Tuesday, August 3, 2010
8/3/10 I'm So Glad
I don't know what to do, I don't know what to do, I don't know what to do.
I'm tired of weeping, I'm tired of moaning, I'm tired of crying for you.
I'm so glad, I'm so glad
I'm glad, I'm glad, I'm glad
I'm so glad, I'm so glad
I'm glad, I'm glad, I'm glad
'Nuff said.
David- Sometimes a string of 'filler' trades is followed by a series of killer trades that end up making your year. I keep thinking back to 1972-73, two years I'd rather forget. What followed was 1974-75, hands down the two best years of my life. I could say pretty much the same for 1976-78, followed by 1979-80.
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Kyle- Thanks, that's what I thought. I agree and have been moving into those types as well. I have the capital to make enough money on moves of 4-10%ish. I just play them bigger than I did with the little guys.
ReplyDeleteBP's static kill seems to be working. Of course, I thought the same with the top kill, but this seems more controlled.
ReplyDeleteAdding one of MOG's co's. to the watch list. TLM. Great earnings and he is on the prowl. Nice break out and trend break. Not my typical bottom play, but the upside is still there.
ReplyDeleteMutual Fund Cash Levels
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/users/Telestar3d/folders/Jing/media/641b74ca-973b-407c-a327-842b4509bccb
Courtesy Jesse
TOF,
ReplyDeleteYou could be right on gold very short term, but only huge deleveraging can move it down quickly, taking everything else with it, I think.
I look for the weak dollar = strong gold to reassert itself.
Of course I *MIGHT* be a little biased, LOL.
ReplyDelete2nd - what made those years so good/bad? by the way, i meant to ask you about this...a few days ago you mentioned something about how something has made you even sure of the after life...i meant to ask you if you could expand on that whenever u get a chance. i love hearing people's point of view on religion/afterlife for some odd reason. guess i've just always been curious about that stuff.
ReplyDeleteTOF/CB- I'm thinking it's time to see a little dollar strength.
ReplyDeleteNaaaa, I'm not biased...
ReplyDeleteCB- Great pic!! Got one of the boat your looking at?
ReplyDeleteYou might have missed it, but a few days ago I was asking about your race cars. 0-60, top speed.
As soon as I open my big fat mouth, it kinda looks like there's some leaking in the well cap.
ReplyDelete1972-73: Dropped out twice and hit the road. The 'euphoria' of thinking I was going to replay/rewrite 'On The Road' wore off (quickly)- when not working a series of low-paying jobs along the West coast, I was not far from sinking into the underbelly of street life.
ReplyDelete1974-75: After struggling with classes my freshman year at Michigan, I suddenly hit my stride. I aced every class, and found my 'voice' as far as experimenting with speaking my own mind and taking positions on issues. Coincidentally, I also developed a great deal of self-confidence when interacting with others- the insecurity which is the hallmark of adolescence seemed to drop off as easily as removing a cloak.
1976-78: Toxic relationship with a very seductive and manipulative girl from Hong Kong.
1979-80: Followed by two successive relationships that restored my faith in women ;)
Finally gold and other PGM's are moving in the same direction, hopefully this trend continues.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone been following CDE? A little leg work seems to indicate they're the ones sending gold ore from Alaska to China and their earnings are due on the 9th...
The afterlife? No question about it. I hesitate to introduce discussions about religion into the blog, but I have no problem discussing my faith if someone is interested. Obviously, I'm not the typical 'incarnation' of a Christian, but that's who I am.
ReplyDeleteThere's an interesting story to my 'conversion:' 1969 was the summer following my freshman year in high school, and I was invited to church by this kid. This kid and I had never been close- he had in fact given me a hard time in the seventh grade, before we started hanging out together in the eighth grade. In any case, he invited 4-5 of us to Bible study and an evening service on a Wednesday night. My parents (agnostics at the time, but later converted to Christianity as well) had never taken me to church, so it was all new to me.
