Monday, August 9, 2010
8/9/10 Larry Coryell
What is it about the blues that dispels any and all unplesant distractions? There's something in the music- the i7-iv7-v7 chord progression/distinctive bass line(s)/steady drum beat that silences one part of the brain while switching on another. Park the car, sit down in a darkened pub, toss back a drink, and within 20 minutes a good band can trigger an endorphin rush.
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We all make money tomorrow. I guarantee it.
ReplyDeleteWorks for me. Can we do it a little later in the day? Busy in the morning.
ReplyDeleteOkay, now my posts are disappearing....
ReplyDeleteThis is for 2nd. Don't know if you've been to Yoshi's, but check it out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7JBgw6tm4U&feature=player_embedded#!
Maybe you really have pissed of some people up there ;)
ReplyDeleteYoshi's is great.
Crap, FF! it's gone again!! Watch your back.
ReplyDeleteAPWR- Used to follow this one. If the FINVIZ FPE is to be believed, it's cheap as hell.
ReplyDeleteOkay, let's try MS IE
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7JBgw6tm4U&feature=player_embedded#!
Bastards
2nd,
ReplyDeleteHere is a cut from a recent Charles Kirk interview with a money manager. Thought we might all learn from his lessons learned:
Kirk: What would you say is one of the most important lessons you learned early on?
James Altucher: The only three things that are important are discipline, persistence, and psychology. Without those three things there isn't a strategy in the world that will work for you. With those three things, just about any strategy will work.
Not that I have much of those!
illini- That interview was emailed to me. I liked this part....
ReplyDeleteJames Altucher: I don't think I'm a contrarian at all. I like the ipad, for instance. And I like popular TV shows like Entourage and True Blood. And, like most people who have 401k plans I think stocks will go up over time. And I hate to do things like spend money on buying a home, paying for lawyers, sending kids to college, etc. Who likes those things? They are the contrarians.
Yikes, Shanghai's down big, what happened?
ReplyDelete"Large cement companies set to cash in
ReplyDeleteBy Liu Yiyu (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-08-10 10:18
BEIJING - Large cement makers will benefit from industry consolidation as China accelerates the phasing out of energy-wasting and outdated production capacity, according to industry experts.
China has ordered more than 700 polluting and energy-intensive cement factories to shut down by the end of September
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said this would cut the cement industry's annual production capacity by 107 million tons.
Announcing the closure plans, the ministry published a list of the 762 affected companies on its website.
Companies that fail to comply with the instruction will be barred from obtaining loans, won't get government approval for new investments, won't get access to additional land and will face the withdrawal of their production license and pollution permit, the ministry said.
Qinghai, Shanxi, Beijing are the top three areas with most affected factories, according to Guotai Junan Securities.
"Governments will be the first to benefit from the measure, as it will help them achieve environmental targets and save energy," said Kong Xiangzhong, secretary-general of China Cement Association.
"In addition, large cement companies will benefit from an increased market share."
Kong was confident that the measures could be implemented by the end of September.
However, industry analysts expressed concern at the mandatory shutdown, saying that two months is too little time for such a large-scale closure.
Everbright Securities said in a research note that China's cement output growth is set to decline from the current double-digits to single figures.
The country's cement production was 163 million tons in 2009 and will stand at 185 million tons this year with China's fixed assets investment and property market cooling down, according to the research. "
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-08/10/content_11128739.htm
"China's industrial polluters given 2 months to close
ReplyDeleteUpdated: 2010-08-09 14:20
BEIJING - China's industry chiefs have warned more than 2,000 companies to close obsolete production facilities within two months or face cuts in credit and a suspension of government approvals.
The Ministry of Industry (MIIT) and Information Technology has set the deadline at the end of September for firms to shut down outdated facilities in a move to cut overcapacity and raise the level of economic growth.
The government order involves 2,087 companies, according to a document released Sunday by the ministry.
The order covers 18 industries: iron, steel, coke, iron alloys, calcium carbide, electrolytic aluminium, copper smelting, lead smelting, zinc smelting, cement, paper-making, glass, ethanol, monosodium glutamate, citric acid, leather-making, printing and dying, and chemical fibers.
