Friday, September 3, 2010

9/4/10 Stormy Friday



I left over 1% on the table by selling yesterday. That's alright.

Our appraisal was completed today. There's a story behind the late timing, which I'll share once the loan is approved.

One unexpected incident almost ruined my day, but right now it appears to be only a minor nuisance. I drove down to the courthouse at 850 Bryant to pay off a 'fix-it' ticket. That area of SF is not known for easy parking, but I only had to circle around once to find a spot on 6th Street. I backed into it. I got out, nodded to the guy sitting in the car behind mine, and started to walk off. He exited his vehicle and called out to me. Claimed that I bumped into his car. I couldn't recall hitting anything, but we walked over to examine the 'damage' anyway. A ----ing hairline crack on the plastic molding that holds his license plate? WTF...

'You ruined my repair job.'
'Repair job?' I was looking at a piece of plastic that protrudes about an inch from the front of the car, into which a license plate is nestled (what idiot came up with that design?)- the top appeared to have been plastered with something that resembles hardened Silly Putty, and spray painted red (the color of the car). And there was a crack in it.
'Yeah, I just had that repaired.'
'Really?' is what I said (but inside I was thinking 'You actually paid someone for that ---- job?'). 'Look, I don't remember hitting anything when I backed in.'
'You did. I was sitting in the car.'
'There was no impact.'
'You didn't hit me, but you pushed against the car, and it's messed up the repair job. What do you want to do about it?'
'Well, I don't think I hit you, and there's nothing I can do.' I glanced up the block at Bryant, 'There's a line of patrol cars up there, we can probably find an officer if you want to file a report.'
'No, let's have the insurance companies handle it.'
Well, I wasn't about to exchange information of any kind with this guy. 'Look, I gotta go.'
'OK, I'm writing down your license number.'

I left, but for the next 15 minutes I had visions of the guy (a) ramming my car to create the damage he needed for a real claim, (b) keying my car, (c) kicking in my mirror, or (d) slashing a tire. Not worth it, man. I should have driven off and found another spot.

I returned 15 minutes later, and the guy was still there, sitting with a cell phone in one hand and an Allstate pocket card in the other.

'I'm back.'
'Well, I'm calling in a claim.'
'Come on, man.'
'My repair job is fucked up, man.'
'Let's be honest- if that's a repair job, you need to take it back to the shop, because that's one fucked-up repair job.'

As I drove off, another driver was waiting for my parking spot, and I had to wonder what he was in for. Damn- I should have circled back to catch the action.

I called my insurance company after returning home, and asked about my 'responsibilities' in a situation like this. They were professional about it- they will need to open a claim and investigate (I got the other guy's plate number).

Needless to say, I think the guy makes a living sitting in a car worth maybe $500 waiting for drivers to back into his 'repair job.'

In case you're wondering, I was stopped two weeks ago by the SFPD for a dead bulb in one of my headlamps. I had a choice of (a) mailing in proof of correction, (b) walking in with proof of correction, or (c) paying $180 to clear the citation. Obviously, (c) wasn't an option. (a) sounded like the way to go, but the Burlingame officer who signed off my citation made a comment about the (un)reliability of the US Postal Service, so I opted for (b).

Hope y'all had a better day than I did. I really have nothing to complain about- it was a pretty good week.

39 comments:

  1. Hmmmm...a mystery! I love it. Let's see, can't be you need to do what the hell I did. Noway. Perhaps something or someONE interesting in the garage freezer????

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  2. Since we're sharing interesting conversations.

    Patrica comes home today....

    "Hey Hun, we made 20K in the market the past 2 weeks"
    "What does that mean?"
    "Well, we have 20K more than we did 2 weeks ago."
    "Is that good?"
    "Yeah, it's really good."
    "Good for you. I know how much you enjoy that stuff."

    I kid you not.

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  3. The USPS is unreliable? I would've gone that route but to each his own and now you know the DMV has the documentation.

    As for the guy claiming you hit his car, I think you handled that one correctly. You won't be hearing from him and it's nothing to be concerned about even if you did, just deny bumping his car if your belief is you didn't.

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  4. Mark, you left out the part about finding an extra $200k of equity in your home, that one beats your trading gains by a country mile. ;)

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  5. "Making love is like sifting through sand...."

    Yeah, you know this one.....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v31wwyteRqo

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  6. CP- Your right!! Honestly, this was the gist of that conversation...

    "Patricia, the appraisal came back at 800K."
    "Are you happy with that?"
    "Yeah, I'm surprised."
    "Well, you've worked really hard on it."

    That pretty much sums up the majority of the conversations in the Barry household :)

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  7. Value erosion in the ultra's....

