Monday, November 15, 2010

11/15/10 Black Tuesday

How many times have I posted 'Black Tuesday?' I've lost count. I'll keep it up until it plays out.

18 comments:

  1. Yes, a 30 to 40% decline in the U$D may be difficult to achieve as long as Asian trading partners keep buying up the dollar to debase their currency and support their exports?

    How long can that continue, until they decide themselves on their own schedule or until the FED forces them by debasing?

    I prefer the second scenario b/c the FED maintains the upper hand and better control the unwind as necessary?

    ReplyDelete
  2. WFC trading at book and wow, BAC is trading about 1/2 book? Looks cheap, it could be an easy double from here...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Catch you guys at the open. I have a meeting until 8:30 tonight. No...it's NOT at a bar :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Black Tuesday - Even 2nd's getting bullish on the consumer showing up for shop till' ya drop!

    It should be an improvement over last year but not an absolute barn burner.

    This week's jobs data are what I'm looking for at this point. Supposedly they should be improved, hopefully they're not dreadful.

    ReplyDelete
  5. next correction (dip) I vote add gold

    I can't endorse bac - anyone can be a bank. You, I ect.. I think we are moving to a global currency and hopefully, a global banking system tied to gold.

    My crystal ball says Tomorrow we are sideways again, then up before thanksgiving.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I'm really not in favor of a global currency because of the kind of thing we've witnessed in Greece, etc., where one government is fiscally prudent while another isn't.

    The problem as I see it is all currencies don't trade on the free market, it's this pegging stuff that enables trade imbalances.

    ReplyDelete
  7. we have to have real money. not fake fiat dollars printed by the fed.

    now i sound like kaimu. but really he is right on

    ReplyDelete
  8. We had real money going into the great depression and it didn't prevent the financial collapse then, why would it now?

    Real money is money traded on a public exchange, we'll continue experiencing prolonged trade imbalances until all currencies are traded in the free market.

    ReplyDelete
  9. You see, it's this very reason why it's important for each country to have their own currency, and that currency be traded in the free market, so trade imbalances cannot occur.

    A global currency is a form of socialism, where each country has a currency of the same value that's unrelated to the extent of their debt.

    ReplyDelete
  10. The US now has amassed huge amounts of debt but the currency remains relatively strong, why is that? It's because our trading partners have been financing our debt to keep out currency from falling.

    The dollar doesn't deserve to fall because of what we're doing now, it deserves to fall because of the massive trade deficit we've been accumulating for the past 20 years while simultaneously exporting jobs and manufacturing technology.

    Fat dumb and happy is no way to go through life, and that's what we've turned into basically.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I like Kaimu and I'm sure he means well but there are quite a few important subjects he glosses over that should be considered in his thesis. The same holds for Bill, if he were filling in these missing blanks then he might gain more than the faith of a couple dozen people.

    ReplyDelete
  12. i agree fat dumb and happy on Debt and fake money and no real production is what we have become.

    our currency is loaded with fat and we use more fake equations and algorithims to mislead and deceive ma and pa (consumer)

    we all know the game and we are no better than wall street. We have all become in IT for the day trade hoping we can snag ma an pas nest egge

    admit

    ReplyDelete
  13. "TOF -- why do you keep saying that the market is cheap now? Hussman demonstrated convincingly that the market is VERY expensive now, most expensive it has ever been outside of the dot com bubble period and the top of 2007. He showed that the measures that some analysis use to claim the market is cheap have VERY poor track record before the 1980, when the current bond bubble has started (which has mostly likely come to an end now according to Bill Gross). "

    David - I'll take a read of that Hussman post you linked to in your last post. However, while Hussman states that those people claiming the markets are cheap are the same ones with poor track records, isn't it also true that Hussman has been bearish since 1995 more or less? I'd say his track record ain't so good either.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Admit- So you like Animal House too!!

    ReplyDelete
  15. Mark - speaking of Animal House...we had quite a doozy of a first night on my bachelor party...pretty Animal House-esque. One of my friends got kicked out of a "gentleman's club" for being too intoxicated and then we all went back to my hotel room and partied til about 4am, at which point someone thought it was ok to smoke a joint on the balcony outside our room and the cops came, kicked us out of the hotel room and told us if we came back we would be arrested.

    I haven't partied that hard since college days and was hurting for the rest of the trip. We ended up just playing golf and keeping it a little lower key the rest of the weekend. Needless to say I'm still trying to catch up on sleep. I don't miss those single/partying days.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Ha, that's a funny story TOF! I recall staying in a hotel on a golf course in the Phoenix area once. Can't remember the name, it may have been in Scottsdale?

    I spy plenty of red throughout markets tonight... not much green to be found.

    ReplyDelete
  17. "David - I'll take a read of that Hussman post you linked to in your last post. However, while Hussman states that those people claiming the markets are cheap are the same ones with poor track records, isn't it also true that Hussman has been bearish since 1995 more or less? I'd say his track record ain't so good either."

    Hussman's attitude toward equities is based on more things than just valuation. He mentioned himself a number of times (on my memory) that if the market internals (such as market breadth, etc.) improve, then he will be open to removing a large part of his hedges even in this overvalued market. When the market is not just overvalued but is also overbought, overbullish and faces increasing yield pressures, his discipline requires him to be fully hedged. Hussman, as he said himself, never goes short. As for the track record of his valuation metric, his chart since WWII shows that it actually has a great track record in terms of predicting the market return over the next 10 years.

    ReplyDelete
  18. As the current market correction keeps going, I am most confident about scaling into MON, which I believe is near THE bottom and has much more upside from the current level than downside. I have already sold one January $60 put on it for $3.30, and I have just placed a sell limit order for one January $57.50 put on it for $3.50.

    ReplyDelete