The cement, paper-making and iron sectors had the most numbers of companies ordered to close outdated energy-consuming and polluting capacities.
Liuzhou Iron and Steel Co, Ltd, according to the government decree, would need to slash 2 million tonnes of outdated iron-making capacity while 762 cement companies were also targeted.
Companies that failed to do so before the deadline would have their waste discharge licenses revoked, said Li Yizhong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology"
CP- Where does CADC fit into this? Seems like a small co to me. GL young Skywalker.
ReplyDeleteCADC - Yes, it does seem like a small company
ReplyDelete(758 employees) whereas Cemex has 47k employees, but I'm gonna guess the shutdowns involve even smaller companies. CADC provides ready-mix, which is not the targeted "dirty" process, and has received repeated government contracts for the rail system (preferred contractor?).
Yep, we're about to see where this is going!
not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing but my mtg was changed to a webinar so i'll be at the controls today. futes are weaker than i had hoped this a.m. so i might sell 1/2 of my shorts in the pre-market and then see what happens with the fed announcement. i don't really like having so much $$$ tied up in shorts overnight.
ReplyDeleteI am kind of getting sick of trying to make money in the stock market. It's too....Honest, if you get my meaning.
ReplyDeleteThe other guy has too good a chance in this game. I miss my old job where I used to just fucking kill people for a living.
Simple, eloquent, straightforward:)
Had I been born rich I wouldn't even fucking bother, I'd just go golfing that'd be it:)
ReplyDeleteLandry-
ReplyDeleteRandom Thoughts:
The market challenged the top of its range but the futures are getting whacked pre-market so it'll probably come right back into that range.
As I've been preaching, when the market is range bound, wait, don't anticipate.
Best of luck with your trading (or sitting on your hands) today!
might be leaving some $$$ on the table, but I closed out the shorts I picked up late in the session yesterday. Now I don't need to worry about the fed statement.
ReplyDeletewhy the h*ll do i bail too early on my winners and hold on too long to my losers???
ReplyDeleteNot looking good.
ReplyDeleteJB- Nice!! I would have done the same thing. Why risk/stress over it.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I can't find any news on RAS. Can you?
ReplyDeletethx Mark, profit is profit....hope we don't get a 2%+ down day.
ReplyDeleteMan, some of the stuff I follow is really getting hammered.
ReplyDeleteMark - no news that I could find...good thing we bailed on that one.
ReplyDeleteDebating going to 40% long on today's action. I am really warming up to a long eBay position for the long term. The more my customers are using paypal as a payment method, the more I'm convinced that eBay is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. Paypal is now almost 40% of total revenues. The company has a little less than 1/4 of its market cap in cash, no debt, is trading at about 12-13 times earnings and paypal is growing over 20% per year. As commerce continues to move online, paypal will only continue to grow. I could see just the paypal side of things becoming as big as Visa much longer term.
Anyone seeing something interesting?
ReplyDeleteJB - Great move on those short positions, you sniffed out something that flew by me. Would you mind repeating once more?
ReplyDeleteTkx.
This guy makes some good points:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?storyid=%7B7527F58D-D9E9-4961-B63C-CBFB50D12186%7D
CVS - Still underpriced here, IMO. Especially as it approaches $29...
ReplyDeleteWonder which flavor icing the FED has in store for us this afternoon?
ReplyDeleteHi CP - strictly a sentiment play. Took advantage of the weak/low volume move up yesterday to position 4 shorts. No matter how many different ways I looked at it I couldn’t see any way that the market response to the fed statement would be anything but negative.
ReplyDeleteI chose to close out the shorts early this a.m. since the market opened up so weak.
Will look at putting the shorts back on if the market firms up just prior to the announcement.
Shanghai lost 2.89% last night, but I never did really find what I think was the reason, only the government ordered shut down of just over 2000 inefficient "dirty" businesses.
ReplyDeletePlayed one round of DFP on the mini-panic, flat now with $1700 profit in the accounts
ReplyDeleteoops, that was DGP
ReplyDeleteteam,
ReplyDeleteagreed on paypal. I think it is a perfect business model for global currency exchange. No one has been able to match it either
vb
See you guys in a few...