    Just because I'm lazy and want Schwab to keep track of positions I've traded, I usually keep about 10 shares of everything. Take a look at this....

    UKK +157%.

    Isn't that about right for the past year?

    Another one for fun..

    TCK +448%

    Some more...

    CE +287%

    SLW +197%
    CLB +157%
    NKE +72%
    BMRN +77%

    Totally random samples. Yikes.

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  8. You don't want to see CREE...Trust me.

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  9. Too funny, now if you could just program Schwab's tools to automatically trade in and out of those positions based on RSI values, you could sit back and watch as the cash flows in.

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  10. Re: question on overnight gaps.
    Submitted by Vadym Graifer (1407 comments) on Fri, 09/03/2010 - 18:32 #68542 (in reply to #68538)
    Remember the axiom: market tries to move with as few passengers onboard as possible. Gaps is one of the ways it achieves that, by gapping over natural levels of the support or resistance and trapping those caught on the wrong side of trade. Trap in this case is not simply in moving against certain part of market populace, but in the way it's done - stepping way beyond their normal risk tolerance so that they are not willing to take a loss anymore and stand there, holding their loss and hoping it dissipates... or worse yet, adding to their short positions.

    Now, I want to offer you this mental experiment. Imagine that you are that beast, the market. After gapping up over bears' stops, what would you, Your Painfulness, do to cause them even more pain and maximize their loss? As you think about it, it becomes quite obvious that the best way to achieve your eternal purpose (max pain) is to continue slow grind up, or just stall and do nothing... only to gap even higher tomorrow. Sounds familiar? It should - that's exactly what market did for months in 2009, remember all those "gap and stall" days?

    That's how you analyze the action and determine the most likely scenario, a.k.a. path of the least resistance, a.k.a. max pain - and when you determine it, you take the right side, a.k.a smart money position, maybe not becoming torturer but sure not being tortured anymore.

    Again, there is nothing new or unusual in it. Happened zillion times before, will happen zillions times again.

    How to protect yourself against it? Well, there is no way to avoid ever being on the wrong side. Thus risk control is paramount. Stops work for day traders; in case of swing traders, stop may not always be a solution as gaps jump over them. Thus, position sizing becomes your main tool for risk control - evaluate the volatility, see the history of the gaps, determine worst case scenario and incorporate it in your position size, so that loss would not exceed pre-planned. And above all - stay nimble. That overconfidence expressed in "they are not fooling me, I know better, I am holding my position whatever they try to do to shake me out" - that's famous last words. Stay sensitive to the changes, observe and try to determine which side is being wrong and avoid being caught with it. Don't forget that market direction is the only indicator of who is right as long as it's the price action we are talking about - too many make this mistake of confusing price action and general economy. Market patterns are the same, be it Great Depression, Tech Boom or today;s market. Pick your time frame and learn those patterns.

    Futures are not the answer - they gap just as well. You may hedge via options but that's not my domain, can't help there.

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  11. Just checking in...What a jerk that guy is 2nd...makes me sick hearing of it.

    Man,look at my little REDF go! Woo Woo. RBCN and STT doing well too. GL to everyone.

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  12. TOF- You could always amend your vacation plans to stop by here for the 9 year old birthday party....

    I have a cooler in the garage full of beers for the poor parents who are going to stay ;)

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  13. Kyle- Looking at the chart you posted re-SPX. Something I see that's interesting to me. You commented that you would believe a trend change has occurred once the upper BB bends and is pushed up.

    Take a look at what is happening now. The lower BB has bent up this time BEFORE the upper. Back in July the lower lagged by about 15 days. Same thing happened of the Feb. lows.

    Big difference of course is the prolonged range we are STILL in. I'm guessing Landry's big blue arrow wont change until 114 or so.

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  14. Doug Kass had a range (1025-1150) based on 2011 SPX $90/share. On Friday he felt we're running out of steam here. Like Vad's comments, opinions are one thing, but if the price action continues then that's all that really matters.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/38991605

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  15. You know fear has been receding when gold's down and silver and copper are up. In addition, it seems yesterday's action indicates gold and oil may become correlated.

    August job losses were less than half the 110,000 predicted by economists.

    Private-sector companies added 67,000 jobs, following an upwardly revised 107,000 gain in July.

    The big payroll number was negative because private sector hiring isn't enough to offset job losses in the government, which is continuing to let go temporary workers hired for the 2010 census.

    Stay tuned sports fans, we'll be right back following this brief commercial announcement!

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  16. I'm still waiting for the commercial...Is this thing broken.....

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  17. Kyle- I'm working through a post in my head about Kass' points.

