Wednesday, November 10, 2010

11/10/10 Cisco Disco

I'll start with a cut-and-paste, then add a few comments.

Re: Cashing Out> Closing BAC/CSCO/GE @ 12.54/24.43/16.54 newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4939 comments) on Wed, 11/10/2010 - 19:52 #73971 (in reply to #73936)
CSCO down >12% after hours. Was it 'skill' that caused me to close out CSCO when I did? Hardly. I really think 'luck' is a huge part of any trader's bag of tricks.

In this case, my rationale for moving to cash stemmed from the fact the DJIA was in positive territory after having sold off hard in the morning. Had the DJIA closed down -75, I would in all honesty have moved the buy-and-hold back into OAKBX for a one-day bounce. In which case, I would also have left BAC/CSCO/GE untouched. (Of course, I had also sold half the CSCO at 24.52 on Tuesday, and my 'true' backstop would have been a position size totaling just 2% of the portfolio- so were I still holding, I could attribute the minimal impact of the after hours sell-off to 'skill.')


I don't blame anyone for gaming CSCO after hours. I thought about it myself, then decided I didn't need the overnight grief. The above post is about as honest as it gets- if the morning sell-off had 'stuck,' there is no question I would have held CSCO (as well as BAC/GE) into the close + reopened OAKBX in the buy-and-hold. Maybe it is negative reinforcement, but I keep reminding myself- trading is not easy.

74 comments:

  1. David- I would have to say the Chinese, the Koreans, the Irish, the Italians, the Indians, the Spanish, you name it- we all have terms for 'liquor is quicker.' Fermentation is one of the all-time winners on the list of discoveries.

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  2. CADC - Try it, their concrete is as hard as Chinese arithmetic!

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  3. CP- What's the latest between you and GMO? Are you still seeing eachother, or just friends?

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  4. I left all my gains there and removed the seed capital while waiting for a pullback. I've gotta go south for a week or so this month and really don't want to leave myself too exposed.

    I believe anything under $5.40 would be a decent re-entry for me but I want a huge bargain this time and I'm willing to wait until after the 12/9 town meeting. GMO will pop to $10 as soon as positive news re: water permits hits the wires and I'd like to be involved.

    So whether we see any pullback there before the announcement is the current unknown.

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  5. So I guess you could say we're friends with benefits.

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  6. OK, just wanted to make sure no one ends up with another blind date like what's-her-name- REDF?

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  7. 2nd_ave -- I have a tiny position in REDF (500 shares) at the cost basis of $3.44, with the intention of buying 2 x tiny (1000 shares) at $3 and then 4 x tiny (2000 shares) at $2.50 and then 8 x tiny (4000 shares) at $2.

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  8. Believe it or not, I actually just listened to the CSCO con call. Have to agree with TOF. Seems a CSCO related issue. I'll wait a few days, but otherwise, I hope for a pull back in the morning that can be played long.

    Off to watch a local high schools North Coast Section playoff soccer game. One of the girls playing sister plays with Kendra.

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  9. David- If you have a thing for tiny redheads, go ahead ;) But if tof bought her dinner every night for a week and still dumped her, it just doesn't look good.

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  10. And I'd better stop with the sexist metaphors before vb whacks me!

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  11. Mark, is it time to start shorting sugar (SGG)? We know it is highly cyclical, and any supply tightness will be followed by new sugar cane planting and a collapse in price. So I'll probably start scaling into SGG on the short side tomorrow.

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  12. Here is a chart of the front-month sugar futures: http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/SBC1/tab/2. Prior to the current rally, all-time high in sugar futures was with SGG at $83. Right now, SGG is at $97. I am planning to open a small short position now (say 50 shares), then add to it 25 shares at $110, $120, $130 and $140.

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  13. Hey guys heading out for bachelor party. Yes I dumped the redhead. She was too selfish for me. Kept talking on her.cellphone and talking about her ex so I kicked her to the curb. Bye bye red(f)head, bye bye.

    Side note it would be a bitch if bears wake up to a sea of green huh? Csco was definitely a csco related issue in my mind

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  14. 2nd,
    don't worry about ruffling my feathers, I jumped off the redf train with tof today. that bitch!

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  15. Ha! I tried placing a sell short limit order for SGG at $100, but there are no shares available to short at OptionsHouse, Scottrade or Etrade. Unfortunately, there are no options on SGG, so I can't even sell a naked call... Does anyone have other ideas for shorting sugar?

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  16. Okay, so some folks are trying to say the FED is buying T's from banks but if that's the case then who's buying the new T issues?

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  17. hey cp, do you think sharkie was in gmo for the big run up? I hope so

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  18. The bond market is closed tomorrow, so don't be fooled by rising rates. Rates are expected to resume the decline which began late this afternoon.

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  19. vb - I hope he was making money on something, would be nice if he'd drop in once in a while.

    After all, it's not as if one of us forgot to have their leprosy shots or something!

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  20. I found another ETF, JJS, which invests in sugar, cotton and coffee. Its previous all-time high was at $52, and now it is trading at $78. I placed a small sell short limit order (50 shares) at $80 through Scottrade.

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  21. Unlike gold, I can't see how the price of such "useful" commodities (sugar, cotton, coffee) can get arbitrarily high...

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  22. Hah! So as QE2 "fails", it will succeed b/c as the market sells off, the capital will flow into T's.

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  23. sugar,cotton,coffee prices are primarily based on supply and demand along with a secondary speculation component, right?

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  24. "I've been in PM stocks for years, and to date I have never seen them hold up in a decimated market. "

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  25. China is cooking tonight so far, along with China moly corp. All of Asia is green for that matter.