ReplyDeleteteam,
ReplyDeletetake that back. I just read about the pending lawsuits against paypal. Sorry, I didn't realize paypal was still getting away with freezing peoples account wrongfully to make interest. I had this done once - 10,000 frozen in my bank - reason? Unusually high amount of transactions within a short time. Time frozen? 1 month. Imagine telling customers you can't pay them since the bank put a lien on your account for suspicious activity. Hey it is criminal and so is Meg Whitman. Too bad, they want to steal from people instead of provide a global money exchange system that will make money on service fees
nopaypal.com
hope everyone is having a good month
vb
As usual, sold too early. I wonder how everyone knows to buy when I sell?
ReplyDeleteAnon - I highly doubt that them freezing an account is criminal. There is something called the Patriot Act, which probably plays a lot into the role of them freezing accounts. I haven't run into anything like this with my business.
ReplyDeleteI sent the white house yet another email today, if i end up shot in the back of the head in a ditch you know why, we are going to spend another $26B supporting salaries/retirements/benefits which are UNSUSTAINABLE.....just buying more votes before the mid-terms.
ReplyDeletehow very sad
That isn't Anon! It's our own VB!
ReplyDeleteHardly the picture of a 'terrorist'!!!
team,
ReplyDeleteI suspect they get away with paypal is not regulated like a bank. Class action suits will hopefully change it - then, I will become a buyer of ebay.
hey, anonymous, don't blow my cover!! Trying to stay out of trouble!
ReplyDelete:)
Meg Whitman - Will Californians select an professional business thug as replacement for an actor with abs on his lower back? Are they pleased with GOP performance or simply displeased with DEM's?
ReplyDeleteI got fucked in the ass by Paypal also. Back in 05/06 I used to sell a lot of shit on ebay. Long story short......Paypal WILL fuck you in the ass sooner or later, and it ain't buying you drinks first:)
ReplyDeleteFucking thieves.
I know Larry and his kid Murali. Grew up and went to school 2gether. Small fucking world.
Meg Whitman sucks the big one btw.
I recall an analyst I know, Jamie something or other told me years ago that ebay was a business so simple that even the skipper and Gilligan could run it, and he then drew an extraordinarily unflattering comparison between Meg Whitman and the Skipper and ended by ssserting that she IS the skipper, or at least they look a lot alike.
It's amazing what hi test booze can do.
Heck I may even get lucky.....
shipping stuff is a pain in the ass but I fell in love with charging people exhorbitant shipping charges:)
ReplyDeletethey realize it's a premium on the price that benefits only the seller not ebay. it is in a sense part of the price.
You know, I do kinda agree with this guy. This is the reason why INTC trades so poorly despite trading at 9 or 10 times earnings. Margins are at all time highs. Do you really think they will stay this high?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/897fb0e8-a3ce-11df-9e3a-00144feabdc0.html
by the way, i still think GLD is going down short term. if the markets go up then its bad for GLD. if the markets go down then people will buy the dollar in the short term.
ReplyDeletelonger term, QE will come if the markets sink so that's bullish for gold.
TOF - Gold might run if QE starts today...
ReplyDeleteI'm in the meyers camp - the fed isn't going to say anything that indicates qe2, nor are they going to substantially change their statement...net, net negative for most asset classes.
ReplyDeletenow, if i can only get the b*lls to put the shorts back on...yikes!
Okay, so I'm going with the Chinese trade imbalance report being the primary reason for today's global market selling.
ReplyDeleteSure took long enough to figure that one out...
Put the shorts back on if prices rally going into the ~2:00-2:15 FED comments....???
ReplyDeletejb,
ReplyDeleteI also expect the Fed will SAY little or nothing about doing more QE, and that might hurt gold short term, but I think the reality is that they will end up *DOING* more QE because they are so blind that they don't see that none of this is doing any good, and can't see that the end result will eventually cost the dollar its place as world's reserve currency, bringing with it a calamitous dive in American's standard of living with the fall of the dollar.
Then again, it might be wise to wait for the reaction to the comments and not the comments themselves.