At the end of the service, the pastor invited anyone who wished to receive Jesus Christ as Lord and Savior to come to the front. Well, I really wanted to. I 'believed' in my heart as soon as I heard the Gospel for the first time. I looked around and notice no one else was responding. Man, I wanted to walk up so badly, and couldn't believe no one else felt what I did. But I didn't have the guts to go up there by myself.
As you know, I'm into solitude and pretty much a loner. So I attend church only occasionally (I was baptized in a Baptist church in 1970). I also have no problem 'reconciling' my choices in life with what I believe- I don't second guess my trips to Vegas, day trading, drinking, or cussing up a storm (well, without taking the Lord's name in vain)- that's just me, and what would life be like if we all looked/acted like Oral Roberts?
cont'd....
Note that both the Protestant and Catholic churches are full of scandals- sex, money, and abuse.
ReplyDeleteHuman nature pervades the church. Personally, I understand it. A lot of that stems from the 'handcuffs' that self-righteous Christians like to place on the entire church. Sort of a 'lowest-common denominator' approach to protocol. I don't buy it. I'm more into the 'love covers many sins' approach, and I more or less accept people as they are. How many times does the Bible remind us that Jesus spent his time among sinners, and considered many of them His friends? In contrast, there are just as many verses which record Him scolding self-righteous religious 'leaders.'
2nd - well said. My fiancee is a Bible thumper in many ways, but she's a great person and is fun and open minded. Me, I'm more of a I believe in God and JC but not too big on a lot of today's organized religion Christian...if there is one. There's just too much bigotry and hypocricy for me in organized religion. Having said that, I go to church about 2 times a month. Some of the songs and traditions are a little too cheesy for me, though.
ReplyDeleteMark - my thinking on gold, aside from the long winded explanation as to why i like it going lower: if the markets rip higher then people are going to bail out of gold and move to risky assets. If the market drops lower people will rush into the dollar. Both scenarios seem to me to result in lower gold. Having said that, I fully expect to wake up tomorrow to a gap up in gold.
To answer your question about the afterlife- personally, I think this life pales in comparison to eternal life in 'heaven.' Set aside your own 'beliefs' for a moment and think of the many things your 'imagination' is capable of. Even that would (IMO) fall short of what lies beyond.
ReplyDeleteI've mentioned serial killers a few times in my many posts, from the vantage point of believing that all human beings can be 'understood.' There is really nothing that any of us cannot 'fathom' when it comes to human nature. So I suppose part of my fascination with subjects such as Nanking 1949 (as well as historian Iris Chang's suicide), the Nineties in East Oakland, my classmate's descent into the crack epidemic of 1985, and evil in general- hey, I'm just playing my 'part' in the church- someone needs to be the guy who can stand astride the disparate sides of life without having to work too hard at it. For me, it's not work.
I agree- I think we gap up in all sectors tomorrow. Kill the bears once and for all- I may even turn bullish.
ReplyDelete2nd/TOF- I would be disappointed if anything here was off limits due to "group think". Isn't that why we all came here? We all respect and trust each other, at least I do. Keeping that in mind is enough.
ReplyDelete2nd- Your memory amazes me. I'm a little younger than you and I only remember things in a very broad brush. To referrer to a specific day of the week that long ago...damn. It is Tuesday, right?
Ok, here is the boat I was considering
ReplyDeleteSince nothings happening in the fut's, I give you....The flying Barry...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/MWI4ODgx
CB- Shit...I can't see that!!
ReplyDeleteclick it to full size
ReplyDeleteAsia isn't very happy again tonight, and if it stays that way I doubt we'll see much green tomorrow aside from TLT, U$D, and possibly gold.
ReplyDeleteactually you click the pic once to go to my profile, then click on view full size to see it full size
ReplyDeleteCB- Got it..nice. Can one live full time on a boat that size?