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  26. I am placing a sell limit order at $1.10 (just below the asking price) for 5 December $10 WATG puts. Let's see if someone buys them from me tomorrow...

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  27. Turned away at the CSCO disco? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4941 comments) on Thu, 11/11/2010 - 09:17 #73993
    No worries for those of us without the funds or inclination to walk in last night- the cover charge is now at a 15% discount. Funny thing about human nature, though- the lower the cover, the less interest I have in getting through the door.

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  28. That was incorrect, opening price was 44.00.

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  29. Dang. I tired to pick up BTX AH again yesterday @ 6.14. Wonder what's up with it today?

    Everything else I hopped to enter today was not dropping much.

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  30. CP- There was a guy on CNBC saying to look at the cement producers in China.

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  31. OK, I get it. Everyone but me has left for TOF's party....Figures :(

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  32. Dead Cat Bounce? newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4942 comments) on Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:26 #74005
    Buy-the-dip reflexes still in effect. Buying the first dip usually results in getting slapped- an entry below SPX 1200 (should one materialize today) is what I'm waiting for.

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  33. Mark - Did the CNBC guy happen to mention any names?

    I consider CADC a concrete producer/supplier and I've heard China cement imports should increase due to increased regulatory restrictions but that was one theory presented at least a couple of months ago...

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  34. ATNI - Maybe there's no bottom there?

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  35. Getting close. Bidding V @ 77.58 S2.

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  36. CP- No names, but he was wearing an orange CADC hat :)

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  37. ATNI- Man, NO volume in that baby. What was your entry price?

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  38. All right, Bidding BAC @ 12.32.

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  39. "Orange CADC hat" - That almost scares me, not sure how to interpret it really but my heart skipped a beat I think!

    Price seems to have popped a nickle...

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  40. Entry was 38.80, it hasn't dropped enuff for an add.

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  41. Slow steady climb this morning for CSCO. The 21.20 area will be critical.

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  42. CSCO - Here's some music to go-go with your Cisco Disco:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vwm9kuRUiQQ

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  43. As far back as I can check, more shares of CSCO have already traded today than any other.

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  44. CADC - I'm anticipating a potential run into the Monday earnings announcement, wonder if I'll get it?

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  45. Just bought 400 shares of UNG at $5.66, partially replacing the 800 shares I sold at $5.89. Placing a buy limit order for the remaining 400 shares at $5.40.

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  46. Also, since my sell limit order at $80 for JJS was not hit, I have just "manually" shorted 50 shares at $75.30. Will short more shares once JJS makes a lower high and a lower low.

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  47. Even when WATG was down today, nobody purchased the December $10 puts that I wanted to write for $1.10. So I have just lowered my sell limit to $1.00

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  48. Also, just bought 100 more shares of CSCO at $20.60 (in addition to 200 shares I purchased yesterday AH at $21.30). So my trading rule of always starting a new position VERY small paid off this time -- it allowed me to add some more shares at an even better price as opposed to being all worried about my initial position going down.

    Furthermore, after the current purchase, it will be easier for me to wait until CSCO drops to $20.00 before writing puts on it, without feeling like I have to jump in at $20.50 so as not to miss a deal of the year.

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  49. Damn! I have just saw that I already had 10 short WATG December $10 puts, which were written yesterday morning. So I probably put an order in on Tuesday, which was executed yesterday but I didn't see it... And the order to sell 5 more puts was also just executed, so now I am short a total of 15 WATG December $10 puts. That's a bit more than I wanted, but is still manageable. Let's see how this ends up...

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  50. As for CSCO, I decided to place right now an order to sell 5 January $20 puts for $1, so as to purchase CSCO at $19 ($1 below the 1.5 year low).

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  51. DRYS - may be back in play...

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  52. It seems oxytocin levels may be on the increase this afternoon, I'm rather surprised considering it's only one day following the proposed goring of almost all sacred oxen in the name of deficit reduction.

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  53. I was looking at it too Kyle. I honestly don't get the news.

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  54. I decided to set a sell limit at $4 for both of my remaining November $35 calls on USO (previously, I wanted to sell one at $4 and another at $5).

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  55. Quick check on DRYS. Can't see much of their revenue comes from 2 rigs.

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  56. SGG is down 12% now, so I suppose my instinct of trying to short it last night was correct. :) JJS is already down from the level at which I shorted it. If it goes down a little more, then I'll invoke the rule of not letting a profit turn into a loss and will place a buy to cover stop at the level at which I shorted it ($75.30)

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  57. Not sure what's up, but I just bought SWN on a spike @ 38.26. Day trade only.

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  58. If UNG ends today at the current price or above and then goes up tomorrow, then it will be a third higher low. I don't even need an uptrend now -- as long as THE bottom is in, I can make money scaling in and out of it on all fluctuations. The contango is over now (in fact, there is a small backwardation between January and March futures), so UNG has become a safe vehicle for trading once again.

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  59. Off @ 38.41. Good for some pocket change.

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  60. David- That was a great take on SGG! Good work :)

    SWN- I thought it might be a take over bid.

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  61. ABK - Just a couple of sessions ago I coulda had some after hours the day of BK at $0.21 and today it's trading at $0.52...

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  62. Or is it, ABK doesn't seems to be trading at all now...

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  63. David- Isn't the biggest sugar player imperial sugar or something like that?

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  64. Seems like metals are one of only a handful of gainers today.

    Mark - That dude in the orange cap doesn't seem to be helping me out this afternoon, LOL! I calculate CNBC audience attention spans have an approx duration of 5~7 min.

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  65. ATNI - Still no bottom and very patient sellers are lined up at the exits.

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  66. Imbalances..

    BUY- SWN/C/BAC/JPM

    SELL- CHK.

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