ReplyDeletethat's what I am looking at CP, seems like we are just drifting right now, but if there is a real move up then at least 2 shorts go back on.
ReplyDeletelosing my nerve just a bit - you never know what the talking heads might say!
I agree cheapy.
ReplyDeleteIf I was going to make the move then I should have done it 30mins agao.
will sit on my hands and watch at this point
Guys
ReplyDeleteKyle especially....check out the interesting price action in GRS Gammon gold. Could be a good long.
Cheapy - I think the global trade imbalance has an important seat at the table when it comes to America's standard of living.
ReplyDeleteSharkie - Still hanging onto your GMO?
ReplyDeleteChange the value of the dollar to lets say 50 or 60% of current value and then look again at those imbalances...
ReplyDeleteIt becomes obvious that Americans won't be able to afford to borrow to import oil at $100 plus per barrel. In short, if we can't borrow, we must either monetize (print more confetti) or reduce standard of living, or both, like I think we have been doing.
Hmmmm...Looks like we are all on the same page. Fed doesn't change statement but starts QE2.
ReplyDeleteWe must be wrong then :)
I'll try to put it in a useful context later, but my house appraisal came in @ 770K. I kinda figured 650K.
So Americans will always borrow to import oil? Oil is a non-renewable natural resource, and global economies have been expanding based upon the American model. China now consumes more energy than the US, and the US military consumes huge quantities of oil.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of which, where would we be if it weren't for our military? Is our military a necessary evil?
CP- I'm still in GMO.
ReplyDeleteHUN finally below my sale price. This is an interesting area, technically.
ReplyDeleteMy buy stop limit order on SGG was triggered this morning at $50.05. Small position -- 100 shares.
ReplyDeleteNANO has held up very well.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Great job. I thought sugar would weaken a little more on the China news. GL
ReplyDeleteI remember working with one of the Japanese engineers living in Oregon, he used to call his town Importland.
ReplyDeleteThis was nearly 2 decades ago.
So what do we want to follow after the big news, TLT??
ReplyDeletePlacing a sell stop limit on my SGG, stop at $50.05, limit at $50, so as to have some protection against profit turning into a loss.
ReplyDeleteLast time I placed such a stop when I got in at $44 and SGG was at $46. It then quickly took out my stop and rocketed higher to $55. Let's see what happens this time...
Positive initial reaction.
ReplyDeleteWent long DGP again before fed statement, flat again now, with net for the day now over $5100 profit.
ReplyDeleteSold too early as usual
2nd- Got to be close now.
ReplyDeleteI looked at the intraday double bottom on the stock indices and I just *knew* how the chart is going to resolve itself -- with a spike up in the market. I did make a decision to leave my TWM until the real leg down in the market arrives and not day trade it, but somehow I forgot that I could have simply bought some SSO! I also thought that maybe the Fed announcement will change the upward intraday momentum somehow, but it didn't -- the chart could have looked that way even without the Fed announcement. Well, not that the spike up has materialized, I just bought some SDS at $31.30 -- 100 shares, small position.
ReplyDeleteAmazing! What did the Fed say? Nothing! And Dow already is about to go green! Investors are like children -- whenever Daddy appears in the room, all worries drop away and they start cheering!
ReplyDeleteThe market sees additional debt monetization on the way...
ReplyDeleteWell, at least gold is doing a moonshot. :) I have a sell limit order at $15.15 for 250 shares of CEF I added at $14.15 a couple of weeks ago -- maybe that limit gets hit today?
ReplyDelete"additional debt monetization on the way..."
ReplyDeleteWas there ever really any doubt? My question is what took so long, the delay doesn't exactly instill confidence, it's self-defeating.
TLT dropping... NY Fed to purchase 2-10 year T's. We might get screwed 2nd.
ReplyDeleteputting back on the 4 shorts, but only 1/2 positions....still don't see how folks can spin the fed statement as positive.....tight stops so even if i am wrong i can't give back this a.m. profit.