ReplyDeleteThat would certainly be tight. In addition, its not really rigged for long distance cruising. It does have a 12v refrigerator, but doesn't have a watermaker or solar panels or wind generator. I'm sure there are 1000 other expensive things missing for long distance cruising. My guess would be that the boat was mostly daysailed or overnighted on Lake Michigan and spent the vast majority of its time at the dock.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, that might be fine or me, too, and maybe as time goes by I'll get to where I go off for a few days, then a week, and eventually a few weeks even, but I don't think living aboard is so important if you own the house and have your boat docked in the backyard. For example, there would be times you'd enjoy AC, huh?
It would be nice just to get out on nice days.
This is a boat setup for living aboard, and was lived on by its owners for 17 yrs and crossed the Atlantic twice...
ReplyDeletehttp://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=320569858680&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT
Kyle, I find that it is much easier to day trade when there is a certain market direction -- the patterns usually resolve in that direction. In the past two weeks, however, all breakouts above a channel high that I was getting into have turned out to be fakes.
ReplyDeleteGold Futures back to $1200 this am. Wish I had reloaded the DGP. No way I'd buy it today.
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The Ps stalled a bit in their breakout.
As I preach, follow through is key.
The Nasdaq and Russell remain stuck in a range.
Gold still looks poised to continue its recent slide.
There are quite a few sectors that have recently broken out but I wouldn't get too excited until we see follow through in the overall market.
Futures are flat to firm pre-market.
Landry must be short gold to be able to look at it and think its "sliding"
ReplyDeleteEXK is a potential long, it's a silver stock.
ReplyDeleteBHI @ 42.70. Broke my 3 day rule. Let's see.
ReplyDeletethere's the gap up in gold. why do i bother shorting anything?
ReplyDeleteBHI adding @ 42.12. OK, let's see if we can hold S1. 2/3 position.
ReplyDeleteUh oh. I see that none other than the Wizard Trader is in my short gold camp. Maybe I should bail?
ReplyDeleteBHI off at 42.15. That little spike down broke what I see as support.
ReplyDeleteBHI back on @ 42.10. Seems to be holding here.
ReplyDeleteThat would make me nervous TOF ;)
ReplyDelete$USD spiking a little here...
ReplyDeleteBHI off 41.99 had set a 7% stop but why wait for a smack in the face.
ReplyDeleteMark - maybe he (and I) is right...price action in GLD is pretty weak given the opening gap.
ReplyDeleteBHI off for the last time @ 42.00. No follow through volume. Bidding DZZ @ 11.44.
ReplyDeleteGot one right.
ReplyDeleteHappened to glance at bids for TZA/ERY around 7 am and couldn't believe what I was seeing.
Small positions opened @ 29.88/45.37 were closed @ 30.66/45.89. $500 in gains.
Lowering DZZ to 11.43.
ReplyDeleteRE: MBLX - Maybe we had it wrong with this one...maybe it should have been CAAS. That chart looks a lot better.
ReplyDeleteJuly was my best month so far this year.
ReplyDeleteLooks like August could be even better. Cheapybob, that RBY is flying. Thank you for the tip. I am up 14% since I bought it last week on Tuesday. Cheapybob, how much higher do you think it will go this month? I want to sell short-term on any spike up.
Are there any other cross-border stocks you like here?
sorry, meant WATG not MBLX>
ReplyDeleteI would guess next resistance on RBY around $4.00, but watch for covering volume spike, I think.
ReplyDeleteDZZ filled. I'm seeing some really crazy moves here.
ReplyDeleteCB: Thank you.
ReplyDeleteI would have been better off just writing you a check for 500 2nd :)
ReplyDeleteSee you guys later.
ReplyDeleteBidding GMO @ 3.20...OK, now I'm really out of here :)
ReplyDeleteI still think they try to rake the bears across the coals.
ReplyDeleteWATG - I was wondering if/when someone would mention this one again.