    I'm not going to dispense 'advice' to anyone who's long here, as you've been right (Kass also defers to price action as the final judge). But were I holding positions in companies like REDF, I would consider taking profits, and then repurchasing during the inevitable pullbacks. Are they really 'inevitable?' IMO, yes. Then again, I've made the point myself about holding positions LT in order to catch the (also inevitable) gaps up. So you're probably safe ignoring my advice.

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  18. A little off my rhythm this morning, as I attended a wedding banquet last night, and didn't get to bed until MN.

    Each table was served the following: (whole) roast suckling pig, shark's fin soup inside individual hollowed-out coconut shells, sliced abalone with Chinese greens, whole abalone with Chinese mushrooms, sauteed scallops wrapped in shrimp, steamed cod with ginger and scallions, and stir-fried lobster over pasta. I was full after the first two dishes, and had to limit myself to token servings of everything else.

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  19. I love what you posted from Vad.

    The Axiom is 100 percent true however there is a tangentail fact with which I'm not is part of Vad's point or not but I will throw it out there.

    I think that one of the "reasons" the market often moves in a gappy fashion overnight only to stall or sell off during the session is, The Market tries to fuck as many daytraders as possible. Now I know that sounds insane; how dows the market know who's a daytrader right?

    But I see it all the time. The market during the past year and a half has mostly required fairly lengthy time committments in order to see big profits on fairly small positions.

    Or you could have merely bought RBY and EXK and gotten rich:)

    An example of what I mean is, PAL has been moving up steadily but to win requires braving the longest hour and a half of the day....namely the period from 8 am until the market opens. Not to mention the vagueries of holding overnight plus the reports that have been released.

    Not that PAL has ever been the ultimate daytrading vehicle...

    Mark...Your wifes attitude.....Doesn't sound any different from the stuff I hear from all my married friends. It goes something like this...

    "Honey guess what? I just shot 73 thru 18, that's 5 better than my previous score!....Jerry Courville, you know the guy who played in the '96 amateur head to head against Tiger was in my 4some and he told me to keep my right elbow tucked and I completely found my stroke off the tee(true story)......I'm thinking I can maybe break 70 here someday and possibly even make a run at the club championship!>>> What do you think of that?"

    "That's nice dear. Remember, Carol and Bob are coming over for coffee and dessert tonight so make sure to get your golf clubs and shoes out of the great room....And honey, would you please remember to take a shower before dinner? You smell like Ben Hogan!"

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  20. Italian wedding, huh 2nd?

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  21. 2nd - Some of his blog posts may be useful to you...

    http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&catid=15

    The P/E based argument for the 1025-1150 range is in this one I believe...

    http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=783&catid=15

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  22. Yes, actually sounds like a traditional Roman wedding but the difference between Roman and Italian is a fine line obscured over the centuries.

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  23. But hey, what does RBY have that PAL doesn't, besides a $1500 cost of gold production?

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  24. Kyle- Thanks. I'm adding Kass to my daily blog reads. I started reading through the most recent ones, and now find myself continuing into the older ones. The guy writes well, and makes great points- heck, I'm almost ready to jump into TBT.

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  25. Oh wait, I just found something PAL has that RBY doesn't!:

    "Palladium group metals (PGMs) production is set to decline because around 8,000 mineworkers at the South Africa-based Northam Platinum will go on strike starting Monday over wage increments. The company did not agree to National Union of Mineworkers' demand for a 15% increase in wages and other allowances. The company produced 321,745 ounces of PGMs in the year to end-June. Supply disruption at Northam will widen the PGM deficit, pushing up the prices.

    Unlike other countries, car sales in India have been trending up and are hesitant to take a break despite price hikes. Car sales of Ford(F) grew 220% year-over-year in August, leading the pack of carmakers in India. Other leading car producers Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors(TTM), Honda Motor(HMC), Toyota Motor(TM) and General Motors registered handsome growth rates of 32%, 45%, 39%, 26%, and 34%, respectively, in August. Several new models, easy financing and booming economy are the prime reasons for the continued outstanding performance of India car sales. "

    http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10852153/1/platinum-palladium-uptrend-to-continue.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

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  26. Believe Kass' description below is pretty accurate wrt what we've been seeing...

    "Normally, I would argue that in a range-bound market, differentiated investment performance (over the next five months) should come from superior individual stock selection and by identifying changing group rotation, but today we live in a risk-on, risk-off world that is heavily affected by the last algorithm standing on a day-to-day basis. With the correlations of different asset classes historically high, the fundamental convictions of a micro ("bottom up") investor will often be challenged (in the months ahead) by the macro world we face."

    especially like the "last algorithm standing on a day-to-day basis" phrase...

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  27. I expect the last algorithm standing will involve emerging market growth pulling developed economies out of the mire, primarily the ones that are capable of producing products and services that developing economies have not yet acquired on their own..