ReplyDeleteweird, got diff prices, but this is what i calc as the ave for my positions:
ReplyDeletefax - 13.83, typ - 38.46, tza - 31.08, sds - 31.00
am i the only one pissed off here? maybe i should have paid more attention in advanced marco econ when i was in college. ashamed to admit my degree is in econ - i cannot make head nor tails of the feds statement.
ReplyDeleteGL bro. I'm kinda stuck here. Not sure what to do.
ReplyDeleteJB- The Fed basically said they will print money to buy 2-10y T's and maintain their balance sheet @ 2T. More liquidity sloshing around. I'm sure most people here will say it will bury us and gold will rocket.
ReplyDeletejb,
ReplyDeleteIts likely intentional. They have no clue how to end the depression without a collapse if things refuse to improve after they have thrown the kitchen sink at it. Note, no dissenters now.
well, trading in anger is certainly a mistake but I cannot help it.
ReplyDeletesince when does QE equate to an increase in aggregate demand? the only real issue out there is a lack of final sales/aggregate demand.
we do not have a credit issue, we have a consumption/investment issue......or, my CSUC degrees aren't worth shit, and since I'm in sales I really have no credibility...:)
Oh, Hoenig is still dissenting, tv didn't mention that earlier
ReplyDeleteThey are just printing money. Its all they know how to do, anyway, either print or not, and things are lousy, so they print.
ReplyDeleteSurely your trading platform calculates your avg. position price??
ReplyDeleteYour problem wasn't paying attention in college. I was THE college you went to.
typ off at 38.97, i'm thinking tech firms up here. going to hold the other 3 for a bit longer.
ReplyDeleteJB- Give your wife 100 bucks. What she does with it might answer you question :)))
ReplyDeleteha, ha, yeah, it was THE college, I know and accept that (too much fun!).
ReplyDeleteat the end of the day I run this screen and it shows my ave position cost, but i can't see it during the trading session, I must be missing something.
Lot of daily overhead right here for TZA.
ReplyDeleteman, if i could get her down to a $100 a day i'd cheer.
ReplyDeletetoday, she's carting the women around to get shots (what???), and buying some new bedding for a family and then swin suits for the summer bash......oh my!
jb, QE is not about stimulating aggregate demand -- it is moral hazard (the irresponsible investors are being given some money temporarily), and as Jeremy Grantham has observed, the markets are MUCH more sensitive to moral hazard than to real economy. It is just the greedy human nature at play...
ReplyDeletewe could very well accelerate down but I want to book a bit more profit (not in Bob's league!)< tza at 31.76, sds at 31.34.
ReplyDeletebingo David.
ReplyDeleteInteresting this morning how gold and equities were moving down together, has gold's safe harbor status diminished?
ReplyDeleteThe safe harbor status was debunked for me when gold fell to $750 a couple of years ago...
long DGP again on the pullback, but not a huge position like earlier. Will let it ride a while.
ReplyDeleteTBT green!
ReplyDeleteWell, since I have no clue how to play this, I wont play.
ReplyDeleteThey're not just printing money, they're not printing enough to make any material difference but at least what they do print get's thrown a shit hole rather than rebuilding roads and bridges..
ReplyDeleteHUN @ 9.89...So I lied.
ReplyDeletemoved my SPY index fund back into cash...i'm thinking i will go long at a close above the june highs because it is clearly being trapped under that high. otherwise, i kept my Emerging Markets index fund, which is about 50% in China, India, and Brazil, all 3 of which have much better growth potential than the US long term. I also kept my STT and may add to it if it gets down to the $37 range. I like this one to about $47.
ReplyDeletealso looking at going long in eBay, ADES, WATG and SOKF
Yup, just flushing it down a government spending shithole instead of requiring the congress and OB force real change to end the imbalances and put America back to work with it.
ReplyDeleteCOLOSSAL stupidity, IMO
Wonder how the administrations plan to increase taxes is working out? That ought to more than counter the amount of money that's been printed then thrown directly down the old shit hole.
ReplyDeleteThe democrats have blown the best opportunity they've had in a decade.
I figured I'd make a new leading post for a change. I think it might help some investors deal with their worries.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- feel free to add an appropriate video to it or make another leading post.
new post
ReplyDelete