ReplyDeleteEarnings: 8:00 a.m. US Eastern Time on August 9th, 2010
I'm watching this one for an entry should something materialize, I'm plenty long elsewhere so I need something extremely compelling.
I see Shanghai bounced into the green just prior to close, wonder what caused that?
ReplyDeleteI'll look into it.
Just put CNBC on and saw Dick Bove on. Why do people continue to listen to this guy? Wasn't he the one calling Citigroup a generational buy or something along those lines when it was at $30/share?
ReplyDeleteI see them pouring lighter fluid on the coals.
ReplyDeleteDick Bove sounds so damn authoritative though, how can anyone watching ignore these authoritative figures?
ReplyDeleteJust tossed a match onto the coal bed...
ReplyDeleteGold short - You can always rely on the Wiz to lead the sheep off a cliff, especially at inflection points.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, and especially important for the greenies, there's never any immediate follow-up or acknowledgment of misjudgment. That comes months later, if at all.
Corporate cash/debt - Taking that one step further, how might that relate in terms of future events?
ReplyDeleteWhich of the possible outcomes would best serve shareholder interests?
1) They get to the point where they cannot service their debt.
2) The debt gets diluted through a weaker currency and their cash holdings diminish in value.
3) Other possibilities?
PAL going up today.
ReplyDeleteEXK working out also..
And RBY...well, you know about that one:)
Chicken - I think (hope) the Trader Wizard has this short right though. If we gap up above 1,130 tomorrow morning then I would expect a gap down in Gold.
ReplyDeleteMark - hope you got a big piece of DZZ. Gold appears to be free falling after gapping higher.
ReplyDeleteMan, I was looking at the hourly chart on GLD...that thing has had more spikes up and down than I have seen anywhere else.
ReplyDeleteFuel for Cheapy's argument: Too much cash?
ReplyDeleteIt can't remain this way too long.....
http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/nmn_features/banks-discourage-new-deposits-in-cash-glut-1019974-1.html
BHI- I'll be back after I change into a nice flower print dress....
ReplyDeleteTOF - Isn't gold already down? My expectation is a positive correlation with PM's and equities from here where gold moves up to catch up with copper and base metals, which have been flying.
ReplyDeleteElse, copper and base metals will begin moving down along with equities?
Oh Great, now Mark's back to cross dressing!!!
ReplyDeleteUBS is sure Fing with me today. First I get a partial fill on GMO while other orders fill afterward. Now HEK prints 4.44 and I have an order in for 4.45 that doesn't fill.
ReplyDeleteAnother odd-ball day with equities, gold and dollar all moving together while platinum's flat and silver moving down. At least base metals are up and TLT is down.
ReplyDeletePartial fill - I always place my order with "All or None" in order to avoid that, these market makers/computers run prices up and down at will 100 shares at a time when volume is so light like it's been.
ReplyDeleteSometimes I think it's only me trading against a glorified chess computer except the computer doesn't recognize I'm actually playing tic-tac-toe.
They need to add more fuel (or maybe a little oxygen) to the coal bed- it's not really going anywhere...
ReplyDeleteCP- What pisses me of is once it starts to fill, it should continue if other shares are trading at that price. Do any of you guys direct your order routing? UBS runs most of Schwabs orders through NYS and I'd rather have then go through ARCA.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/110217/anyone-want-to-trade-hello-anyone?mod=bb-budgeting
ReplyDelete2nd - I don't think it really can go anywhere today, not based upon the last two days action in Shanghai and the looming interest there over further tightening by Chinese government.
ReplyDeleteThey've got the world by the short hairs!
Mark - I think you must be referring to upstairs and downstairs trading, you're probably lower down on the totem like me. These guys only make money playing lots of petty games all day long.
ReplyDeleteI'm gold bias, but it seems obvious that someone is working hard to keep gold from closing plus 1200.
