree it seems bullish.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I'm in the same boat...tried BGU and we'll see.....double bottom @ 43.60...but WTFO
ReplyDeleteonce more into the breech - sso@35.04...ride it to the close
ReplyDeleteLOCM - TOF, check this one out...
ReplyDeleteDVN on the watch list. Well, it always is, but I'll actually pay attention to it :)
ReplyDeleteAEO also.
ReplyDeletechicken - i didn't even need to check out LOCM...i believe that is local.com right? it's a crap site in my mind. not worth wasting time on.
ReplyDeleteLibor/TED continue to drop.
ReplyDeleteLOL, someone owes something to shark, once again... "true identity" this time, probably because he sharkie is so open with his. Here is the deal, you little turd: Give me YOUR true identity and when I am in your neck of the woods, I will make sure to introduce myself to you in person. Not only you'll get what you wished for, but you also will get a chance to kick my ass, just as you threatened.
ReplyDeleteDo not bew afraid of too long wait, I am often in that area. Let's see how well your actions go with your words, little piece of shit.
i'm going to hold on to sso a bit longer, we could ramp into the close
ReplyDeleteI guess that the customary EOD rally was so obvious, that too many people jumped on that train too early, and so some shakeout needed to happen. The shakeout did not go all the way down to the double bottom level, so I am still onboard. In order to reduce my maximum loss, I decided to move my sell stop to $35.80/$35.78 for 200 shares I purchased at $36 and then place a sell limit at $36.82 for 100 shares I purchased at $35.82.
ReplyDeleteWatching the chart for testosterone today (nasdaq ticker (A-HOLE). Seems to be trending upward with no sign of growing up.
ReplyDeleteThe sector is running off the charts along with aggression, malice and immaturity.
I hoping for a pullback.
vgz.. up 14% -
ReplyDeleteon a lighter note, my stepdaughter just made first round of american idol! Tryouts today were in SF.
:)
Screw it- back into INTC.
ReplyDeletewelcome back buddy!
ReplyDeleteGlad I made a little bit out of FAZ & BGU today, but the 1 year chart of SPX (1150 Jan 10 -- 1219 Apr 10 -- 1129 Aug 10) looks like we're rolling over...
ReplyDeletei'll probably hate myself in the morning but I am hanging on for 6 more cents on sso
ReplyDeletescratch my note about REDF...they dropped the crap out of it (about 10%) on 20k shares. Might buy some more at the $1.85 level. this bad boy is volatile!
ReplyDeleteThe customary EOD rally did not work out too well today. I have added the 100 shares back to my sell stop at $35.80, and as soon as I did it, the stop was hit. So I am out of TNA for a $40 loss.
ReplyDeleteif the market is up in the morning tomorrow i would highly suggest shorting it for a trade.
ReplyDeleteexcellent beat by Dell!!!!
ReplyDeleteJB- So far it looks like you nailed DELL. Great call! Got to run.
ReplyDeleteOH no!!!! Now it's diving :))))))...Later!
ReplyDeleteI forgot to mention that my sell limit order for 250 shares of WATG at $8.19 was hit this morning (for the shares I purchased at $8), and then the sell stop was hit at $8 for the 250 shares I purchased at $9 but then lowered their cost basis to $7 by selling WATG puts that expired. So I have even more cash now to wage the UNG battle if it keeps going down.
ReplyDeletecrap!!! what the hell went so wrong w/dell....they came in just as i expected....cant win for losing..:(
ReplyDeleteLOCM - The shorts must've been all over this one and now they're covering?
ReplyDeleteBC - Check out the short float on this one... I don't like the balance sheet at all but when do these traders cover and what happens when they do?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Update:
ReplyDelete"LAKEWOOD, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--General Moly (NYSE Amex: GMO) (TSX: GMO - News) announced that Eureka Moly LLC, the Company's 80% owned subsidiary, entered into an agreement with the Eureka Producers' Cooperative (the EPC) whereby Eureka Moly will fund a Sustainability Trust (the Trust) in exchange for the cooperation of the EPC with respect to Eureka Moly's water rights and permitting of the Mt. Hope project.
Based on the agreement, the EPC will dismiss its judicial appeal and withdraw its protests to Eureka Moly's water applications and will not file any further protests to any change applications Eureka Moly files prior to production from the Mt. Hope project. Additionally, the EPC has agreed not to oppose, delay, or protest any of Eureka Moly's mining and milling plans set forth in the Plan of Operations filed with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), including efforts to obtain permits for the Mt Hope project from federal, state and local authorities and agencies. The EPC will support Eureka Moly in its efforts to cause other Protestants or Appellants to end their protests or appeals to any permits or approvals required for the Mt. Hope project."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/General-Moly-Announces-bw-72017407.html?x=0&.v=1
I am withdrawing my buy limit orders on SD for now, as I still have not cleared up all the issues with the SD rep. So far I have computed that with their switch from gas to oil, they are expected to produce 67Bcfe in 2H2010 and make $450M in revenue (assuming they sell their oil at $65 and NG at $4), which is about $6.7 per Mcfe. Their cash cost seems to be in the $5.43-$5.63 per Mcfe according to the company's projections, but I am not sure if I am reading them right and so I want to clear that up with the rep. They are expecting to grow their oil production 30% in 2011 and leave their NG production the same, unless NG starts a sustainable rally. So things will definitely get better for them in the future -- I just have to figure out how bad they are now and where the bottom of their stock price might be this quarter.
ReplyDeleteCVS - On sale here again, but what isn't? At least we know this one's not garbage...
ReplyDeleteThe high-yield bond spreads (CDX.NA.HY) are still pretty low -- at the level where they were on June 21, when IWM was higher than it is now. A real crisis always coincides with exploding high-yield spreads, so I would have to say that we are still in a range-bound market.
ReplyDeleteMid-month US GDP figures scheduled for next week should prove interesting.
ReplyDeleteKyle Bass said that he will be flat amazed if Q2GDP is not revised to be below 1%.
ReplyDeleteJCP - Short float 10%, bounced off $20 on it's way back to $15 maybe?
ReplyDeleteRetail was doing quite well this week until today...
ReplyDeleteGPS (The Gap) - good response to earnings after hours tonight.
ReplyDeleteEconomists seem to be underestimating the health of the economy, rings a bell doesn't it?
ReplyDeletePakistan, "China's closest ally", has lost it's entire cotton crop.
ReplyDeleteCDE - Short float 10%, rallied nicely today.
ReplyDeleteLast night I mentioned that I wanted to make a "graceful exit" from my remaining TWM position, and today I was given that chance (at least I didn't sell out of fear during a short squeeze). Let's see if this exit actually turns out to be a profitable decision in the weeks ahead. :)
ReplyDeleteRetail, RTH, has been going sideways since June and hasn't risen above a 70 RSI since the middle of April. It did rise a couple bucks last week but it came right back today.
ReplyDeleteMA's still haven't crossed up and it's still below the 50 and 200 DMA's.
CDE sideways since March.definitely up to resistance today, then back off again.
TLT, up over $2, closed up $1.50, but rsi's in the 70's and distribution zone according to the rsi tool.
WTF? I need a trend or my hands will fall asleep.
I am done with keeping large ultrashort positions. From now on, I will only short this market using put options (that have a small maximum loss) and only after large short squeezes.
ReplyDeleteCDE - The mood there was pretty dour going into earnings August 9th, I nearly bought some.
ReplyDeleteXLY - Lower trend line looks like 28.50 to me, considerably better now than last month.
That rally has probably come to an end.
I'd love to buy some TBT/TMV, hopefully I don't forget to when the opportunity presents itself.
CVS - So what's wrong with this one, not much except for perhaps a looming market crash.
ReplyDeleteBluechips are well situated to weather a stagnant US economy.
ReplyDeleteMWA - I like this company as well, great products but stuck in a dead/dying economy like the rest of us...
ReplyDeleteCDE - This was my observation posted just prior to earnings:
ReplyDeleteBreakout coming? 3-Aug-10 09:37 pm
I don't know much about this company but from what little I've read it could be grossly undervalued.
So I look over the chart and I see what looks like a potential breakout about to occur going into earnings....???
If the markets open up tomorrow I'm most likely going to take it as an opportunity to buy TZA for a daytrade.
ReplyDeleteTOF - The markets will definitely open up tomorrow at 09:30 sharp! ;)
ReplyDeleteha
ReplyDeleteIPSU - My sugar play has done fairly well in both July and August as well.
ReplyDelete