Friday, August 6, 2010
8/6/10 Solitary Man
Being a loner has its advantages. One of them is that I generally don't give a ---- what people think. (Well, of course I do. But a great deal less than the average guy.)
After 25 years of following the stock markets, Direxion invented a product that dovetails nicely with my inclination to fade crowd behavior. The advent of leveraged ETFs allows me to essentially track emotional swings 'projected' in real time on a 'large screen,' with each move magnified 2-to-3 fold.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
If I'd been around for the after-hours action on HPQ, I would have bought a few shares.
ReplyDeleteAs it is, I'm pretty pleased with my trading today- in spite of being stopped out of TZA at the low. I did what I had to do- being unable to watch positions all day, I either take quick profits or stop out.
ReplyDeleteI notice TZA closed near the low of the day. BGZ did as well- my BGZ was opened at 13.99 and closed at 14.10...it went on to hit 14.23, of course- but in light of the EOD print of 13.73, I'm not complaining.
Mark- It didn't hit 4.5% today. But it's just a matter of time.
ReplyDeleteI know people will rain hell upon me for this, but I like that version better than JC and just below ND's.
ReplyDeleteI was not happy with my trading this week, all though it was green.
2nd- I sent you an email about the rates. I'm ready.
ReplyDeleteYo VB!!!
ReplyDeleteI'm going to try a new Chinese place for dinner tonight. 3rd Chinese restaurant in 3 years in the same place. I hope it's not the same food!!
ReplyDeleteMark- Yeah, that sounds like a good rate. Should get even better next week, when the Fed meets- any action they take is likely to favor lower mortgage rates.
ReplyDeleteI may be on the verge of opting out of even short term long trades. Already I am hedging my minuscule legacy longs with a short via SDS while going long with SDY, hoping to collect at least some dividends from the latter in a neutral posture. Am looking forward to buying GLD and shorting S&P 500. That's a winner for the continuation of trouble ahead per my interpretation of what Felix Zulauf is saying.
ReplyDeleteI'm happy with my trading today for the simple reason my 'takes' were correct. It's getting to the point where broad market direction has little to no bearing on my day trades- as long as I game the 'impulse' moves correctly, I can make money. And the very short time frames are perfect for the limited attention spans I'm able to spare.
ReplyDeleteillini- Who is Felix Zualauf? Obviously I can GOOG him, but I'd like your take on him.
ReplyDeleteI do get the sense that the masses are angry, which isn't good for longs.
Sheesh, if things don't start getting better soon I wouldn't be surprised to see sub 1% mortgage rates. They might even have to go negative, I've heard someone talking about that recently.
ReplyDeleteJapan - I recall in the earlier throws of the Japanese real estate crash telling my friends I'd kill for their 3%. Their rates may have even gone lower, I really don't know, but I distinctly recall 3%.
Can't believe SPY didn't sell off after hours, I betcha it does Monday morning if WDC doesn't have some kind of bright ideas this weekend.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't hold my breath, considering the candles of consciousness haven't burned brightly inside the beltway for over two decades...
Negative mortgage rates? Is that where they pay me to borrow money b/c the Fed pays them even more to lend it to me?
ReplyDelete"the candles of consciousness"? Damn my friend that's good. If you didn't steal it, bravo!!
ReplyDeleteAll I can come up with is pinheads. Same as Orgzad/Rohmer. Thank sound is a toilet flushing.
WOOOOOOSHHHH....
Naaah, it's an old one, don't remember where it came from years ago.
ReplyDeleteYeah, somewhere I heard an interview where "according to the numbers", the FED should be paying banks to make loans. I thought to myself at the time they were actually paying banks not to make loans by paying interest on FED deposits.
So now I've lost track of whether or not the FED is paying interest on bank deposits or not but that concept seems self-defeating so it must be the case.
We can be sure any concept originating from inside the beltway is self-defeating, their default principal is known as the three I's:
I - Incomplete
II - Illegible
III - Incorrect
We all know what happens when one gets into the habit of lying, all kinds of crazy stuff.
* Note that the special ambihelical hexnut is unique in that any attempt to remove it in the conventional manner only succeeds in tightening it. Because of this design. the nut must be fully screwed on before it can be screwed off:
ReplyDeletehttp://joeschwartz.net/Illusions/parastatic.htm
This avatar shows the special nut listed above.
ReplyDeleteWell, the new Chinese place was disappointing. They did deploy and interesting strategy though. They move to hostess stand from the LEFT of the entry to the RIGHT.
ReplyDeletePerusing charts....
UB's got b*lls, that's for sure!
ReplyDeletehttp://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Super-Bowl-XL-head-official-admits-to-blown-call?urn=nfl-260901
JB- Damn. I'll say he does. Good for him.
ReplyDeleteTOF: I think that the major driver of gold now is the central bank buying. The Western central banks, as I understand, have been very reluctant recently to dispose of their gold, while the appetite of central banks of Russia, India and China for gold has been increasing recently. Central banks necessarily have a very long time horizon, and even if they are sure of deflation over the next couple of years, they'll just view this as the opportunity to keep scaling into gold, since the prospects of a large inflation by the end of the decade are very high. Therefore, these long-term buyers (which includes other wealthy players in addition to the central banks) are providing the floor under the gold and make gold suddenly go up when NO ONE expects it to go up.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I think the weak economic news are positive for gold now, since instead of deflation they point out to new actions by the US Fed and government, which are STRONGLY opposed to deflation. Bernanke WILL throw money from helicopters if deflation sets in, and so I think gold went up on Thursday and Friday because the weak employment claims and employment data increased the likelihood of further actions by US Government and the Fed.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think you're right but I think if the markets go down further (to say 950 or so) which I think we agree it will then Gold and precious metals will fall further faster. In all of the downturns over the past 2 years with the exception of this latest one, GLD has gone down more than SPY.
ReplyDeleteActually I take that back...it hasn't.
ReplyDeleteIn panics the mining stocks fall fast, but the metal is more and more becoming a safe haven, I think.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete