The rally is into its seventh week, and they're lined up outside Gilley's (or Schwab) waiting to take a shot at it. At this level, it's a little late to be opening longs, as one is likely to get thrown off. On the other hand, it's also no time to be short- you would simply be gaming the mirror image of movements in the bull. And if you're playing with leveraged inverse ETFs- by now we all have a mental recording of Sponge Bob wishing us 'Good luck with that,' right?
My recent experience with INTC was a timely reminder of the unpredictable nature of potential turning points- actually, it was also a timely reminder that I'm getting too old for this shit. The correct play right now is probably to wait for the crowd to tire of the mechanical bull, and then pick up where I left off on the long side (I'm still bullish overall). I don't mind paying higher prices at that point.
Of course, I don't rule out intraday forays into TZA should I sense the bull about to slam Travolta on his ass.