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  28. My mother's dying day:

    She said to me "Martin (not my name, she suffered from dementia), whatever you'll be, there's no such thing as a meal that's free. If there's just one lesson the young ought to learn, it's pay no deposit and get no return."

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  29. Looks like Kirk has some upgrades to his web site in place...

    http://www.kirkreport.com/

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  30. Kinda like this one from Kirk's new site...

    There will be very long work days and work weeks. Those who say you can trade successfully in 10 minutes a week are liars and charlatans. Most independent traders put in between 50 to 60 hour work weeks and are considered “grinders” rather than trading “wizards.” Remember, there are no holidays or weekends for professional independent traders – only more time to devote to charts, scans, research, and strategies!

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  31. i hear what vad is saying guys but how many of us have the patience/time/desire to intra day trade? and how many times do we see a trend after it happens? i think at certain points we need to use our opinions and minds we were given and either buy or short or close those positions. it can't always be as simple as "i'm just following the trend" because this isn't a market where there will be significant trends, in my opinion. while i think the odds of a continued move up to 1250 is likely, i think there is just as good of a chance of us being stuck in a range for several years. in this case, the whole +/-3% 200 DMA goes out the window. and this is why i was saying a few days ago that i think those that rely solely on tech analysis are going to be disappointed soon.

    anyway, thanksfor the invite mark...i'm out in colorado spending time with my brother, his wife, and kids and my dad and stepmom. my brother is moving to the boston area in a week. i was planning on helping them move but i threw my back out 3 weeks ago and had to delay helping out. and it turns out they sold their house after it was on the market for 1 freaking day. you believe that!?!? craziness. so instead of moving we're golfing. not a bad alternative....

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  32. TMF..."patience/time/desire to intra day trade?"

    I don't anymore. Maybe because I was only successful for many small profit trades soon wiped out by a big downer or two. Maybe because I just turned 70 and have to take breaks like resting the eyes and taking the weight off my bum hip. What Vad does takes a lot of attention. More power to him and his software program but that style is not for everyone. As a broken down former air traffic controller once told me : "It's a young mans game". I would add... not suitable for most.

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  33. Gary Moore= One hell of a great guitar player.

    Particularly loved his 1983 "Victims of the Future album"...That one helped me get thru high school:) Saw him warm up for some 80's metal act don't remember which.

    Another great Irish axeman who is no longer w/us... Rory Gallagher. Saw him warm up for Iron Maiden I think a quarter century ago.

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  34. Boys....

    Party went really well, and spent the day watching the older girls in Kendra's club play in a tourny. Now back to the grind....

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  35. Who's in the mood to make a ballsy and possibly foolish be on solar?

    I like the indicator action in eslr just now. The price action is also taking on a more bullish tone.

    For you rich guys among us I suggest 10,000 shares, no more, at the 20 day in a week or so when it begins to rise. Any more would be really foolish bet-size wise versus the trading volume this name is doing.

    My sell target in $1.97

    If any of you know of fundamental probs here let us know. Is this sucker going oob?

    You would, if providence delivers these bountiful rewards, make about a buck thiry per share, or 13k or so on an under 7000 dollar bet.

    If your risk capital is insufficient, try 2000 shares. You would stand to make 2600 on a 1400 dollar bet.

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  36. ESLR- Man I don't know. 3 days rejected at about the same high. Hasn't broken BB except for one on the upside for 180 days. Negative on a positive trend for the market the past 3 days. Talk me into it.

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  37. Mark,

    What's 3 days? And while it is true that the past 3 days have been consolidatory in their character, it is the previous 3 days that really gets my attention. Specifically I refer to the engulfin nature of the price action 6 sessions ago, as well as the bowl-shaped price action in the following 2 days.

    It just looks like it may be getting ready to get good to me. Does it need to do more before I lay out my money? Yes it does. But it deserves to be watched and with an eye toward getting involved.
    What I like is, the macd is rising even as the price fell/stabilized. Also, I realize the downtrend hasn't been decisively broken yet and awaiting a higher low or maybe a double bottom at .6 may turn out to be right.

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  38. ESLR - Aren't their products based on silicon substrates, or have they moved into a thin film strategy?

    Silicon is heavy as heck, considerably more expensive than sputtering a few layers of metal and oxide on a glass or plastic substrate and therefore perhaps not as competitive?

    Just my guess on this one, maybe ESLR is already using thin-film technology?

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  39. I just posted the following natty comments on CC. I'm sure I left out a couple of points.

    Natty Charts
    Submitted by Port2013 (30 comments) on Mon, 09/06/2010 - 02:20 #68585
    Five natty charts for your review tonight.

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