ReplyDeleteIf Berfunkne just mentions QE2 gold will pop $20-30 in a blink.
Doesn't gold tend to go up overnight and than the jerks at comex bang it down?
It really does not matter gold is going higher over time and that's what I'm looking at. For Moses sake we are printing to infinity how is that a good thing?
Anybody selling anything here? I've got an urge to sell my PAL and book the gain.
ReplyDeleteTOF- DZZ 1/3 position. 1.5K shares.
ReplyDelete"For Moses sake we are printing to infinity how is that a good thing?"
ReplyDeleteEverybody asking that question never seems to offer up any alternatives.
It's way too late in the game for criticizing, that the tool we needed when NAFTA was moving through congress, and when Bill Clinton set up his Arkansas buddies with the cheap Chinese goods gravy train.
PAL- Right where it was before the last dip down. GL.
ReplyDeleteOkay CP, just for you. Instead of when congress kissed the ass of Paulsen with we will collapse on Monday if you do not give us $700Bil I would have instructed Treasury to do the following:
ReplyDeleteWe are not bailing out the banks for the risks they took. Mr. Paulsen you will on Monday set-up two banks, Bank A and Bank B, each will be funded with $300 Bil each. This will allow capitalism to work by destroying those that do not deserve to survive. Tell citizens that need credit that in thirty days you can start doing business at these banks.
We would have rid the systems of this crap that we are in now.
I understand that this is somewhat simplistic, but you get the idea.
As Einstein said, to do the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome is a form of insanity. Well our gov't is totally insane.
The US has basically on two options left, either default or print more.
ReplyDeleteWhich choice do you think they will do?
snuck out for a bit - FAZ@13.12, TYP@37.00
ReplyDeleteI got long EXK today. Investment.
ReplyDeletePAL just getting good guys.....trust my chart reading skillz boys:)
ReplyDeleteMassive long in PAL
Thanks, not sure what "just for you" is supposed to mean as I freely admit I'm currently insignificant in the scheme of things.
ReplyDeleteI'll just say I voted against most of the decisions made on my behalf, and will continue to do so until they take some form of common sense and stop feeding us a daily line of BS.
Banks are notorious for poor decision making, and Congress stopped representing the people long ago.
So yes, most of what we had is long gone due to these factors. America has no savings for the most part, so why wouldn't default through printing be the chosen alternative? It fits perfectly in their power scheme as I comprehend it.
So, please insult me some more if that makes everything better for you.
PAL - Thanks for the comment Sharkie, I'll hold onto this little monster and see how it goes as we progress into earnings.
ReplyDeleteMr. Pookie, I was just trying to answer your question since you quoted something that I posted.
ReplyDeleteI think they will print, period.
I'm sorry if you interpret what I say as an insult to you.
Why you would think that is beyond me.
i see that my order from monday did indeed go through. so i was the owner of the SPY index fund and the Emerging markets index fund. I have decided to sell those at the close and wait until after the jobs report (or if tomorrow is a big down day, then tomorrow) before buying back in. I also sold my STT at $39.95 which I forgot that I bought a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteToo much wedding planning going on.
Well,lack of patience cost me some coin today. Instead up being up about 800 bucks, I closed down 244..and I just sat on my hands when RAS panicked down to 1.93. Friggin baby.
ReplyDeleteT3d - I think they may have no choice at this point but to print, I'm just wondering why it's taking them so long to get around to it, considering the rate of economic decay doesn't appear to be abating appreciably.
ReplyDeleteIt's a no-brainer when you're importing most of all your finished goods for decades on end, something's got to give. You want cheap goods, you've got 'em! Until you don't!
Mark, I don't bat an eye at closing down by just three figures anymore.
ReplyDeleteJJG - Have you guys been witnessing the move?
ReplyDeleteNo trades or positions today. LOL, nothing lost, either.
ReplyDeleteHey...Is this bar still open???
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete